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In this paper are presented two indicators (Bolliger Lines and Pivot Points) which can be used in the technical analysis
of a stock in order to optimize the terms of a transaction in the Stock Exchange. Are described techniques of using these
indicators for determining the optimal moment we buy or sell a stock.
The course of any share, stock market index or exchange rate evolves between diverse levels of support and
resistance.
Support – represents the value of the share at which the course stops and goes back; the comeback takes
place after a drop. Buyers and sellers usually see this level as a point of balance, when selling comes to a stop
and the buying is commencing. The more times this point is reached, the stronger it is. When it breaks, it
becomes a resistance for the past evolution.
The resistance – represents the value of a share at which the course stops and goes back; the comeback takes
place after a growth. Buyers and sellers usually see this level as a point of balance, the selling starting and the
buying commencing. The more the resistance is reached, the stronger it is. When it is broken, it becomes a
support for the past evolution.
In the next graphic, the supports are represented by Sx, and the resistances by Rx.
2. The Bollinger Lines (BL)
Along with the mobile medians, the Bollinger lines are probably the most important technical index. This
quality comes from the observation that between them, in the space delimited by plus or minus two standard
deviations towards the arithmetical average of the price from a 20-day period, there is 95% of the price
population (we are talking about the closing price, „close”, even if we can use any type of price). In other
words, in 95% of the cases., the closing price must be placed between these lines, having the parameter
BL(2,20), where 20 is the number of the periods taken into account, and 2 represents the number of standard
deviations towards the 20 day median. From 100% there are less than 5% cases in which the closing is
situated outside the lines (upper or lower). Every case up to 5% will return in the space between the lines.
BL are now part of every program of technical analysis and are used mostly to determine if the actual
volatility is too low or too high. A lower volatility (which means that the BL lines are closer) shows us that
the action is a compressed arch. The more this period goes on, the higher the potential of a price boom. Once
the price „booms” (because it will most surely do so), the volatility will grow, ending with a trend that might
be descendent or ascendant. After a period of widening out, the lines tend to get closer (the volatility drops),
as a result of the tendency of consolidation after a trend.
A set of Bollinger lines is characterized by the following elements:
- The arithmetical median of the price for n periods, AM(n)
- The superior BL found at +x standard deviations towards AM(n)
- The lower BL found at –x standard deviations towards AM(n)
The results obtained from applying the BL have showed us that 2 standard deviations and 10 days are a set of
parameters that give relying results.
The following graphic shows us the BL(2,20) for the BRK share for the period august 2006 – february 2006:
We can see a period where the volatility is very low (the BL shortens out), after which the share price booms
(in our case it is a rise, but it could also have been a drop). The longer the period of low volatility, the greater
the fall/rise of the price. During strong growths, the price remains in the superior part of the BL, most of the
times being placed outside of it. Also, when the trend is descendent, the price is near the lower part of the BL.
Any exceeding of the lower or the superior part of the BL must be followed by a return in the BL (these are
the exceptions of the 5% case). Another characteristic is the fact that the price tends to the BL, but it is not
necessary to exceed any line; in other words, after the price reaches the upper BL, it will then descend, going
under the AM(20) and reaching the lower BL. The same process may take place if the price starts from the
lower BL.
3. The Pivot Points
During a trading session, the price balances between different levels of support and resistance, levels
described in the first paragraph. Generally, a pivot PP is a point at which the price is expected to change it’s
course.
We will further present the five components of the pivot technique: S2, S1, PP, R1, R2 and how to calculate
them.
H = the maximum price level from the last day
L = the minimum price level from the last day
C = the closing price from the last day
Pivot
First support
First resistance
Second support
Second resistance
The pivot must consider the first value that should be taken into account before entering a transaction. Only
when we reach this point we will be able to know if we should enter or exit a transaction. Generally, if the
price is above PP, the situation is considered as „bullish”, and if not, it is a „bearish” situation.
