Chapter 3

Literature Survey

This chapter presents the literature survey on various research works done in the field of
crowd gathering. These works cover the areas such as analyzing crowd behaviour, evalu-
ating pedestrian behaviour in evacuation scenarios, analysis of different tragic incidents
and its consequences, effect of infrastructural design of the venue on pedestrian behaviour,
evaluation of different features of crowd dynamics and the use of modelling and simulation
technology.
The chapter is structured as follows. Section 3.1 describes in detail the categorization
of studies related to crowd gatherings. Section 3.2 presents the literature review done to
study crowd behaviour in emergency situations and the relevant research gaps. Section 3.3
presents the literature survey done to analyze the effect on crowd behaviour with respect
different architectural designs and the relevant research gaps. Section 3.4 discusses on the
research works performed to analyze pedestrian behaviour at metro/railway stations and
the relevant research gaps. Section 3.5 presents research works done on the huge crowd
gathering scenarios at different religious and non-religious sites and the relevant research
gaps.

3.1 Categorization of related work

On the basis of our literature survey, studies related to crowd gatherings can be classified
into four different categories as shown in Fig.3.1. In the first category, those studies
are grouped that have made comprehensive discussions on the causes of disastrous event
in huge gatherings and the needed rectifications to avoid tragic incidents in future. The

28
studies done in [84, 146, 60, 91, 74] discussed different incidents of crowd disaster happened
in India and other countries.

Causes
Related to specific
disastrous event
Rectification

Fundamental Concepts
Related to Crowd
dynamics
Mathematical Concepts

Macroscopic Modelling
Category (Fluid dynamics, QR, etc)
of studies
on Crowd Related to
Mesoscopic Modelling
Gatherings Crowd Modelling
(region-based, etc)
Approaches

Microscopic Modelling
(SF, CA, ABM etc)

Evaluation of Crowd
Related to Behaviour Parameters
Crowd Simulation
using Crowd
Analysis of
Simulation Tool
Infrastructure/Venue
of Crowd Gathering

Figure 3.1: Classification of Studies on Crowd Gatherings

They have mentioned several reasons of crowd disaster incidents such as suboptimal
infrastructural design of the venue, fire explosions, inefficient preparedness, dynamicity in
crowd behaviour, random rush, accommodation capacity, narrow pathways etc.
Second category presents the studies [146, 23, 46, 162, 131, 166] that are done to ana-
lyze different features of crowd dynamics. In some of the studies, real empirical data of the
crowd gathering event are utilized to evaluate and define different crowd calibration pa-
rameter values. For example, density threshold for moving and standing crowd, threshold
for the pressure created in high density, maximum bearable pressure for a person, force
exertion (leaning and pushing) by an individual in crowd, threshold for these forces etc.
While some studies have performed experiments with the help of volunteers to understand

