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MEOH Investor Presentation May 2023
MEOH Investor Presentation May 2023
Methanol
Leader
CORPORATE PRESENTATION
MAY 2023
Forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures
Continuous improvement Progress G3 project Achieve economic gas Invest resources to Balanced approach of
of safety performance and safely, on time, and on contracts to enable evaluate the feasibility maintaining the business
production reliability. budget for production increased production of technologies to (maintenance capital and
in the fourth quarter of from assets in Chile, produce low and zero debt repayment),
2023. New Zealand and carbon methanol to profitability growing and
Trinidad. capitalize on increasing returning excess cash to
customer demand. shareholders through a
sustainable dividend and
flexible share buybacks.
9.3 mmt annual operating capacity across 11 plants and 6 production sites
Operating Number Gas
capacity of plants2 supply
(mmt)1
Geismar, USA
Damietta, Egypt
7 Methanex | The Global Methanol Leader | Investor Presentation May 2023 Source: Methanex
Sustainable competitive advantage
from integrated global capabilities
Investing in industry-leading, secure, reliable
supply from a global network of plants is a
fundamental driver of long-term success
Adjusted EBITDA1 capability ($M) at various Free cash flow2 capability ($M) at various
average realized methanol prices ($/MT) average realized methanol prices ($/MT)
1,925
1,300
1,525 1,600
1,050
1,250 975
1,125
925 750
650
725
575 475
325
200
Includes G3 production of 1.8 mmt and 6.5 mmt Includes G3 production of 1.8 mmt and all assets running at full rates.
of production based on 2023 guidance. Both scenarios exclude currently idled assets (Titan and Waitara Valley).
10 Methanex | The Global Methanol Leader | Investor Presentation May 2023 Refer to slide 31 for footnote details. Updated in March 2023.
Methanol is difficult to substitute
based on its unique chemistry, Traditional chemical Essential building block used in formaldehyde
scale, ease of transport and cost applications expected
to grow with GDP
and acetic acid to make raw materials for
building and automotive parts, paints, paper,
plastics, pharmaceuticals and silicone products.
Over of global methanol
FEEDSTOCK 2022 DEMAND ~90 MMT 50% demand
Coal Traditional
~40% Energy-related Used in Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE)
applications have for blending in gasoline, in Dimethyl
ether (DME) to replace liquified petroleum gas
significant (LPG), and in the production of biodiesel.
Methanol Energy demand upside
A cleaner burning fuel for kilns, cooking stoves,
boilers, and cars and heavy trucks in China.
Over of global methanol
Natural Gas 30% demand
Emerging demand from methanol as a marine
~59%
fuel.
MTO
Source: OPIS (Chemical Market Analytics) World Analysis based on 2022 production and demand figures.
12 Methanex | The Global Methanol Leader | Investor Presentation
Growing interest in methanol as a marine fuel
Cleaner burning, proven technology, easily transportable
with existing infrastructure, and cost competitive
135 +
vessels
Ships on the water
Potential demand
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027+
14 Methanex | The Global Methanol Leader | Investor Presentation May 2023 1 Based on orders as of February 2023
Firm capacity additions unlikely to meet growing demand; tight
market conditions support strong methanol prices
Estimated Methanol Industry Capacity Additions* New capacity additions
MMT
9.0 Pace of capacity additions to slow after the
recent start-up of Koch, Schekino Azot III,
8.0
Sabalan and Jiutai II between 2021 and 2022
7.0
Besides G3, limited firm capacity addition
6.0 expected in the Atlantic market
0.0
• Growing methanol demand
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 • Structural industry supply challenges
US Iran China Others Firm Capacity Addition Net Hypothetical Capacity Addition • Higher energy prices
Source: OPIS (Chemical Market Analytics) World Analysis, Fall 2022 Update.
*Capacity calculated on a pro-rata basis depending on the actual start-up timing. Hypothetical capacity
additions needed to balance the market otherwise operating rate improvements will be required.
