Poker Strategy
HEAD GAMES: THREE TOP PROS TACKLE THE EARLY
STAGES OF TOURNAMENTS
The Pros: Daniel Weinman, Daniel
Strelitz, and Scott Ball
Craig Tapscott: What kind of infor-
mation should a player look for during
the first hour after they sit down at a
table for a live tournament?
Daniel Weinman: e first hour of
a live tournament is perhaps the most
important time of the tournament
outside of the final table. It’s very like-
ly that you’ll have a mix of profession-
als and recreational players depending
on the size of the buy-in, and it’s
important to obtain and process as
much information as possible from
these players. is concept extends to
each new day of the tournament, with
the small exception of being able to
do a bit of research beforehand on day
two and beyond.
I tend to look for a few things at
the beginning of day one of a large
field MTT. e most important factor
is to identify the weaker players who
are going to be the source of much of
our chip accumulation. Pay attention
and take note of anyone playing what
you feel to be a poor strategy (lots of
limping preflop, poor bet sizing or
very passive/overly aggressive post-
flop). en you can deviate from your
32 CARDPLAYER.COM
By Craig Tapscott
baseline strategy in order to capitalize
on these weaker players. I think a lot
of newer players these days coming
from a theory-based approach do this
very poorly and miss out on a lot of
easy chips in the first few levels of a
tournament.
On the other hand, we also want
to find out who the stronger players
are and play a more theory-based
approach against them. e early
stages of a tournament tend to play
very deep and more closely resemble a
cash game. Most of the large pots will
tend to be played between stronger vs.
weaker players, as the stronger players
can simply find better spots than bat-
tling with each other.
Tournament formats other than
no-limit hold’em also present a unique
opportunity in the beginning stag-
es. Oftentimes in mix game tourna-
ments, especially the $1,500 events at
the WSOP, you will often find your-
self against players who are particu-
larly weak at one or multiple games
in the mix. Some players who prefer
the limit games may shy away from
the big bet games, or vice versa. Pay
attention to this and use it to your
advantage as you see fit.
Daniel Strelitz: First thing to do is
to pay attention to how people are
playing. ere are stereotypes that
help, such as fashion, age, country
of origin, etc. But seeing a few show-
downs in the early rounds can be very
revealing about how your opponents
are playing. Even if you don’t pay
attention to any part of the hand
except showdown, it will help you
learn so much about your tablemates.
Oftentimes seeing the under-the-gun
player showdown with J-5 suited is
most of the info you need to adjust
versus them.
If you show up a bit late, there is
more to learn right away, mainly chip
stacks. ere are a few tricks you can
learn just from seeing peoples stacks.
If someone has all the ante chips on
the table, they aren’t going to be very
tight. On the other hand, if a guy has
all the colors of his chips lined up,
they’re likely to be on the tighter side.
Scott Ball: I am always adjusting at
the table in regard to what is happen-
ing moment to moment. ere are a
few key factors I always keep an eye
out for when entering a hand. One
is my own stack size. When I have a
deeper stack, I’m more comfortable
VOLUME 35 / ISSUE 2

Daniel Weinman
pushing other players around, as well
as maximizing my ICM potential.
Another big factor for me is adjust-
ing my playing strategy depending
on who I’m up against. At the table
against elite players, like Galen Hall
(who I know is deeply steeped in
game theory-based play), I am going
to approach a hand differently than
against someone who plays more rec-
reationally. With a player who has less
experience, I can play more exploit-
atively and apply more pressure,
mainly because I’ve paid attention
and have an understanding of my
opponents.
Also with more inexperienced
players, I am looking for who is
overplaying hands and over bluff-
ing. Are they playing more cautious?
More exploitive? Why are they mak-
ing these particular moves? is is
where paying attention throughout
the day becomes key in how I play in
the present moment. It’s important
to pay attention all of the time, every
day, from day one to day five. You
never know when that information
will be useful in the future.
Craig Tapscott: Can you share a few
of the biggest mistakes you see players
make during early stages of MTTs?
And what’s your goal during the early
stages?
Daniel Weinman: I think there are
three major mistakes that a lot of
recreational players or even some pros
make early in MTTs. First is the
apparent need to “profit” in chips
each level. I see a ton of new players
who have these mental goals along the
lines of, “I need x number of chips at
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Poker Strategy
Daniel Strelitz Scott Ball
A lot of players have the mentality that they
should completely avoid big pots and big
decisions early in a tournament for fear of going
broke, but this couldn’t be further from the truth.
The first few levels offer great opportunities to
pick up a ton of chips if you are willing to take
some risks. Whether you bust a tournament on
hand number one or are the bubble boy on day
three, you get the same exact payout.
the end of level 1/2/3/4/5.” Your chip have this stack early on day one.
stack in a tournament is not going to e third mistake I often see is
be linear. Sure, in an ideal world we a fear of going broke in the early
win every single pot, and our chips levels of an MTT. A lot of players
stack never decreases, but that’s a have the mentality that they should
pretty unreasonable ask. Instead, we completely avoid big pots and big
need to just try to maximize our EV decisions early for fear of going broke,
with every decision in the tournament but this couldn’t be further from the
and live with the results. truth. e first few levels offer great
e second big mistake ties in opportunities to pick up a ton of
with the first in a way. A lot of times chips if you are willing to take some
I will see players just completely give risks. Whether you bust a tournament
up when their stack isn’t what they on hand number one or are the bubble
feel it should be at a certain point of boy on day three, you get the same
the day. Most tournaments these days exact payout.
start with 40k or so in chips, and it’s Early in tournaments, my oppo-
fairly common for newer players to nents dictate my style of play. As
just send it in if they find themselves mentioned above, I have no “goal”
left with 10-20k chips in the first per se, but I simply want to make
few levels. What they fail to realize the best decisions possible at every
is their stack still has significant real opportunity. At a very passive table,
money value and even 10k chips at I will play like a maniac and try to
an early level like 150-300-300 is a win as many pots as possible. On the
totally workable 33 big blinds. Later other hand, at a very tough table I’ll
in the tournament, players would kill play a more theory-based strategy and
to have 33 bigs, but for some reason try to win whatever chips the table
they find it totally unreasonable to allows me to.
CARDPLAYER.COM 33
 Poker Strategy
Daniel Strelitz: e biggest mistake
people make early in tournaments
is playing too many hands. Often
people feel like they have so many
chips, and it’s so early in the tourna-
ment, they can splash around as much
as they want. In reality they are just
bleeding chips while trying to get
lucky. en when they go deeper, they
start playing more “seriously” and end
up playing too tight.
My strategy is generally to play the
opposite of the table, if everyone is
playing super loose, then I tighten up
and wait for good hands. If the table is
playing scared, then I take advantage
and try to steal as much as they let me.
Another of the biggest mistakes
people make is not showing up on
time. You miss all the deep stack
splashing around when you wait too
long to register.
Scott Ball: One of the biggest mis-
takes players make is they try to win
the MTT on day one; they don’t
understand what a marathon a tour-
nament can be. You can’t accumulate
all the chips on day one. I talked
about this in my previous answer,
they don’t pay enough attention in the
early stages. ey are on their phones
or laptop, scrolling Twitter or some-
thing. Generally lackadaisical.
Also, when people aren’t focusing,
they give away so much information.
eir behavior will suddenly change
when they have a big hand. ey
could be focused on their phone or
yapping away, and all of a sudden,
they get still and focused. Hmmm…
I wonder what you have now? Aces?
ey might all of a sudden start han-
dling their chips differently. ese
tells give off so much you can pick
up on. Watch for players who are not
consistent with their physical actions.
I once read an interview with
[online poker legend and two-
time WSOP bracelet winner] Chris
Moorman that has stuck with me.
He talked about how he stays focused
throughout the duration of an event.
He stays very immersed in every
action at the table from beginning
to end. I’ve learned to do the same
myself. I even want to know the exact
count of my stack and an opponent’s,
not an estimate. is keeps my mind
razor sharp and very present in the
moment. ♠

