Saturday, August 12 By Brian Nadeau (check @Brian_J_Nadeau for OFF turf updates)
Royal Palm Meet Statistics (through 8/6):
GP: 538-142-86-89 ($1.67/$4.92) Best Bet: 48-20-8-6 ($2.03/$5.56) Longshot: 46-7-3-6 ($2.32/$5.37)
Race 1: Tab the tote on the 2yos, as this
look like a modest group, and the call goes
to 6 KING SKULL, who has a slew of works
and gets Reyes for Barboza, who popped
with a firster last week. The experience 4
SOUND OF THE BEAST got on debut will
help, as he had to run hard, though he’ll
have to do so again with his pace rival from
last time (Unequivocally) to his direct
outside. The rail says 1 MAXIMATCH might
be a play against, as that’s a tough draw for
a firster, but he cost 100k a few months ago
and has some pedigree power too.
SELECTIONS: 6-4-1-5
Race 2: The flow and post position points to
4 YOU TALKIN TO ME, as he has a stalking
gear and should trip out off the speed. No
doubt 3 JOURNEYMAN will be tough, and
he beat the pick last time, but being inside
him says a repeat might be tougher than
the betting board will indicate. The gang’s
all here, as 4 VLADISLAV was 3rd to the top-
2 last time, and he’s not impossible to turn
the tables, at what should be fair odds too.
SELECTIONS: 4-3-5-2
Race 3: Getting back to Tapeta and two
turns might wake up 1 SUN VIKING, as he
ran well over the surface and can save all
the ground as well. Not sure what to make
of 4 MANNIX, as he plummets to 8k and
seems to be given away after a decent
return, and they’ll hammer him at the
windows too. Going OTC from D’Angelo
says 6 THE SLEEPYCHIPMONK might
regress, though Yanez is crafty, and there’s
solid form here to work with too.
SELECTIONS: 1-4-6-5
Race 4: Stabbing with 3 HUGE G, who was
bet on debut (8-1) and had a brutal trip, but
may be able to make amends with a fair go
of it. Toss the last of 5 LOVELY DRAMA, as
she wasn’t ready for the start, which means
she’s a big threat off the run two-back. The
Tapeta 2nd when sent routing last time says
2 R AWESOME SAUCE is a player, though
she’ll also need to run faster to win this.
SELECTIONS: 3-5-2-9
Race 5: The comeback 2nd from 6 BORIS
says it’s all systems go today, and this
outside attack post is perfect for his
pressing style. You can’t knock 2 REBELDE,
as he just won his fifth straight, though this
is the toughest group he’s faced yet. If they
go fast early 3 DIAMOND COOL is the one
to fear late, and he’ll like getting back with
state breds today as well.
SELECTIONS: 1-7-6-5
Race 6: It’s Best Bet time with 5 ONE
SMOKIN’ RITA, as she ran well facing
winners, can build on it, and meets a meek
crew. The wildcard is 6 LILY OF WICKLOW,
as she’s never run on Tapeta but was a
good 2nd on the turf at Tampa, now moves
to Spatz, and adds Lasix too. The rail and an
October layoff won’t help 1 TWINNING N
WINNING, though she adds Lasix and was a
sharp 2nd in her lone Tapeta start.
SELECTIONS: 5-6-1
Race 7: Let’s go Longshot looking with 10
TEJOTA, as he didn’t have a fair go of it last
but was still a good 3rd against winner and
has plenty of upside. Getting back to Tapeta
will help 1 NO DELIBERATION, as the Mth
turf experiments didn’t work out, though
he'll have to work out a trip from the inside.
Tread lightly with 9 LIEUTENANT STAN, as
he was an OK 6th for 35k facing winners and
now drops to 12.5k, which is a worry.
SELECTIONS: 5-2-3-1
Race 8: There are several factors that point
to 3 MIDNIGHT BELLA, as she was just a
strong 4th in a good stakes and should trip
out off a ton of speed. The latter can be said
for 2 COCO as well, though she’ll need to
improve after losing a heart-breaker last
time. She’s slow on figures but 4 SMART
SPENDING is another who will like the race
flow, and may spice things up underneath.
SELECTIONS: 3-2-4-8
Race 9: The featured Proud Run brings a
talented group of 2yos, possibly none more
so than 5 DIVIETO, who won on debut for
Sano, who never cranks them, and has a
stalking gear in a race loaded with speed.
Drawing outside some of the other heat will
help 6 BIG EFFECT, and he aired in his
second start, which gives him an experience
edge on the pick and a few others. Being a
stakes winner gives 4 REAPER some street
cred against this unproven group, though
he did take advantage of an all-time rail bias
at Prairie Meadows to get it.
SELECTIONS: 5-6-4-1
Race 10: Let’s hope for a fast track for 4
SOPHIA’S STORM, as she caught off tracks
in her last two but won over dry land three-
back. Don’t sleep on 2 GITANA in her dirt
return, as she’s got races that stack up with
these and will be closing late. The speed of
7 IDEAL BREEZE gives her a chance, and she
did well to draw outside some of the other
gas, though a win may be a stretch.
SELECTIONS: 4-2-7-8
Best Bet: R6: #5 One Smokin’ Rita (3-1)
* Good 4th from wide draw in last
* Versatile to run on or just off pace
* Lightly raced with plenty of upside
Longshot: R7: #10 Tejota (8-1)
* Troubled 3rd in first against winners
* More upside than anyone entered
* Tactical speed to be close throughout