Decision: Harvest Grapes Immidiately or Leave Them on the Vines

Cases of Riesling 1,000

Bottles per Case 12
Total Riesling 12,000

Result
Harvest Condition
Alcohol Residual Sugar Complexity
20% Sugar 10% - Light Bodied
25% Sugar 10% 5% Full Bodied
Botryis (35% Sugar) 11% 13% Extraordinary Concentration, High Complexity

Event Probability Selling Price

Harvest Immidiately - $2.85

Leave on the Vines - -

Storm Hit 50% -
Botrys Mold 40% $5.60
Decrease Concentration 60% $2.00

No Storm 50% -
<0.7% Acidity 80% -
25% Sugar 50% $3.50
20% Sugar 50% $3.00
<0.7% Acidity 20% $2.50
 Harvest Immidiately

34200 34200

0.5
Storm Hits

39240 0 41280

Leave in Vines

0 39240

0.5
No Storm

0 37200

Freemark Abbey Winery should not harvest immidiately & let the grapes to ripe in the vine as it is expected to g

*Note: The expected profit of $39,240 is based on the decision that if the storm came and the botrys mold did no
price. If the winnery decided to sell the wine at bulk (half price) or sell the grapes directly, the expected profit fro
than harvesting immidiately (at $35,620). Hence, this decision is irrelevant to the Winnery's deicison wether to h
 34200

40%
Botrys Mold
67200
67200 67200

Sell Wine at Full Price

24000
24000 24000

60%
Thin Wine Sell Wine in Bulk
12000
0 24000 12000 12000

Sell Grapes Directly

12000
12000 12000

0.5
25% Sugar
0.8 42000
>=0.7% Acidity 42000 42000

0 39000 0.5
20% Sugar
36000
36000 36000

0.2
< 0.7% Acidity
30000
30000 30000

es to ripe in the vine as it is expected to generate higher profit ($39,240)

he storm came and the botrys mold did not form, the Winery would sell the wine at full
he grapes directly, the expected profit from waiting for the grapes to ripe is still higher
ant to the Winnery's deicison wether to harvest immidiately or let the grapes ripe.
colorful

ID
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
PARENT TYPE ROW COL LABEL VALUE PROP
14 T 2 5Harvest Immidiately 34200 0.5
7 T 7 13 Botrys Mold 67200 0.4
6 T 12 17Sell Wine at Full Price
24000 0.333333
6 T 17 17 Sell Wine in Bulk12000 0.333333
6 T 22 17Sell Grapes Directly12000 0.333333
7 D 17 13 Thin Wine 12000 0.6
13 E 12 9 Storm Hits 0 0.5
10 T 27 17 25% Sugar 42000 0.5
10 T 32 17 20% Sugar 36000 0.5
12 E 29 13 >=0.7% Acidity 0 0.8
12 T 37 13 < 0.7% Acidity 30000 0.2
13 E 33 9 No Storm 0 0.5
14 E 22 5 Leave in Vines 0 0.5
0 D 12 1 Event 3 0 1