GS - India Multibaggers

Okay 1 June 2023 | 7:30PM SGT
Asia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy
Investing in India’s medium-term growth story: Identifying

potential multibaggers
India offers compelling long-term beta and outsized alpha opportunities within EM Sunil Koul
+65-6654-5042 | sunil.koul@gs.com
India’s economy has grown 7-fold in the past two decades, delivering a nominal GDP Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte
CAGR of 10%. Equity returns have matched this strong economic performance, with Amorita Goel
+65-6654-5445 | amorita.goel@gs.com
BSE 200 offering 16%/13% annualized returns in local currency/USD terms, almost Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte
double the 7% offered by the MSCI EM index. Beneath the headline index, nearly Timothy Moe, CFA
+65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com
40% of the BSE 200 stocks have generated >20% annualized returns over the past Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte
two decades, 2x the ratio for EM, suggesting ample alpha opportunities. Alvin So, CFA
+852-2978-1585 | alvin.so@gs.com
For the exclusive use of RAJIV.NIHALANI@AMUNDI.COM
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
John Kwon
India has delivered the highest proportion of multibaggers; Six common traits +65-6654-6337 | jongmin.kwon@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte
We analyze 10 major markets across EM/DM, covering 6700 stocks and examine
Mark Hung
“10-baggers” – stocks that have generated at least 10x total returns within a rolling +852-3465-4266 | mark.hung@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
5-year period over the past two decades. In India, more than half (54%) of the NSE
500 (269 stocks) generated 10-bagger returns, the largest proportion of multibaggers
among the 10 markets (vs. 30%/20% averages for EM/DM). The 269 multibagger
stocks all share a number of the following traits: 1) high realized growth rates; 2)
high capital return ratios; 3) mid/small-cap bias; 4) inexpensive starting valuations; 5)
domestic sector orientation; and 6) high promoter holding.
Investing in India’s medium-term growth story

In India, the domestic macro environment appears stable given peak inflation/rates
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
and manageable current account. Activity has been improving and recent quarterly
earnings have been better-than-expected, supporting our mid-teen earnings growth
expectations over the next 2 years. We think resilient macro and improving micro
environment is conducive for strong medium-term growth and recommend investors
to build exposure in India, focusing on pockets of the markets that offer strong future
growth prospects. We highlight 10 broad growth themes and 30 domestic
sub-industries that offer high revenue/earnings growth over the coming 2-3 years.
Introducing GS India Largecap Compounders, Midcap Multibaggers baskets

Our Largecap Compounders basket (GSINLCCP) consists of 25 stocks that offer
expected 17% sales growth and 26% earnings growth over 2023-2025 (3-year
CAGR), at 22x 2024E P/E. Midcap Multibaggers (GSINMCMB) comprises 35 stocks
that satisfy at least 4 out of the 6 multibagger criteria, generate 18% ROE and offer
20%/38% 23-25E Sales/EPS CAGR.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC
certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
Goldman Sachs Asia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy
India offers compelling long-term beta and outsized alpha opportunities
At its core, the investment case for Indian equities has been the potential to deliver
higher returns than many of its emerging and developed market peers, given its higher
growth potential, supported, among other things, by favorable demographics, ongoing
reforms, and formalization of the economy with increased digitalization.
India’s economic growth has generally been strong over the past two decades.
India’s economy has grown 7-fold in the past two decades, from about half a trillion US
dollars at the end of 2002 to about US$3.4tn currently. While there has been some
cyclical growth slowdown in years preceding the Covid-19, followed by pandemic impact
in recent years, India has delivered a nominal GDP CAGR of 10% over the past two
decades between 2002 and 2022, second only to China and surpassing most other
Asian and developed market peers. Looking forward, our economists forecast that
India’s economy can grow at potential growth of 6.7% real GDP over the next 10 years
(vs. 6.4% CAGR over the past 2 decades), with India becoming a US$5tn economy by
2026 (see Discovering India’s potential).
Capital market growth and realized equity returns have matched strong economic
performance over the long term. India’s aggregate equity market capitalization has
risen twelve-fold since 2003. The average market capitalization to GDP ratio has
increased by 11pp, from 76% in the previous decade (2003-2012) to 87% in the recent
decade (2013-22), suggesting ongoing capital market development. The realized
long-term equity returns at the headline index level have also been compelling.
Over the past two decades, NIFTY 50 and the broader BSE 200 index have offered
15-16% annualized returns in local currency, and 12-13% in USD terms, almost double
the 7% offered by the MSCI EM index. The 20-year USD annualized return for India has
also led major equity markets globally (US, Europe, Japan and Asian peers), although the
US markets have fared better in the recent decade, given superior earnings delivery, as
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
we have discussed in our recent Global Strategy Paper (see The Asian earnings enigma).
Moreover, Indian markets have offered outsized alpha opportunities. In addition to a

strong track record of delivering long-term beta via a simple buy-and-hold index strategy,
the equity market in India has offered outsized stock returns and alpha opportunities for
EM investors. Over the past two decades, about 60% of the current BSE 200 stocks
would have outperformed the benchmark. Nearly 40% of the current BSE 200 stocks
have generated more than 20% annualized returns over the past two decades,
double the 20% of stocks for broader MSCI EM.
Given the strong historical track record of outsized alpha in India, we delve into
multibagger stocks, specifically focusing on stocks that have delivered at least 10x
returns and study their common traits in the subsequent section.
1 June 2023 2
Exhibit 1: India has delivered a nominal GDP CAGR of 10% over the Exhibit 2: India’s aggregate market capitalization has risen
past two decades, second only to China and surpassing most other twelve-fold since 2003; The average cap to GDP ratio has increased
Asian and developed market peers by 11pp in the recent decade, compared to the previous decade
Nominal GDP Growth CAGR (%) US$tn India market cap and Mcap-to-GDP ratio since 2003 %
5
14% 13%
Past 20 yrs (2003-22) Mcap-to-GDP (%, RHS) 140
12%
10% Past decade (2013-22) 4 India Market Cap (US$ tn, LHS)
10% 120
8%
8%
6% 3
6% Recent decade 100
Previous decade (2013-22: 87%)
4% (2003-12: 76%)
2
80
2%
0% 1 60
Philippines
Malaysia
South Korea
Singapore
India
Japan
US
China
Australia
Thailand
Taiwan
Indonesia
Hong Kong
0 40
2003
2005
2007
2008
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2018
2019
2021
2022
2004
2006
2009
2012
2017
2020
Source: Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: Over the past two decades, NIFTY and the broader BSE Exhibit 4: Indian equities have led most of the major markets
200 index have offered 15-16% annualized returns in local currency, globally over the past two decades; US markets have however
and 12-13% in USD terms, almost 2x the 7% offered by MSCI EM fared better in the recent decade
India vs. EM: Past 20-year indexed performance 15%

Index = 100 MSCI Price Return (Annualized, USD)
(FY03-FY23)
2,500 10%
NIFTY (INR) BSE 200 (INR) NIFTY (USD)
BSE 200 (USD) MSCI EM 16%
2,000 5%
15%
1,500 0%
13%
-5% Past 20 yrs (2003-22)
1,000 12%
Past decade (2013-22)
-10%
500 Philippines
NIFTY (India)
MSCI India
USA
China
Korea
World
Singapore
Europe
Japan
Malaysia
Taiwan
MXASJ
Australia
Indonesia
Thailand
Hong Kong
BSE 200 (India)
7%
0
Mar-09
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Source: WFE, data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI
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Exhibit 5: Over the past two decades, about 60% of the current BSE 200 stocks outperformed the benchmark and nearly 40% of BSE 200
stocks have generated more than 20% annualized returns, double the 20% of stocks for the broader MSCI EM
20-yr CAGR of BSE 200 and MSCI EM stocks

% companies by price return in last 20 years (FY03-FY23) in USD
40% MXEF: 7% BSE200: 13%
35%
BSE200 MSCI EM
30% 28%
25%
25% 22%
% stocks
20% Note: Based on current index

composition since stock listing
15%
10% 6% 7%
4%
5% 3%
1% 1% 1%
0%
[<-20%] [-20% - -10%] [-10% - 0%] [0% - 10%] [10% - 20%] [20% - 30%] [30% - 40%] [40% - 50%] [50% - 60%] [>60%]
20-yr CAGR
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1 June 2023 3
India has delivered the highest proportion of multibaggers
In order to better understand the drivers behind generating outsized returns in the stock
market, we examine the multibagger stocks in India and other key markets globally over
the past decade, similar to the methodology used for the China equity markets by our
China strategists (see Finding the next multibaggers in China: When “Little” becomes
“Giant”).
Specifically, we analyze 10 markets across EM and DM, covering about 6700 stocks
over the past two decades and focus on stocks that were “10-baggers” and able to
generate at least 10x total returns in their local currency within a 5-year rolling
period (monthly since 2000). For the rest of the report, we use the generic term
“multibagger” interchangeably for such 10-bagger stocks.
n About a quarter of the stocks were multibaggers; EM outpaced DM. Out of the
universe of 6700 stocks, about 1500 stocks (23%) were able to generate at least 10x
total returns within a 5-year rolling period since 2000. The six EM markets in our
study (India, Korea, Brazil, South Africa, China and Taiwan) on average had 30% of
their local benchmark stocks generating 10-bagger returns. The 4 DM markets (US,
Japan, Europe and Australia) on average had only 20% of the stocks delivering
multibagger returns. We show detailed distribution of these 1500+ multibagger
stocks by years across these 10 markets in the Appendix (Exhibit 35).
n India has delivered the highest proportion of multibagger stocks. More than
half – about 269 out of the NSE 500 stocks (54%) – have generated over 10x
returns, within a 5-year rolling period since 2000, the largest proportion of
multibaggers among the 10 global markets covered in our study. As a comparison,
China (MSCI China) and Taiwan (TWSE) markets had only 18% while US (SPX) and
Japan (Topix) had 16% stocks generating 10-bagger returns, one-third of the
proportion of the stocks in India. We include a list of the 269 multibaggers in India in
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
the Appendix at the end of the report (Exhibit 36 and Exhibit 37).
n Multibaggers in India have generated median peak returns of 24x. Within the 10
markets, it took 52 months (on a median basis) for these 1500 stocks to reach the
10x threshold, achieving a total return of 16x when they hit the peak price levels
during their respective 5-year (or shorter) outperformance window. In the case of
India, it took 54 months on average and the stocks delivered 24x median
returns, 1.5x the median across the 10 markets and second highest after Australia
(which delivered slightly higher 25x median returns).
1 June 2023 4
Exhibit 6: More than half (54%) of NSE 500 stocks have generated over 10x returns within a 5-year rolling period since 2000, the largest
proportion of multibaggers among 10 major markets globally
% Multibaggers across markets since 2000s

