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International AS Maths Edexcel: 3. Statistical Distributions
International AS Maths Edexcel: 3. Statistical Distributions
YOUR NOTES
3. Statistical Distributions
CONTENTS
3.1 Discrete Random Variables
3.1.1 Discete Probability Distributions
3.1.2 E(X) & Var(X) (Discrete)
3.1.3 aX+b
3.1.4 Discrete Uniform Distribution
3.2 Normal Distribution
3.2.1 The Normal Distribution
3.2.2 Standard Normal Distribution
3.2.3 Normal Distribution - Calculations
3.2.4 Finding Sigma and Mu
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3.1.1 Discete Probability Distributions
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YOUR NOTES
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YOUR NOTES
Worked Example
The probability distribution of the discrete random variable X is given by the
function
⎧⎪ 2
⎪⎪ kx x = − 3, − 1,2,4
P (X = x ) = ⎪⎨⎪
⎪⎩ 0 otherwise
(a)
1
Show that k = .
30
(b)
Calculate F(3) .
(c)
Calculate P(X 2 < 5) .
1
(a) Show that k = .
30
(b)
Calculate F (3) .
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YOUR NOTES
(c)
Calculate P (X 2 < 5)
Exam Tip
Try to draw a table if there are a finite number of values that the discrete random
variable can take
When finding a probability, it will sometimes be quicker to subtract the
probabilities of the unwanted values from 1 rather than adding together the
probabilities of the wanted values
Always make sure that the probabilities are between 0 and 1, and that they add
up to 1!
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E(X) & Var(X) (Discrete)
What does E(X) mean and how do I calculate E(X)?
E(X) means the expected value or the mean of a random variable X
For a discrete random variable, it is calculated by:
Multiplying each value of X with its corresponding probability
Adding all these terms together
Σ x P(X = x )
Look out for symmetrical distributions (where the values of X are symmetrical and their
probabilities are symmetrical) as the mean of these is the same as the median
For example if X can take the values 1, 5, 9 with probabilities 0.3, 0.4, 0.3 respectively
then by symmetry the mean would be 5
How do I calculate E(X²)?
E(X²) means the expected value or the mean of a random variable defined as X²
For a discrete random variable, it is calculated by:
Squaring each value of X to get the values of X2
Multiplying each value of X2 with its corresponding probability
Adding all these terms together
Σ x 2P (X = x )
In a similar way E(f(x)) can be calculated for a discrete random variable by:
Applying the function f to each value of to get the values of f(X)
Multiplying each value of f(X ) with its corresponding probability
Adding all these terms together
Σ f (x ) P (X = x )
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YOUR NOTES
This is the mean of the squares of X minus the square of the mean of X
Compare this to the definition of the variance of a set of data
Var(X) is always positive
The standard deviation of a random variable X is the square root of Var(X)
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YOUR NOTES
Worked Example
The discrete random variable X has the probability distribution shown in the
following table:
x 2 3 5 7
P (X = x ) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4
(a)
Find the value of E(X ) .
(b)
Find the value of E (X 2) .
(c)
Find the value of Var (X ) .
(a)
Find the value of E(X ) .
(b)
Find the value of E (X 2) .
(c)
Find the value of Var (X ) .
Exam Tip
Check if your answer makes sense. The mean should fit within the range of the
values of X.
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aX+b
How are the mean and variance of X related to the mean and variance of aX
+ b?
If a and b are constants then the following results are true
E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b
Var(aX + b) = a² Var(X)
Note that the mean is affected by multiplication and addition whereas addition does not
change the variance
The factor of a² includes the squared because the values of X are squared in the calculation
You could try and use the first result and the formula for variance to verify the second
result
Remember a subtraction can be written as an addition
X – b can be written as X + (-b)
And division can be written as a multiplication
x 1
can be written as X
a a
Worked Example
X is a random variable such that E (X ) = 5 and Var (X ) = 4 .
Find the value of:
(i)
E(3X + 5)
(ii)
Var (3X + 5)
(iii)
Var (2 − X )
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Discrete Uniform Distribution
What is a discrete uniform distribution?
A discrete uniform distribution is a discrete probability distribution
The discrete random variable X follows a discrete uniform distribution if
There are a finite number of distinct outcomes (n)
Each outcome is equally likely
1
If there are n distinct outcomes, P (X = x ) =
n
In many cases the outcomes of X are the integers 1, 2, 3, .., n
1
P (X = x ) = for n = 1, 2, 3, . . . ,n
n
0 for any other value of X
The distribution can be represented visually using a vertical line graph where the lines have
equal heights
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Worked Example
Each odd number from 1 to 99 is written on an individual tile and one is chosen at
random. The random variable T represents the number on the chosen tile.
(a) Find E (T ) .
(b) Find Var (T ) .
