Finance Research Letters xxx (xxxx) xxxx

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Finance Research Letters

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/frl

Trade openness and economic growth quality of China: Empirical

analysis using ARDL model
Qunxi Konga, Dan Penga, Yehui Nia, Xinyue Jianga, Ziqi Wangb,1,
⁎

a
School of Industrial Development, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing, China
b
School of Business, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: This paper studies the influential relationship between Chinese opening up and economic growth
Trade openness quality in China under exchange rate fluctuation from 1994 to 2018. There is a long-term stable
Exchange rate fluctuation co-integration relationship between opening-up and the quality of economic growth. Trade
Economic growth quality openness can significantly promote the quality of economic growth in both the short and long
Regional heterogeneity
term. When the short-term fluctuation deviated from the long-term equilibrium, the quality of
Non-linear relationship
economic growth can remain stable through automatic adjustment. The positive impact of trade
openness on quality of economic growth had a significant regional heterogeneity and non-linear
threshold characteristics.

1. Introduction and literature review

It is a relatively consistent view, regarding the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in the circle of foreign
economic theory, that trade openness can facilitate the promotion of economic growth quality. Neoclassical growth theory holds that
trade openness can promote capital formation and the enhancement of resource allocation efficiency, thus facilitating the im-
provement of economic growth quality (Helpman, 1985; Rodrik, 1988). New growth theory posits that trade openness mainly
elevates economic growth quality through accelerating technical progress and boosting factor productivity (Romer, 1986;
Robert, 1988). In recent years, scholars have been studying the relationship between trade openness and economic growth.
Idris (2016) has argued that trade openness was one of the main drivers of economic growth. Keho (2017) has suggested that trade
openness has a positive influence on economic growth in both the short and long term, and that there is a positive and powerful
complementary relationship between trade openness and capital formation in the promotion of economic growth.
Huchet‐Bourdon (2018) has stated that, in the long run, trade openness is conducive to economic growth.

Corresponding author.
⁎

E-mail address: 1012660908@qq.com (Z. Wang).

1
We would like to thank editors and anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. We acknowledge financial support from the
National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71303105): The Study of the Regional Innovation System Centered on Knowledge-intensive
Service Enterprises——based on the Perspective of Spatial Agglomeration, and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71773047): The
Research of Human Capital Heterogeneity, Innovation and Producer Service Productivity: Influence and Approach, and National Social Science
Foundation (No. 19FJYB039): Research on the Relationship Between Outward Foreign Direct Investment and China’s Economic Growth in High
Quality Development Stage, and Jiangsu soft science program project (No. BR2018043): New Connotation of Science and Technology Finance:
Research on the Path, Mode and Mechanism of Financial Support for the High Quality Development and Upgrading of Science and Technology
Innovation and Entrepreneurship and the Construction of Modern Economic System of Service, and Jiangsu Practical Innovation Project (No.
SJKY19_1235): The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Quality of China’s Economic Growth: Theoretical Mechanism and Realization Path.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101488
Received 5 November 2019; Received in revised form 17 February 2020; Accepted 5 March 2020
1544-6123/ © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Qunxi Kong, et al., Finance Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101488
Q. Kong, et al. Finance Research Letters xxx (xxxx) xxxx

