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The U.K. Needs a Real Government, Not Boris

Johnson’s Puppet Cabinet
This prime minister has set his government up to fail. We canʼt afford that right
now.

By Jenni Russell
Contributing Opinion Writer

May 4, 2020

LONDON — On the day a paler, thinner, notably less boisterous Boris Johnson
returned to work after his near-death coronavirus experience, a Tory member of
Parliament tweeted a GIF of a magnificent lion perched on a mountaintop, his
mane blowing in the wind. “Good to see @BorisJohnson back at the helm!” he
wrote.

This fawning sycophancy is not the norm in British politics. We haven’t, on the
whole, run Trumpian courts, or implied that our prime ministers are kings
among men. And yet, unusual and unwelcome as the adulation was, the tweeter
had a point.

Mr. Johnson’s cabinet is so markedly weak, with so few politicians of intellect

and experience, that the prime minister’s absence for nearly a month left an
alarming void. A shifting cast of ministers stood in for him at the daily pandemic
press briefings, with performances ranging from mortifying to faltering or
defensive to occasionally, thankfully, competent.

The lack of depth in the cast around this cabinet table was mercilessly
displayed, as was the nervousness of many of those obliged to face public
interrogation at such a critical time. Some, like the new chancellor, Rishi Sunak,
could handle their own briefs, but not one felt able or authorized to even begin to
address the big questions Britain now wants answered: What is the route out of
lockdown, and how should deaths be balanced against isolation, loneliness,
futures and jobs? All those queries were diverted, with evident relief, to the
stock response: We’ll have to wait until the boss gets back.

Against that background of anxious, stalling stand-ins, Mr. Johnson’s

reappearance has, indeed, felt like the welcome return of a big beast. The
country needs a leader. But his dominance is no accident. It’s the consequence
of the deliberate choice he made after he became Conservative Party leader last
year to expel principled opponents within the party and to surround himself
with smaller characters, ones who will neither threaten nor challenge him,
politicians chosen on the whole more for their malleability and their loyalty to
Mr. Johnson’s Brexit project than for their talent.

Mr. Johnson’s calculation then was that the quality of his cabinet was pretty
much immaterial. His priority was to deliver Brexit and economic policies that
the Conservatives’ new Brexit-supporting voters were demanding. That would
be driven by Mr. Johnson’s small team of political advisers in No. 10 Downing
Street, led by his ruthless, controlling, Machiavellian chief adviser, Dominic
Cummings.

In this centralization of power, a core group of insiders and allies would decide
the government’s agenda and come up with the ideas and the strategies for
carrying it out. The job of cabinet ministers would be to do, meekly, as they were
told.

No opposition was permitted. Senior, able Tory politicians of independent spirit

were passed over and exiled to the backbenches. Any cabinet ministers who
imagined they were strong enough to subvert the new system had a harsh
lesson in January, when its second-most-senior member, Sajid Javid, then the
country’s finance minister and a Johnson ally, was ordered to fire all his
advisers and replace them with those appointed by Mr. Cummings. He refused
and was forced to resign. A fear of breaching the line has haunted the remaining
ministers and encouraged timidity ever since.

The onslaught of the coronavirus has revealed how dangerous it is to

deliberately weaken the cabinet in this way. In Mr. Johnson’s absence, his
alternative power center at No. 10 could not hold. Not only did its principal
members, including Mr. Cummings, fall sick themselves, but in this emergency,
political advisers couldn’t take the place of an absent prime minister. Britain
needed and wanted to see powerful public figures in the lead. What we got were
politicians anxious about the future verdict of their puppeteers.

Britain needs better than this as it faces the most petrifying, unpredictable,
multifaceted calamity in three generations. The breadth of the problem
demands as much wisdom, competence and insight as can be brought into
Downing Street. Last week, Mr. Johnson promised to consult widely, even with
the opposition. He should extend that to where it counts, to a temporary cabinet
and government of all the best and tested Tory talents.

Instead of contriving an obedient cabinet, he should model himself on those

previous prime ministers who included rivals and ex-leaders in their
governments, knowing that the vexations of resistance, argument and
persuasion were a price worth paying for averting errors, clarifying problems,
and learning from those who had been scalded by earlier crises.

Many ex-ministers would respond to a call to serve for a short time in the
national interest. Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary, could help expand
the National Health Service. The former chancellors Kenneth Clarke and Philip
Hammond and former prime ministers John Major and David Cameron could
deploy their knowledge of financial crises and banks that won’t lend. Mr. Javid
would be an infinitely better home secretary than the inadequate Priti Patel, and
the critical backbencher Tom Tugendhat could run the Foreign Office. Mr.
Johnson’s predecessor as prime minister, Theresa May, could use her best
quality, her famed attention to detail, to oversee food and support for the
shielded and vulnerable or the delivery of personal protective equipment.

Would this even be legal? Yes, easily: Technically, a member of the cabinet must
be in the Parliament. Those who aren’t currently M.P.s could be appointed to
the House of Lords, a step the prime minister is empowered to take. If the most
anonymous and mediocre half of the cabinet were replaced by names like these,
the caliber of the executive would soar overnight. Notable former politicians
who didn’t wish to join — or were from other parties — say, Tony Blair, Gordon
Brown or William Hague — could form an advisory panel. If Mr. Johnson
worried that his temporary coronavirus cabinet would impede Brexit, its
members could agree not to interfere with that.

None of this, of course, is likely to happen. Mr. Johnson dislikes sharing the
limelight. That’s one reason the most experienced member of his cabinet,
Michael Gove, wasn’t picked to deputize for him while he was out sick. But it is
in Mr. Johnson’s self-interest, as well as the country’s, to act, for one notable
reason.

His path to the top has been based on a simple strategy: He’s not a
knowledgeable, able, policy-driven leader. He’s an optimistic figurehead who
prefers an easy life and gets competent people beneath him to do the actual
work. That strategy risks falling apart now because neither Mr. Johnson’s
narrow group of advisers nor the ministers he appointed for their loyalty are the
people best qualified to handle the grave perils ahead. He should broaden his
base and stop his chief adviser, Mr. Cummings, ruling by fear. Britain doesn’t
require a lion in this moment; it needs a leader with the humility and confidence
to recruit every necessary talent to this fight.
Jenni Russell (@jennirsl) is a columnist for The Times of London and a contributing Opinion writer.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Weʼd like to hear what you
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 https://nyti.ms/2SvqQlS

What Joe Biden Needs to Do to Beat Trump

To win, he has to find a way to get beyond the basement tapes and project
himself into our ever more digital world.

By David Axelrod and David Plouffe

Mr. Axelrod was the senior strategist for President Barack Obamaʼs
campaigns in 2008 and 2012; Mr. Plouffe was Mr. Obamaʼs campaign
manager in 2008.

May 4, 2020

Joe Biden’s most memorable moments on the campaign trail have come through
spontaneous, intensely moving encounters with people who, like Mr. Biden,
have endured searing struggle and loss. His authentic sense of empathy is a
quality uniquely suited to this agonizing moment.

Now Mr. Biden is mired in his basement, speaking to us remotely, like an

astronaut beaming back to earth from the International Space Station.

The former vice president is a man of vast experience in government. He ran

the Recovery Act for President Obama in 2009 during the economic crash and
was Mr. Obama’s active partner during other crises like the H1N1 pandemic that
same year and the 2014 Ebola outbreak.

Yet in the midst of a catastrophic virus and devastating economic coma that
command our full attention, Mr. Biden finds himself on the outside looking in.
Governors and mayors have taken center stage in the only story that matters.

And while President’s Trump’s well-watched White House briefings have been,
for him, a decidedly mixed bag, video of the president in action has been a
striking contrast to the image of his solitary challenger, consigned to his
basement.
Whether the president’s rollicking open-mic nights endure and actually help him
is highly questionable. The percentage of Americans who trust what he is
saying about the crisis is dismally low and falling. Mr. Trump has consistently
trailed Mr. Biden in public polling and the president’s fate may well be
inexorably tied to perceptions of his handling of the crisis and the path the virus
and the economy take from here.

But that’s an assumption the Biden campaign can ill afford to make.
As with every other facet of our lives, the Covid-19 pandemic has transformed
how the presidential race will be run. Every aspect of campaigning must be
rethought, from how you present yourself and reach and organize voters to how
you stage a national convention in a time when large public gatherings are
proscribed.

Adjusting to the new political realities is imperative for Mr. Biden, who ran his
first campaign for office a half-century ago. In order to break through and be
heard, he will have to up the tempo of his campaign, fully utilize his army of
powerful surrogates and embrace a new suite of virtual, data-driven tools and
creative tactics.

Online speeches from his basement won’t cut it. Written pronouncements on
this issue or that may have won attention during his many years in office, but
will get little pickup now. Broadcast interviews are fine, but most valuable only
if they generate a great and memorable line that becomes a widely shared and
consumed video moment.

Debatable: Agree to disagree, or disagree better? Broaden your perspective with

sharp arguments on the most pressing issues of the week.

For Mr. Biden, the challenge is to transform a campaign that lagged behind
many of his Democratic competitors during the primary in its use of digital
media and timely, state-of-the-art communications techniques. While television
remains a potent force, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat and
TikTok are all essential in a Covid-19 world in which candidate travel and voter
contact will be severely limited. In many respects, they are the campaign, not an
important part of it.
As much as Mr. Trump personally revels in television exposure, his campaign
has been digital first from the start. Team Trump knows where and how voters
get their information and tests a tremendous amount of content to find the
winning material their targets will consume and share. Mr. Trump’s surrogates
are a relentless presence on social media and his massive digital following
dwarfs Mr. Biden’s by a factor of 15 to one.

So what should the Biden campaign do? Here are some suggestions.

Act like an insurgent, not an incumbent.

You don’t defeat an incumbent president by playing defense. Every day, Mr.
Trump provides opportunities. It isn’t hard to get a rise out of this thin-skinned
president and knock him off his game. Be a speedboat, not a battleship. Make
him react to you.

For better or worse, the first Twitter president is a master at using social media
to frame the daily debate and news coverage. Mr. Trump’s flair for the
outrageous helps drive that attention. In contrast, Mr. Biden’s temperance and
decorum are relative strengths. But civility isn’t particularly well-suited to
social media.

Still, with creative and timely interventions, Mr. Biden can turn the tables on Mr.
Trump. To do this, the challenger needs to behave more like an insurgent,
building the capacity to wield facts, humor and mockery at lightning speed in
those surreal moments of opportunity that Mr. Trump regularly provides.
(Simple example: a Biden video, fired off in real time: “This is a cup of Lysol. It
is poison. Please do not drink it.”)

Prepare for an onslaught.

The numbers don’t lie. Mr. Trump, who lost the popular vote by three million in
2016, is the only president in history to go an entire first term without cracking
50 percent approval. Even in those battleground states he narrowly won to
capture the presidency, his numbers have lagged. Now the virus has raised
glaring questions about his erratic handling of an epochal crisis and wrecked
the robust economy he was counting on as the linchpin of his re-election
strategy.
Mr. Trump’s team knows they can’t win a referendum on his leadership, so they
will try to disqualify Mr. Biden. That process has already begun with an
extensive campaign, led by the president, regularly questioning the mental
acuity and physical stamina of the man he has branded “Sleepy Joe.” The Trump
campaign and its surrogates are relentlessly pushing this and other scurrilous
attacks online.

Negative online memes are toxic and, unanswered, will rapidly spread. The
current furor over allegations of sexual assault against Mr. Biden by a former
staffer, Tara Reade, is an example of how far negative stories can travel in the
absence of a quick, decisive response. The Biden campaign will need a more
robust rapid response operation to monitor and counter Mr. Trump’s attacks and
arm his millions of supporters with the material they need to push back.

Expand your digital footprint.

It will be hard in six months to reach social media parity with Mr. Trump. But
Mr. Biden can rapidly expand his reach with a little help from his friends. In a
recent blog post, Steve Rosenthal, a veteran Democratic organizer, suggested
that the biggest social media stars in Mr. Biden’s stable — Barack Obama,
Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and others — should commit
two days a week to sharing Mr. Biden’s posts on their own channels on Twitter,
Facebook and other social media platforms. This would instantly and
exponentially multiply Mr. Biden’s reach.
 A screen grab from a video released by BidenForPresident showing former
President Barack Obama endorsing Joe Biden’s White House bid through a
video message on April 14. BidenForPresident/Agence France-Presse, via Getty
Images

Focus on content.
Of course, it is not enough to appear in social media if the content does not
attract interest and promote sharing. So activate a virtual content production
studio and establish a unique content calendar for each major social media
platform. The creative community heavily leans progressive and is rife with
world-class talent who want to help. With many idled by Covid-19, they have
plenty of time to contribute. Enlist them and dedicate the resources to
relentless, platform-specific production.

Deploy surrogates.
For content to be effective, Mr. Biden doesn’t always have to be the star and he
shouldn’t have to carry the load. Utilize the army of well-known and well-liked
surrogates at his disposal to help deliver digital messages on the campaign’s
behalf. This will require a substantial operation, working closely with other
elected officials. content creators and the campaign’s communications shop. But
it’s worth the investment. “Biden in the Basement” is not a strong enough show
to hold the audience.

Plan for a virtual convention.

Party conventions are largely an anachronism in an era when voters select the
candidate long before the delegates gather. The main purpose of these conclaves
in the modern era has been to give the parties a chance to introduce the
nominee and the main themes of the fall campaign to a large television
audience. So if Covid-19 prevents crowds from gathering, focus instead on
producing great content that can stream live during those days, including the
essential, prime-time hours the networks generally cover.

The recent “One World: Together at Home” event to support global efforts to
combat Covid-19 was a good example of entertaining, impactful virtual
programming and a fine template. The event, which drew a huge audience,
streamed online for eight hours, with the last two broadcast live on many of the
major networks. Such a production will mean, blessedly, fewer and shorter
speeches, more music and video, and could prove vastly more engrossing than
the traditional convention.

Organize, organize, organize. (But digitally.)

In the Obama campaigns that we ran, we worked to marry the new technologies
— data analytics, text messaging and social media — to the time-honored task of
identifying, registering and mobilizing voters. We asked our supporters to share
content and treated them as ambassadors for the cause, persuading and
mobilizing their trusted friends online. This augmented the work we could do at
crowd events and the millions of doors on which our paid staff and volunteers
knocked.

There will be little traditional door-knocking in the age of Covid-19. But, sadly,
many people are idled and have more time. There are millions of Americans
who will share content, write postcards and make phone calls if they are asked.
The campaign can start simply — recruiting people to engage in relational
organizing; encouraging them to reach out to everyone in their circle; to find
supporters, identify those who may want to volunteer, discover a cousin or
friend who is truly undecided about their vote and explore why.

They then can start farming out lists of people who need encouragement to
register to vote, or who might be swing voters, flirting with skipping the election
or voting for a third party in states like Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North
Carolina, Michigan and Florida. People at home can call, converse online, write
postcards. This is an urgent need, as Mr. Trump is far ahead of Mr. Biden
organizationally in the battleground states.

Even in normal times, you have to put every point on the board you can, every
day, to win the presidency. And these are not normal times. We are a deeply
polarized country. Even in the crisis, Mr. Trump’s base of support has proved
durable and Mr. Biden’s margins in key battleground states are thin.

In recent weeks, Mr. Biden has taken impressive steps to enhance and broaden
his team for the general election. And if, in the end, the limitations imposed by
Covid-19 compel Mr. Biden and his campaign to pick up the pace and modernize
their operations, the changes the virus will have forced on them may just wind
up giving the Man in the Basement the decisive edge.
David Axelrod (@DavidAxelrod), a former senior strategist for Barack Obamaʼs presidential
campaigns, is the director of the nonpartisan Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago; David
Plouffe (@DavidPlouffe) was the campaign manager for Mr. Obamaʼs 2008 campaign and is the
author of “A Citizenʼs Guide to Beating Donald Trump.”

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Weʼd like to hear what you
think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And hereʼs our email: letters@nytimes.com.

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Coronavirus and the Sweden Myth
The countryʼs approach to the pandemic sets a seductive example. But the
United States shouldnʼt copy it.

By Ian Bremmer, Cliff Kupchan and Scott Rosenstein

Dr. Bremmer, Mr. Kupchan and Mr. Rosenstein are international political
risk analysts.

May 4, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ET

For countries battling the coronavirus pandemic, Sweden sets a seductive

example. While the world’s biggest economies have shut down, one small, well-
governed Scandinavian country has allowed most businesses to stay open. The
strategy apparently relies on “herd immunity,” in which a critical mass of
infection occurs in lower-risk populations that ultimately thwarts transmission.

But the reality is not so simple for Sweden. Government authorities there seem
to be for this strategy, then against it, then for it again if the data look promising.
And it’s dangerous to assume that even if the strategy works in Sweden, it will
work elsewhere. Leaders are grasping for strategies in a time of great
uncertainty — but the Swedish model should be approached with caution.

In Sweden, business is not actually proceeding as usual. Most travel and mass
gatherings are not allowed, and some schools have been closed. But restrictions
from government are considerably less severe than many other countries.
Restaurants and bars are still functioning, some of them only with minimal
distancing taking place.

The results have been mixed. Sweden has the highest fatalities and case count
per capita in Scandinavia, but is lower than some of its neighbors to the south.
Economic disruption has been significant but not as debilitating as other
countries. In the capital, Stockholm, the nation’s top infectious disease official
recently estimated that approximately 25 percent of the population has
developed antibodies.
It is too early to tell whether the approach has worked. Stockholm isn’t all of
Sweden. And 25 percent of its population with antibodies is not cause for an
immunity celebration. We don’t know if that percentage is accurate because the
data isn’t available, the antibody tests still appear to be of uncertain accuracy,
and we don’t even know what a positive antibody test means. There is some
optimism that most people who are infected will have some temporary
immunity. But if immunity is short-lived and only present in some individuals,
that already uncertain 25 percent becomes even less compelling. We also still
don’t know what total population percentage would be necessary to reach the
herd immunity goal. It could be as high as 80 percent of the population.

Even if we had perfect knowledge of the Swedish case, there are huge risks with
copying the strategy in a country like the United States. The American people
are far less healthy than Swedes. They have significantly higher rates of
diabetes and hypertension, two of the most-risky underlying conditions. Four
out of every 10 Americans are obese. A herd immunity strategy in America
would mean that many of these people would be on some form of lockdown for
many more weeks, most likely months.

Moreover, the Sweden example demonstrates that a targeted herd immunity

strategy doesn’t do much to protect at-risk populations either. Deaths among
the elderly in Sweden have been painfully high. In a more densely populated
country like the United States, and with a larger proportion of vulnerable
people, the human toll of a herd immunity strategy could be devastating.

