PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL (mm)

AÑO ESTACION CHULUCANAS ES

1999 281.1
2000 99.0
1200
2001 438.6
2002 341.7
2003 63.5 1000
2004 56.5
2005 94.9
2006 151.0 800
2007 40.3
2008 546.5
600
2009 165.8
2010 216.2
2011 85.3 400
2012 447.6
2013 127.8
2014 25.5 200
2015 300.7
2016 167.7
0
2017 1142.1
2018 74.3 9 9 02 0 5 08 1 1 14 17
2019 368.0 1 9 20 20 20 2 0 20 20
 ESTACION CHULUCANAS

0 5 08 11 14 17
2 0 20 2 0 2 0 20

Herramientas / Análisis de Datos / Estadística Desciptiva

PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO
Media 666.2
Mediana 364.5
Moda 390
Desviación estándar 883.4
Varianza 780454
Curtosis 4.60
Coeficiente de asimetría 2.06
Rango 4424
Mínimo 0
Máximo 4424
Suma 49299.5
Cuenta 74
PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL (mm)
AÑO ESTACION CHULUCANAS DATOS ORDENADOS F(x)
1999 281.1 1142.1 0.9997744746894
2000 99.0 546.5 0.8785961074249
2001 438.6 447.6 0.7821263769992
2002 341.7 438.6 0.7715712765523
2003 63.5 368.0 0.6796164167016
2004 56.5 341.7 0.6418048152973
2005 94.9 300.7 0.5801151039321
2006 151.0 281.1 0.5498073617376
2007 40.3 216.2 0.4483490280484
2008 546.5 167.7 0.3743317183599
2009 165.8 165.8 0.3715058097253
2010 216.2 151.0 0.3497406713165
2011 85.3 127.8 0.3166172314316
2012 447.6 99.0 0.27748080514
2013 127.8 94.9 0.272107459872
2014 25.5 85.3 0.2597318281718
2015 300.7 74.3 0.2459171983171
2016 167.7 63.5 0.2327470452292
2017 1142.1 56.5 0.2244246627786
2018 74.3 40.3 0.205826377902
2019 368.0 25.5 0.1896622786326
 f(x) MEDIA 249.24
3.33118E-06 DESV.EST. 254.50
0.0007924712
0.0011569438
0.0011885315 F(x)
0.0014058467
0.0014674425 1
0.0015358284 0.9
0.001555311
0.8
0.0015543874
0.0014891137 0.7
0.0014855146 0.6
0.0014549971
0.5
0.0013988631
0.0013168707 0.4
0.0013042369 0.3
0.0012738335 0.2
0.0012376997
0.1
0.0012010353
0.0011767212 0
0.0011190709 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
0.0010650961
f(x)

0.0018

0.0016

0.0014

0.0012

0.001

0.0008

0.0006

0.0004

0.0002

0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION CHULUCANAS DATOS ORDENADOS y = ln (x) F(x)
1999 281.1 1142.1 7.040623952057 0.9788120635946
2000 99.0 546.5 6.303534307617 0.8958956075268
2001 438.6 447.6 6.103899976438 0.8530501606145
2002 341.7 438.6 6.083587835984 0.8481074338769
2003 63.5 368.0 5.908082938169 0.8008604660563
2004 56.5 341.7 5.833933159121 0.7784910739108
2005 94.9 300.7 5.706113089994 0.7367487130418
2006 151.0 281.1 5.638710477912 0.7132221511145
2007 40.3 216.2 5.376203905205 0.6133767799209
2008 546.5 167.7 5.122176668829 0.5089006223276
2009 165.8 165.8 5.110782242701 0.5041445655968
2010 216.2 151.0 5.017279836815 0.4651555179333
2011 85.3 127.8 4.850466541943 0.3966568982307
2012 447.6 99.0 4.595119850135 0.2983301513993
2013 127.8 94.9 4.552823705616 0.283163697613
2014 25.5 85.3 4.446174454498 0.2466503912378
2015 300.7 74.3 4.308110951724 0.2033993220621
2016 167.7 63.5 4.151039905899 0.1601351889987
2017 1142.1 56.5 4.034240638152 0.1321846902651
2018 74.3 40.3 3.696351468953 0.0708219853835
2019 368.0 25.5 3.238678452164 0.0256707871775
 f(x) MEDIA 249.24 MEDIA 5.1009
0.0532035699 DESV.EST. 254.50 DESV.EST. 0.9556
0.1890990001
0.2406524976
0.2460260514 C.ASIMETRIA -0.00459288
0.2921979572
0.3110528535 Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
0.3415933216
0.3563113221 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
0.4004863711
0.4173564112 --> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01
0.417437785 --> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99
0.4158669691
0.4033742872 z = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
0.3629112333
0.3541626654 z = 2.32634787
0.3301444051
0.2959293616 y=m+z S
0.2547463834
0.2239278552 y = 5,435 + 2,326 * 1,805
0.1417671012
0.0625297097 y= 7.3240