29
the crowd behaviour in normal and emergency situations. All these studies have provided
different fundamental and mathematical concepts that define the dynamicity of crowd and
its behaviour.
Third category includes the studies that are performed to analyze type of approaches
utilized for modelling the crowd behaviour. According to these studies there are three mo-
delling approaches macroscopic, mesoscopic and microscopic. We have already discussed
about these approaches in Chapter 1. All the approaches utilize different type of techni-
ques to model crowd behaviour. For example, Qualitative Reasoning (QR), fluid dynamics
etc. are used to model macroscopic crowd behaviour [57, 56]. Grid-based, region-based,
packet-based techniques are used as mesoscopic approach in [135, 49, 151] to model pede-
strian behaviour in evacuation scenarios. Further, Social Force Model, Cellular Automata
and Agent Based modelling techniques are utilized in [73, 174, 175, 143, 107, 40] to model
crowd behaviour at microscopic level.
Fourth category is the collection of research works [6, 32, 41, 8, 3, 66, 96, 154, 157,
119, 18, 45, 52, 79, 83, 85, 156, 38, 42, 95, 120, 129, 164, 167, 182, 4, 97, 101, 106, 109,
114, 115, 176, 179] that are made in the direction of modelling and simulation of virtual
crowd gathering scenarios with the help of crowd simulation tools. These studies are
done 1) to analyze the crowd behaviour in different scenarios from different study aspects
such as pedestrian movement at metro station, emergency evacuation from a building,
characteristic features (congestion points, bottlenecks, sudden changes in crowd density
etc.) that affect the behaviour of crowd etc. and 2) to evaluate the pros and cons of
infrastructural design of the site (stadium, mall, metro-station, religious site, airport etc.)
with respect to the dynamic crowd behaviour.
Precisely, we can state that there are several academic research works on the study of
crowd dynamics and, pedestrian movement and flow behaviour from different aspects. For
example, emergency evacuation in different structural designs, survey on crowd related
disasters, mathematical formulations, etc. To perform these studies different approaches
are utilized such as experimental gathering, modelling and simulation, use of non-human
organism, etc. However, to the best of our knowledge, the work described in this thesis
presents a different objective and an innovative idea of utilizing Agent Based Modelling
(ABM), specifically in an Indian context. Our objective is towards the utilization of micro-
level modelling approach 1) to test and evaluate crowd management strategies planned by
the authorities to handle huge gatherings of pilgrims before actual deployment and 2) for

30
the evaluation of architectural designs of an ancient sacred site.
In our research work, we have utilized the above mentioned studies to develop an ap-
propriate platform for Kumbh Mela like gatherings which can be utilized by the adminis-
tration to test and evaluate their crowd management strategies under different situations.
We have used these studies in the following manner 1) referred the survey data from the
first category, 2) utilized mathematical and fundamental concepts from the second ca-
tegory, 3) opted Agent Based micro-modelling approach from the third category and 4)
developed crowd simulation models with the help of two simulation tools (NetLogo and
AnyLogic).
Apart from this, we have used some standard parameters and assumed their values
based on the existing mathematical concepts, fundamental relationships and basic princi-
ples. These standard parameters are related to the 1) actions and reactions of individuals
in crowd and 2) behaviour of crowd as a whole. With the help of these concepts and
principles we were able to program different actions and behaviour of synthetic agents
in our models. For example, we have incorporated social force model, density threshold
(persons per meter square), pressure and force measurements, energy level, etc. We also
have defined normal movement, speed acceleration and deceleration, obstacle avoidance,
random rush, spread of rumour, etc.
Measurement bar for the parameters such as pressure, force, density, etc. would be
approximately similar in all the crowded situations irrespective of the type of crowd and
its behaviour. In general, a normal human being (male or female) would exert force, feel
pressure, loss or gain energy, occupy one-fourth of the area per square meter etc. As per
this assumption, we have calibrated the values of such parameters based on the existing
studies from the experts (John J. fruin, D. helbing, G Kieth Still etc.).
In the following sections, we have presented the literature survey of relevant works
done in the field of Agent Based Modelling and are related to our four different tasks.

3.2 Efforts related to evacuation scenarios

Several research efforts [6, 41, 96, 154, 157, 119] have been made towards utilizing Agent
Based Modelling approach to simulate the pedestrian behaviour in emergency evacuation
scenarios. Similarly, Agent Based Simulation models developed in [32, 8, 18] are utilized
to study human behaviours during the evacuation process at different locations and in

