SPE-203334-MS

Designing Drilling Fluids Advisory System

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Abdullah Saleh Al-Yam, Vikrant B Wagle, Mohammed Murif Al-Rubaii, and Ziaudeen Abubacker, Saudi ARAMCO

Copyright 2020, Society of Petroleum Engineers

This paper was prepared for presentation at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference to be held in Abu Dhabi, UAE, 9 – 12 November 2020.
Due to COVID-19 the physical event was changed to a virtual event. The official proceedings were published online on 9 November 2020.

This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents
of the paper have not been reviewed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and are subject to correction by the author(s). The material does not necessarily reflect
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consent of the Society of Petroleum Engineers is prohibited. Permission to reproduce in print is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words; illustrations may
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Abstract
Suitable drilling fluid with suitable properties is a critical factor in successful drilling and completion
operations. Drilling fluids consultant will need information such as formation lithology, wellbore geometry,
temperature, pressure to be able to formulate fluids for different sections. Drilling fluids consultants' job is to
aid drilling engineers and scientists to formulate effective drilling fluids systems for the entire well sections.
The paper describes a drilling fluid advisory system with demonstrating examples to the end user. The
advisory system includes a Bayesian decision network (BDN) model that utilize inputs such as temperature
and pressure and provide drilling fluids formulations based on Bayesian probability determinations.
A number of drilling fluid specialists/experts feedback were gathered to develop the drilling fluid
advisory system. The drilling fluid specialists/experts feedback were used to design Bayesian Network
Model that would allow the end-user to take an elementary data set to obtain optimum recommendations
in the area of drilling fluids.

Introduction
Shortage of expertise motivates researchers to gather and develop expert or advisory systems for knowledge
sharing and to ensure that the industry does not run out of experts of consultants. Expert systems are defined
as knowledge processing to allow computers to produce certain tasks similar or better than human specialists
do, Hayes-Roth (1987).
Another definition of Expert system can be as "An interactive computer-based decision tool that simulates
the thought process of a human expert to solve complex problems in a specific domain." "We need experts
system because of limitations in expertise, working memory, insufficient maintenance of significant data
and biased opinions", (Pandey and Osisanya 2001).
We need previous experience to be able to develop advisory system with a good degree of confidence. The
most important factor for drilling operations success according to the authors of this paper are experience
and knowledge transfer.
Al-Yami et al. (2012) have explain how different companies can come up with different methods or
manuals to setup guidelines that cannot be used by other operators. Experts' opinions such as Drilling Ligand
Mr. Rhem Bill and Dr. Jerome Schubert through their publications or consultation were used to develop
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advisory systems for underbalanced drilling advisory systems and well control advisory system. They were
able to develop a drilling expert system for different area such as cementing, completion, well control, and
underbalanced drilling utilizing Bayesian network.
Al-Yami et al. (2012) have proposed a set of guidelines in different drilling specialties utilizing Artificial
Bayesian Intelligence where optimum practices collected from literature review and experts' opinions to
simulate likely scenarios of its use that will honor efficient practices when dictated by varying certain
parameters.
In Bayesian Networks, we use nodes to represent variables either discrete or continuous to show the

