International Energy Outlook 2021

with projections to 2050 Chart library

October 6, 2021
#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo
 International Energy Outlook 2021
with projections to 2050

October 2021

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Office of Energy Analysis
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585

This publication is online at:

https://www.eia.gov/ieo

This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the
U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or
employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of
the Department of Energy or other federal agencies.

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 2
Table of contents
slide number
Macroeconomics and assumptions 4
Consumption 10
Industrial 18
Buildings 29
Transportation 44
Electricity 59
Coal 101
Petroleum and other liquids 111
Natural gas 123
Emissions 135
References 147

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 3
Macroeconomics and
assumptions
OECD and non-OECD GDP and energy consumption
World GDP Energy consumption
trillion 2015 dollars, purchasing power parity (PPP) quadrillion British thermal units

$400 800
High history projections non-OECD High
history projections
$350 Economic 700 Economic
Growth Growth
$300 Reference 600 Reference
non-OECD Low Low
$250 500 Economic
Economic
Growth Growth
$200 400
High High
$150 Economic 300 Economic
Growth Growth
$100 Reference 200 Reference
OECD Low
Low
$50 Economic 100 Economic
OECD
Growth Growth
$0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 5
World oil prices and energy consumption
World oil prices World energy consumption
2020 dollars per barrel quadrillion British thermal units
$200 800
history projections history projections High
$175 700 Oil Price

$150 600 Reference

non-OECD Low
High Oil Price
$125 500 Oil Price
Reference 400
$100 High
OECD Oil Price
$75 300 Reference
Low Oil Price Low
$50 200
Oil Price
$25 100

$0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 6
World petroleum and other liquid fuels production and
consumption
World petroleum and other liquid fuels production World petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption
million barrels per day million barrels per day
Reference High Oil Low Oil
case Price case Price case
100
140 140 history projections
90 High Oil Price
120 120 80
OPEC crude non-OECD Reference
100 100 oil and lease 70 Low Oil Price
condensate
non-OPEC
60
80 80 High Oil Price
crude oil and 50 OECD
Reference
60 60 lease 40 Low Oil Price
condensate
40 40 natural gas 30
plant liquids 20
20 20 and other
10
liquid fuels
0 0 0
2020 2050 2050 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 7
Economic growth and purchasing power
World GDP World per capita GDP
trillion 2015 dollars, purchasing power parity (PPP) thousand 2015 dollars per person, purchasing power parity (PPP)
$250 $70
history projections history projections OECD
non-OECD $60
$200
$50
$150
$40
OECD non-
$100 $30
OECD
$20
$50
$10

$0 $0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2030 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 8
GDP growth rates by region
Average annual percentage change in GDP, Average annual percentage change in GDP,
OECD non-OECD
2020–2050 2020–2050

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 9
Consumption
World energy consumption
World energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units
1,000
history projections

800

600
non-OECD
400

200 OECD

0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 11
World energy consumption by sector and fuel
End-use energy consumption by sector, world End-use energy consumption by fuel, world
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
400 400
history projections industrial history projections
350 350

300 300 petroleum

and other
250 250 liquids

200 200

150 transportation 150 natural gas

electricity
100 residential 100 coal
50 commercial 50 renewables
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 12
Primary energy consumption by energy source
Primary energy consumption by energy source, world Share of primary energy consumption by source, world
quadrillion British thermal units percentage
history projections
300 petroleum 100%
history projections
and other 90%
liquids1 renewables
250
renewables 80%
70%
200 natural gas coal
coal 60%
150 50% petroleum
40% and other
100 liquids
30%

50 20%
natural gas
nuclear 10%
0 nuclear
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2050
1 includes biofuels

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 13
Energy consumption by fuel
Delivered energy consumption by fuel, OECD Delivered energy consumption by fuel, non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
500 500
history projections history projections
renewables
400 400
electricity
300 300
coal

200 200 natural gas

100 100 liquids

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 14
Energy consumption by end-use sector
Energy consumption by sector, OECD Energy consumption by sector, non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

500 500
history projections history projections
residential
400 400
commercial
transportation
300 300

200 residential 200

commercial
industrial
100 transportation
100

industrial
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 15
Energy consumption by region
OECD energy consumption by region Non-OECD energy consumption by region
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

700 700
history projections history projections
600 600

500 500

400 Asia
400

300 300
Asia Middle East
200 200 Africa
Americas Americas
100 100 Europe and
Europe Eurasia
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 16
Economic growth and electricity use
GDP, select regions World electricity use, select regions
trillion 2015 dollars quadrillion British thermal units
$200 1,000
history projections history projections
$175 900
800
$150
non-OECD 700
$125 non-OECD
600
$100 500
OECD
$75 400
China OECD
300
$50
200
$25 China
100
$0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 17
Industrial
Industrial economic growth and energy use
Industrial gross output growth Industrial energy consumption
year-over-year percentage quadrillion British thermal units
10% 400
history projections history projections
8% 350

6% 300

4% 250
non-OECD
2% 200
OECD non-OECD
0% 150

-2% 100

-4% 50 OECD
-6% 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 19
Global shares of industrial economic output
Share of energy-intensive manufacturing gross output by region
percentage
history projections
100%
90% rest of world
80%
70%
60% OECD Europe

