Equipment Reliability Analysis Based on the Mean-

Rank Method of Two-Parameter

Weibull Distribution
Qiang Liao, Xiaoyang Wang, Dan Ling, Zhenlin Xiao, Hong-Zhong Huang
School of Mechatronics Engineering
University of Electronic Science and Technology of China
Chengdu, China
Liaoqiang1982@126.com

Abstract—Weibull distribution is a continuous probability formula by statisticians, we can insert it into approximate
distribution model and it has been widely used in reliability Median-rank formula to get the sample empirical distribution.
engineering. When we use Least-squares method to estimate the This method can improve the accuracy of the parameters
parameters of Weibull distribution, the empirical distribution being estimated [2].
function of life model is a key factor in accuracy. Typically to
some complex mechanical products in the life test of reliability,
the test sample is incomplete because of the test time, conditions,
II. WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION MODEL DESCRIBES
cost and other factors. If we directly use the approximate Weibull distribution is widely used in reliability modeling
Median-rank formula to calculate the equation, it will cause and analysis. If the life data of the equipment is submitted to
large errors. In this paper, we use the Mean-rank method to two-parameter Weibull distribution [3], one can get the
calculate the equation. According to the Mean-rank method following functions.
increment formula by statisticians, we can insert it into
approximate Median-rank formula to get the sample empirical Failure intensity function:
distribution. This method can improve the precision of β −1
parameter estimation. β⎛t⎞ ⎡ ⎛ t ⎞β ⎤
f (t ) = ⎜ ⎟ exp ⎢ − ⎜ ⎟ ⎥ (1)
η ⎝η ⎠ ⎢⎣ ⎝ η ⎠ ⎥⎦
Keywords-Weibull distribution; mean-rank method; least-
squares method; empirical distribution function
Failure distribution function:
I. INTRODUCTION
⎡ ⎛ t ⎞β ⎤
Weibull distribution as a continuous probability F (t ) = 1 − exp ⎢ − ⎜ ⎟ ⎥ (2)
distribution model has been widely used in the project ⎣⎢ ⎝ η ⎠ ⎦⎥
reliability. At present, the relatively simple and practical Reliability function:
method on mechanical reliability design and analysis is based
on the Weibull distribution [1]. The common parameter ⎡ ⎛ t ⎞β ⎤
estimation method is figure estimation which is simple and R(t ) = 1 − F (t ) = exp ⎢ − ⎜ ⎟ ⎥ (3)
intuitive, but its accuracy is questionable. Maximum ⎢⎣ ⎝ η ⎠ ⎥⎦
likelihood method has high precision, but the calculation is Failure rate function:
very complicated. Sometimes the estimation can fall into a
local minimum and cannot find the global optimum. f (t ) β t ( β −1)
Meanwhile we use Least-squares method to linear process λ (t ) = = (4)
R (t ) ηβ
data, we can feel more intuitive, smaller computation and high
accuracy. In fact, it is an ideal Weibull distribution parameter where t> 0 is the time, β > 0 is the shape parameter, η > 0 is
estimation. the scale parameter.
As the Least-squares method is used to estimate the The shape parameter β , affects the shape of distribution
parameters of the Weibull distribution, the empirical curve. When the shape parameter has changed, the curve of f(t)
distribution function of life model is a key factor which varies in different shapes. The curve turns to exponential
affects the estimation accuracy. Typically, for some complex distribution while β = 1 . It resemble the Rayleigh distribution
mechanical products in the life test, the test sample is while β = 2 . It resemble the normal distribution while
incomplete because of the test time, conditions, capital and
other factors. If we directly use the approximate Median-rank β = 3.5 . The failure rate is decreasing while β < 1 , and the
formula to calculate the equation, large errors may occur. In product is in the early failure; the failure rate is constant while
this paper, we use the Mean-rank method to calculate the β = 1 , and the product is in the occasional failure. The failure
equation. According to the Mean-rank method increment