31
different conditions.
In [119], a simulation system is designed using MASSEgress tool to understand human
social behaviours in emergency. They have selected the design of a floor plan of an office
building to demonstrate their system. Their model is able to simulate emergent human
social behaviours at microscopic level. An agent-based evacuation simulation is performed
in [157] with the help of NetLogo tool incorporating the concepts of collision avoidance
and obstacle avoidance. They adopted a Leader-Follower and Leaver approach to measure
efficient evacuation in terms of evacuation rate and collision rate. The model is designed
to find best floor plans or building configurations with respect to evacuation behaviour.
However, in both these models, simulations are performed with limited number of agents
on a very simple environmental framework. In [6], an Agent Based Simulation framework
is developed in NetLogo to simulate the evacuation scenario. The evacuation behaviour
is observed for the exit of agents from a small room with the adjustment of number of
exit gates. They have created a very simple and basic model with a focus on concep-
tualizing their observations for real world. The model requires higher degree of validity
by incorporating more realistic features with different layouts of the environment such
as hallways and obstacles, public exhibition pavilions or concert houses, etc. In [8], an
agent-based model is created to simulate evacuation behaviour of pedestrian in a Chinese
supermarket and an international university of the Netherlands. They have conducted
a sensitivity analysis to test the influence of variation in pre-evacuation time and exit
choice on evacuation time. Though they have taken two different test cases but have not
incorporated detailed behaviour of agents such as emergence, stochasticity etc. Besides
this, the environmental scenarios in both the model of this work is similar i.e. floor of two
different buildings. Analysis can be performed on another type of scenarios such as open
areas, stadium, public squares, airports etc.
An integrated Multi-Agent and GIS based system is presented in [18]. The integrated
technology is utilized to model evacuation scenarios for a complex environment. The model
simulates human behaviour in Hongshan square which is a multi-exit public place. They
have considered a normal evacuation process with the existing and modified exit designs
instead of an emergency situation. This is done to estimate the in-time distribution of
persons during emergency. However, the behaviour of crowd during emergency evacuation
is very different from that of normal situations. Similarly, a fundamental framework is
given in [32] to create spatially-aware agent based models with time-aware Geographic

32
Information System (GIS) for emergency evacuations in the hazardous situation of chemi-
cal explosion. In addition to this, [41] has used ABM to simulate spread of rumour and
demonstrated the integration of Geographic Information System and Agent Based Model
to explore humanitarian relief at the individual level. In [154], both ABM and GIS techni-
ques are utilized together to model riotous crowd using behaviour driven computational
agents. This model used geographical attributes to study different set of scenarios for riot
formation, evolution, and dissolution.
In addition to these research works, a study is done in [96], to simulate long crowded
queue at temples to monitor and avoid occurrences of stampedes. They have developed
a multi-agent system and utilized some external robotic agents that are placed at certain
height above the queue of people to manage them. They have developed an algorithm to
figure out required number of robots to monitor sub-queues.
The aforementioned efforts have given a deep insight in modelling evacuation scenarios
either from a building or public places with respect to the safety of crowd. In some of
the works, evacuation process is evaluated for the normal exit situations while in some
of the works evacuation process is analyzed for emergency scenarios. However, apart
from [96], the other works are not designed for the huge crowd gathering scenarios inside
the premises of temples specifically in Indian context. Analysis of such crowd gathering
scenarios with respect to crowd safety is important because there exist several ancient
temples (refer Chapter 1) in India that have high religious significance and experiences
frequent gathering of pilgrims. The behaviour of pilgrims depends on many factors for
example their demography, education level, gender, age, understanding capability, dialects,
etc. Besides this, pilgrims have a defined goal of getting a better view of an idol and also
to do the religious activities inside the sanctum sanctorum. They don’t want to leave the
sanctum sanctorum till they finish all the rituals. This makes the sanctum sanctorum and
other regions of temple premises crowded which may result in pushing and suffocation. It
makes such gatherings very different and complex in terms of dynamicity in the behaviour
of crowd.
Further, the existing studies on crowd gatherings have not emphasized on the need
of testing and evaluation of crowd management and control strategies planned by the
authorities of the event. It could be a good practice if their strategies are analyzed and
tested with the help of modelling and simulation techniques. This may help to check
the effectiveness of the planned strategies and to decide whether these can be followed or

33
require some modification before actual deployment.
As discussed in Chapter 1, the Kumbh Mela pilgrims wish to visit ancient pilgrimage
sites of Prayagraj during the festival. Alopi Devi temple is one among the many other im-
portant sites. Generally, huge surge of crowd is experienced at this temple during Kumbh
Mela. But, the sub-optimal infrastructural design and the congestion due to nearby encro-
achment make it relatively complex for administrators to manage huge crowd gatherings.
This motivated us to utilize the modelling and simulation technique, to create a near to
real virtual environment of Alopi Devi temple and simulate crowd gathering scenarios with
the help of synthetic agents. This provides an appropriate platform to the administration
which can be utilized by them for recreating near-to-real panic situations and, to test and
evaluate existing crowd control strategies under these situations. This platform can assist
in formulating efficient crowd management strategies and their evaluation before actual
deployment.