50% India
40%
30% China
20%
10% Other non-OECD
Asia
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 20
Industrial energy use and economic growth by industry type
Energy consumption by industry, world Gross output by sector, world
quadrillion British thermal units trillion 2015 dollars, purchasing power parity (PPP)
400 $700
history projections history projections
350 $600
services
300 (non-industrial
$500
sector)
250
energy intensive $400
200 manufacturing
$300
150 non-energy- energy-intensive
intensive manufacturing
$200
100 manufacturing non-energy-
intensive
50 $100
non- manufacturing
manufacturing non-manufacturing
0 $0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 21
Share of industrial economic output by industry type
Shares of gross economic output by sector, Shares of gross economic output by sector,
OECD non-OECD
percentage percentage
history projections history projections
100% 100%
90% 90% services
80% 80%
70% 70%
60% 60%
non-
50% 50% manufacturing
40% 40% non-energy-
30% intensive
30%
manufacturing
20% 20% energy-
10% 10% intensive
0% 0% manufacturing
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 22
Industrial energy consumption by source
Industrial sector energy consumption by source, Industrial sector energy consumption by source,
OECD non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
300 300
history projections history projections
250 250 renewables

natural gas
200 200

150 150 electricity

liquids
100 100

50 50 coal

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 23
Industrial coal consumption
Industrial coal consumption Industrial energy consumption, India
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
90 90
history projections history projections
80 80
rest of
70 world 70
60 60
India
50 50 coal

40 40
30 China 30
liquid fuels
20 20 natural gas
Other
10 renewables
non-OECD 10
electricity
0 Asia 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 24
Industrial energy consumption by region
Industrial energy consumption, OECD Industrial energy consumption, non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

300 300
history projections history projections
250 250

200 China
200
India
150 150
Other Asia
100 Asia 100 Middle East
Africa
50 Americas Americas
50
Europe
Europe and Eurasia
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 25
Motor vehicle and non ferrous metals production energy use by
fuel, non-OECD
Energy consumption, non-OECD motor vehicle Energy consumption, non-OECD nonferrous metals
production production
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
3.0 6 history projections
history projections

2.5 5
electricity

2.0 4

1.5 3

1.0 2

0.5 1 coal
natural gas
0.0 0 liquid fuels
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 26
Changes in industrial energy intensity
Regional industrial energy intensity
index, 2020 = 1.0
1.2
OECD maximum
1.0 non-OECD
maximum
OECD average
0.8
OECD minimum
non-OECD average
0.6 non-OECD
minimum
0.4

0.2

0.0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Note: Maximum and minimum refers to the highest or lowest IEO2021 region within or outside the OECD

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 27
Energy consumption by industry type
Energy consumption by industry type, OECD Energy consumption by industry type, non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

300 300
history projections history projections
250 250

200 200 energy-

intensive
150 150 manufacturing

non-energy-
100 100
intensive
manufacturing
50 50
non-
0 0 manufacturing
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 28
Buildings
Residential and commercial buildings energy consumption
Building sector energy consumption, OECD Building sector energy consumption, non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
100 100
history projections history projections

80 80

residential
60 60

40 40

20 20
commercial

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 30
Buildings energy use
Buildings delivered energy Residential delivered energy Commercial delivered energy
consumption consumption consumption
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

100 100 100

history projections history projections history projections
non-OECD 80
80 80

non-OECD
60 60 60

40 OECD
40 40
OECD

20 20 OECD 20
non-OECD
0 0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 31
Residential and commercial buildings change in energy use since
2019
Change in buildings energy use by sector and region
quadrillion British thermal units (difference from 2019 values)

8
history projections

6 non-OECD residential

4
non-OECD commercial

OECD commercial
0
OECD residential

-2
2019 2025 2030

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 32
Household income by region
Household income per capita
thousand 2015 dollars per person, purchasing power parity (PPP)
$50
OECD Americas

$40 OECD Average

OECD Europe
$30 OECD Asia

non-OECD Europe
$20 non-OECD Asia

non-OECD Average
$10 non-OECD Americas
Middle East
Africa
$0
2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 33
Residential energy consumption by fuel
Residential sector energy consumption by fuel, Residential sector energy consumption by fuel,
OECD non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
70 70
history projections history projections
60 60
electricity
50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20 natural gas

10 10 liquid fuels
renewables
0 0 coal
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 34
Commercial buildings energy consumption by fuel
Commercial sector energy consumption by fuel, Commercial sector energy consumption by fuel,
OECD non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
30 30
history projections history projections
25 25

20 20 electricity

15 15

10 10
natural gas
5 5 liquid fuels
coal
0 0 renewables
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 35
Shares of residential and commercial energy consumption by fuel
Buildings sector energy consumption by fuel, Buildings sector energy consumption by fuel,
OECD non-OECD
percentage percentage
history projections history projections
100% 100% renewables
90% 90% coal
liquid fuels
80% 80%
70% 70% natural gas
60% 60%
50% 50% commercial
40% 40% electricity
30% 30%
20% 20% residential
10% 10% electricity
0% 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 36
Buildings electricity consumption
Buildings delivered electricity use Residential delivered electricity use Commercial delivered electricity use
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

50 50 50
history projections history projections history projections

40 40 40

non-OECD
30 30 30
non-OECD

OECD 20
20 20
OECD OECD

10 10 10
non-OECD

0 0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 37
 Residential buildings energy consumption
Residential energy consumption per person, Residential energy consumption per person,
OECD non-OECD
million British thermal units per person million British thermal units per person

2020 2020
OECD non-OECD
2050 2050
Canada Russia
Other Europe and Eurasia
United States
Middle East
OECD Europe China
Australia and New Zealand Other Americas
Brazil
South Korea
Other Asia
Japan
India
Mexico and Other Americas Africa

