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Jeffrey S. Lantis
To cite this article: Jeffrey S. Lantis (2018) Nuclear cooperation with non-NPT member states?
An elite-driven model of norm contestation, Contemporary Security Policy, 39:3, 399-418, DOI:
10.1080/13523260.2017.1398367
ABSTRACT
Supporters of the nuclear nonproliferation regime argue that international
agreements, power politics, and emerging standards of legitimacy have
generated a robust nuclear nonproliferation norm. This optimism is mirrored
in early social constructivist international relations theory, which emphasizes
the constitutive and regulatory power of international norms. Conversely, this
article explores how recent developments in global politics and international
relations theory may show how vested players can change normative
architectures. This project develops a model of elite entrepreneurship in norm
change that includes stages of redefinition and substitution through
contestation. It conducts a plausibility probe of the model in the development
of the 2008 U.S.–India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, a case of U.S.-
driven norm change. The article concludes that this alternative agency-based
model lends insights on what may be a continuous, and consequential,
evolution of the nuclear nonproliferation norm.
In 2005, U.S. President George W. Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmo-
han Singh announced plans to finalize a U.S.–India Civil Nuclear Cooperation
Agreement (NCA). This news sent shockwaves through the international
community and represented a puzzling development for those committed
to the nuclear non-proliferation norm. India was a non-signatory to the
Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and a defiant
breakout state: The government detonated its first nuclear test explosion in
1974 and engaged in a series of dueling nuclear tests with Pakistan in 1998.
The international community had responded strongly to these actions in
the past, imposing a battery of sanctions on the two states in an effort to
send a clear message of nuclear restraint. Nevertheless, Bush and Singh
hailed a potential agreement as opening new avenues for civilian nuclear
cooperation and lifting prohibitions and sanctions that had been placed on
India for decades. Not only was the United States signaling that it would
engage with a nuclear pariah state, it was also breaching one of the central
understandings of the nonproliferation norm—that states that were signa-
tories to the NPT would not engage in nuclear trade with non-signatories
which operated without international safeguards.
This article explores the puzzle of U.S. willingness to contest the nonpro-
liferation norm and reconsider standards for nuclear cooperation agreements
at the same time it sought to shore-up international security and restrict the
spread of dangerous weapons of mass destruction. It contends that advances
in social constructivist theory offer a powerful lens to explain the puzzle of
U.S. norm contestation regarding the civilian nuclear trade. The article devel-
ops a new model to chart the evolution of policy away from standards of uni-
versal application to revised assessments of “responsible” nuclear partnership.
By redefining its commitment to the nonproliferation norm and pushing for
change in international institutions, the United States appears to have success-
fully practiced constructive norm substitution.
This study proceeds as follows. First, it surveys constructivist theory and its
evolution from a focus on the norm life cycle to contestation. Next, it draws
on insights from contestation theory, international law, and political psychol-
ogy to present a new model of elite-driven norm change. This model argues
that stages of norm contestation can be unpacked and linked to specific policy
behaviors. The article then analyzes the case study of the U.S.–India NCA,
which opened civil cooperation between the United States and a non-NPT
member state, through the lens of the norm change model. It traces key
actors and processes in stages of norm contestation. Finally, the study
draws implications for the evolution, functioning, and effects of norms.
about the implications of contestation for norm strength. Some argue that
contestation effectively can lead to the “death” of norms (McKeown, 2009;
Panke & Petersohn, 2012; Rosert & Schirmbeck, 2007). In contrast, Wiener
describes the potential for contestation to positively impact norms. Norm dis-
course is healthy, she argues, it represents a refinement process that is vital for
the continued life of (changed) norm architectures. In some circumstances,
contestation might even help shape political alternatives and revitalize
norms (Bloomfield & Scott, 2017; Deitelhoff & Zimmermann, 2016). These
different perspectives suggest that critical constructivist theory is in an excit-
ing phase of development and offer foundations for further exploration.
legislation was too lax. The ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee, Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) said during one hearing: “The admin-
istration must show Congress it will make us more secure by bringing India
into closer compliance with international non-proliferation norms” (“For
Bush,” 2006). Democratic Representative Ed Markey (D-MA) called the
idea an “historic nuclear failure” that would endanger U.S. national security.
He argued, “With one simple move, the president has blown a hole in the
nuclear rules that the entire world has been playing by” (“For Bush,” 2006).
