Thursday, July 13, 2023 REP-019

KSE-100: Bulls gaining strength

AKD SECURITIES LIMITED
Market View — Technical
The index opened on a positive note and remained bullish throughout the last trading session. The local bourse posted a high of 427pts and
concluded with a gain of 359pts to settle at 45,515pts. The volumes clocked in the last trading session were slightly lower than the previous
trading session. The MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line. The MACD crossed above its signal line seven trading sessions ago.
TECHNICAL VIEW

Since the MACD crossed its moving average the Index has increased 3.68% and has ranged from a high of 45,582 to a low of 43,405. Among
the strength Indicators, RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently trading at 78.23.
The chart formation depicts that the index may find initial support near 45,100. A break below mentioned support can result into further
weakness towards 44,800 and 44,400pts level. Alternatively, the index can face resistance near 45,800pts initially and then head towards
46,100 and 46,500 area. It is recommended to trade with a cautious approach, use trailing stop loss and focus on profit taking.
Stochas tic Os cillator (96.3944) 50

Relative Strength Index (78.2360)

50

KSE100 (45,297.24, 45,582.30, 45,200.35, 45,514.95, +359.160), Parabolic SAR (41,732.85) 46000
45500
45000
44500
44000
43500
43000
AKD Securities Limited

42500
42000
41500
41000
40500
40000
39500

Volum e (206,704,768) 25000

20000
15000
10000
5000
x10000
27 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 26 2 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 10 17 24
March April May June July

Support Level 1 Support Level 2 Support Level 3

45,100 44,800 44,400

Resistance Level 1 Resistance Level 2 Resistance Level 3

45,800 46,100 46,500

Buy on Weakness calls

RSI and Stochastic Indicators
Scrips Buy Target Stop Closing Upper Lower
range Loss lock lock 100 100
80 80
HUBC 79.30 82.50 77.30 79.91 85.90 73.92
60
60
PPL 68.80 71.80 68.00 69.49 74.70 64.28 40
20 40
EPCL 45.50 47.00 45.00 46.07 49.53 42.61
0 20
HUBC PPL EPCL PRL ASTL
PRL 16.80 18.00 16.20 17.15 18.44 15.86
Stochastic RSI (RHS)
ASTL 21.00 22.80 20.20 21.30 22.90 19.70

Sell on Strength calls

RSI and Stochastic Indicators
Scrips Sell Target Stop Closing Upper Lower
range Loss lock lock 100 100
80 80
ANL 7.50 7.00 7.80 7.39 8.39 6.39
60
60
GGGL 7.00 6.40 7.20 6.85 7.85 5.85 40
20 40
SSGC 9.80 9.20 10.00 9.65 10.65 8.65
0 20
SEARL 43.50 39.80 44.50 42.71 45.91 39.51 ANL GGGL SSGC SEARL CPHL
Stochastic RSI (RHS)
CPHL 25.00 23.80 25.50 24.26 26.08 22.44

Kamal Ahmed
kamal.ahmed@akdsl.com 111-253-111 EXT:604
AKD Securities Limited
602, Continental Trade Centre Clifton Block 8, Karachi, Pakistan.
research@akdsl.com
AKD RESEARCH