TOURNAMENT HAND MATCHUP

2021 World Poker Tour Rock’N’Roll Poker Open
Analysis
COMMENTARY:
e 2021 World Poker Tour Rock’N’Roll Poker
Open main event attracted the largest turnout in
the tournament’s history with 1,566 entries. When
$3,500 No-Limit Hold’em Main Event this hand began, just five remained with a shot at
the title and the top prize of $778,490. Selahaddin
Selahaddin Bedir Gediminas Uselis Bedir was in the middle of the pack, while
11,000,000 Chips 8,900,000 Chips Gediminas Uselis was the short stack despite hav-
ing nearly 45 big blinds. Bedir raised with pocket
Q Q
© WPT/Joe Giron

J 9 queens and both chip leader Harout Ghazarian and

Uselis came along out of the blinds. Uselis flopped
% trip nines and checked when action got to him.
% Q Q Bedir’s continuation bet knocked Ghazarian out of
the pot before Uselis unleashed a check-raise. Bedir
J 9
%
still had an overpair to the board, but had to have
his antennas up after the big blind defender check-
Harout Ghazarian
PREFLOP raised a paired flop. e turn made things worse
for Bedir, as one semi-bluff he was beating (the 7-6
17,700,000 Chips With five players remaining and blinds straight draw) would have improved. Uselis fired
of 100,000-200,000 and a big blind ante 1,500,000 into the pot of 3,800,000. Bedir called
A 10
of 200,000, Selahaddin Bedir raised yet again and the K♣ on the end put an overcard
to 400,000 from the button. Harout to Bedir’s queens on the board while also making a
% backdoor flush possible. Uselis made an interesting
% Ghazarian and Gediminas Uselis called
adjustment to his bet sizing on the river, choosing a
from blinds.
A 10
smaller sizing than his turn bet in response to what
he might have perceived as a scary card to Bedir’s
range. e smaller bet of 1,300,000 into a pot of
TURN

9 9 8 5 K
FLOP

RIVER

6,800,000 was likely designed to target precisely the

type of holding Bedir had in this instance: a strong
preflop hand that hadn’t improved beyond one pair
post flop. Bedir was getting laid more than 6:1 and
9 9 8 5 K

Ghazarian and Uselis checked, and Bedir made the call with his queens. He slipped to the
Uselis bet 1,500,000, Uselis bet 1,300,000, short stack after the hand, while Uselis surged into
bet 400,000. Ghazarian folded, and Uselis and Bedir called. and Bedir called.
check-raised to 1,200,000. Bedir called. third place on the leaderboard.

NOTE: WINNING PERCENTAGES DO NOT INCLUDE TIES. ODDS PROVIDED BY CARDPLAYER.COM /POKER-TOOLS/ODDS-CALCULATOR/TEXAS-HOLDEM
34 CARDPLAYER.COM VOLUME 35 / ISSUE 2