But what about the economy? The choice is not between indefinite shutdown
and Russian roulette. A transition needs to occur that balances the risks at play.
From that perspective, Sweden is the future. But not because of a herd
immunity strategy. Because a more targeted approach to social distancing can
be deployed when the timing calls for it, when old-fashioned public health
methods can foster a gradual easing of restrictions in a way that can be tweaked
as we learn more and develop new tools — treatments, understanding of
immunity, testing improvements, and epidemiological data.
The key will be for countries not to let their guard down too soon. They must roll
out a testing and contact-tracing infrastructure that will allow them to identify
outbreaks early and isolate and quarantine as necessary. In the United States,
this is a realistic goal if there’s enough political willpower, fiscal firepower, and
coordination. These things — not Sweden’s experience — should guide our next
steps.
Ian Bremmer (@ianbremmer) is president, Cliff Kupchan is chairman, and Scott Rosenstein
(@scottrosenstein) is special adviser on global health at Eurasia Group.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Weʼd like to hear what you
think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And hereʼs our email: letters@nytimes.com.

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Whither the budget deficit
brecorder.com/2020/05/04/594142/whither-the-budget-deficit

ANJUM IBRAHIM May 4, 2020

There was intense speculation on the government's ability to meet the budget
deficit target of 7.2 percent for the current fiscal year, the same as projected
for 2018-19, agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) even before
the rampage wrought on the country's fragile economy by the Coronavirus;
today the projection maybe closer to 12 percent as opposed to between 9.5 to
10 percent forecast recently by the Moody's Investor Services and 9.2 percent
pre-Covid19 projection by the IMF in documents titled Request for Purchase
Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RPI).

Data released by the government in August 2019 revealed that the budget
deficit for 2018-19 was 8.9 percent and not 7.2 percent on which the 12 May
2019 IMF staff level agreement with Pakistan for a thirtynine-month Extended
Fund Facility (EFF) was reached. The Fund's pre-Covid19 projection of 9.2
percent indicates that the budget deficit target was adjusted before the onset
of the pandemic and is expected to be further adjusted as the actual impact
of the Coronavirus is quantified. Be that as it may, the IMF's focus in its
Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme was on the primary as opposed to
the budget or fiscal deficit and this is reflected in the Fund documents: “The
forthcoming budget for FY2019/20 is a first critical step in the authorities'
fiscal strategy. The budget will aim for a primary deficit of 0.6 percent of GDP
supported by tax policy revenue mobilization measures to eliminate
exemptions, curtail special treatments, and improve tax administration. This
will be accompanied by prudent spending growth aimed at preserving
essential development spending, scaling up the Benazir Income Support
Program and improve targeted subsidies, with the goal of protecting the most
vulnerable segments of society."

The first mandatory IMF review report gave the primary deficit at positive 0.6
percent – achieved due to higher revenue collections (sourced to raising
existing taxes as opposed to widening the tax net) and lower disbursements
than budgeted particularly with reference to only 8 percent release out of the
total budgeted under the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) as
opposed to 25 percent earmarked for the first quarter and less than one
percent for social development due to the then ongoing process of
updating/revamping the National Socio-Economic Registry as well as
developing a data portal aimed at consolidating data from population-based
surveys. The government committed to the Fund that in the second quarter it
would ensure that disbursements under these two heads would reach the
target levels set in the budget – a pledge that has since been largely
honoured and with respect to BISP or cash disbursements to the poor and
vulnerable the target may have exceeded the budgeted amount as per the
government's corona relief package.

The latest report on the IMF website on Pakistan titled Request for purchase
under the RPI notes a primary deficit of 0.7 percent pre-Covid19 and projects
it at negative 2.9 percent of GDP in the current fiscal year (as per the Medium
Term Macroeconomic Framework 2016/17-2024/25) due “to a 1.8 percentage
point decline in tax revenue relative to the pre-virus baseline, and the needed
higher spending to support the health response, social safety nets for the very
poor and employment." The pre-virus baseline in the first mandatory review
was 5.2 trillion rupees, downgraded from the original unrealistic baseline of
5.5 trillion rupees for the current year; reports indicate that there was a
deadlock between the Fund and Pakistan during the second mandatory
review with the former insisting on a further downgrade of the baseline to not
more than 4.9 trillion rupees while the FBR was projecting a maximum tax
collection of 4.63 trillion rupees for the year (as noted in the RFI documents).
Post-Covid19 the FBR readjusted its collection target to 3.9 billion rupees.
Hence it is unclear what the baseline was finally agreed that prompted the
Fund to announce that the staff level agreement was reached on 27 February
2020 and since the second review report has yet to be submitted to the Board,
a prerequisite for tranche release, because reportedly it contains pre-tranche
release conditions which Pakistan had not met at the time (and is not
expected to meet with the ongoing pandemic) the baseline or the structural
benchmarks and quantitative time bound targets agreed, including the FBR
target, are not known.

Additionally, the Fund's focus today is urging governments to deal with the
fallout of the virus acknowledging that the “social and economic impacts is
expected to be especially severe in the coming two quarters" or from now till
end September adding that while the Pakistani government's response has
been appropriate “but it must be temporary…and the authorities must
decisively press ahead with the reforms included in the EFF as soon as the
immediate crisis pressures subside."

The Fund appropriately acknowledges that “forecasts are subject to higher

than usual uncertainty" and that “while uncertainty is high Pakistan's economy
will be impacted through external and domestic channels." Externally,
Pakistan's exports will decline due to the global downturn in our major export
markets, more limited financial flows, and a sharp decline in remittances; and
“domestically the impact of containment measures together with heightened
uncertainty and generalized loss of confidence by business and consumers
are likely to result in concurrent demand and supply shocks feeding off each
other, with severe effects on investment and output….public finances are
expected to come under significant pressure, and access to capital markets
temporarily lost. This will give rise to urgent balance of payment needs of
about 2 billion dollars (0.8percent of GDP) in Q4 FY 2020 that, if not
addressed, could result in severe economic disruptions." The IMF projected
negative 1.5 percent growth for the Pakistan economy in 2020 which would
have repercussions on the primary as well as the budget deficit.

The budget deficit is expected to rise given the massive contraction of FBR
revenue (1.6 trillion rupees lower than the original target of 5.5 trillion rupees)
and the announcement of the 1.2 trillion rupee Corona relief package (though
it is unclear how much, if any, of this amount is additional to the budget for
example the 280 billion rupee included as wheat procurement is an annual
government purchase with the money disbursed retrieved upon sale of the
wheat, the 75 billion relief claimed under lower petroleum products is
attributable to lower international price of oil). The 2 billion dollar loans from
multilaterals to provide relief to those suffering from the pandemic are around
350 billion rupees, or only around 27 percent of the total package.

Thus while the primary deficit did not take account of the country's
indebtedness and associated repayments as and when due (a condition that
gave a reprieve to the Khan administration with respect to crippling borrowing
during the period of the Dar-led Finance Ministry) yet with a lack of focus on
the budget deficit the Fund has allowed for heavy borrowing during the
programme period, estimated at 38.6 billion dollars during the programme
duration according to the letter of intent submitted by Pakistan. The RFI
document indicates that the gross external financing requirements for the
current year are 25.36 billion dollars, (including bridging the current account
deficit of 13.8 billion dollars, amortization of 11 billion dollars) while available
financing is 23 billion dollars with official creditors extending 16.5 billion
dollars (including multilaterals and China agreeing to a rollover of 2.6 billion
dollars).

To conclude, one would hope that the government sets its budget deficit
target conservatively which would require considerable tweaking of policies
agreed in the EFF but particularly with respect to resisting upfront conditions
and opting for a more phased approach aimed at not stifling economic
activity as was the case during the pre-Covid19 programme implementation.
However there is little comfort level in this regard as the economic team, in
the letter seeking the RPI pledged that “we remain committed to the reforms
included in the EFF and aim to press ahead with their decisive implementation
as soon as the immediate pressures subside….once the current crisis has
abated we will resume the fiscal consolidation envisaged in the EFF." On
behalf of Pakistan the team also pledged that “since the funds obtained under
this RFI will be used for budget financing, we will update the existing
memorandum of understanding between the Ministry of Finance and the SBP
on their respective responsibilities for servicing the related financial
obligations to the IMF" – a document signed on behalf of the government and
which therefore needs to be reviewed by the cabinet and made public in the
spirit of transparency.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020

Humanity on profound trial
brecorder.com/2020/05/04/594143/humanity-on-profound-trial

ANDLEEB ABBAS May 4, 2020

“Human Kind" and “Gentlemen" had become obsolete words in Pre-Corona

era. Human beings were neither kind nor men / women were gentle to each
other or to their habitat. The consequences of this cruelty and unkindness
have never been more exposed as in the last 8 weeks. While a lot of speedy
progress has been made in the gaps of science, the real challenge is fulfilling
the void in “being human". Testing for COVID- 19 is being ramped up. Vaccine
for COVID-19 is already under trial. But the real test or trial is whether nations
will ramp up their humanity reserves to face a crisis that cannot be solved just
on medical grounds. The richest, the mightiest and the super powerful
countries have all started to look powerless in the face of a virus that has
gone out of hand. Wealth and resources have started looking lesser and less,
and leadership clueless. From the US to UK and from Paris to Madrid the
scenes remind you of horror movies showing ghost towns, hospitals that are
littered with dead bodies and businesses that are hitting a new bottom every
day. The economies of abundance have started looking like the economies of
scarcity.

The mask of the glittery world has slipped. Behind the pomp and grandeur of
the booming lifestyles is the stark reality of a world that can no longer pretend
that “all was, and is well". The pursuit of unlimited wants and desires had on
one hand led to unimaginable advancement in technology and economic
development but had also created stark inequalities in these countries. Even
without the two World Wars this was world without peace. Wars and
destruction were visible in nearly every region of the world. The word
globalization had become so common that nobody really understood the
implication of this philosophy. The world was cut into first, second and third
worlds. This division was based on wealth and the health of people living in
these contrasting worlds. The first world was the dream world of affluent
people, with comfortable life styles and longer live spans. The second and the
third worlds were the lesser fortune holders and the less fortunate people live
in these two worlds.

Sights of overcrowded and under-resourced hospitals, patients being refused

medical care, bodies in coffins lying unattended, long lines for people waiting
for pittance food packs were all associated with Sub Saharan countries.
These sights are now being shown in the dream cities of New York, London,
Paris and Madrid. That is perhaps the biggest wake-up call for the world. Also,
it is perhaps the scariest. These countries were the models of human
development. The pandemic has put such pressure and strain on a system
fed and bred on being “bigger and more" that it has cracked and crumbled
under the first global natural disaster of this century. These cracks have been
caused by the following 4 “norms" that acted as termites on real human
values.

1. Consumerism Waste-In the last five decades there is a race to earn more,
spend more, have more and show off more. The capitalistic model that
encourages free markets has created a living for the moment and living
beyond means imbalance in society. The more developed countries in the
West became models of affluence where all classes of society believed in
working incessantly for 5 days and then spending incessantly for 2 days.
Gadgets, clothes, items were brought with unending greed rather than need.
The latest model of phone, car, watches, the latest designer labels,
encouraged wasteful production and consumption. Factories exhaled toxic
pollution and consumers littered the environment with harmful pollutants
feeding and flourishing viruses.

2. Fragmented Family Systems- The heaviest death tolls in Europe are in Italy
and Spain. One of the main reasons is that they have the highest ratios of
aging population. Almost 90% of fatalities are in ages 60 and above. The
problem with aging population is not just of lower immunity but also lack of
family care available in these cultures. Most aging parents and grandparents
live on their own. Children and grandchildren are working and living their own
lives and visit only on Christmas or other family occasions. Old people homes
and caring homes are full of older people who are occasionally visited by their
families. In the heatwave, last summer, many older people died in France as
they did not have younger people around them to protect them from the
searing heat and providing first aid. The WHO says protect your elders from
this virus, but unlike in the eastern culture where parents and elder relatives
are the responsibility of the children, western societies have moved away
from this family protection network.

3. Arrogance Supremacy-The twenty-first century saw the emergence of

nation states that were beset with not just capital accumulation power but
racial and religious accumulation of power. While Trump raised the bar of
white supremacy, Modi raised the religious superiority hysteria. They say the
test of a nation and individual is in two moments- in high times and in low
times. Modi's unprecedented electoral success unleashed his ruthless
Hinduvta extremism. Kashmir lockdown and then riots in Delhi over the
controversial Citizen Amendment bill exposed the inhumanity of Modi. During
this pandemic Muslims have been targeted as “Corona Terrorist" and mob
lynching has gone up. Discriminatory treatment in hospitals against Muslims
has highlighted the Hitleristic values of the ruling party.

4. Self-Serving Individualism- The focus on competition and in fact “cut throat

competition" has really made cooperation and collaboration seem impossible.
The western societies that were envied due to their productivity and people
development have been found wanting. The mad rush on grocery stores to
buy it all has left many people bereft of bread and flour. Long queues on food
dole-outs belie the welfare systems of the developed countries. On the other
hand, BBC has written on “the law of generosity in combatting COVID 19 in
Pakistan". They have given example of how societal and religious values in
Pakistan are exhibited in the way people are whole heartedly focused on
providing food for the under privileged communities.
This pandemic is a unique crisis. Neither science, nor wealth, nor countries or
people alone will be able to get the world out of it sustainably. It will be the
collective will, collaborative spirit and genuine sharing, caring and giving to
each other that will take the world out of this unprecedented trial and
tribulation confronting the human race.

(The writer can be reached at andleeb.abbas1@gmail.com)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020

National Tax Council
brecorder.com/2020/05/04/594141/national-tax-council

RECORDER REPORT May 4, 2020

It is unfortunate that the NTC (National Tax Council), which was mandated
with harmonising GST (General Sales Tax) on both goods and services
between the centre and provinces, will not be able to get the job done in time
for the upcoming budget because of the lockdown necessitated by the
coronavirus. The formation of the Council and subsequent harmonisation of
GST is an essential requirement of the World Bank's budgetary support loan
of $750-900 million as well as the IMF bailout programme that has also been
put on hold because of the pandemic. According to its terms of reference,
NTC will be responsible for sales tax harmonisation, agreement on a uniform
GST rate on goods and services, a uniform portal, a uniform tax return form,
and also settle the definition of goods and services. The objective, quite
simply, is to facilitate taxpayers so they have to file a single return instead of
separate returns for FBR and the provincial tax authority concerned every
month and streamline the sales tax machinery. Yet even though the NTC has
been established it has been unable to convene at all because matters like
GST require lengthy deliberations between representatives from the centre as
well as the provinces; something that is just not possible in times of
pandemic. Now the best that can be expected is for things to improve enough
for this business to be completed in time for the next fiscal year's budget.

According to the constitution of Pakistan, sales tax on services is the domain

of the provinces, whereas sales tax on goods is the federal government's
business. Each province also has its own sales tax law with regard to taxation
on services at different rates. Then there are certain points of dispute
between the provinces and the FBR regarding whether a particular transaction
constitutes the sale of goods or service. Take the example of restaurants,
where people pay for the food as well as the ambience. So should they be
taxed for the goods or the service? Long before GST devolved to the
provinces, the federation used to treat it as a service and imposed FED
(Federal Excise Duty) instead of sales tax. But that, also, is not all. There are
also points of dispute between the provinces themselves; chief among them
being whether sale of service should be taxed on the basis of point of origin,
or destination. These issues have persisted for so long that both the IMF,
usually our lender of last resort, and World Bank, which finances development
projects, have both made further aid contingent merging the two in the name
of simplification for the tax payers. However, there are difficulties in the way
and would require painstaking deliberations in good faith between the
provinces and the federation. And it's not like these are issues that other
countries, with the required will and purpose, have not already resolved. A
good example comes from neighbour India, where the centre-state
arrangement is quite the opposite. There, the union government has the
authority to tax services while the states or provinces have the power to tax
goods. They have come up with a system, called Modvat (modified value
added tax), which combines the two heads, while another body has been
constituted for distribution. Another very instructive example is the EU
(European Union), where 28 sovereign states have been able to resolve such
difficulties and adopt a unified VAT (Value Added Tax), even though individual
tax rates are different in different countries. This is the direction in which the
NTC is supposed to move things in Pakistan as well. And though any
movement on the matter is compromised for the time being because of the
lockdown, it will surely be given high priority once things start moving again.
But, going forward, this exercise will have to be done with a very careful eye
on the historically greater autonomy of provinces post-18th Constitutional
Amendment or they will just end up disagreeing more than agreeing as usual.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2020

Relief for unemployed workers
pakobserver.net/relief-for-unemployed-workers

May 4, 2020

PROTECTING vulnerable segments of

the society during a crisis like situation
is certainly the responsibility of the
state. The challenge posed by Covid-
19 by all means is an unprecedented
one never faced by the country yet it is
satisfying to note that government
regardless of financial constraints is
making all out endeavours to mitigate its impact on poor and disadvantaged
segments of the society.
Prime Minister Imran Khan on Saturday launched another phase of Ehsaas
programme under which labourers and workers who lost their jobs due to
lockdown will be provided with financial assistance of Rs 12000. The way first
phase of Ehsaas Emergency Cash programme for poor families is being
executed is commendable, as technology has been employed to ensure
complete transparency and reach out to those deserving. Now second phase
of this programme is also important as closure of all sorts of businesses has
rendered hundreds of thousands of people jobless and this figure could go
further up if lockdown is further tightened. Hence, providing timely cash
assistance to these unemployed workers and labourers is need of the hour. A
couple of factors are important to ensure the success of this programme as
well. Firstly, these daily wageworkers are mostly illiterate. They might have
mobile phones in their hands but they mostly use them to remain in touch
with their families back home. Majority of them would not have access to
Internet besides they are also not fully acquainted with other functions of
their gadgets.
In this backdrop, it is important that government fully activates its Tiger Force
at the grass roots level to reach out those people rendered jobless by the
lockdown and help them register on web portal to become eligible for cash
assistance. Secondly, print and electronic media and Radio should be utilised
to ensure wider dissemination of the relief programme. One of the major
reasons of success of the first phase of Ehsaas Emergency Cash programme
was that Special Assistant on Poverty Alleviation Sania Nishtar fully used the
platform of stated owned Radio to acquaint and explain to the people
especially those in far flung areas about this programme. This in fact also
helped her to timely address complaints that were pouring in during
disbursements of cash to deserving families. The same modus operandi
should be used for relief programme for unemployed workers.
At this critical juncture, it is also important that well off people also come
forward in a big manner so that government could continue to extend
financial assistance to these poor families in weeks and months ahead. And
with each passing week, figure of deserving families will go up. In this
scenario, affluent class needs to demonstrate large heartedness and should
generously contribute to PM’s Relief Fund for Covid-19. There should be no
doubt on its transparency as Prime Minister Imran Khan has taken the
responsibility to personally monitoring the relief fund and on Saturday also
assured nation to share full details of the fund after audit. One may disagree
with PM’s politics but as far as his honesty is concerned, even worst of his
opponents cannot raise finger on it. Therefore, people regardless of their
political affiliations must contribute to the fund, as it is a matter of life and
death for our people. Resource rich countries should also extend financial
assistance to countries like Pakistan so that they could provide sustenance to
those in need and revive the economy from shocks of Covid-19.
Since federal government has substantially reduced petroleum prices over the
last one month, responsibility rests with provincial governments to ensure
that benefit of this cut reaches common man in the form of decline in prices
of essential commodities. As wheat harvesting season is at its peak, it must
be ensured that harvesting and threshing rates are affordable to farmers.
Since latest spell of rains has badly damaged the wheat crop in different
areas, we will also suggest federal and provincial governments to announce
relief packages for small farmers especially focusing on cutting their input
costs such as that of the fertiliser price.
Death anniversary of Hazrat Khadija-tul-Kubra (RA)
pakobserver.net/death-anniversary-of-hazrat-khadija-tul-kubra-ra