Meanwhile, existing studies suggest that developing countries can better utilize the existing knowledge storage of developed
countries through trade. For example, Abid (2019) and Mensi et al. (2019) have found that an increase in trade openness can
accelerate technical progress of advantaged industries, thus promoting the improvement of economic quality. Additionally, trade
openness significantly influences capital deepening and promotes economic growth quality by changing the structure of the labor
force. Wang et al. (2019) have contended that trade openness improves capacity utilization and output levels significantly by ex-
panding the market size, as well as significantly influencing capital deepening and driving economic growth by changing the
structure of the labor force. According to Zhang et al.(2019a), opening up to the outside world has had a significant positive impact
on China’s economic growth, while regional opening up has significantly hindered China’s rapid economic growth. Zhang and
Guo (2019) reported that there were significant non-linear characteristics between trade openness and growth in the Chinese
economy. The degree of trade openness had an asymmetric effect on economic growth. The promoting effect of trade openness on
economic growth decreased with the increase of the degree of openness, but the two were always positively correlated. According to
Wei et al. (2019) and Zhang et al (2019c), after 2008, the influence of trade openness on economic growth showed a downward trend.
The common feature of the above studies on the linear relationship between trade openness and the quality of economic growth is
that all assume that there is a long-term stable relationship between the two. Moreover, these studies did not consider the cyclical
factors of economic operation, and did not describe the mechanisms of the two factors in the short term. Therefore, this paper first
builds an ARDL (Autoregressive-distributed Lag) model based on a unified analytical framework to study the long-term relationship
between trade openness and the quality of economic growth under exchange rate fluctuations. Second, this paper establishes an error
correction model to describe the short-term relationship between the two. Finally, this study uses a threshold model to explore the
non-linear relationship between trade openness and the quality of economic growth.

2. Methodology and data resources

2.1. Econometric methodology

2.1.1. ARDL model

The connection between trade openness, FDI and economic growth quality in China can be analyzed using the analytical fra-
mework set up by Baharom et al (2008) and Zhang et al (2019b). Referring to Emery (1967), Balassa (1978) and Hendry (1987), and
using the degree of openness of trade as an indicator of opening up, the benchmark regression model is set as follows:
ECOt = f (FDIt , TOPt , REERt ) (1)
The explanatory variables in the model include foreign direct investment (FDIt), trade openness (TOPt) and real effective exchange
rate (REERt), and their lag values are expressed with FDIt − i, TOPt − i and REERt − i, respectively. The endogenous variable is
economic growth quality (ECOt), and its lag value is ECOt − i.
In consideration of the time lagging in the promotion of quality of economic growth, this study selected an ARDL model to study
the influence of the degree of trade openness on quality of economic growth. The ARDL model was calculated in two steps:
Step 1: The co-integration test ARDL model, which was used to test whether there was a long-term causal relationship between the
variables. The following model was established:
ln ECOt = 0 +
1 ln ECOt 1 + 2 ln FDIt 1 + 3 ln TOPt 1 + 4 ln REERt 1
a b c
+ i = 1 5, i
ln ECOt i + i = 0 6, i ln FDIt i + i = 0 7, i
ln TOPt i
d
+ i = 0 8, i
ln REERt i + ut (2)
where Δ was the first-order differential operator, ut was the white noise and a, b, c, d were the maximum lag orders as determined by
AIC or BIC. Whether there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between horizontal variables was tested using F-statistic, and the
null hypothesis was that there was no long-term equilibrium relationship.
Step 2: The estimation ARDL model, which was used to analyze the long- and short-term relationships between the variables. The
long-term relationship can be estimated using the ARDL(p1,p2,p3,p4) model:
p1 p2 p3 p4
ln ECOt = 0 + 1 ln ECOt i + 2 ln FDIt i + 3 ln TOPt i + 4 lnREER t i + i
i=1 i=0 i=0 i=0 (3)
While the short-term relationship can be estimated using the ARDL-ECM model. See Eq. (4) for the concrete model:
p1 p2 p3 p4
ln ECOt = 0 + i=1 1
ln ECOt i + i=0 2
ln FDIt i + i=0 3
ln TOPt i + i=0 4
lnREER t i
+ 5 ECMt 1 + µt (4)

2.1.2. Threshold model

The single threshold regression model of this paper was designed according to the panel data threshold model of Hansen (1999):
ln ECOij = 0 + 1 ln FDIij + 2 ln REERij + 3 ln TOPij· I (TOP < )
+ 4 ln TOPij· I (TOP )+ 5 Xit + it (5)

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Table 1
Economic growth quality index system.
Dimensions Sub-index Basic indicators Proxy variables

Economic growth efficiency Factor productivity Capital productivity GDP/Capital stock