60% Companies with Total Return > 10x in local currency within a 5-year rolling period
50% 54%
40%
EM average (~30%)
34% 35%
30% 32% DM average (~20%)
29%
20%
18% 18% 17% 16% 16%
10%
0%
India Korea Brazil South Africa China Taiwan Australia Europe US Japan
NSE 500 KOSPI IBOV JALSH MSCI China TWSE ASX 200 SXXP SPX TOPIX
EM DM
Source: Bloomberg, Local Indices, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 7: It took 54 months for Indian multibaggers to reach their peak, achieving a median performance of 24x during their respective
5-year (or shorter) periods, 1.5x median returns across 10 markets globally
60 # months reqd. for multibaggers to reach the peak 30x Total stock returns for multibaggers at the peak
(within a 5-yr period since 2000, average across stocks) (within a 5-yr rolling period since 2000, median across stocks)
55 54 25x 24x
Overall Median = 52 months
50 20x
Overall Median returns = 16x
45 15x
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
40 10x
Japan
Korea
Brazil
India
China
Europe
South Africa
US
Taiwan
Australia
India
Korea
Japan
Brazil
US
South Africa
Australia
China
Europe
Taiwan
MSCI TWSE TOPIX KOSPI ASX NSE SXXP JALSH SPX IBOV ASX NSE IBOV SPX KOSPI TOPIX MSCI JALSH TWSE SXXP
China 200 500 200 500 China
1 June 2023 5
Common traits of multibaggers
We take a closer look at the 269 multibaggers in India over the past two decades and
observe the following common characteristics among them:
1) Growth – High realized sales and profit growth

Multibagger stocks have exhibited high revenue and earnings growth. About 60% of the
multibaggers managed to generate at least 20% revenue growth and at least 30% profit
growth during their outperformance periods. The median sales CAGR was 25%, while
the median profit CAGR was 37%. This reinforces the core investing principle that
earnings growth is the fundamental driver of long-term equity returns. Moreover, 80%
of the multibaggers have seen a margin increase during their outperformance periods,
likely reflecting high efficiency of the businesses and high pricing power, in our view.
Exhibit 8: High realized sales and earnings growth have been a Exhibit 9: About 80% of multibaggers have seen a margin increase
common feature of multibaggers; About 60% of the multibaggers during their outperformance periods
managed to generate at least 20% revenue growth and at least 30%

profit growth
Sales and Earnings growth of multibagger in India Sales growth and Margin distribution of multibaggers in India
% companies, annualised growth (% of companies, Non-financials)
30% 30%
26% Profit Margin increase Profit Margin decrease
24% Ex-financials Sales growth
25% 5%
% multibagger stocks
Earnings growth
25%
20%
19% 7%
20% 18%
20% 2% 6%
15% 12% 12%
13%
9% 15%
10% 8%
6% 6% 6% 23%
10% 20% 19%
5% 2%
3% 3% 3% 3%
2% 2% 18%
1% 1% 1% 0%
0% 5%
<0%
>100%
0% - 10%
10% - 20%
20% - 30%
50% - 60%
60% - 70%
70% - 80%
80% - 90%
90% - 100%
30% - 40%
40% - 50%
0%
<15% 15% - 25% 25% - 35% >35%
Sales Growth CAGR (CY Sales CAGR from start to end year as a multibagger)
Sales / Earnings CAGR (from start to end year as a multibagger)
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Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
2) Capital allocation – High return ratios

Multibagger stocks are also efficient capital allocators and exhibit high return ratios. A
majority of the multibaggers generated ROE (Return on equity) and Cash ROIC (Cash
return on invested capital) in excess of 15% during their outperformance periods. About
three-fourths of the multibagger stocks had increasing ROEs.
1 June 2023 6
Exhibit 10: Majority of the multibaggers have either high or rising return ratios during their outperformance periods
Return on Equity (ROE) of Multibaggers Cash ROIC of Multibaggers

Starting ROE Starting ROIC
% of multibaggers % of multibaggers
Low (<15%) High (>15%) Low (<15%) High (>15%)
Change in ROIC
Change in ROE
Decrease 3% 23% Decrease 9% 33%
Increase 43% 32% Increase 36% 21%
Note: Cash return on Invested Capital (Cash ROIC) is defined as CFO / Avg. Total Invested Capital; Calendar year ROE and ROIC have been used during
multibagger period
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
3) Size – Small/mid-cap bias

Smaller companies (in terms of market cap and initial share in profit pool) implies larger
headroom for growth and a favorable low base effect for stock returns, all else being
equal. Consequently, smaller companies with rapid growth rates are more likely to
become multibaggers. We note that about half of the multibaggers in India had an
initial market cap of less than US$50mn. While market cap categorizations and
thresholds vary over time, about 70% of the multibaggers belonged in the bottom 250
of the NSE 500 constituents in their initial year (typically small caps) and only 12%
belonged in Top 100 NSE 500 constituents (large caps), suggesting multibaggers
historically have been dominated by small and midcap stocks.
Exhibit 11: Favorable base effect in terms of relatively smaller Exhibit 12: Multibaggers have been dominated by small and midcap
size/market capitalization has helped in ensuing strong returns stocks historically
Multibagger starting market capitalisation Size of multibagger

Microcapcompanies
# multibaggers vs. USD market cap 0%
% companies by starting market cap size
300
6 1 1
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
Largecap
# multibagger stocks
250 15
26 269 12%
14
200 17
41
150
Midcap
100 18%
148
50
0
Note: Cap size in any
<50mn
Total
50 - 100mn
1 - 5bn
>10bn
100 - 150mn
200 - 500mn
500mn - 1bn
5 - 10bn
150 - 200mn
year is based on market Smallcap

cap thresholds of NSE500 70%
contituents:
Top 100: Largecap
Next 150: Midcap
USD Market Cap at the start of multibagger period Other: Smallcap
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: FactSet, NSE, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1 June 2023 7
4) Sector tilt – Domestic cyclicals concentration

Sectorally, domestic cyclical sectors (investment and consumer cyclicals) have produced
the largest number of multibaggers (54%). Specifically, cement, chemicals, capital
goods and consumer durables and retail have seen the largest number of multibaggers.
While some multibaggers also belonged to non-domestic sectors (IT/exporters,
commodity cyclicals), the majority of the multibaggers were from domestic cyclical
sectors in 70% of the years over the past two decades. This suggests a strong tilt
towards domestic cyclicals, across multiple periods historically.
Exhibit 13: Domestic cyclical sectors (Investment and Consumer Exhibit 14: Specifically, cement, chemicals, capital goods and
cyclicals) have produced the largest number of multibaggers consumer durables and retail have seen the largest number of
multibaggers
Multibagger Sector Categories 20% Multibagger Sectors
40% % multibagger stocks by sector category % multibagger stocks by sector
35% 16%
30% 12%
25%
8%
20%
15% 4%
10%
0%
5%
Div. Financials
Software & Services
Energy
Transport
Cap Goods
Banks
Metals & Mining
Real Estate
Cement, Chemicals &
Durables, Apparel &
Autos
Healthcare
Staples
Internet/Media
Utilities
Tech HW & Semis
Telecom
Insurance
Other Materials
0%
Investment
Defensive
Commodity
Consumer
Exporters
Internet/Media
Financials
Retail
Cyclicals
Cyclicals
Cyclical
Exhibit 15: Since 2000, in 70% of the years, majority of the multibaggers belonged to domestic cyclical sectors, suggesting a strong tilt
towards domestic cyclicals, across multiple periods historically
Historical occurrence of 'multibaggers' across sectors (by starting year)

# 'Multibagger' stocks Majority
% in
multibaggers
Investment Consumer Commodity Internet / Period Domestic
Starting year Exporters Financials Defensive in Domestic
Cyclicals Cyclical Cyclicals Media Total Cyclicals
Cyclicals?
2000 1 0 0 3 1 1 0 6 17% 0
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
2001 20 7 9 7 2 1 0 46 59% 1
2002 16 3 3 3 4 2 0 31 61% 1
2003 20 6 4 6 9 10 0 55 47% 0
2004 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 5 60% 1
2005 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 33% 0
2006 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 5 80% 1
2007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -
2008 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 100% 1
2009 8 8 8 4 2 0 0 30 53% 1
2010 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 67% 1
2011 1 1 4 0 0 0 1 7 29% 0
2012 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 4 75% 1
2013 14 8 4 4 3 2 0 35 63% 1
2014 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 100% 1
2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -
2016 4 0 2 0 1 0 0 7 57% 1
2017 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 33% 0
2018 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 4 50% 1
2019 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 5 60% 1
2020 3 0 5 2 4 1 0 15 20% 0
2021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -
2022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -
2023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -
68%
Since 2000 98 46 43 34 29 17 2 269 54%
occurrence
Domestic Cyclicals: Investment and Consumer Cyclicals; Investment Cyclicals: Industrials, Chemicals, Construction & Other Materials, Real Estate ;
Consumer Cyclicals: Consumer Discretionary; Exporters: Infotech, Healthcare; Defensives: Staples, Utilities, Telecom; Commodity Cyclicals: Energy, Metals
1 June 2023 8
5) Inexpensive starting valuations

About 70% of the stocks in our universe either traded at less than 1x LTM P/B ratio or
below 10x NTM P/E before they eventually became multibaggers. The “low starting
valuation” of multibaggers however seems to be correlated to prevailing broad market
valuations. About 60% of the multibaggers took off during market crisis periods of
2001-2002 (dot com crisis), 2008-09 (GFC), 2013 (taper tantrum concerns) and 2020
(Covid-19 shock). This suggests that external crises/shocks or low prevailing market
valuations have offered good entry points historically for picking multibaggers. This also
partly explains why the previous decade (2002-12) produced more multibaggers than the
recent decade (2013-22).
Exhibit 16: Most multibaggers trade at very inexpensive starting valuation multiples: About 70% of the
companies have either traded at less than 1x LTM P/B ratio or below 10x NTM P/E ratio
Starting Valuations of Multibaggers

% companies
70% 66%
60%
50%
40% 37% 36%

35% 34%
30%
20%
20% 15% 16%
10% 7% 6% 6% 6%
3% 3% 3% 2% 3%
1%
0%
5 - 10x
5 - 10x
0 - 1x
1 - 2x
2 - 3x
3 - 4x
4 - 5x
0 - 5x
0 - 5x
>5x
>25x
>25x
10 - 15x
15 - 20x
20 - 25x
10 - 15x
15 - 20x
20 - 25x
LTM P/B NTM P/E LTM P/E
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Exhibit 17: Low prevailing market valuations appears supportive for picking multibaggers; External crises
have offered good entry points historically
# multibaggers MSCI India 12m fPE vs. # multibaggers MXIN fPE
30 # Multibagger stocks MSCI India 12m fPE (RHS) 25X
25
20X
20
TMT/Dot com
15 crisis 15X
Taper-tantrum Covid-19 shock
EU debt concerns 13.8x
10 13.0x concerns
2008 GFC 11.9x 10X
7.2x
5 9.3x
8.2x
0 5X
Dec-03
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Starting date of multibaggers
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1 June 2023 9
6) High promoter holding