May 4, 2020

Rubab Mehdi Rizvi

HAZRAT Khadija (RA) was the first

wife of the Holy Prophet (PBUH). She
was born in Makkah. Her father’s
name was Khuwaylid bin Asad and he
was a wealthy trader. The name of Bibi
Khadija bint e Khawailad (RA) Her Title
in Islam Umm ul Momineen and Agnomen is Tahira, Her Father Name was
Khawailad Bin Asad and Her Mother Name Fatemah Bint e Zaedeh. Her Place
of Birth is Makkah and Her Death 10th Ramazan 03 years before Hijrah at the
age of 64 years also Buried in Makkah. The Geneology of both Holy Prophet
(PBUH) and Hazrat Khadija (RA) was the same reaching up to Qusayy. Her
mother and father both died within 10 years of each other. Their wealth was
divided amongst the children but it was Hazrat Khadija (RA) who took over the
family business and expanded it.
With the profit she made she helped the poor, widows, orphans, sick and the
disabled people of Makkah. She had a cousin called Waraqa bin Naufal who
was very learned man and who was not an idol worshipper. Both Waraqa and
Hazrat Khadija were monotheists and believed in one Allah. Because of her
excellent Akhlaq the Arabs (who at that time used to look down upon women)
called her Tahira – the pure one. She was also known as the ‘Princess of
Makkah’ because of her wealth. A lot of Arab nobles and princess wanted to
marry her but she refused all of them. In 595 AD, Hazrat Khadija was looking
for someone to be in charge of her caravan to Syria. Hazrat Abu Talib (RA)
suggested the Holy Prophet (PBUH) to her. She had heard of his
trustworthiness and agreed to employ him although he did not have much
trading experience. To help him she sent her slave Maysara.
The trading caravan was a great success and when Hazrat Khadija (RA) heard
of the Prophet’s skills and excellent conduct, she became his admirer. Soon it
was arranged for Hazrat Khadija (RA) to be married to the Holy Prophet
(PBUH). At that time, the Holy Prophet (PBUH) was aged 25 and Hazrat
Khadija (RA) was 40 years of age. According to Shiite tradition, this was her
first marriage and that she was not a widow as is narrated by non-shiite
sources. Hazrat Abu Talib (RA) read the Nikah on behalf of the Prophet whilst
Waqara bin Noufal read it for Hazrat Khadija. Hazrat Abu Talib (RA) paid the
mehr for his nephew and fed the people of Makkah for 3 days in celebration.
Hazrat Khadija too fed the people.
The marriage was a very happy one and their first child was a son called
Qasim. The second was Abdullah. Both died in infancy. Their third and last
child was Hazrat Fatema Zahra (RA). When the Prophet used to go to
meditate in the cave of Hira on Jabel-e-Noor, it was Hazrat Khadija (RA)
herself who would climb up there to give him his food and necesseries. She
was the first person to accept Islam as taught by the Holy Prophet (PBUH). In
616 AD, the Quraish isolated the Bani Hashim (the family of the Prophet) and
they took refuge in a ravine called Shib-e-Abu Talib. Hazrat Khadija (RA) was
there too and it was her wealth (which she donated for Islam) that sustained
the Muslims at that time. The siege lasted for 3 years during which time they
experienced hunger, thirst, and the cold and heat of the desert. Hazrat Khadija
(RA) was married to the Holy Prophet (PBUH) for 25 years. Shed died in 619
AD on the 10th of Rmazan 3 years before the Hijrah. When she died nothing
was left of her wealth – all of it was served for the propagation of Islam. She
was buried in Makkah in a cloak of the Holy Prophet (PBUH). Hazrat Abu Talib
(RA) died in this year too. The Prophet (PBUH) called the year Aam-ul-Huzn
(the year of grief). While Hazrat Khadija (RA) lived, the Holy Prophet (PBUH)
did not marry another woman and in later years he always said that she was
the best of his wives. He also said that she was one of the four perfect
women who had ever lived. The other three are Hazrat Aasiya, the wife of
Firaun, Hazrat Maryam, the mother of Prophet Isa(AS), and Hazrat Fatima
Zahra(RA).
—The writer is Barrister, based in Islamabad.
Coronavirus strategy needs review
pakobserver.net/coronavirus-strategy-needs-review-2

May 4, 2020

Kanwar Muhammad
Dilshad

It can be said with

high confidence
that the Greenland
and Antarctic ice
sheets have been
losing mass in the
last two decades
and that Arctic sea
ice and Northern
Hemisphere spring
snow cover have
continued to
decrease in extent. ·
There is high
confidence that the
sea level rise since
the middle of the 19th century has been larger than the mean sea level rise of
the prior two millennia. · Concentration of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere has increased to levels unprecedented on earth in 800,000 years.
· Total radiative forcing of the earth system, relative to 1750, is positive and
the most significant driver is the increase in CO2’s atmospheric
concentration.
Now there may be many reasons for the natural disorders caused by man: ·
Emissions of gases from the industries and vehicles, the reason being well
known; · Irregular distribution of population: This has not been studied in
details it demands. The economic growth has not been uniform on the earth,
and the type of the model of the economic growth the economic
fundamentalists adopted necessitated population control. But the population
control resulted in a great gulf between the population densities of the
different parts of the world. The Northern Block saw the thinning of not only
the human population but also the animal population in general. The Southern
Block witnessed the rise in human population. This has also resulted in a
huge gulf between average weights in different populations. The world now
has high weight, normal weight and low weight people in significant
percentages. In fact the majority of human population is either overweight or
underweight.
These differences in the density of population of human beings and animals
and the differences in weight would surely cause natural disturbances, and
the nature will try to correct this by killing humans and animals where the
population is large. If this threat is to be avoided, the North Block must start
efforts to restore the animal weight it must share according to an equitable
distribution. If it fails to do that death will keep visiting the South Block in one
form or the other. Ultimately, death or destruction will not spare North Black
either. If the South also follows an extensive population control programme, it
will not solve the problem. The bio-mass of animal kingdom has to remain the
same, and if human population decreases, it will have three effects: (1) rise of
average weight of human beings, (2) the longevity of human life with an
increase in the population of the elderly and (2) rise in the population and
weight of animals.
It has been argued by many that even the disasters categorised as natural
affect humans only where they are vulnerable. So their vulnerability
contributes to their sufferings. A natural disaster hitting an uninhabited area
may cause no losses to human beings. The loss depends on the density of
populations, the type of buildings and several other factors. It has been
further argued that human beings are also responsible because their lack of
knowledge fails to predict and they fail to take preventive measures even
when there are impending threats. According to Qur’an, natural disasters do
not only come on account of man’s violations of environmental poise but also
due to widespread moral degradation. The most notable example is the
destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah on account of the indulgence of almost
the whole population of the twin cities in homosexuality:
(He said); “Do you really have relations with men disconnecting the (natural)
path (of relationship) and indulge in the prohibited practice even openly in
your gatherings?*” (29: 29) *This is clear that almost the entire community
had indulged in homosexuality, and they were the first in the world to engage
in this perversion. Further, they indulged in this even publicly. His community
had no answer except that they said (to one another in a hateful sarcasm):
“Banish them from your city. They are the people who want to remain pure!”
(7: 82). At this, his community had no answer except that they (challenged
him) saying: “Bring on us the Wrath of God if you (claim) to be right!” (29: 29)
He said: “I hate your practices. My Lord! Rescue me and my family from their
activities!” (26: 168-169). When Our command arrived, We turned the city
upside down and rained on them brimstones as hard as baked clay, spread in
layers over one another, marked from your Lord. (God’s punishments) are
never far from offenders! (11: 82-83)
This can generate a lot of opposition in the scientific community but the truth
remains that according to Qur’an the natural catastrophes can be the result of
depraving beliefs and practices. Degradation of morality if it becomes
widespread can attract natural punishments. Obviously the current
international sciences will find it hard to accept, but this must be noted down
as a prediction that the future scientific developments will prove the
relationship between natural disasters and degradation of morals and beliefs.
Many medical disasters like the various epidemics and HIV/AIDS have direct
relationship with morality. Of course, God can intervene in a special way to
punish a community if it indulges in widespread mischief. If the disturbances
of physical environment at a larger scale bring disasters, disturbances of
social and spiritual environment at a large scale may also herald disasters.
How this relationship works is not clear at the moment; but as the time
marches ahead it is surely likely that this relationship will be unveiled.
Environmental equipoise requires a separate full-scale discussion. Here it will
suffice to say that:
1.Quran describes all the major players in the ecological balance – animals
(birds, insects, mammals, fishes and “invisible” living beings), plants, air,
water, mountains, water, canals, rivers, oceans, soil, land, fields, forests,
orchards, gardens etc. – as the indicators of God’s creative powers. Their
repeated mention in Qur’an is the proof of the importance to preserve the role
of each of these players. 2. Qur’an gives the human beings control over the
products of the universe, especially the ones on the Planet Earth. It allows
them to avail the products of Nature. But at the same time it clarifies that they
should be used judiciously and for the general welfare of the people. 3. Qur’an
permits human intervention but warns against negative intervention for
personal gains. The provisions of God can be remodelled, cleansed and
purified for specific purposes, but only the methods and procedures that do
not harm the equilibrium and balance are permitted. Those that can seriously
hamper this balance are forbidden. 4. Qur’an categorically states that the
whole universe submits to the Laws of God and also directs the human
beings to serve Him by following His System. God warns that the failure in
submitting to His System and the negation of His commands can lead to
various forms of natural disasters and afflictions like diseases, famines,
floods, huge rains, earthquakes, fall of meteors, destruction of corps by
locusts and heavy rains, etc.
Covid-19 outbreak is directly related to the mankind not following the divine
commands in choosing their eatables. In China, the meat of many wild
animals, not approved by the religion, is eaten. The Corona, according to the
emerging evidences, started from bats. Why it has caused more morbidity
and mortality in the advanced European countries and America is also yet to
be analysed. Future investigations may lead to a link with alcohol and certain
other practices. The HIV, HPV, Hepatitis B and other Sex Transmitted diseases
have occurred in clear violation of the Divine injunctions regarding sex and
Swine Flu has direct relation with the ban on pork. All these have killed the
human beings in tens of millions. Hopefully, the Corona outbreak will teach
certain lessons to the mankind and will in the longer run prove to be a boon.
Hopefully, the world and its governing organisations including the WHO will
take more positive steps in implementing what I call Dynamic Paradigm of
Health, which necessitates an effective ban on the items and practices that
have dangerous impact on health.— Concluded.
—The writer is former Federal Secretary Election Commission of Pakistan and
currently Chairman National Democratic Foundation.
Man in a hurry!
pakobserver.net/man-in-a-hurry

May 4, 2020

Khalid Saleem

IF asked to pinpoint one grievous malady that the world

suffers from, one would not be far off the mark if one were
to point the finger at the fetish of speed. As one looks
around, all one sees is one mad rush. Everyone and his
uncle appear to be in a frightful hurry. They all behave as if
they have an express train to catch. Not any train, mind you, but apparently
one that if missed could conceivably lead to earth-shaking consequences – if
not worse. One asks oneself, has something occurred lately, unbeknown to
one, to put life on this blessed planet in a faster gear, to borrow a motoring
phrase? The oft-mentioned ‘global warming’ or possibly the much-vaunted
‘globalization’ may well have something to do with it. Be that as it may, one
cannot help having a constant queasy feeling of being ‘left behind’. Looking
over the shoulder, all one sees is the rest of the world whizzing past at an
awful speed.
The whole scenario makes one not only dizzy but also a bit nostalgic for the
rather relaxed pace of yesteryears. Not that this does one any good. In actual
fact, one has the ominous feeling that things are going to get worse, before
they ever get better. The erstwhile tempo of life that was at once relaxed and
steady, regrettably now appears to be a thing of the past. One can only grin
and bear it while, at the same time, hoping for the best. Man’s mad quest for
speed may yet prove to be his un-doing! Take the instance of a most common
everyday occurrence: the meal. Remember the time when mealtime used to
be a most pleasurable occasion – to be leisurely savored and enjoyed. Alas,
no more! People have started eating faster. Gulping down food in the shortest
possible time is becoming something of a fad these days. Relaxed and
leisurely meals of yesteryear are today no more than a pleasant memory. To
look at the younger generation at mealtime, it would appear that eating is
nothing more than an unpleasant duty to be got over with in indecent haste.
The spawning of fast-food joints – much like poisonous mushrooms after
rains – is nothing short of appalling. These disagreeable establishments dish
out food at a feverish pace, with the declared objective of it being gulped
down at an even quicker speed. Before the customer realizes, he or she is
lighter in the pocket, heavier in the stomach and none the wiser for it! Of
course, it makes good business sense for those who run these
establishments, given their phenomenal turnover. As always, it is the
customer who is at the receiving end. The phrase ‘eating out’ had such a
pleasant and pleasurable connotation all its own. Before fast-food joints
made their appearance and ruined it all, this used to be one of those most
pleasant experiences that were looked forward to by whole family. Fast-food
revolution has taken magic out of these, once pleasurable, interludes leaving
them instead humdrum and, indeed, dreary.
One alludes to the fast-food fad merely as an illustration. Speed has, indeed,
penetrated the very psyche of humankind. Whether one likes it or not, it has
regrettably become a way of life, thereby leaving one’s existence spiritless
and lacklustre. Speed has taken hold of the streets and roadways. Otherwise
quite sane individuals are found charging down the roads like mad in newer
and faster vehicles. One cannot help inquiring: what is the hurry about? Is it
because they have a deadline to meet? Or, is it just the excitement of living
dangerously that motivates our daredevil motorists? What our racing heroes
tend to forget is that speed has a character all its own. Once it takes over, it is
the master. One must also make mention of the phenomenal rise in the
number of vehicles plaguing the roads these days. Thanks to the much-
vaunted macro-economic planning, every Tom, Dick and Harry can now walk
into a bank and get a car loan. How these loans are to be paid off is of little
concern to our planning experts, who cannot see beyond their bloated noses.
These are but random instances. Speed is threatening all aspects of human
existence. People are living their lives at a much faster pace. Educational
institutions are driving young children at a rate that is hardly conducive to
good education. Speed-reading is being encouraged – and that by people who
should know better. People are even talking faster. No aspect of life remains
untouched by the fetish of speed. It would be understandable if it were to
improve the quality of life. But this is hardly the case. It is speed more than
anything else that has taken the spice out of life. It is not expedient to be
unmindful of the truism that it is invariably the slow and steady that triumph
in the long run. The defenders of ‘technological progress at all cost’ would
argue that with things moving faster, life has become more efficient and
streamlined. Maybe it has; but at what cost? Is efficiency, then, to be the end
all, be all of human existence? What about the quality of life? Has the mad
rush made life any the richer? What speed may have given to life by way of
proficiency, it has taken away in terms of quality. The imperative need for a
happy compromise is evident. It is never a good idea to challenge the
prerogatives of Nature and whosoever attempts to do so would do it at his, or
her, own peril. What is needed is a decision where to draw line. But, then, who
would be arbiter? That, one is afraid, opens up an entirely new line of enquiry.
— The writer is a former ambassador and former assistant secretary general
of OIC.
Press Freedom Day
pakobserver.net/press-freedom-day

May 4, 2020

LIKE elsewhere in the world. World

Press Freedom Day was observed on
Sunday in Pakistan with representative
bodies of journalists holding rallies
and demonstrations to highlight
problems being faced by them in
discharging their duties. This time the
day was observed when Pakistan as
well as other countries is confronted with an unprecedented challenge of
Coronavirus.
In such crisis like situation, the role of media becomes more significant in
dissemination of vital and reliable information to the people. But it can only be
done if media is given the opportunity of freedom of expression and to deliver
messages to the people without being oppressed or intimidated. Freedom
Network, a media rights watchdog in an annual report, has painted a very
bleak picture of press freedom in Pakistan. The report shows that no place in
the country including the federal capital is safe for journalists. This is the
situation that both federal and provincial governments need to look into and
address immediately. It is the responsibility of these governments to provide
proper protection to journalists from physical threats. The media should not
been seen as an enemy but a partner in shaping and promoting healthy
democracy.
Over the years, media has emerged as fourth pillar of the state and proved to
be an important link between governments and citizens. In fact it will not be
wrong to say that an independent media and democracy are interlinked and
both need to move forward without any hindrance to make Pakistan a better
country. We are confident that with a new team placed in the Information
Ministry, requisite steps will be taken to provide a respectable environment to
journalists and address their genuine problems including those related to
their salaries. In fact it is through media that government can protect national
interests and project its soft and positive image. The world also needs to look
towards the plight of journalists in occupied Jammu & Kashmir where Indian
government is using abnormal tactics to stifle their voice to hide ground
realities. Gag on communication links including Internet has cut off the Valley
from rest of the world since 5th of February last year. World bodies need to
openly speak for rights of these harassed and chained Kashmiri journalists.
India most dangerous for minorities
pakobserver.net/india-most-dangerous-for-minorities