0 20 40 60 0 20 40 60

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 38
 Commercial buildings energy consumption
Commercial energy consumption per person, Commercial energy consumption per person,
OECD non-OECD
million British thermal units per person million British thermal units per person

2020 2020
OECD non-OECD
2050 2050
Canada Russia
Other Europe and Eurasia
United States
Middle East
OECD Europe China
Australia and New Zealand Other Americas
Brazil
South Korea
Other Asia
Japan India
Mexico and Other Americas Africa

0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 39
Residential energy use by region
OECD residential energy consumption Non-OECD residential energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
70 70
history projections history projections
60 60

50 50 China

40 40
India
30 30
Asia Other Asia
20 20 Middle East
Americas Africa
10 10 Americas
Europe Europe
0 0 and Eurasia
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 40
Commercial energy use by region
OECD commercial energy consumption Non-OECD commercial energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

30 30
history projections history projections

25 25
Asia
20 20 China
Americas
India
15 15
Other Asia
10 10 Middle East
Africa
Europe
5 5 Americas
and
Europe
Eurasia
and Eurasia
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 41
OECD energy use by building type
Residential delivered electricity consumption Commercial delivered electricity consumption
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

OECD OECD

United States United States

OECD Europe OECD Europe

Japan 2020 Japan 2020

2050 2050
Canada Canada

Mexico and Other Americas Mexico and Other Americas

Australia and New Zealand Australia and New Zealand

South Korea South Korea

0 5 10 15 0 5 10 15

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 42
Non-OECD energy use by building type
Residential delivered electricity consumption Commercial delivered electricity consumption
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

Total non-OECD Total non-OECD

all others all others

India 2020 India 2020

2050 2050

China China

Africa Africa

0 10 20 30 40 0 5 10 15 20

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 43
Transportation

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo
Global transportation energy consumption
Transportation energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units

100
history projections non-OECD

80

60 OECD

40

20

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 45
Transportation energy consumption by region
OECD transportation energy consumption Non-OECD transportation energy consumption
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
120 120
history projections history projections
100 100

80 China
80
India
60 Asia 60
Other Asia
40 Americas 40 Middle East
Africa
20 20 Americas
Europe
Europe
and Eurasia
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 46
Transportation energy consumption by fuel type
Transportation energy consumption, Transportation energy consumption,
OECD non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
120 120
history projections history projections

100 100 other liquids

electricity
natural gas
80 80
motor
60 60 gasoline

jet fuel
40 40 liquefied
petroleum gas
20 20 diesel
residual
0 0 fuel oil
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 47
 Transportation energy consumption by fuel type
Transportation energy consumption, OECD Transportation energy consumption, non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

other liquids other liquids

liquefied petroleum gas liquefied petroleum gas

electricity 2020 electricity 2020

2050 2050
natural gas natural gas

residual fuel oil residual fuel oil

jet fuel jet fuel

distillate fuel oil and biodiesel distillate fuel oil and biodiesel

motor gasoline and E85 motor gasoline and E85

0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 48
Transportation energy consumption by type
Transportation sector energy consumption, Transportation sector energy consumption,
OECD non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
120 120
history projections history projections
100 100
passenger
80 80

60 60

40 40
freight
20 20

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 49
Passenger vehicle travel by region
Passenger vehicle travel, select regions
billion passenger miles traveled

16
history projections
14 China
India
12
United States
10 Other non-OECD Asia
Africa
8
OECD Europe
6

4
Middle East
2

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 50
Global light-duty vehicle stock by fuel type
Light-duty vehicle stock, OECD Light-duty vehicle stock, non-OECD
billions of vehicles billions of vehicles
1.8 1.8
history projections history projections
1.6 1.6
1.4 1.4 electric
plug-in
1.2 1.2
hybrid
1.0 1.0 natural gas
diesel
0.8 0.8 motor
0.6 0.6 gasoline

0.4 0.4 liquefied

0.2 0.2 petroleum
gas
0.0 0.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 51
Passenger travel demand, energy use, and energy intensity
Passenger travel demand Passenger travel energy use Passenger travel energy intensity
trillion passenger-miles quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units per
passenger-mile
90 60 1,200 history
history projections history projections projections
80
50 1,000
70
non-OECD non-OECD
60 40 800
non-OECD OECD
50 OECD
30 600
40
30 20 400
OECD
20
10 200
10
0 0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 52
Passenger travel demand by mode
Passenger travel demand by mode, OECD Passenger travel demand by mode, non-OECD
trillion passenger-miles trillion passenger-miles
60 60 history projections
history projections
rail
50 50

40 40 light duty
vehicles

30 30

buses
20 20
air
10 10 two- or three-
wheeled
vehicles
0 0
2019 2020 2050 2019 2020 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 53
Passenger transportation energy consumption by mode
Passenger transportation energy consumption, Passenger transportation energy consumption,
OECD non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
70 70
history projections history projections
60 60
light-duty
50 50 vehicles

40 40

30 30 air
two- or
20 20 three-
wheeled
10 10 vehicles
rail
0 buses
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 54
Light-duty passenger vehicle stock by technology
Light-duty passenger vehicle stock
billions of passenger vehicles

total passenger stock conventional stock electric stock

1.5 1.5 1.5
history projections history projections history projections

1.2 1.2 1.2

non-OECD
non-OECD
0.9 0.9 0.9
OECD
OECD

0.6 0.6 0.6

non-OECD
0.3 0.3 0.3

OECD
0 0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Note: Electric stock includes all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 55
Passenger air travel, efficiency, and jet fuel consumption
Passenger air travel, efficiency, and jet fuel energy Passenger air travel, efficiency, and jet fuel energy
consumption, OECD consumption, non-OECD
index, 2019 = 1.0 index, 2019 = 1.0
3.5 3.5
history projections history projections
3.0 3.0 air travel