Synopsis
Symbol Closing Change Change Trading Support Resistance Stop loss
(PKR) % Points Stance S1 S2 S3 PIVOT R1 R2 R3 Below Above
Banks Sector
MCB 128.86 2.23% 2.81 Buy 126.61 124.35 122.66 128.30 130.56 132.25 134.51 124.35 132.25
HBL 79.90 0.71% 0.56 Sell 79.10 78.30 77.45 79.95 80.75 81.60 82.40 78.30 81.60
UBL 134.96 0.41% 0.55 Buy 133.79 132.63 131.22 135.20 136.36 137.77 138.93 132.63 137.77
MEBL 110.47 6.63% 6.87 Buy 106.62 102.78 100.55 108.85 112.69 114.92 118.76 102.78 114.92
NBP 20.90 0.00 -0.03 Buy 20.57 20.23 19.92 20.88 21.22 21.53 21.87 20.23 21.53
BAFL 35.27 -0.17% -0.06 Sell 34.62 33.96 33.28 35.30 35.96 36.64 37.30 33.96 36.64
BOP 3.74 0.04 0.14 Buy 3.63 3.51 3.43 3.71 3.83 3.91 4.03 3.51 3.91
BIPL 18.44 1.49% 0.27 Buy 18.10 17.77 17.53 18.34 18.67 18.91 19.24 17.77 18.91
Oil & Gas Exploration
OGDC 87.10 1.78% 1.52 Buy 85.90 84.69 83.78 86.81 88.02 88.93 90.14 84.69 88.93
PPL 69.49 2.19% 1.49 Buy 68.55 67.61 66.81 69.35 70.29 71.09 72.03 67.61 71.09
MARI 1,569.54 0.00% 0.04 Sell 1,556.37 1,543.20 1,526.39 1,573.18 1,586.35 1,603.16 1,616.33 1,543.20 1,603.16
POL 422.68 0.38% 1.62 Buy 419.89 417.09 414.69 422.29 425.09 427.49 430.29 417.09 427.49
Fertilizer
ENGRO 266.96 -0.18% -0.47 Buy 265.08 263.21 261.02 267.27 269.14 271.33 273.20 263.21 271.33
FFC 99.66 0.09% 0.09 Buy 99.18 98.69 98.26 99.61 100.10 100.53 101.02 98.69 100.53
EFERT 83.12 -0.19% -0.16 Buy 82.54 81.97 81.43 83.08 83.65 84.19 84.76 81.97 84.19
FATIMA 28.78 0.03% 0.01 Sell 28.66 28.53 28.39 28.80 28.93 29.07 29.20 28.53 29.07
FFBL 14.34 2.50% 0.35 Buy 13.91 13.48 13.21 14.18 14.61 14.88 15.31 13.48 14.88
Cement
LUCK 578.65 1.96% 11.15 Buy 570.77 562.89 557.78 575.88 583.76 588.87 596.75 562.89 588.87
DGKC 57.99 1.03% 0.59 Buy 57.19 56.40 55.89 57.70 58.49 59.00 59.79 56.40 59.00
MLCF 32.12 0.63% 0.20 Sell 31.65 31.18 30.48 32.35 32.82 33.52 33.99 31.18 33.52
KOHC 185.52 -1.72% -3.25 Sell 182.73 179.94 176.88 185.79 188.58 191.64 194.43 179.94 191.64
FCCL 12.82 -2.06% -0.27 Sell 12.61 12.41 12.06 12.96 13.16 13.51 13.71 12.41 13.51
CHCC 133.36 -2.11% -2.87 Sell 131.37 129.39 125.77 134.99 136.97 140.59 142.57 129.39 140.59
PIOC 90.36 -0.40% -0.36 Sell 89.41 88.45 86.91 90.95 91.91 93.45 94.41 88.45 93.45
ACPL 97.28 0.79% 0.76 Buy 95.22 93.16 91.82 96.56 98.62 99.96 102.02 93.16 99.96
Food & Personal Care Products
FFL 6.65 -1.34% -0.09 Sell 6.54 6.42 6.24 6.72 6.84 7.02 7.14 6.42 7.02
TOMCL 22.36 -0.45% -0.10 Sell 22.17 21.99 21.72 22.44 22.62 22.89 23.07 21.99 22.89
TREET 19.63 -0.56% -0.11 Buy 19.25 18.86 18.52 19.59 19.98 20.32 20.71 18.86 20.32
Chemicals
EPCL 46.07 1.70% 0.77 Buy 45.68 45.30 44.76 46.22 46.60 47.14 47.52 45.30 47.14
LOTCHEM 28.96 -1.30% -0.38 Sell 28.58 28.20 27.65 29.13 29.51 30.06 30.44 28.20 30.06
DOL 26.01 1.29% 0.33 Sell 25.63 25.26 24.83 26.06 26.43 26.86 27.23 25.26 26.86
Automobile Assemblers
INDU 979.78 -0.13% -1.28 Sell 967.19 954.59 938.19 983.59 996.19 1,012.59 1,025.19 954.59 1,012.59
HCAR 116.10 0.18% 0.21 Sell 113.75 111.40 108.80 116.35 118.70 121.30 123.65 111.40 121.30
PSMC 122.76 0.39% 0.48 Sell 119.44 116.12 111.84 123.72 127.04 131.32 134.64 116.12 131.32
Textiles
GATM 18.93 0.00% 0.00 Sell 18.73 18.54 18.31 18.96 19.15 19.38 19.57 18.54 19.38
NCL 22.98 2.09% 0.47 Buy 22.61 22.24 21.97 22.88 23.25 23.52 23.89 22.24 23.52
NML 63.13 1.09% 0.68 Buy 61.69 60.26 59.00 62.95 64.38 65.64 67.07 60.26 65.64
Power Generation & Distribution
HUBC 79.91 3.15% 2.44 Buy 78.11 76.30 75.36 79.05 80.86 81.80 83.61 76.30 81.80
NPL 20.74 4.69% 0.93 Buy 19.87 19.00 18.44 20.43 21.30 21.86 22.73 19.00 21.86
NCPL 18.77 2.18% 0.40 Buy 18.25 17.73 17.23 18.75 19.27 19.77 20.29 17.73 19.77
Oil & Gas Marketing
PSO 124.22 -0.17% -0.21 Buy 122.89 121.55 120.11 124.33 125.67 127.11 128.45 121.55 127.11
SNGP 44.27 -0.76% -0.34 Sell 43.89 43.51 42.92 44.48 44.86 45.45 45.83 43.51 45.45
SSGC 9.65 -0.82% -0.08 Sell 9.55 9.45 9.30 9.70 9.80 9.95 10.05 9.45 9.95
APL 309.60 0.52% 1.60 Sell 307.73 305.87 303.73 309.87 311.73 313.87 315.73 305.87 313.87
Technology & Communication
WTL 1.29 2.38% 0.03 Sell 1.26 1.22 1.19 1.29 1.33 1.36 1.40 1.22 1.36
NETSOL 89.55 -2.15% -1.97 Sell 88.56 87.58 85.89 90.25 91.23 92.92 93.90 87.58 92.92
AVN 53.65 -2.54% -1.40 Sell 53.00 52.35 51.19 54.16 54.81 55.97 56.62 52.35 55.97
TRG 104.36 -1.53% -1.62 Buy 103.18 102.01 100.40 104.79 105.96 107.57 108.74 102.01 107.57
HUMNL 6.15 0.16% 0.01 Sell 6.05 5.96 5.79 6.22 6.31 6.48 6.57 5.96 6.48
SYS 457.20 0.15% 0.68 Buy 454.30 451.40 448.80 456.90 459.80 462.40 465.30 451.40 462.40
Engineering
ISL 50.01 -1.21% -0.61 Sell 49.31 48.61 47.52 50.40 51.10 52.19 52.89 48.61 52.19
MUGHAL 57.15 -2.72% -1.60 Sell 56.10 55.06 53.23 57.93 58.97 60.80 61.84 55.06 60.80
ASTL 21.30 7.52% 1.49 Buy 19.97 18.63 17.97 20.63 21.97 22.63 23.97 18.63 22.63
ASL 6.80 6.75% 0.43 Buy 6.35 5.89 5.57 6.67 7.13 7.45 7.91 5.89 7.45
Refinery
PRL 17.15 1.18% 0.20 Buy 16.91 16.68 16.35 17.24 17.47 17.80 18.03 16.68 17.80
ATRL 210.41 -0.85% -1.80 Buy 208.37 206.33 203.64 211.06 213.10 215.79 217.83 206.33 215.79
NRL 216.04 -0.61% -1.32 Buy 213.56 211.08 208.16 216.48 218.96 221.88 224.36 211.08 221.88