May 4, 2020

Dr Muhammad
Khan

ON 28 April 2020,
the United States
Commission for
International
Religious Freedom
(USCIRF) launched
its annual report.
The report declared
India as the most
dangerous country
for religious
minorities. This is
first time in the
history of USCIRF
that, it directly
categories India as
the dangerous country for minorities. Apart from it being dangerous, USCIRF
recommends to “United Sates” State Department that, India should be
designated as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC). It is to be noted that,
CPC countries are the ones where the states and govts engage themselves in
targeting minorities through religious victimization and severe violations of
religious freedom. USCIRF has asked the US State Department to place India
on Special Watch List (SWL). The countries placed on SWL are found involved
in severe violations of religious freedom, thus need to be put under economic
and financial sanctions including ban on visas and travel abroad of key
persons involved in violations.
The report recommends the US Government to “increase the use of targeted
sanctions to deter religious persecution by using human rights-related
financial and visa authorities to impose asset freezes and/or visa bans on
individual officials, agencies, and military units for severe religious freedom
violations, citing specific abuses”. Indian MPs, its government officials, its
military and intelligence and security agencies have been found officially
involved in the persecution of minorities to the level of killings, torture, rapes
and alienation of the minorities. India has a history of religious intolerance
and severe violations on account of belief and cast system. Owing to its
narrow minded Hindu majority, India has always been a very dangerous
country for other religious minorities. The Hindus of India even claims that
being “Hindu” they have exclusive right over the land known as Hindustan and
people from other religions have no right over this vast landmass. In recent
years, this narrow minded approach is being pursued through Hindutva
ideology.
Though the ruling BJP has been officially following Hindutva as its ideology
for decades, however majority of the upper Hindu class have conceded this
ideology as their religious, nationalistic, cultural and political philosophy. The
famous Palampur resolution-1989 set the formal agenda against the major
religious minority (Muslims) in India. The Palampur resolution decided
decisive phase of Hindu unity against Muslims and announcement for the
construction of Ram Temple at Ayodhya. It is worth mention that, Canadian
politicians have been the target of Indian Intelligence Covert Influence
Operation. Stewart Bell, a Canadian investigative journalist revealed that
Canadian security officials suspected two Indian intelligence agencies; RAW
and IB to target the Canadian politicians to support Indian interests in Canada
and in North America. These Indian agencies are working against Muslims
and Pakistani in Canada. besides, Indian diaspora has been found in financial
and visa frauds schemes in US, Canada and many EU states. Indians have
attained mastery to exploit loop holes in the policies, the student visa scams,
duping millions of dollars through fake ‘Call Centers’ in US and their latest
presentation in Canada is ensnaring Canadians through fake tax network
scam.
Since its independence in 1947, this country of 1.3 billion populations has
been hiding itself behind the mantra of secularism and world’s biggest
democracy. Though exposed by USCIRF for the first time, successive Indian
governments and their militant wings have been exploiting the minorities
throughout. Through a well-planned strategy, the areas inhabited with people
other than Hindu majority were kept backward and deprived of basic facilities
of life. The worst among all was the economic deprivation and providing no
facilities for the basic education for these poor religious minorities. Besides,
Sikhs forming approximately 1.9% of Indian total population are being
discriminated and relegated in all sphere of life in Hindu dominated India. In
the post 1980s campaign, the Sikhs are looked down and considered as anti-
state and anti-India. Today, RSS is directly targeting the Sikh community in
India. Christian forming almost 3% of Indian population are equally
discriminated and humiliated in India. They are also facing the fanatic
onslaught of the RSS for conversion into Hinduism. Through a massive
campaign against Muslim, the major minority group in India, forming over
15% of total population, Indian Muslim are discriminated, humiliated and
forced to convert into Hinduism or else leave India. The New York Times in its
Opinion page of August 17, 2017 wrote an article, entitled, “India’s Muslims
and the Price of Partition”. The prestigious newspaper mentioned salient of
the Indian policies towards Indian Muslims. As per the contents of this article,
the Modi’s India demand Muslims that, “They should reconvert to Hinduism”
this is a unanimous call from the Hindus, the BJP and its militant wing, the
RSS in particular.
The logic, Hindu majority has, since Indian Muslims were converted from
Hinduism during Muslims rule in India, therefore, they have to reconvert into
Hinduism. Very recently, a Hindu group, known as, “Hindu Jagran Manch”
indeed an offshoot of the RSS, has started a campaign to marry the Muslim
girls with Hindu boys. As per Pew Research Centre analysis- 2018, out of 198
countries, India ranked as fourth worst in the world for religious intolerance.
The 2020 USCIRF report is an eye opener for the civilized world. Amnesty
International and other human rights organizations including have been
highlighting the massive human rights violations, committed by India as a
state policy. In 2018 and 2019, the Office of the United Nations High
Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has accused India of massive
human rights violation in the Indian occupied Kashmir. In 2019 and 2020,
India has massively violated the rights of religious minorities under the
philosophy of Hinutva. New Delhi has made special constitutional
amendments like CAA-2019 to target the minorities in India. The world
community must reconcile its relationship and massive economic investment
in India since followers of Hindutva have no place for the followers of other
religions.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University,
Islamabad.
COVID-19: Socio-economic impacts
pakobserver.net/covid-19-socio-economic-impacts

May 4, 2020

Aqeel Abbas

THE precautions to stay safe from

Corona Virus pandemic forced the PTI
government to lockdown all formal,
informal, small and big enterprises.
The Prime Minister of Pakistan denied
lockdown of an entire country where
poor middle class and daily workers constitute giant chunk of populace, but
this harsh step had to be taken. In his discourse, he assured the public that no
deliberate attempts are made for any form of partial or complete closure at
first operation. The Sindh government took step of lockdown after abrupt
exposure to virus and followed by other provincial govts. The Punjab
administration proceeded late for step as number of cases increased from all
other territories.
The already closed educational institutes and lockdown of formal, informal
businesses, transportation, trade, agriculture activities soared the economic
catastrophe of the country to an unprecedented level. The 60% population
lives below poverty line and quarter of one hundred is exceptionally
inadequate. The economists have analyzed that crisis will burden first two
quarters of fiscal year 2021. The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) went down
100 point due to closure of marketing in all big cities in first week of March.
The vehicle of Pakistani economy is textile which comprises 60 percent of
economy and production of textile entities requires import of raw material
from China. Borders are shut down and flight operations are suspended
leading to no manufacturing of textile. Chinese President asserted start of
trade with European states and Pakistan, but it would take time to resume
trade again. Not only textile industry but agriculture sector also stationed
working and became root of hurting for daily wagers both in urban and rural
areas.
To heal the wounds of daily wagers, the government announces relief
package of 1 trillion rupees. In a meeting of Economic Coordination
Committee, the PM directs all ministers to utilize the money for betterment of
poor sector. Following the footsteps of federal government, the provincial
governments also broadcast aids for down and out people. The Chief Minister
of Punjab promulgates the support of 2.5 million families as province has
most number of cases now. The supply of edibles to poor families is a need
of time and the PM establishes Coronavirus Tiger Force to provide
commodities at doorsteps.
No doubt government is in dire need to weaken the confinement, but it should
keep an objective look on current scenario. The medical team from China
declared month of April critical for transmission and recommended feasible
lock down for few more weeks. The administration should concern the pros
and cons before taking any step. The Islamabad High Court ordered to turn
local hotels into quarantine centres. If govt wants to restore businesses, it
should speed up safety measures as well. The unshielded exposure to social
contact would raise number to critical limits. European states and developed
countries would have preferred complete closure but Pakistan has other
concerns before taking an acute action.
The social workers, artists and philanthropists stepped forward to ace
difficulties of miserable population. Moreover, celebrities are striving to
convey the message of societal coherence to the public. Our public is not
ready to harness the restrictions inflicted by the government because some
are unaware of the severity of situation and others veil pandemic in religious
fabric. The collective efforts are required to acknowledge public that safety
belongs to stay at home policy. Rebellious stances promoting hatred against
restrictions would bring forth only more losses. The President also intervened
and requested clerics of Al Azhar University to issued a decree to temporarily
suspend congregational prayers. Finally, we need to united and follow all
precautions and hygiene, safe distance to beat this invisible enemy.
—The writer is freelance columnist, based in Sargodha.
2020-05-03T22:58:16+05:00 Asad Iqbal

Silver lining over the corona cloud

The corona pandemic has made everyone in the world worried about
the future. While people are quarantined at home and doctors and
government personnel are ghting this virus on the frontline, there are
researchers who are constantly analysing data in a bid to make sense
out of this chaos. One such research has shown a silver lining in these
dark times.

A research conducted by the Stanford university in Santa Clara county

of the United States has claimed that coronavirus may not be as deadly
as it was purported to be. The study measures the seroprevalence of the
antibody i.e. how far the virus has spread in the population (The
antibody will only be present in your blood if you are or were exposed to
the pathogen). The surprising results show that the virus was much
widespread than believed by the policymakers. To be precise, in the
Santa Clara County where this study was undertaken, the reported
con rmed cases of corona were 965. However, according to the study,
the number of cases, on the same day, were somewhere between 48000
and 81000. This means that there may be at least 50 times more
patients than the reported number. As testing is only done once the
symptoms emerge, it means that in a large number of cases, there are
no symptoms to show even if one is a ected by the virus.

PM Imran, Ethiopian counterpart discuss

bilateral ties over ...
How is this a silver lining? This is de nitely bad news. Well, no. Two
things ow from this. First, if the actual number of cases are much
more (read 50 times more), then the fatality rate of COVID-19 is much
lower. Simple mathematics show that when the denominator increases
i.e. total a ected people, the answer decreases i.e. the fatality rate.
Leaving out the details, the study made some calculations and arrived
at a fatality rate of 0.12-0.2 %. Of course, there were assumptions in
these calculations and the actual gure may be higher or even lower.
Secondly, it means that coronavirus is less deadly than diseases like
Malaria and almost on the same footing as our common u.

However, this study has been criticised by many experts as being

fraught with errors while at the same time it has been validated and
strengthened by studies that come up with similar conclusions. A study
by University of South California claims a similar prevalence rate in the
Los Angeles area. Such con icting results often confuse people. Let’s
just focus on the bright side and pray that these results prove to be true
in the long run.

Govt to ease lock-down restrictions gradually;

Tiger Force volunteers ...

However, this begs the question, if it is not so lethal, why is there such
fear and chaos? Why do we see corona patients su ering so much? Why
have hospitals been erected to ensure that the supply of hospital beds is
at its maximum? It is without a doubt that COVID-19, if not controlled,
has the ability to cause su ering. Countries have not faced anything of
such sort in recent history. Therefore, without thinking, they are doing
whatever they see other countries doing.

During such times, the hope of a silver lining is desperately needed.

Therefore, looking for a silver lining, I arrived at an analysis of COVID-
19 deaths in New York. According to the data available on the site of the
hospitalisation rate and death rate is highest in the age bracket of 75+
and the lowest in ages 18 and below. This means that the older you are,
the more you are at risk of getting infected and dying from COVID-19.
But the most important gure of all is that 77% of all the people who
died due to corona in NYC had an underlying health condition. One is
more vulnerable to corona if one is already ghting a disease.

'Lou Jee' campaign gains overwhelming support

across media platforms ...

This data paints a picture in one city of the world but most likely it
mimics the situation elsewhere as well. There are some important
takeaways. Firstly, the world might have overestimated the lethality of
COVID-19 because it was an unprecedented occurrence. Secondly, we
need to protect our elderly and those with already compromised
immune systems due to other health conditions. The young are
relatively immune and children are almost entirely safe from corona.
Lastly, it is good that we have prepared ourselves by erecting
temporary hospitals but we may not need them after all. People with
mild symptoms can stay at home and recover easily.

All this may seem too good to be true and it may be too early to draw
any strong conclusions but in these times of despair we would like to
look at a silver lining. Let us keep looking with hope and pray that the
silver lining actually emerges out and lightens up the whole world.

Viewed using Just Read

2020-05-03T22:58:50+05:00 Fawad Mughal

The revolution will not be televised

We’re seeing a revolution of sorts happening in the media and online
media.

The “revolution” I refer to involves the most insidious

“revolutionaries”; those who would harm Pakistan and its prestige, at
every available juncture and venue, and then claim that they’re doing
so out of “love” for it. They’re the ones who would gladly excoriate,
shred, and defenestrate Pakistan’s dignity, and then insist that their
motives for this are purely “patriotic”. Yes. Those types.

It takes many shapes and forms; does this motley crew of

“revolutionaries”. It incorporates diverse – at times, wildly-colourful
– individuals. Some are bona de scholars; wielding the most
important-sounding academic degrees from various foreign
universities of repute. Some are genuine professionals; having honed
their skills in the “service” of Pakistan as diplomats, civil servants or
political functionaries. Others are relative “nobodies”, with nothing
special about them, other than their knack for making the most out of a
situation, and Pakistan does face so many situations on any given day.
But then, again, if a situation doesn’t exist or fails to manifest itself,
well they’ll just manufacture one. Something that conveniently adds to
the stereotypes, prejudices and tropes that are associated with
Pakistan. I mean, if Doctor-Ambassador-Barrister-Academic from the
Institute of Massive Intellectual Whatchamacallit at London-Paris-
Washington thinks so, it has to be right. Right?
 PM Imran, Ethiopian counterpart discuss
bilateral ties over ...

All too often, these “revolutionaries” quote that they are in danger of
persecution because of some frivolous “memo” they may or may not
have initiated. Or being forcibly “disappeared” because they are writing
about some sinister “incorporated” identities. Or that assassination
threats loom large over their heads because of some “leak” or the
other; which is why they’d feel safer in Paris, Zurich or Florida. This, of
course, is why they chose to leave their venerated homeland with such
a heavy heart.

Ironically, this is also why they choose to write about Pakistan and its
ills, with such eloquence, passion and re. Despite living elsewhere, in
a society that is far removed from Pakistan, and paid by institutes,
press agencies, media channels and publications where the mode of
payment is in dollars, francs and pounds rather than measly rupees,
they are taken as the de nitive voice on Pakistan. Their feigned outrage
at what’s happening in Pakistan is carefully contrived to feed
preconceived notions about the country they’re no longer a part of. It is
aimed at those who live in the country they’re desperate to be a part of.
Their words are tinged with the brimstone and hell re of the
incandescently self-righteous. Their pained expressions on cable news
are the stu Greek tragedies are made of.

Govt to ease lock-down restrictions gradually;

Tiger Force volunteers ...

In the Spanish Civil War of 1936, the term “quinta columna” gained
prominence; as a gure of speech for a group of people who seek to
undermine or harm a larger group from within, usually at the behest of
an enemy country state or group This has been ascribed to
Generalissimo Franco, who allegedly spoke of “four Nationalist
columns marching on Madrid, while the fth column waited to rise
from within”.

This, then, is the beauty of this “revolution”. The “revolutionaries” are

the fth columnists; except they aren’t, since they’re not actually
within Pakistan. Instead, those that are in Pakistan are the ones they
accuse of being fth columnists; the ones who are out to destroy their
“beloved” (former) country. Their targets are numerous and diverse:
the military, the “establishment”, the “deep state”, various
governmental “ma as”, religious sentiment and even social norms
that are unique to Pakistan but are completely alien or even repugnant
to an “outsider” audience.

'Lou Jee' campaign gains overwhelming support

across media platforms ...

The “revolutionaries” don’t need facts, gures or hardcore research, or

any research for that matter, to re up the “revolution”. This is
because they’re feeding into a narrative that has already been well-
entrenched in minds that are all too eager to hear their existing
(mis)conceptions reinforced. For their e orts, they’re awarded
important-sounding prizes for intellectual courage or journalistic
fearlessness; which look jolly good on their resumes, by the way. Their
books make best-seller lists, on a regular basis. They’re much in
demand on the lectures-and-talks circuits, worldwide. As long as
they’re telling their adopted audience what they want to hear, that is.

And that is why they’ll o er hyperbole and sensation, and downright

falsehoods, in ridiculously generous servings.

That is why these “revolutionaries”, and by now, everyone has an even

more fair idea of them, are so dangerous to the image of Pakistan,
d ti ll d b d
 US Air Force claims readiness to use nuclear
arsenal despite ...

The poet and musician Gil Scott-Henry once wrote a song titled “The
Revolution Will Not Be Televised”; an epic narration which was
perhaps one of the most culturally signi cant songs pertaining to the
Black Power movement of the 1960s.

In Pakistan, it seems the “revolution” will not be televised, either.

Then again, perhaps it might be. But on Fox News, maybe. Or the BBC
World Service. Or NDTV. On PTV, though? Probably not so much.

Viewed using Just Read

2020-05-03T22:59:09+05:00 The Nation

Unnecessary Delay
Maybe the crises Pakistan is engulfed in are responsible for the cabinet
being unable to approve the prices of some 300 essential drugs.
However, it should not be used as an excuse to abdicate responsibility.
The fact that the issue of xing new prices of these medicines is
pending since February 2019 is hard to reconcile with the incumbent
government’s commitment to public health. As a result of this delay,
patients with serious ailments are likely to pay the price. At times, this
can also mean unnecessary deaths. The delay by the cabinet in xing
the prices, after approval has already been given the Drugs Regulatory
Authority of Pakistan (DRAP), has resulted in the shortage of life-
saving drugs in the market. This time, DRAP cannot be held responsible
for the lack of medicines in the market.

It is true that the federal government has plenty on its plate right now.
The pandemic has thrown up so many problems that require attention.
While it has done much on the COVID-19 front, the government is yet
to respond to the persistent and acute shortage of medicines. One
wonders why the government does not devise a strategy that can
maintain a steady supply of drugs in the market. After all, one promise
that connects a person to the state is the latter’s pledge to protect the
life of the former. If the state cannot ful l its most fundamental
promise to its citizens, then the social contract between the two lies in
tatters.

PM Imran, Ethiopian counterpart discuss

bilateral ties over ...
In this whole scenario, where di erent stakeholders are lamenting the
case of shortage, the voice of the main stakeholder, i.e., the patient is
completely neglected. Patients have nowhere to go to seek redressal.
The government must call cabinet meetings for determining the prices
of these essential medicines. However, it must also negotiate with
manufacturers so that important drugs are available in the market at
a ordable rates.

Viewed using Just Read

2020-05-03T22:59:48+05:00 The Nation

Enhanced Testing
As coronavirus cases surge past the 7,000 mark in both Sindh and
Punjab, respective governments are preparing to begin community or
sample testing. This is the need of the hour because with cases rising at
a faster pace now, the provincial governments must ramp up their
testing e orts, which will allow them to gain greater insight into
identifying clusters and take precautions accordingly. Keeping in view
the current numbers, community surveillance and smart sampling
should begin as soon as possible. As observed in other countries, it can
be quite challenging to contain transmissions after a certain threshold
is crossed.

So far, Pakistan has been surprisingly successful in preventing

widespread transmission despite a large population and limited
resources. But grave economic realities have forced the government to
ease the lockdown. The pandemic is going to take a heavy toll on the
economy, and recovery may take several years. If the economy does not
reopen, millions of people, especially the most vulnerable in our
society, stand to lose everything. This is why the government decided
in favour of gradually reopening the country. Now, as business activity
rises and interactions become more frequent, there is greater risk of
cases surging. Despite SOPs and guidelines, it is rather challenging to
ensure that everyone is fully compliant. And it is not just callousness
that may be responsible; the virus is just highly transmissible, it can
survive on surfaces for days and carriers can remain asymptomatic.

PM Imran, Ethiopian counterpart discuss

bilateral ties over ...
In the days ahead, respective governments will nd that early
preparation in terms of testing kits, PPE availability, quarantine
centres and hospital preparedness will prove crucial in coping with the
fallout. As a vaccine is unavailable and will remain so for a long period
of time, identi cation and containment through surveillance and rapid
testing should be prioritised.

