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Distribution criteria

SHARING tax resources has always been one of the biggest causes of strife among
the centre and provinces. Perhaps the only time we saw this friction subside
temporarily was when the seventh NFC Award was signed in 2010 after the centre
raised the provinces’ share substantially, and Punjab agreed to the long-standing
demand of the other provinces to replace the single-factor population-based
formula with multi-factor criteria for sharing resources. The new criteria were seen
as more equitable. Though population still has a weightage of 82pc, the inclusion of
criteria such as inverse population density, poverty and backwardness is a
progressive step towards the resolution of inter-provincial strife. The provinces
were handed over collection of sales tax on services too. Yet the ‘harmony’ of the
initial years did not last long. Soon centrists started blaming the award for the
centre’s financial difficulties and the large deficits it had started to run, without
realising that Islamabad had failed to carry out its part of the bargain: raise tax-to-
GDP ratio by 5pc to 15pc over the five-year life of the award.

Now the federal government is blaming the award, or more specifically, the heavy weightage in the
formula for horizontal distribution. Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal said recently that the existing
NFC formula actually incentivises population growth. His concerns regarding Pakistan’s
population growth rate of 2.8pc, the fastest in the world, are valid. It has to be reversed or
restrained if we are to make progress. Indeed, the weightage assigned to population must be
significantly reduced to make space for other criteria to impose fiscal discipline on the provinces
and also to encourage them to boost their own tax revenues. However, the provinces are not
responsible if the new award is not being negotiated after the expiry of the existing one eight years
ago. It is the centre that has dragged its feet on talks for the new award. Moreover, it has not
allowed NFC talks since 2015 to go beyond vertical resource-sharing between itself and the
provinces. The provinces would be happy to renegotiate provincial-sharing criteria and reduce the
weightage given to population.

That said, it is a mistake to blame the NFC Award for escalation in the population growth rate. If
Sindh and Balochistan are complaining that their residents haven’t been counted properly, it is
more because of political reasons. The MQM isn’t fighting for more resources for Sindh from the
federal divisible pool but for more national and provincial assembly seats from Karachi and other
urban centres. Reduced population weightage on its own will not slow down the birth rate; there

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are several other factors such as poverty, illiteracy and high child mortality that also need to be
addressed before population growth can be reduced.

Published in Dawn, May 22nd, 2023

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Laudable laws

AWAY from the bitter divisiveness on the political front, the National Assembly on
Monday enacted laws that will have a salutary effect on a large swathe of the
population, and could significantly impact society as a whole if the provinces follow
suit and revisit their existing laws on the issues concerned.

Take the Maternity and Paternity Leave Bill, 2023, which applies to all public and private
establishments under the federal government’s administrative control including companies,
factories, autonomous and semi-autonomous organisations, etc, wherever they may be in the
country. It allows women up to six months’ leave for the birth of their first child, and four and
three months on the birth of the second and third child respectively — all on full pay.

This is a more generous allowance than what was so far available. New fathers will be entitled to a
month’s fully paid leave upon the birth of their child, for up to three times during their term of
service.

The Day Care Centres Act, 2023, mandates all government and private organisations within the
Islamabad Capital Territory with at least 70 employees to set up a day care centre on their
premises. Another bill passed by the NA makes educational institutions a more child-friendly
space by requiring paramedical staff to be available on the premises of all such institutions in ICT.

According to the ILO, women account for around 22pc of the labour force, one of the lowest
female labour force participation rates in South Asia. Among the many barriers are inadequate
maternity leave provisions; while such legislation exists across all provinces, it varies
considerably.

At 16 weeks, Sindh offers the longest leave on maternity grounds while the other provinces offer
14 and 12 weeks. Passing a law stipulating paid paternity leave is also a progressive move, which
acknowledges that men too have a role to play in this life event.

The lack of day care facilities on the job further facilitates women’s employment, instead of
compelling a choice between maternal duties and work. Pakistan cannot afford to lose out on
women’s participation in its economic life.

Published in Dawn, May 22nd, 2023

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Minority reports

TWO recent American reports paint an unflattering picture where the state of
religious freedom in Pakistan is concerned. The US State Department’s 2022 Report
on International Religious Freedom’s section on Pakistan presents an extensive list
of incidents of religious persecution in the country. It observes that in 2022, at least
52 people “were accused of blasphemy or related religious-based criminal charges”.
Most of the accused were Ahmadi. It also highlights the issues of forced conversion
and targeted killings on religious grounds. Meanwhile, the annual report of the US
Commission on International Religious Freedom also has few good things to say
about freedom of belief in Pakistan. Highlighting many of the same issues the State
Department report mentioned, the USCIRF document recommends re-designating
Pakistan as a “country of particular concern”, while advocating targeted sanctions
against Pakistan. Reacting to the State Department report, the Foreign Office has
termed it “ill-informed … irresponsible and counterproductive”, while claiming that
Pakistan’s Constitution offers a “robust framework” for religious freedom.

