POWER SYSTEM PLANNING detailed studies of electricity usage pattern of their
CHAPTER 4 - LOAD RESEARCH customers and other influencing factors the possibility
Introduction
• Energy has become an almost “life-line” type of
commodity for all societies. It fuels the
socioeconomic process and enables people to
attain
a comfortable life style. However, consumption
of energy forms should be rationalized because
sources are limited and indeed they are diminishing.
• Electricity is one key source of energy. It is
known as a relatively “inexpensive” as well as
“clean” source of energy. However, if demand
for electricity grows beyond control there might
not be enough supply to cover all the demand.
• This unfortunate situation will cause discomfort
to people and probably disruption of economic
production. Therefore, it is very important to
properly plan, operate and control the power
system which delivers electricity to all consumers.
• Consumers of electricity vary in the amount
of electrical energy and electrical demand drawn
from the network. That is why electrical power
companies classify such consumers, or customers,
into several classes. This classification is based
on characteristics of demand; behavioral issues;
and other considerations related to location,
climate, and status to name a few.
• The quest and accumulation of this customer-related
information is called load research. With load
research the electricity company, or companies, will
be aware and hopefully knowledgeable in the
composition and trends of demand of consumers.
This essential knowledge will be the basis for pricing
electricity properly, and fairly. Moreover, the
electricity company can predict future demand
based on such information. Therefore, new
expansions, enforcements, or extensions will be
affected to cater for any future demand.
• On the other hand, proper operation and control
of the power system requires all the information
available on consumers and consumption patterns.
With the aid of this information the electricity
company can minimize production cost, plan
maintenance schedules, and control the quality
of power delivered to all consumers. This would
be reflected in leaner electricity tariff and
consequently in affordable bills.
• Electric companies historically believed their business
is simply to sell electricity, thinking they had no choice
but to keep supplying the demand. Some still think
this, but the majority now realizes that it’s usually
cheaper to convince their customers alter their
consumption habits rather than try to sell them more
of it. “Demand side management,” is the act of
attempting to manage demand of consumer to
achieve energy efficiency.
• Load research is a very essential tool and a
prerequisite for demand-side management. It has
been, and still is being, used by electricity companies
throughout the world. Load research data is used to
develop kWh-to-peak-kW conversion factors, diversity
factors, and average time varying
load data as a function of customer class, month,
and type of day.
• Load research can provide useful information for
planning and designing utility distribution systems by
means of proper load estimation. The estimation
of loads determines the size and location, or site,
of an electric plant and the associated network
equipment needed to deliver the electric power
to consumers. Moreover, the estimation of future
loads requires an understanding of the characteristics
of the various load components.
• Load research enables the management of power
companies to make effective decisions. Through
of making certain changes on end-use patterns can
be assessed. Such studies are based on either
individual end-uses or in total aggregates and they
require sound knowledge in the areas of statistics,
marketing research, electrical engineering and social
sciences. For example, the load research effect on
demand side management and energy efficiency.
• At many utilities end-use load data are collected
from a large number of customer sites at 15-minute
intervals for multiple seasons and even years. As a
result, load research data is voluminous. Thus,
designing a load data system that can respond to
data requests in a timely and effective manner is
becoming an important planning and operations
goal facing many electric companies.
• The main distinguishing characteristic of load
research is its focus on the time-related pattern of
electricity usage, throughout any time period. A
major application of load research analysis is the
design and setting of retail tariffs for electricity supply.
• Due to lack of field measurements, data used
in network analysis have various degrees of
uncertainty. The use of fuzzy load models can
address this issue. Customer hourly loads obtained
from load research are converted to fuzzy
membership functions based on a possibility
probability consistency principle.
• Hourly load research data for residential customers is
used to calculate diversity factors and kWh-to-peak-
kW factors. The customers are grouped into two
classes based on their consumption patterns. With
the use of control samples, comparisons are made
between estimated and measured peak kW.
Estimated daily load profiles are also calculated and
compared to measured daily load profiles.
• Load behavior needs to be considered in the
algorithms for distribution systems fault locations to
reduce the resulting error to practical limits. A new
modeling methodology referred to as the “fast
response model” reduces such errors.
• Load research data is used to assess the cost/benefit
of various Demand Side Management (DSM)
programs. The costs and benefits of each DSM
program are easily and readily estimated according
to load research information.
LOAD RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
• A typical electrical consumption survey may
contain general information regarding the customer,
the monthly, daily, and annual electrical
consumption, ownership of electrical appliances,
etc. This addition information is usually filled by
the customer during an interview.

