Weekly Economic Review by UAE (DUBAI) Chapter of ICAI

(For internal circulation to members only)

Week ending May 27, 2023

Current Previous % Current Previous %
Week Week Change Week Week Change
DFM 3,541.41 3,544.53 -0.09% USD/INR 82.5600 82.8400 -0.34%
ADX 9,453.42 9,478.69 -0.27% EUR/USD 1.0727 1.0805 -0.72%
SENSEX 62,501.69 61,729.68 +1.25% USD/JPY 140.60 137.98 +1.90%
NIFTY 18,499.35 18,203.40 +1.63% USD/CNY 7.0600 7.0100 +0.71%
DOW 33,093.34 33,426.63 -1.00% Gold 1,947.00 1,977.40 -1.54%
NASDAQ 12,975.69 12,657.90 +2.51% US 10-year 3.8060 3.6830 +3.34%
S&P 500 4,205.45 4,191.98 +0.32% Brent Crude 77.35 75.87 +1.95%

Sharjah’s population increased by 22% since 2015

• According to the preliminary results announced by the Department of Statistics and
Community Development, the Sharjah Census 2022 showed that, its population increased
by a staggering 22% reaching 1.8million compared to 1.4million in 2015.
• Out of these, 1.6 million are expat residents, which includes 1.1 million males and 500,000
females. As many as 208,000 are Emiratis, which includes 103,000 males and 105,000
females. Nearly 310,000 enrolled in educational institutions with 42,000 Emirati families,
245,000 expat resident families occupied 244,000 housing units, 63,000 villas and houses,
and 7,000 occupied multi-story buildings, and 38,000 other types of structures.
• The survey revealed that the working population in Sharjah has also increased by 22%
since the last census report was published, increasing from 856,000 in 2015 to 1.1 million
in 2022.
• The census results also revealed that the per centage of students in the emirate has grown
by 23%, reaching 310,000. The number includes 249,000 in private educational institutions
and 61,000 in public education.

Qatar’s non-oil sector achieved 9.9% growth in Q4-2022

• The non-oil sector in Qatar achieved a growth of 9.9% and the oil sector recorded an
increase of 4.8% in Q4 2022.
• Qatar marked strong services sector activity amidst the FIFA World Cup hosting in
November-December 2022.
• According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Qatar’s real GDP growth is set to slow to 2.7%
in 2023 and then bounce slightly higher to 3.4% in 2024.

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 • In 2022, Qatar grew at 4.8%, a level unseen since the middle of the last decade, lifted by
strong economic activity in Q4

RBI dividend to the government rises by nearly 3-times

• The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Central Board of Directors has approved the transfer of
Rs 87,416 crore as surplus to the Central government for 2022-23. The board also decided
to raise the Contingency Risk Buffer to 6.00% from 5.50%.
• The dividend for 2022-23, transferred in 2023-24, is sharply higher than what the
government had expected to receive. In the 2023 Budget, the government had estimated it
would get Rs 48,000 crore which is 17% higher than the previous year, as dividend from the
central bank and state-owned lenders in 2023-24.
• The RBI distributes dividend to the government from the surplus income it earns on
investments and valuation changes on its dollar holdings and the fees it gets from printing
currency.

China holds lending rates steady for the nineth month

• China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the ninth month in May, matching
market expectations. One year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is held at 3.65%, whereas five-year
LPR is kept at 4.3%.

• A series of data over the past month or so, including April indicators last week, pointed to
an economy losing momentum after the initial post-COVID bounce and lifted hopes of more
easing measures.

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UK retail activity rebounds in April
• After a rain-battered March, UK retail sales rose by 0.5% in April, partially offsetting the
weakness seen in the prior month.
• Sales are up fractionally since December’s trough, and the worst is probably behind us for
retailers.
• According to the data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), sales volume rose
0.8% in the three months to April when compared with the previous three months, the
highest rate since August 2021.

• Department stores’ sales volumes rose 1.7% in April following a fall of 3% in the previous
month. Food stores’ sales volumes edged up 0.7%, after dropping in March, but remained
2.7% below their pre-coronavirus February 2020 levels.
• Meanwhile, automotive fuel stores’ sales volumes fell 2.2% in April, following a small rise in
the previous month, which the ONS partially attributed to industrial action affecting public
transport in March.

UK inflation drops in April, below 10% for the first time since Aug-22
• According to the data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), U.K. inflation
dropped sharply in April, with headline CPI inflation coming in at 8.7% year-on-year, down
from 10.1% in March.

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 • The drop in the inflation is primarily on account of drop in the energy prices and the impact
of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began to drop out of the annual consumer price comparison.
• Electricity and gas prices contributed 1.42% to the fall in annual inflation in April. The
annual inflation rate of food and non-alcoholic beverages eased, from 19.2% in the year to
March 2023, to 19.1% in the year to April 2023.

US new home sales continues climb as activity rise to 13-month high

• According to the data released by the Commerce Department, new home sales increased
4.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000 units last month, the highest level
since March 2022. March's sales pace was revised lower to 656,000 units from the
previously reported 683,000.
• New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading indicator of
the housing market. They, however, can be volatile on a month-to-month basis.
• Sales rebounded 11.8% on a year-on-year basis in April. The median new house price in
April was $420,800, an 8.2% drop from a year ago. Home sales last month were
concentrated in the $300,000 to 499,000 price range.
• The inventory of existing homes remains 44% below its pre-pandemic levels, according to
data from the National Association of Realtors.

A week gone by – In Charts

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What to expect in coming week?

Date Country / Region Event Forecast Previous

China Manufacturing PMI 51.4 49.2
31st May
Germany Inflation – CPI – YoY – May 7.3% 7.2%
1st June Eurozone Inflation – CPI – YoY – May 7.0% 7.0%
Nonfarm payrolls 180K 253K
2nd June US
Unemployment Rate 3.5% 3.4%

Compiled & researched by: CA Shantanu Ghate

Disclaimer: This is not a research report of the UAE (Dubai) Chapter and the views and information contained herein are the
personal views of the author. These should not be taken to constitute advice or recommendation. The author & UAE (Dubai)
Chapter do not claim it to be accurate nor accept any responsibility for the same.
Source: Bloomberg.com, Investing.com, reuters.com, thehindubusinessline.com, livemint.com, ft.com, cnbc.com, oilprice.com,
gulfnews.com, Bloomberquint.com, moneycontrol.com, nikkei.com