2.5 2.5

2.0 jet fuel

2.0 air travel
consumption
jet fuel
1.5 consumption 1.5 air travel
air travel efficiency
1.0 efficiency 1.0

0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 56
Passenger air travel by region
Passenger air travel, select regions
trillion passenger–miles traveled
16
history projections
14 China
India
12
United States
10 Other Asia
8 Africa
OECD Europe
6

4
Middle East
2

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 57
Freight transportation energy consumption by mode
Freight transportation energy consumption, Freight transportation energy consumption,
OECD non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
45 45
history projections history projections
40 40
35 35 heavy
heavy truck
30 30 medium
heavy truck
25 25
light
20 20 heavy truck
pipeline
15 15 international
10 10 marine
domestic
5 5 marine
0 0 rail
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 58
Electricity
World net electricity generation by source
World net electricity generation by source World net electricity generation by source
trillion kilowatthours trillion kilowatthours
60 12
history projections history projections
50 solar
10

40 other coal
8
wind natural gas
wind
30 solar 6
hydroelectric
20 hydroelectric 4
nuclear nuclear
10 natural gas
2
coal other
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 60
World net electricity generation shares by fuel
World net electricity generation by source Share of net electricity generation
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
50 100%
history projections renewables
90%
40 80%
70%
30 60%
50%
20 40%
natural gas
30%
10 20% coal
10% nuclear
liquid fuels
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 61
World net electricity generation from renewables
World net electricity generation from renewables Share of renewable energy
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
25 100%
history projections other
90% geothermal
20 80%
solar
70%
15 60%
50%
wind
10 40%
30%
5 20%
hydroelectric
10%
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 62
World net electricity generation by region and electricity use by
sector
OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation World electricity use by sector
trillion kilowatthours quadrillion British thermal units
30 60
history projections non-OECD history projections
industrial
25 50
residential
20 40

OECD commercial
15 30

10 20

transportation
5 10

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 63
Electricity generation in Reference, High Economic Growth, and
Low Economic Growth cases
OECD electricity generation Non-OECD electricity generation
trillion kilowatthours trillion kilowatthours
40 40 High
history projections history projections Economic
Growth

30 30
Reference

Low
20 20 Economic
Growth

10 10

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 64
Electricity generation growth rate in Reference, High Economic
Growth, and Low Economic Growth cases
OECD electricity generation growth rate Non-OECD electricity generation growth rate
3-year average, percentage 3-year average, percentage
7% 7%
history projections history projections
6% 6%
5% 5%
4% 4%
High
3% High 3% Economic
Economic Growth
2% Growth 2% Reference
1% Reference 1% Low
Low Economic
0% Economic 0% Growth
Growth
-1% -1%
-2% -2%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 65
Electricity generation change from 2020, by type
OECD electricity generation change from 2020, by Non-OECD electricity generation change from 2020, by
type type
trillion kilowatthours trillion kilowatthours
14 14
non-
12 12 renewables
10 10
renewables
8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0

-2 -2
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 66
Total electricity consumption by sector
Total electricity consumption by sector, Total electricity consumption by sector,
OECD non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
100 100 history projections
history projections history projections

80 80
residential

60 60
commercial

40 residential 40
industrial
commercial
20 20
industrial
transportation transportation
0 0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 67
United States net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, United States Share of net electricity generation, United States
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
6 100%
history projections other
90% solar
5
80%
wind
70%
4
60% hydroelectric
nuclear
3 50%
40%
2 natural gas
30%
20%
1
10% coal

0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 68
Canada net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, Canada Share of net electricity generation, Canada
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
1.0 100% other
history projections solar
0.9 90%
wind
0.8 80%
0.7 70%
0.6 60%
hydroelectric
0.5 50%
0.4 40%
0.3 30%
nuclear
0.2 20%
natural gas
0.1 10%
coal
0.0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 69
Mexico and other OECD Americas net electricity generation by
source
Net electricity generation by source, Mexico and Share of net electricity generation, Mexico and other
other OECD Americas OECD Americas
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
0.9 100% other
history projections
90% solar
0.8
0.7 80%
70%
0.6 wind
60%
0.5
50% hydroelectric
0.4
40% nuclear
0.3 30%
0.2 natural gas
20%
0.1 10%
coal
0.0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 70
Japan net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, Japan Share of net electricity generation, Japan
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
1.2 100% other
history projections solar
90%
1.0
80%
70% wind
0.8
60%
hydroelectric
0.6 50% nuclear
40%
0.4 30% natural gas
20%
0.2
10% coal
0.0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 71
South Korea net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, South Korea Share of net electricity generation, South Korea
trillion kilowatthours percentage
0.8 history projections
history projections 100% other
0.7 90% solar