On average within the multibagger companies, promoters held a majority equity stake
(58%), while institutional investors had a relatively smaller ownership of 23% at the
start of the multibagger period. In terms of the distribution, about 60% of the
multibaggers had promoters as the majority shareholders (> 50% holding) at the start
(before the stocks took off).
Exhibit 18: On average within the multibagger companies, Exhibit 19: About 60% of the multibaggers had promoters as the
promoters held a majority equity stake (58%), while institutional majority shareholders (> 50% holding) at the start
investors had a relatively smaller ownership of 23%
Ownership structure of Ownership structure at the START of Multibagger period

60%
Multibaggers
Non-
Institutions 50%
Average shareholding ownership (Retail,
52%
% at start of the mulibagger Corporate)
% companies
40%
period 19%
Promoter / 35%
Institutions 30%
Insider
(Foreign,
58% 20%
Domestic)
23%
10%
9%
0% 4%
0 - 25% 25 - 50% 50 - 75% 75 - 100%
Promoter / Insider Ownership %
Summary of our 6-factor multibagger framework

We acknowledge that the above six characteristics are not exhaustive and there are
likely to be other unobservable or hard to quantify factors (such as competitive
advantage, quality of management, etc.) that also contribute to the strong returns.
However, all 269 historical multibagger stocks in India over the past two decades
share at least one of the above 6 traits, and about 75% of them share at least 4
traits.
Among the six factors, Size, Promoter holding, Growth, and Valuations have been
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
comparatively more dominant factors, while Sector and Capital allocation appear to be
less influential in identifying multibaggers. However, on all of these 6 characteristics, the
multibagger stocks on a median basis compare favorably than the broader NSE 500.
Exhibit 20: The 6 traits have collectively explained the occurrence of

all historical multibagger stocks; About 75% of the stocks have
satisfied at least 4 criteria
# Criteria met by multibagger stocks
Median total return
# criteria met # of stocks %
within 6Y (X)
1 6 2% 35x
2 16 6% 41x
3 48 18% 21x
4 65 24% 20x
5 82 30% 23x
6 52 19% 28x
Total 269 100% 24x
1 June 2023 10
Exhibit 21: The six key common traits of historical multibaggers in the Indian equity universe
Stocks meeting multibagger criteria

Out of total 269 multibagger stocks
# cos. Return (x)
# cos. meeting criteria Median Total Return within 5Y (x)
250 30x
200 28x
150 26x
100 24x
50 22x
236 232 204 188 160 144
0 20x
Mid-Small cap
Capital allocation
Domestic Cyclicals
High realised growth
Low Valuation
High Promoter holding
/ High ROE
Note: 1) Promoter ownership > 50% at the start of multibagger prd; 2) Earnings or Sales growth > 20% during the 5Y multibagger
prd; 3) Mid-small cap at the start of multibagger prd; 4) Starting NTM PE or LTM PE < 10x or LTM PB < 1x; 5) Has sector tilt
towards domestic cyclicals sectors; 6) Starting ROE > 15% or ROE increasing during the 5Y multibagger prd.
Exhibit 22: On all of these 6 characteristics, the multibagger stocks compare favorably with the broader
NSE 500 market
Multibaggers vs. NSE500 stocks

Score (0-100) on 6 'multibagger' criteria; Higher score = more favorable
Scores based on median values during past 5Y 'multibagger' prds. since 2000
Domestic Cyclical tilt* NSE500
100
Multibaggers
80
Capital allocation / Improving 60

Small/MidCap bias**
ROE
40
20
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
0
High Realised Growth High Promoter holding
Low Starting Valuation

Note: 1) Score calculated using min-max feature scaling of median values (min/max = 10th/90th%ile); 2) Starting Valuation based on
starting NTM PE, LTM PE and LTM PB; 3) Realised Growth based on realised Earnings and Sales growth; 4) *Domestic Cyclical tilt
measured as proportion of stocks with sector tilt towards Industrials, Cement, Consumer Durables; 5) **Small/Midcap bias measured
as proportion of stocks classified as Small/Midcap at the start of the period
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, NSE, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1 June 2023 11
Risks: Drawdown risks are manageable, but active risk management is required
While India has historically offered superior multibagger peak returns (24x median
total returns vs. 16x for the overall 1500 multibagger stocks across 10 markets), we
acknowledge that stocks don’t go up in a straight line and often investors are likely to
face drawdowns on the road to multibagger returns, particularly given the small-mid cap
dominance among multibagger stocks, which is usually associated with higher price
volatility.
In order to quantify the mark-to-market pain if investors were to hold their positions
through time, we look at how frequent and deep the drawdowns have been historically.
More specifically, we calculate maximum drawdown for each of the 1500 global
multibagger stocks in local currency, during the 5-year rolling period covered in the study
since 2000. We note three specific observations:
n First, the 269 multibagger stocks in India have seen a median drawdown of about
31%, which is in line with the overall median for the 1500 global stocks, and in terms
of ranking, India stacks up as the middle of the pack.
n Second, while the median drawdowns in case of India don’t sound excessive
compared to the 24x median returns, the worse case returns could be as bad as
90% drawdown, for specific stocks highlighting the inherent mark-to-mark risk.
However, only 12% of the multibaggers had maximum drawdowns > 50%,
suggesting the left tail risks have historically been small.
n Lastly, looking at the annual frequency of occurrence of drawdowns, we note that

most years in the past two decades have seen stock drawdowns, suggesting the
inherent idiosyncratic drawdown risk, which might be less correlated to
worsening macro environment or global crisis/shocks.
Moreover, there could be another more fundamental risk if valuations (as the
multibaggers take off) become stretched, or even worse, if operating performance of
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
the stock deteriorates, which could be trigger points for harvesting gains. While we
haven’t explored the characteristics of multibagger peaks in this report, history suggests
that it has taken 52 months (more than 4 years) on a median basis for stocks to reach
their peak, suggesting a long runway for growth. However, we acknowledge the need
for active position/risk management for these small/mid-cap multibaggers during
the course of delivering their outsized returns.
1 June 2023 12
Exhibit 23: India multibaggers have seen a median drawdown of about 31%, which is in line with the
overall median for the 1500 global stocks; In terms of ranking, India stacks up as the middle of the pack
Maximum drawdown in total return of multibaggers

(within the 10x bagger period, median across stocks, local currency return)
-5%
-15%
-25% -31%
-35%
Overall Median Drawdown = -32%
-45%
Worst across stocks
-55%
-65%
-75%
-85%
-95%
South Europe US China India Brazil Australia Taiwan Japan Korea
Africa
JALSH SXXP SPX MSCI China NSE 500 IBOV ASX 200 TWSE TOPIX KOSPI
Exhibit 24: Only 12% of the multibaggers had maximum drawdown Exhibit 25: Most years in the past two decades have seen stock
> 50%, suggesting the left tail risks have historically been small drawdowns in India, suggesting the inherent idiosyncratic risks
Maximum Drawdown in Multibaggers in India Max Drawdown during the 10x bagger period
% multibagger stocks, Drawdown during 10x bagger prd Median across India multibagger stocks, during 10x prd
35% 31% 32%
0% 90
Median drawdown across stocks (%)
30%
80
25% (10%)
# multibaggers seeing drawdown

70
20% (20%)
15% 13% 60
11%
10% 8% (30%) 50
5% 3% 1%
Median Drawdown % 40
0% 0% 1% 0% (40%)
0% 30
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
(50%)
>0%
[-10%] - [0%]
[-100%] - [-90%]
[-90%] - [-80%]
[-60%] - [-50%]
[-40%] - [-30%]
[-30%] - [-20%]
[-80%] - [-70%]
[-70%] - [-60%]
[-50%] - [-40%]
[-20%] - [-10%]
# stocks
20
(60%)
10
(70%) 0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Max Drawdown during the 10x bagger period (local currency)
1 June 2023 13
Investing in India’s medium-term growth story
We are constructive on Indian equities and have been recommending medium-term

investors to build exposure in India over coming months on any market weakness. The
domestic macro environment has been stable given peaking inflation/hiking cycle and
manageable current account, supported by strong services exports and robust
remittances. Activity has been improving, corporate earnings have been tracking
better-than-expected based on 1Q reporting season and expected to rise 17% for
full-year in 2023 and another 15% next year and valuations have adjusted.
We think the stable macro and improving micro environment creates a runway for
strong medium-term growth for India. As such, investors should focus on
industries/pockets of the market that offer strong growth opportunities over the
medium-term and then distill the broad themes into targeted stock ideas, leveraging the
insights from the historical multibagger study.
To identify structural themes that are likely to have strong future growth prospects, we
use three different approaches:
1. Themes with explicit policy support: We continue to like the structural theme of
Make-in-India driven by the Indian government’s production-linked incentives (PLI)
schemes that seek to expand India’s manufacturing base and benefit from
incremental supply chain redeployment from China. Various industries related to
energy transition (Solar, EV, Battery), import substitution (Large scale Electronics,
IT hardware, Telecom & Networking Products, and White Goods, API) and traditional
export industries are exposed to the PLI schemes and likely to benefit from this
broader theme. See “Make-in-India” reports for details (Kick-starting growth engines
with PLIs, Exploring the 14 Production Linked Incentive Schemes, Stock implications
from PLI schemes). Additionally, the government has continued to focus on capital
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
expenditure in recent years (on railways, roads, highways, defense) and so we see
‘Capex cyclicals’ (Infrastructure, E&C, and allied industries: transportation, logistics,
cement) to be the primary beneficiaries (see Indian equities: Time to accumulate;
Buy Quality at Reasonable Price for latest views and themes).
2. Key growth areas based on macro/sector trends: Based on the key macro trends
and leveraging the work of our sector analysts, we compile a list of 10 key growth
areas in India. The overarching themes include Energy security / self-sufficiency;
import substitution and supply chain security (under the broader Make-in-India
initiatives); pick up in manufacturing and capex cycle; still large growth headroom
in select consumption sectors like QSR (supported by drivers such as rising
disposable incomes, urbanization and favorable demographics) and high income
consumption; digitalization of consumption and services (across digital
payments, food delivery and online travel), formalization of credit, financialization of
household savings and healthcare services. Although this list is not exhaustive, it
does give a specific indication of where attractive growth opportunities may lie,
especially for investors with a medium-term outlook. We include links to many of our
sector analysts’ industry reports for investors who wish to explore specific themes
1 June 2023 14
in greater detail (see Appendix II).

