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Año Año OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP Total
1960-1961 42.0 24.0 25.9 23.5 18.2 17.4 17.6 5.4 0.0 3.1 0.0 5.4 182.5
1961-1962 13.2 5.9 3.0 9.5 15.3 2.9 35.1 25.6 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 119.9
1962-1963 57.2 52.2 21.2 60.0 60.7 35.1 46.5 31.9 9.7 11.9 0.0 0.0 386.4
1963-1964 22.9 6.4 9.8 10.5 34.4 59.5 28.0 40.2 0.0 0.0 21.3 24.9 257.9
1964-1965 41.8 32.2 54.0 42.7 23.0 38.5 0.0 20.2 7.8 0.0 0.0 1.4 261.6
1965-1966 15.6 9.3 16.3 13.2 6.5 21.5 9.3 9.3 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 104.0
1980-1981 1.3 13.4 18.0 19.7 17.6 23.0 13.4 14.4 2.1 0.0 30.5 0.0 153.4
1981-1982 11.3 8.2 12.2 34.2 18.0 18.1 12.9 5.0 2.6 2.4 5.0 0.0 129.9
1982-1983 5.2 12.9 16.1 23.1 24.1 13.6 13.2 4.6 2.3 1.5 1.0 2.0 119.6
1983-1984 5.0 18.7 30.8 21.1 30.3 23.7 29.1 3.1 2.7 1.0 6.4 0.0 171.9
1984-1985 30.3 13.9 0.0 0.0 81.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 126.0
1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.2 15.8 8.8 22.3 1.5 0.0 4.0 0.0 3.5 108.1
1989-1990 0.0 0.0 19.6 20.0 1.9 12.2 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 66.5
1990-1991 13.3 10.0 25.7 17.7 24.8 22.6 15.8 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.3 149.7
1991-1992 5.5 7.4 3.4 18.4 18.3 7.7 8.2 2.1 1.3 2.8 1.6 4.2 80.9
1992-1993 0.9 10.5 5.6 10.5 2.2 5.5 10.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 47.4
1993-1994 5.6 5.5 16.4 7.8 7.6 6.3 2.7 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 60.8
1994-1995 4.8 7.8 9.7 4.6 8.7 9.1 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 50.6
1995-1996 4.9 5.8 11.2 24.9 18.1 5.7 7.8 6.5 1.5 0.0 4.3 1.0 91.7
1996-1997 4.6 13.6 12.2 12.9 21.2 13.7 27.8 0.6 1.8 0.0 0.2 9.9 118.5
1997-1998 3.0 8.4 17.4 13.9 7.6 10.8 4.4 0.2 1.8 0.7 1.8 0.2 70.2
1998-1999 9.7 8.2 10.2 6.4 19.2 18.4 4.2 3.3 2.3 2.1 0.0 2.6 86.6
1999-2000 14.7 3.4 7.0 19.3 4.7 10.4 5.1 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.2 4.2 73.1
2000-2001 5.4 14.3 16.5 11.3 11.4 17.8 5.4 1.5 1.6 0.0 0.0 4.1 89.3
2001-2002 13.0 6.6 8.8 12.7 15.0 3.7 2.7 3.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 67.9
2002-2003 32.0 19.7 1.8 15.8 11.2 10.8 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.3
2003-2004 10.6 7.2 17.3 9.6 12.7 19.7 11.7 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.3 3.6 95.1
2004-2005 16.8 15.1 10.4 17.4 13.6 13.5 3.4 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.6 94.2
2005-2006 7.4 11.1 24.2 32.1 45.0 9.9 20.7 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 154.7
2006-2007 9.7 19.8 28.5 28.7 23.8 14.0 2.9 2.1 0.0 2.1 0.0 7.4 139.0
2007-2008 7.3 25.9 17.9 15.4 14.2 11.6 17.2 1.7 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 114.0
2008-2009 2.1 20.6 12.3 13.2 17.5 10.8 19.4 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 103.5
2009-2010 0.0 16.0 18.8 8.2 22.3 7.5 6.0 7.4 5.9 7.1 0.0 5.2 104.4
2010-2011 2.1 0.4 14.4 18.1 21.8 4.3 7.3 7.1 3.0 3.3 0.0 0.1 81.9
2011-2012 4.8 10.5 25.8 19.9 16.1 8.4 7.4 4.9 1.8 1.6 0.0 0.0 101.2
2012-2013 3.5 26.5 36.2 8.6 11.0 3.9 5.1 2.9 5.7 0.4 2.4 2.3 108.5
