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In this sense, decision intelligence represents a practical application of the field of complex systems, which
helps organizations to navigate the complex systems in which they find themselves. Decision intelligence
can also be thought of as a framework that brings advanced analytics and machine learning techniques to
the desktop of the non-expert decision maker, as well as incorporating, and then extending, data science to
overcome the problems articulated in black swan theory.
Decision intelligence proponents believe that many organizations continue to make poor decisions.[1] In
response, decision intelligence seeks to unify a number of decision-making best practices, described in
more detail below.
Decision intelligence builds on the insight that it is possible to design the decision itself, using principles
previously used for designing more tangible objects like bridges and buildings.
The use of a visual design language representing decisions (see § Visual decision design) is an important
element of decision intelligence, since it provides an intuitive common language readily understood by all
decision participants. A visual metaphor improves the ability to reason about complex systems[2] as well as
to enhance collaboration.
In addition to visual decision design, there are other two aspects of engineering disciplines that aid mass
adoption. These are:
Motivation
The need for a unified methodology of decision-making is driven by a number of factors that organizations
face as they make difficult decisions in a complex internal and external environment.
Recognition of the broad-based inability of current methods to solve decision-making issues in practice
comes from several sources, including government sources and industries such as telecommunications,
media, the automotive industry, and pharmaceuticals.
Examples:
The outcomes of decisions are becoming more complex, going well beyond next quarter's
revenues or other tangible outcomes to multiple goals that must be satisfied together, some
of which are often intangible:
The car is becoming an expression of identity, values, and personal control in ways that move
far beyond traditional segmentation and branding. For example, fuel efficiency will be only
one consideration for a socially responsible vehicle (SRV). What percent of the parts are
recyclable? What is the vehicle's total carbon footprint? Are there child labor inputs? Toxic
paints, glues, or plastics? How transparent is the supply chain? Is the seller accountable for
recycling? What methods are used? Are fair labor practices employed?
— Shoshana Zuboff, "The GM Solution: Life Boats, Not Life Support", Business Week,
November 18, 2008
We live in a dynamic world in which the pace, scope, and complexity of change are
increasing. The continued march of globalization, the growing number of independent actors,
and advancing technology have increased global connectivity, interdependence and
complexity, creating greater uncertainties, systemic risk and a less predictable future. These
changes have led to reduced warning times and compressed decision cycles.
In particular, dependency links in a decision model represent cause-and-effect (as in a causal loop diagram),
data flow (as in a data flow diagram), or other relationships. As an example, one link might represent the
connection between "mean time to repair a problem with telephone service" and "customer satisfaction",
where a short repair time would presumably raise customer satisfaction. The functional form of these
dependencies can be determined by a number of approaches. Numerical approaches, which analyze data to
determine these functions, include machine learning and analytics algorithms (including artificial neural
networks), as well as more traditional regression analysis. Results from operations research and many other
quantitative approaches have a similar role to play.
When data is not available (or is too noisy, uncertain, or incomplete), these dependency links can take on
the form of rules as might be found in an expert system or rule-based system, and so can be obtained
through knowledge engineering.
In this way, a decision model represents a mechanism for combining multiple relationships, as well as
symbolic and subsymbolic reasoning, into a complete solution to determining the outcome of a practical
decision.
Origins
Despite decades of development of decision support system and methodologies (like decision analysis),
these are still less popular than spreadsheets as primary tools for decision-making. Decision intelligence
seeks to bridge this gap, creating a critical mass of users of a common methodology and language for the
core entities included in a decision, such as assumptions, external values, facts, data, and conclusions. If a
pattern from previous industries holds, such a methodology will also facilitate technology adoption, by
clarifying common maturity models and road maps that can be shared from one organization to another.
The decision intelligence approach is multidisciplinary, unifying findings on cognitive bias and decision-
making, situational awareness, critical and creative thinking, collaboration and organizational design, with
engineering technologies.
