RUSSIAN – UKRANIAN WAR

Case 1 - UNSC

JULY 5, 2023
ARAB LEAGUE MODEL UNITED NATIONS
Security council
Dear Delegates,

The United Nations Security Council has received a request by

(Ukraine) to conduct an urgent meeting to negotiate how Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a dramatic
escalation of the eight-year-old conflict that began with Russia’s
annexation of Crimea and signified a historic turning point for
European security. A year after the fighting began, many defense
and foreign policy analysts cast the war as a major strategic
blunder by Russian President Vladimir Putin. On February 24,
2022, during a last-ditch UN Security Council effort to dissuade
Russia from attacking Ukraine, Putin announced the beginning of
a full-scale land, sea, and air invasion of Ukraine targeting
Ukrainian military assets and cities across the country. To that,
the council has set an urgent meeting held at conferences hall on
the 5th and 6th of July to discuss the ongoing crisis and
recommend strategic solutions to combat its’ consequences.
The Russian-Ukrainian War, also known as the Donbass War, is an
ongoing armed conflict that began in 2014 between the Russian-backed
separatists in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass and the Ukrainian
government forces. The conflict erupted after the Ukrainian Revolution of
2014, which ousted the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, leading
to protests and civil unrest in Ukraine.

The reasons for the invasion are complex and multifaceted. One of the
main reasons is Russia's historical claim on Ukraine as part of its sphere of
influence. Russia has long viewed Ukraine as a buffer zone between itself
and NATO, and thus has sought to maintain a level of control over
Ukraine's political and economic policies. Additionally, the Russian-
speaking population in Ukraine, particularly in the eastern regions, has felt
marginalized by the Ukrainian government, leading to tensions and a desire
for greater autonomy.

The conflict escalated in February 2014 when Russian troops annexed

Crimea, a Ukrainian territory with a large ethnic Russian population. The
annexation was widely condemned by the international community as a
violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, leading to
economic sanctions against Russia.

In the following months, pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, with

the support of Russian military and intelligence forces, began seizing
control of towns and cities in the Donbass region. The Ukrainian
government launched a military operation to retake the territories, resulting
in a violent conflict that has claimed more than 13,000 lives and displaced
over 1.5 million people.

The war has had a significant impact on the relationship between Russia
and NATO. Russia has accused NATO of expansionism and encroachment
on its borders, while NATO has criticized Russia's actions in Ukraine as a
violation of international law. The conflict has also led to increased tensions
between Russia and Western countries, with economic sanctions being
imposed on Russia and NATO increasing its military presence in Eastern
Europe as a deterrent.

In summary, the Russian-Ukrainian War is a complex conflict with

historical, political, and ethnic roots. Russia's annexation of Crimea and
support of separatists in eastern Ukraine has led to a violent conflict that
has claimed thousands of lives and displaced millions. The conflict has also
had a significant impact on Russia's relationship with NATO and the
international community.
 Countries Picked to attend the conference

Brazil

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to have a significant

direct impact on Brazil, as the two countries are not major trading
partners and do not have significant political or military ties. However,
the conflict could have indirect impacts on Brazil, particularly in terms of
global economic and political stability. The conflict has the potential to
cause disruption to global energy markets, as Russia is a major
producer and exporter of oil and gas. Any disruption to energy supplies
could lead to increased energy prices, which could have knock-on
effects on the global economy, including Brazil.

China

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China's position has been

ambivalent. On one hand, it has blamed enlargement of NATO, which
Russia has stated as a reason for starting the war. On the other hand, it
has stressed respect for Ukraine's territorial integrity. China has not
condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has abstained during
United Nations votes on the war in Ukraine. Although the Government of
China has objected to economic sanctions against Russia, its companies
have largely complied with them.
France

Like other European countries, the war in Ukraine has had a significant
impact on France's economy and society, as socioeconomic anxiety has
grown from the energy crisis associated with the war and its effect on prices
and the cost of living. At their meeting in Paris on 14 May 2023, the
Presidents of Ukraine and the French Republic issued the following
declaration. The presidents of Ukraine and France reiterated their
unequivocal condemnation of Russia's ongoing war of aggression against
Ukraine.

Germany

Germany has strong economic ties with both Russia and Ukraine.
The conflict has disrupted trade relations, particularly between
Russia and the European Union, leading to a decline in German
exports to Russia. Germany has also faced increased costs due
to sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU. The war has caused a
significant displacement of people within Ukraine and led to a
wave of Ukrainian refugees seeking asylum in Germany.
Germany has received a large number of Ukrainian asylum
seekers, adding to the ongoing refugee situation in the country.
Israel

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has broader geopolitical implications. It may

affect the balance of power in the region, influence international relations,
and potentially impact Israel's strategic environment. Israel will likely
monitor these developments to understand how they could shape regional
dynamics and potentially impact its own interests and relationships. Israel
maintains diplomatic relations with both Russia and Ukraine. The conflict
could impact diplomatic dynamics and relationships in the region. Israel
may engage in diplomatic efforts to promote stability, peace, and a peaceful
resolution to the conflict. It could also navigate its relationships with Russia
and Ukraine based on its own national interests and considerations.