Four-Time Bracelet Winner Anthony Zinno
Talks Seven Card Stud Tournament Strategy
By Bernard Lee
e 2021 World Series of Poker saw
88 bracelets awarded live at the Rio
All-Suite Hotel and Casino, while 11
were awarded online during the nearly
eight-week series. In this series, I will
be interviewing 2021 WSOP bracelet
winners. ese champions will provide
observations, tips, and strategies for
you, the readers of Card Player, about
the specific poker game in which they
captured their 2021 bracelet.
The Event: $10,000 Seven Card
Stud Championship
The Winner: Anthony Zinno
Cranston, Rhode Island’s Anthony
Zinno topped a field of 62 in the
stud championship event, earning
$182,872 and his third career brace-
let. Just days later, he would go on to
win his fourth bracelet in the $1,500
H.O.R.S.E. event.
Similar to most of the poker play-
ers of his generation, the 40-year-old
former lawyer began his poker career
playing no-limit hold’em. e dapper
gentleman became extremely profi-
cient at the game as he captured the
Season XIII (2014-2015) World Poker
Tour Player of the Year honors. During
that memorable run, Zinno won his
second and third WPT main event
titles and earned almost $1.4 million.
Back in 2012, however, he began
dabbling in mixed games and commit-
ted himself to improving.
© PokerGO
“My goal has been to get 5-10%
better at each game per year,” Zinno
said. “So, over the years, I tried to keep
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER CardPlayerMedia
getting better and see where it takes
me. It has been working well.”
at may be an understatement as
all four of Anthony’s WSOP bracelets
have come in a different discipline. In
addition to winning the stud cham-
pionship and H.O.R.S.E. event this
year, Zinno also has titles in the 2015
$25,000 pot-limit Omaha champion-
ship, and the 2019 $1,500 pot-limit
Omaha eight-or-better event. He also
has final tables in limit hold’em, razz,
and triple draw.
Zinno’s two bracelets kept alive
a streak that dates back to 2000 of
at least one player winning multiple
WSOP bracelets in the same calen-
dar year. is year actually set the
record for the most multiple win-
ners ever which included WSOP POY
Josh Arieh, as well as Jeremy Ausmus,
Scott Ball, Michael Addamo, Kevin
Gerhart, Julien Martini (won two
bracelets at WSOP Europe) and also a
few players who won a combination of
online and live bracelets in 2021.
I spoke with Anthony for my radio
show and asked him to share some
thoughts about playing in seven card
stud tournaments. You can watch
the full interview at YouTube.com/
BernardLeePoker or listen on iTunes.
Bernard: Congrats on an incredible
2021 WSOP. Two bracelets and you
[were] in the race for 2021 WSOP
POY.
Anthony: anks. It has been
incredible. From the beginning, I
Poker Strategy
really thought I could have a shot at
WSOP POY this year.
Bernard: All four of your career
bracelets have been in different games,
which is very impressive. Let’s talk
about your first one this year, the
$10,000 stud championship which
had some of the best stud players in
the world competing for this cov-
eted bracelet. ( e explosive final
table featured Stephen Chidwick,
Jack McClelland, and a red-hot Phil
Hellmuth.)
Anthony: Yeah, I’m extremely happy
to win this bracelet as I feel very com-
fortable with stud. I’ve been playing it
since 2013, but I started to play a lot
more in 2015 and 2016.
Bernard: I also love the game as it
was the first poker game I ever played
in a casino back in the 90’s. Let’s talk
about some key strategies when play-
ing in a stud tournament.
Anthony: Sure. I guess the first
thing, which may seem obvious, is to
focus on playing solid starting hands.
is initial decision, which is often
called third street, is obviously a criti-
cal one. If you start with marginal
hands, you can quickly get into trou-
ble if the next couple of streets (or
cards) begin to connect with your
starting hand.
Overall, you want to start with a
solid hand such as a premium pair or,
the best possible, rolled-up trips. But
you can’t just wait for those types of
hands as they are rare. So, to branch
out, you want to start with hands that
have multiple potential and can get
you somewhere.
For example, you don’t want to
start with just 5-6-7 offsuit and just
assume you will get a straight. It
would be better to have other pos-
sibilities like at least two of the same
suit. Or if you have a pair, it would
be so much better to have the third
card suited or at least in the range to
make a straight or better yet both.
For example, a pair of sevens (7♥ 7♦)
with the 6♥ would be better than (7♥
7♦) 10♠ even though the third card is
technically higher. Try to go to battle
with hands like that.
Bernard: Are there any other streets
CARDPLAYER.COM 35
 Poker Strategy
that are critical for players to pay
particular attention to in stud tourna-
ments?
Anthony: Absolutely. Maybe even
more important is fifth street where
the big bet (twice the small bet) kicks
in. You have to make the biggest deci-
sion on that street because you have
to decide whether you are going to go
with this hand all the way to the end
(seventh street) or give it up.
You can get to fifth street without
losing a lot of chips because you have
two small bets on third and fourth
street. But once you get to fifth, you
are going to have to make big decisions
because you will often face a big bet
on every following street and it can
get expensive.
Bernard: What else would you rec-
ommend to novice stud players?
Anthony: is is a game where you
really need to pay close attention to
the up cards. In no-limit hold’em,
players are told to play close attention,
but you are watching the players for
betting patterns and sizing. is is not
the case in stud as the betting amounts
are set on every street.
Instead, watching the cards is criti-
cal. What cards are out, what are
available, what can complete a hand
like flushes and straights. You want to
have playability with your hand with
no or very few dead cards.
Bernard: Can you give the readers
some examples and further describe
“playability” as it relates to stud?
Anthony: Sure. Let’s start with
pairs. Starting with a pair in the hole
(two starting face down cards) like 6-6
can be very strong as they are well hid- like you don’t have a good memory
den. Let’s say you have a queen kicker for cards. And fi nally, practice to get
up. Now, you can raise to represent a experience, even in small level games,
pair of Queens. But if a six or a queen whether at a casino or online.
is an upcard in someone else’s hand, I have put in hours of practice and
your hand has less playability. have seen so many different hands
Bernard: What about drawing and situations. With practice, you will
hands like flushes and straights? get used to paying attention to the
Anthony: For flushes and straights, up cards. Stud is a classic. Enjoy the
you really have to play attention to the game. Poker should be fun!
cards that are up. ree flush cards are The Finish: After earning his second
great starting hands, but if multiple bracelet in the $1,500 H.O.R.S.E.
same suits are upcards, your hand’s event, Zinno was among the leaders
playability drops down. in the 2021 WSOP POY race. He
Also, for straight draws, you want cashed in 10 events in total, captur-
to watch out for the cards that are ing his two bracelets while earning
directly connected. For example, if almost $500,000 during the series
you start with J-10-9, you want to to bring his career earnings to $10.9
watch out for any eights and queens. million. As a result of his perfor-
Again, your playability drops down if mance, he finished 12th in the 2021
multiple connecting cards are already WSOP POY race. ♠
out in other player’s hands.
Bernard: Since betting amounts are
fi xed, can you give any advice on bet-
ting during stud tournaments?
Anthony: Aggression in stud high
is key, especially in tournaments.
Remember, there is only one winner
in the pot, this is not a split game, so
you want to three-bet and knock the
drawing player out when you have a
solid hand. You want to isolate and get
heads-up with an opponent. ree-
way hands just increase your risk of
losing the pot. You may not win a
monster but, overall, in tournaments,
you want to be slow and steady and
make small, consistent gains.
Bernard: Any fi nal words of advice?
Anthony: Couple of things. Don’t
be intimidated, especially if you feel

EXPLORING MODERN POKER THEORY: WHAT IS GTO?