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rate is increasing while β > 1 , and the product is in the loss order is called rank, and under which each sample has a
failure [2]. sequence number. For a set of irregular truncation sample data,
we can not expect what time does the sample occur failure
Weibull distribution scale parameter η, zoom in and out which evacuated during the test process. So we can not
from the role of the ruler t, but does not affect the shape of the calculate the rank of the life. Yet they can be estimated by all
distribution. It’s only cause the variation of dispersion along possible rank and the mean rank. Mean rank will be inserted
the abscissa axis [4]. into the approximate median-rank formula to calculate the
empirical distribution function. This method is very
III. PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION complicated, especially in the case of large sample size,
because arrangement is very difficult. So statisticians give an
A. Least-squares parameter estimation of the Weibull mean-rank method increment formula [5]:
distribution
n + 1 − Ak −1
Two-parameter Weibull distribution of the failure ΔAk = (10)
distribution function is: n−i + 2
n + 1 − Ak −1
⎡ ⎛ t ⎞β ⎤ Ak = Ak −1 + ΔAk = Ak −1 + (11)
F (t ) = 1 − exp ⎢ − ⎜ ⎟ ⎥ n−i + 2
⎣⎢ ⎝ η ⎠ ⎦⎥ Here AK is the mean rank of the failure sample, k represents
while its transformation equation is: the sample failure sequence number, i represents the order
number for all products arranged by failure time and deletion
1 ⎡⎛ t ⎞ β ⎤
= exp ⎢⎜ ⎟ ⎥ (5) time. And then we can insert mean rank into the approximate
1 − F (t ) ⎣⎢⎝ η ⎠ ⎦⎥
Median-rank formula to get the sample empirical distribution
Both sides take twice of the logarithm, one has: Ak − 0.3
Fn (tk ) = (12)
1 n + 0.4
ln ln = β (ln t − ln η ) (6)
1 − F (t )
Let: IV. CASE ANALYSIS
1 A. Application of Mean-Rank Method to Calculate The
y = ln ln ; x = ln t ; A = β ; B = − β ln η ,
1 − F (t ) Empirical Distribution Function
Equation (6) can be changed into According to a large number of engineering practice, we
know that aircraft engine life follows Weibull distribution.
y = Ax + B (7) We selected certain type of 29 aircraft engines as the research
According to observation data{lnti,lnln1/[1-F(ti)]; i=1,2,3, " object. According to the first engine failure data, we ordered it
n }, for the linear regression equation (7), the coefficient A, B by the failure occurrence time. Such as Table I. (Note: the
of the Least-squares solution can be calculated as [5]: engine reaches the rated working time of 2,000 hours will stop
working)
⎧ˆ ⎛ n ⎞ ⎛ n 2 2⎞
⎪ A = ⎜ ∑ xi yi − nxy ⎟ ⎜ ∑ xi − nx ⎟
⎨ ⎝ i =1 ⎠ ⎝ i =1 ⎠ (8) TABLE I. CERTAIN TYPE AIRCRAFT ENGINE FAILURE DATA
⎪ˆ ˆ
⎩ B = y − xA Failure Failure End of life Failure Failure End of life
in which: number time(/h) situations number time(/h) situations
1 350.1 F1 6 1,514.5 F6
1 n 1 n 2 711.9 F2 7 1,574.9 F7
x=∑
n i =1
xi ， y = ∑ yi
n i =1
3 772 F3 8 1,708.2 F8
4 812 F4 9 ∼ 29 2,000 C1 ∼ C21
Parameter estimation is 5 1,450.2 F5
Here F represent failure data, C represent truncation data.
⎧ βˆ = Aˆ Table I includes failure data and truncation data. The
⎪
⎨ Bˆ (9) truncation data is the engines survived at 2000 hours without
⎪ηˆ = exp(− ˆ ) failure occurence. After deleting truncation data, we ordered
⎩ A the remaining 8 engines by failure occurence time. And then
If we want to get the best regression line as using the Mean-rank method was used to calculate empirical
Least-squares method to estimate the Weibull parameters, we distribution function. At last we combined the Least-squares
will find the key factor is to get the accuracy of the empirical method to estimate parameters of Weibull distribution of
distribution function. engine, such as listed in Table II.