A battery of experts who testified on the pending deal in hearings on
Capitol Hill warned that it would lead to an “erosion” of NSG guidelines.
Not only were the nonproliferation benefits of the deal “vastly overstated,”
they argued, “the supply of nuclear fuel to India would free up its existing
stockpile and capacity to produce HEU and plutonium for weapons” (Ben-
gelsdorf et al., 2005). Meanwhile, others maintained that in 2006 that while
they might be open to considering a change in the normative architecture,
the White House had done a bad job promoting redefinition. Representative
Gary Ackerman (D-NY) urged Bush to “get to work and make the case to
Congress or else the nuclear deal will blow up in his face” (Ackerman, 2006).
The Bush administration continued to lobby Congress in 2006 to reframe
attitudes toward India, and a substantial Indian-American lobby that favored
cooperation helped aid in this effort. Indian-American lobbies worked along-
side major corporations to help pressure the government to complete and
ratify the nuclear deal. The U.S.–India Political Action Committee
(USINPAC) was one of most active of the lobbying organizations with the
goal of promoting a broad vision for improvement in relations (Anderson,
2006a, p. A10). In the 2000s, USINPAC hosted a series of events and spon-
sored websites providing the economic and political rationale for the deal.
In Washington, Indian-Americans hired high profile lobbying groups
included Barbour, Griffith, and Rogers (headed by Robert Blackwill, former
U.S. ambassador to India) and Patton Boggs. A wide range of interest
groups came together for the cause, including the U.S.–India Business
Council, the Confederation of Indian Industries, and USINPAC, and the
U.S.–India Friendship Council, and the American Association of Physicians
of Indian Origin—collaborated in earnest for the first time to promote the
NCA (Kirk, 2008). One close observer, noted: the proposed U.S.–India
NCA “galvanized the usually fractured Indian American community into
united action like no previous issue … [Indian-Americans] played hard ball
politics and used sophisticated lobbying tactics to focus community attention
on the proposed legislation” (Anderson, 2006b, p. A12; Kirk, 2008).
With the backing of powerful lobbies and the support of sympathetic
members of the congressional India Caucus, including Senators Hillary
Clinton (D-NY) and John Cornyn (R-TX), the administration was able to
begin redefining public and legislative views of engagement. Over time,
410 J. S. LANTIS
officials were able to build bipartisan consensus for the deal. House Speaker
Pelosi (D-CA), argued: “It furthers our countries’ strategic relationship
while balancing nuclear non-proliferation concerns and India’s growing
energy needs” (CNN Politics, September 28, 2008). In March 2006, the
administration redrafted legislation to exempt India from certain restrictions
on nuclear exports under the 1954 Atomic Energy Act. And in December
2006, Congress formalized legal exemptions that authorized the agreement,
but also allowed Congress a role in oversight of implementation of the
agreement.
Constructive norm substitution: Bush administration officials knew that
they would need international support for implementation of any new civilian
agreement with India, and they practiced constructive norm substitution in
multilateral forums. Their efforts focused on gaining endorsement from the
international community in the form of NSG and IAEA votes to allow the
U.S.–India deal before the agreement could go into effect. Because the NSG
operated on a principle of consensus, U.S. officials had to secure a unanimous
vote of support.
The Bush administration made the case to its international partners that it
had extracted major concessions from India: The government would accept
international inspections of nuclear facilities where they had never occurred
before, and it would close one of two breeder reactors dedicated to the pro-
duction of weapons-grade plutonium. India also promised to maintain its
moratorium on nuclear testing imposed after 1998, and support negotiations
on the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (Mistry & Ganguly, 2006). Given that
experts believed India had produced enough plutonium sufficient for 65–
110 nuclear weapons prior to the deal, they argued that this could stabilize
the regional nuclear standoff with Pakistan and China by putting India on
a glide path to “only” about 100–150 nuclear weapons.
The United States and key allies also called for revisiting institutional pol-
icies to deal with 21st-century realities. Officials argued that the old ways of
nonproliferation simply were not effective and that the international commu-
nity needed to consider alternatives in a broader marketplace of ideas. For
example, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (2006) maintained, “our past
non-proliferation policies toward India had not achieved their purposes
[and] left us with a more dangerous energy future.” The agreement would
“advance energy security, further environmental protection, foster economic
and technological development in both our countries, bolster international
security, and strengthen the global non-proliferation regime” (Rice, 2006).