3.3 Efforts related to architectural assessment

Significant research efforts have been made to analyze the impact of complex architectural
design in pedestrian movement and flow behaviour [45, 52, 79, 83, 156, 85] in the normal
and emergency evacuation scenarios. In some of the researches, empirical experiments
are conducted on non-human organism [50, 141, 138, 139, 140] to analyze their movement
behaviour. These experiments suggest that an analogy exist between non-human orga-
nism and pedestrian movement behaviour. Some research efforts are made in the small
laboratory setups to perform experiments with the help of human participants to ana-
lyze their behaviour under normal walking, blocked vision and slow running situations
[47, 137, 142, 30] in different structures of pathway.
In [50], the impacts of complex architectural configurations such as turning, crossings
and merging points on the collective pedestrian movement is investigated to assure safety
under high density and emergency situations. In [139], experiments with ants are per-
formed to test the effectiveness of architectural adjustments within a defined escape area
under panic situation. They have shown that such adjustment in panic prone areas can
reduce the evacuation time by more than 90
In [137], the pedestrian movement is examined with different merging angles and flow
direction under slow running and blocked vision condition. This is done to analyze the

34
influence of merging angles on pedestrian flows. Performance of two exit locations (middle
and corner) is compared in [142] to analyze the outflow and safety of pedestrian under
normal walking and slow running conditions. However, [64] have violated a common
assumption that the movement behaviour of pedestrians expected in real gatherings is
more or less same as that observed in experimental gatherings. They further suggested
that there is a need to calibrate and validate the observations from real-world scenarios
with the help of simulation tools. In [30], experiments are performed with Indian and
the German group of test persons to study fundamental relationship between speed and
density. Their experiments are performed for two different lengths of corridor. They have
observed thatIndian groups of test persons are less sensitive to increase in density and thus
the spatial distance is smaller as compared to theGerman group.From their observation,
they have suggested that one cause for the differences is due to culture. Although, for
strong conclusion about cultural differencesmore experiments with various cultures and
test group combinations are required.
Modelling and simulation technique is also utilized in many research works to explore
the crowd flow behaviour in different architectural design. In [52], architectural adjust-
ments are examined to improve the pedestrian flow out of the large room. A simulation
tool is developed by W. Daamen in[45] to model passenger flow in larger public transport
facilities and other public spaces and to support designers for optimizing their designs.
A detailed analysis is done on the design issues of buildings for safe evacuation in[83].
It is argued that, event planner must have to consider space dimension of the venue in
their planning strategies. In [47], calibration of pedestrian simulation is used to assess
pedestrian behaviour around emergency doors with respect to their design and capacity.
A model is created in NetLogo by Q.M ilyas in [85] to simulate and analyze the impact of
three different shapes that are circle, ellipse and deformed ellipse of Jamarat pillar where
pilgrims perform Ramy. They have suggested that the existing elliptical shape of Jamarat
pillar outperforms with respect to range of Ramy, time to do Ramy and queue threshold.
But in their work they have simulated the model for very less number of Hajji’s.
The aforementioned research works utilized different approaches to study crowd flow
behaviour in normal and emergency scenarios. Some research works did empirical expe-
riments on temporary structural arrangements in the field with the help of volunteers to
analyze the impact in pedestrian flow behaviour. Others have utilized simulation methods

35
to analyze the effect of basic structural arrangements (e.g. a large room or narrow en-
try/exit point of any building etc.) on crowd flow behaviour in the situations of emergency
evacuation. Different experimental observations are also done to calibrate and validate the
simulation models. In few of the works different areas of any large building (e.g. hotel,
malls) are mathematically analyzed for the security and safety purposes of pedestrians.
Though there are many studies on the analysis of architectural assessment with respect
to pedestrian flow behaviour and emergency evacuations but to the best of our knowledge, a
detailed evaluation of architectural modifications on an ancient religious monument using a
micro-level modelling approach has not been done. This motivated us to utilize a modelling
and simulation technique, to explore the architectural design of Alopi Devi temple and
evaluate the impacts of different design alternatives on crowd inside the premises.