y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x = 1516.2689
 F(x)

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

f(x)

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

f(x)

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3
 f(x)

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
3 4 5 6 7 8
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION CHULUCANAS DATOS ORDENADOS y = ln (x-a) F(x)
1999 281.1 1142.1 7.038911219379 0.9779272834186
2000 99.0 546.5 6.299951616009 0.8948061458058
2001 438.6 447.6 6.09952393249 0.8522908938976
2002 341.7 438.6 6.079121795522 0.8473940353032
2003 63.5 368.0 5.902757812541 0.8006333232777
2004 56.5 341.7 5.828196990991 0.7785130066883
2005 94.9 300.7 5.699592248578 0.7372461039535
2006 151.0 281.1 5.631733374087 0.7139863279072
2007 40.3 216.2 5.367122844082 0.6151813125773
2008 546.5 167.7 5.110453854656 0.5114880118957
2009 165.8 165.8 5.098924290255 0.5067573910237
2010 216.2 151.0 5.004252045786 0.4679375658225
2011 85.3 127.8 4.835055458353 0.3995481295444
2012 447.6 99.0 4.575180581635 0.3008824925111
2013 127.8 94.9 4.53201396909 0.2856044939156
2014 25.5 85.3 4.422995364839 0.2487510928409
2015 300.7 74.3 4.281454113269 0.2049595036038
2016 167.7 63.5 4.119777749316 0.1609987814413
2017 1142.1 56.5 3.9990363561 0.1325164219444
2018 74.3 40.3 3.646638802759 0.0698238010375
2019 368.0 25.5 3.158937361132 0.0239176241179

a 1.9544

Mediana 165.8
 f(x) MEDIA 249.24 MEDIA 5.0825
0.0541451961 DESV.EST. 254.50 DESV.EST. 0.9721
0.1873140006 a 1.9544
0.2374086414
0.2426265338 C.ASIMETRIA -0.0378142319
0.2874627032
0.3057847149
0.3355024716 Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
0.3498531473
0.3931865597 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
0.410243065
0.4103543619 --> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01
0.409087071 --> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99
0.3973331617
0.3581649028 z = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
0.3496150322
0.3260446149 z = 2.32634787
0.2922608561
0.2513274864 y=m+z S
0.2205284031
0.1378609486 y = 5,731 + 2,326 * 1,367
0.057932712
y= 7.3438

y= ln (x - a)

x-a= e (y)

x - a = 1546.55573

x = 7413,477 - 25,068

x = 1548.51017
 LN3; C.A.=0
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
2 4 6 8

LN2; C.A.=-0,8
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
3 4 5 6 7 8
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
Var. Reducida
AÑO ESTACION CHULUCANAS DATOS ORDENADOS y = (x - u)/a
1999 281.1 1142.1 4.28
2000 99.0 546.5 1.77
2001 438.6 447.6 1.36
2002 341.7 438.6 1.32
2003 63.5 368.0 1.02
2004 56.5 341.7 0.91
2005 94.9 300.7 0.74
2006 151.0 281.1 0.66
2007 40.3 216.2 0.39
2008 546.5 167.7 0.18
2009 165.8 165.8 0.17
2010 216.2 151.0 0.11
2011 85.3 127.8 0.01
2012 447.6 99.0 (0.11)
2013 127.8 94.9 (0.12)
2014 25.5 85.3 (0.16)
2015 300.7 74.3 (0.21)
2016 167.7 63.5 (0.26)
2017 1142.1 56.5 (0.28)
2018 74.3 40.3 (0.35)
2019 368.0 25.5 (0.42)