Between the lines, officials argued that new approaches—including the nor-
malization of nuclear cooperation with NPT non-signatories—had to be con-
sidered viable for 21st-century security. Undersecretary of State Nicholas
Burns posed a rhetorical diplomatic question to allies: “Are we better off con-
tinuing to implement an ineffective and ultimately self-defeating proliferation
CONTEMPORARY SECURITY POLICY 411
regime against India or bringing India in?” (as cited in Brookings Institution,
2008).
Deliberations in the NSG on the question began in 2006, and chief diplo-
mats continued to debate the issue for two years. In August 2008, delegates at
the conference could not agree on an exemption for India, nor on the need to
restructure its existing restrictions for the modern age of nuclear commerce.
Several governments at the time, including Norway, Ireland, Austria, and New
Zealand, were reluctant to support the deal because of a lack of conditions in
the proposed exemption. That launched a period of intense U.S. diplomacy to
persuade its allies that the existing standards were ill-fitting for the contem-
porary proliferation scene and that an exemption and reconsideration of
standing principles was in order. By September 2008, the United States had
secured support for a consensus agreement to exempt India from its existing
rules. But the group extracted conditions from India in the form of a pledge to
the NSG that it would not share sensitive nuclear technology or material with
others and would not test weapons.
Outcome: Following extensive efforts to redefine its commitment to nuclear
cooperation, President Bush signed the Henry J. Hyde United States and India
Nuclear Cooperation and Promotion Act into law in December 2006. This
cleared the way to negotiate terms of the NCA with India. In 2008, with
the support of both the U.S. and Indian legislatures, the issue was then
taken up by the IAEA Board of Governors for review of the safeguards agree-
ment and the Nuclear Suppliers Group for approval of an exemption to its
rules (Ramesh, 2008). In August, the IAEA adopted an inspection plan
crucial to the India nuclear cooperation agreement. Under pressure from
U.S. diplomats, Director General Mohammed El Baradei said that while the
agreement was not comprehensive or full in scope, “[i]t satisfies India’s
needs while maintaining all of the agency’s legal requirements” (as cited in
Shanahan, 2008). Three weeks later, the U.S. brought the issue to the NSG
for consideration of the waiver, further underscoring the depth of the com-
mitment by determined leaders on both sides to see this norm change
through to its completion. Bush officials again lobbied their fellow diplomats
for months, and the NSG agreed to a “clean waiver” exemption for India in
September 2008.
a dozen NCAs under consideration by Congress between 2005 and 2015, and
some of these agreements became a source of friction between the White
House and Capitol during the Bush and Obama administrations. Redefinition
debates emerged over deals that apply shifting standards regarding enrich-
ment and reprocessing (ENR) technology restrictions. Given the risks of
diversion of materials or technology from civilian to military use, NCAs
often include such restrictions consistent with multilateral nonproliferation
controls and full-scope safeguards programs. The United States typically
does not export this technology and does not allow the reprocessing of
U.S.-origin spent fuel without prior consent. However, this issue became con-
tentious again in relation to establishment of terms for the India deal, as well
as NCAs with the United Arab Emirates and South Korea (a renewal), and
requests from other governments for technology waivers in the 2010s (Kerr,
Nikitin, & Holt, 2014).
Once again, President Bush helped launch the reconsideration of some of
these standards, arguing that he was ready “to think differently” about foreign
policy. He advocated a new approach in which “the non-proliferation policies
of other countries would be judged more in terms of whether they constituted
a threat to U.S. national security than whether they contributed to strength-
ening the international regime” (McGoldrick et al., 2005). The president first
announced that the United States should require that all new NCAs include a
clause banning ENR, and it attempted to force such technology bans in its
dealings with countries in the Middle East. Officials signed a series of
MoUs with countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, the United
Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Bahrain, that carried the clause. In 2009, it fina-
lized the first deal of this kind with the United Arab Emirates, in which the
United Arab Emirates pledged not to conduct enrichment or reprocessing.
The Obama administration, which inherited the agreement from its predeces-
sor, hailed this new restriction as setting a “gold standard” for future NCAs.
However, the U.S. declaration of new standards regarding ENR technology
turned out to be surprisingly short-lived. The Obama administration
opened negotiations on civilian NCAs with the Kingdom of Jordan,
Vietnam, and South Korean renewal that forced U.S. concessions on these
questions.