Decision intelligence is both a very new and also a very old discipline. Many of its elements—such as the
language of assessing assumptions, using logic to support an argument, the necessity of critical thinking to
evaluate a decision, and understanding the impacts of bias—are ancient. Yet the realization that these
elements can form a coherent whole that provides significant benefits to organizations by focusing on a
common methodology is relatively new.
In 2018, Google's processes and training programs in applied data science were renamed to "decision
intelligence"[5] to indicate the central role of actions and decisions in the application of data science. The
extent to which the theoretical frameworks drew on the managerial and social sciences in addition to data
science was an additional motivator for unifying decision intelligence into a field of study that is distinct
from data science.[6]
Modern decision intelligence is highly interdisciplinary and academically inclusive. Research centering on
decisions, defined broadly as biological and nonbiological action selection, is considered part of the
discipline. Decision intelligence is not an umbrella term for data science and social science, however, since
it does not cover components unconcerned with decisions.
The basic idea is that a visual metaphor enhances intuitive thinking, inductive reasoning, and pattern
recognition—important cognitive skills usually less accessible in a verbal or text discussion. A business
decision map can be seen as one approach to a formal decision language to support decision intelligence.[7]
Decision intelligence recognizes that many aspects of decision-making are based on intangible elements,
including opportunity costs, employee morale, intellectual capital, brand recognition and other forms of
business value that are not captured in traditional quantitative or financial models. Value network analysis—
most notably value network maps—are therefore relevant here.
See also
Antifragility
Business intelligence
Decision quality
Design rationale
Heuristics in judgment and decision-making
Management science
Notes
^ Note the following semantic variations:
References
1. John Hagerty, Rita L. Sallam, James Richardson: "Magic Quadrant for Business Intelligence
Platforms" (http://www.gartner.com/id=1915014), Gartner, February 2012
2. Lorien Pratt and Mark Zangari: "Leading the way to complex business models" (https://web.a
rchive.org/web/20090812234107/http://www.telecomasia.net/content/leading-way-complex-
business-models), Telecom Asia, August 10, 2009.
3. Lorien Pratt and Mark Zangari: Overcoming the Decision Complexity Ceiling through
Design. (https://quantellia.com/Data/WP-OvercomingComplexity.pdf) Quantellia white paper,
December 2008
4. Rob Rich: Agile Decision Making: Improving Business Results with Analytics (https://www.re
uters.com/article/2011/11/09/idUS186771+09-Nov-2011+BW20111109) TM Forum,
November 2011
5. "Why Google defined a new discipline to help humans make decisions" (https://www.fastco
mpany.com/90203073/why-google-defined-a-new-discipline-to-help-humans-make-decision
s). Fast Company. 2018-07-18. Retrieved 2018-08-07.
6. Tech Open Air (2018-08-09), Decision Intelligence (ML++) - Cassie Kozyrkov (Google)
#TOA18 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr4P_jCdUFs), retrieved 2018-08-15
7. Joseph Waring: Understanding Telecom Complexity through Visual Analysis (http://www.tele
comasia.net/content/understanding-telecom-complexity-through-visual-analysis) Telecom
Asia, January 04, 2010
8. "Mastercard Rolls Out Artificial Intelligence Across its Global Network" (https://newsroom.ma
stercard.com/press-releases/mastercard-rolls-out-artificial-intelligence-across-its-global-net
work/). mastercard.com. November 30, 2016. Retrieved 2019-06-23.
9. See, e.g. Roy Rajkumar: "Cost engineering: why, what, and how?" (https://dspace.lib.cranfiel
d.ac.uk/handle/1826/64) and other publications from the University of Cranfield UK's
Decision Engineering Centre.
Bibliography
Peter F. Drucker. Harvard Business Review on Decision Making. (2001) ISBN 1-57851-557-
2
John S. Hammond. Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions. (2002)
ISBN 0-7679-0886-4
Edward Russo. Decision Traps. (1990) ISBN 0-385-24835-0
Paul J.H. Shoemaker. Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time. (2001) ISBN 0-
7499-2285-0
Scott Plous. The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (1993) ISBN 0-07-050477-6