• Moreover, the lighting information can be collected
using a survey similar to the one shown
SAMPLING DESIGN
This is an important step in the load research overall
process; since it will guarantee that the collected
data and results reached are of high confidence
and represent real life. The design involves the
following important factors:
• Defining the Target Population: Definitions are made
in terms of elements (e.g. old meters or new meters),
sampling units (e.g. households, industrial), extent
(geographic aspect, e.g. city) and time (e.g.
winter).
• Determining the sampling Frame: This
step consists of preparing a list or set of
directions for identifying the target population, e.g.
(connected load, type of industry,
etc).
• Selecting a Sampling Technique: This step results in
several decisions of a broader nature. A Bayesian,
traditional, probability, and/or non-probability
sampling approaches can be used. These involve:
o Simple Random Sampling
o Systematic Sampling
o Stratified Sampling, and
o Cluster Sampling.
• Determining the sample size: Sample size is influenced
by the average size of the samples in similar studies,
and are defined based on experience.
A guideline steps may be as follows:
a) specify the level of precision,
b) specify the Confidence Level (CL),
c) determine the z value associated with CL,
d) determine the standard deviation of the
population,
e) determine the sample size using formula for
the standard error.
To control this procedure, then the following factors
must be considered:
o Apply finite population correction when the
sample size is represents
10% of the population Re-estimate, if
necessary, the confidence interval.
o Apply statically defined equations
to define sample size if precision is
specified in relative terms.
• Executing the sampling process: Detailed
specifications of how to implement the
sampling design decisions must be provided. This
requires design of a preliminary questionnaire to
identify various DSM projects. The analysis of the
preliminary questionnaire my require developing a
detailed questionnaire that leads to further setting of
standards and best practices for different utilities
looking forward to implement DSM initiatives.
USES OF LOAD RESEARCH RESULTS
• Load research activities are carried out by electric
companies in order to know the appliance ownership
characteristics, load profile, and consumption habits
of the various consumers being served. With this
information the essential elements for taking any
decision are basically secured. Information
generated through load research serves several
business functions within the electricity company.
• These include the following:
➢ Load forecasting
➢ Energy efficiency and demand side
management
➢ Tariffs and power purchase prices
➢ Power system expansion studies
➢ Operation optimization of power system
➢ Customer relationships and market preferences
➢ Load profiling and consumption habits
➢ Socio-economic drives and influencing factors
➢ Competitive advantage and benchmarking
studies.
• Load research results provide a valuable input to
decision makers in the electricity companies prior to
embarking on any plan, project or program that
touches on the supply of power or power quality to
consumers. It involves huge amount of data to be
collected periodically and diligently. The information
not only covers technical matters, but it also covers
socio-economic and market information.
• One example for the need for added information is
when an electricity company notices a shift in the
consumption pattern of certain consumer groups
towards heating or cooling requirements. In such a
case information regarding availability,
characteristics of such electric appliances, prices
and consumption figures are all needed.
• Moreover, information regarding all competing
alternative appliances is also collected. The load
research studies and analyses would lead to the
identification of any possible shifts in the load profile
or timing or value of peak loads, etc. These results are
very important in all the categories listed above and
their effect in any decision cannot be
overemphasized.
DRIVING FACTORS
• The electric load is influenced by many factors. These
are called driving factors which determine how the
load is shaped during a given period of time. The
driving factors or influencing factors determine in
addition to the load profile the estimation of future
load profile including consumption pattern, peak
load, minimum load, and load factor. The latter
parameter is a measure of the efficient use of the
power system. Higher load factor means better
utilization of plant and equipment installed to meet
customer loads.
• The driving factors are classified as follows:
a) Customer factors
b) Time factors
c) Climate factors
d) Other electric loads
e) Previous load values
f) Socio-economic situation
g) Market conditions
h) Regulatory framework of the electricity
supply industry
Customer Factors
• The first factor is related to the customer categories.
These usually are classified into industrial, commercial,
services, residential, agriculture, etc. Each customer
class must be sized according to energy
consumption and contribution to peak load.
• Moreover, the details of consumption for a typical
consumer from this category must be known.
Statistics of customer numbers, locations, type and
size of electricity consumption are key factors to be
collected. More importantly, the future estimates of
such statistics are also very much needed. This group
of factors helps in determining or designing certain
demand side management or energy efficiency
programs. It also identifies candidates for tariff
changes or certain regulatory measures.
Time Factors
• Time factors come into play because the
electric load varies with time. This variation is
important to consider as its effect on the total
load profile is great. Therefore, daily load curves
for each customer category or even sub-category
are needed. This information shows the pattern
of consumption during the day.