By Michael Acevedo

GTO stands for game theory optimal, and it’s a whole
branch of mathematics. In poker, however, the term is
applied somewhat loosely and is used synonymously for the
Nash Equilibrium.
Nash Equilibrium is a set of strategies where:
• Players are clairvoyant. Each player knows every other
player’s exact strategy.
• All players are maximally exploiting each other simul-
taneously.
• No player can unilaterally change their strategy to
improve their own expectation.
ere is a lot of math involved here but instead, let’s study
a simple example of Nash Equilibrium to get our bearings.
The Rock, Paper, Scissors Game
Imagine two players, Rob and Alex. Rob has a very simple
strategy. He always chooses rock. As you may have already
guessed, this strategy is highly exploitable as Alex can always
choose paper and crush Rob.
So clearly, Rob has to employ a different strategy. But if
he starts to always choose scissors, then Alex can adjust to
always choose rock. Rob has to come up with a more complex
strategy that Alex can’t easily exploit.
e solution to this game is for both players to stay bal-
anced and choose each option one-third of the time, and this
constitutes a Nash Equilibrium.
GTO In Poker
Poker, is of course, way more complex than Rock, Paper,
Scissors, and a full solution of the game hasn’t been found.
But we can break it down into smaller, easier-to-solve pieces
and use GTO principles to play stronger, more-difficult-to-

36 CARDPLAYER.COM VOLUME 35 / ISSUE 2


exploit poker, while making it easier for us to find leaks in
our opponents’ games and exploit their weaknesses.
Poker can be played for many motives, such as having
fun, socializing, and pursuing glory, but the inherent goal of
the game is to make money. More accurately, to generate and
maximize profit.
What is profit in poker?
Profit = Opponent Mistakes - Our Mistakes
In other words, to be able to make money in poker, you
don’t need to be actually good at the game, you just need to
be better than those you play against. While playing GTO
isn’t a requirement to be profitable in every game, what hap-
pens when you start facing tougher opposition?
Playing poker at your kitchen table against your drunk
buddies isn’t the same as playing against the world’s best at a
major final table or a high-stakes cash game.
Poker can be learned by experience without any theory
study, but the process just takes too much time. Some people
are faster than others, but even with infinite time there is
simply too much to the game to figure it out on your own.
Just like in chess, players have been accumulating knowl-
edge generation by generation. Over time, humans discov-
ered that move 1. a4 doesn’t allow white to play for an advan-
tage while 1. e4 does. Now with the aid of computers, players
can easily find out what is the best continuation on move 24
or even move 60 within seconds, which is something impos-
sible for humans to achieve on their own.
Similarly in poker, humans can quickly find out that
opening a hand like 7-2 offsuit from under-the-gun in a nine-
max table with 100 big blinds is really bad and will cost you
a lot of money over the long run. But what about a hand like
Poker Strategy
J-T offsuit? Is that a profitable hand to open or not? What
about at a six-max table? Does it make any difference? What
if we change the stack size? What about more complex situa-
tions like facing a re-raise out of position with 40 big blinds.
What type of hands are profitable calls, and what are the best
hands to go all-in with if you don’t want to be exploited by
a crafty opponent?
Now we have access to GTO solvers which are tools that
run calculations for us and are useful to find approximations
to Nash Equilibrium for subsections of the game such as pre-
flop ranges, flop continuation betting strategies, and much
more. But the purpose of these tools isn’t to try to memorize
charts and play a robotic style, but to understand the game
mechanics which will help us play better poker so we are
tougher to play against while also capable of capitalizing in
our opponent’s leaks.
For example, you will be at a huge advantage on the poker
table if next time you are sitting UTG in a tournament with
50 bbs, you know that you can open about 15% hands (6-6+,
A-J offsuit+, K-J offsuit+, A-4 suited+, and 10-9 suited+) while
if you are at the button you can open about 53% of your
hands (2-2+, A-2 offsuit+, K-5 offsuit+, Q-7 offsuit+, 9-8
offsuit+ J-2 suited+ and 5-4 suited+).
And you’ll know the reason why you can open more
hands from the button than from UTG is simply because
of the likelihood of someone waking up with a strong hand
behind you when you are UTG and that you will also have
to sometimes play out of position when called. While if you
are on the button you only have to worry about two players
and you are also guaranteed to be in position for the rest of
the hand.

TOURNAMENT HAND MATCHUP2021 World Poker Tour Rock’N’Roll Poker Open

COMMENTARY:
Analysis
Picking up pocket aces in no-limit hold’em is one
of the most exciting feelings a player can get. at
excitement was likely replaced with dread as this hand
$3,500 No-Limit Hold’em Main Event played out for Jacob Ferro, thanks to a creative and
committed bluff pulled off by Clayton Maguire. It
folded to Ferro in the cutoff and he looked down at
Jacob Ferro Harout Ghazarian the best starting hand in the game. He made it 2.25
14,400,000 Chips 17,100,000 Chips times the big blind and received two callers. Neither
Harout Ghazarian or Maguire flopped all that much
A A
© WPT/Joe Giron

10 8 in terms of immediate pairs or draws. Ghazarian

checked to Ferro and he made a continuation bet of
% roughly 42 percent of the size of the pot. Maguire had
% A A 10 8 just king high with some backdoor flush and straight
% possibilities. His hand was certainly not strong
enough to continue with a flat call. Instead, he opted
to make a small raise to 1,900,000, likely hoping to
PREFLOP draw folds from Ferro’s ace-high holdings or perhaps
even weaker pocket pairs below queens. Ghazarian got
Clayton Maguire
With five players remaining and blinds of out of the way and Ferro made the call with his pock-
8,700,000 Chips 100,000-200,000 and a big blind ante of et aces. e turn paired the bottom card from the flop
200,000, Jacob Ferro raised to 450,000 while also giving Maguire a flush draw. Ferro, likely
K 5 now wary of the situation, opted to control the size of
from the cutoff. Clayton Maguire called the pot a bit with a check. Maguire checked behind
% from the button, and Harout Ghazarian despite picking up a draw and the river brought a
% K 5 called from the big blind. blank. Ferro, perhaps emboldened by his opponent’s
% check back on the turn, made a value bet of 1,900,000
into the pot of 5,450,000. Maguire thought it over
Q 6 3 3 10 before electing to raise all-in for 6,350,000 with his
RIVER
TURN
FLOP

missed flush draw. Only Maguire knows how strong

of a hand he thought he could take Ferro off of, but
10 it ultimately was enough to fold out the best two-pair
holding possible. Ferro laid down the pocket aces and
Q 6 3 3
Ghazarian checked, and Ferro bet Ferro checked, and Ferro bet 1,900,000. Maguire Maguire dragged the sizable pot without showdown.
700,000. Maguire raised to 1,900,000. Maguire was ultimately eliminated in fifth place,
Maguire checked moved all-in for 6,350,000,
earning $211,925 for his strong showing in this event.
Ghazarian folded, and Ferro called. behind. and Ferro folded.