3.4 Efforts related to metro/railway stations

There exists wide range of academic research on different aspects of pedestrian flow behavi-
our at railway stations. Some of the studies observed and analyzed their behaviour based
on empirical experiments [37, 54, 94, 122] or with the help of video-based observations
[35, 76, 134]. Conversely, there are studies that utilized modelling and simulation techni-
ques either to analyze pedestrian behaviour at the railway station or for the architectural
assessment of railway station [38, 42, 95, 120, 129, 164, 167, 182].
In [94], factors that affect passenger’s choice to board the specific car of a train are
investigated. They revealed that motivation to minimize the walking distance between
alighting point and exit at destination station is the most decisive factor in determining
passenger’s choice. In [122], behaviour of passengers is explored on the railway platform
before and after the arrival of trains at two different stations that are Stockholm, Sweden
and Tokyo, Japan. They also investigated the effect of announcements, seats and entrances
along the platform have on their behaviour. The investigation is done to find advantages
and the shortcomings, and to propose required improvements in the settings of these
platforms. Different reasons are given by Fernandez et. al. in [54] for the saturated
flow in public transport doors when passengers alights the vehicle. They processed the
recorded videos to evaluate the saturation level based on vertical gap between the platform
and the vehicle chassis, and the width of the door. In [37], time-lapse photography survey
is performed on the pedestrian behaviour of route choice between escalators and stairways

36
at Hong Kong metro stations during peak hours. They used pedestrian flow and travel
time relationship as a function of prevailing traffic conditions to predict the percentage of
escalator users as well as stairway users for both ascending and descending directions.
A video-based observational studies is done in [76], to explore the pedestrian movement
behaviour in South African railway station environments. They particularly examined the
effect of various factors such as personal, situational, environmental etc. on the fundamen-
tal relationship of speed, density and flow which can be applied to calibrate the microscopic
pedestrian models. A survey is performed by Jiten Shah et. al. [134] at Vadodara rail-
way station to study the pedestrian flow behaviour on stairways of different dimensions.
They utilized video graphic technique to extract pedestrian data and illustrated the re-
sults based on pedestrian flow behaviour during the period of 15 minutes before and after
the arrival of trains. It is suggested that fluctuation in pedestrian flow depends on the
schedule of arrival and departure of train. An Emergency Evacuation Capacity (EEC)
model is formulated in [35] to evaluate the key factors that affect evacuation capacity of
Shuangjing subway station in Beijing. They have considered three aspects to analyze the
key factors that are 1) characteristic of evacuees, 2) evacuation facility, and 3) evacuation
organization and management.
Different modelling techniques described in [78, 77] are used for the assessment of sta-
tion designs and micro-simulation of pedestrian behaviour. They mentioned that railway
stations are one of the many high pedestrian volume environments which require proper
evaluation of spatial designs. In [120], a simulation model is developed using PTV Visssim
9 of Nagpur railway station, India. They have performed simulation to analyze pedestrian
flow density on ramp and passageway of the station, and to compare the simulated results
with the statistics of field observations. In [129], pedestrian traffic at the SBB railway sta-
tion of City of Bern is simulated to provide suggestions based on the re-planned procedures
for boarding the train. They further suggested that the use of agent-based simulations
is both conceptually and technically feasible to examine complex movement behaviour of
large number of pedestrians at railway station. An agent-based pedestrian simulation mo-
del is presented by WL Wang et. al. [164] which is based on CityFlow model to provide
suggestions in the evaluation of design proposals of metro train facilities.
In [167], a multi-agent simulation model is proposed to analyze the dynamicity of
crowd with respect to space density, time delay and flow path. They utilized their model