Let’s assume that when the trading session starts, the price is below PP. S1 and S2 are the the next inferior
levels that can be touched (theoreticaly) , but it is not necessary. If S2 is reached, it is not recommanded to
buy the share, but we should wait until the price rises, reaches PP and goes further towards R1. If at the
begining of the trading session the price is above the PP, them R1 and R2 are goals that should be reached and
that may offer profit: if the price excedes R1, we will have a selling point right (stop-loss) under R1. If the
price excedes R2, a stop-loss is appied right under R2. This way, the ascending trend can be used and if the
price returns, the stop-losses may keep the gains and takes us away from a descending trend. The technique
of „Pivot Points” is very simple, but it does not mean that the points are reached constantly. For an improved
performance, it is recommanded to use this technique for shares with a high range of the price (a high H-L,
meaning a high volaility) and a high liquidity.
The usage of the pivot point technique
Usually, the crossing of an index with it’s average median produces points of entrance and exit (who’s
frequency depends if the median is made on more or less periods). We will use two new indexes, PP SMA3,
which is SMA (Pivot,3), meaning the simple mobile median of the index pivot on a period of 3 days, and
PP SMA5, meaning SMA(Pivot,5).
If the pivot is located above the PP SMA3, then the daily trend is considered as beeing ascendent. If PP is
below PP SMA3, then the daily trend is considered as beeing descendent. PP SMA5 is used to find the weekly
trend. In the same way, if PP is above PP SMA5, the trend is pozitive, and if not, it is negative. The next table
presents the data into a more simple way:
4. Conclusions
One of the most important issues from the stock market is the finding of the optimal moment for the selling
or buying of a share. The Bollinger Lines (presented in 2.) and the Pivot Points (presented in 3.) are two of
the indexes that can be used in a technical analysis of a share in order to optimize the conditions of a
transaction. It is recommanded that, before making the decission of buying or selling of a share, these indexes
sould be consulted and the decission has to be made related to their value.
Bibliography
1. Dalton, J. M., How the Stock Markets Works, New York Institute of Finance, Prentice-Hall, 1988
6. *** www.bvb.ro
7. *** www.educofin.ro
8. *** www.primet.ro
Terjemahan
The Bolliger Lines dan Pivot Points - metode untuk membuat keputusan terbaik di Bursa Efek
Silvia Dedu, asistent univ. drd., Akademi Ilmu Ekonomi, Bukares,
telp 0722.580269, email s_dedu@yahoo.com
Florentin erban, asistent univ. drd., Akademi Ilmu Ekonomi, Bukares,
telp 0723.148126, email florentinserban@yahoo.com
Di dalam kertas adalah disajikan dua indicator (BoligerGaris danTitik Pivot) yang dapat Digunakan dalam itu analisis
teknis saham untuk mengoptimalkan persyaratan transaksi di Bursa Efek. Adalah menjelaskan teknik menggunakan ini
indikator untuk menentukan momen optimal kita membeli atau menjual suatu saham.
Kata kunci: saham, Bolliger Lines, Pivot Point.
Klasifikasi JEL: C40
1. Support, resistance – istilah fundamental dalam analisis teknis suatu saham
Kursus dari bagian apapun, persediaan indeks pasar atau kurs berkembang antara beragam level dukungan dan
perlawanan.
Mendukung – mewakili itu nilai dari itu Bagikanpada yang itu kursusberhenti dan pergi kembali; itu kembali
mengambil tempat setelah jatuh. Pembeli dan penjual biasanya melihat level ini sebagai titik keseimbangan, ketika
menjual cosaya berhenti danitu pembelianadalah dimulai.Itulagi waktu inititik adalahtercapai,itu lebih kuatdia
adalah.Kapan diaistirahat, dia menjadi perlawanan untuk evolusi masa lalu.
resistensi- _mewakili nilaiberbagi di manakursus berhenti dan pergi back; comeback mengambil tempat setelah
pertumbuhan. Pembeli dan penjual biasanya melihat level ini sebagai titik keseimbangan, titik penjualanseni dan
pembelian dimulai. Itulagiresistensiadalahtercapai,itulebih kuat ituadalah.Kapandiarusak,diamenjadisebuah
mendukung evolusi masa lalu.
Pada grafik berikutnya, penyangga dilambangkan dengan S x , dan hambatan dilambangkan dengan R x .
3. Titik Pivot
Selama sebuah jual beli sidang, itu keseimbangan harga di antara berbeda level dari dukungant dan perlawanan,
level
dijelaskan dalampertamagugus kalimat. Umumnya,sebuah porosPP sayasamenunjuk padayang manaHarganya
adalahdiharapkanmengubahdia
kursus.