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 Poker Strategy
Ranges like the ones above are outputs from GTO solv-
ers which use supercomputers to estimate Nash Equilibrium
approximations. e solver finds them by “playing” against
itself, running thousands of iterations where all players in the
simulation try to maximally exploit each other.
It would be very tough for a human player to come up
with anything better on their own. As such, these ranges can
safely be used even against the toughest opponents (assuming
you can handle yourself post-flop).
But those ranges aren’t set in stone. Let’s continue with
our previous example of a button tournament range with
50-bb stacks. If you happen to understand the underlying
GTO principles and you know your opponents very well, you
can adjust your strategy just like Alex did in the Rock, Paper,
Scissors game. Basically, if you know that Rob ‘only plays
rock,’ you might be able to open many more hands from that
button. As much as 80 to 100% of hands if the blinds are
especially weak and passive.
is was just an oversimplified explanation of GTO and
a tiny example of how it can be used in real poker, but the
applications are pretty much infinite, and the heuristics that
can be extracted from solver work are changing the game
forever. ings like when is it optimal to use small continu-
ation bet sizes or overbet the pot, what type of flops the big
blind is likely to play very aggressively, what are good turn
DEUCE-TO-SEVEN TRIPLE DRAW LOWBALL:
ANALYZING A TURN SNOW
By Kevin Haney
Snowing is the act of betting or raising and staying pat
with a busted hand with one or more draws to go in an
attempt to get your opponent to fold before showdown.
In Deuce to Seven Triple Lowball (27TD), as is the case
in other draw games, the decision to turn your hand into
a bluff eliminates the possibility of winning by drawing to
the best hand. However, if we would otherwise fold, then
there is no opportunity cost to snowing.
In this issue, we are going to examine a somewhat com-
mon situation on the turn where we were behind in the
draws and fail to improve, however, instead of making a
conventional fold; we opt to make a move at the pot.
Sample Hand Details
Villain opens from the cutoff, Hero defends the big
blind with 2-3-8-K-Q, and both players draw two. On the
fi rst draw, we pull a jack as well as another three and check-
call a flop bet. On the next draw, we again take two while
our opponent improved and only takes one. Unfortunately,
we fail to improve once again, collecting an ace and yet
another three. We check the turn and face what is almost
always an automatic turn bet from an opponent ahead in
the draw.
Calling and drawing two on the last draw from out
of position in this relatively small pot is not really a good
option. We are only getting 4.25:1 on our call and while our
“hot/cold” equity is probably close to what is required, we
have reverse implied odds on the river.
However, having seen three of the treys has significant
removal effects and our opponent originally opened from
late position, making this an above average situation to
38 CARDPLAYER.COM
cards to develop a leading range, how to properly bluff catch
the river, what are the best hands to bluff with in different
runouts, and much more.
Poker theory is fascinating, but admittedly overwhelm-
ing. Entire books could be written on single topics, which
is why focusing on the right things and understanding the
game mechanics is key. GTO study tools are here to stay.
e chess computer Deep Blue defeated world champion
Garry Kasparov in 1996, and now everyone looks to these
chess engines to help unlock more secrets about the game.
Poker will be no different. ese study tools will reshape the
poker world and will be part of the game for the foreseeable
future. ♠
make a move at the pot. e plan is to check-raise the turn
and stand pat. If we don’t get re-raised on the turn and our
opponent is still drawing, we will bet the river.
If we assume calling the turn and drawing is off the
table, we only need to see if the expectation of turning our
hand into a bluff is greater than zero (folding).
Assumptions
As outlined above, our plan of attack is to only continue
with the bluff when our opponent just calls the turn check-
raise and draws. We will fold if we get three-bet on the turn
and will also refrain from betting the river when villain just
calls the check-raise and pats. Of course, we don’t always
have to play in this manner, but that is generally how we
should proceed and are the assumptions that will be used
in the calculations below.
When Villain pats in position he’s typically showdown
bound as he didn’t call the check-raise in the hopes that you
were making a move at the pot with a drawing hand. When
our opponent is out of position, it’s a different dynamic as
sometimes he will have a weak holding that is only calling
the turn raise to see if you are pat. And if you are pat, he
may find a fold on the river with the bottom of his range.
When the play fails, we will either lose two or three
bets depending on when our opponent makes his hand. If
the bluff succeeds in getting through, we will win a total
of 5.25 big bets, the 4.25 big bets in the middle after our
opponent bets the turn, plus the extra one he had to put in
to call the check-raise.
We will fi rst assume our opponent will pat after the sec-
ond draw with any nine or better low. Since many players
VOLUME 35 / ISSUE 2
 Poker Strategy
will break a hand like 9-7-4-3-2 and other holdings with a Using those probabilities, we can then estimate the
smooth draw underneath, this assumption makes our cal- approximate big bets won or lost from incorporating the
culations slightly more conservative. play:
Estimating the Expected Value of Snowing (-2)*(31%) + (-3)*(22%) + (5.25)*(47%) = 1.18 big bets
Suppose our opponent is holding 2-4-5-7 heading into Under the current set of assumptions this is a highly
the second draw, thus one of the cards he needs is a three profitable, albeit high-variance play with an overall success
which we are effectively blocking. On the second draw, our rate of around 47%.
opponent can hit 12 different cards to make a nine or better On the river, if our opponent calls with any ten or better
low and with 39 unseen cards left, the probability of him instead of a nine, the success rate is lowered to 40% but still
making it is around 31%. solidly in the black:
Regardless of if our opponent makes a seven and three- (-2)*(31%) + (-3)*(29%) + (5.25)*(40%) = .61 big bets
bets us, or an eight or nine that he may just call and pat, And if our opponent calls with a jack or better on the
we will lose two big bets when he makes his hand on the end, our bluff will get through only 33% of the time but we
second draw. We will lose three bets if he ultimately gets will still eke out a tiny profit:
there on the last draw and will win 5.25 big bets when he (-2)*(31%) + (-3)*(36%) + (5.25)*(33%) = .033 big bets
misses both draws. e probabilities associated with these What do the numbers look like if Villain breaks 9-7-
events are as follows: 5-4-2 after the turn check-raise? is would benefit us, as
Hero Loses 2 bets: it’s more likely our bluff will get through. e approximate
chance the play works along with the estimated expected
Villain makes 9 + on 2nd draw 31% values contingent on what Villain bluff catches with on the
Hero Loses 3 bets river are as follows:
Villain misses 9+ on 2nd draw 69% Success % EV (Big Bets)
Villain hits 9+ on 3rd draw 32% Nine + 54% 1.69
22% Ten + 46% 1.00
Hero Wins 5.25 bets Jack + 38% 0.31
Villain misses 9+ on 2nd draw 69% Even though it’s better for us if villain breaks a hand
Villain misses 9+ on 3rd draw 68% like 9-7-5-4-2, it is the correct play from your opponent’s
standpoint against the entirety of our check-raising range
47% that will also contain many real hands. As a first pass, it was