37
to identify congestion positions at a mass rapid transfer [MRT] station of Taiepi and sug-
gested that modification is required in the design of paths. In [95], a pedestrian simulator
MassMotion is utilized to analyze crowd congestion and mitigation measures at inter-
change subway station of Bloor-Yonge in Toronto. In [42], a spatial-spot type agent-based
simulation model is created to simulate large-scale crowd and examine congestion due to
multidirectional flow of pedestrians around the terminal station. They demonstrated a
process of density distribution at the Nagoya Station area and the tendency of changes
with respect to flow coefficients. The influence of urban rail transit station in the surroun-
ding areas is analyzed by Dongzhu Chu et. al. [38] for the optimization of urban space
and traffic organization. They utilized AnyLogic [39] to establish a methodology for the
analysis of pedestrian walking behaviour. In [182], a cellular automata-based alighting and
boarding micro-simulation model is presented. Selected case study is of the passengers
travelling in Beijing metro station. They have explored the effects of different group sizes
on the alighting and boarding performances in addition to the analysis of factors that may
affect the alighting and boarding time.
The aforementioned studies have given a deep insight on different aspects of pedestrian
flow behaviour in a railway/metro station. However, these studies have not emphasized
on the consequences of huge arrival and departure of passengers at the platforms for some
mass gathering event. For example, effect on boarding procedures with respect to time,
effect of architectural design on the movement time to reach different platforms, compari-
son of boarding strategies to evaluate minimum time consumption so that congestion can
be avoided, etc. Though, it is observed that Agent Based Modelling technique provides an
efficient way for analyzing realistic assessment of such areas with respect to crowd beha-
viour. Moreover, Agent Based Modelling and Simulation is one of the techniques used by
many countries [51, 149] for their real urban design projects such as city squares, metro
station, subway terminals, rail transit, malls, other public spaces, etc.
As we have already discussed, that the Allahabad Jn. railway station experiences
huge influx of pilgrims during the festival of Kumbh Mela. To avoid any kind of mishap
in this gathering the crowd management strategies planned by railway administration
was required to be tested before actual deployment. In their management scheme, most
important parameter was the evaluation of time with respect to numbers of pilgrims and
their movement behaviour, their walking speed, arrival and departure of scheduled trains,
distance between enclosures and designated platforms etc. They prepared well define

38
movement and boarding plans for the Mela pilgrims. However, they didn’t have fast and
effective ways to test and evaluate their plans. Therefore, we have utilized Agent Based
Modelling and Simulation technique to evaluate time consumption in the movement of
pilgrims from source to destination.

3.5 Efforts related to crowd behaviour in large

gatherings
There exist several academic research on the study of pedestrian’s behaviour at different
crowd gathering sites [47, 60, 74, 84, 100, 91, 137, 142]. Some research works [176, 101, 115]
are done to analyze human behaviour at sites like shopping mall, airport, football stadium,
etc. Several other research works [4, 66, 97, 106, 109, 114, 167, 179] are done to analyze
different aspects of religious crowd gathering scenarios in the festivals like Hajj, Love
Parade, Notting Hill Carnival etc.
In [176], a pedestrian model is created to demonstrate the behaviour of shoppers at
a shopping mall. The model integrates Extended Decision Field Theory (EDFT), Social
Force model (SFM) and dynamic planning algorithm to perform realistic simulation. They
simulated the model in AnyLogic software tool and suggested few findings related to the
profit gains of shopping mall. A reinforcement learning algorithm is designed in [101] to re-
present learning in human decision behaviour based on Belief-Desire-Intention framework.
They created an agent-based model to simulate human decision behaviour and tested the
impact of the proposed learning algorithm on emergency evacuation. They used AnyLogic
simulation tool to implement their model. An Agent Based model is created in [115] to
simulate crowd behaviour in the environmental scenario of an airport. They created the
model for automated analysis of different characteristic features such as congestion points,
bottlenecks, sudden changes in crowd density etc. that affect the behaviour of crowd.
Although, calibration of the different other aspects were not incorporated in the model
such as inter-agent relationships, Socio-psychological factors, scalability with respect to
crowd size etc.
W. W. Mulyanaet. al. in [114] have developed an edugame system to simulate the
realistic and complex behaviour of pilgrims for three main activities of Hajj that are thawaf,
sa’i, and jumrah. Based on subjective evaluation of their edugame system, it is suggested
that this system can be utilized to train the pilgrims before they perform the activities