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YOUR NOTES
Exam Tip
Always check your mean and variance makes sense. If the numbers go from 1 to
100 then a mean of 101 is not possible!
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3.2.1 The Normal Distribution
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The mean is μ
The variance is σ2
If you need the standard deviation remember to square root this
The normal distribution is symmetrical about x = μ
Mean = Median = Mode = μ
The normal distribution curve has two points of inflection
x = μ ± σ (one standard deviation away from the mean)
There are the results:
Approximately two-thirds (68%) of the data lies within one standard deviation of the
mean (μ ± σ)
Approximately 95% of the data lies within two standard deviations of the mean (μ ±
2σ)
Nearly all of the data (99.7%) lies within three standard deviations of the mean (μ ±
3σ)
For any value x a z-score (or z-value) can be calculated which measures how many
standard deviations x is away from the mean
x −μ
z =
σ
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Worked Example
The random variable S represents the speeds (mph) of a certain species of
cheetahs when they run. The variable is modelled using N(40, 100).
(a)
Write down the mean and standard deviation of the running speeds of cheetahs.
(b)
State the two assumptions that have been made in order to use this model.
(a)
Write down the mean and standard deviation of the running speeds of cheetahs.
(b)
State the two assumptions that have been made in order to use this model.
Exam Tip
Remember the second number in N(x, y) is the variance, if you want the standard
deviation then you need to square root it.
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The table gives probabilities for values of z between 0 and 4 YOUR NOTES
For negative values of z, the symmetry property of the normal distribution is used
For values greater than z = 4 the probabilities are small enough to be considered
negligible
The tables give the probabilities to 4 decimal places
To read probabilities from the normal distribution table for a z value :
Find the z value in a column labelled z at the top
The probability Φ(z ) will be the probability directly to the right of the z value
So the value of Φ(1. 23) = P (Z ≤ 1. 23) would be found to the right of 1.23
P (Z ≤ 1 . 23) = 0 . 8907
If the value of z is not listed then find the closest value on the table
z = 3.14 is not listed so use z = 3.15
z = 2.25 is not listed so use z = 2.24 or z = 2.26
How is the table used to find probabilities that are not listed?
The property that the area under the graph is 1 allows probabilities to be found for P( Z > z)
Use the formula P (Z > z ) = 1 − Φ(z )
The symmetrical property of the normal distribution gives the following results:
P(Z ≤ z ) = P(Z ≥ − z )
P(Z ≥ z ) = P(Z ≤ − z )
This allows probabilities to be found for negative values of z or for P (Z > z )
Φ( − z ) = 1 − Φ(z )
P (Z > z ) = 1 − Φ(z )
In summary
P (Z < z ) = Φ(z )
P(Z > z ) = 1 − Φ(z )
P (Z < − z ) = 1 − Φ(z )
P(Z > − z ) = Φ(z )
Drawing a sketch of the normal distribution will help find equivalent probabilities
Always consider whether the probability should be bigger or smaller then 0.5
How are z values found from the table of the normal distribution function?
To find the value of z for which P (Z ≤ z ) = p look for the value of p from within the table and
find the corresponding value of z
If the probability is given to 4 decimal places most of the time the value will exist
somewhere in the tables
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If your probability is 0.5 or greater look through the tables to find the corresponding z value YOUR NOTES
Worked Example
(a)
By sketching a graph and using the table of the normal distribution, find the
following:
(i)
P(Z ≤ 0 . 96)
(ii)
P(Z > 0 . 96)
(iii)
P(Z ≤ − 0 . 96)
(iv)
P( − 0 . 96 < Z ≤ 0 . 96)
(b)
Find the value of z such that P (Z < z) = 0 . 7
(a)
By sketching a graph and using the table of the normal distribution, find the following:
(i)
P(Z ≤ 0 . 96)
(ii)
P(Z > 0 . 96)
(iii)
P(Z ≤ − 0 . 96)
(iv)
P( − 0 . 96 < Z ≤ 0 . 96)
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YOUR NOTES
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Exam Tip
A sketch will always help you to visualise the required probability and can be
used to check your answer
Check whether the area shaded is more or less than 50% and compare this with
your answer
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Throughout this section we will use the random variable . For normal, X can take
X ∼ N(μ , σ 2)
any real number. Therefore any values mentioned in this section will be assumed to be any real
number.