While the US does tend to use such reports as political tools, there can be little argument with the
findings. Even if these reports had not been compiled, the grim fact is that the state of religious
freedom in Pakistan is far from ideal. The public lynchings over accusations of blasphemy, misuse
of the blasphemy law, and the marginalisation of minority communities are all stark realities in
today’s Pakistan. This is so because, whereas the country’s founders had envisaged a pluralistic
state where all denominations would be free to profess their beliefs, over the decades, rabid
extremists have hijacked the discourse — often encouraged by the establishment — bringing us to
where we stand today. Instead of living in denial, the state must work to roll back the tide of
extremism that threatens to take Pakistan under. This must be done not to please any external
powers, but to make Pakistan a more liveable place for all its citizens.

Published in Dawn, May 22nd, 2023

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Pakistan’s moment of peril

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.

NEVER before in its turbulent history has Pakistan witnessed what came to pass in
recent weeks. Violence and wanton destruction of government buildings and
military property by PTI followers after their leader’s (temporary) arrest.

An angry protest demonstration by ruling coalition parties outside the Supreme Court, which
called on the chief justice (CJ) to resign for ‘favouring Imran Khan’; some leaders even
threatening “dire consequences” from any court action against Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

The overarching political reality today is resistance by political parties to play by the rules. For
months the government-opposition confrontation has been so fierce and unrestrained that no
longer are any rules respected by the warring sides. Meanwhile, the military, furious at allegations

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by opposition leader Imran Khan and vandalisation of army installations, lashed out at “politically
motivated” attacks and pledged to bring the perpetrators of violence to justice under army laws.

For his part, Khan alleged a ‘planned conspiracy’ to defame his party and create the justification to
ban PTI. When a crackdown was launched against his party cadres and several members began to
quit PTI, his tone softened but he still claimed he was being targeted to prevent his return to
power. In another twist in the crisis, the Lahore High Court struck down decisions of the Election
Commission and National Assembly Speaker on the resignations of 72 PTI lawmakers, who Khan
then asked to return to parliament to protest there.

Even a semblance of national unity lies shattered. With neither side willing to back down, the
political system is broken and democracy imperilled by the no-holds-barred power tussle. Endless
political turmoil has pushed the country to the edge of the abyss.

The authority of state institutions is being eroded in a no-

holds-barred political battle.

All state institutions have come under assault. The ruling coalition defied the Supreme Court
order on holding Punjab elections and made the chief justice the target of virulent attack to force
him to step down. To pre-empt any contempt action by the court it is also planning a ‘reference’
for ‘misconduct’ against the CJ, as indicated by a resolution adopted by the National Assembly last
week.

The government has also declared it won’t accept any verdict by the apex court, accusing it of
being partisan. In its confrontation with the SC, it has wrapped itself in the principle of
parliamentary supremacy, throwing the very notion of separation of powers out of the window. It
also adopted legislation to curb the CJ’s powers.

For its part, the PTI leadership has questioned the military’s role with Khan hurling one allegation
after another at the army leadership, including the accusation that it seeks to disqualify and
eliminate him from politics. Such attacks prompted a predictably strong response from the
military’s public relations wing.

The ongoing political crisis has also entailed unseemly clashes between institutions — the
executive and parliament with the higher judiciary, the government with the presidency and the

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Election Commission with the Supreme Court. In each instance one institution has accused the
other of overstepping its constitutional authority.

When the pillars of state clash or come under attack by political leaders, then whatever the aim,
the consequence is to bring their credibility into question and reputation into disrepute. This can
involve lasting institutional damage which, as history has shown, takes a long time to undo.

By undermining public trust in institutions, political actors ignore its deleterious consequences.
The authority of these institutions rests principally on their legitimacy. When this is undermined,
whether intended or unintended, the state’s authority is eroded. And when brinkmanship rather
than restraint is on display the entire edifice of governance is exposed to the risk of paralysis and
breakdown.

This has important implications for economic governance, which is the core task of the state. The
economy cannot be effectively managed in an environment where there is erosion of institutional
authority and nonstop political turmoil.