Labor productivity
Production organization TFP
efficiency Technical efficiency
Technological changes
Market efficiency Industrialization rate
Economic growth stability Industrial structure The second industry compares
labor productivity
The tertiary industry compares
labor productivity
Urban and rural structure Binary contrast coefficient
Binary Contrast Index
Investment and Investment rate
consumption structure Consumption rate
Financial structure Balance of deposits
Loan balance ratio
Economic stability Economic volatility
Urban and rural income Rural Households Engel's
Coefficient
Urban Household Engel's
Coefficient
Employment fluctuations Urban registered unemployment
rate
Outcome allocation Workers’ share of compensation
Theil index
Economic growth Environmental pollution Wastewater discharge per unit of
sustainability output(t/million)
Unit output solid waste emissions
(t/million)
Resource consumption Gross power consumption per unit
of area(kWh/yuan)
Openness Public Service Total import and export/GDP
OFDI/GDP
Public Service General Public Service Expenses
Public safety spending ratio
Basic quality Railway mileage
Kilometers
Technology and Innovation The proportion of science and
technology expenditure
Three types of patent approvals per
year in each region
GDP/Number of employees
TFP
EC
TC
Non-agricultural employment/total employment
Second industry output ratio/Second industry employment
ratio
Tertiary industry output ratio/Tertiary industry
employment ratio
Ratio of agricultural and non-agricultural labor
productivity
∣Non-agricultural output value minus the proportion of
labor∣
Gross capital formation/GDP
Final consumption expenditure/GDP
Deposit balance/GDP
Loan balance/GDP
∣Change in economic growth rate∣
Rural food expenditure/consumption
Urban food expenditure/consumption
Urban registered unemployment rate
Workers’ compensation/GDP
dis =
2
((pit /pt )× ln(pit /pt /z it / zt ))
i=1
Total industrial wastewater discharge/GDP
Industrial waste production/GDP
Electricity consumption/GDP
Total import and export/GDP
OFDI/GDP
General public service Expenditure/fiscal expenditure
Public safety expenditure/fiscal expenditure
Railway mileage
Kilometers
Science and technology expenditure/fiscal expenditure
Three types of patent approvals per year

Note: Theil index is used to measure the income gap between regions. i represents towns and villages respectively;Ztare the total population at
period t;Ptare the total income at period t.

where i stood for the observed individual, t for the time, trade openness (TOP) for the threshold variable, ϕfor the threshold value and
Xit for the set of independent variables. The control variables selected in this paper were industrial structure, resource endowment,
innovation level, human capital level and government financial expenditure (Yuan Qian and Wu Lihua, 2019; Zhang et al., 2020a;
James and Aadland, 2011).

2.2. Variable description and data sources

Provincial-level China panel data during the period of 1994–2018 have been adopted as research samples for this study. Due to
the lack of some data from Tibet, 30 provinces (cities, regions) were ultimately chosen as the section samples. The variable data was
taken from China Statistical Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook of Science and Technology, Statistical Bulletin of Chinese Foreign Direct
Investment, statistical yearbooks of each province and city, and the official database of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Relevant variables are defined as below:

2.2.1. Economic growth quality(ECO)

Referring to Kong Qunxi et al. (2019). high-quality economic growth should be stable and continuous growth under efficient
growth mode; accordingly, multiple basic indexes are overall considered to construct the indexes of economic growth quality. The
specific evaluation system construction is shown in Table 1. Thirty-one basic indexes have been chosen, and dimensionless treatment

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was conducted for each proxy variable. Then, dimensionality reduction treatment is carried out for each basic index through principal
component analysis. Finally, the comprehensive indexes of economic growth quality have been gained.

2.2.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI)

The investment effect of FDI often has time lag, and thus it is more scientific to use FDI stock data rather than FDI flow data.
Considering that no computation of depreciation will overestimate the value of FDI asset, calculation is required, and the formula is:
FDIt = It / Pt + (1 t ) FDIt 1 (6)
wherein, FDItis actual FDI stock for t years; FDIt − 1is actual FDI stock for t-1 years. Pt is price index of investment in fixed assets. It is
nominal FDI for t years converted with RMB. δt is depreciation rate of FDI asset for t years. This paper refers to the method of Hou
et al., 2005 and assumes that the depreciation rate of FDI asset is 11%.