0.6 80% wind

70%
0.5 hydroelectric
60%
0.4 50% nuclear

0.3 40%
natural gas
30%
0.2
20%
0.1 coal
10%
0.0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 72
Australia and New Zealand net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, Australia and Share of net electricity generation, Australia and New
New Zealand Zealand
trillion kilowatthours percentage
0.50 history projections
history projections 100%
0.45 other
90% solar
0.40
80%
0.35
70%
0.30
60%
0.25 wind
50%
0.20 40%
0.15 30% hydroelectric
0.10 20% nuclear
0.05 10% natural gas
coal
0.00 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 73
OECD Europe net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, OECD Europe Share of net electricity generation, OECD Europe
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
5 100%
history projections other
90% solar
4 80%
70%
wind
3 60%
50%
2 40%
30% hydroelectric
nuclear
1 20%
natural gas
10%
coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 74
Russia net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, Russia Share of net electricity generation, Russia
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
1.4 100% other
history projections
90% solar
1.2 wind
80%
hydroelectric
1.0 70% nuclear
60%
0.8
50%
0.6 40% natural gas

0.4 30%
20%
0.2
10%
coal
0.0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 75
Other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia net electricity generation
by source
Net electricity generation by source, Other non-OECD Share of net electricity generation, Other non-OECD
Europe and Eurasia Europe and Eurasia
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
1.2 100% other
history projections 90% solar
1.0 80% wind
70%
0.8 hydroelectric
60%
50% nuclear
0.6
40%
0.4 30% natural gas
20%
0.2 coal
10%
0.0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 76
India net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, India Share of net electricity generation, India
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
7 100%
history projections other
90%
6
80% solar
5 70%
60%
4
50%
3 40% wind
2 30%
hydroelectric
20% nuclear
1 natural gas
10%
coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 77
China net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, China Share of net electricity generation, China
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
12 100% other
history projections
90%
10
80% solar

8 70%
wind
60%
6 50% hydroelectric
nuclear
40%
4 natural gas
30%
20%
2 coal
10%
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 78
Other non-OECD Asia net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, Other non- Share of net electricity generation, Other non-
OECD Asia OECD Asia
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
4.0 100% other
history projections
90% solar
3.5
80% wind
3.0
70%
2.5 hydroelectric
60% nuclear
2.0 50% natural gas
40%
1.5 coal
30%
1.0
20%
0.5 10%
0.0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 79
Middle East net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, Middle East Share of net electricity generation, Middle East
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
1.8 100%
history projections other
1.6 90%

1.4 80% solar

70% wind
1.2
60% hydroelectric
1.0 nuclear
50%
0.8
40%
0.6 natural gas
30%
0.4 20%
0.2 10%
coal
0.0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 80
Africa net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, Africa Share of net electricity generation, Africa
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
2.0 100%
history projections other
1.8 90%
1.6 80% solar

1.4 70%
wind
1.2 60%
1.0 50% hydroelectric
0.8 40% nuclear

0.6 30% natural gas

0.4 20%
0.2 10%
coal
0.0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 81
Brazil net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, Brazil Share of net electricity generation, Brazil
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
0.9 100%
history projections other
0.8 90% solar

0.7 80%
70% wind
0.6
60%
0.5
50%
0.4
40% hydroelectric
0.3 30%
0.2 20% nuclear
0.1 10% natural gas
coal
0.0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 82
Other non-OECD Americas net electricity generation by source
Net electricity generation by source, Other non- Share of net electricity generation, Other non-OECD
OECD Americas Americas
trillion kilowatthours percentage
history projections
0.8 100% other
history projections
90% solar
0.7
80%
0.6
70% wind
0.5 60%
0.4 50%
40% hydroelectric
0.3
30%
0.2 nuclear
20% natural gas
0.1 10%
coal
0.0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 83
United States electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
United States United States
gigawatts percentage
history projections
2,000 100% battery storage
history projections 90% other
solar
80%
1,500
70%
60% wind
hydroelectric
1,000 50%
nuclear
40%
30% natural gas
500
20%
10%
coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 84
Canada electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
Canada Canada
gigawatts percentage
history projections
250 100% other
history projections solar
90%
wind
200 80%
70%
150 60%
50% hydroelectric
100 40%
30% nuclear
50 20%
natural gas
10%
coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 85
Mexico and other OECD Americas electric generating capacity
by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
Mexico and other OECD Americas Mexico and other OECD Americas
gigawatts percentage
history projections
250 100% other
history projections solar
90%
200 80%
70%
150 60%
wind
50%
100 40% hydroelectric
nuclear
30%
50 20% natural gas
10%
coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 86
OECD Europe electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
OECD Europe OECD Europe
gigawatts percentage
history projections
2,500 100% battery storage
history projections
90% other
2,000 80%
solar
70%
1,500 60%
wind
50%
1,000 40%
30% hydroelectric
500 20% nuclear
10% natural gas
coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 87
Japan electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
Japan Japan
gigawatts percentage
history projections
350 100% other
history projections solar
90%
300
80%
250 70%
60% wind
200
50% hydroelectric
150 40% nuclear
100 30%
natural gas
20%
50
10% coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 88
South Korea electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
South Korea South Korea
gigawatts percentage
history projections
250 100% other
history projections solar
90%
200 80%
70%
60% wind
150
50% hydroelectric
100 40% nuclear
30%
natural gas
50 20%
10% coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 89
Australia and New Zealand electric generating capacity by
source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
Australia and New Zealand Australia and New Zealand
gigawatts percentage
history projections
250 100% battery storage
history projections other
90%
200 80% solar
70%
150 60%
50%
100 40% wind
30%
hydroelectric
50 20%
natural gas
10%
coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 90
Russia electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
Russia Russia
gigawatts percentage
history projections
350 100% other
history projections solar
90%
300 wind
80%
hydroelectric
250 70%
nuclear
60%
200
50%
150 40%
natural gas
100 30%
20%
50
10%
coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 91
Other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia electric generating
capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
Other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
gigawatts percentage
history projections
350 100% other
history projections
90%
300 solar
80%
250 70%
wind
60%
200
50% hydroelectric
150 40% nuclear
100 30%
natural gas
20%
50
10% coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 92
China electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
China China
gigawatts percentage
history projections
4,500 100%
history projections battery storage
4,000 90% other
80%
3,500
solar
70%
3,000
60%
2,500 wind
50%
2,000 hydroelectric
40% nuclear
1,500 30% natural gas
1,000 20%
coal
500 10%
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 93
India electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
India India
gigawatts percentage
history projections
3,000 100%
history projections battery storage
90%
other
2,500 80%
70%
2,000 solar
60%
1,500 50%
40%
1,000 wind
30%
hydroelectric
20% nuclear
500
10% natural gas
coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 94
Other non-OECD Asia electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
Other non-OECD Asia Other non-OECD Asia
gigawatts percentage
history projections
1,000 100% other
history projections
900 90%
solar
800 80%
700 70%
wind
600 60%
hydroelectric
500 50%
nuclear
400 40% natural gas
300 30%
coal
200 20%
100 10%
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 95
Middle East electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
Middle East Middle East
gigawatts percentage
history projections
700 100% other
history projections 90%
600
80%
solar
500 70%
60% wind
400 hydroelectric
50%
nuclear
300 40%
200 30% natural gas
20%
100
10%
coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 96
Africa electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
Africa Africa
gigawatts percentage
history projections
700 100% other
history projections
90%
600
80%
solar
500 70%
60%
400 wind
50% hydroelectric
300 40% nuclear