The implementation of economic decisions, especially the tough decisions needed today, rests on
public compliance and acceptance of the legitimacy of government actions in this regard. But in an
atmosphere where all state authority is being challenged, economic decisions too come into public
question. This can lead to weak compliance or non-compliance with policy decisions, which in
turn can jeopardise economic recovery.

At a time when the worst economic crisis in Pakistan’s history needs to be seriously confronted the
country can least afford the erosion of state authority. Already the political battle has proved to be
a fatal distraction for the government, preventing it from taking timely and prudent decisions to
avert an economic breakdown.

Heightened political instability is exacting a heavy toll on the economy. The country remains on
the verge of default while a cost-of-living crisis is creating conditions for possible public unrest
down the road.

In this complex situation, questions are being raised by some quarters whether general elections,
due in October, can be held in such a toxic and fraught atmosphere. There is certainly a need to
bring down the political temperature and establish a modicum of calm for the peaceful conduct of
elections.

But any move to postpone elections beyond the constitutionally stipulated timeframe will be a
recipe for disaster and cause more, not less, political turmoil. In fact, announcing a date for

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elections is still the only way the country can extricate itself from the escalating political crisis,
which is endangering both the economy and national unity.

Ideally, a political ceasefire and minimum consensus is needed between rival parties and leaders
on an agreed path to elections and rules for its conduct. But the failure of talks between the
government and opposition have put paid to such an outcome. The widening crackdown against
the opposition has now made any resumption of dialogue impossible.

Even so, the only way out of the present political quagmire is for the government to put the
country’s interests before its own and fix a date for elections, to enable people to decide who
should govern them. In the absence of this, the country’s very future will be at stake.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.

Published in Dawn, May 22nd, 2023

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A social contract

The writer has over 25 years of experience in inclusive programmes for women, public health and prosperity.
She is currently associated with an Islamabad-based think tank.

WATCHING the news recently, I heard the IG of Punjab Police berating women for
having the audacity to be out protesting in public. He used the damning word
‘modern’ to describe them.

Society fears disruptors — those elements, sometimes individuals or groups or even political
parties, that throw away the rulebook and attempt a paradigm shift away from current accepted
attitudes and practices. In many polities, both extremes exist side by side — conservatives that
battle even minor changes to what they consider traditional norms, and disruptors who aim for
revolution in some shape or form. The pendulum swinging from one side to the other comes to
rest at the middle ground. Or so we are led to believe.

The Iranian Revolution of 1979 was a swing of the pendulum from one relative extreme to another
— however, the underlying construct of rulership remained the same — more authoritarianism
under religious guise as compared to the modern ‘liberal’ guise it had under the Shah. Extreme
religious conservatism, however, didn’t seem to prevent the education of girls. In Iran, female

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adult literacy has risen from 24 per cent in 1976 to 81pc in 2016. According to World Bank
estimates approximately 80pc of girls are enrolled in secondary school (2017 figures).

Saudi Arabia’s theocracy also didn’t find educating girls to be a problem. Progress for equality in
girls’ and women’s education has resulted in women’s literacy rate consistently increasing over the
decades. In 1992, women in Saudi Arabia had an average literacy rate of 57pc. In 2017, the literacy
rate for women was 99pc, according to Unesco. The winds of change sweeping through the
kingdom today are, in part, a result of this focus on education for all.

Extreme religious conservatism in Iran and Saudi Arabia

hasn’t prevented the education of girls.

The answer lies in our social norms and attitudes, which seems to be the only difference between
us and more conservative regimes like Iran. Girls’ education is that one disruptor that, in the eyes
of most Pakistani males, could have serious consequences for their authority and power.
Unfortunately, years of authoritarianism embedded in sociocultural norms that foster exclusion as
a means to control others, impact not only the oppressors but also their subjects. Men and women
find themselves confined by oppressive mental taboos that hinder their ability to transcend
conventional boundaries of thought. The education of girls, in particular, holds the potential to
initiate transformative change, making it a matter that warrants careful consideration. Let’s take
Iran as an example: recent statistics indicate that contraceptive usage exceeds 70pc, and the
average number of births per woman stands slightly above two, based on 2020 data. Today, Iran
faces further disruption to its religious regime — but while the government backlash has been
severe, the young (men and women) are educated and aware. They want progress.