2013-2014 16.6 14.6 23.6 21.4 13.7 14.7 13.0 6.9 2.6 0.0 2.2 10.7 140.0
2014-2015 7 8.5 12.5 42.5 25.2 11.4 9.4 2.2 1.2 3.2 2.9 0 126.0
2015-2016 4.6 4.3 14.9 13 26.2 6.3 4.6 4.7 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.8 82.7
2016-2017 12.8 16.9 7.4 18.1 23.3 13.2 14.3 2.4 1.2 0.2 0 3.4 113.2
2017-2018 5.2 26 12.9 28.5 14 12.5 12.3 3.4 0 1 0 4 119.8
2018-2019 7.7 7 16.1 16.4 17.9 20 6.1 2.4 5.8 8.7 0 0 108.1
2019-2020 11.2 3.4 9.1 6.8 32.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 63.4
PROMEDIO 11.5 12.8 15.7 19.2 20.2 13.9 11.6 5.9 1.8 1.6 1.9 3.0 119.1
PREC. EFECTIVA 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.5 2.4 1.9 64.4
DATOS DE PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS [mm]
AÑO AÑO OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP TOTAL
1960-1961 42.0 41.0 55.1 35.4 43.2 35.0 85.0 8.5 0.0 3.4 0.0 8.4 85.0
1961-1962 24.0 14.0 4.2 15.0 15.3 4.7 49.1 39.1 0.0 9.7 0.0 0.0 49.1
1962-1963 87.3 110.2 32.1 180.3 100.4 35.1 80.2 63.3 9.7 20.4 0.0 0.0 180.3
1963-1964 39.1 8.0 14.0 18.0 85.2 110.1 40.1 40.2 0.0 0.0 21.3 40.2 110.1
1964-1965 45.6 39.1 74.4 71.4 39.1 51.2 0.0 27.1 15.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 74.4
1965-1966 23.0 14.2 48.1 25.0 13.0 60.0 14.0 21.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0
1980-1981 2.0 41.0 35.0 80.0 33.0 60.0 70.0 60.0 5.0 0.0 90.0 0.0 90.0
1981-1982 19.0 16.0 32.1 84.0 46.0 58.0 69.0 9.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 0.0 84.0
1982-1983 16.0 24.4 41.8 49.0 63.0 61.0 66.0 12.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 66.0
1983-1984 5.0 33.0 47.0 63.0 59.0 96.0 155.0 6.0 4.0 1.0 22.0 0.0 155.0
1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0 21.0 31.0 62.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 6.0 80.0
1989-1990 0.0 0.0 38.0 20.0 3.6 28.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 38.0
1990-1991 34.0 23.0 89.0 40.0 65.0 68.0 68.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.1 89.0
1991-1992 10.5 33.0 11.1 57.9 101.0 45.2 54.0 8.8 3.3 2.8 2.3 8.3 101.0
1992-1993 5.4 41.0 15.3 58.6 7.7 35.5 71.7 1.4 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 71.7
1993-1994 11.5 7.9 112.0 23.4 21.5 14.5 11.2 20.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.4 112.0
1994-1995 20.1 25.9 24.0 20.3 23.0 24.1 2.5 4.5 1.1 0.4 0.6 1.7 25.9
1995-1996 13.5 18.2 20.2 116.8 38.6 19.3 74.3 33.3 3.0 0.0 4.3 1.3 116.8
1996-1997 17.4 34.0 32.4 73.9 81.2 75.6 93.7 0.7 2.1 0.0 0.4 29.3 93.7
1997-1998 4.4 26.6 59.6 60.1 57.3 43.4 12.6 0.3 3.2 1.0 3.4 0.2 60.1
1998-1999 42.4 38.2 18.8 20.4 40.3 57.4 9.3 8.8 3.7 6.4 0.0 2.6 57.4
1999-2000 14.7 14.2 37.4 72.3 12.3 36.3 24.0 5.5 1.3 0.3 0.2 4.2 72.3
2000-2001 20.2 60.2 53.1 27.3 38.2 61.7 17.7 3.4 3.7 0.0 0.0 16.4 61.7
2001-2002 30.4 14.4 16.3 14.7 32.2 4.5 8.8 9.2 1.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 32.2
2002-2003 87.2 38.3 3.4 49.3 41.8 60.2 4.3 3.3 3.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 87.2
2003-2004 20.7 15.4 44.1 39.2 35.2 75.7 62.1 3.4 1.6 0.0 0.3 6.8 75.7