3. High growth domestic industries: Given the positive fundamental linkages
between the equity market industries indices and economic growth, we use a
top-down approach to screen out economically sensitive domestic industries that
are expected to offer strong growth over coming years:
o We start with CNX 500 stocks and organize them according to their GICS-4
sub-industries (105 sub-industries in total), the most granular industry level
based on MSCI sector classification.
o We then filter out sub-industries with two or fewer stocks, which leaves us
with 59 sub-industries.
o Within these 59 sub-industries, we screen for sub-industries that are
expected to either deliver more than 15% revenue or earnings growth over
the next 3-years (2023-2025 CAGR), resulting in 42 sub-industries.
o Finally, we run correlation analysis to further screen for sub-industries which
have exhibited high revenue growth correlation (for non-financials) and
earnings growth correlation (for financials) with GDP/economic growth, with

an implicit view that these sub-industries should be able to capture the strong
economic growth in India, resulting in 30 sub-industries. These 30
sub-industries together account for roughly 35% of current earnings and 40%
of CNX 500 market cap.
Exhibit 28 shows our top-down approach to identify high growth domestically-sensitive

sub-industries, while Exhibit 29 shows the final sectoral/ sub-industry lists.
Exhibit 26: We highlight 10 broad growth themes that hold the prospect of significant growth in coming years in India
Key Growth Areas in India
S.no Key Themes Sub-themes/Key sectors Key exposed Sub-Industries
Make-in-India / Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme
Solar PV Modules; ACC Batteries / Energy storage Automobile Manufacturers Automotive Parts & Equipment Electrical Components & Equipment
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
1 Energy Transition
(ESS); Electric vehicles adoption Motorcycle Manufacturers
Large scale Electronics, IT hardware, Telecom & Electronic Manufacturing Services Consumer Electronics Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Import substitution / Networking Products, White Goods (ACs and LEDs),
2 Household Appliances Industrial Machinery & Supplies Pharmaceuticals
Supply chain security Drug Intermediaries & API, Medical Devices, Speciality
Steel Specialty Chemicals Systems Software
3 Export Industries Food Processing, Pharma, Textile Packaged Foods & Meats, Pharma Textiles
Traditional growth areas
Aerospace & Defense Air Freight & Logistics Building Products, Construction Materials
Construction & Engineering, Construction
Electronic Manufacturing Services Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
4 Manufacturing / Capex recovery Infrastructure, EMS, Cement, Logistics Machinery
Heavy Electrical Equipment Highways & Railtracks Industrial Conglomerates
Industrial Machinery & Supplies Rail Transportation; Marine Ports & Services Real Estate Development
Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods Automobile Manufacturers Footwear

Quick Service Restaurants (QSR); Upper income
5 Domestic Consumption Hotels Resorts Household, Personal Care Products Passenger Airlines
consumption; HPC
Restaurants Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages Wireless Telecommunication Services
Digitalization of consumption and services
Hotels Resorts & Cruise Lines Interactive Media & Services Other Specialty Retail
6 Internet E-commerce; Food Delivery; Online travel
Restaurants
Commercial Retail; Digital payments / Lending (Fin Regional Banks Transaction & Payment Processing Services
7 Formalization of credit
tech)
Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance Consumer Finance
8 Formalization of workforce Staffing Human Resource & Employment Services
Other themes
Diversified Financial Services Financial Exchanges & Data Insurance Brokers

9 Financialization of household savings Brokers, Insurance/Mutual funds
Investment Banking & Brokerage
Complex/Specialty drugs (Biosimilar; Generic Biotechnology Health Care Facilities, Services Life Sciences Tools & Services
10 Healthcare injectables); Healthcare services (Tertiary care in
Hospitals); Branded generic markets in EM Pharmaceuticals
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1 June 2023 15
Exhibit 27: More than 40 sub-industries are expected to offer earnings growth CAGR above 15% over next 3-years, with most trading at
reasonable PEG ratios
70% 3.0
3-year (CY23-25) Earnings CAGR above 15%
60%
Consensus estimates; GICS Sub-Industry based on NSE500 stocks 2.5
Fwd. PEG ratio (X, NTM PE / STM

2023/25 CAGR %
50%
40% 2.0
30% 1.5
20%
1.0
10%
0% 0.5
Electrical Components,…
Industrial Machinery &…
Diversified Chemicals
Heavy Electrical Equipment
Specialty Chemicals
Diversified Fin. Svcs.

Consumer Finance
Household Appliances
Broadline Retail
Internet/Media & Entertainment
Footwear
Apparel & Luxury Goods
Pharma
Auto Manufacturers
Health Care Services

Fertilizers & Agri Chemicals
Diversified Banks
Air Freight & Logistics

Tires & Rubber
Restaurants
Commodity Chemicals
Construction Materials
Automotive Parts & Equipment
Apparel Retail
Systems Software
Housing Finance
Div. Real Estate Activities
Application Software
Textiles
Hotels, Resorts
Building Products
Integrated Telco Svcs.
Health Care Facilities

Regional Banks
Real Estate Development
Construction & Engg.
Motorcycle Manufacturers
Packaged Foods & Meats

Construction Machinery
Life & Health Insurance

Trading Companies
NSE 500 stocks - GICS sub-industries
Exhibit 28: Our top-down approach to identify high growth domestically-sensitive sub-industries in Indian equities
Exhibit 29: We identify 30 sub-industries, that are most correlated to domestic growth and offer high revenue/earnings growth over coming
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
years
30 High Growth Domestic Sub-industries

GICS Sector GICS Sub-Industry
Communication Services Internet/Media & Entertainment
Apparel Retail Auto Manufacturers
Automotive Parts & Equipment Broadline Retail
Consumer Discretionary Footwear Hotels, Resorts
Household Appliances Restaurants
Textiles Tires & Rubber
Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats
Financials Diversified Banks Diversified Fin. Svcs.
Health Care Health Care Facilities
Air Freight & Logistics Building Products
Construction & Engg. Construction Machinery
Industrials Electrical Components, Equipment Heavy Electrical Equipment
Industrial Machinery & Components Research & Consulting Svcs.
Trading Companies
Information Technology Application Software
Commodity Chemicals Construction Materials
Materials
Diversified Chemicals Specialty Chemicals
Real Estate Div. Real Estate Activities
1 June 2023 16
Introducing our GS India Largecap Compounders; Midcap Multibaggers

baskets
We think Indian equities could be a major source of potential alpha generation in the
years to come for investors, given the market’s strong historical track record and the
runway for strong growth ahead. At the sector level, we continue to favor domestic
cyclicals over global cyclicals in India and remain overweight banks and investment
cyclicals (industrials, cement). Additionally, we continue to like themes of Quality at
Reasonable Price (QARP), Capex recovery and Make-in-India.
For clients looking at taking medium-term exposure in India, across a broader set of
domestic sectors, to capture the ‘India growth story’, we have constructed two baskets:
1) Largecap Compounders; and 2) Midcap Multibaggers.
Largecap Compounders (GSINLCCP)

We screen for large cap stocks (with market capitalization > US$5bn) from key growth
sectors (30 high growth domestic sub-industries + sub-industries from 10 key growth
themes) that are likely to offer strong revenue/earnings growth over the next few years
(3-year – 2023-25 revenue or earnings CAGR > 15%), have high and improving ROEs
and are trading at reasonable valuations (fwd. PEG ratio < 3). The resultant basket of 25
stocks is tiered float-cap weighted (based on listed market cap), where the weight of
any given stock is capped at 6%, and offers a balanced composition across the three
broad domestic sectors of Financials (~30%), Manufacturing and investments (30%)
and Consumption (~40%).
Our ‘GS India Largecap Compounders’ basket (GSINLCCP) has a median market cap of
US$15bn and a minimum accessible liquidity of about US$185mn/day. In terms of
fundamental ratios, the basket trades at 22x 2024 P/E, and offers expected sales
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
growth of 17% and earning growth of 26% CAGR over the next 3 years
(2023-2025), suggesting an attractive growth/valuation profile.
Our backtest shows that the Largecap Compounders basket has outperformed the
largecap NIFTY index by 10pp over the past 1-year and 15pp since 2020.
1 June 2023 17
Exhibit 30: Our GS India Largecap Compounders basket has Exhibit 31: Our GS India Largecap Compounders basket is evenly
outperformed the Largecap NIFTY index by 10pp over the past balanced between the three broad domestic sectors of Financials,
1-year and 15pp since 2020 Manufacturing and investments and Consumption
Price return index (INR, rebased to 100) GS India Large Cap Compounders Portfolio
167 Tiered-market cap weight
GS India Large Cap Compounders NIFTY
160
152
140
Manufacturing
& Investment, Financials,
120 31%
30%
100
80 Domestic
Consumption,
60 39%
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jan-20
Sep-20
Sep-21
Jul-22
Jan-23
Mar-20
May-20
May-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Nov-21
May-22
Nov-22
May-23
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 32: Our 25 stocks GS India Largecap Compounders basket (GSINLCCP) trades at 22x 2024 P/E, and offers expected sales growth of
17% and earning growth of 26% CAGR over the next 3 years, suggesting an attractive growth/valuation profile
Key Growth Sectors Either Earnings or
>$5bn >15% or, >0 pp <0 or, ≤3x Sorted
(30 high-growth domestic subindustries + Sales grwth >15%
subindustries from 10 key growth themes) Size and Liquidity 2023/25 Growth Returns Valuations Weights
2023/25
Listed PEG ratio
Quoted 6M Earnings Sales ROE NTM PE Basket
Market 2022 CY2024 (NTM PE/
BBG Ticker Company Name GICS Sub-Industry Price ADVT CAGR CAGR change 10-yr Weight
Cap ROE P/E STM
(INR) (US$mn) (%) (%) (pp, z-score (Tiered)
(US$bn) EPSg)
annual)
Large Cap Compounders

HDFCB IS HDFC Bank Ltd Diversified Banks 1,616 109 218 21% 21% 17% +0.0% 15x -1.0 1x 6.0%
ICICIBC IS ICICI Bank Ltd Diversified Banks 951 80 181 16% 16% 17% +0.1% 16x +0.5 1x 6.0%
SBIN IS State Bank of India Diversified Banks 586 63 113 16% 13% 15% +0.2% 8x -0.9 1x 6.0%
BHARTI IS Bharti Airtel Ltd Wireless Telecommunication Services 818 55 48 64% 14% 10% +4.6% 24x -0.2 1x 6.0%
BAF IS Bajaj Finance Ltd Consumer Finance 6,903 51 83 25% 24% 22% +0.5% 25x +0.0 1x 6.0%
KMB IS Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd Diversified Banks 1,945 47 80 15% 18% 13% +0.1% 28x -0.3 2x 5.0%
LT IS Larsen & Toubro Ltd Construction & Engineering 2,218 38 59 22% 14% 13% +1.3% 20x +0.4 1x 5.0%
MSIL IS Maruti Suzuki India Ltd Automobile Manufacturers 9,397 34 50 32% 17% 12% +2.5% 23x +0.1 1x 5.0%
TTAN IS Titan Co Ltd Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods 2,742 29 30 21% 19% 30% -0.9% 55x +0.6 3x 5.0%
UTCEM IS UltraTech Cement Ltd Construction Materials 7,724 27 31 22% 11% 11% +1.3% 26x +0.4 2x 5.0%
MM IS Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd Automobile Manufacturers 1,282 19 35 21% 16% 16% +1.0% 17x -0.3 1x 4.0%
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
ADSEZ IS Adani Ports & SEZ Marine Ports & Services 727 19 96 21% 18% 16% +0.8% 17x +0.1 1x 4.0%
SIEM IS Siemens Ltd Industrial Conglomerates 3,520 15 18 28% 18% 12% +1.9% 54x +0.9 3x 4.0%
VBL IS Varun Beverages Ltd Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages 1,701 13 32 26% 17% 32% -1.1% 45x +1.9 2x 4.0%
EIM IS Eicher Motors Ltd Motorcycle Manufacturers 3,691 12 25 25% 17% 19% +1.4% 25x -0.2 2x 4.0%
BHE IS Bharat Electronics Ltd Aerospace & Defense 111 10 18 17% 15% 22% +1.1% 22x +1.2 2x 3.0%
APHS IS Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd Health Care Facilities 4,610 8 24 34% 16% 15% +2.5% 43x +0.2 2x 3.0%
TVSL IS TVS Motor Co Ltd Motorcycle Manufacturers 1,292 7 21 30% 16% 25% +1.3% 27x +0.6 1x 3.0%
BOS IS Bosch Ltd Automotive Parts & Equipment 18,941 7 6 18% 13% 14% +1.1% 27x -0.4 3x 3.0%
ZOMATO IS Zomato Ltd Restaurants 67 7 51 36% 36% (8%) +3.8% NM NM NM 3.0%
MOTHERSO IS Samvardhana Motherson Automotive Parts & Equipment 81 7 16 61% 12% 7% +3.6% 17x -0.7 1x 2.0%
PI IS PI Industries Ltd Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals 3,484 6 14 20% 19% 18% +0.4% 31x +0.6 2x 2.0%
POLYCAB IS Polycab India Ltd Electrical Components & Equipment 3,410 6 13 18% 14% 19% +0.3% 32x +1.4 2x 2.0%
PAG IS Page Industries Ltd Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods 37,456 5 11 21% 16% 53% -0.5% 52x +0.3 3x 2.0%
PAYTM IS One 97 Communications Ltd Transaction & Payment Processing Services 706 5 46 32% 31% (15%) +6.5% NM NM NM 2.0%
Median 15 22% 16% 16% +1.1% 25x +0.2 2x
Aggregate (Weighted Average) US$185* 26% 17% 16% +1.2% 22x