Viewed using Just Read

Lessons from Covid-19
thenews.com.pk/print/653714-lessons-from-covid-19

Although far from over, the Covid-19 pandemic has already provided
important lessons. From the public health point of view, perhaps the most
important one is that the best service a government can give its citizens –
and to the rest of the world – is to never ignore, dismiss, or hide the extent of
an infectious disease outbreak, because it has the potential of becoming an
epidemic or even a pandemic that will spread throughout most countries in
the world.

Sound information is essential in controlling an epidemic effectively. The

backbone of public health policies and actions entails accurate and reliable
statistics about the number of cases and their location. When a viral infection
evolves in a way that seems ominous from the beginning, the moral
responsibility of all governments is to make this information widely known so
that adequate measures of protection can be taken at the global level.

Further, it is important to convey such information through the World Health

Organization (WHO), where all governments (including the United States) are
represented, to insure the formulation of adequate policies. Delay in
conveying this information has been costly in the fight against Covid-19,
allowing the pandemic to progress at a vertiginous pace and causing an
unnecessary loss of lives.

Equally crucial is to know how many diagnostic tests and hospital beds are
available, as well as the number of health professionals with protective
equipment and all other resources necessary to combat an epidemic. Where
these resources are insufficient, the government should be prepared to take
all measures to make them available at the first sign of an epidemic. Outbreak
and epidemic preparedness plans already exist in most countries, so national
authorities should make sure that they are periodically checked and updated.
Because a pandemic is a public health issue with heavy political overtones, it
is tempting to put political figures in charge. This mistake is proving costly,
since only public health experts have the technical knowledge to understand
the dynamics of the outbreak and control its spread. Recent examples of
political leaders touting untested cures that may end up being more
dangerous than helpful show the dangers of this approach. President Donald
Trump’s suggestions that the coronavirus could be treated with household
disinfectants and UV light injected under the skin have caused surprise and
consternation worldwide.

Excerpted from: 'Lessons From the COVID-19 Pandemic'.

Commondreams.org
The US-China row
thenews.com.pk/print/653713-the-us-china-row

It seemed that tempers were cooling down when the US and China agreed to
suspend their trade war in early January 2020. Suddenly the world scenario
changed and the trading rivals were seen battling against a common invisible
enemy – Covid-19.

This was a unique moment to settle differences and work in cooperation

against this devastating enemy that has wreaked terrible human tragedy and
economic catastrophe. But the Covid crisis accentuated the political
differences between the adversaries. Moving away from a tariff war, they
engaged in a full-blown war of words bringing the tempers to a boiling point.

The spat began with the origin of the coronavirus. US President Trump and
his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have trumpeted that the coronavirus
originated in a research lab in Wuhan, China, branding it as ‘Chinese virus’ and
‘Wuhan virus’, implying that it was a bio-weapon introduced to harm the world
in general and US in particular. Trump slammed China for its lack of
transparency and exacerbating the pandemic with its early coverup.

Chinese diplomats have reacted with fury calling the comment by Trump
racist and, in a tit-for-tat approach, which alleged that the virus was
introduced by the US military in Wuhan in October 2019 when the city hosted
the Military World Games. On a broader level, these accusations are viewed
by the Chinese as a way by the US of deflecting criticism over its lack of
preparedness in tackling the escalating number of fatalities.

If China had acceded to the request by America, in early January, and now
again, to allow access to inspect Wuhan laboratories would there be any
prospect of a better relationship? Probably not, because the air was dense
with a smog of mistrust already when the US had blatantly accused China of
cybercrime and intellectual property theft, blacklisted tech giant Huawei over
allegations of spying, consistently challenged China’s claim in the South
China Sea, outrageously blamed China for loss of its manufacturing activity
and high deficit – thus imposing steep tariffs on imported goods from China.

Covid-19 may have contained the trade war, inadvertently, but tensions have
spiraled in many other areas like throttling flow of information. On February
18, when China was grappling with the deadly coronavirus and the US was not
so critical, the Trump administration designated five Chinese media
organizations as ‘foreign missions’ of the Chinese government branding them
as propagandists and not journalists. Much provoked, the next day Chinese
announced expulsion of three Wall Street journal reporters apparently as a
punishment for a headline in the newspaper that called China as the “real sick
man of Asia.”

In brazen retaliation, America expelled sixty Chinese nationals working for

those five media organizations it had declared ‘foreign missions’. The blame
game did not end here. China ordered expulsion of all American citizens,
almost a dozen, working for the New York Times, Washington Post and the
Wall Street Journal. Journalists are the collateral damage in the Covid crisis in
a struggle for global pre-eminence.

The virus may have originated in the Wuhan city of China, initially, but we have
seen how infections have dwindled in China and surged in the US. That should
be an alarming sign, a wakeup call for introspection to focus all energies to
combat the virulent disease. Ironically, at such a critical juncture, Trump
suspended American funding to the WHO, accusing it of a pro-China bias in
pushing the misinformation on the coronavirus. This is a highly embarrassing
position taken by the US. It also raises the question of whether Trump is even
interested in leading a global response to the virus.

Foreign policy watchers in the West have opined that China will be the winner
from the Covid catastrophe. Not a misplaced observation; we have seen how
China has smartly outwitted the attack of the invisible enemy at its gate. And
now it is at the forefront in helping countries with meager health resources
and delayed response by providing them medical supplies. It has emerged as
a big creditor with its willingness to back the G-20 deal to suspend bilateral
loans repayments by the poor countries for the year as a relief measure.

As the pandemic is worsening, so is the scapegoating. Such infantile blame

games and insinuations will only poison a sour relationship. This time should
be treated more than as a show of strength between competing political
economies. This is a time to establish joint cooperation and voluntary
collaboration to defeat the disease globally.

The writer holds an LLM degree in international economic law from the
University of Warwick.

Email: beelam_ramzan@yahoo.com
After the pandemic
thenews.com.pk/print/653712-after-the-pandemic

Covid-19 has wreaked havoc on the world's economy. According to the latest
IMF estimates, the global economy will shrink by three percent this year and
the global economic output will tumble by about $9 trillion over two years.

This suggests that the economic impact of Covid-19 will be felt in years to
come and recovery will not be rapid as had been predicted earlier. The
developing economies are more vulnerable to this pandemic as they have
traditionally relied on exports to the developed countries and foreign
remittances from their large diaspora working in foreign countries. Now that
their exports will be hit by low demand in the target markets and foreign
remittances will dry up due to large scale redundancies of expat workers in
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries caused by the current
pandemic and low oil prices – one of the biggest challenges for these
countries will be to avoid going into recession.

This will be further exacerbated due to the flight of hot money by large
international investors from these countries to the US treasury bonds as a
safe haven, and a significant decrease in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
globally. According to a recent UN report, international FDI flows may contract
by up to 15 percent due to the coronavirus, while the capital outflows from the
emerging economies have already exceeded $97 billion since January 2020.
All of this may cause large currency depreciation in developing countries,
adding to their already faltering economies due to the spread of Covid-19.
Here, I discuss some of the challenges and provide some suggestions for
developing countries to tackle these challenges and prepare themselves for
the future.

Unemployment claims in the US alone hit more than 26 million as of April 25,
and they are expected to rise further in the coming weeks. This implies an
unprecedented slowdown in the world's largest economy and thus a lower
consumer demand. This will severely affect exports from developing
countries such as Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, etc.

In 2019, Bangladesh, for example, exported goods worth $45.7 billion to the
developed world. An overwhelming majority of the exported goods comprised
textile-related items. Of which 71 percent were limited to only 10 countries
including mainland Europe and North America with the US being the top
destination.

As most of these economies have been most severely impacted by the

current pandemic, the developing countries will have to propel local demand
to absorb the impact of a sharp decline in their exports. This could in part be
achieved through reducing the local interest rates, transforming export-
oriented industries to be more competitive locally; promoting and
incentivizing local industries to generate local employment, and removing the
red-tapism for fast track policymaking and implementation of such policies.

In parallel, developing countries will have to invest in the local Research and
Development (R&D) with a special focus on medical and industrial sectors to
reduce their reliance on imports from the developed world. This would not
only help in providing low-cost solutions to local businesses but could also
mitigate some pressure on their exchange rates.

Another important challenge for the developing countries would be to cope

with diminishing tourism in the post-Covid-19 regime. According to the World
Travel and Tourism Council, the Covid-19 pandemic could hit 50 million jobs
worldwide in the travel and tourism industry. In that, Asia is expected to be the
worst affected. The travel restrictions could persist for many months and it
may take two to three years for the travel industry to return to "new normal" as
suggested by a recent Bloomberg article. All this puts developing countries
such as Turkey, Egypt, Thailand, and India – which have traditionally attracted
a large number of tourists – at odds and will badly aggravate their already
sluggish economies in the post Covid-19 period.
The developing countries should focus on boosting local tourism to make up
for the shortfall in international tourism, and must provide generous financial
support for the local tourism sector to survive the aftershocks of this
pandemic. In that regard, the rescheduling of bilateral/ multilateral loans as
agreed by G20 countries and emergency financing from international donor
agencies may provide much needed financial support to these sectors in the
developing countries.

While big businesses have relatively fared better due to fewer interruptions in
the physical supply chain, the SMEs have suffered the most due to the
lockdowns around the world. This has particularly been more painful for the
developing countries where SMEs contribute around 60-70 percent in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) and account for around 80 percent of the total
employment in developing economies. The governments in developing
countries need to provide generous financial stimulus in the form of bridge
financing and microloans to avoid big layoffs and closure of SMEs, which may
lead to a deep economic recession in these economies.

A piece of good news during the current pandemic for most of the developing
countries has been a record low oil prices in our recent history. However,
barring China, the emerging markets have not been able to take full advantage
of plummeting oil prices due to very limited storage capacities and lack of
robust risk management policies. The developing countries should invest in
increasing their storage capacities and engage in hedging activities such as
buying oil futures to benefit from the oil price slumps.

Even after the coronavirus is gone, the post-Covid-19 world will be different in
many ways. The countries that will anticipate those changes in advance will
do better than others in the post-Covid-19 regime. Adversaries always present
new opportunities and these who grab these opportunities come out winners.

The writer is an assistant professor at the College of Economics and Political

Science, Sultan Qaboos University in Muscat, Oman.
Private schools and you
thenews.com.pk/print/653711-private-schools-and-you

Much applause and many complaints are on display for the government’s
response to Covid-19 thus far. This is to be expected. But an area that is not
being focused on is what the private sector has to offer in these dire times.

It is the government’s duty to protect the citizenry. And while it is no obligation

of the private sector, perhaps they should stand a bit taller than they are at
present. One group that can afford to stand especially tall is Punjab’s
increasingly privatized education sector.

The last decade has been kind to private education in Punjab. The number of
private schools has ballooned in the thousands and now rivals the public
sector’s 50,000 plus number. The most expensive private schools subscribe
to Ray Kroc’s model of McDonalds-style franchising and enjoy massive
profits. When confronted with angry parents, government officials, and the
Supreme Court that respectively request, tell and order them to be more open-
hearted to issues such as school fee increases, they entrench themselves in
courts via legal battles. Some refuse to comply until, as a matter of law, they
absolutely have to.

See how their opinion measures up to this one. A school fee increase cap
issue, originating from the joint frustration of parents in 2015, was remarked
upon in 2019 by Justice Ijaz-ul-Ahsan: “By starting with one school, the
owners have 100 schools in different cities. Despite the cap of five percent,
the profits of some schools are 30-40 percent. [The] average return equity of
every school is amazing….”

It is not illegal to run a profitable business. Fee hikes for the sake of fee hikes
may cause parents consternation that, to these schools, their child seems
more a commodity to be accurately priced than the spark of learning
brimming with potential promised them in glossy brochures slathered in so
many SAT words that they would make an English Major blush.
But schools were not penalized till this government chose to make great
strides towards enforcing the Supreme Court’s ruling. It is one thing to profit
from the sweat of one’s brow. It is another to use market forces to corner
consumers, clients, and children. Schools should be aware that Competition
Commission laws are not kind, neither to monopolies nor monopolists.

The government asked private schools to comply with a 20 percent school

fee reduction for the next few months to afford mothers and fathers of
students some relief. Those that agreed required a great deal of cajoling
before they accepted. They still deserve praise. And this is where the
conversation gets difficult. If you are a profitable franchise in the years of fat,
perhaps in the lean years, while not legally compelled to, there is a moral onus
on you to be forgiving to the patrons who came to you when times were good.

Perhaps private schools with large coffers that so zealously defend their
balance sheets should consider that a voluntary 50 percent reduction without
government intervention would have won them a tremendous amount of
goodwill. Perhaps they should practise good business sense and consider the
long-term ramifications of their actions. Perhaps upsetting your clients to the
point where they are forming united Facebook groups, issuing legal writs, and
begging the government for assistance is a bad business strategy. Ford did
not grow fat off slapping potential customers in the mouth each time they
asked for a Model T.

Let’s do the math. Cuts of 20 percent for two months comes to a reduction of
3.33 percent of school fees annually. Other than school fees, no other school
revenue (uniforms, books, etc) is being reduced. Losing less than 3.33
percent of revenues so that parents can continue to send their children to
school is not the financial wrecking ball it is being made out to be. Of course,
not all private schools are equally sized. Smaller ones will feel any reduction
in any revenue far more powerfully than the largest private schools which can
shrug off such small revenue reductions and still command large profit
margins.
Pakistan is a charitable country. It contributes more than one percent of its
GDP to charity (comparable to the UK’s 1.3 percent and Canada’s 1.2 percent)
according to the Stanford Social Innovation Review. This is despite it being far
from as wealthy as those nations. If our citizens are outliers in their charity,
then why is there such a tussle over 20 percent school fee reductions? Why
will the largest private schools not agree to temporary 50 percent fee
reductions without government intervention?

If our most extraordinary citizens are not willing to exercise the innovation
and will that made them what they are then perhaps they are not quite so
extraordinary. Ask more of big business. It is not idealistic to do so. Helpers
do exist in our society. Ask Hussain Dawood and his recent donation of Rs1
billion. Actions are loud. Words less so.

For institutions that are supposed to inform our youth of how to think, how to
act and how to value actions over the words in thick card stock brochures, the
top bracket of these schools is far from a passing grade.

The writer is a consultant working in education.

Twitter: @notsaadkhan
Super tax
thenews.com.pk/print/653708-super-tax

According to some reports, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is considering

a super-corona tax for the rich in the country. The government may include
this proposal – though it is in early stages at the moment – in the budget
recommendations for the next fiscal year starting in July 2020. Apparently the
government will impose this tax to generate extra money for providing
financial relief to the needy. The details of this proposal are still under
consideration and may take a couple of months to finalize. The next two
months will be crucial for at least two reasons. One, the trajectory that Covid-
19 takes in the country will determine the magnitude of efforts further
required to stem the disease; and two, the allocation of resources for the next
budget will need a fundamental change in the way we have been collecting
revenues and disbursing funds under various heads. In terms of revenue
collection, the FBR will be striving to achieve the desired tax collection target
of Rs5.1 trillion in the next budget, which may or may not be possible without
additional measures. If we are able to restore full economic activities by the
end of this fiscal year, the start of the next will be much easier.

But if the crisis takes a protracted path, which seems to be likely at the
moment, a proposal like a new corona tax on the rich and wealthy will
become inevitable. In that case, the government needs to define the features
of the rich and wealthy carefully, without putting extra pressure on those who
are already under the strain of an imminent financial crunch. Suggestions
such as anyone who owns an above 1000cc car should be paying a super tax
is preposterous. Simply imposing this tax on anyone without considering their
present level of income is also likely to cause further hardships on people
who currently do not fall in a high-income category. The FBR must be diligent
in developing its proposals, keeping in mind the current level of income of
those who own a car or a house. A largely untaxed segment of the privileged
are land-owners across the country.
In addition, the government has not yet apprehended those who have made
billions in sugar and wheat scams. Then there are questions about
transparency in getting foreign loans and their use. Ever since this
government came to power in 2018, it has been on a relentless spree of
begging and borrowing; and the Covid-19 crisis is a useful excuse to keep
doing the same. Be it with the ADB, the IMF, the World Bank, and some
friendly countries showing their usual largesse, the practice must be above
board. That means all loans and taxes collected in the name of the
coronavirus must be utilized for the relief of the people in a transparent
manner. Lastly, we must stress once again that our resource allocation in the
next budget must make the development and welfare of people a primary
concern of the state. We must make it a welfare state rather than a security
state. Our negligence in providing health, education, potable water, sanitation,
power and infrastructure must become our priority in the wake of this corona
crisis. More than a super-corona tax, we need a post-corona policy which
must reflect our changed priorities in budget-making.
Worsening rights
thenews.com.pk/print/653707-worsening-rights

The annual report for the year 2019 by the Human Rights Commission of
Pakistan (HRCP) should serve as an eye-opener to those who fail to see the
worsening situation of human rights in Pakistan. An important message from
this report is that the most vulnerable segments of society are being
neglected and their voices are not heard. This has made their presence
invisible, though they are the ones who bear the brunt of most injustices in
society. Released on April 30, the HRCP report highlights that the weakest
segments of society have become victims of widespread economic
marginalization. This is in addition to the social exploitation they face across
the country. The report has also pointed out that the human rights record in
Pakistan continued its downward slide in 2019 and the situation has become
‘worrisome’, especially in the face of the ongoing pandemic of Covid-19. The
report warns us that the prospects for human rights in the country were
already bleak when the current pandemic cast its shadow. It is definitely a
cause of concern that HRCP has noticed ‘systematic curbs’ on political
dissent. These curbs are imposed by a continued chokehold on press
freedom. Apart from the curbs on media, there is also a persistent neglect of
economic and social rights in the country.

This year, the HRCP report is more detailed and focused as it offers separate
chapters on each province and other federating units that compose Pakistan.
Among the issues highlighted by the report, child abuse and forced labour by
underage youth figure prominently. There have been reports of child labourers
being assaulted, raped, murdered, and dumped, without such incidents
getting much attention in the mainstream media. Violence against women is
another frighteningly common occurrence across the country. They become
targets in the name of honour as Pakistani society becomes more and more
fixated with the concept of damaged or lost honours of male relatives. Punjab
has the disgraceful distinction of being at the top with the highest proportion
of ‘honour’ crimes. The HRCP report has also underscored the miserable
conditions of prisoners in overpopulated jails. As many journalists have
reported, they find it difficult to criticize state policy, as the space for free
expression on electronic, print, and social media has been eroded in an
organized manner. This is also linked with a deliberate financial squeeze on
the media which is being targeted and victimized in a selective manner.
Another cause of continued concern is the case of persons reported to be
‘missing’.