200 30%
natural gas
20%
100
10% coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 97
Brazil electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity,
Brazil Brazil
gigawatts percentage
history projections
250 100% battery storage
history projections other
90%
solar
200 80%
70% wind
150 60%
50%
100 40% hydroelectric
30%
50 20% nuclear
10% natural gas
0% coal
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 98
Other non-OECD Americas electric generating capacity by
source
Installed electric generating capacity by source, Share of installed electric generating capacity, Other
Other non-OECD Americas non-OECD Americas
gigawatts percentage
history projections
250 100% other
history projections solar
90%
200 80%
wind
70%
150 60%
50%
hydroelectric
100 40%
30% nuclear
natural gas
50 20%
10%
coal
0 0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 99
India and Canada electric generating capacity by source
Installed electric generating capacity, India Installed electric generating capacity, Canada
gigawatts gigawatts

2,500 250
history projections other history projections
other
battery storage
nuclear
2,000 200
solar
wind
solar
1,500 150

hydroelectric
1,000 100
wind
500 hydroelectric 50 natural gas
natural gas
coal
0 0 coal
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 100

Coal
OECD and non-OECD coal share of electric power
Coal share of electric power generation
percentage
60%
history projections

50%

40%

non-OECD
30%

20%
OECD
10%

0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 102

World coal consumption and production
World coal consumption World coal production
billion short tons billion short tons
10 10
history projections history projections
9 9
8 8 India
7 7
6 6
5 5 China
4 4
Other non-OECD
3 3 Asia
2 2 Other non-OECD
United States
1 1 OECD Europe
0 0 Other OECD
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 103

World coal consumption and trade by subtypes
World coal consumption by subtypes World coal trade by subtypes
billion short tons billion short tons
10 2.0
history projections history projections
9 1.8
8 1.6
7 1.4
6 1.2
5 1.0
thermal
4 thermal 0.8
3 0.6
2 0.4 metallurgical
1 0.2
metallurgical
0 0.0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 104

World thermal coal consumption and production
Thermal coal consumption Thermal coal production
billion short tons billion short tons
10 10
history projections history projections
rest of the
8 world 8 rest of the world
Russia Russia
United States United States
6 OECD Europe 6 Australia and
Other non- New Zealand
OECD Asia Other non-
4 4 OECD Asia
China
China
2 2

India India
0 0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 105

World thermal coal imports and exports
Thermal coal imports Thermal coal exports
billion short tons billion short tons
1.2 1.2
history projections history projections
1.0 1.0 rest of world
rest of world
Other non-
0.8 OECD Asia 0.8 Other non-
Asian OECD

0.6 0.6 Russia

India

0.4 0.4 Africa

China United States

0.2 South Korea 0.2

Japan Australia and
OECD Europe New Zealand
0.0 0.0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 106

World metallurgical coal consumption and production
Metallurgical coal consumption Metallurgical coal production
billion short tons billion short tons
1.4 1.4
history projections history projections
1.2 1.2
rest of world rest of world
1.0 1.0
Russia Russia
0.8 United States 0.8
OECD Europe United States
0.6 Other non- 0.6 Australia and
OECD Asia New Zealand
0.4 China 0.4 Other non-
OECD Asia
0.2 0.2 China
India
0.0 0.0 India
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 107

World metallurgical coal imports and exports
Metallurgical coal imports Metallurgical coal exports
billion short tons billion short tons
0.8 0.8
history projections history projections

rest of world
0.6 0.6 Other non-
rest of world
Other non- OECD Asia
OECD Asia Russia
0.4 0.4 Canada
India Africa
United States

0.2 China 0.2 Australia and

South Korea New Zealand
Japan
0.0 OECD Europe 0.0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 108