2.2.3. Trade openness (TOP)

Under the precondition of considering basic conditions of China and data availability, trade interdependency (TI) has been
selected as the index to measure trade openness, and the computational formula is:
(IMPORTi + EXPORTi )
TIi =
GDPi (7)
wherein, IMPORTi and EXPORTi refer to the import and export amounts of a country, and GDPi is the gross domestic product of a
country.

2.2.4. Real exchange rate fluctuation (REER)

This paper calculated the exchange rate fluctuation using coefficient of variation and made a regression analysis on the variables.
To be specific, the coefficient of variation of the monthly data of real exchange rate in the same year was used for measuring. The
standard deviation was divided by the monthly average, to eliminate the influence of different dimensions of the real exchange rate
values of two sides. The following formula was established:
REERj, t = Std. Dev (REERj, m)/Mean (REERj, m ) (8)

3. The long-term and short-term equilibrium between opening-up and quality of economic growth

3.1. Preliminary investigation

In order to further study the correlation between opening up and the quality of economic growth, this paper chose two dimensions
of trade openness and foreign direct investment for specific research. Figs. 1 and 2 illustrate that both degree of trade openness and

Fig 1. TOP and ECO.

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Fig 2. FDI and ECO.

Table 2
Co-integration test results.
Null hypothesis Trace statistic 5% critical value 1% critical value

0 co-integration vector 55.8260 47.85613 ⁎⁎

54.6815⁎⁎⁎
1 co-integration vector 27.0124 29.79707 35.45817
2 co-integration vectors 9.8520 15.49471 19.93711
3 co-integration vectors 0.1220 3.841466 6.634897
Null hypothesis Maximum eigenvalue statistic 5% critical value 1% critical value
0 co-integration vector 48.8596 27.58434⁎⁎ 32.71527⁎⁎⁎
1 co-integration vector 22.9719 21.13162 25.86121
2 co-integration vectors 6.2669 14.2646 18.52001
3 co-integration vectors 0.0316 3.841466 6.634897

Note: collated by the author.

Table 3
The estimation results of the long-term and short-term model of ARDL.
Models Variables Coefficient Std. error T-test P-value

Long term model 1nTOP 0.7187 ⁎⁎

0.3648 3.26 0.0450
1nREER 0.3048⁎⁎⁎ 0.3002 4.68 0.0269
C 0.6741⁎⁎⁎ 0.3280 2.97 0.0078
Short term model Δ1n TOP 0.8891⁎⁎ 0.2806 3.63 0.0114
Δ1n REER 0.4942⁎⁎⁎ 1.4528 3.47 0.0026
Δ1n FDI −0.3377⁎⁎⁎ 0.5530 −4.77 0.0023
ecm( − 1) −0.3265⁎⁎⁎ 0.0432 −3.76 0.0263

Note: (1) The subscript number in the variable represents the lag period, t-1 stands for lag phase 1 and t-2 stands for lag phase two. (2) ***,**, and *
indicate the level of significance of 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively. (3) R̄ 2 = 0.9987 , DW=2.0543.

outward direct investment were positively correlated to quality of economic growth, but, in the context of exchange rate fluctuation,
if quality of economic growth, degree of trade openness, FDI and real exchange rate were incorporated into the same analytical
framework, the influence relationship between opening-up and quality of economic growth must be further tested.