39
in real. ActionScript is utilized by them to implement the intelligent agents of their
system. But, the limitation of this implementation lies on the number of intelligent agents
that are simulated. They have performed experiments on approximately 550 agents. In
[97], an agent based crowd model is implemented to simulate the panic behaviour of Hajj
pilgrims. They utilized a supervised learning model (SVM) to characterize the agents
into representative and non-representative pilgrims. Thereafter, they utilized fuzzy set
theory to generate rules and predict the disastrous situation. [97], further presented a
brief review of various simulation tool and suggested Repast Symphony, a better tool
for simulating Hajj scenarios. In [4], a new design of the Jamarat Bridge - A Symbolic
Stoning of the Devil site, is proposed for the safety of pilgrims in Hajj gathering. They
utilized fluid dynamics agent-based model to simulate the crowd scenario of Hajj. The
new constructed design is considered successful as no incidents were further happened till
date. In addition, [4] has suggested that studies related to management and planning in
huge gathering events is a significant task for the improvement of crowd safety.
In [66], the effort has been made to model human gatherings during Tawaf at Masjid
Al-haram in Maqqa. This model is created to analyze and optimize the queuing system at
Masjid Al-haram. It is suggested that switching lane during Tawaf is the most significant
factor in maintaining 1) crowd density below threshold and 2) the efficiency of the queuing
system. However, the model is at a very primitive stage and requires the incorporation of
complex behaviour of Hajjis with different numbers of parameters. For example, incorpo-
ration of sentimental factors such as fear, anxiety, confusion and directional focus, physical
parameters like energy level (weak or strong), age or confidence level etc. A crowd evacu-
ation model is developed in [179] which integrates the concept of game theory to reduce
herding effects and achieve symmetric utilization of resource with respect to exit usage
and evacuation time. They performed the agent-based simulation in NetLogo and sug-
gested that sharing of information among agents results in minimal panic. This happens
because an even distribution of agents is created across the exits and thus avoids effects
of herding during evacuation. An Agent-based Crowd Simulation & Analysis framework
is developed in [109] to perform comparative analysis of different emergency evacuation
strategies in the Hajj gathering scenario. They designed the spatially explicit environment
and complex crowd behaviour in the AnyLogic simulation tool.
The aforementioned efforts are done either for the Hajj religious gathering or for the
gatherings at places like shopping mall, airport etc. Apart from [109], in all other works

40
limited number of agents (approximately 100 to 600 agents) is considered for simulating
the experiments. Also, limited research works are done towards utilizing the modelling
and simulation technique in the context of crowd gathering scenarios of Indian festivals.
Moreover, the existing studies on religious crowd gatherings have not emphasized on the
need of testing and evaluation of crowd management and control strategies planned by
the authorities of the event. It could be a good practice if their strategies are analyzed
and tested with the help of modelling and simulation techniques. This may help to check
the effectiveness of the planned strategies and to decide whether these can be followed or
require some modification before actual deployment.
Based on the effectiveness of Agent Based Modelling technique, we have studied dif-
ferent aspects of crowd management strategies in the religious gathering of Kumbh Mela
festival. For example, congestion prone areas, density variations at the three main Ghats,
analysis of route diversion schemes with respect to time consumption, delay maintained,
etc. In this regard, we have developed an Agent Based Model which mimics the environ-
mental scenario of Kumbh Mela site and the movement of crowd of pilgrims. This model
can be utilized as a platform to test and evaluate different crowd movement schemes with
respect to time and density parameters.

41