China coal consumption and supply
Coal consumption in China Coal supply in China
quadrillion British thermal units billion short tons
120 6
history projections history projections

100 5

80 buildings 4
imports

60 electric 3 production
power
40 2
industrial
20 1

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 109

India coal and power sector consumption
Coal consumption by sector, India Power sector energy consumption by source, India
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

60 60
history projections history projections

50 50

renewables
40 40

30 electric 30
power
20 20
industrial
coal
10 10 natural gas
buildings nuclear
0 liquid fuels
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 110

Petroleum and other
liquids
Liquid fuels consumption across cases
World liquid fuels consumption
million barrels per day
160 High Economic
history projections
Growth
140
High Oil Price
120 Reference
Low Oil Price
100 Low Economic
Growth
80

60

40

20

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 112

Liquid fuels consumption by sector and region
Petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption Petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
300 300
history projections history projections
250 250

200 transportation 200

non-OECD
150 150

100 100 OECD

industrial
50 50
residential
0 commercial
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 113

Petroleum and other liquids consumption
End-use sector liquid fuels consumption, world
quadrillion British thermal units
180
history projections

150
transportation
120
industrial
90

60

30
residential
0 commercial
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 114

OECD and non-OECD liquid fuels consumption by sector
Refined petroleum and other liquids consumption Refined petroleum and other liquids consumption
by sector, OECD by sector, non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units

180 180
history projections history projections
160 160
140 140
120 120
100 100 transportation
80 transportation 80
60 60
40 industrial 40 industrial
20 buildings 20 buildings
electric power electric power
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 115

OECD and non-OECD liquid fuels consumption in the transportation
and industrial sectors
Refined petroleum and other liquids consumption, Refined petroleum and other liquids consumption,
transportation industrial
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
90 90
history projections history projections
80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
non-OECD
40 40
OECD
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 116

OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil and lease condensate production
World crude oil and lease condensate production
million barrels per day
70
history projections
non-OPEC
60

50
OPEC
40

30

20

10

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 117

World liquid fuels production
World petroleum and other liquid fuels production
million barrels per day

140

120
OPEC crude oil
100 and lease
condensate
80

60 non-OPEC crude
oil and lease
40 condensate

20 natural gas plant

liquids and other
0 liquid fuels
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 118

World crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production
World liquid fuels production by select type
millions of barrels per day
120
history projections
100 crude oil

80

60

40

20 natural gas
plant liquids

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 119

OPEC crude oil production by region
OPEC crude oil and lease condensate production by select regions
million barrels per day
45
history projections South America
40 Central and
35 West Africa
North Africa
30
25
20
Middle East
15
10
5
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 120

Non-OPEC crude oil production by region
Non-OPEC crude oil and lease condensate production by select regions
millions of barrels per day
16
history projections
United
14
States
12 Russia

10

8
Canada
6

4 Brazil

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 121

Non-OECD Asia crude oil production and liquid fuels
consumption
Crude oil production by select regions Total liquid fuels consumption by select regions
million barrels per day million barrels per day
20 20

China
Other non-
15 15 OECD Asia
India

10 10

China
5 Other non- 5
OECD
Asia
India
0 0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Natural Gas
OECD and non-OECD natural gas consumption
World natural gas consumption
quadrillion British thermal units

140
history projections
non-OECD
120

100
OECD
80

60

40

20

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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OECD and non-OECD natural gas consumption by region
OECD natural gas consumption Non-OECD natural gas consumption
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
120 120
history projections history projections
China
100 100
India
80 80 Other Asia
Asia
60 60 Middle East

Americas
40 40 Africa
Americas
Europe
20 20
Europe and Eurasia

0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Natural gas consumption for oil and natural gas extraction
Natural gas consumption for oil and natural gas
extraction industries
quadrillion British thermal units
14
history projections Other non-OECD
12 Europe and Eurasia
Middle East
10
Canada
8
United States
6

4
rest of world
2

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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World natural gas consumption by sector
World natural gas consumption by sector
quadrillion British thermal units
100
90 industrial

80
70
60
electric power
50
40
30
20
transportation
10
0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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OECD and non-OECD natural gas consumption by sector
Natural gas consumption by sector, OECD Natural gas consumption by sector, non-OECD
quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
125 125
history projections history projections

100 100
industrial
75 75

50 50 electric power

25 25 transportation
buildings
0 0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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World natural gas production
World natural gas production
trillion cubic feet
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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 Natural gas production, top producing regions
Natural gas production by region, select regions
trillion cubic feet

United States Russia non-OECD Asia Canada Middle East

50 50 50 50 50

40 40 40 40 40

30 30 30 30 30

20 20 20 20 20

10 10 10 10 10

0 0 0 0 0

2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
2040
2050

2020

2030

2040

2050
2020
2030
2040
2050

2020

2030

2040

2050
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Natural gas production and net exports, top producing regions
Natural gas production by select regions Net exports of natural gas
trillion cubic feet trillion cubic feet
50 16

45 United Russia
14
States
40
12
35 Russia
10
30 Middle
25 East 8 United States
20 6
Middle East
15
4
10
2
5
0 0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

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OECD and non-OECD natural gas net imports
Net imports of natural gas
trillion cubic feet

20
OECD non-OECD
15
10
5 2020
0 2030
2040
-5 2050
-10
-15
-20
Americas Europe Australia Japan and Middle East Europe and Africa Asia
and New South Korea Eurasia
Zealand