TOURNAMENT HAND MATCHUP 2021 World Poker Tour Rock’N’Roll Poker Open
Analysis
COMMENTARY:
Just less than an hour after he folded pocket aces
to a creative bluff by Clayton Maguire, Jacob Ferro
turned the tables and became the one running the
$3,500 No-Limit Hold’em Main Event multi-street ruse that ended with all of his chips in
on the river with no pair. Ferro opened as the first
to act with his A-5 off suit. Only Selahaddin Bedir
Jacob Ferro Selahaddin Bedir called. e flop gave Ferro a gutshot draw at the
6,500,000 Chips 22,000,000 Chips wheel, while bringing just one overcard to Bedir’s
pocket eights. Ferro tapped the brakes, at least ini-
© WPT/Joe Giron

A 5 8 8 tially, checking with his ace high and draw. Bedir

checked behind, likely hoping to control the size of
% the pot and just make it to showdown with his medi-
% A 5 8 8 um pocket pair. When the turn brought a second
% queen, Bedir was emboldened to go for a bit of value
when checked to. Ferro unleashed a check-raise, with
a smaller sizing of less than three times Bedir’s initial
PREFLOP bet. Bedir made the call and the river brought the
J♥. Ferro had arrived at the river with just ace high
With four players remaining and blinds of 125,000-250,000 and a big for showdown value, with 3,100,000 remaining in
blind ante of 250,000, Jacob Ferro raised to 600,000 from the cutoff. his stack and 7,425,000 in the pot. Bedir’s line so far
Selahaddin Bedir called from the button. in the hand probably read, to Ferro, as what it was: a
somewhat cautious approach with a medium strength
hand. Ferro pulled the trigger and moved all-in, like-
ly believing that he had to make his opponent fold
a better hand in order to keep his hopes alive in this
Q 4 2 Q J
TURN
FLOP

RIVER

event. Bedir was getting laid a good price on the call,

Q 4
Ferro checked, and Bedir
checked behind.
2 Q
Ferro checked, and Bedir
bet 1,000,000. Ferro
check-raised to 2,800,000.
but likely believed that he only had a bluff catcher
with his pocket eights. After some consideration, he
J folded to preserve his stack of over 18 million. Bedir
went on to finish fourth for $282,380. is was his
Ferro moved all-in fourth six-figure score of the year, having had an
for 3,100,000, and impressive showing at the Super High Roller Bowl
Bedir folded. Europe that included three final-table finishes and a
title won in a $50,000 buy-in event.

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 Poker Strategy
just helpful to show the numbers assuming our opponent
gets sticky with a nine, which he may do with a rough hand
such as 9-8-7-4-2.
On your good days, your check-raise will make your
opponent break something like 9-7-5-4-2 or 9-5-4-3-2 or
possibly get him to immediately fold his rough draws. Since
Villain opened from late position, he will more frequently
have a weak one card draw to a nine (e.g. 2-7-8-9) and may
just decide to muck on the turn.
On your bad days, your opponent will already be hold-
ing the case three and also may decide to three-bet the turn
with a strong draw such as 2-3-5-7, which in this case, will
instantly win him the pot.
All things considered, the player on the receiving end of
a turn check-raise probably needs to bluff catch with a jack
low or better on the end to deny his opponent the ability to
print money with his snows.
Of course, potentially opening yourself up to being
exploited and actually getting exploited are two entirely
different things. Tight players with no creativity in them
always have at least an eight or better when check-raising
the turn and leading the river, and against them folding
a nine or worse low on the river would be exploiting their
straightforward play.
Finding A Good Spot To Call Down
By Jonathan Little
9 9
9 9
Little Villain
60,000 60,000
K 6 2 8 4 is trying to push you around, you cannot be afraid to
K 6 2 8 4 that could easily be crushed and has only a small chance
Blinds – 50-100
In a recent $10,000 buy-in World Series of Poker event,
I arrived on time to fi nd just four other players at my table.
Everyone was playing what seemed to be a somewhat
tight, aggressive strategy, except for one player who was
clearly trying to win every pot he entered, which hap-
pened to be most of them. Prior to the following hand, we
only played a few pots together, with him winning a few
small ones from me.
At 50-100 blinds, I raised to 300 out of my 60,000
stack with 9♦ 9♥ from the cutoff. My loose, aggressive
opponent called from the small blind.
e flop came K♥ 6♠ 2♦, and my opponent led into
me for 500.
I was unsure what to make out of his bet. While he
likely has only one specific type of hand, such as a pre-
40 CARDPLAYER.COM
When deciding whether or not to snow, having seen
many pairing cards is critical both in terms of increasing
the likelihood our opponent will fail to complete his hand
and also ensuring that we don’t overuse the play. Against
a tricky aggressive opponent in an online game, numerous
things can go wrong so if/when we make a move it should
only be with significant blockers, meanwhile the bar can be
set a little lower against a tight player in a live game.
As in many poker situations, we must also choose our
targets carefully. We must never forget the old saying that
poker is not really a game of cards played with people; it is
mostly a game of people played with cards. ♠
mium hand like a set, a decently strong hand like a six, or
a draw like 4-3, it is impossible to know what he is actu-
ally doing. I decided to roughly assign him a loose range
containing any pair on the board, any gutshot straight
draw, and the occasional stone bluff. Notice that this
assumes he does not have two pair or better often at all.
I called because my hand is in fi ne shape against that
range. When you are somewhat sure that your opponent
call and see what develops, even when you have a hand
to improve.
e turn was the 8♠. My opponent bet 1,500 into the
1,700 pot.
At this point, I was becoming more sure that he
was trying to make me fold what he perceived to be a
marginal made hand. While I didn’t have much to base
my read on besides his previous play, I thought that he
would make a smaller bet, perhaps 1,100 or so, if he
wanted me to call.
I decided to trust my read and call his turn bet.
Before calling, I decided that I was not especially look-
ing to fold if he bet on most rivers. If you pay close atten-
tion to your opponent, you will occasionally find spots
where you are as confident as reasonably possible that
he is bluffi ng. I felt like this was one of those situations.
e river was the 4♣. My opponent bet 3,500 into
the 4,700 pot.
While his river bet was not quite as large in relation
to the size of the pot as his turn bet, I decided to stick
with my read that he was bluffi ng a large amount of
VOLUME 35 / ISSUE 2
 Poker Strategy
the time. If he made an even larger bet, I would have
been even more inclined to call. If he made a small bet,
perhaps 2,000 or so, I would have been much more con-
cerned that he was trying to get me to call with most of
my range, which would likely mean that he was betting
for value.
I called fairly quickly and was pleasantly surprised to
see my opponent’s cards quickly hit the muck, awarding
me a sizable pot early in the tournament.
It is important to realize that early in a tournament,
there isn’t much of a difference between a 540-big blind
stack and a 660-big blind stack. Whether I won or lost
this hand, my opponent would get the message that I am
not someone he can blindly push around. Ideally, this
will result in him playing a somewhat straightforward
strategy against me for the rest of the day.
Sure enough, in this event, my opponent stayed
completely in line against me for the remainder of the
day, allowing me to get away with whatever I wanted.
Especially when the chips you risk are not worth too
much, do not be afraid to get a bit out of line if you think
the result will be that your opponents allow you make
easier decisions later in the day once the blinds go up. ♠
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TOURNAMENT HAND MATCHUP