Note (1): Based on NSE500 constituents as of Mar 31, 2023
Note (2) *denotes the minimum accessible liquidity of the basket at 100% ADV (US$mn).
Note (3) 2023/25 (3-year) Growth and Return CAGR are based on consensus estimates; For companies with no 2025 estimates, 2-year CAGR ratios are shown
Note (4): Growth, Returns and Valuations forecasts are based on I/B/E/S and FactSet estimates. Pricing as of May 26, 2023.
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1 June 2023 18
Midcap Multibaggers (GSINMCMB)

Leveraging the insights from the historical multibagger study, we also screen for Midcap
stocks (market capitalization between US$1-5bn) from key growth sectors (30 high
growth domestic sub-industries + sub-industries from 10 key growth themes), that
satisfy at least 4 out of the 6 multibagger criteria laid out in the previous sections.
The resultant basket of 35 stocks is tiered float-cap weighted (based on listed market
cap), where the maximum weight of any given stock is capped at 7%. About 80% of
the sector weights are concentrated in consumer discretionary, materials and industrial
sectors.
Our ‘GS India Midcap Multibaggers’ basket (GSINMCMB) has a median market cap of
US$3bn and a minimum accessible liquidity of over US$60mn/day.
In terms of fundamental ratios, the basket generates 18% ROE and offers expected
sales growth of 20% and earning growth of 38% CAGR over the next 3 years. While the
basket trades at expensive valuation of 32x 2024 P/E, median fwd. PEG ratio appears
reasonable at 2x.
Our backtest shows that the midcap multibaggers basket has outperformed the
NIFTY/BSE 200 index by 18pp/15pp since 2020.
Exhibit 33: Our GS India Midcap multibaggers basket has Exhibit 34: Our GS India Midcap multibaggers basket weights are
outperformed the NIFTY/BSE 200 index by 18pp/15pp since 2020 concentrated in consumer discretionary, materials and industrial
sectors
Price return index (INR, rebased to 100) GS India Midcap Multibaggers Portfolio
200 Tiered-market cap weight
GS India Midcap Multibaggers NIFTY BSE 200
180 170 Health Care,
Real Estate, 3%
160 156
6%
Financials, 6%
140 152
Information
120 Technology,
8% Consumer
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
100 Discretionary,
39%
80 Industrials,
17%
60
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Mar-21
Jul-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
May-21
Mar-23
May-23
Nov-20
Jan-21
Nov-22
Nov-21
Jan-23
Jan-20
Jan-22
Sep-20
Sep-22
Sep-21
Materials, 21%
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1 June 2023 19
Exhibit 35: Our 35 stocks GS India Midcap multibaggers basket (GSINMCMB) generates 18% ROE and offers expected sales growth of 20%
and earning growth of 38% CAGR over the next 3 years
Domestic Sectors >$1bn, Either Earnings or Sales
>$1mn >15% or, >0pp <10x or, <=3x >50% Atleast 4 Sorted
(30 high-growth domestic subindustries + < $5bn grwth >20%
subindustries from 10 key growth themes) Size and Liquidity 2023/25 Growth 2023/25 Returns Valuations Ownership Weights
2023/25 Total #
Listed PEG ratio Promoter /
Quoted Earnings Sales CY 2022 ROE Criteria Basket
Market 6M ADVT NTM P/E (NTM PE/ Insider
BBG Ticker Company Name GICS Sub-Industry Price CAGR CAGR ROE change Met Weight
Cap (US$mn) (X) STM Ownership
(INR) (%) (%) (%) (pp, (Tiered)
(US$mn) EPSg) (%)
annual)
Midcap Multibaggers
CCRI IS Container Corp of India Rail Transportation 672 5.0 11 23% 17% 11% 2% 26 1x 55% 4 7.0%
ABCAP IS Aditya Birla Capital Diversified Financial Services 165 4.8 8 26% 17% 12% 2% 15 1x 71% 5 6.0%
FLUOROCH IS Gujarat Fluorochemicals Specialty Chemicals 3,300 4.4 7 20% 19% 26% (1%) 24 1x 64% 4 6.0%
NYKAA IS FSN E-Commerce Ventures E-Commerce / retail 126 4.4 21 188% 32% 2% 8% 219 2x 52% 4 6.0%
BHFC IS Bharat Forge Automotive Parts & Equipment 768 4.3 12 43% 14% 12% 3% 28 1x 45% 4 5.0%
HWA IS Honeywell Automation Electronic Equipment & Instruments 39,994 4.3 3 24% 14% 14% 1% 57 3x 75% 4 5.0%
SOIL IS Solar Industries India Commodity Chemicals 3,798 4.2 2 24% 16% 31% (1%) 40 2x 73% 5 4.0%
OBER IS Oberoi Realty Real Estate Development 933 4.1 6 19% 21% 14% 0% 18 1x 68% 4 4.0%
JUBI IS Jubilant Foodworks Restaurants 484 3.9 14 24% 17% 21% 1% 52 2x 42% 4 4.0%
SONACOMS IS Sona Blw Precision Forgings Automotive Parts & Equipment 541 3.8 16 41% 32% 19% 3% 44 1x 33% 4 4.0%
UNOMINDA IS UNO Minda Automotive Parts & Equipment 546 3.8 3 33% 18% 17% 2% 33 2x 70% 5 4.0%
MANYAVAR IS Vedant Fashions Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods 1,274 3.7 2 23% 22% 30% 1% 57 3x 85% 5 3.0%
SYNG IS Syngene International Life Sciences Tools & Services 718 3.5 7 25% 19% 14% 1% 45 2x 55% 4 3.0%
KPITTECH IS KPIT Technologies Systems Software 1,007 3.3 20 33% 27% 25% 2% 48 2x 39% 4 3.0%
3M IS 3M India Industrial Conglomerates 24,145 3.3 1 24% 17% 20% 5% 44 2x 75% 5 2.0%
PHNX IS Phoenix Mills Diversified Real Estate Activities 1,480 3.2 5 28% 29% 10% 1% 27 1x 47% 4 2.0%
METROBRA IS Metro Brands Apparel Retail 950 3.1 2 23% 21% 24% 2% 51 3x 74% 5 2.0%
MSUMI IS Motherson Sumi Wiring Automotive Parts & Equipment 56 3.0 3 29% 16% 39% 5% 31 2x 62% 5 2.0%
TMKN IS Timken India Industrial Machinery & Supplies 3,140 2.9 3 24% 19% 22% 0% 44 2x 68% 5 2.0%
JKCE IS JK Cement Construction Materials 3,004 2.8 4 35% 15% 12% 3% 26 1x 46% 4 2.0%
NFIL IS Navin Fluorine International Specialty Chemicals 4,625 2.8 8 35% 33% 17% 3% 48 2x 29% 4 2.0%
DEVYANI IS Devyani International Restaurants 187 2.7 4 26% 26% 35% (3%) 61 2x 63% 5 2.0%
SF IS Sundram Fasteners Automotive Parts & Equipment 1,068 2.7 2 34% 19% 18% 3% 29 1x 49% 4 2.0%
KNPL IS Kansai Nerolac Paints Commodity Chemicals 411 2.7 1 28% 12% 11% 2% 30 2x 75% 5 2.0%
CU IS Carborundum Universal Commodity Chemicals 1,162 2.7 2 26% 15% 15% 2% 40 2x 42% 4 2.0%
BATA IS Bata India Footwear 1,582 2.5 6 38% 16% 16% 5% 43 2x 50% 5 2.0%
KJC IS Kajaria Ceramics Building Products 1,252 2.4 2 27% 15% 17% 3% 33 2x 47% 4 2.0%
SUMICHEM IS Sumitomo Chemical India Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals 398 2.4 2 21% 16% 24% (0%) 31 2x 75% 5 2.0%
BDL IS Bharat Dynamics Aerospace & Defense 1,050 2.3 10 35% 28% 16% 3% 25 1x 75% 5 2.0%
VO IS Vinati Organics Specialty Chemicals 1,776 2.2 1 29% 27% 22% 1% 33 1x 74% 5 1.0%
RJEX IS Rajesh Exports Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods 572 2.0 4 40% 11% 11% 3% 7 0x 54% 6 1.0%
BDE IS Blue Dart Express Air Freight & Logistics 6,084 1.7 2 19% 14% 40% (2%) 30 1x 75% 4 1.0%
TRIV IS Triveni Turbine Heavy Electrical Equipment 400 1.5 6 31% 25% 20% 3% 48 2x 56% 5 1.0%
WLDL IS Westlife Foodworld Restaurants 767 1.4 2 49% 20% 18% 4% 73 2x 56% 5 1.0%
VIP IS VIP Industries Apparel Accessories & Luxury Goods 615 1.1 2 35% 19% 27% 2% 33 1x 51% 5 1.0%
Median 3.0 28% 19% 18% 2% 33x 2x 56% 5
Aggregate (Weighted Average) US$60* 38% 20% 18% 2% 32x 59%
Note (1): Based on NSE500 constituents as of Mar 31, 2023
Note (2) *denotes the minimum accessible liquidity of the basket at 100% ADV (US$mn).
Note (3) 2023/25 (3-year) Growth and Return CAGR are based on consensus estimates; For companies with no 2025 estimates, 2-year CAGR ratios are shown
Note (4): Growth, Returns and Valuations forecasts are based on I/B/E/S and FactSet estimates. Pricing as of May 26, 2023.
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1 June 2023 20
Appendix I: List of historical multibaggers in India

