TOPIC 2: PROBABILITY

Probability
Probability means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics that deals with the occurrence of a
random event. The value is expressed from zero to one. Probability has been introduced in Math to
predict how likely events are to happen.

Formula for Probability


    
 

The probability of an event to happen
 =
  
    
 


Example 1
There is a container full of colored bottles, red, blue, green and orange. Some of the bottles are picked
out and displaced. Ali did this 100 times and got the following results:

No. of blue bottles picked out: 30

No. of red bottles: 20
No. of green bottles: 45
No. of orange bottles: 5

The probability that Ali will pick a:

 blue bottle,
 =

 red bottle,
 =

 green bottle,
 ! =

 orange bottle,
" #!$ =

Example 2

In a travel survey, 92 people were asked how they got to work. Result shows that:
 35 used a car
 42 took public transport
 8 rode a bicycle
 7 walked

The probability that an individual goes to work by:

 car,
%#  =

 public transport,
&'(% ) #!*&+ ) =

 bicycle,
'(%,% =

 walking,
-#.(!$ =

1
Sample Space
Sample space is set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

Events
An event is a subset of a sample space

0
Complement event, /

All outcomes in the sample space are not in the

A B
event A

0  = 2 3 1/
1/

Sample Space and Events

Intersection event Union event

4 ∩ 
4 ∪  =
4 7
 3
4 ∩ 

Mutually exclusive (No intersection)

4 ∩  = 0
4 ∩  exist

4 ∪  =
4 7

4 ∪  =
4 7
 3
4 ∩ 

2
Probability Tree

The tree diagram helps to organize and visualize the different possible outcomes. Branches and ends
of the tree are two main positions. Probability of each branch is written on the branch, whereas the
ends are containing the final outcome. You can see below a tree diagram for the coin:

Tree diagrams are used to figure out when to multiply and when to add.

Example 1

In a class, there are 2 students wearing blue shirt, 5 students wear green shirt and 3 students wear
red shirt. Two students are selected at random with replacement.
a) What is the sample space of the above events?
b) Find the probability that both students wearing same colors.
c) What is the probability of chosen second student wearing blue shirt?

Steps of Drawing Tree Diagram

1. Total respondent =
2. How many branches needed =
3. How many times to expand =
4. Put probability → identify whether independent or dependent event =

Solution
Attend Lecture

3
Example 2

Jack has a basket that contains nine good apples and six bad apples. He randomly picks three apples
from the basket and gives them to his friends.
a) What is the sample space of the above events?
b) Find the probability that the third apple is bad.
c) What is the probability of getting at least two good apples?

Steps
1. Check total = 15 apples
2. Check how many branches needed = 2 types → G & B
3. Check how many times to expand = pick 3 apples
4. Check independent or dependent event = give to friend → dependent event

Solution
Attend Lecture

4
Conditional Probability

Probability of “A happen after B” read as Probability of “A given that B”

4 ∩ 

4| =



Example 1

In a class, 40% of the student study math and science. If 60% of the student study math, what is the
probability of a student studying science given that the student is already studying math?

Solution

; ∩ < = 0.4

; = 0.6

< ∩ ; 0.4

<|; = = = 0.67

; 0.6

Example 2

Suppose the following two probabilities are known:

P (cloudy) = 0.25
P (rainy and cloudy) = 0.15
Calculate the probability that it will rain on a particular day given that it is cloudy out.

Solution

A = 0.25

 ∩ A = 0.15

 ∩ A 0.15

|A = = = 0.6

A 0.25

5
Example 3

The contingency table below shows 900 adults in a small town who have completed a college degree
according to their gender and employment status:

Status Employed Unemployed

Gender
Male 460 40
Female 140 260

What is the probability of a randomly chosen individual is;

a) an employed adult?
b) a male?
c) an employed adult and the adult is a female?
d) an unemployed adult given that the adult is a male?
e) a female given that the adult is unemployed?

Solution
Attend Lecture

6
Example 4

Some trees in the forest were showing signs of disease. A random sample of 200 trees of various
sizes was examined yielding the following results:

Type Disease-free Doubtful Diseased

Large 35 18 15
Medium 46 32 14
Small 24 8 8

What is the probability that;

a) one tree selected at random is a small type?
b) one doubtful tree is selected?
c) one tree selected at random is a medium type given that the tree is having a disease?
d) one tree selected at random is a large type given that the tree is disease-free?
e) one disease tree selected at random and it is a large type?

Solution
Attend Lecture

7
Bayes’ Theorem

Bayes’ theorem used to find the conditional probability of an event
4| when the "reverse"
conditional probability
|4 is the probability that is known.

Example 1

There are two producing machines in a factory. Machine A produce 60% while machine B produce
40% of the factory’s product. 3% of the product that produced by machine A is defective and 2% by
machine B. One of the product was randomly selected, find the probability that;
a) the product is defective.
b) the defective product was produced by machine B.

Steps
1. Check how many phase =
2. Check how many branches needed for each phase =
3. Put probability value on the branches

Solution
Attend Lecture

8
Example 2

A firm rents car from Agency A 26% of the time, Agency B 38% of the time, and Agency C the
remainder of the time. It is known that 10% of cars from Agency A, 20% of the cars from Agency B
and 5% of cars from Agency C have bad tires. If a car is randomly selected from a central pool of cars
from these agencies,
a) draw a decision tree to illustrate the situation
b) find the probability that the car has bad tires.
c) find the probability that the car that had bad tires is from Agency A.

Steps
1. Check how many phase =
2. Check how many branches needed for each phase =
3. Put probability value on the branches

Solution
Attend Lecture

9
Example 3

The probability that a question will be set by Adam is 1⁄3, set by Isa is 1/2 and Noah is 1⁄6. If the
question is set by Adam, the probability that would be an easy question is 1⁄2. Meanwhile, if the
question is set by Isa and Noah the probabilities of an easy question are 1⁄4 and 1⁄3 respectively. A
set of question paper was randomly chosen and it was an easy question, find the probability that the
question was set by Isa.

Solution
Attend Lecture

10