2021 World Poker Tour Rock’N’Roll Poker Open
Analysis
COMMENTARY:
e final table of this event saw a number of
players run multi-street bluff s with hundreds of
thousands on the line. In this hand, two of the
$3,500 No-Limit Hold’em Main Event final four players both got out of line in an excit-
ing game of ‘chicken’ that resulted in a sizable
Gediminas Uselis Selahaddin Bedir pot. Gediminas Uselis opened A-4 off suit and
8,900,000 Chips 10,700,000 Chips chip leader Jacob Ferro called with suited con-
nectors. Selahaddin Bedir defended his big blind
A 4 for the min-raise with 9-2 suited. Uselis flopped
© WPT/Joe Giron

9 2
the best hand with bottom pair, but checked
% behind after his two opponents knuckled to him.
% e turn paired the middle card from the flop
%
A 4 9 2 and gave Bedir a flush draw, which he bet when
Ferro checked to him. Uselis called with his fives
and fours. Ferro sprang to life, check-raising
PREFLOP small to 2.1 million. Bedir bowed out and Uselis
decided to hang on. e 9♦ on the end gave
Jacob Ferro With four players remaining and blinds Ferro nines and fives for the best hand, but he
24,150,000 Chips of 150,000-300,000 and a big blind ante was left in an awkward position given his action
on earlier streets. He elected to make a blocker
9 8
of 300,000, Gediminas Uselis raised bet of 1.5 million into the pot of over 7 million.
to 600,000 from the button. Jacob Uselis might have read the sizing of that river
% Ferro called from the small blind, and bet for what it was, as he responded by raising
% 9 8 Selahaddin Bedir called from the big blind. to 6 million, leaving just 200,000 behind. “How
% many times can I get bluff ed?” asked Ferro, who
had likely been told about a big bluff earlier
that got him to lay down pocket aces. He went
10 5 4 5 Ferro checked, and 9 Ferro bet into the tank for a few minutes, but eventually
TURN
FLOP

RIVER

Bedir bet 850,000.
Uselis called, and
Ferro check-raised
10 5 4 5 to 2,100,000.
Bedir folded, and
Everyone checked. Uselis called.
1,500,000. released his hand to send the key pot over to
Uselis raised to Uselis. e two players in this hand ultimately
6,000,000, and made it down to heads-up play, with Uselis
9 Ferro folded.
emerging victorious with the title and the top
prize of $778,490. Ferro took home a career-best
$573,605 for his second-place showing.