• The same is also needed for each month of the year
and the year as whole. From this data the shape of
the aggregate daily load curve is determined. The
seasonality of consumption comes from comparing
month by month. Finally, the overall annual load
curve determines the annual peak load, minimum
load, and their respective timing during the season
and the year. This group of factors helps in
determining the timing of certain demand side
management or energy efficiency programs.
Moreover, the impact on the total system
performance can be depicted from this information.
• Time factors are inter-related to climate factors
as explained later. Other loads that can be affected
by the time include seasonal tourism, and other
special national occasions. Also, on a daily scale
the variation of electric load from week day to
week end is very important.
Climate Factor
• Climate factors are those related to the climate
and weather expectations. There are certain climate
conditions that are fixed throughout the year for
each country. However, temperature variations and
climate changes have been witnessed in certain
regions of the world recently.
• The combination of both types of information gives
an insight on what to expect from the climate in the
near future. It should be understood that electric
loads are divided into weather-sensitive and non-
weather-sensitive loads. Time factors naturally affect
and shape the weather-sensitive loads. These include
heating or cooling loads. In certain countries that
have a clear dominance of residential and
commercial loads the effect of climate factors is of
paramount importance. In other countries where
producing sectors, such as industry, agriculture, and
services, represent the majority of total system load
these climate factors are of less importance.
Other Electric Loads
• The interaction of electric appliance loads is
another group of factors that have an influence
on load research. For example, if using certain
appliances requires the use of other appliances or if
it negates the need for other appliances, this will
have an effect on load profile and shape. On the
other hand the interchangeability among several
forms of energy to have a final use such as heating
or cooling have an impact on load research results.
Sometimes, switching from one form of energy
to another could take place because of efficiency
differences or tariff considerations.
Previous Load Values
• It is well known that electric loads have many
periodic patterns. This characteristic is often used to
attempt to predict future load values. Segmentation
of previous load values per customer class is needed
to be able to accurately predict future loads. This
information is essential for load forecasting.
Socio-economic Situation
• Socio-economic situation information includes
the sectoral as well as the national economic
production and efficiency measures. With this
information one can determine priorities for
load research activities, starting with the most
influential sectors. Moreover, government plans
for developing certain geographic areas or social
class of citizens must also be incorporated in load
research activities
• For example, if government plans to encourage the
establishment of large industrial or commercial
complex in one area, what will be the implications on
the electric power networks in that area?
• Information on income levels of various consumer
categories is also very important. This provides
insight on the willingness to participate in any
future energy efficiency or DSM programs.
Market Conditions
• Market conditions regarding availability of certain
appliances in the market as well as their market
share, competition, efficiency, prices, etc. are
important to load research. They determine the
possibility of switching from one form of energy to
another. They also determine the chances of success
of certain programs or projects. The competition
among electricity companies in an open market
situation enters into play here to attract customers.
Regulatory Framework of the Electricity Supply Industry
• Regulatory framework of the ESI determines the
speed and ease of introducing certain energy
efficiency programs. If the regulatory body offers
certain incentives for energy efficiency programs
then the electric companies will work hard to
implement such programs. If this is built in the tariff
determination process then it will be even more
pronounced.
LOAD MODELING
• Load modeling is the process whereby the planner
obtains adequate information regarding the variation
of load during a given time period. The difficulty in
load modeling is that information regarding electric
load or demand (MW) for all consumer groups is not
readily available. For those consumers that are
charged per their demand the information is logged,
while for all other consumers such as residential, small
commercial, small industrial and others only energy
consumption figures (KWh) are available. Therefore,
modeling is needed to derive demand consumption
details.
• The information collected and analyzed in load
research leading to estimating load modeling can be
classified into the following
➢ Consumption related information
➢ Market information
• The consumption related information is, in turn,
divided into
➢ appliance ownership statistics,
➢ consumption attitudes, trends and habits,
➢ awareness about cost of supply and energy
efficiency issues,
➢ willingness to participate in voluntary or
incentive-driven energy efficiency programs
• The appliance ownership statistics, along with
consumption attitudes; trends and habits, will
contribute to estimating demand curves for the
various consumer classes. The aggregation of such
information on the country level will result in
estimating the demand curves for the country.
Moreover, future changes and demand curves can
be extrapolated from such information.
• The information related to awareness about cost of
supply and energy efficiency is important to gauge
any present or future attitudes towards changing the
consumption pattern. On the one hand the
knowledge about cost of supply will drive the change
mechanism and formulate the motive. On the other
hand, the awareness about energy efficiency issues
will constitute the foundation and bases for energy
savings.