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influences among the variables (nodes). A node is named a parent of another node named child if we have an
arc from the parent to the child. Arcs present direct dependencies. Probability or Evidence can be introduced
to the Bayesian Network at any node for updating. We always start with initial definition or initial assignment
of conditional probability distribution to each node, (Korb and Nicholson, 2004). The effect of interventions,
immediate changes are easily predicted also we can update inferences as we have new evidence.
Kravis et al. (2002) have used Bayesian Network to evaluate several parameters to enhance well quality
in deep-water environment. Example are caliper, skin factor, trajectory, ROP, and lost rig time.
Rasheva and Bratvold (2011) have found Bayesian Network flexible and practical to evaluate prospect
dependencies. Optimum placement of horizontal wells were done utilizing Expert opinions, and real-time
data to construct Bayesian Network. The graphical design shows joint probability distribution in decisions,
uncertainties, and values were demonstrated using graphical designs where a decision node is shown as
rectangle and a chance node as oval (Rasheva and Bratvold 2011).
Casing setting depth was selected in North Sea utilizing Bayesian Network. Experts will first assign
unconditional marginal probability distribution of the nodes without parents. Then, experts will assign
conditional probability distribution for each node, (Rajaieyamchee and Bratvold 2009). Bayesian network
was also used to develop drilling engineering advisory system for high pressure. The system will give
recommendation to aid drilling engineers to select if they need to circulate, increase mud weight, set a
casing, plug back, etc., (Giese and Bratvold 2010).
Zerafat et al. (2011) have used Bayesian network in determining proper EOR methods in Iranian
southwest formation. They found out that CO2 flooding is the most practical method. Bayesian Network
was used in the following scenarios:

• To assess the risk from nuclear waste disposal, Lee et al. (2005).

• To model flow to select the model with greatest uncertainty at the boundaries, Abbaspour et al.
(2000).
• For Hydrodynamic behavior characterization, Ferraresi et al. (1996) and most probable areas of
salinity sources distribution in the Gaza aquifer, Ghabayen et al. (2006).
• For pipeline leak detection, Carpenter et al. (2003).

• To design models to support geo-steering decisions, Lloyed et al. (1990),

The work done by Alouhali et al. 2018 and other focused on discriminative modeling where the objective
is to know probability of an event given an input or parameter. Bayesian network allow us to do joint
distribution utilizing graphical models, Al-Yami et al. 2015a-g
Alouhali et al. 2018 have shown that Bayesian network model perform less accurately compared to
Decision Tree and KNN but still produce acceptable correlation. However, we believe that the only machine-
learning tool that allow us to deal with joint uncertainties is Bayesian network. It is way harder to learn joint
probability distribution of data set than learning about conditional probability. All machines learning model
including Bayesian Network allow observational inferences. However, only Bayesian network allow causal
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interventions. Dashevski et al. (1999) and Stoner (2003) have shown that non-Bayesian network approaches
have the following limitations:

• Adding new rules or changes require programming again because knowledge database and
inference algorithms are inseparable.
• The previous approaches are limited in their ability to make decisions under uncertainty.

Bayesian network is useful to deal with missing data sets. The reason of that the modeling here is done

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for joint distribution where claims of data generation will reduce dependency in having complete observed
dataset. Bayesian network will enable us to find cause and effect when we do a modeling that cannot be
done using other machine learning tools. However, Subjectivity is a limitation of Bayesian network when
handling prior belief, Zerafat et al. (2011).
Al-Yami et al. (2010) proposed a detailed approach to develop advisory systems. This advisory system
can help drilling engineers in selecting and executing successful recommendation utilizing Artificial
Bayesian Intelligence utilizing below equation:

Al-Yami et al. (2016) has shown the difference between frequentist statistics and Bayesian statistics.
Al-Yami et al., 2020, demonstrated detailed proof of concept of Bayesian network in developing a small
drilling fluid advisory.
To design a Bayesian we need to do the following

• To include all variables that are important in the modeling

• Link variables in terms of causes and effects using causal knowledge

• Use prior knowledge to specify conditional distributions.

The objective of this research is to propose models in the area of drilling fluids utilizing Bayesian network
to serve as training tools or a guide to aid drilling engineers and scientists.