Exhibit 36: 269 names in the existing NSE500 universe have returned more than 10x within 5-year rolling periods over the past 20 years (Part
1)
Multibaggers in NSE500 universe: stocks that delivered over 10x total returns over a 5yr rolling period since 2000 (Part 1)
Start End Total Return Start Total Return

BBG Ticker Name Sector BBG Ticker Name Sector End Date
Date Date within 5Y (X) Date within 5Y (X)
WLDL IS Westlife Foodworld Durables, Apparel & Retail Sep-08 Sep-13 9535x BHARTI IS Bharti Airtel Telecom Dec-02 Oct-07 44x
MMTC IS MMTC Cap Goods Oct-02 Oct-07 608x ATGL IS Adani Total Gas Utilities Mar-20 Aug-22 43x
PRJ IS Praj Industries Cap Goods Mar-02 Feb-07 567x TTKPT IS TTK Prestige Durables, Apparel & Retail Mar-09 Sep-12 43x
JM IS JM Financial Div. Financials Feb-03 Jan-08 544x SRCM IS Shree Cement Cement/Chem & other Mat. Sep-01 Apr-06 43x
PATANJAL IS Patanjali Foods Staples Nov-19 Oct-22 427x BLSTR IS Blue Star Cap Goods Jan-03 Dec-07 42x
PHNX IS Phoenix Mills/The Real Estate Jun-02 May-07 350x PCBL IS PCBL /India Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jul-13 Apr-18 42x
CGCL IS Capri Global Capital Div. Financials Oct-06 Oct-10 322x PRIVISCL IS Privi Speciality Chemical Cement/Chem & other Mat. Oct-09 Sep-14 41x
KEII IS KEI Industries Cap Goods Oct-03 Jan-07 261x SAIL IS Steel Authority of India Metals & Mining Nov-02 Oct-07 41x
DELTA IS Delta Corp Durables, Apparel & Retail Apr-04 Dec-07 241x SIEM IS Siemens Cap Goods Nov-02 Oct-07 39x
BIL IS Balkrishna Industries Autos Mar-01 Jan-06 239x IFBI IS IFB Industries Durables, Apparel & Retail Apr-03 Dec-07 39x
LPC IS Lupin Healthcare Jun-01 Apr-06 234x GESCO IS Great Eastern Shipping Co Energy Jan-03 Dec-07 39x
GDSP IS Godrej Industries Cap Goods Mar-03 Dec-07 209x AACL IS Alkyl Amines Chemicals Cement/Chem & other Mat. Dec-16 Jul-21 38x
NJCC IS NCC/India Cap Goods Jul-01 Apr-06 182x LT IS Larsen & Toubro Cap Goods Mar-03 Oct-07 37x
RMT IS Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Metals & Mining Nov-02 Oct-07 170x BHEL IS Bharat Heavy Electricals Cap Goods Nov-02 Oct-07 37x
SYML IS Symphony Durables, Apparel & Retail Jun-06 Apr-11 169x RINDL IS Rain Industries Cement/Chem & other Mat. Mar-03 Dec-07 37x
KPP IS Kalpataru Power Transmiss Cap Goods Feb-02 Jan-07 162x HEG IS HEG Cap Goods Feb-16 Jul-18 37x
CLPL IS Caplin Point Laboratories Healthcare Apr-10 Mar-15 154x CANF IS Can Fin Homes Div. Financials Aug-12 Jun-17 37x
AVNT IS Avanti Feeds Staples Mar-13 Oct-17 153x CRS IS Cera Sanitaryware Cap Goods Apr-09 Mar-14 36x
MGFL IS Manappuram Finance Div. Financials Dec-05 Oct-10 145x BSOFT IS Birlasoft Software & Services Dec-01 Nov-06 35x
VEDL IS Vedanta Metals & Mining Mar-03 Dec-07 139x OLECTRA IS Olectra Greentech Cap Goods Apr-14 Mar-19 35x
SRIN IS Sunteck Realty Real Estate May-06 Oct-10 137x TTAN IS Titan Co Durables, Apparel & Retail Mar-03 Oct-07 35x
BORORENE IS Borosil Renewables Tech HW & Semis Mar-03 Feb-08 131x CHOLAHLD IS Cholamandalam Financial H Div. Financials Apr-01 Mar-06 35x
SLPA IS Shilpa Medicare Healthcare Jan-02 Apr-06 129x ALOK IS Alok Industries Durables, Apparel & Retail Oct-19 Jun-20 35x
SWAN IS Swan Energy Durables, Apparel & Retail Apr-04 Oct-07 125x ABB IS ABB India Cap Goods Nov-02 Oct-07 34x
BEML IS BEML Cap Goods Jul-01 Apr-06 116x GTFL IS Garware Technical Fibres Durables, Apparel & Retail Sep-13 Aug-18 34x
TTLS IS Tata Teleservices Maharas Telecom Mar-20 Dec-21 115x KNRC IS KNR Constructions Cap Goods Sep-13 Dec-17 34x
DHANI IS Dhani Services Div. Financials Sep-13 Aug-18 112x KRB IS KRBL Staples Jul-13 Oct-17 34x
JSP IS Jindal Steel & Power Metals & Mining Mar-03 Dec-07 104x DIVI IS Divi's Laboratories Healthcare Apr-03 Dec-07 33x
ADE IS Adani Enterprises Cap Goods Apr-03 Dec-07 98x BCORP IS Birla Corp Cement/Chem & other Mat. Mar-03 Nov-06 32x
MLIFE IS Mahindra Lifespace Develo Real Estate Mar-03 Nov-06 93x BHE IS Bharat Electronics Cap Goods Apr-01 Mar-06 32x
ADANIGR IS Adani Green Energy Utilities Feb-19 Apr-22 87x EIM IS Eicher Motors Autos May-09 Apr-14 32x
BCG IS Brightcom Group Internet/Media Dec-18 Jan-22 85x MAST IS Mastek Software & Services Nov-16 Sep-21 31x
RJEX IS Rajesh Exports Durables, Apparel & Retail Apr-03 Jan-08 84x DALBHARA IS Dalmia Bharat Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jul-13 Dec-17 31x
BJE IS Bajaj Electricals Durables, Apparel & Retail Apr-03 Dec-07 83x BAF IS Bajaj Finance Div. Financials Mar-01 Feb-06 31x
JUBLPHAR IS Jubilant Pharmova Healthcare Sep-01 Apr-06 80x AXSB IS Axis Bank Banks Mar-03 Jan-08 31x
AJP IS Ajanta Pharma Healthcare Dec-09 Nov-14 77x SRF IS SRF Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jul-01 Mar-06 31x
BRSN IS Bharat Rasayan Cement/Chem & other Mat. Sep-13 Aug-18 75x CU IS Carborundum Universal Cement/Chem & other Mat. Mar-01 Jan-06 31x
CGPOWER IS CG Power & Industrial Sol Cap Goods Nov-02 Oct-07 72x VO IS Vinati Organics Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jul-06 Oct-10 30x
HZ IS Hindustan Zinc Metals & Mining Mar-03 Apr-06 69x DCMS IS DCM Shriram Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jan-02 Apr-06 30x
UNSP IS United Spirits Staples Mar-03 Nov-07 66x BRCM IS Balrampur Chini Mills Staples Oct-01 Apr-06 30x
ASTRA IS Astral Cap Goods Apr-09 Mar-14 66x MOTHERSO IS Samvardhana Motherson Int Autos Oct-02 Sep-07 29x
JMNA IS Jamna Auto Industries Cap Goods Feb-02 Sep-10 64x MM IS Mahindra & Mahindra Autos Oct-01 Sep-06 29x
HLEGLAS IS Hle Glascoat Cap Goods Oct-16 Sep-21 64x CENT IS Century Textiles & Indust Cement/Chem & other Mat. Mar-03 Dec-07 29x
TANLA IS Tanla Platforms Software & Services Nov-18 Dec-21 64x DN IS Deepak Nitrite Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jan-17 Dec-21 28x
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
LMW IS Lakshmi Machine Works Cap Goods Jan-02 Dec-06 63x EID IS EID Parry India Cement/Chem & other Mat. Oct-01 Apr-06 28x
CCLP IS CCL Products India Staples Mar-02 Jan-06 62x VIP IS VIP Industries Durables, Apparel & Retail Nov-08 Sep-11 28x
VGM IS Vaibhav Global Durables, Apparel & Retail Mar-09 Jan-14 60x GALK IS Gujarat Alkalies & Chemic Cement/Chem & other Mat. Sep-01 Apr-06 28x
GNP IS Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Healthcare May-03 Apr-08 60x NFIL IS Navin Fluorine Internatio Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jun-13 Dec-17 28x
AGIS IS Aegis Logistics Energy Mar-03 Dec-07 59x GRAN IS Granules India Healthcare Dec-11 Nov-15 27x
IHFL IS Indiabulls Housing Financ Div. Financials Oct-04 Dec-07 58x SI IS Supreme Industries Cement/Chem & other Mat. Apr-09 Mar-14 27x
JBMA IS JBM Auto Autos Aug-13 Sep-17 58x TVSL IS TVS Motor Co Autos Aug-13 Dec-17 26x
UPLL IS UPL Cement/Chem & other Mat. Mar-02 Nov-06 57x SOTL IS Sterlite Technologies Tech HW & Semis Sep-13 Aug-18 26x
VOLT IS Voltas Cap Goods Apr-03 Dec-07 57x BLA IS Balaji Amines Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jul-13 Apr-18 26x
HAVL IS Havells India Cap Goods Apr-03 Dec-07 55x GRIL IS Graphite India Cap Goods Mar-01 Nov-05 26x
RLXF IS Relaxo Footwears Durables, Apparel & Retail Apr-09 Mar-14 55x SEL IS Suprajit Engineering Autos Apr-03 Apr-06 26x
UBBL IS United Breweries Staples Mar-03 Sep-07 54x AMRJ IS Amara Raja Batteries Cap Goods Mar-03 Jan-08 25x
SHFL IS Shriram Finance Div. Financials Oct-00 Sep-05 52x RDCK IS Radico Khaitan Staples Aug-03 Sep-07 25x
UNOMINDA IS UNO Minda Autos Sep-13 Aug-18 52x WPL IS Wockhardt Healthcare Feb-09 Mar-13 25x
TMX IS Thermax Cap Goods Jul-01 Apr-06 51x GMM IS GMM Pfaudler Cap Goods Feb-16 Aug-20 25x
RATI IS RattanIndia Enterprises Durables, Apparel & Retail Oct-19 Jul-21 51x EXID IS Exide Industries Autos Mar-03 Jan-08 25x
WLSI IS Welspun India Durables, Apparel & Retail Dec-11 Jun-16 49x KPITTECH IS KPIT Technologies Software & Services Mar-20 Mar-23 24x
KMB IS Kotak Mahindra Bank Banks Nov-01 Oct-06 48x ECLX IS eClerx Services Cap Goods Mar-09 Feb-14 24x
BHFC IS Bharat Forge Autos Jul-01 Mar-06 48x POONAWAL IS Poonawalla Fincorp Div. Financials May-20 Oct-22 24x
WLCO IS Welspun Corp Metals & Mining Mar-03 Jan-08 47x ICEM IS India Cements/The Cement/Chem & other Mat. Mar-03 Dec-07 24x
PLM IS Poly Medicure Healthcare Mar-09 Feb-14 47x SCHI IS Sudarshan Chemical Indust Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jul-13 Apr-18 24x
PI IS PI Industries Cement/Chem & other Mat. Nov-09 Aug-14 47x GREENP IS Greenpanel Industries Cement/Chem & other Mat. May-20 Apr-22 24x
ADANIT IS Adani Transmission Utilities Sep-16 May-21 46x IIFL IS IIFL Finance Div. Financials Jun-05 Dec-07 23x
ZYWL IS Zydus Wellnes Staples Sep-03 Feb-06 46x SCHFL IS Schaeffler India Cap Goods Jun-01 Apr-06 23x
PPC IS Polyplex Corp Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jun-00 Dec-04 45x GSFC IS Gujarat State Fertilizers Cement/Chem & other Mat. Apr-03 Dec-07 23x
CESC IS CESC Utilities Mar-03 Dec-07 44x KNPL IS Kansai Nerolac Paints Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jun-01 Mar-06 23x
Note: Based on current NSE500 universe
Source: NSE, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1 June 2023 21
Exhibit 37: 269 names in the existing NSE500 universe have returned more than 10x within 5-year rolling periods over the past 20 years (Part
2)
Multibaggers in NSE500 universe: stocks that delivered over 10x total returns over a 5yr rolling period since 2000 (Part 2)
Start End Total Return Start Total Return