• Finally, the willingness-to-participate in energy
efficiency programs will modify the consumption
pattern and influence the change in consumption
• The market information can be divided to:
a) consumption drivers,
b) change drivers, and
c) exogenous drivers
• The consumption drivers are related to the socio-
economic status of the consumer. In particular this
information includes income, cost of living, inflation,
electricity tariff, social status, and living standard. This
information is combined with the consumption
related information to produce the consumption
figures.
• Change drivers on the other hand are related to
factors that will have some influence on
consumption. These include
• The exogenous drivers include the technological
trends regarding energy efficiency of electrical
appliances, development of the power system, and
deregulation of the electricity supply industry. In a
load research study, the objective is to formulate the
load curves of all consumer categories.
• The daily load curve is an essential building block for
achieving this objective. However, to have useful
information consumers must be divided into sub-
levels. The criterion in the division is to group all
consumers of the same category having the same
consumption trends. This division, within the same
consumer group, could be attributed to socio-
economic status, geographic location, tariff, etc.
• By doing this a sample is selected to represent each
sub-group. Then from analyzing the results of the
samples the overall consumption of the consumer
group can be derived. The aggregation overall
consumer groups will result in depicting consumption
curves for the overall system.
• The daily load consumption of typical customers is
shown in Table 3. The loads shown are the normalized
values referred to the peak load of the day.
• The corresponding daily load curves of these different
normalized demand types are shown
Typical daily load curves for various electric demands
SUMMARY
• Load research has a pivotal role in providing
accurate, valuable, and reliable data for the
decision making. This information is useful in many
power systems planning activities, including
➢ demand side management,
➢ tariff and regulatory decisions and agreements,
➢ financial planning,
➢ system expansion, and
➢ in customer service improvement
• Load research results provide a valuable input to
decision makers in the electricity companies prior to
embarking on any plan, project or program that
touches on the supply of power or power quality to
consumers. It involves huge amount of data to be
collected periodically and diligently. The information
not only covers technical matters, but it also covers
socio-economic and market information.
• Load research activities are carried out by electric
companies in order to know the appliance ownership
characteristics, load profile, and consumption habits
of the various consumers being served. With this
information the essential elements for taking any
decision are basically secured. Information
generated through load research serves several
business functions within the electricity company
such as load forecasting, energy efficiency and
demand side management, tariffs and power
purchase prices, power system expansion studies,
operation optimization of power system, customer
relationships and market preferences, load profiling
and consumption habits, socio-economic drives and
influencing factors, and competitive advantage and
benchmarking studies.
• The electric load is influenced by many factors. These
are called driving factors which determine how the
load is shaped during a given period of time. The
driving factors or influencing factors determine in
addition to the load profile the estimation of future
load profile including consumption pattern, peak
load, minimum load and load factor. The latter
parameter is a measure of the efficient use of the
power system. Higher load factor means better
utilization of plant and equipment installed to meet
customer loads.
• The driving factor include:
1) customer factors,
2) time factors,
3) climate factors,
4) other electric loads,
5) previous load values,
6) socio-economic situation,
7) market conditions, and
8) regulatory framework of the electricity supply
industry
• The information collected and analyzed in load
research leading to estimating load modeling can be
classified into the following:
o Consumption related information
o Market information
• The consumption related information is, in
turn, divided into
1) appliance ownership statistics,
2) consumption attitudes, trends, and habits,
 3) awareness about cost of supply and energy
efficiency issues,
4) willingness to participate in voluntary or
incentive-driven energy efficiency programs.
• The appliance ownership statistics, along with
consumption attitudes, trends and habits, will
contribute to estimating demand curves for the
various consumer classes. The aggregation of such
information on the country level will result in
estimating the demand curves for the country.
Moreover, future changes and demand curves can
be extrapolated from such information.
• The information related to awareness about cost of
supply and energy efficiency is important to gauge
any present or future attitudes towards changing the
consumption pattern. On the one hand the
knowledge about cost of supply will drive the change
mechanism and formulate the motive. On the other
hand, the awareness about energy efficiency issues
will constitute the foundation and bases for energy
savings. Finally, the willingness-to-participate in
energy efficiency programs will modify the
consumption pattern and influence the change in
consumption.
• The market information can be divided to:
a) consumption drivers,
b) change drivers, and
c) exogenous drivers.
• The consumption drivers are related to the socio-
economic status of the consumer. In particular this
information includes income, cost of living, inflation,
electricity tariff, social status, and living standard. This
information is combined with the consumption
related information to produce the consumption
figures.
• Change drivers on the other hand are related to
factors that will have some influence on
consumption. These include:
National economy parameters and future
estimation thereof
Population and demographic information
• The exogenous drivers include the technological
trends regarding energy efficiency of electrical
appliances, development of the power system, and
deregulation of the electricity supply industry.