Source: PSX & AKD Research

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AKD RESEARCH
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Support: Support is the level at which the stock is likely to see increased interest from buyers. The buying support will prevent the stock from
falling further.

Resistance: Resistance is the level at which the stock is likely to see increased interest from sellers. The selling pressure will preven t the
stock from rising further.

RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100. It compares the extent of the stock's recent price
movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought, and below 30 could be consid-
ered oversold. Generally, if the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. Conversely, if the RSI of a stock rises above 30 it is considered bullish.
The RSI used is of 14 days.

Bollinger Bands: A Bollinger Band, developed by famous technical trader John Bollinger, is plotted two standard deviations away from a sim-
ple moving average. BB highly popular technical analysis technique. Many traders believe the closer the prices move to the upper band, the
more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.

MACD: MACD shows the relationship between a longer period moving average and a short period Moving average of a stock’s price. Gener-
ally, the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 12-day EMA are used to calculate MACD.

EMA: Exponential moving average (EMA) is the weighted average of the prices of a given security where higher weights are given to recent
data points. EMA is used to analyze the trend of a stock.

SMA: A simple moving average (SMA) is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
The parabolic SAR: is a technical indicator used to determine the price direction of an asset, as well as draw attention to when the price di-
rection is changing. Sometimes known as the "stop and reversal system," the parabolic SAR was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., creator of
the relative strength index (RSI).

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To arrive at our period end target prices, AKDS uses New Rating Definitions
Different valuation techniques (where applicable) including: Buy > 30% expected total return (Rf: 21% + Rp: 9%)
 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF, DDM) Neutral > 21% to < 30% expected total return
 Relative Valuation (P/E, P/B, P/S etc.) Sell < 21% expected total return (Rf: 21%)
 Equity & Asset return based methodologies (EVA, Residual In-
come etc.)

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AKD RESEARCH
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