BBG Ticker Name Sector BBG Ticker Name Sector End Date
Date Date within 5Y (X) Date within 5Y (X)
BBTC IS Bombay Burmah Trading Co Staples Mar-03 Dec-07 23x HPCL IS Hindustan Petroleum Corp Energy Aug-13 Aug-17 15x
CEAT IS Ceat Autos Feb-13 Dec-17 23x RIL IS Reliance Industries Energy Apr-03 Dec-07 15x
GAEX IS Gujarat Ambuja Exports Staples Jan-04 Dec-07 23x TPWR IS Tata Power Co/The Utilities Jan-03 Dec-07 15x
HKCI IS Hikal Healthcare Sep-01 Sep-05 22x PNB IS Punjab National Bank Banks Jan-03 Nov-07 15x
KPR IS KPR Mill Durables, Apparel & Retail Jun-12 May-17 22x BJAUT IS Bajaj Auto Autos Nov-08 Oct-13 15x
MOFS IS Motilal Oswal Financial S Div. Financials Oct-13 Dec-17 22x BJHI IS Bajaj Holdings & Investme Div. Financials Sep-01 Apr-06 15x
ARTD IS Aarti Drugs Healthcare Dec-11 Jul-15 22x CIFC IS Cholamandalam Investment Div. Financials Feb-09 Feb-13 15x
BOI IS Bank of India Banks Sep-00 Jul-05 22x HMN IS Emami Staples May-02 Oct-06 15x
UFLX IS Uflex Cement/Chem & other Mat. Feb-02 Jan-07 22x TRID IS Trident/India Durables, Apparel & Retail Mar-13 Oct-17 15x
TEJASNET IS Tejas Networks Tech HW & Semis Mar-20 Oct-22 22x MRCO IS Marico Staples Jan-02 Dec-06 14x
CRISIL IS CRISIL Div. Financials Dec-01 Oct-06 21x DIXON IS Dixon Technologies India Durables, Apparel & Retail Nov-18 Dec-21 14x
ATLP IS Atul Cement/Chem & other Mat. Oct-09 Sep-14 21x UNBK IS Union Bank of India Banks Nov-02 Oct-07 14x
HWA IS Honeywell Automation Indi Tech HW & Semis Jul-01 Mar-06 21x FLUOROCH IS Gujarat Fluorochemicals Cement/Chem & other Mat. May-20 Sep-22 14x
PAG IS Page Industries Durables, Apparel & Retail Jun-10 May-15 21x BATA IS Bata India Durables, Apparel & Retail Feb-09 Nov-13 14x
NLC IS NLC India Utilities Oct-00 Sep-05 21x GRASIM IS Grasim Industries Cement/Chem & other Mat. Dec-02 Nov-07 14x
BOS IS Bosch Autos Jan-02 Oct-06 21x AL IS Ashok Leyland Cap Goods Aug-13 Apr-18 14x
ALPM IS Alembic Pharmaceuticals Healthcare Dec-11 Aug-15 21x BRGR IS Berger Paints India Cement/Chem & other Mat. Apr-03 Dec-07 14x
ARBP IS Aurobindo Pharma Healthcare Dec-11 Dec-15 21x TRCL IS Ramco Cements/The Cement/Chem & other Mat. Apr-03 Nov-07 14x
KJC IS Kajaria Ceramics Cap Goods Feb-02 Sep-06 21x DFPC IS Deepak Fertilisers & Petr Cement/Chem & other Mat. Mar-20 Oct-22 14x
SF IS Sundram Fasteners Autos Sep-13 Aug-18 21x FNXP IS Finolex Industries Cement/Chem & other Mat. May-12 Mar-17 13x
HTSMF IS Hatsun Agro Product Staples Mar-09 Feb-14 20x JDSL IS Jindal Stainless Metals & Mining Mar-20 Mar-23 13x
HCP IS Hindustan Copper Metals & Mining Apr-03 Dec-07 20x LIIL IS Linde India Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jun-01 Apr-06 13x
MRPL IS Mangalore Refinery & Petr Energy Jan-03 Dec-07 20x TIINDIA IS Tube Investments of India Autos May-18 Feb-23 13x
PRSMJ IS Prism Johnson Cement/Chem & other Mat. Mar-03 Dec-07 20x EDEL IS Edelweiss Financial Servi Div. Financials Nov-13 May-18 13x
VTEX IS Vardhman Textiles Durables, Apparel & Retail Oct-01 Apr-06 20x ZENT IS Zensar Technologies Software & Services Mar-09 Feb-14 13x
MAXF IS Max Financial Services Insurance Feb-02 Jan-07 20x LICHF IS LIC Housing Finance Div. Financials May-00 Apr-05 13x
NTCPH IS Natco Pharma Healthcare Mar-09 Feb-14 19x ONGC IS Oil & Natural Gas Corp Energy May-00 Sep-05 13x
ZCVCS IS ZF Commercial Vehicle Con Autos Feb-09 Dec-13 19x IH IS Indian Hotels Co Durables, Apparel & Retail Jan-02 Dec-06 13x
IOB IS Indian Overseas Bank Banks Dec-01 Oct-06 19x MRF IS MRF Autos Apr-09 Mar-14 13x
SSOF IS Sonata Software Software & Services Jul-13 May-18 19x PGHL IS Procter & Gamble Health Healthcare Mar-16 Jan-21 13x
MPHL IS Mphasis Software & Services Sep-01 Mar-06 19x WHIRL IS Whirlpool of India Durables, Apparel & Retail Jun-06 Oct-10 13x
VMART IS V-Mart Retail Durables, Apparel & Retail Jun-13 May-18 19x BJFIN IS Bajaj Finserv Div. Financials Aug-13 Jul-18 12x
JSTL IS JSW Steel Metals & Mining Mar-03 Dec-07 19x TCO IS Tata Coffee Staples Feb-09 Apr-13 12x
FB IS Federal Bank Banks Oct-01 Sep-06 19x RCF IS Rashtriya Chemicals & Fer Cement/Chem & other Mat. Sep-01 Apr-06 12x
GCPL IS Godrej Consumer Products Staples Nov-01 Sep-06 19x ICICIBC IS ICICI Bank Banks Apr-02 Jan-07 12x
SKF IS SKF India Cap Goods Sep-01 Apr-06 19x ITI IS ITI Tech HW & Semis Aug-13 Oct-17 12x
ESCORTS IS Escorts Kubota Cap Goods Mar-13 Feb-18 19x SHRS IS Shree Renuka Sugars Staples Mar-20 Sep-22 12x
NBCC IS NBCC India Cap Goods Jul-13 Nov-17 19x TTCH IS Tata Chemicals Cement/Chem & other Mat. Apr-01 Mar-06 12x
NOCIL IS NOCIL Cement/Chem & other Mat. Aug-13 Apr-18 19x FCT IS Fertilisers & Chemicals T Cement/Chem & other Mat. Feb-19 Dec-22 12x
FNXC IS Finolex Cables Cap Goods Apr-12 Mar-17 18x ENGR IS Engineers India Cap Goods Oct-01 Mar-06 12x
CYL IS Cyient Software & Services Mar-01 Jan-06 18x SUNP IS Sun Pharmaceutical Indust Healthcare May-03 Apr-08 12x
ASTR IS AstraZeneca Pharma India Healthcare Oct-01 Aug-06 18x LTIM IS LTIMindtree Software & Services Jan-17 Dec-21 12x
TELX IS Tata Elxsi Software & Services Sep-13 Aug-18 18x TCOM IS Tata Communications Telecom Mar-03 Dec-07 12x
KECI IS KEC International Cap Goods Aug-13 Feb-18 18x RHIM IS Rhi Magnesita India Cement/Chem & other Mat. Sep-13 Aug-18 12x
IIB IS IndusInd Bank Banks Feb-09 May-13 18x LAURUS IS Laurus Labs Healthcare Mar-20 Jun-21 11x
JKLC IS JK Lakshmi Cement Cement/Chem & other Mat. Feb-04 Dec-07 18x PVRL IS PVR Internet/Media Sep-11 Aug-16 11x
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
APAT IS APL Apollo Tubes Metals & Mining Aug-13 Apr-18 17x JKCE IS JK Cement Cement/Chem & other Mat. Feb-09 Dec-12 11x
CUBK IS City Union Bank Banks Feb-03 Jan-08 17x SHOP IS Shoppers Stop Durables, Apparel & Retail Feb-09 Dec-12 11x
CCRI IS Container Corp Of India Transport Dec-01 Oct-06 17x INDR IS Indoco Remedies Healthcare Aug-09 Jul-14 11x
HCLT IS HCL Technologies Software & Services Mar-09 Feb-14 17x EPLL IS EPL Cement/Chem & other Mat. Dec-11 Nov-16 11x
IPCA IS Ipca Laboratories Healthcare Jan-02 Dec-06 17x KKC IS Cummins India Cap Goods Dec-02 Sep-07 11x
TRPC IS Transport Corp of India Transport Sep-13 Aug-18 17x IDBI IS IDBI Bank Banks Mar-03 Dec-07 11x
TRENT IS Trent Durables, Apparel & Retail Jun-01 Jan-06 17x DABUR IS Dabur India Staples Mar-03 Dec-07 11x
GWN IS Grindwell Norton Cap Goods Jul-01 Apr-06 17x TRP IS Torrent Pharmaceuticals Healthcare Mar-01 Jan-06 11x
INDA IS Intellect Design Arena Software & Services Mar-20 Mar-22 17x OFSS IS Oracle Financial Services Software & Services Jul-02 Jun-07 11x
TICL IS Tata Investment Corp Div. Financials Apr-03 Dec-07 17x BRIT IS Britannia Industries Staples Mar-13 Feb-18 11x
CRIN IS Coromandel International Cement/Chem & other Mat. Oct-05 Sep-10 16x YES IS Yes Bank Banks Mar-09 Jan-13 11x
CPBI IS Century Plyboards India Cement/Chem & other Mat. Feb-14 Dec-17 16x SUF IS Sundaram Finance Div. Financials Nov-09 Oct-14 11x
TTMT IS Tata Motors Autos Jun-01 Mar-06 16x JSW IS JSW Energy Utilities May-20 Sep-21 10x
TATA IS Tata Steel Metals & Mining Sep-01 Apr-06 16x PIDI IS Pidilite Industries Cement/Chem & other Mat. Mar-03 Oct-07 10x
RALI IS Rallis India Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jun-01 Dec-05 16x BSE IS BSE Div. Financials Mar-20 Mar-22 10x
AISG IS Asahi India Glass Autos Jul-01 Feb-06 16x TCS IS Tata Consultancy Services Software & Services Mar-09 Feb-14 10x
VGRD IS V-Guard Industries Cap Goods Jan-10 Nov-14 15x PSYS IS Persistent Systems Software & Services Apr-20 Dec-21 10x
BDE IS Blue Dart Express Transport Mar-03 Dec-07 15x CHMB IS Chambal Fertilisers and C Cement/Chem & other Mat. Jan-03 Dec-07 10x
COFORGE IS Coforge Software & Services Jan-17 Dec-21 15x
Note: Based on current NSE500 universe
Source: NSE, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
1 June 2023 22
Exhibit 38: Distribution of multi-baggers by years across 10 different markets