Global
methanol High energy prices shifting cost curve higher
demand
Global energy shortages and higher energy prices
have shifted the cost curve and provide firm
methanol price support
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
METHANOL TYPE BROWN METHANOL GREY METHANOL BLUE METHANOL E-METHANOL BIO-METHANOL
GREEN METHANOL
PRODUCTION ~35 mmt (China only) ~55 mmt ~0 mmt <0.3 mmt
19 Methanex | The Global Methanol Leader | Investor Presentation May 2023 Source: 2021 Irena Report and internal estimates. * Exchange rate used USD 1 = EUR 0.9
Embedding sustainability:
from strategy to action1
Solutions focused and committed
to continual improvement COMMITMENTS
$1,200 $500
700 700
$450
$1,000
$400
300 300
$350
$800
$300
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 .. .. 2044 $600 $250
$200
$400
$150
Methanex Share of Cash (as of 31 March 2023) Moody’s Fitch S&P Capital investments (LHS)
2. $50/MT change in average realized price (ARP) impacts portfolio gas cost/MT by ~$10.
Unhedged portion of North America (~15%) assumed at $4.00/mmbtu.
26 Methanex | The Global Methanol Leader | Investor Presentation May 2023
Forward-looking statements
This presentation, our Fourth Quarter 2022 Management’s Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") as well as comments made during the Fourth Quarter 2022 investor conference call contain forward-looking statements with respect to us and our industry. These
statements relate to future events or our future performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. Statements that include the words "believes," "expects," "may," "will," "should," "potential," "estimates,"
"anticipates," "aim," "goal", "targets", "plan," "predict" or other comparable terminology and similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature identify forward-looking statements.
More particularly and without limitation, any statements regarding the following are We believe that we have a reasonable basis for making such forward-looking However, forward-looking statements, by their nature, involve risks and uncertainties that
forward-looking statements: statements. The forward-looking statements in this document are based on our could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-
experience, our perception of trends, current conditions and expected future looking statements. The risks and uncertainties primarily include those attendant with
• expected demand for methanol and its derivatives, producing and marketing methanol and successfully carrying out major capital expenditure
developments as well as other factors. Certain material factors or assumptions
• expected new methanol supply or restart of idled capacity and timing for projects in various jurisdictions, including, without limitation:
were applied in drawing the conclusions or making the forecasts or projections
start-up of the same,
that are included in these forward-looking statements, including, without
• expected shutdowns (either temporary or permanent) or restarts of existing
limitation, future expectations and assumptions concerning the following:
methanol supply (including our own facilities), including, without limitation, • conditions in the methanol and other industries including fluctuations in the
the timing and length of planned maintenance outages, • the supply of, demand for and price of methanol, methanol derivatives, supply, demand and price for methanol and its derivatives, including demand for
• expected methanol and energy prices, natural gas, coal, oil and oil derivatives, methanol for energy uses,
• expected levels of methanol purchases from traders or other third parties, • our ability to procure natural gas feedstock on commercially acceptable • the price of natural gas, coal, oil and oil derivatives,
• expected levels, timing and availability of economically priced natural gas terms, • our ability to obtain natural gas feedstock on commercially acceptable terms to
supply to each of our plants, • operating rates of our facilities, underpin current operations and future production growth opportunities,
• capital committed by third parties towards future natural gas exploration • receipt or issuance of third-party consents or approvals or governmental • the ability to carry out corporate initiatives and strategies,
and development in the vicinity of our plants, approvals related to rights to purchase natural gas, • actions of competitors, suppliers and financial institutions,
• our expected capital expenditures and anticipated timing and rate of return • the establishment of new fuel standards, • conditions within the natural gas delivery systems that may prevent delivery of our
of such capital expenditures, • operating costs, including natural gas feedstock and logistics costs, capital natural gas supply requirements,
• anticipated operating rates of our plants, costs, tax rates, cash flows, foreign exchange rates and interest rates, • our ability to meet timeline and budget targets for the Geismar 3 Project,
• expected operating costs, including natural gas feedstock costs and logistics • the availability of committed credit facilities and other financing, including the impact of any cost pressures arising from labour costs,