B. Mean-Rank Method Through the plotting of xi and yi in Table II, we used

Matlab to calculate numerically and fitted the regression line
For a full life test or regular truncation of sample data, the such as Fig. 1.
failure time can be arranged into the order statistics. This

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 TABLE II. USING THE MEAN-RANK METHOD TO CALCULATE THE −(
t
)1.4971
EMPIRICAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION F (t ) = 1 − e 4019.8505 (15)
The parameter of mean The engine reliability function is:
Failure rank xi=lnti yi=ln{-ln[1- Fn(tk)]}
number −(
t
)1.4971
ti Ai Fn(tk) R (t ) = e 4019.8505 (16)
1 350.1 1 0.0238 5.858 -3.726
Because of β=1.4971>1, we can see that the engine was in the
2 711.9 1.967 0.0567 6.568 -2.841 loss failure. After 2000 hours, the engine reliability is:
3 772 2.968 0.0907 6.649 -2.353
t 2000
4 812 3.969 0.1248 6.700 -2.015 −( )1.4971 −( )1.4971
R (t ) = e 4019.8505 = e 4019.8505 = 70.36% (17)
5 1,450.2 4.970 0.1588 7.279 -1.755
6 1,514.5 5.971 0.1929 7.323 -1.540
It shows that after 2,000 hours of work, the reliability of the
engine is not high. And it does not match the high reliability
7 1,574.9 6.972 0.2269 7.362 -1.357
requirements in air products. Therefore, it needs overhaul.
8 1,708.2 7.973 0.2610 7.443 -1.196

-1 TABLE III. USING THE APPROXIMATE MEDIAN-RANK METHOD TO

CALCULATE EMPIRICAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

-1.5 Failure
ti Fn(ti) xi=lnti yi=ln{-ln[1- Fn(ti)]}
number
1 350.1 0.0238 5.858 -3.726
-2
2 711.9 0.0578 6.568 -2.821
3 772 0.0918 6.649 -2.375
y(i)

-2.5
4 812 0.1259 6.700 -2.006
5 1,450.2 0.1600 7.279 -1.747
-3
6 1,514.5 0.1939 7.323 -1.535
-3.5 7 1,574.9 0.2278 7.362 -1.353
8 1,708.2 0.2619 7.443 -1.192
-4
5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
x(i) -1

Figure 1. The Mean-rank method of the Least-squares fitting map

-1.5

The regression equation:

y = Ax + B = 1.4971x − 12.4247 (13) -2

B. The Median Rank Method vs. The Empirical Distribution

y(i)

-2.5
Function
Generally, the approximate Median-rank method was used
-3
to calculate empirical distribution function in small sample.
Its expression is:
-3.5
i − 0.3
Fn (ti ) = (14)
n + 0.4 -4
The result was shown in Table III: 6 6.2 6.4 6.6
x(i)
6.8 7 7.2 7.4 7.6

Through the plotting of xi and yi in table Ⅲ, the fitted

regression line is shown in Fig. 2. Figure 2. The approximate Median-rank method of the Least-squares fitting
map

V. RELIABILITY OF AIRCRAFT ENGINE

Comparing Fig. 1 with Fig. 2, we can conclude that the
accuracy of the Mean-rank method is higher than the
approximate Median-rank method. This advantage is more
pronounced when the sample size becomes larger.
By (9) (13),
βˆ = 1.4971 ； ηˆ = 4019.8505
The engine failure rate function is:
VI. CONCLUSION
Integrating an engineering example, we used the Mean-
rank method and the Least-squares method to estimate the
two-parameter Weibull distribution. We can see that this
parameter estimation method is simple, accurate, and easy to
calculate. The comparison shows that the Mean-rank method
is more accurate than the approximate Median-rank method.
Because of the sample was smaller in this instance, the

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advantage is not obvious. In the case of large sample size [1] B. Z. Zhang and T. X. Zeng, “Application of Weibull methods to
advantage becomes more apparent. reliability design,analysis and evaluation of mechanical product,”
Aeronautic Standerdization and Quality, no. 1, pp. 34-35, 2000.
[2] X. H. Yu, L. B. Zhang, and C. H. Wang, “Reliability life analysis of the
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS equipment based on new Weibull distribution parameter estimation
method,” Mechanical Strength, vol. 29, no. 6, pp. 932-936, 2007.
This research was partially supported by the National
[3] R. L. Kong, Aero-engine Reliability Engineering. Beijing: Aviation
Natural Science Foundation of China under contract number Industry Press, 1996.
50775026. [4] C. Wang and J, Wang, Mechanical Reliability Engineering. Beijing:
Metallurgical Industry Press,1993.
[5] Y. Zhao, J. Yang, and X. B. Ma, Reliability Data Analysis Course.
REFERENCES Beijing: Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Press, 2009.

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