Drilling Fluid Advisory Model

A number of drilling fluid specialists/experts feedback were gathered to develop the drilling fluid advisory
system shown in Fig.1. Variable nodes allow the user to input required condition that allows for generating
corresponding optimum drilling fluids formulation. The model contains one decision (recommended drilling
fluids) which has three uncertainties and one consequence node. The first uncertainty node allow the user
to select required temperature range, Fig.2.
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Figure 1—Overall model of drilling fluids expert system

Figure 2—Temperature range

The second uncertainty node allow the user to select potential hole problems, Fig.3. The third node is
related to the second, which is the formation name. Sometimes, the only available information for the drilling
engineer is the formation name. The model will inform the user about the expected potential hole problem
based on the formation name, Fig.3.
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Figure 3—A list of possible potential hole problems

The user can select any potential hole problem he suspect to have for example formation damage, Fig.4.
The user can select a temperature range for example 220 to 330 °F, Fig. 5. Recommended drilling fluid
formulations are shown in Fig. 6.

Figure 4—Selecting formation damage as a potential hole problem (example 1)

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Figure 6—Possible drilling fluids recommendation for the selected conditions

Figure 5—Selecting temperature range
6
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If the selected conditions ended up with no options i.e. all zero that means that there is no recommendation
for the given inputs, Figs.7-9. In other words, we missed this possible scenario. This can be added to the
advisory system easily.

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Figure 7—Selecting temperature range

Figure 8—Selecting potential hole problem

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Figure 9—No possible formulation yet

Fig. 10 shows the initial probabilities assignment of potential hole problem. If the user does not know
what to expect and he only knows the formation to be drilled he can select that from the options available
in the formation node. For example, Fig. 11 shows the potential hole problem based on selected formation
name.

Figure 10—Initial probabilities assignment of potential hole problem

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Figure 11—Potential hole problem based on formation selection as input

A Software tools for user interface engineers was developed for the work in this paper. Which can be
used to show the formulation at any selected conditions, Fig. 12. The system can also tell the user that the
outcome does not exist because the developer did not include them as output, Fig. 13. The system also can
tell the user when he put non-compatible inputs, Fig.14.

Figure 12—Software tools for user interface engineers

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Figure 13—The outcome does not exist because the developer did not include them as output

Figure 14—The system also can tell the user when he put non-compatible inputs
SPE-203334-MS 11

We can change the states of probabilities if we have different opinions or feedback from drilling fluids
consultants. We can also update the model if we find out that we need to expand it to include other
uncertainties or inputs.

Conclusions
• The paper describes a drilling fluid advisory system with demonstrating examples to the end user.
The advisory system includes a Bayesian decision network (BDN) model that utilize inputs such

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as temperature and pressure and provide drilling fluids formulations based on Bayesian probability
determinations.
• A number of drilling fluid specialists/experts feedback were gathered to develop the drilling fluid
advisory system. The drilling fluid specialists/experts feedback were used to design Bayesian
Network Model that would allow the end-user to take an elementary data set to obtain optimum
recommendations in the area of drilling fluids.
• The flexibility of Bayesian network in terms of updating the structure model and its beliefs makes
this method the first systematic approach to build experts systems.

Nomenclature
API American petroleum institute
Bc Bearden units of consistency
bpm Barrels per minute
Bwoc By weight of cement
CCA Casing to casing annulus
DV Differential valve
0F Degrees fahrenheit
ft Feet
Gal Gallons
gal/sack Gallons per sack of cement
hrs. Hours
in Inches
lbf Pounds of force
lbm/ft3 Pounds per cubic foot
MD Measured depth
min Minutes
pcf Pound-force per cubic foot
psi Pounds per square inch
SBS Shear bond strength
SCP Sustained casing pressure
TVD True vertical depth
UCA Ultrasonic cement analyzer
WOC Waiting on cement
TOC Top of cement

SI Metric Conversion Factors

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in. 2.54* E 02 = m

(°F-32) / 1.8* E+00 = °C

ft × 3.048* E 01 = m
gal × 3.785 412E 03 = m3
lbm × 4.535 924E 01 = kg

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psi × 6.894 757E-03 = Mpa
lbm/gal× 1.198 26E-01 = S.G
bbl × 1.58987E-01 = m3
* Conversion is exact.

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