costs, • the expected timing and capital cost of our Geismar 3 Project, • the signing of definitive agreements and the receipt of regulatory and other
• expected tax rates or resolutions to tax disputes, • global and regional economic activity (including industrial production customary approvals in respect of the sale of a minority interest in our Waterfront
• the timing of the closing of the sale of a minority interest in our Waterfront levels) and GDP growth, Shipping subsidiary,
Shipping subsidiary, • absence of a material negative impact from major natural disasters, • competing demand for natural gas, especially with respect to any domestic needs
• expected cash flows, cash balances, earnings capability, debt levels and share • absence of a material negative impact from changes in laws or regulations, for gas and electricity,
price, • absence of a material negative impact from political instability in the • actions of governments and governmental authorities, including, without
• availability of committed credit facilities and other financing, countries in which we operate, and limitation, implementation of policies or other measures that could impact the
• our ability to meet covenants associated with our long-term debt obligations, • enforcement of contractual arrangements and ability to perform supply of or demand for methanol or its derivatives,
including, without limitation, the Egypt limited recourse debt facilities that contractual obligations by customers, natural gas and other suppliers and • changes in laws or regulations,
have conditions associated with the payment of cash or other distributions, other third parties. • import or export restrictions, anti-dumping measures, increases in duties, taxes
• our shareholder distribution strategy and expected distributions to and government royalties and other actions by governments that may adversely
shareholders, affect our operations or existing contractual arrangements,
• commercial viability and timing of, or our ability to execute future projects, • world-wide economic conditions,
plant restarts, capacity expansions, plant relocations or other business • the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and
initiatives or opportunities, including our Geismar 3 Project, • other risks described in our 2022 Annual MD&A and Fourth Quarter 2022 MD&A.
• our financial strength and ability to meet future financial commitments,
• expected global or regional economic activity (including industrial production
levels) and GDP growth,
• expected outcomes of litigation or other disputes, claims and assessments,
• expected actions of governments, governmental agencies, gas suppliers, Having in mind these and other factors, investors and other readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
courts, tribunals or other third parties, and They are not a substitute for the exercise of one’s own due diligence and judgment. The outcomes implied by forward-looking statements may
• the potential future impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. not occur and we do not undertake to update forward-looking statements except as required by applicable securities laws.
28
Strong methanol demand growth forecasted over the next five years
Global methanol demand growth forecast to grow at ~3.5% CAGR or +17 mmt over next five years
Applications % of global demand1 End uses
Traditional Used as wood adhesive for plywood, particleboard and other engineered wood products
Formaldehyde ~26%
chemical Also used as raw material for a variety of building and automotive products
applications
Used to produce a wide variety of products including adhesives, paper, paint, plastics, resins,
Acetic acid ~9%
solvents, pharmaceuticals and textiles
Used to produce a wide range of products including adhesives, coatings, plastics, film, textiles,
Other traditional ~17%
paints, solvents, paint removers, polyester resins/fibers, silicone products
Energy-related Methyl tert-butyl Used as an oxygenate blending into gasoline to contribute octane and reduce the amount of harmful
~11%
applications ether (MTBE) exhaust emissions from motor vehicles
Used as an alternative cleaner-burning fuel for transportation, industrial boilers and kilns, and
Fuel applications ~9%
cooking stoves
Dimethyl ether A clean-burning fuel that is used as a substitute for liquified petroleum gas (LPG) for household
~6%
(DME ) cooking and heating. Can be used as a clean-burning substitute for diesel fuel in transportation
Biodiesel ~5% A renewable fuel made from plant oils or animal fats that uses methanol in the production process
Methanol-to- Methanol-to- Used as an alternative feedstock to produce light olefins (ethylene and propylene) to produce
~17%
Olefins olefins (MTO) various everyday products used in packaging, textiles, plastic parts/containers and auto components
Source: OPIS (Chemical Market Analytics) World Analysis, Fall 2022 Update
Food packaging,
Polyethylene plastic bags
Natural Gas or
Coal Feedstock
Pipes, window
EDC PVC frames
Ethylene
Household &
ACN Synthetic rubbers consumer goods
Propylene
Building insulation,
PO Polyether polyols Polyurethane bedding
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@Methanex
33 Methanex | The Global Methanol Leader | Investor Presentation May 2023