The HRCP has rightly recommended that the government must legislate to
criminalize enforced disappearances. Religious minorities have also seen
freedom of religion being eroded by both non-state and state measures.
There have been reports of desecration of worship places, forced conversions
of young women, and a perpetual discrimination in access to employment.
The report also calls for holding of local bodies elections in Balochistan,
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Punjab; Sindh being the only province where local
governments are functioning. The report’s suggestion for the restoration of
student and trade unions is also noteworthy. The government must take these
findings and recommendations seriously. The government must form a high-
level parliamentary committee with representation from all major parties to
look into the violations of human rights in the country. The federal ministry of
human rights must play a proactive role in this matter and take on board the
opposition members to explore and implement HRCP’s recommendations
and draft the required legislation.
Hinduphobia, Paracetamol, Kashmir and changed labour policy
dailytimes.com.pk/606831/hinduphobia-paracetamol-kashmir-and-changed-labour-policy

May 3, 2020

Change is inevitable. The harbinger of change has to be smart, timely and on

the lookout. This time around in the United Kingdom, there has been a change
in Labour leadership and Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB PC QC, has replaced
Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader. He identifies himself as a socialist and
defender of human rights everywhere. He has claimed in his letter to Hindu
Forum Britain (HFB), “I have fought all my life against injustices and to defend
human rights”. Be it so.

Muslims in general and Kashmiri community living in Britain in particular have

a cause to force a correction on the new Labour leader in regard to his failure
to understand and appreciate the Kashmir Question correctly and address the
Human Rights situation in Indian occupied Kashmir, at least in the manner, as
addressed in the three report of the United Nations.

Hindu Forum Britain have remained on the look out and have squeezed a shift
in labours policy on Kashmir and a rare admission of ‘Hinduphobia’ and
racism suffered by a ‘peaceful and loyal’ Hindu community of millions living in
the United Kingdom. HFB leadership has been able to further wrench a drop
of gratitude from the Labour leader, to India for selling the much needed
“PARACETAMOL during this difficult time”. It is for the first time that
‘Hinduphobia’ has been introduced in the British political vocabulary.

There is a lesson for Pakistani and Kashmiri Muslim community living in

Britain, that the new Labour Leader initiated a contact with the leadership of
Hindu Forum Britain (HFB), which has a claim of “representing more than 320
member organizations giving voice to the million strong Hindu community in
the UK.” HFB has an impressive representative face. It is headed by Mrs.
Trupti Patel FCIHT, MSc, BEng CE, MISTD. Who would not pay a respectful
heed to this Patel, when we have another Patel in the British Cabinet and
many more Hindus holding the key positions.
 This is an age of engagement and argument. Kashmiris have a better case to
argue. All available evidence of Indian non-compliance, aggression against the
people and re-occupying the habitat from 5 August need to be placed before the
Labour Leader

It is interesting to find that HFB did not rush into a meeting but decided to set
out a 3 point agenda in their letter of 8 April 2020. The letter cautioned the
Labour leader, “There are many issues of concern to the Hindu/Indian
community, for the purpose of this letter, suffice to say, the following three I
believe give us a good starting point for our proactive engagement, and a test
of whether you and the Labour Party are serious about such engagement”.
The three concerns have been identified as (1) Caste legislation, (2) Anti-India
stance and (3) Hinduphobia in the party.

What a smart way to charge on new Labour Leader and squeeze concessions
and gratitude from him. There could be merit in the issues raised but HFB has
been very mischievous to hide its real motive in agenda item 2, and have
squeezed a statement of their choice on Kashmir from Keir Starmer. There is
an uproar in British Kashmiri and Pakistani community on the major shift in
labour party. Pakistanis and Kashmiris in Britain are a numerical force and
could offer any electoral challenge to any political party. Unfortunately this
number has not been translated into a quality representation, to keep the
merits of their case, in particular ‘Islamophobia’, ‘Human Rights Situation’ in
Indian occupied Kashmir and the delay in UN supervised Plebiscite in Jammu
and Kashmir. We have a very poor and mediocre leadership, which has been ill
handling the Kashmir case.

Labour Leader is no cousin of HFB or a cousin of Pakistani-Kashmiri

community either. We should not be irked by his understanding on Kashmir.
We should not interfere in his understanding of Caste legislation and
Hinduphobia. However, we have a right to challenge his understanding of
Kashmir case and convince him to fix it.
Keir Starmer, although a QC, seems to be sitting on the wrong table to
understand Kashmir. Even majority or may be all the 320 Hindu organizations,
may not have the right understanding of Kashmir case. Starmer’s statement
on Kashmir, that it was a “Constitutional Matter for Indian Parliament” and a
“Bilateral Issue for India and Pakistan”, is incorrect at core. One has to be fair
to one’s opponent. I would say even 80% Pakistanis and Kashmiris also do not
have a reliable knowledge of Kashmir case and an understanding of the UN
Resolutions on Kashmir. We have also sinned against the people of Kashmir
as Keir Starmer has sinned at this point.

JKCHR has done a report titled, “Indian Actions of 5 August and 31 October
2019 – Our Options”. It answers all these questions and answers Keir Starmer
as well. India and Pakistan have both admitted on 31 December 1947 and 15
January 1948 that they have tried under article 33 of UN Charter a bilateral
engagement on Kashmir and have failed. As a consequence both petitioned
the UN Security Council under article 35 of UN Charter. Labour Prime Minister
in his telegram on 22 November 1947, has proposed to the Prime Minister of
Pakistan, if the latter would consider taking the matter to ICJ.

Labour Leader should be open to a counter argument from Kashmiris and

Pakistanis on the issue of Kashmir. Two citations would be enough, to force
Keir Starmer to correct his position. Firstly United Kingdom has argued at the
284th meeting of UN Security Council held on 17 April 1948 that Kashmir was
“the greatest and gravest single issue in international affairs”. Secondly, India
has conceded at the 533rd meeting of the UN SC held on 01 March 195, that
“The people of Kashmir are not mere chattels to be disposed of according to
a rigid formula; their future must be decided in their own interests and in
accordance with their own desires”. A UN supervised Plebiscite has been
agreed.

This is an age of engagement and argument. Kashmiris have a better case to

argue. All available evidence of Indian non-compliance, aggression against
the people and re-occupying the habitat from 5 August need to be placed
before the Labour Leader. He is no cousin of HFB to award them a favour.
Merits of Kashmir case would prevail.

The author is President of London based Jammu and Kashmir Council for
Human Rights – NGO in Special Consultative Status with the United Nations
Cooptation or back to pre-westphalia period
dailytimes.com.pk/606822/cooptation-or-back-to-pre-westphalia-period

May 3, 2020

Europe graduated from Medieval times by putting an end to senseless

competition and conflicts of Roman Empire. The expectation was that society
will move toward a more stable and secure period. It will help to create
prosperity for people. The expectation was originated due to three very
important reasons, 1) technological development especially in the field of
agriculture and production, 2) end of useless wars and 3) limitation to the role
of Church. Unfortunately, the medieval time was followed by another series of
wars and conflicts. The prominent wars were eighty years of war between
Spain and Dutch and 30 years’ war in Roman Empire. The major powers
continued to fight for dominance and to undermine others. Wars introduced
destruction and rupture of European society. It led to destruction of
productive resources and hundreds of thousands of people lost life.

The wars concluded with Westphalia Treaty. The participating countries

agreed to respect each other’s sovereignty and rights. It set the precedent for
diplomatic solution to wars and conflicts. It gave chance to countries to
concentrate on the development and prosperity of people. The Europe started
to flourish. However, it was not good news for Asia and Africa. European
countries started to invade Asian and African countries and process of
colonization started. The raw material from Asia and Africa strengthened the
industrial base of Europe. It also led to the process of slave keeping. Africa
was particular target for enslaving people. The process continued till the
conclusion of Second World War.

The destruction of World War-I and II compelled the countries to think about
new means of engagement and peace. The winner of war USA led coalition
introduced the concept of joint working, resources pooling and cooperation.
Cooperation emerged as key word and actor to promote development across
the world. USA generously contributed and shared its resources and market
with other countries. The Marshall Plan was introduced to help the war-torn
Europe and other countries. Although it excluded the communist bloc, but it
helped many countries to develop.

Europe continued to ride on the wave and jump from one state of
development to other. The good point was that it also continued to help other
countries and tried to help its past colonies. The process helped many
countries from Asia and Africa. Many countries started the journey of
development due to help of Europe. However, the biggest success was
creation of a unified Europe, in the form of European Union (EU). It is serving
as an example for many other regions and they are trying to follow the foot
steps like ASEAN, SAARC etc.

The inclusion of fiscal side is very important for the sustainability of EU. The
lessons can be drawn form United States of America, which is monetary and
fiscal union

However, during the last few years EU is facing immense pressure due to
multiple reasons. The rise of right-wing politicians across the Europe has
started to criticized EU. Right wing or nationalists are criticizing EU for weak
policy on migration, poverty and in-equality. It is a rising trend and presenting
a serious challenge to the unity of EU. The low performance on economic
front is further giving impetus to nationalist movements. The rise of Nazi like
party in Germany is worrisome. Although the leadership is trying to mitigate
the impact and control the spread, but it will take time to reverse the process.
BREXIT has shaken the whole structure of EU and it is struggling to cope the
challenge.

These challenges present few lessons for Europe, which required attention
from European leadership. The first lesson is that, economic system must
ensure the trickle down of benefits at wider level. The failure to share benefits
leads toward in-equality, which ultimately result in disintegration of political
leadership. Second, the monetary union alone cannot serve the purpose in
long term. It creates problems among the countries on economic and social
fronts. Third, sharing and cooperation are key areas, which must be
continued. Division only leads toward weakening of alliances.

EU will have to work on these fronts, if it wants to combat the challenges and
pressure. First of all, the trickle-down theory needs to be revised. There is
need of some new instrument, which can help to share benefits of
development at wider scale. There is need to look for new economic tools,
may be new economic system like social capitalism. The concept has good
understanding among scholars and experts in Germany. Germany, without
mentioning it, has adopted few elements of it like involvement of private
sector in dual system of skill development or education. It provides
opportunity to marginalized to get better chances of livelihoods. It is helping
Germany to contain in-equality and provide decent livelihoods to people at
wider scale.

Moreover, the structure and nature of union of EU needs to be revised or

expanded. The monetary union leaves many countries at risk, as they cannot
compete with strong countries in union. The free mobility of products in union
impact the low competitive countries and bigger countries benefit from it.
Besides, big countries do not have any obligation on fiscal or social front so
weak countries suffer more. The situation become further aggravated when
countries with fiscal problem do not have space to decide on monetary
policies and has to follow the EU policies. Hence, there is need to expand the
scope of EU. The inclusion of fiscal side is very important for the
sustainability of EU. The lessons can be drawn form United States of America,
which is monetary and fiscal union. EU can look at this model but with
different angle, as in EU all members are sovereign states. EU can pick few
good practices from USA model and try to adopt it.

Cooperation and benefit sharing are other areas which needs focus from all
member states. Cooperation is key and detrimental factor for ensuring the
sustainability of EU. It was cooperation and benefit sharing which led to
peaceful co-existence in Europe. Unfortunately, EU is facing problem on this
front. COVID-19 has further aggravated the situation. Some member states
are openly criticizing EU and shows their discomfort. There is need to
rediscover the spirit of cooperation. The big and rich countries like Germany,
France, Norway etc. will have to take lead and devise tools to foster the
cooperation and mitigate the negativity. Otherwise, the friction or negativity
will lead to more complications. The worst-case scenario will be that Europe
go back to pre-Westphalia period. Although the probability of this scenario is
negligible but once the events start to happen then no one have control on
consequences. Hence ,it is wise to nip the evil in bud and only way to do that
is EU foster cooperation and benefit sharing.

The writer is Director, Asia Study Center SDPI

Market expectations
dailytimes.com.pk/606849/market-expectations

May 3, 2020

Global markets seemed to detach themselves from facts and fundamentals

last week as they exhibited a rare gasp for air even as growth in the world’s
largest economies, US, China and EU, plummeted to lows not seen in
decades. All they seemed to care about was the partial reopening of
economies in a number of parts of the world, from the Northern American
continent right down to the extremities of Asia Pacific in Australia and New
Zealand. And the sentiment makes sense once you thing about it, even
though it left market pundits scratching their heads in the initial phase of the
movement.

Yet there is good reason to be very cautious as this could well be what is
known to traders as a bear market bounce. There’s no way of telling if these
reopenings will be successful no matter how carefully everybody follows
Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) put in place by all governments. There
was a setback from Germany, even though it was last week, because the
spread of the coronavirus picked up speed as soon as they flirted with
opening the economy. Now, there is hope that once people start earning once
again, the economy would pick up and there would no more be any danger of
people running out of savings or, for the lesser privileged, starving to death.
Besides, if everything is done carefully, all that exposure might well end up
helping everybody build some sort of herd immunity; which is quite frankly the
only thing that will help people get over the coronavirus because there’s still a
slim chance at best of a vaccine anytime soon.

On the flip side, though, there’s also the chance of what happened in Germany
amplifying all over the world. Surely markets would not defy any
fundamentals in that case and there’s only one way they would go if a large
number of people going back to work end up in hospitals needing ventilators
in numbers that will require ramping up production across the world. The
markets, therefore, are only betraying the same frustration that state, county,
province and country leaders are feeling in practically all corners of the world.
As much as it is important to keep the world locked down for a while longer, it
is just not possible for reasons that have been detailed by everybody,
everywhere. The only solution, realistically, is enforcing water tight SOPs and
then just gambling with it. As to how that will turn out, another look at the
markets at the same time next week will tell a lot. *
A word about press freedom
dailytimes.com.pk/606852/a-word-about-press-freedom

May 3, 2020

There’s obviously little to connect how the press works in any particular
country and how the government of that country wants to deck up its
information ministry. So there is clearly nothing strange about the government
shuffling, rather re-shuffling, information ministry bigwigs when the world
press freedom day was just around the corner. Yet it is rather strange that the
world press freedom day came and went with the government barely
bothering to notice it beyond the usual motions that it simply must go through
just as a matter of protocol. And that, of course, is because of the peculiar
relationship this government has had with the press ever since it came to
power.

Of course it is not possible to dissect the PTI-press relationship in only the

time that Imran Khan has been prime minister. Going back a good 22 years,
during which the present PM grew from a political non-entity to the present
PM, it wouldn’t be possible to find one person in this Islamic Republic, from
within or outside PTI, who would not consider the media the single biggest
contributory factor in Khan’s rise. Needless to say that an ever growing
number of people also believes that the media did all it could to prop up Khan,
yet he only ascended to the throne when he played right with the right people,
but that is a debate for another occasion.

The present government will soon hit its half way mark. Yet it must be said
that, contrary to expectations, so far it has put more hurdles in the way of the
free press – which is surprising precisely because the PM rode the press all
the way to the PM house – than perhaps even the worst type of dictators we
have seen; those who decided to stay at the top, because they could, for far
longer than PTI’s couple of years in power so far. And while practically all
newsrooms in the country will testify to the degree with which this
government has clamped down on the media, a far more important question
is why it has chosen to do so. Did Imran Khan and his allies, most of whom
have been imported from other parties he never tired of criticising, really
believe that the press would put lipstick on everything they do just because
it’s them that’s doing it?

Indeed the burden of command has exposed much about the present
dispensation; chief among the defects being a very small appetite for facts
when it is called for doing exactly what it spent more than two decades
attacking very fiercely. There are lessons here that PTI would do well to learn
from. *
Pandemic and political change in America
tribune.com.pk/story/2213290/6-pandemic-political-change-america

May 4, 2020

By shahid javed burki

May.04,2020

US reaction to Covid-19 was to greatly expand the role of govt and the govt’s presence in the
lives of people

Do pandemics that take a lot of lives, make millions of people sick and cause
major disruptions in their lives bring about lasting political change? Do they
change the relationship people have with their government? Historians are
debating the answers to these questions but have not found those on which
they can agree. To take one example: “If history is any guide, not much will
change in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis,” writes Nancy Bristow, chair of the
history department at the University of Puget Sound who has written a book,
American Pandemic: The Lost Words of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic. “During
the influenza scourge of 1918, disorder was everywhere: As one American
letter writer suggested, ‘The whole world seems up-side down.’ Roughly one in
four Americans caught the disease, and as many as 2.5 percent of them died.
Almost half the fatalities were people between 20 and 40 years old — the very
adults relied on as parents, breadwinners, leaders.” This was indeed a major
event that touched everybody but nothing much changed. “The pandemic did
not disturb the social and economic inequities it had made visible. And yet,
while knowledge of the past is essential to understanding the present, history
is rarely a reliable predictor of the future. We need not repeat the mistakes of
those who came before.”

However, other historians and academics have come to an entirely different

conclusion. According to Viet Thanh Nguyen, a Vietnamese-American, the
change that is coming will be profound and palpable. He wrote one of the
several articles The New York Times assembled to have academics and policy
analysts reflect on how the Covid-19 pandemic might or might not change
America’s social fabric and with it that of the world. “If anything good comes
out of this period it might be an awakening to the pre-existing conditions of
our body politic. We were not as healthy as we thought we were. The
biological virus that afflicted individuals is also a social virus. Its symptoms —
inequality, callousness, selfishness and a profit motive that undervalues
commodities — were for too long masked by the hearty good cheer of
American exceptionalism, the ruddiness of someone few steps away from a
heart attack. The America as we know it can hardy emerge unscathed.”

Nguyen’s view of America — the opportunities the country, and, yes, its society
offers — can be reduced in scope by short-sighted and bigoted leaders such
as President Donald Trump. He has fixed his hostile gaze at all those who do
not fit his view of what American and Americans should be. Nguyen
understands this but believes that America and the Americans would not
succumb to the President’s designs. “But if our society looks the same after
the defeat of Covid-19, it will be a Pyrrhic victory. We can expect a sequel, and
not just one sequel, but many, until we reach the finale: climate catastrophe. If
our fumbling of the coronavirus is a preview of how the United States will
handle that disaster, then we are doomed.”

It is revealing that while the Trump administration was making a mess of the
way it was handling the crisis, unable to develop a national approach towards
testing and tracing in order to understand the extent to which the pandemic
had gripped society. Trump did what he does well: he tried to change the
subject from anger at the government to anger aimed at outsiders — first
China and then immigrants to the US. He announced a major change in the
country’s immigration policy. On April 26, he issued a presidential order that
banned the issue of “green cards” that allowed foreigners to enter the country
in the hope of eventually becoming citizens. Stephen Miller, his adviser who
had lasted the longest in the White House, was the architect of this policy. In a
talk with the press, he promised that more would follow.

In order to understand the mood of the population as a background for the

essays it published on how America might change, The New York Times
joined hands with the Centre for Experimental Research on Fairness,
Inequality and Rationality and surveyed 8,000 Americans between March 18
and April 2. The exercise produced a number of surprising results and a
paradox. The pandemic had increased feelings of solidarity with others, but
people also accepted that inequalities were caused by luck. Solidarity may
sharpen the focus on the more vulnerable groups in society but the
assignment of a big role to luck may undermine efforts to support public
policies aimed at reducing inequalities. To understand how the people’s moral
perspective influenced their thinking about the crisis, researchers used the
technique called “priming” by psychologists. They asked half of the group
surveyed how the coronavirus crisis had affected their communities. Those
primed to think about the crisis were more likely to focus on society’s
problems.
The study did not clearly conclude whether the effect on people’s moral
perspective would prove to be lasting. But related research on wars, natural
disasters and economic shocks has shown that people internalise moral
perspectives that emerge in crises. Exposure to violence makes people show
more solidarity in the long run, even once the violence has abated.