x medio 249.24 0.5252

desv. Est x (Sx) 254.50 1.0696

n = número de datos 21
yn medio = 0.5252
Sn = 1.0696

parámetros, según n
a = Sx / Sn = 237.94
u = x-yn*a= 124.28
249.24 0.5252
254.50 1.0696

21
0.5252
1.0696

237.94
124.28
 e  y 1 x−u
F (x  X )  1 e  y=
Tr a
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.01

e(-e(-y))= 0.99

-e(-y)= -0.0100503

e(-y)= 0.0100503

-y = -4.6001492

y = 4.6001492

y= x-u
a
x= u + a.y

x= 1218.84
VALORES GUMBEL

Media reducida Yn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.5070 0.5100 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.5220
20 0.5230 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.5320 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.5380 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.5410 0.5418 0.5424 0.5430
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.5530 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.5540 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.5550 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.5570 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.5580 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.5600

Desviación tipica reducida Sn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.2260 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.3880
40 1.1413 1.1430 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.1590
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.1930
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.2060
100 1.2065
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GAMMA DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION CHULUCANAS DATOS ORDENADOS f(x) F(x)
1999 281.1 1142.1 4.359E-05 9.888E-01
2000 99.0 546.5 4.445E-04 8.861E-01
2001 438.6 447.6 6.557E-04 8.324E-01
2002 341.7 438.6 6.794E-04 8.264E-01
2003 63.5 368.0 8.978E-04 7.711E-01
2004 56.5 341.7 9.965E-04 7.462E-01
2005 94.9 300.7 1.173E-03 7.018E-01
2006 151.0 281.1 1.268E-03 6.779E-01
2007 40.3 216.2 1.646E-03 5.839E-01
2008 546.5 167.7 2.004E-03 4.957E-01
2009 165.8 165.8 2.020E-03 4.919E-01
2010 216.2 151.0 2.146E-03 4.611E-01
2011 85.3 127.8 2.363E-03 4.088E-01
2012 447.6 99.0 2.667E-03 3.365E-01
2013 127.8 94.9 2.714E-03 3.254E-01
2014 25.5 85.3 2.829E-03 2.988E-01
2015 300.7 74.3 2.968E-03 2.670E-01
2016 167.7 63.5 3.114E-03 2.341E-01
2017 1142.1 56.5 3.214E-03 2.120E-01
2018 74.3 40.3 3.468E-03 1.579E-01
2019 368.0 25.5 3.741E-03 1.046E-01
x (media) 249.2
s2 (varianza) 64771.0
a 0.959
b 259.87

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

--> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01

--> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99

x = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 1172.2657
 f(x)

4.0E-03

3.5E-03

3.0E-03

2.5E-03

2.0E-03

1.5E-03

1.0E-03

5.0E-04

0.0E+00
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

F(x)