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 ANALYSIS & Commentary
CONTRACTS AND POKER: A CHIP AND A CHAIR
By Scott J. Burnham
A tournament player shoves his chips forward. e
dealer tosses out a disc that says “All In.” Another player,
who has him covered, says “I call” and shoves out his stack.
e all-in player loses the hand, but as he gets up to
leave, he reveals a chip that was hidden by the player’s arm
that rested on the felt.
Does the winner of the hand get that chip, or can the
player continue in the tournament with the single chip?
is situation occurred in a tournament at Aria that I
recently played in. It recalls the famous “chip and a chair”
incident at the 1982 World Series of Poker main event. Jack
“Treetop” Straus was the player with the remaining chip,
and after he lost the hand, he was allowed to continue in the
tournament. Miraculously, he emerged as the winner, giv-
ing hope to all of us who fi nd ourselves on the short stack.
But should he have been allowed to continue in the
tournament? e Tournament Director ruled that Straus
had merely pushed his chips forward, but had not declared
himself to be all-in. When the other player called, he called
the bet that was pushed out. erefore, the remaining chip
was not in play.
e WSOP subsequently enacted a rule to deal with
the situation, though it is not particularly helpful. e to say that “the Event Director may award the chip to the
Tournament Directors Association has similar rules (see
TDA Rules 49 and 62). WSOP Rule 105 states:
105. All-In with Chips Found Behind Later: If A bets
all-in and a hidden chip is found behind after a Participant
has called, the Event Tournament Director will determine
if the chip behind is part of accepted action or not. If not
part of the action, A will not be paid off for the chip(s) if
he wins. If A loses he is not saved by the chip(s) and the
Event Tournament Director may award the chip(s) to the
winning caller.
ere are a number of problems with this rule. First
off, it only addresses the situation where the player declares
himself to be “all-in,” so apparently it does not address the
situation where the player pushes forward his chips with-
out saying “all-in.” We will address that situation shortly.
Secondly, the TD must determine whether the chip is part
of “accepted action.” is is a concept discussed in WSOP
Rule 104:
104. Accepted Action: Poker is a game of alert, continu-
ous observation. It is the caller’s responsibility to determine
the correct amount of an opponent’s bet before calling,
regardless of what is stated by the dealer or Participants. If
a caller requests a count but receives incorrect information
from the dealer or Participants, then places that amount
in the pot, the caller is assumed to accept the full correct
action & is subject to the correct wager or all-in amount.
Let’s look more closely at that rule. Assume a player
announces “all-in” and another player requests a count. e
42 CARDPLAYER.COM
dealer states that the bet is 200,000, overlooking the fact
that there is a hidden 5,000 chip, which would make the
actual amount of the bet 205,000.
e other player says, “call” and wins the hand. Does he
win the hidden chip? I think he does, because Rule 104 says
that the caller is subject to the correct all-in amount regard-
less of the incorrect information he was given.
But apparently the TD is free to decide otherwise, since
the TD may determine that the 5,000 chip was not part
of accepted action. If the all-in player loses the hand, then
the rule says “he is not saved by the chip” but then goes on
winning caller,” with the word may indicating the TD can
exercise discretion in this case.
It seems to me if the caller wins and has an all-in player
covered, then he should win the chip. erefore, the TD
should have no discretion, and the rule should say “the
Event Director must award the chip to the winning caller.”
Now let’s look at the situation where the player shoves
all his visible chips forward, but does not announce “all-in.”
First of all, does it matter that the dealer announces “all-in”
or throws in the “All In” disk?
at should not matter. As stated in Rule 104: “It is the
caller’s responsibility to determine the correct amount of an
opponent’s bet before calling, regardless of what is stated by
the dealer or Participants.”
If it was not an all-in bet, the fact that the dealer
announced it erroneously would not change the amount
of the bet. In that situation, the caller should not win the
hidden chip, so the ruling in the Straus case was correct.
Perhaps a cautious player, when faced with this situation,
should himself say “all-in” rather than call so that he would
have any hidden chips covered.
Incidentally, the “chip and a chair” hand provides the
coda to one of the best books written about poker, e
Biggest Game in Town, by A. Alvarez. If you would like a
well-written account of the early days of the World Series of
Poker and the world of professional poker back in the day, it
doesn’t get any better than this. ♠
VOLUME 35 / ISSUE 2

TOURNAMENTS: STARTING TIMES, LENGTH OF
PLAYING DAY, AND LATE ENTRIES
By Steve Zolotow
I generally approve of the standard
starting times in poker tournaments.
Typically, tournaments with early
starts begin at some time between 11
am and 1 pm. ose with late starts
begin between 3 pm and 6 pm. Some
casinos also offer smaller events that
start each evening.
Senior and super-senior events
always start early. I’m not sure why
this is, but I hate it. Some misguid-
ed Tournament Director must have
decided that old people get up early.
Among my friends, most non-golfing
seniors get up late and stay up late. It is
only younger adults with jobs and kids
who are forced to get up early.
Almost all tournaments schedule
very long days. A typical WSOP day
may last 13 hours (including breaks
and bagging chips at the end of the
session.) is makes endurance a very
important skill.
Many players would love a play-
ing day that lasted only eight or
nine hours, like any other job, and
is already longer most other games or
sports. I overheard someone complain-
ing that playing poker tournaments
was like working in a factory during
the early days of the industrial revolu-
tion. Someone else responded that at
least we now have bathroom breaks
and no child laborers.
For one-day tournaments, the solu-
tion is to enter late. Even two-day
tournaments can be entered late on
day 1, and then only a rare few survive
to end of day 2. For longer events,
the middle days can be incredibly
long, tough grinds. I would prefer
shorter playing days. Players could be
eliminated at the same rate per day
by increasing antes and blinds a little
more quickly.
Late Entries
During the WSOP Mike Matusow
tweeted that late entries shouldn’t be
allowed, stating that it gives a large
advantage to players who register at
the last possible moment when a lot of
the field has already been eliminated.
He even went so far as to say that late
registration has “destroyed the integ-
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ANALYSIS & Commentary
rity of tournament poker.” Plenty of • Players who also play cash
other top players responded to Mike games may fi nd their ROI or dol-
that it was actually a disadvantage to lars per hour earnings are higher if
register late, and good overall for the they play a few hours of cash instead
other players in the field. of entering the tournament at the
It is hard to imagine why Mike, start. For example, a player entering
who thinks late entries are advanta- at the beginning of a $1,000 buy-in
geous, wouldn’t want to enter late. tournament may average a return
Just self-destructive, I guess. I think of $1,500 ($500 profit.) If he enters
that anything that gives players more late, his average return may only be
options and will attract more players $1,300. However, if he can average
is desirable. $100 per hour in a cash game, his
Advantages of Entering Early total profit is $700. (And if the cash
• You get to play the maximum game is really good, there is always
number of hours against the weakest an option to skip the tournament.)
players. ese players are often broke • I’m not sure who they are, but
and eliminated by the time entries there are some poker players who
close, and late entrants miss the oppor- also have a life. Late entries give
tunity to play against them. them an opportunity to spend time
• You become familiar with every- with their friends and families (and
one at your table (which often won’t maybe even have a relaxed meal or
break for hours) and will be capable of see a movie.) ♠
making more informed decisions later,
when stakes are higher.
• You might accumulate a large
stack early and be able to intimidate
players looking to survive.
• Some tournaments offer reduced
entry fees for early registrants, and you
may be able to avoid lines by purchas-
ing your entry the night before.
Advantages of Entering Late
• If you survive to late in the day,
you will be more energetic and focused
than players who have played four
more hours than you have. I prefer to
enter late, and often feel that I am still
fresh when other players are starting
to fade.
CARDPLAYER.COM 43