The American reaction to the coronavirus crisis was to greatly expand the role
of the government and the government’s presence in the lives of people. By
April 24, Washington had authorised more than $2.35 trillion to help the
workers and industries affected by the lockdowns. This came in the form of
bills passed by Congress and signed by President Trump. Congress approved
three bills and more were on their way. These included an $8 billion
emergency measure to finance vaccine research and local preparedness; the
Families First Coronavirus Response Act costing nearly $200 billion; and the
Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act that will cost more than $2
trillion. Together these measures equal slightly more than 10% of America’s
GDP. This effort, which is still not complete, is considerably greater than the
one made to rescue the economy after the Great Recession of 2008-09.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank had resurrected and expanded the
playbook it had used to handle the 2008 Great Recession. The central bank
was injecting an estimated $4 trillion into the economy. It also appears that
the fixation for reducing the size of the government and its reach to the
people society had left behind that president Ronald Reagan brought to
Washington and the approach that Donald Trump and his associates have
pursued may have run its course. Even the Republican Party may be willing to
provide a more active role to the American state.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 4th, 2020.

LGs in Punjab
tribune.com.pk/story/2213298/6-lgs-in-punjab

May 4, 2020

By editorial
May.04,2020

The decision about UCs and the idea of ‘Tiger Force’ indicate that all is not well

Sometimes government decisions leave people both bewildered and

bemused. A few days ago, the Punjab government announced that the
defunct union councils would discontinue public services from May 1. The
Punjab Local Government and Community Development Department has
intimated all deputy commissioners, designated as the heads of District
Transition Teams of their districts, in this connection through a notification.
The notification, inter alia, said the services rendered by the union councils up
to April 30 this year would be subject to ‘audit and administrative scrutiny’.
This decision, seen together with a series of earlier decisions relating to local
governments, raises intriguing questions.

CM Usman Buzdar deferred the local body elections due to the situation in the
wake of the coronavirus pandemic. In May 2019, the Local Government
system, constituted under the Punjab Local Government Act of 2013, was
replaced by the Punjab Local Government Act of 2019, and under the new law,
all local governments were dissolved and elected representatives were sent
packing. Around 33 petitions have been filed in the Lahore High Court
challenging the dissolution of the local bodies, but it has not conducted
hearings for the past several months. The latest decision would add to the
problems of the people besides causing consternation. Also, there are reports
the next LG elections in Punjab would be held on non-party basis.

The government has come in for scathing criticism from the opposition. The
decision is raising intriguing questions about the intentions of the
government especially because of the timing and circumstances surrounding
it. Observers say it shows things are not going smoothly for the PTI
government. Several political bigwigs are facing NAB cases. They are likely
making behind-the-scenes moves to influence the course of politics to get out
of their predicament. There is the ‘political loneliness and idleness’ of the
once ‘active’ Shehbaz Sharif. The decision about UCs and the idea of ‘Tiger
Force’ indicate that all is not well.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 4th, 2020.

Inescapable cycle
tribune.com.pk/story/2213287/6-inescapable-cycle

May 4, 2020

By editorial
May.04,2020

Certain actions and reactions lock rival nations on a course that grows harder and harder to
change

When it comes to international relations, nothing quite pushes the mind to

anxiety like defence spending. Perhaps it is the immediacy of its violent
potential that triggers a slight tinge of panic. Merely imagining the images of
war is enough to convince one that the tools to wage it are a bad idea. Even
so, as bitter as the pill may be to swallow, spending on defensive capabilities
is an inevitability for some nations at least. In an ideal world we would all get
along but the ideal exists only in the imagination.

The problem to deal with when designing defence policies is the problem of
information. As various internal and external pressures driving competing
states’ leaders to certain actions, it becomes virtually impossible to figure out
intentions even in the best of cases. And then there is fact that one nation’s
actions are seldom perceived by another as the former intended.

The annual report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

(Sipri) revealed that India last year moved to the third spot on the list of the
world’s biggest military spenders, behind just the US and China. Although its
military budget actually contracted as a percentage of its overall outlay, the
development nonetheless shows where New Delhi’s ambitions lie. Some of it
may be chalked down to Narendra Modi’s personal obsessions, but as last
year’s misadventure revealed, much of India’s populace too supports a more
belligerent approach to the region.

The Sipri report also revealed that Pakistan’s own defence spending has risen
by 70 per cent over the course of the previous decade. Last year, it was one of
the four countries outside of the Middle East to spend over four per cent of its
GDP on defence. Until February last year, it would have been easier to be
critical about this. But certain actions and reactions lock rival nations on a
course that grows harder and harder to change.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 4th, 2020.

Under growing threat
tribune.com.pk/story/2213301/6-under-growing-threat

May 4, 2020

By editorial
May.04,2020

While the lockdowns have immensely impacted the economy, there are ways to allow the
economy to reopen

Startling information about the working conditions for our frontline soldiers in
the war against the Covid-19 coronavirus has been revealed by the National
Emergency Operation Centre. At least 444 healthcare workers have tested
positive for the virus, 191 of which came in the past week alone. Over 100
each belong to Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. By April 29, at least 216
doctors, 67 nurses and 161 other healthcare staffers had tested positive,
including 138 that required hospitalisation. At least eight deaths have also
been reported from Sindh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa,
and Islamabad.

The government’s claims of concern for healthcare workers are looking even
emptier than before. While doctors are protesting over the unavailability of
personal protective equipment (PPE), Special Assistant to the Prime Minister
on Health Dr Zafar Mirza claimed on Thursday that the government was
“worried about medical workers” and would soon launch a programme for
their protection. For at least eight healthcare workers, it will not be soon
enough.

The SAPM also claimed that the government is providing PPE but it “not being
used rationally”. He topped this off by saying the government “will train
medics on the proper use of PPE.” This means the government believes that
supply shortages is not a problem, but rather that medical professionals do
not know how to use medical equipment. Either Mirza, himself a medical
doctor, has gone all-in to defend the government’s failure, or he is telling the
truth, and our doctors are terribly trained. Neither scenario has any silver
lining.

Still, we are inclined to believe the former, especially since the federal
government’s handling of the quarantine has been astoundingly erratic. Even
the PM doesn’t appear to agree to the policies he is signing off on. While the
lockdowns have immensely impacted the economy, there are ways to allow
the economy to reopen while enforcing social distancing. Doctors are divided
on this, but generally, they have been more concerned by the people’s refusal
to follow quarantine and distancing rules during the lockdown. If the
government could actually get citizens to act as responsible citizens, maybe it
would not need to complain about its own lockdown.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 4th, 2020.

The need for telemedicine
tribune.com.pk/story/2213289/6-the-need-for-telemedicine

May 4, 2020

By raja khalid shabbir

May.04,2020

There is a long way before online healthcare becomes mainstream in Pakistan

The Covid-19 outbreak has taken over the world in a deadly manner. For
Pakistan, the scenario is still not as bad as it could have been. Let’s take this
opportunity to reflect on the need of online healthcare service in Pakistan.

OPDs in government hospitals across Punjab, the potential site of maximum

patient-to-patient contact, are in full swing. Every patient is accompanied by
at least two to four family members. In case of patients who are retained in
the emergency departments, the number of attendants per patient range from
two to 10. We are deep into the coronavirus crisis but the concept of social
distancing and staying at home has failed in our society and is risking the
virus spread.

It is reported that only one doctor is available for every 6,325 people in
Pakistan. Every year, we produce thousands of new doctors, and yet the
disproportionate doctor-patient ratio, as these doctors are lost to flawed
health policies and move to better health systems abroad.

A national healthcare system is only as strong as the primary and secondary

healthcare level, which in Pakistan, comprises basic health units (BHU), rural
health centres and district headquarters. These centres are deficient in
medical facilities and manpower which forces a large rural patient population
to tertiary care hospitals in big cities. These facilities cannot cater to the
patient load coming in from peripheral areas in a time when the Covid-19
threat is at its peak.

Out of the hundreds who visit the emergency of public hospitals every day,
only 40% are serious cases. The remaining are non-emergency (OPD) cases
which unnecessarily overcrowd emergency rooms in a time when anyone
could be a Covid-19 carrier.

Since the lockdown was never an option for Prime Minister Imran Khan and
social distancing campaigns have not generated the response they should
have, there is an urgent need to introduce telemedicine or an online
healthcare system.

Electronic communication has revolutionised services like banking and

shopping. It is time medical care in Pakistan also entered the digital world.

Telemedicine uses the concept of health information and communication

technology to overcome geographical barriers and provide standardised
healthcare to areas where corporeal medical facilities are unavailable.
A large population of female doctors in Pakistan have to quit their jobs after
marriage. Telemedicine can provide them an opportunity to restart their
careers within the confines of their homes. This online approach also takes
care of anonymity, particularly of female patients with gynaecological issues
who do not want to reveal their identity.

There is a long way before online healthcare becomes mainstream in

Pakistan, but if given due attention it has the potential of growing into a
system where video consultation services, and electronic transmission of
laboratory, imaging and healthcare informatics between doctors and patients
could be made possible. Patients who are bed-bound and white-collar
syndrome patients (who avoid hospitals because of anxiety and phobia)
would be better managed online. Eventually, the overall cost of healthcare
would also be controlled.

Mass storage of medical records, real-time monitoring of blood pressure or

sugar level of patients residing far away from hospitals can be done along
with therapeutic adjustments, thus leading to better disease outcome.

An online healthcare system can aid our people during times like these.
Covid-19 patients can be kept in isolation, treated and monitored digitally
without putting healthcare workers in direct contact with the patient. It would
also help decrease patient load in hospitals.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has stated that provision of efficient
and effective online medical services is the solution to many of the health
problems prevalent in developing countries. Health organisations in our
country should invest in integrated digital healthcare so that we are better
equipped to counter deadly contagious infections such as Covid-19 and so
that ‘healthcare for all’ becomes a reality.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 4th, 2020.

Covid-19 and conspiracy theories
tribune.com.pk/story/2213300/6-covid-19-conspiracy-theories

May 4, 2020

By kamran yousaf
May.04,2020

A clear and loud messaging is needed from the leadership, which so far has only sent
confused signals to the masses

The number of coronavirus cases continues to climb globally — and so do the

deaths. The virus is still spreading and the World Health Organisation (WHO)
has warned that the worst is yet to come. While frantic efforts are underway
in several parts of the world to produce a vaccine that can control the
pandemic, a host of conspiracy theories are also doing rounds. The US and
China have clashed over the origin of the virus. The US has repeatedly said
the virus was originated from China’s Wuhan city. China, however, disputes
the claim and is adamant that the virus was present in the US much before it
was reported in China.

Amid all these wild guesses, in a rare public statement, the Office of the US
Director of National Intelligence, which oversees American spy agencies, has
said it concurs with the “wide scientific consensus” regarding Covid-19’s
natural origins.

“The intelligence community will continue to rigorously examine emerging

information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began
through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at
a laboratory in Wuhan.”

It was the first clear response from American intelligence debunking

conspiracy theories — both from the US and China — that the virus is a
bioweapon. But President Trump appears to have undercut his own
intelligence agencies by suggesting that he has seen the evidence that the
coronavirus originated in a Chinese laboratory.

Some Chinese officials on the other hand claim that the US military brought
the virus to Wuhan in October last year. One conjecture is that the US through
the virus wanted to halt the economic rise of China.

In countries like Pakistan, these conspiracies theories have gone even deeper.
Some believe it is part of a grand plan to stop Muslims from going to
mosques. Others tend to think that the world powers have decided to control
the growing world population, and hence the virus. There is one section in
Pakistan which believes that there is no disease such as Covid-19. These
people think that reports about people dying of coronavirus are not true; and
people are dying because of natural causes but their deaths are being linked
to the virus in order to create a scare in the world.
If for a while, we believe that there is no such thing as the coronavirus, then
why are so many Pakistanis living in Europe and the US becoming its victim?
Are they too dying because of natural causes? Why are our doctors and
paramedics falling victim to the deadly virus? Are National Assembly Speaker
Asad Qaiser and Sindh Governor Imran Ismail merely pretending that they
have tested positive for the coronavirus?

And remember the economic and social cost of this virus. The world
economy is facing the worst crisis since the Great Depression of 1930s. In
the US alone, over 30 million people have applied for unemployment benefits,
and the number is increasing. The impact of Covid-19 on the global oil
industry is even profound. The prices of oil have plummeted to a record low
since there is no demand and the storage capacity is near full.

The result of these conspiracies theories is that the people in Pakistan,

including the educated lot, are not taking the coronavirus threat seriously. We
need to educate our people that if this virus spreads as it has in Europe or the
US, its impact would be far more devastating than in developed countries.
Conspiracies theories are good for drawing room discussions or debates on
social media but it no time for complacency. A clear and loud messaging is
needed from the leadership, which so far has only sent confused signals to
the masses.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 4th, 2020.

 TODAY'S PAPER | MAY 04, 2020

PIA: living in denial

Editorial | May 04, 2020

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dawnnewseditorials
showing signs of impatience with some of these groups, especially the one representing
the airline’s pilots, for some time. Indeed, almost all these associations were without
legal bargaining rights and operated as pressure groups to protect the interests of the
company’s officers and other staffers including pilots, cabin crew, engineers, etc who
were not represented as such by the Collective Bargaining Agent. So for the time being
these groups no longer enjoy quasi-legal, collective representation unless a court
grants them relief against their employer’s decision.

The airline made the decision a day after the government placed it under the Pakistan
Essential Services (Maintenance) Act, 1952, for six months to allow it to rescue, evacuate and
repatriate thousands of Pakistanis still stranded in different countries. The government and
the PIA management evidently felt that the persistent demands of pilots and cabin crew for
better safety measures in accordance with the requirements of social distancing for the
security of both staff and passengers had been hampering efforts to bring back stranded
Pakistanis. Once it was declared an essential service, it became easier for the airline to
revoke agreements and derecognise these associations. The presence of these groups is often
cited by policymakers and successive airline administrations as a major reason for the
declineTHE
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The suppression of trade unions and banishment of such associations will only add to the
woes of these enterprises.

Published in Dawn, May 4th, 2020

 Like our Facebook page
www.facebook.com/dawnnewseditorials

TODAY'S PAPER | MAY 04, 2020

HRCP report
Editorial | May 04, 2020

FOR far too many, life is a series of insurmountable challenges that prevent a full
realisation of individual potential. In its latest annual flagship report, the Human
Rights Commission of Pakistan has again shone an unflinching light on the slew of
injustices visited upon society’s most vulnerable citizens. The fact is, Pakistan
continues to fall short in protecting women, children, members of religious minorities,
etc. Instead of strengthening institutions and implementing rights-based legislation,
the state tends to respond reactively to isolated incidents, that is, if they provoke a
certain level of public outrage. Such an approach does not facilitate systemic change.
Sadly, human rights do not figure at the top of the state’s priorities. Consider that the
National Commission for Human Rights is lying dysfunctional since last May. That said,
in a departure from the past, the government has not rejected its contents out of hand.
While listing some of its achievements in the human rights arena, it has candidly
acknowledged that rights violations in several respects remain unacceptably high.

Archaic notions of honour continue to fuel all manner of violence against women, and
prevent their unfettered access to health, education and employment. Pro-women legislation
has been on the statute books for years now, but the centre and provinces have shown
unforgivable laxity in putting those laws into practice. Sexual abuse of minors is coming to
light in ever more horrific forms, such as child labourers being victimised in mines in
Balochistan. The newly enacted Zainab Alert law will hopefully to some extent serve its
purpose in tracing abducted minors, if it is properly implemented. Child labour laws are
flouted with impunity, and cases of horribly abused minor domestic workers create only a
temporary stir. Forced conversions of members of religious minorities continue unabated,
and for one community in particular, the freedom to worship exists in name alone. Access to
justice remains elusive for the people, with close to 1.8m cases pending before the court.
While model criminal trial courts introduced in 2019 disposed of many cases swiftly, long-
term criminal justice reforms are still awaited. Resolution of enforced disappearances moves
at a glacial pace, if at all. Civil society must be steadfast in pushing back against regressive
and anti-democratic elements. Curbs on freedom of opinion and expression only serve those
who want a fragmented society closed to reason, unwilling to debate — and all the more
easy to control.

Published in Dawn, May 4th, 2020

 TODAY'S PAPER | MAY 04, 2020

Risk to medics
Editorial | May 04, 2020

CORONAVIRUS infections among hospital staff in the country have risen at an alarming
rate. According to data shared by the National Emergency Operation Centre on
Thursday, almost 191 more healthcare providers tested positive for Covid-19 within a
week — a 75pc jump from the previous week, taking the number of confirmed
healthcare worker cases to almost 450. Nearly a quarter of this staff was working in
critical care units, whereas the majority was attending to patients in other wards of the
hospital. With the highest confirmed cases of health workers reported in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, Balochistan and Sindh are not too far behind. While there is
some relief that one-fifth of those infected have recovered, the situation remains
serious as, since the end of February, at least nine medical professionals have
succumbed to the virus.

The figures paint a grim picture. Each statistic for active cases of healthcare workers
represents a doctor, nurse or other hospital staff member who is now in isolation, at home
or quarantined in hospital. Not only does this mean that there are less medical workers
attending to patients, it is also a huge blow to the morale and mental health of the medical
community. These individuals, at great personal risk, don their masks and gloves every day
to engage with confirmed Covid-19 patients and, at times, have to watch their patients die.
Though living through dread and fear, these heroes continue to show up and be the
backbone of our healthcare system even as they face an epidemic of stress.

The government must do everything in its power to protect our healthcare workers. Priority
must be given to manufacturing or procuring personal protective equipment; ramping up
daily testing — which is still less than half of the targeted 25,000 — and training healthcare
staff on how to limit the spread of the virus inside the hospital through strict protocols.
Unfortunately, doctors in almost all the provinces have either taken to the streets to protest
the lack of PPE or shared their fears with journalists. Last month’s scenes of doctors
protesting the lack of equipment in Quetta, and being baton-charged by police were ghastly.
The federal and provincial governments must plan ahead and ensure that such savage
episodes are never repeated. Doctors’ pleas to authorities for better protection and restricted
public movement must not go unnoticed. Top officials should engage with the healthcare
community to understand and address their concerns. Finally, if the rate of infections among
medical workers continues to grow, the government must not be defensive about an
extension in the lockdown. The prime minister is right to note that Pakistan’s cases are not
as bad as those of Italy and the UK. But he should not forget that our healthcare system is
also far less sophisticated and developed than the one in those countries.