Kitaakanlebih jauhhadiahtdialimakomponendariitu porosteknik: S2 , _ S 1 , PP, R1 , _ R 2 danbagaimanake menghitung
mereka.
H = level harga maksimum dari hari terakhir
L = level harga minimum dari hari terakhir
C = harga penutupan dari hari terakhir
Poros
3
CLH
PP
++
=
Dukungan pertama
HPPS
−=
2
1
Perlawanan pertama
LPPR
−=
2
1
Dukungan kedua
)(
2
LHPPS
−−=
Perlawanan kedua
)(
2
LHPPR
−+=
porosharusmempertimbangkanpertamanilaiituseharusnyadiambilmemperhitungkansebelummemasukisebuah
transaksi.Hanya
Kapankamimencapai inipoitidakkami
akanmenjadisanggupketahujikakamiSebaiknyamemasukiatauKELUARsebuahtransaksi.Umumnya,jikaitu
harga berada di atas PP , situasinya dianggap 'bullish' , dan jika tidak, maka situasinya 'bearish' .
mari kitamenganggapituKapan itujual belisidangdimulai,itu hargaadalah di bawah PP . S 1 dan S 2 adalahitu
ituBerikutnyalebih rendah
levelyang dapatmenjaditersentuh(secara teoritis),tetapidiaadalahbukandiperlukan. Jika S 2
adalahtercapai,diaadalahbukandirekomendasikanke
membelitdia Bagikan, tetapi kami Sebaiknya tunggu sampai itu harga naik, mencapai PP danpergi lebih jauh menuju
R1 . _Jika pada itu
awal sesi perdagangan tdia harga di atasPP , mereka R 1 dan R 2 adalah tujuan yang seharusnyatercapai dan
itumungkinmenawarkan laba:jikaitu harga melebihi R1 , _kami akanmemilikisebuah penjualan titikright(stop
loss)dibawah R1 . _Jika itu
hargamelebihi R2 , _sebuahstop-lossadalahaplikasiBaikunder R2 . _Inicara,itu
naikkecenderunganbisamenjadidigunakandanjikaitu
pengembalian harga,itustop-lossmungkinSimpankeuntungandanmembawa kitajauhdarisebuahtren menurun.Ituteknik
dari Poin Pivot” isangat sederhana, tapiitu tidakberarti bahwapoin tercapai konstanly. Untuk perbaikan
kinerja, ituadalahdirekomendasikankemenggunakaniniteknik
untukberbagidengansebuahtinggijangkauandariharga(sebuahtinggiHL,
berarti volatilitas tinggi) dan likuiditas tinggi.
Penggunaan teknik titik pivot
Biasanya, itu persimpangan dari sebuah indeks akalh dia rata-rata median menghasilkan poin dari jalan masuk
dan KELUAR (siapa
frekuensi tergantungjikamedian adalahterbuat darilagiatau kurangperiode). Kitaakan menggunakandua baruindeks, PP
SMA 3,
yaitu SMA (Pivot ,3 ) , yang berarti median seluler sederhana dari pivot indeks pada periode 3 hari, dan
PP SMA 5, artinya SMA(Pivot ,5 ) .
Jikaitu poros adalah terletakdi atasitu PPSMA 3,kemudianitudailykecenderunganadalahdipertimbangkansebagai
lebahkekuasaan.Jika PP adalah
di bawah PP SMA 3, maka tren harian dianggap turun.PP SMA5 digunakan untuk mencari mingguan
kecenderungan. Begitu pula jika PP berada di atas PP SMA 5 maka trendnya positif, dan jika tidak maka trendnya negatif.
Meja berikutnya
menyajikan data ke dalam cara yang lebih sederhana:
4. Kesimpulan
Satu dariitupalingmasalah pentingdariitupasar sahamadalahpenemuandariitumomen optimaluntukitupenjualan
atau buying darisebuahBagikan.ItuBollingerGaris (disajikandi 2. )danituPorosPoin (disajikandi 3. )adalah untukdua dari
itu indeks itu bisa menjadi digunakan di sebuah teknis analisis dari sebuah Bagikan di memesan ke
mengoptimalkan tdia kondisi dari sebuah
transaksi. Disarankan sebelum mengambil keputusan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu saham, indeks-indeks ini
dapat dikonsultasikan dan keputusan harus dibuat terkait dengan nilainya.
Bibliografi