1.2E+00

1.0E+00

8.0E-01

6.0E-01

4.0E-01

2.0E-01

0.0E+00
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
1000 1200

1000 1200
 Valores de "K", para la distribución Pearson tipo III

Coeficiente Nivel de probabilidad, porcentaje

99 80 50 20 10 4 2 1
de asimetría Periodo de retorno en años -8 -6
g 1.0101 1.25 2 5 10 25 50 100
f(x) = − 0.01
3 -0.667 -0.636 -0.396 0.42 1.18 2.278 3.152 4.051
R² = 0.9997
2.8 -0.714 -0.666 -0.384 0.46 1.21 2.275 3.114 3.973
2.6 -0.769 -0.696 -0.368 0.499 1.238 2.267 3.071 3.889
2.4 -0.832 -0.725 -0.351 0.537 1.262 2.256 3.023 3.8 f(x) = − 0.01
2.2 -0.905 -0.752 -0.33 0.574 1.284 2.24 2.97 3.705 R² = 0.9996
2 -0.99 -0.777 -0.307 0.609 1.302 2.219 2.912 3.605
1.8 -1.087 -0.7999 -0.282 0.643 1.318 2.193 2.848 3.499 f(x) = − 0.0089
1.6 -1.197 -0.8177 -0.254 0.675 1.329 2.163 2.78 3.388 R² = 0.999397
1.4 -1.318 -0.8332 -0.225 0.705 1.337 2.128 2.706 3.271
1.2 -1.449 -0.844 -0.195 0.732 1.34 2.087 2.626 3.149 f(x) = − 0.0026
1 -1.558 -0.852 -0.164 0.758 1.34 2.043 2.542 3.022 R² = 0.998537
0.8 -1.733 -0.856 -0.132 0.78 1.336 1.993 2.453 2.891 f(x) = 0.001376
0.6 -1.88 -0.857 -0.099 0.8 1.328 1.939 2.359 2.755 R² = 0.9992547
0.4 -2.029 -0.855 -0.066 0.816 1.317 1.88 2.261 2.615 f(x) = 0.00407783
R² = 0.999982929
0.2 -2.178 -0.85 -0.033 0.83 1.301 1.818 2.159 2.472
0 -2.326 -0.842 0 0.842 1.282 1.751 2.054 2.326
-0.2 -2.472 -0.83 0.033 0.85 1.258 1.68 1.945 2.178 f(x) = 0.001399
R²
f(x)= =0.9992713
− 0.0192
-0.4 -2.615 -0.816 0.066 0.855 1.232 1.606 1.834 2.029
R² = 0.999746
-0.6 -2.755 -0.8 0.099 0.857 1.2 1.528 1.72 1.88
-0.8 -2.891 -0.78 0.132 0.856 1.166 1.448 1.606 1.733
-1 -3.022 -0.758 0.164 0.852 1.128 1.366 1.492 1.588
-1.2 -3.149 -0.732 0.195 0.844 1.086 1.282 1.379 1.449
-1.4 -3.271 -0.705 0.225 0.832 1.041 1.198 1.27 1.318
-1.6 -3.388 -0.675 0.254 0.817 0.994 1.116 1.166 1.197
-1.8 -3.499 -0.643 0.282 0.799 0.945 1.035 1.069 1.087
-2 -3.605 -0.609 0.307 0.777 0.895 0.958 0.98 0.99
-2.2 -3.705 -0.574 0.33 0.752 0.844 0.888 0.9 0.905
-2.4 -3.8 -0.537 0.351 0.725 0.795 0.823 0.83 0.832
-2.6 -3.889 -0.499 0.368 0.696 0.747 0.764 0.768 0.769
-2.8 -3.973 -0.46 0.384 0.666 0.702 0.712 0.714 0.714 1.0101
2
-3 -4.051 -0.42 0.396 0.636 0.66 0.666 0.666 0.667
 K versus g para diferentes Tr
K(Tr) = f (g)

Coeficiente de asimetría, g

-6 -4 -2 0 2
4
f(x) = − 0.0190533735741238 x³ + 0.0033863383557487 x² + 0.73159500479836 x + 2.30358307210031
R² = 0.999777398530349
Tr = 100

3
f(x) = − 0.0139955001744857 x³ − 0.0169498622206491 x² + 0.538798487971384 x + 2.0338847203964
R² = 0.99964710063594

f(x) = − 0.00895764059491728 x³ − 0.0322070292749519 x² + 0.349711848701964 x + 1.73532055819598

2
R² = 0.999397936569578

coeficiente K
f(x) = − 0.00260676908289863 x³ − 0.0412508532207504 x² + 0.111322764797091 x + 1.27384143998382
R² = 0.998537586979501 1
f(x) = 0.00137667818669587 x³ − 0.0354644364950955 x² − 0.0476827658331005 x + 0.839099100010113
R² = 0.999254748870467
f(x) = 0.00407783132972068 x³ − 8.6057325391559E-18 x² − 0.169169395485973 x + 1.05222764652546E-17
R² = 0.999982929916464 0

f(x) = 0.00139929287393995 x³ + 0.0354719416776216 x² − 0.0478574019657413 x − 0.839213439174841