2004-2005 60.3 60.3 37.4 53.2 36.4 23.8 10.2 1.8 2.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 60.3
2005-2006 11.1 42.7 82.0 84.3 99.4 41.5 93.4 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 99.4
2006-2007 30.4 71.3 80.7 84.4 104.3 65.6 5.8 6.1 0.0 2.1 0.0 9.1 104.3
2007-2008 22.2 52.9 62.4 63.7 31.2 53.6 29.1 3.1 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.7
2008-2009 5.4 76.2 51.4 31.6 64.8 33.3 48.7 20.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.2
2009-2010 0.0 45.4 70.3 29.4 93.3 21.1 12.2 15.3 8.1 14.8 0.0 5.2 93.3
2010-2011 2.1 1.1 56.1 56.0 124.8 13.2 32.1 33.6 4.6 5.8 0.0 0.1 124.8
2011-2012 14.2 45.3 112.7 83.2 70.4 40.0 35.3 19.3 6.8 3.6 0.0 0.0 112.7
2012-2013 5.2 62.4 52.9 22.1 23.8 7.2 8.2 15.4 15.2 0.8 2.4 3.2 62.4
2013-2014 41.1 31.4 84.2 79.0 48.2 98.4 65.3 44.7 4.9 0.0 2.2 16.7 98.4
2014-2015 12.2 45.7 42.0 85.3 138.2 47.4 29.8 6.3 3.2 3.2 7.2 0.0 138.2
2015-2016 8.1 12.3 27.7 27.1 94.9 17.8 11.4 11.3 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.8 94.9
2016-2017 42.9 41.6 31.9 44.2 94.9 48.9 103.1 12.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.5 103.1
2017-2018 10.9 74.9 39.8 177.1 58.1 64.4 19.3 4.6 0.0 2.3 0.0 7.4 177.1
2018-2019 42.6 28.1 41.3 53.1 60.6 66.9 44.3 14.7 16.1 17.1 0.0 0.0 66.9
2019-2020 35.3 6.4 17.9 9.7 152.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 152.1
Datos de la cuenca:
Área de la cuenca
A= 22.60 km²
Altitud máxima
hmax = 1624.00 m.s.n.m.
Altitud mínima
hmin = 697.00 m.s.n.m.
Coeficiente de escorrentía
C= 0.20
Tiempo de concentración
Formula californiana
7.92
𝑇_𝑐=0,066∗(𝐿/√𝐽)^0,77
Tc = 1.16 hrs
Formula de giandotti
𝑇_𝑐=(4√𝐴+1,5∗𝐿)/(25,3∗𝐽∗𝐿)
Tc = 1.56 hrs
𝑇_𝑐=0,05∗(𝐴/√𝐽)
Tc = 4.01 hrs
Formula chereque
𝑇_𝑐=(0,871∗𝐿^3/𝐻)^0,385
Tc = 1.17 hrs
Formula de kirpich
L = 11700 m
S = 0.08 m/m
𝑇_𝑐=0,000325∗𝐿^0,77/𝑆^0,385
Tc = 1.17 hrs
Análisis
Tomando el promedio de las formulas que dan resultados parecidos:
Tc = 1.27 Hrs.
Precipitaciones medias de la cuenca
P= 119.06 mm
Método racional
C = Coeficiente de escorrentía
I = Intensidad de precipitación (mm/h) 𝑄=(𝐶∗𝐼∗𝐴)/3,6
A = Área de la cuenca (Km2)
Factor de frecuencia
𝐾_𝑇=−√6/𝜋∗[0,5772+ln(ln〖𝑇 _𝑟/(𝑇_𝑟−1) 〗 ) ]
KT = 2.19 KT = 2.59
Altura de precipitación
𝐻_𝑇=𝑃_𝑥+(𝜎_𝑥∗𝐾_𝑇)
HT = 166.29 mm HT = 180.47 mm
Intensidad
𝐼=𝐻_𝑇∗(𝑇_𝑐/𝛼)^𝛽/𝑇_𝑐
α= 12.00 2,00 < β < 12,00
β= 0.20 0,20 < β < 0,30
Factor de precipitación
Fv = 0.20
Coeficiente de escorrentía
C = 0.22
Caudal máximo
𝑄=(𝐶∗𝐼∗𝐴)/3,6
Calculo de probabilidades
r = Riesgo
N = Vida útil de la obra 𝑃=1− 〖 (1−𝑟) 〗 ^(1/𝑁)
P = Probabilidad de no ocurrencia %
PROBABILIDAD (%)
RIESGO (%)
N = 10.00 N = 15.00 N = 20.00
10 1.05 0.70 0.53
20 2.21 1.48 1.11
30 3.50 2.35 1.77
40 4.98 3.35 2.52
50 6.70 4.52 3.41
PROBABILIDAD vs PRECIPITACIÓN
200.00
180.00
160.00 f(x) = 1.80011195644377 x + 29.0502161313
Precipitación (mm)
140.00 R² = 1
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Probabilidad (%)
40.00
Pr
20.00
0.00
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Probabilidad (%)
Método de Turc:
E = 903.24
P/E = 0.0179
Método de Coutagne:
λ = 0.26
Método de Wundt:
λˌ= 0.24
M(P) promedio
𝑀(𝐷)=𝑀(𝐴)−𝑀(𝑃)