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 132

Natural gas net imports, top importing regions
Net imports of natural gas
trillion cubic feet
18
history projections non-OECD Asia
16
OECD Europe
14
12
10
8
Japan and
6
South Korea
4
2
0
-2
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 133

Asia natural gas production and consumption
Natural gas consumption and production, Asia
trillion cubic feet
60

consumption
50

40
production
30

20

10

0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 134

Emissions
OECD and non-OECD energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
billion metric tons

45
history projections
40
35
30
25
non-OECD
20
15
10
OECD
5
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 136

 Net change in OECD and non-OECD energy-related carbon
dioxide emissions by fossil fuel source
Net change in carbon dioxide emissions, Net change in carbon dioxide emissions,
OECD non-OECD
million metric tons million metric tons

2020–2035
2020–2035 coal 2035–2050
coal 2035–2050

liquid fuels
liquid fuels

natural gas natural gas

total total

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

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World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
billion metric tons

20
history projections
18 coal
16 liquid fuels
14
12
10 natural gas
8
6
4
2
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 138

Petroleum liquids carbon dioxide emissions by region
Liquid fuels-related carbon dioxide emissions for select regions
billion metric tons
3
history projections

United States
2 China
OECD Europe
India

1 OECD Asia
non-OECD
Europe and
Eurasia

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 139

Natural gas carbon dioxide emissions by region
Natural gas-related carbon dioxide emissions for select regions
billion metric tons
2.5
history projections

2.0
United States
non-OECD Europe
and Eurasia
1.5
OECD-Europe
1.0 China

0.5 OECD Asia

India
0.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 140

Coal carbon dioxide emissions by region
Coal-related carbon dioxide emissions for selected countries/regions
billion metric tons

10
history projections

8
China
6

4 India
non-OECD Europe
2 and Eurasia
United States
OECD Europe
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 141

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in India by fossil fuel
source
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel type, India
billion metric tons

7
history projections
6
natural gas
5
liquids
4

2 coal

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 142

 OECD and non-OECD Kaya identity components
Kaya identity components
Population Per capita GDP Energy intensity Carbon intensity
billion people thousand dollars per person thousand British thermal metric tons CO2 per billion
units per dollar British thermal units

9 $90 9 90
non-OECD
8 $80 8 80
7 $70 7 70
OECD non-OECD
6 $60 6 60
5 $50 5 50
non-OECD
4 $40 4 40
OECD
3 $30 non-OECD 3 30
OECD OECD
2 $20 2 20
1 $10 1 10
0 $0 0 0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 143

World energy-related and electricity-related carbon dioxide
emissions
World carbon dioxide emissions
billion metric tons
50
history projections
45
40
economy-wide
35
30
25
20
15
electricity
10
5
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 144

Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation
Electricity carbon dioxide emissions, OECD versus non-OECD
billion metric tons
10
history projections non-OECD

4
OECD

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 145

OECD and non-OECD carbon dioxide intensity of electricity
Electricity carbon dioxide emissions intensity
million metric tons CO2 per billion kilowatthour
1.0
history projections

0.8

0.6

non-OECD
0.4

0.2 OECD

0.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 146

References
Acronyms and abbreviations

• b/d = barrels per day • GTL = gas-to-liquids

• Btu = British thermal unit • GW = gigawatts

• CO2 = carbon dioxide • IEO = International Energy Outlook

• EIA = U.S. Energy Information Administration • LNG = liquefied natural gas

• GDP = gross domestic product • PPP = purchasing power parity

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 148

 Acronyms and abbreviations
• OECD = Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development
• OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries = Algeria, Angola, Congo,
Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq,
Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, United
Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
• Petroleum and other liquids = crude oil and
lease condensate (including tight oil, shale oil,
extra-heavy oil, field condensate, and bitumen)
and other liquid fuels (natural gas plant liquids,
liquids from renewable sources [biofuels,
including ethanol, biodiesel, and biomass-to-
liquids], liquids from natural gas [gas-to-liquids],
liquids from coal [coal-to-liquids], and liquids
from kerogen [oil shale]).
• Tcf = trillion cubic feet
#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 149
 IEO regional definitions: OECD Regions

• OECD Americas = United States, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands and Mexico.

• OECD Europe = Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland,
Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and United Kingdom. (Note: Israel is
included in OECD Europe for statistical reporting purposes.)

• OECD Asia = Australia, American Samoa, Guam, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea.

#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/ieo 150

 IEO regional definitions: non-OECD Regions
• Other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia = Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Faroe Islands, Georgia, Gibraltar, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Macedonia, Malta,
Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

• Other non-OECD Asia = Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia
(Kampuchea), Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Kiribati, Laos, Macau,
Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Nauru, Nepal, New Caledonia, Niue, Northern Mariana Islands North
Korea, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka,
Taiwan, Thailand, Timor-Leste (East Timor), Tonga, Vanuatu, Vietnam, and Wake Islands.

• Middle East = Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestinian Territories, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.

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 IEO regional definitions: non-OECD Regions
• Africa = Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central
African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Congo (Kinshasa), Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt,
Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, The Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia,
Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria,
Reunion, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa,
South Sudan, St. Helena, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Western Sahara, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe

• Other non-OECD Americas = Antarctica, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Aruba, The Bahamas,
Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bolivia, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica,
Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Falkland Islands, French Guiana, Greenland, Grenada,
Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles,
Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Pierre and Miquelon, St.
Vincent/Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uruguay and Venezuela.

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Map of IEO regions

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For more information
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

October 6, 2021
#IEO2021 www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo

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