R²
f(x)= =0.999271357226285
− 0.0192834085803398 x³ − 0.00364704469612697 x² + 0.733220585508953 x − 2.30178106987562
R² = 0.999746677611077 -1

-2
Tr = 1.01

-3

-4
1.0101 Polynomial (1.0101) 1.25 Polynomial (1.25)
2 Polynomial (2) 5 Polynomial (5)
 CUADRO Nº 25: PRUEBA DE AJUSTE SMIRNOV-KOLMOGOROV, PRECIPITACION TOTAL MENSUAL; AREAS DE DRENAJE
Probabilidad de excedencia F(x) Diferencia Delta D
DATOS Empírica Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma
1 1142.1 0.045 0.000 0.021 0.022 0.014 0.011 0.04523 0.02427 0.02338 0.03167 0.03421
2 546.5 0.091 0.121 0.104 0.105 0.156 0.114 0.03049 0.01320 0.01428 0.06506 0.02298
3 447.6 0.136 0.218 0.147 0.148 0.227 0.168 0.08151 0.01059 0.01135 0.09024 0.03125
4 438.6 0.182 0.228 0.152 0.153 0.234 0.174 0.04661 0.02993 0.02921 0.05240 0.00820
5 368.0 0.227 0.320 0.199 0.199 0.302 0.229 0.09311 0.02813 0.02791 0.07439 0.00166
6 341.7 0.273 0.358 0.222 0.221 0.330 0.254 0.08547 0.05122 0.05124 0.05763 0.01891
7 300.7 0.318 0.420 0.263 0.263 0.379 0.298 0.10170 0.05493 0.05543 0.06081 0.01999
8 281.1 0.364 0.450 0.287 0.286 0.404 0.322 0.08656 0.07686 0.07762 0.04025 0.04154
9 216.2 0.409 0.552 0.387 0.385 0.493 0.416 0.14256 0.02247 0.02427 0.08406 0.00701
10 167.7 0.455 0.626 0.491 0.489 0.565 0.504 0.17112 0.03655 0.03397 0.11079 0.04976
11 165.8 0.500 0.628 0.496 0.493 0.568 0.508 0.12849 0.00414 0.00676 0.06823 0.00813
12 151.0 0.545 0.650 0.535 0.532 0.591 0.539 0.10480 0.01061 0.01339 0.04543 0.00651
13 127.8 0.591 0.683 0.603 0.600 0.627 0.591 0.09247 0.01243 0.00954 0.03576 0.00029
14 99.0 0.636 0.723 0.702 0.699 0.671 0.664 0.08616 0.06531 0.06275 0.03476 0.02716
15 94.9 0.682 0.728 0.717 0.714 0.677 0.675 0.04607 0.03502 0.03258 0.00440 0.00726
16 85.3 0.727 0.740 0.753 0.751 0.692 0.701 0.01300 0.02608 0.02398 0.03517 0.02611
17 74.3 0.773 0.754 0.797 0.795 0.709 0.733 0.01864 0.02387 0.02231 0.06393 0.03969
18 63.5 0.818 0.767 0.840 0.839 0.725 0.766 0.05093 0.02168 0.02082 0.09317 0.05231
19 56.5 0.864 0.776 0.868 0.867 0.735 0.788 0.08806 0.00418 0.00385 0.12823 0.07562
20 40.3 0.909 0.794 0.929 0.930 0.759 0.842 0.11492 0.02009 0.02109 0.15003 0.06700
21 25.5 0.955 0.810 0.974 0.976 0.780 0.895 0.14421 0.01978 0.02154 0.17445 0.05916
0.17112 0.07686 0.07762 0.17445 0.07562
Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada
∆= 0.2870
Elaboración Propia
INTERPOLACION

DATOS:
20 0.294
23 X
25 0.27

X= 0.280 Valor Interpolado