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Table 4
Results of sub-regional regression.
Variables Nation East Mid West
2SLS GMM 2SLS GMM 2SLS GMM 2SLS GMM

1nECOt − 1 0.8915⁎⁎⁎ (6.55) 0.8648⁎⁎⁎(4.45) 0.8896⁎⁎⁎ (5.14) 0.7862⁎⁎⁎ (5.11) 0.5035⁎⁎⁎ (3.57) 0.6133⁎⁎ (3.45) 0.7886⁎⁎ (2.04) 0.7230⁎⁎ (2.88)
1nFDI −0.0026 (−0.52) 0.0056 (0.45) −0.0035⁎⁎ (−2.42) 0.0085 (1.34) 0.0019 (1.93) 0.0050 (0.68) 0.0024⁎⁎⁎ (2.87) 0.0031⁎⁎⁎ (2.76)
1nFDIt − 1 −0.0004 (−0.36) 0.0014 (0.64) 0.0005 (1.52) 0.0077 (0.63) 0.0007 (0.44) 0.0059 (0.87) −0.0001 (−0.69) −0.0004 (−0.32)
1nREER 1.6878⁎⁎⁎ (2.83) 1.9300⁎⁎⁎ (2.11) 4.5166⁎⁎⁎ (4.14) 5.3731⁎⁎⁎ (1.55) 2.3575 (1.94) 3.1709 (1.29) 0.8532⁎⁎⁎ (2.60) 0.9571⁎⁎⁎ (2.15)
1nREERt − 1 1.1450⁎⁎⁎ (2.74) 2.2930⁎⁎⁎ (1.57) 5.3594⁎⁎⁎ (2.42) 4.0900⁎⁎⁎ (4.46) 3.0819⁎⁎⁎ (2.19) 2.2930 (1.75) 1.4103 (0.24) 2.1587 (2.45)

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1nTOP 0.4736⁎⁎⁎ (2.39) 0.5511⁎⁎⁎ (2.51) 0.6710⁎⁎⁎ (4.14) 0.8981⁎⁎⁎ (2.86) −3.7469⁎⁎ (−1.24) −2.5964 (−1.03) 0.4736 (0.87) 0.5059 (0.70)
1nFDIt − 1 0.8807 (0.78) 0.6826 (0.12) −1.4736 (−0.56) −0.8384 (−0.88) 0.4103 (0.27) 0.5059 (0.79) 0.5989 (0.13) 0.6826 (0.62)
C 0.3335 (0.56) 0.4875 (0.36) 0.8782 (0.26) 0.5938 (0.52) 0.7821 (2.87) 0.9220 (1.48) 0.3992 (0.98) 0.2695 (0.75)
Wald test 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
AR(1) 0.4962 0.5054 0.6050 0.6926 0.7887 0.5051 0.8237 0.7171
AR(2) 0.6630 0.7037 0.0211 0.4848 0.7969 0.2134 0.9334 0.6099
N 403 403 170 170 112 112 121 121

Note: (1) The subscript number in the variable represents the lag period, t-1 stands for lag phase 1 and t-2 stands for lag phase two. (2) ***,**, and * indicate the level of significance of 1%, 5%, and 10%,
respectively. (3) AR (1) and AR (2) are Arellano and Bond (1991) tests for autocorrelation in differences.
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Table 5
Results of threshold effects regression.
Variables Nation East Mid West

1n FDI −10.4484⁎⁎⁎ (−10.53) −11.6772⁎⁎⁎ (−5.68) −13.6158⁎⁎ (−10.23) −7.3842⁎⁎⁎ (−6.27)

1n REER 0.8540⁎⁎⁎ (2.70) 0.9287⁎⁎⁎ (4.24) 0.7405 (1.31) 0.8868⁎⁎⁎ (2.82)
1n TOP _1 0.7492⁎⁎⁎ (2.79) 0.3693⁎⁎ (2.48) −1.5513 (−2.55) 2.1405⁎⁎ (2.48)
1n TOP _2 −2.5111⁎⁎⁎ (−4.21) −2.1405⁎⁎⁎ (−3.02) −0.8654 (-0.44) −0.5551 (−1.72)
1n TOP _3 0.6892⁎⁎⁎ (2.62) 0.3711⁎⁎ (1.64) −0.7597 (−2.80) 1.0984⁎⁎⁎ (2.62)
C 2.9831⁎⁎⁎ (17.30) 5.8058⁎⁎⁎ (10.60) 2.1559⁎⁎⁎ (18.22) 1.7027⁎⁎⁎(7.66)
Control variables YES YES YES YES
R2 0.4534 0.7545 0.8532 0.6061
Prob > F 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
N 403 170 112 121