Are social attitudes so difficult to break in Pakistan? The contraceptive prevalence rate is currently
34pc, and our population will cross the 300-million mark by 2040 if unchecked. Progress seems
to be made in fits and spurts, but this is often followed by backsliding. One recent success linked
to supporting more girls into education (especially secondary/higher education) is the Federal
Shariat Court’s decision that upheld the Sindh Child Marriage Restraint Act, 2013, which places
the minimum age of marriage as 18 years for both boys and girls in the province. This should be
considered a national victory. Setting the minimum marriage age at 18 offers opportunities for
girls and their families to seriously consider secondary schooling as a preferred option to breaking
the law. Education, after all, is the best form of human capital investment that can yield high
returns for individuals and their families. And these high returns occur not just in terms of GDP

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contribution, but as importantly, in overall human development indicators. More years of

schooling leads to less opportunity or choice of early marriage that, in tandem with multiple
pregnancies, is a harbinger for poor health and nutrition outcomes for girls and women.

Unfortunately, the good news is balanced by the alarming realisation that two-thirds of girls
(66pc) who complete primary school are prevented from attending middle/secondary school
simply because there are very few such schools available for them. This historic inequality in
access to education has cultural and traditional roots, which is reinforced by the old ways of
thinking and planning.

But mindsets are changing — as digital interfacing becomes easier, cheaper and the information
highway supercharges its way across urban-rural and income divides, disruption is bound to enter
the education system. Devolution, down to the individual school level is critical if girls are to be
given better education opportunities. Primary schools need to introduce secondary schooling
within their physical boundaries. Young, local teachers need to be trained and provided the
opportunity to work at such schools. Devolution means authorising schools’ leadership to address
challenges and develop opportunities experienced by them. Younger teachers will have new ideas
and parents of girls, and the girls themselves, are already demanding their rights to be educated
members of society.

Critical voices from within political and religious leadership need to take note and support this
demand by paving the way for positive disruptors and innovators to provide real time solutions to
the challenge.

The writer has over 25 years of experience in inclusive programmes for women, public health
and prosperity. She is currently associated with an Islamabad-based think tank.

Published in Dawn, May 22nd, 2023

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Climate chaos

SINDH as the most vulnerable region of Pakistan, has braved climate-induced

catastrophes. These have caused frequent harm to agricultural lands, livestock and
entire human settlements, forcing the vulnerable to sink deeper into poverty.
Millions have yet to recover from last year’s monster monsoon floods.

For centuries, land has played a pivotal role in Sindh’s power politics. The British used land as
reward for loyalists, solidifying the jagirdari system. After the conquest of Sindh, Gen Charles
Napier in 1843, displayed significant sympathy for indigenous jagirdars with the restoration of
jagirs, which strengthened feudalism and blocked land reforms. Although it was clear that the
abolition of jagirs would increase agricultural productivity and revenue for the British, Napier did
not want to lose the political support of landlords. This land distribution was criminal as it created
rural slavery, bonded labour and free labour. In the Gazetteer of West Pakistan: the Former

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Province of Sindh including Khairpur State, H.T Sorley says that the then revenue commissioner,
Sidney Ridley, advocated abolishment of jagirs on legal grounds — after independence, the
services of jagirdars were not required.

Thus, on Feb 8, 1955, this despotic system of control stood weakened with the cancellation of
sanads by the Sindh government. And in 1959, the Land Reforms Commission abolished jagirs.
But the feudal system survived and has a destructive impact on prospects of social and political
change in Sindh, such as low agricultural productivity and exhaustion of land. Thus, obliteration
of feudalism and illegal occupation of water resources will make disaster-management much
easier. The recent floods caused widespread devastation in districts where the flow of water was
blocked and bridges and embankments were broken by feudals to inflict losses on political
opponents. But the poor who voted against the rulers faced the worst distress. People fear another
bout of agony if natural waterways are not restored across Sindh.

The provincial bureaucracy has recently drafted a policy for resettlement and rehabilitation of
people displaced by development projects. The policy was opened to public debate at the
commissioner’s office in Hyderabad on Feb 9, 2023. An overriding objective of this policy is to
provide reasonable compensation to people dislocated from sites and to mitigate their difficulties.
However, it can be argued that it will not be sustainable without land reforms and subsequent
redistribution of land and redefining land ownership rights. Also, the policy has deliberately
ignored victims of climate disasters. It must, therefore, be revised keeping the ravages of climate
change in view.

The feudal system survives with all its destructive traits.

The draft policy in its present form has legal issues. For example, usurping ownership rights will
trigger litigation and conflict. There is no mechanism to deal with such procedural complications
without amendments in the colonial Land Acquisition Act 1894. Forced dislocation of people, free
labour, exploitation of local resources should be avoided and the policy for displacement must be
protected by legislative process.