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X −μ
Z=
σ
⎛ x − μ ⎞⎟
You can calculate a probability P(X < x ) using the relationship P (X < x ) = P ⎜⎜ Z < ⎟
⎝ σ ⎠
Always sketch a quick diagram to visualise which area you are looking for
Once you have determined the z value use the table of the normal distribution to find the
probability
Refer to your sketch to decide if you need to subtract the probability from one
The probability of a single value is always zero for a normal distribution
You can picture this as the area of a single line is zero
P (X = x ) = 0
P (X < μ ) = P (X > μ ) = 0 . 5
You can look at which side of the mean x is on and the direction of the inequality to
decide if your answer should be greater or less than 0.5
As P(X = a ) = 0 you can use:
P(X < a ) + P(X > a ) = 1
⎛ a −μ
⎞⎟
P (X > a ) = 1 − P (X < a ) = 1 − Φ ⎜⎜ ⎟
⎝ σ ⎠
⎛ b − μ ⎟⎞ ⎛ a − μ ⎞⎟
P(a < X < b ) = P(X < b ) − P(X < a ) = Φ ⎜⎜ ⎟ − Φ ⎜⎜ ⎟
⎝ σ ⎠ ⎝ σ ⎠
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YOUR NOTES
Worked Example
The random variable X ∼ N(20,52) . Calculate:
(a)
P(X ≤ 22) ,
(b)
P (18 ≤ X ≤ 27)
(a)
P(X ≤ 22) ,
(b)
P (18 ≤ X ≤ 27)
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Given the value of P(X < a) or P(X > a) how do I find the value of a?
Given a probability you will have to look through the table of the normal distribution to
locate the z-value that corresponds with that probability
Look at whether your probability is greater or less than 0.5 and the direction of the
inequality to determine whether your z-value will be positive or negative
If P (X < a ) is more than 0.5 or P (X > a ) is less than 0.5 then a should be bigger than the
mean
z will be positive
If P (X < a ) is less than 0.5 or P (X > a ) is more than 0.5 then a should be smaller than
the mean
z will be negative
You do not need to remember these, a sketch will help you see it
Always sketch a diagram
If your probability is less than 0.5 you will need to subtract it from one to find the
corresponding z value
Remember that the position of the z-value will not change, only the direction of the
inequality
a −μ
Once you have the correct value substitute it into the formula z = and solve to find
σ
the value of a
Always check that your answer makes sense by considering where a is in relation to the
mean
Given the value of P(µ- a < X < µ + a) I find the value of a ?
A sketch making use of the symmetry of the graph is essential
⎛ 100 + α ⎟⎞
If you are given P (μ − a < X < μ + a ) = α % then P (X < μ + a ) will be ⎜⎜ ⎟%
⎝ 2 ⎠
This is easier to see from a sketch than to remember
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You can then look through the tables for the corresponding z-value and substitute into YOUR NOTES
(μ + a ) − μ a
the formula z= =
σ σ
Worked Example
The random variable W ∼ N(50, 36) .
Find the value of w such that P (W > w ) = 0 . 7673
Exam Tip
The most common mistake students make when finding values from given
probabilities is forgetting to check whether the z-value should be negative or
not. Avoid this by checking early on using a sketch whether z is positive or
negative and writing a note to yourself before starting the other calculations.
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How do I find the mean (μ) or the standard deviation (σ) if one of them is
unknown?
If the mean or standard deviation of the X ∼ N (μ ,σ 2) is unknown then you will need to use
the standard normal distribution
You will need to use the formula
x −μ
z= or its rearranged form x = μ + σz
σ
You will be given a probability for a specific value of x (P (X < x ) = p or P (X > x ) = p )
To find the unknown parameter:
STEP 1: Sketch the normal curve
Label the known value and the mean
STEP 2: Find the z-value for the given value of x
Use the table of the Normal Distribution to find the value of z such that P (Z < z ) = p or
P (Z > z ) = p
Make sure the direction of the inequality for Z is consistent with X
The table gives the z-value to four decimal places to avoid rounding errors
Use the sketch to help you decide whether your z value is positive or negative
You should use the 4 decimal places throughout your calculations so that your
final answer can be rounded to 3 significant figures
x −μ
STEP 3: Substitute the known values into z = or x = μ + σz
σ
You will be given x and one of the parameters (μ or σ) in the question
You will have calculated z in STEP 2
STEP 4: Solve the equation
How do I find the mean (μ) and the standard deviation (σ) if both of them are
unknown?
If both of them are unknown then you will be given two probabilities for two specific values
of x
The process is the same as above
You will now be able to calculate two z-values
You can form two equations (rearranging to the form x = μ + σz is helpful)
You now have to solve the two equations simultaneously
Be careful not to mix up which z-value goes with which value of x
Worked Example
It is known that the times, in minutes, taken by students at a school to eat their
lunch can be modelled using a normal distribution with mean μ minutes and
standard deviation σ minutes.
Given that 10% of students at the school take less than 12 minutes to eat their lunch
and 5% of the students take more than 40 minutes to eat their lunch, find the mean
and standard deviation of the time taken by the students at the school.
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YOUR NOTES
Exam Tip
These questions are normally given in context so make sure you identify the key
words in the question. Check whether your z-values are positive or negative
and be careful with signs when rearranging.
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