***,**
Note: , and * indicate the level of significance of 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively.

Table 6
Sub-sample results with high, medium and low trade openness.
Variables Low trade openness Medium trade openness High trade openness
2SLS GMM 2SLS GMM 2SLS GMM

LnFDI −11.7461⁎⁎⁎ −12.6642⁎⁎⁎ −12.1094⁎⁎⁎ −9.6098⁎⁎⁎ −12.5708⁎⁎⁎ −13.2979⁎⁎⁎

(−10.80) (-8.10) (−5.99) (−7.41) (−11.44) (−12.98)
LnREER 0.9222⁎⁎⁎ (2.21) 0.6849⁎⁎⁎ (2.73) 0.8588⁎⁎⁎ (3.50) 0.8922⁎⁎⁎ (2.53) 0.6425⁎⁎⁎ (2.93) 0.6749⁎⁎⁎ (2.62)
c 2.2403⁎⁎⁎ (17.41) 2.5703⁎⁎⁎ (11.56) 5.3600⁎⁎⁎ (15.39) 6.9419⁎⁎⁎ (14.32) 2.7528⁎⁎⁎ (16.45) 1.4141⁎⁎⁎ (10.15)
Control variables YES YES YES YES YES YES
R̄2 0.6160 0.5569 0.7430 0.8577 0.8144 0.9145
Prob > F 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
N 372 372 132 132 96 96

***,**
Note: , and * indicate the level of significance of 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively.

3.2. Results of unit root test and co-integration test

Firstly, an NP unit root test was carried out on the stationarity of multiple variable sequences. The results showed that the
horizontal series of natural logarithmic sequences of the variables involved in this paper were all non-stationary series, but became
stationary series after first-order difference. Thus, I (1) was stationary and it was possible to estimate the ARDL model.
Secondly, this study performed a co-integration test on the relationship between four variables: ln ECOt, ln FDIt, ln TOPt and
ln REERt using the Johansen test. The test results (Table 2) indicated that at the significant levels of 5% and 1%, there was a unique
co-integration relationship among ln ECOt, ln FDIt, ln TOPt and ln REERt.

3.3. Estimation results of short-term and long-term ARDL model

Before estimating the long-term coefficient, it was necessary to determine the lag order of the model. According to the actual
statistics of sample data, the optimal lag order of each variable in the model was identified using Schwarz-Bayes Criterion (SBC).
Considering the length of sample data, in this paper, the maximum lag order of each variable was limited to 2, and finally ARDL
(1,2,2,2) was identified to be the most appropriate. The estimation results are shown in Table 3.
As Table 3 illustrates, the degree of trade openness grew by 1% and the quality of economic growth grew by about 70–80%,
indicating which meant that the degree of trade openness can promote the quality of economic growth in both long and short terms.
Moreover, the adjustment coefficient of the error correction terms was −0.3265, indicating that when the short-term fluctuation
deviated from the long-term equilibrium, it could be pulled back to equilibrium with an adjustment intensity of 0.3265 and that
economic growth tended to be self-stabilizing.

4. Heterogeneity of opening-up and quality of economic growth

4.1. Regional heterogeneity analysis

Based on the above discussions, it clear that the studied variabls influenced each other in the long run. However, the quality of
economic growth in the current period was not only influenced by the degree of trade openness and other factors in the current
period, but also by the economic development level in the local area. In addition, since the data in this paper belongs to a short panel,
Diff-GMM has been adopted for the unbiasedness of sample statistics. In this section, samples were divided into three regions: eastern,

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Table 7
Sample spatial distribution of different trade openness.
Threshold variable 1994 2002 2010 2018