Published in Dawn, May 4th, 2020

ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD

 TODAY'S PAPER | MAY 04, 2020

Troubled peace process

Maleeha Lodhi | May 04, 2020

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.

A WIDELY asked question about Afghanistan today is whether Covid-19 would slow
down or accelerate its tenuous peace process. The simple answer is that the stalled
process has little to do with the pandemic and everything to do with the clashing
interests of Afghan parties and their inability to break the persisting deadlock on
initiating an intra-Afghan dialogue.

What the coronavirus outbreak has not done so far is to significantly affect the phased US
withdrawal from Afghanistan. It may even be an additional incentive for Washington to
stick to its drawdown plan irrespective of progress towards an intra-Afghan dialogue that
can produce a negotiated end to the country’s long war. Indications are that the US
drawdown from Afghanistan is proceeding as pledged in the US-Taliban agreement reached
in Doha in February; American troops are supposed to reduce to 8,600 by this summer. Some
reports suggest that some bases are already being cleared with US forces departing.

Meanwhile, top American diplomats have continued to urge the Afghan parties — the
government and the Taliban – to show flexibility to break the stalemate over the prisoner
swap, the principal obstacle to starting intra-Afghan negotiations. Under the Doha
agreement both sides had to release a specific number of detainees in their custody — 5,000
held by Kabul and 1,000 in Taliban custody. On the completion of this, an intra-Afghan
process was to begin about eight weeks ago. This never happened.

US election year makes bringing troops

home top priority.

So far around 550 prisoners have been released by the Afghan government and 112 by the
Taliban. The rest of the exchange has come to a halt over disagreements about its terms. The
Taliban say that the release of all detainees on their list is a pre-condition for intra-Afghan
peace talks. They accuse Kabul of deliberate delay and demand the immediate release of
detainees because of Covid-19.

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On his part, President Ashraf Ghani insists on a reduction in violence before he frees more
prisoners. He says he is willing to initially free only 1,500 but in a gradual way. This has been
construed by many as a machination by Ghani to use the issue — his principal bargaining
leverage at this point — to drag out the whole process. This view is reinforced by his efforts
to also enlist certain regional powers who have little interest in seeing the Doha process
succeed. One regional state is in fact seeking a parallel peace process. The Taliban have
continued to argue that any ceasefire has to be a part and not a precursor to intra-Afghan
negotiations.

US diplomatic efforts to overcome the impasse has seen engagement at the highest level by
Washington. President Donald Trump’s recent phone call to the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim
bin Hamad al-Thani and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s late March visit to Kabul all
reflect these endeavours. So was a visit last month to Pakistan and the meeting with army
chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa by US special representative Zalmay Khalilzad and Gen Austin
Miller, US and Nato forces commander in Afghanistan.

With violence on the uptick in Afghanistan, the aim of the parleys in Rawalpindi was to seek
Pakistan’s help on different aspects of the peace process including a reduction of violence in
line with Pakistan’s commitment to a political solution of the Afghan conflict. Intensification
of fighting in Afghanistan and rejection by the Taliban of calls for a Ramazan ceasefire has
sent worried American officials scurrying to try to prevent the Taliban’s stepped-up attacks
on Afghan National Security Forces from further weakening them. The Taliban’s intensified
attacks are aimed at mounting military pressure to strengthen their negotiating hand in
intra-Afghan talks while hoping that this can precipitate the ANSF’s collapse or its ethnic
fragmentation.

This strategy has been met by escalation in US-backed ANSF attacks on the Taliban. This has
prompted accusations from the Taliban that the US, by attacking non-combat areas, is not
abiding by the Feb 29 deal. A recently released UN report voices grave concern about the
surge in violence in March and the consequent rise in civilian casualties.

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The US diplomatic effort is now focused on persuading the Taliban to settle for the release of
2,000 prisoners (rather than 5,000) by Ghani, and not wait for the full swap so that intra-
Afghan negotiations can begin. The aim has been for the process to start in early May. This
seems an ambitious goal given the wide gap and opposing interests of the two Afghan
parties. The dispute over the prisoner issue is more than just that. It reflects both sides’
unwillingness to concede anything significant to each other and portends the formidable
difficulties that lie ahead even if this is resolved.

Although the main impediment to the peace process is the impasse over the prisoner
exchange, the tussle between President Ghani and Dr Abdullah Abdullah is also clouding
prospects. US threats to suspend aid have been accompanied by attempts at reconciliation
between the two rival claimants to the Afghan presidency. The EU has also warned of future
funding being affected if the feud isn’t ended. Despite some encouraging signs, the two have
yet to agree on a power-sharing plan to give Abdullah the executive position and authority
he seeks, which Ghani has so far been reluctant to do.

US efforts to expedite the peace process are obviously driven by President Trump’s clear and
oft-stated desire to end America’s long involvement in a war that has cost so much in blood
and treasure. Being election year in the US, for him bringing troops home will be prioritised
over trying to fix a troubled peace process if it doesn’t make any headway. Already there are
credible news reports that Trump is getting more impatient and wants to speed up the
drawdown.

The uncertain situation in Afghanistan poses severe dilemmas for Pakistan. While aiding the
peace process in whatever way it can, Islamabad must envisage and be ready to deal with a
range of scenarios that may emerge. It should also, in the interim, intensify its political and
diplomatic outreach to all Afghan groups — a lesson that should be learnt from Pakistan’s
history of troubled relations with Afghanistan.

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The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.

Published in Dawn, May 4th, 2020

 TODAY'S PAPER | MAY 04, 2020

No more rollbacks
Shahab Usto | May 04, 2020

The writer is a lawyer and an academic.

HISTORICALLY, constitutional evolution has followed momentous if not cataclysmic

events in a nation’s history, be it the first proto-Muslim state’s Misaq-i-Madina, a
resurgent feudal England’s Magna Carta, a post-revolutionary England’s Declaration of
Rights, a newly created United States of America’s Bill of Rights or revolutionary
France’s Declaration of the Rights of Man.

The journey of human civilisation has seen many revolutions, regicides and fratricides, and
philosophical, scientific, artistic and intellectual movements, eventually bring about some
sort of a legal order — one that may be just, clear and certain, beyond the will of an
individual no matter how powerful or resourceful, rooted in a social contract or
constitution, by which the mutual rights and obligations of the state and citizens may be
specified.

When it comes to the rule of law as an institution, our history is perhaps not as romantic or
heroic, yet we have suffered no less in our constitutional journey. Over seven decades, the
country has witnessed many an occasion when its constitutional march was halted,
hindered and even driven back by the military dictators, using an unfortunate mix of
muscular power and judicial legitimacy. Yet, thanks to the generational struggle waged by its
freedom- and justice-loving people — political workers, lawyers, journalists, students,
academics, labourers, poets, writers, artists and so on — Pakistan has seen its constitutional
dispensation being restored over and over again; ultimately reaching a point where, if
allowed space and time, it may finally deliver on the promises extended in its social contract.

Perhaps the government sees the present

crisis as conducive to constitutional
meddling.

This doesn’t mean we have settled the primordial question of whether the constitutional
dispensation has attained enough strength to hold itself true to its substance versus an array
of powerful countervailing forces including dictators and demagogues. Today, not only is
this longstanding question still unanswered, it has been resurrected by the incumbent PTI
government, which has shown its ‘resolve’ to ‘revisit’ — if not to undo — the 18th
Amendment. Enacted through parliamentary consensus in 2010, the intent behind this
constitutional amendment lay in ‘restoring’ the spirit of federalism. It is mind-boggling, then,
that the federal government has chosen to reignite a divisive constitutional issue,
particularly at a time when the citizens are faced with an existential crisis in the form of a
deadly new virus, and are expecting the federal and provincial governments to fight the
pandemic in tandem.

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Perhaps the federal government finds these ominous and chaotic times rather conducive for
it to muddle through a constitutional rollback by leveraging the state’s covert powers and
NAB’s dreadful laws to bend the opposition. Such an approach is in sync with a global
“pandemic of power grabs” by rulers who, in the words of a recent editorial by The
Economist, “realised that now is the perfect time to do outrageous things”. A constitutional
rollback, however, seems highly improbable both politically and for reasons intrinsic to the
18th Amendment.

Politically, the PTI government won’t find it easy to rope in its coalition partners, who were
voted on local or provincial sentiments. Given the administrative latitude and financial
space enjoyed by the provinces, not even the ruling party’s provincial governments would be
happy with a rollback of their constitutional powers. Pakistan’s business community would
also prefer to work with provincial and local governments rather than Islamabad. Nor
would the people appreciate the government tinkering with the constitutional reforms that,
notwithstanding our recurring political turbulence, helped bring about peace, stability and
continuity. More importantly, the 18th Amendment was intrinsic to curing many a chronic ill
that had afflicted the body politic, particularly the distortions plaguing the trichotomy of
power and federalism.

Thus, the concurrent legislation was abolished (barring a few subjects), bringing more
clarity and discernibility to the legislative business. Much of the social sector was devolved
to the provinces (and further down to local governments) so that people could receive
services from local and provincial governments rather than from faraway Islamabad.

Moreover, parliament was decisively strengthened, versus an omnipotent president who, in

collusion with the establishment, had ‘hedged’ the elected governments to his whims.
Likewise, revenue distribution between the federal and provincial governments was
rationalised on the touchstone of transferring social portfolios to the provinces and limiting
the federation to ‘core’ state functions. Additional safeguards were also included to prevent
the federal government from imposing an arbitrary and mala fide emergency or governor’s
rule on a province. Most significantly, the judiciary finally emerged from the long shadow of
the executive, decisively vigorous, independent and free from financial, administrative and
tenural impediments.

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Admittedly, the three key beneficiaries of the constitutional amendment — the executive,
parliament and judiciary — have so far failed, in varying degrees, to extend the benefits of
the reforms to the citizenry, be it good governance, social legislation or speedy justice. In
fact, post-devolution Pakistan saw the worst rounds of turf wars, with elected governments
being eternally caught in the cross hairs of a proactively moralist judiciary, and parliament
relegated to a talk shop. One may argue this was inevitable given that the newly
‘independent’ judiciary needed to jealously guard the ground reclaimed from a long-
domineering executive.

Mercifully, this contentious phase seems to be abating, probably dictated by the law of
diminishing returns. Now it is time for the executive and legislative branches to reclaim the
ground lost to the establishment in the course of their internecine confrontation. Instead of
rocking the constitutional boat, they should build on it a real ‘legal state’, or Rechtsstaat, and
then let the people — the political sovereigns — be the real beneficiaries of the resulting
boons: rule of law, good governance, social justice, economic equilibrium and environmental
protection. Our constitutional journey must never be halted or rolled back; it must only
move forward.

The writer is a lawyer and an academic.

shahabusto@hotmail.com

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Published in Dawn, May 4th, 2020
 TODAY'S PAPER | MAY 04, 2020

Missing rights
Huma Yusuf | May 04, 2020

The writer is a freelance journalist.

DIRE. That’s the word the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan uses to describe the
state of human rights in our country. Its annual report, released last week, makes for a
distressing read, particularly in the midst of a pandemic. One wonders, given how
widespread rights violations are, when this brutalised body politic will reach its
breaking point.

The PTI government has cited concerns of riots fuelled by starvation as a reason to impose
light-touch lockdowns. But the HRCP’s report reminds us that the state’s fear of its citizenry
is rooted in a deeper knowledge of systemic fissures in our country; fissures produced by the
disgraceful treatment of an underclass — including women, children, dissenters, religious
minorities, labour, prisoners, and more — often by state institutions themselves.

The report identifies state efforts to stifle dissent as a key trend of 2019. The clampdown on
media freedoms was complemented by the continuing strategy of enforced disappearances.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa led the way, with 2,472 missing persons cases registered as of
December, including human rights activist Idris Khattak. Not surprisingly, initiatives to
criminalise disappearances are stalled. The thing is, you only silence critics when you have
something to hide. And the HRCP’s report — documenting everything from miscarriage of
justice to child abuse to poor enfranchisement — gives a sense of what this might be.

The sad and shocking scale of rights abuses again raises the question of how efficacious the
state’s censorship strategy can be. When the public narrative significantly diverges from
lived experience, the only outcome is more frustration among the people, who realise that
on top of being poorly served, they’re also being lied to and manipulated.

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State efforts to stifle dissent was a key trend

of 2019.

Pakistan has the somewhat unique problem that the concept of human rights has been
deemed toxic among the middle classes because it is too often associated with curbs on
media and religious freedoms. Decades of authoritarian state policy have entrenched a
suspicion of democracy and secularism, and there is perversely a fair amount of support for
policies targeting those labelled unpatriotic or blasphemous.

But human rights are also about positive access to food, healthcare, safety, and education. In
the Covid-19 context, we must rehabilitate this understanding to build more public support
for the rights agenda. The HRCP report includes reminders of how underserved Pakistanis
are: our country’s healthcare spending is less than one per cent of GDP, even though the
WHO recommends 6pc. And only 4pc of Pakistani children receive a ‘minimally acceptable
diet’. These poor healthcare and nutrition standards expose the flaws of the prime minister’s
reasoning that our youthful demography will protect us against the worst of the pandemic;
malnourishment can hardly boost immunity.

The report also focuses on failings of our criminal justice system, an issue so endemic that
we take it for granted rather than consider it a rights violation. But without a functional
judicial system, we have no recourse or accountability. Justice in Pakistan is delayed and
denied. And miscarriages of justice — such as Rana Bibi’s 19-year imprisonment for a
murder she didn’t commit — are not atoned for.

In light of the pandemic, the plight of prisoners is particularly relevant. Pakistan’s prisons
are appallingly overcrowded, with an occupancy rate of 133.8pc. More than 62pc of this
population comprises pre-trial detainees and those on remand. Jam-packed prisoners are
more vulnerable to diseases, including hepatitis, HIV and now Covid-19.

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Another often overlooked issue highlighted by the HRCP that takes on more urgency in the
coronavirus context is low levels of labour organisation. Only up to 3pc of Pakistan’s labour
force is unionised, and there are few opportunities for collective bargaining for fair wages
or safe working conditions. The Balochistan High Court last year banned 62 labour unions in
the province. The disregard for labour rights will take on new dimensions during a
pandemic, when workers should have ample rights to demand safe working conditions and
job protection in the event of sickness.

While focusing on the pandemic, the government will likely overlook the HRCP’s findings.
This will be to its demerit, since upholding human rights should underpin all policymaking.
The challenges the report identifies will take years to address, but there are several ways
this administration can signal a commitment to human rights. For starters, it can vow to
protect the 18th Amendment. Such are the times, that the mere presentation of a report can
be a political act. The HRCP has organised its report by province and administrative unit in a
nod to the threats faced by the devolution process. After all, those closest, and so most
accountable, to the people are best positioned to protect their rights.

The writer is a freelance journalist.

Twitter: @humayusuf

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Published in Dawn, May 4th, 2020

 TODAY'S PAPER | MAY 04, 2020

Circular buck
Shahzad Sharjeel | May 04, 2020

The writer is a poet and analyst.

PASSING the buck has become a national trait. The government, having run out of
rickshaw drivers and street food vendors with billions in benami (proxy) bank
accounts, had to turn to the good old Independent Power Producers (IPPs), the favorite
whipping boys of political parties. In one fell swoop, outgoing governments and the
investments they brought in are tarred with the brush of suspicion.

This piece is not about defending IPPs, and there are no two opinions about better training
for our officialdom to safeguard citizens’ interests while entering into agreements.

Who would not want a lower electricity bill? Make electricity free if you will, but then please
do not insult the citizens’ collective intelligence by incessantly talking about making Pakistan
‘a magnet for investment’. Honouring contractual commitments backed by sovereign
guarantees is the bedrock of investor confidence.
 When push comes to shove we turn to the
IPPs.

Could the power purchase agreements have been negotiated better? Yes and no. Yes, because
hindsight is always 20/20, and no because of the exact same reason, ie that was then, this is
now. Let us consider a simple example. Pick up any rent agreement and you would realise
that it could have been negotiated variously to benefit either of the parties. The monthly rent
and the amount of advance deposit could have been different; and the notice period for
vacating the premises could have been shorter or longer. The crux of the matter is that an
agreement has been entered into and it must be adhered to for the duration agreed to by the
parties and it can only be annulled according to the conditions mentioned therein. Consider
for a moment a son petitioning a court of law that his father was negligent in entering into a
tenancy agreement and as he has since died; the petitioner will neither pay the rent nor
vacate the house.

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What one government does to its predecessors comes back to haunt it when it is out of office.
The PML-N accused the PPP in the 1990s of determining very high per unit price of
electricity in return for allegedly receiving kickbacks from the IPPs. It did not matter to
anyone that the IPPs were invited to invest at a predetermined unit price. Another grouse
against these agreements was that far too many IPPs were invited to instal far too great a
generation capacity leading to a glut. It turned out that against the then 2,000 megawatts
shortfall, only 1,000 MW surplus resulted over time.

Decades under martial laws were wasted to create a bogey of an enemy waiting to devour us
from across the eastern border. Decades under elected governments were wasted in street
demonstrations to determine who brought them to power and who orchestrated their
ouster. We just did not have the time or gumption to develop our hydropower generation
resources and maintain and upgrade the distribution network. When demand and supply
push came to shove, we turned to the IPPs for a quick thermal solution.

As soon as we have breathing space, or think we do, we want to wriggle out of agreements
with IPPs. And what better excuse than to accuse the previous regime of corruption and the
IPPs of behaving like profit-seeking businesses instead of the nonprofit entities we want
them to be?

Pakistan currently faces a $6 billion fine awarded by the International Centre for
Resettlement of Investment Disputes for reneging on the Reko Diq mining deal with Tethyan
Copper Company. The global arbitrator has also fined Pakistan for breaching a rental power
agreement with a Turkish company Karkey Karadeniz Elektrik Uretim. The award stands at
over $1bn and keeps rising due to accruing interest payments.

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What a fantastic time for the IMF to suspend its regular programme in ‘mutual agreement’
with the government as it was full of conditions like private-sector-led growth, ease of doing
business reforms to attract investment, and fiscal responsibility, etc. The emergency dole
programme on the other hand means no-questions-asked quick disbursement, a win-win for
the lender and the government.

The IPPs can challenge the recent accusations of overbilling under the heads of fuel, O&M
and capacity charges in the courts of law and win for all the government cares. It will go to
the IFIs for loans to pay the penalties. Sooner or later, the IMF would resume its ‘regular’
programme complete with conditions like passing on the full cost of electricity generation
and distribution to the consumers. The government will readily agree, but come general
elections, it will reintroduce the subsidies in every sector to win over the voters. The Fund
will have to declare ‘reform reversal’ and suspend the programme. The next administration
will claim that it inherited a ‘ruined economy’ and the cycle of beg, borrow and steal will
continue. So shall the claims of turning Pakistan into ‘a magnet for investment’.

The writer is a poet and analyst.

Shahzadsharjeel1@gmail.com

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Published in Dawn, May 4th, 2020