Distribution of multi-baggers (>10x total returns over a 5 year rolling period) by starting year across 10 major markets globally
as % total
Total
Starting Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 stocks in
multibaggers
index
Japan TOPIX 5 26 60 33 - - - - 21 30 36 17 45 18 8 3 25 4 5 - 4 - - - 340 16%
Europe SXXP 2 3 15 24 2 - 1 - 4 23 1 5 4 3 - 1 11 1 2 1 1 - - - 104 17%
DM
US SPX 8 5 14 9 - 1 1 - 3 18 1 - 2 1 1 3 5 3 - 2 3 - - - 80 16%
Australia ASX 200 2 4 2 9 2 2 - - 3 13 - 2 1 4 4 5 7 3 3 - 3 - - - 69 35%
Korea KOSPI 24 25 20 80 39 4 3 - 26 5 5 17 4 8 5 1 3 1 2 1 7 - - - 280 34%
India NSE 500 6 46 31 55 5 3 5 - 3 30 3 7 4 35 2 - 7 3 4 5 15 - - - 269 54%
Taiwan TWSE 2 19 11 22 7 10 9 - 15 24 - 6 4 5 1 3 9 5 3 4 11 - - - 170 18%
EM
China MSCI China 6 - 11 6 4 7 3 - 10 5 - - 2 3 - 1 24 17 23 5 3 - 1 - 131 18%

South Africa JALSH 4 3 8 6 2 - - - 1 3 1 3 - 1 - 2 1 1 2 - 1 - - - 39 29%
Brazil IBOV - 2 8 6 - 2 - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 6 1 - - - - - - 28 32%
Total 59 133 180 250 61 29 22 - 86 152 47 57 67 78 21 20 98 39 44 18 48 - 1 - 1,510 23%
% Total 4% 9% 12% 17% 4% 2% 1% 0% 6% 10% 3% 4% 4% 5% 1% 1% 6% 3% 3% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Distribution of multi-baggers (>10x total returns over a 5 year rolling period) by ending year across 10 major markets globally
as % total
Total
Ending Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 stocks in
multibaggers
index
Japan TOPIX - - - 5 10 31 50 28 - - 2 - 2 43 26 32 10 44 18 5 7 21 3 3 340 16%
Europe SXXP - - - - - 3 9 31 3 1 - 1 - 10 16 2 5 4 3 - 1 13 1 1 104 17%
DM
US SPX - - - 1 - 7 6 19 4 - - 1 - 7 14 1 - 2 1 1 4 9 2 1 80 16%
Australia ASX 200 - - - - 1 2 4 8 4 1 1 3 4 5 4 1 2 3 4 4 6 10 2 - 69 35%
Korea KOSPI - 3 1 1 2 30 21 103 20 8 4 11 8 10 5 17 8 3 8 1 2 7 1 6 280 34%

India NSE 500 - - - - 1 8 59 65 10 - 7 2 3 9 21 6 3 18 23 1 2 15 13 3 269 54%
Taiwan TWSE - - - 3 5 2 11 36 12 5 6 6 2 13 15 4 3 5 5 1 6 25 3 2 170 18%
EM
China MSCI China - 1 - 1 2 2 - 22 1 5 5 3 - 8 2 1 - 2 3 - 7 59 5 2 131 18%

South Africa JALSH - - - - - 5 2 12 4 - - - 1 - 3 3 2 - - - 3 - 4 - 39 29%
Brazil IBOV - - - - 1 - 2 10 3 - 2 - - 1 - - - 1 - 1 4 3 - - 28 32%
Total - 4 1 11 22 90 164 334 61 20 27 27 20 106 106 67 33 82 65 14 42 162 34 18 1,510 23%
% Total 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 6% 11% 22% 4% 1% 2% 2% 1% 7% 7% 4% 2% 5% 4% 1% 3% 11% 2% 1% 100%
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
1 June 2023 23
Appendix II: Related industry reports on specific medium-term growth

themes
Exhibit 39: Recent related sector/industry reports on specific medium-term growth themes in India
Key Growth Areas in India
S.no Key Themes Sub-themes/Key sectors Related Research Publication Date
Make-in-India / Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme
Make in India: Kick-starting growth engines with PLIs 3-Jan-23

Solar PV Modules; ACC Batteries / Energy storage (ESS);
1 Energy Transition
Electric vehicles adoption Make in India: Exploring the 14 Production Linked Incentive
3-Jan-23
Schemes
Large scale Electronics, IT hardware, Telecom & Make in India: Stock implications from PLI schemes 3-Jan-23
Import substitution /
2 Networking Products, White Goods (ACs and LEDs), Drug
Supply chain security India Electric Cars: Charging up for India's Electric Car
Intermediaries & API, Medical Devices, Speciality Steel 6-Oct-22
journey
3 Export Industries Food Processing, Pharma, Textile
Traditional growth areas

4 Manufacturing / Capex recovery Infrastructure, EMS, Cement, Logistics India Construction: Cement; Improved sector Outlook
2-Mar-23
Quick Service Restaurants (QSR); Upper income
5 Domestic Consumption India Quick Service Restaurants: : Rise of the Challengers
consumption; HPC 1-May-23
Digitalization of consumption and services

India Internet: TechNet Conference 2023: Takeaways from
meetings with Swiggy and Bigbasket 29-May-23
6 Internet E-commerce; Food Delivery; Online travel Zomato: Improving growth and profit outlook 20-May-23
MakeMyTrip Ltd. (MMYT): Robust demand and margin
outlook 26-May-23
One 97 Communications: 4QFY23 in line: 2nd consecutive
quarter of profitability 7-May-23
7 Formalization of credit Commercial Retail; Digital payments / Lending (Fin tech) India Banks: Consumer Credit Behavior: # I; 30-Sep-22
Consumer Credit Behavior: #2; 16-Feb-23
Consumer Credit Behavior: #3 17-May-23
8 Formalization of workforce Staffing
Other themes
9 Financialization of household savings Brokers, Insurance/Mutual funds
Complex/Specialty drugs (Biosimilar; Generic injectables); Biocon: Biosimilar and Syngene revenues inflecting 24-May-23
10 Healthcare Healthcare services (Tertiary care in Hospitals); Branded
India Healthcare Tour: Hospitals moving from strength to
generic markets in EM
strength 8-Mar-23
dac614a904c142979db0196573a6bece
1 June 2023 24
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GS - India Multibaggers

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GS - India Multibaggers

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Asia-Paciﬁc Portfolio Strategy

Investing in India’s medium-term growth story: Identifying

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Investing in India’s medium-term growth story

Introducing GS India Largecap Compounders, Midcap Multibaggers baskets

India offers compelling long-term beta and outsized alpha opportunities

2026 (see Discovering India’s potential).

Moreover, Indian markets have offered outsized alpha opportunities. In addition to a

India vs. EM: Past 20-year indexed performance 15%

20-yr CAGR of BSE 200 and MSCI EM stocks

20% Note: Based on current index

Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

India has delivered the highest proportion of multibaggers

% Multibaggers across markets since 2000s

Common traits of multibaggers

1) Growth – High realized sales and proﬁt growth

managed to generate at least 20% revenue growth and at least 30%

2) Capital allocation – High return ratios

Return on Equity (ROE) of Multibaggers Cash ROIC of Multibaggers

Decrease 3% 23% Decrease 9% 33%

Increase 43% 32% Increase 36% 21%

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

3) Size – Small/mid-cap bias

Multibagger starting market capitalisation Size of multibagger

year is based on market Smallcap

4) Sector tilt – Domestic cyclicals concentration

Multibagger Sector Categories 20% Multibagger Sectors

Software & Services

Metals & Mining

Durables, Apparel &

Tech HW & Semis

Historical occurrence of 'multibaggers' across sectors (by starting year)

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

5) Inexpensive starting valuations

Starting Valuations of Multibaggers

40% 37% 36%

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

# multibaggers MSCI India 12m fPE vs. # multibaggers MXIN fPE

30 # Multibagger stocks MSCI India 12m fPE (RHS) 25X

Starting date of multibaggers

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

6) High promoter holding

Ownership structure of Ownership structure at the START of Multibagger period

% at start of the mulibagger Corporate)

Summary of our 6-factor multibagger framework

Exhibit 20: The 6 traits have collectively explained the occurrence of

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Stocks meeting multibagger criteria

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Multibaggers vs. NSE500 stocks

Capital allocation / Improving 60

High Realised Growth High Promoter holding

Low Starting Valuation

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, NSE, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

n Lastly, looking at the annual frequency of occurrence of drawdowns, we note that

Maximum drawdown in total return of multibaggers

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Median drawdown across stocks (%)

# multibaggers seeing drawdown

Investing in India’s medium-term growth story

We are constructive on Indian equities and have been recommending medium-term

in greater detail (see Appendix II).

earnings growth correlation (for ﬁnancials) with GDP/economic growth, with