Low trade openness Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Hainan, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Hainan, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangxi, Hainan, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou, Yunnan,
Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, Hubei, Gansu, Qinghai, Hubei, Xinjiang,
Hubei, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia

8
Medium trade Hebei, Shanxi, Jilin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hebei, Shanxi, Jilin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hebei, Shanxi, Jilin, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Shanxi, Jilin, Shandong, Henan,
openness Shandong, Henan, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Shandong, Henan, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Liaoning, Fujian, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Liaoning,
Liaoning, Fujian, Chongqing, Tianjin Ningxia, Liaoning, Fujian, Anhui Anhui Fujian, Anhui, Sichuan, Hunan
High trade openness Beijing, Shanghai Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Tianjin Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Tianjin,
Zhejiang, Jiangsu Zhejiang, Jiangsu

Note: collated by the author.

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central and western2, to carry out a regional analysis. 2SLS and GMM methods were used to test and the results are shown in Table 4.
The results indicate that trade openness had a significant positive influence on the quality of economic growth in the eastern
region, but that this positive influence was not obvious in the central and western regions. One possible reason for this discrepancy is
that the coastal and eastern regions have well-established infrastructure and abundant physical resources and human resources,
which can offer a favorable external environment for trading, meaning that opening-up was mainly concentrated in the coastal and
eastern region and had a significant promotional effect on the quality of economic growth and formation of materials and capital in
these regions.

4.2. Nonlinear characteristic analysis

In accordance with Tables 5 and 6, the relationship between trade openness and economic growth quality presents an “N-type”
characteristic trend on the whole, except for the central area (Xu Yingzhi and Guo Jin et al., 2014; Xu Jing and Meng Juan, 2015;
Zhang et al., 2020b). To be specific, when trade openness is low, opening up and economic growth quality are positively correlated;
when trade openness increases to the second threshold interval, opening up and economic growth quality are negatively correlated;
and when trade openness further rises, opening up and economic growth quality demonstrate a positive correlation once again.
Hence, increasing trade openness is a guaranteed method for improving China's economic growth quality (Chen and Z, 2010). In
addition, the provinces and cities during the period of 1994-2018 are classified on the basis of different trade openness, as shown in
Table 7. It can be seen that from 1994 to 2018, the degree of trade openness of all cities in China increased steadily, the degree of
trade openness of most cities is getting higher and higher, and the quality of economic growth is also getting higher and higher. This
proves the first conclusion: trade openness can significantly improve the quality of economic growth.

5. Conclusions

An ARDL model and a threshold model have been applied in order to analyze the relationship between trade openness and
economic growth quality under exchange rate fluctuations. Based on the above empirical results, the following conclusions can be
drawn: Firstly, that there is a long-term stable co-integration relationship between degree of trade openness and quality of economic
growth. Moreover, trade openness significantly promotes the quality of economic growth in both short and long terms. Secondly, that
the positive effect of trade openness on economic growth quality is statistically significant, with obvious regional heterogeneity.
Thirdly, that an “N-type” relationship exists between trade openness and economic growth quality. The above conclusions show that
opening up is an effective means for improving the quality of China’s economic growth. This not only enriches the modeling and
discussion of China’s trade under the new growth theory, but also, to a certain extent, enhances the theory's explanatory power.
Foreign trade will effectively improve the quality of economic growth by promoting capital formation, accelerating technological
progress, and increasing factor productivity. Therefore, the establishment of a comprehensive and open economic system is one of the
key measures necessary for promoting China’s economic growth in the high-quality development stage.

Author statement

I have made substantial contributions to the conception or design of the work; or the acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of
data for the work. I have revised the work critically for important intellectual content; and I have approved the final version to be
published.
I agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of
the work are appropriately resolved.
All persons who have made substantial contributions to the work reported in the manuscript, including those who provided
editing and writing assistance but who are not authors, are named in the Acknowledgments section of the manuscript and have given
their written permission to be named.

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2
According to the division criteria published by the National Bureau of Statics, the eastern region included 11 provincial-level administrative
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