Japan

Japan, as a member of the international community, may be

involved in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict peacefully. It
might engage in diplomatic negotiations, support international
organizations' initiatives, or provide humanitarian aid to affected
regions. In the long term, Japan might reevaluate its energy
strategy and focus on diversifying its energy sources to reduce
dependence on specific regions. The conflict could serve as a
reminder of the risks associated with relying heavily on energy imports
from a volatile region.
Malta

In the event of an escalation of the conflict or a significant humanitarian crisis,

there could be an increase in migration flows from affected regions. Malta,
being an EU member state situated in the Mediterranean, may face challenges
related to migration and refugees. The conflict can lead to economic
repercussions, including trade disruptions and sanctions. As a member of the
EU, Malta would be part of the collective EU response to impose economic
sanctions on Russia. These sanctions can affect bilateral trade and investment
between Malta and Russia, as well as have broader economic implications for
the EU as a whole.

Poland

Poland, which shares a border with Ukraine, has been concerned about the
conflict from the outset, and has supported Ukraine in its efforts to resist
Russian aggression. Poland has provided military and humanitarian aid to
Ukraine, and has been a vocal supporter of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial
integrity. The conflict has also had implications for Poland's security. Poland
has been one of the most vocal critics of Russia's actions in Ukraine, and has
been a strong advocate for NATO's increased presence in the region. Poland
has also taken steps to modernize its military and increase its defense
spending in response to the conflict.
Russia

The economic impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

began in late February 2022, in the days after Russia recognized
two breakaway Ukrainian republics and launched an invasion of
Ukraine. The subsequent economic sanctions have targeted large
parts of the Russian economy, Russian oligarchs, and members of
the Russian government. Russia has responded with sanctions of
its own. A wave of protests and strikes have occurred across
Europe against the rise of bills and living expenses.

Switzerland

The conflict in Ukraine and its potential consequences may have implications
for Switzerland's security concerns. Switzerland, as a neutral country, values
stability and peace in Europe. It will likely monitor the situation closely to
assess any potential impacts on regional security dynamics or the broader
European security landscape. The Russian-Ukrainian war could indirectly affect
Switzerland's economy through various channels. For example, if the conflict
leads to broader regional instability, it may impact investor confidence, financial
markets, or trade relations, which could have ripple effects on the Swiss
economy.
Turkey

The war in Ukraine has led to sharp hikes in prices for energy and other
commodities where Turkey is reliant on imports. Over the past 10
years, the country spent an average of $45 billion on imports of
crude/refined oil, coal, and natural gas. In 2021, when Brent crude
averaged $72 per barrel, the total energy bill hovered at around $55
billion. As of March 23, Brent is currently trading at $120. Even if the
oil price stabilizes at around $100 per barrel, the energy bill may soar
to $65-75 billion this year. The total will also depend on how much
energy is consumed for heating (where the weather is a factor) and
electricity generation (as drought affects hydroelectric power plants).

United Arab of Emirates

The UAE has been involved in providing humanitarian aid and

assistance to countries affected by conflicts and crises. Although the
UAE's Involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian war may be limited, it
could contribute to international efforts to support affected
populations, such as providing humanitarian aid or financial
assistance to Ukraine or displaced persons.
The conflict may lead to economic and political uncertainties, which
could potentially impact international investment and trade. If the
conflict escalates or prolongs, it may create an atmosphere of
instability that could affect investor confidence.
 United States of America

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had an important

impact on the US economic and political outlook
this year. The conflict drove up global commodity
prices, fueling inflation and weighing on US
economic growth. Closer China-Russia co-
operation, with China representing Russia’s sole
financial lifeline, will worsen US-China ties even
further.

United Kingdom

The UK is less exposed to the direct trade effects of

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than its European
neighbors. However, both the indirect and longer-
term effects on UK trade are potentially significant.
The impacts on the UK banking system are more
likely to come, through the general impact of higher
inflation and lower economic activity on banks’
balance sheets.
Ukraine

In some ways, rebuilding Ukraine may be more financially

difficult than conducting the war itself. The country has
already suffered levels of damage not seen in Europe since
World War II, and it took 20 to 30 years for Germany and
the United Kingdom to rebuild after the war. The United
States has so far given the most—$47.9 billion—to Ukraine,
but nearly all of it has been given in military and
humanitarian aid, while EU countries have provided the
largest amount of financial assistance.