The document is also devoid of a conf­li­ ct resolution met­h­od for disputes stemm­ing from
disturbance in the social structure and must debate social and cultural aspects of resettlement and
rehabilitation. Environmental degradation, caused by projects such as Left Bank Outfall Drain and
Thar coal project, has been overlooked. Policy­makers must learn lessons from past rehabilitation
strategies and the government should reduce the existing trust deficit by providing compensation

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to the displaced and the labour class. All stakeholders must participate in a dialogue at the policy
formulation level. Growers and native communities must be consulted and convinced for the
policy to be workable.

The policy draft is based on theoretical assumptions without scientific analysis. It must outline a
path to success by assigning responsibility for implementation, installing accountability
mechanisms and illustrate protection of economic, social, cultural and environmental rights of
communities in times of climate calamities, exacerbated by underdeveloped water infrastructure
and anthropogenic factors.

The writer is director of the Pakistan Study Centre, University of Sindh, Jamshoro.

shuja.mahesar@usindh.edu.pk

Published in Dawn, May 22nd, 2023

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Blocked information

The writer is a freelance contributor.

PAKISTAN is an important player in the digital world. It is heartening to note that,

according to a 2021 ILO report related to online work, Pakistan ranked as the
world’s third largest supplier of online labour, and is preceded only by Bangladesh
and India. Thanks to the growth of the IT sector, it is maintaining its position as one
of the top destinations for internet communications and technology outsourcing.

Not only are we a big market of freelancers but the internet is also increasingly becoming an
integral part of life, with people in both the urban and rural areas dependent on online services
and social media platforms for work, healthcare, education, etc. Indeed, with such dependence on
the digital world, it makes no sense whatsoever to close or disrupt internet services for even a day,
let alone several days.

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The recent move by the government of Pakistan to shut down internet services in the country, as a
result of the mayhem unleashed by miscreants, has shaken the trust of local and foreign
businessmen looking to invest or work here. It was a thoughtless and old-fashioned move on the
part of the government, which had a crippling impact on millions of individuals for whom various
digital services are a major source of livelihood.

Thanks to an inadequate wired infrastructure, more than 125 million people are using 3G and 4G
services provided by telecom operators. It is a problem when these services are shut down even
temporarily.

Disrupting internet services is not an option.

Internet services during this period were patchy at best. Meanwhile, the government also ordered
the closure of numerous popular social media sites. Perhaps, it did not realise that in this world of
advanced technology, it is near impossible to cut off access to social media sites as software and
mobile apps are capable of getting past firewalls and reaching the desired website or social media
platform.

That is precisely what happened: even though social media platforms were blocked, many were
still able to access blocked websites through virtual private networks — VPN — that help users
bypass firewalls by changing their IP location.

It is because of the use of VPN that some of the Twitter trends created in Pakistan were shown
trending in the Netherlands.

However, thanks to internet disruptions, the financial loss hit many. Those working through
freelancing websites were making all-out efforts to deliver their orders on time but unfortunately,
their efforts were in vain. The closure ordered by the government created mistrust.

The well-known freelancing site Fiverr downgraded Pakistan’s ranking, warning its customers
that they could face delays in delivery if they gave orders to freelancers in this country.

Pakistan is a country of youngsters: 60pc of its population is below the age of 30 — and this cohort
is increasing because of a high population growth rate. This means that more and more youngsters
will enter the job market in the years ahead.

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In this scenario, governments at both the federal and provincial level should partner with experts
and launch extensive programmes to teach people about safe and healthy use of the internet. In
fact, the use of the internet should be made part of the curriculum.

Pakistan’s youth represents its human capital. They should be encouraged and provided more
opportunities to enhance their earning through digital methods.

The success of digital entrepreneurs can help earn foreign exchange for the country and they may
set an example for their own communities, prompting more people to work online.

The global population survived economically during the Covid-19 pandemic because of access to
advanced digital services connecting them nationally and internationally.

This episode should be a lesson to the government (and future political dispensations) that the
suspension of internet services is not an option. It damages Pakistan and its people financially and
also hurts Pakistan’s image. Instead, the authorities should do all they can to promote the use of
the internet so that the benefits of online economy can reach people across the country.

The writer is a freelance contributor.

kzk1972@gmail.com

Twitter: @KhurramZiaKhan

Published in Dawn, May 22nd, 2023

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