At the same time, the NSG continued to debate standards for NCAs and
technology transfers. These debates intensified in the past two decades as
the demand for nuclear technology assistance grew. In 2010 and 2011, the
NSG continued to debate the future of standards for nuclear cooperation.
In June 2011, members agreed on new global terms of trade for ENR technol-
ogies. But the deal once again represented a broad compromise—a patchwork
of agreements and stipulations to try to regulate the trade. Standing NSG
guidelines to “exercise restraint” in decisions about exports did not impose
specific conditions on sensitive trade. But new 2011 guidelines established a
CONTEMPORARY SECURITY POLICY 413
set of stringent conditions for countries considering ENR trade (such as full
compliance with the NPT and comprehensive safeguards). These changes
were designed to reduce some of the “subjectivity” of past criteria, and
instead focus on responsibility—a “credible and coherent rationale for pursu-
ing enrichment and reprocessing capability” (Hibbs, 2010). The net result was
that more states could be considered eligible for sensitive nuclear trade and
strategic partnerships.
Finally, this debate about the evolution of standards for NCAs took a new
turn in 2016, when the Obama administration began actively lobbying for
Indian membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. That move provoked
objections from a number of NSG participating governments concerned
that, once India were a full member of the group, it would seek to block
efforts to tighten the rules, including on ENR. China expressed its opposition
to Indian membership on a number of grounds, including concerns about its
implementation of safeguards restrictions. At the same time, China supported
Pakistan’s formal application for membership in the NSG. Both countries
were effectively seeking validation as responsible members of the nuclear
club who also happened to be non-signatories to the NPT. Meetings of the
NSG in 2016 and 2017 ended inconclusively on the controversial question
of participation by India and Pakistan.
Conclusion
This article has highlighted the special role that elite norm entrepreneurs play
in the (surprisingly delicate) balance of international norms cooperation. In
the case of the U.S.–India NCA, the Bush administration appeared to orches-
trate a “successful” norm change. The international community embraced
India’s newfound status as a responsible nuclear power, and the Obama
administration maintained and expanded areas of policy coordination. This
and related developments in the past decade suggests that the nonprolifera-
tion network can evolve over time in response to special combinations of
actors, events, and circumstances.
The U.S.–India NCA case demonstrates how elites can revisit normative
commitments in light of new circumstances and opportunities. It highlights
the contested nature of international norms, as well as the need to better
understand the scope conditions associated with norm contestation. Recent
advancements in critical constructivist international relations theory have
begun to explore such factors, including work by Bloomfield on norm
“anti-preneurs,” studies of contestation through discourse (Dixon, 2017),
and analyses of norm development without great powers (Bower, 2017).
The argument that redefinition can occur in domestic settings seems manifest
in ongoing dialogues among policy-makers regarding commitments to inter-
national norms. This also sometimes translates to meaningful debate about
414 J. S. LANTIS
Acknowledgements
This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Nuclear Norms in Global Govern-
ance Project in Monterey, CA, March 2014. He received valuable comments on the
manuscript from Maria Rost Rublee, Avner Cohen, Jeffrey Knopf, Nina Tannenwald,
CONTEMPORARY SECURITY POLICY 415
Scott Sagan, Carmen Wunderlich, William Walker, Steven Lee, Lyndon Burford, and
the anonymous reviewers for Contemporary Security Policy.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Funding
This article has benefited from funding under U.S. Institute of Peace Annual Grant,
Nuclear Norms in Global Governance #160-12F, Australian National University,
and the Monterey Institute of International Studies.
Notes on contributor
Jeffrey S. Lantis is Professor of Political Science and Chair of the Global & Inter-
national Studies Program at The College of Wooster. His teaching and research
specializations include international security, norms, strategic culture, nuclear non-
proliferation, and foreign policy analysis. A former Fulbright Senior Scholar in Aus-
tralia, Lantis is author of recent books, including Arms and Influence: Technology
Innovations and the Evolution of International Security Norms (Stanford University
Press, 2016) and United States Foreign Policy in Action (Wiley-Blackwell, 2013),
and editor of Strategic Cultures and Security Policies in the Asia-Pacific (Routledge,
2016). In addition, Lantis has published numerous book chapters and articles in aca-
demic journals including Foreign Policy Analysis, International Security, and Inter-
national Studies Perspectives.
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