2022 ICT Mentorship

Episode 2: Elements to a trade setup

Factors that will impact the weekly candle:

-seasonal tendencies
-interest rates
-earnings seasons and the release of quarterly ER
-Price action on a weekly and daily chart

When it comes to PA on the weekly chart ask yourself:

What is market most likely to draw towards? This sets initial bias for week

Majority of analysis should be linked to the daily chart. Figure out where you are in the grand
scheme of things on that weekly range expanding higher or lower

When it comes to PA of the Daily chart ask yourself:

Where are the liquidity pools price can seek? (following assumption of the weekly chart)
● The Draw on Liquidity for the most part is found on the Daily Chart.
● The Daily Chart should have the majority of your time and analysis.
● The Daily Chart will give you feedback every 24 HOURS on that Weekly Candle.
WE USE THAT FEEDBACK TO SUPPORT OUR ASSUMPTIONS OF THE WEEKLY CANDLE
EXPANDING HIGHER OR LOWER

Above old highs: Buy stops

Below old lows: Sell stops

Where there are two fair value gaps he’ll let it tradedown to that lower one

If you are bearish you are looking for buy stops to be ran, then a break in market structure
lower. A short term low being broken. Then it needs to have a fair value gap.

Imbalance: A candle thats only going higher/ and nothing else is there to offset the efficiency of
price deliver on the opposite end
● One single candle passing up, and the previous candle high and the next candles low.
That area is an imbalance.

Any time a significant price move lower is expected always anticipate some measure of a
stophunt on buy stops or short term high being taken out. Reverse is also true: When looking for
higher prices generally you will see a short term low taken out and sell stops taken before you
see a very pronounced rally higher.
Here is the 15 min

Here is the 2 min. After the break out, let it establish a short term low. Once its broken, look for
the imbalance and once the market comes back up to it you short. 1,2,3 min timeframes work
best with finding imbalances. The Fair Value Gap is the highlighted area. You mark the 1st
candles lows and the 3rd candles high
 Use fib to find the 50% level. Anything above the 50% level is referred from an algorithmic stance
as a premium market (means that its expensive). Anything in the lower 50% is a discount. If BEARISH:
after you get your entry in the FVG, you should be thinking "We are in a premium, so algos want to go to a
discount. You can have all the buyers in the world come in, but if the algo is in a sell program and its going
lower it does not matter. Those buyers who come in with a huge influx of buyers get crushed and
squeezed.
Look for run on liquidity (Buy stops or sell stops)
If bearish you're looking for buy stops to be ran, then a break in market structure lower. A short
term low being broken. Then look for FVG.

Look for breaks in market structure after a pool of liquidity (buy or sell stops), that have been
taken in an opposing direction of your weekly expected range. In other words are you expecting
higher or lower prices on weekly range? If you are looking for lower prices your focus is on a
runup of an old high. Once that forms then you are looking for a break in market structure on a
lower timeframe. Once that occurs and you get an imbalance thats your trigger. Then split the
range that was created and find where the 50% is. If short, find an old low or imbalance to aim
for as your target. Try to get the closest target. Dont get fancy and go for the low hanging fruit.
Episode 3: Internal Range Liquidity and Market Structure Shifts

Market structure break means more in context versus an intraday shift in market structure,
intraday shift means that there's likely a downside or upside draw intraday by saying the term
shift.
In the below example: the buyside/sellside liquidity is where there will be a likelihood of a market
structure shift.

When the high is taken out on that candle, its significant ONLY if the rundown has traded into
sell stops. Below and old low of some kind. It could be a double bottom, single low, or just be
trading under some retail idea that is viewed as support. Reverse is true for buy side liquidity.
When that run above relatively equal highs happens, you are anticipating a market structure
shift, NOT FORCING IT OR GET AHEAD OF IT!

Market dives into liquidity. At this point you may or may not know whether its a buy. YOU DONT
NEED TO. You anticipate a shift in market structure.You see that shift on the candle where the
light bulb is. Thats when you are thinking “I now have a condition in the market place where I
might see a opportunity intraday”. Candle does NOT need to close over short term high. Once
that candle closes, monitor the second candle and see if it creates a fair value gap. Entry is on
the next candle that dips into the gap. Price then gravitates towards previous buy stops. Use
those as targets.
Heres the 1min. When price trades back into here (highlighted zone) this is what actually
occurs: High frequency algos are hammering, just throwing orders in. That IS NOT causing the
market to go higher. Its just volume thats coming in. The algos that deliver/offer price in the
marketplace, thats whats beginning to spool and go higher. Regardless of where you wanna
trade at, your limit orders, they may not get filled. When u buy with a market order there will be
slippage. When price starts to rally, all it is is a default to the algo constantly offering price at a
higher price

See those two candles there in the highlighted zone. That is one consecutive order
block.Extend it out in time. Its a good bearish order block because it has that gap and it has
taken liquidity.
Order Block: Change in the state of delivery.
In this example the change in the state of delivery is now offering sellside, which means it will
match up sell stops and keep going below old lows into an imbalance until we get down to a
discount.
Whenever there are 2 fair value gaps like this, the idea is to let it trade down to the lower one
and sacrifice the better entry. If it trades back to the second green box enter in there and expect
that the lower one wont be re traded to

Example of annotated chart:

In the open space write how long did it take from the market structure shift occurring to the fair
value gap being filled. Also how long did it take from entry to target. Also how much drawdown
did you take.
Episode 5: Intraday Order Flow and Understanding The Daily Range

Dont trade from 12pm-1pm

Prior to 8:30 am, on the 15 min chart look for the most significant/obvious swing high/swing low

Then drop down into the first lower timeframe for entry, which is the 5min chart. Watch for the 3
little indians pattern as price approaches the swing high. It doesn't have to see that 3rd high
takeout the old high. Liquidity is already being built in here because buy stops keep getting hit.
On the other hand if we don't see the higher highs forming and price is steady rising up, we can
anticipate the high to be taken out.
Displacement: Think of an elephant falling into a children's pool. There will be a HUGE splash.
In the above chart its obvious here the displacement here is. You want to look for a big
obvious/meaty candle like that. Not lethargic/slow ones. One that displacement occurs look for
the FVG.

After 1:30pm, mark the first swing low and swing high of any importance. Algos turn on at that
time.
Look for a swing high/low and look for a stop hunt. Same thing you do in the morning!

When the swing low gets violated (look at pointer), that stop hunt is all thats necessary that will
start a buy program.
Buy program: Algos go into the process of spooling which means it just keeps offering higher
prices. VOLUME DOES NOT MATTER. THIS IS BEING MANIPULATED. So now you can get
your long entries and then hold for the close.

Buy the sell stops that are resting below the sell side liquidity level and expect the swing high to
be taken out (referring to the pre lunch range)
You then have consolidation through lunch. After 1:30 wait for the swing low to be violated then
rally.

What if you don't get a swing low that trades below it?
● Look for a move higher thats sudden (DISPLACEMENT HIGHER). Then look for a FVG.
If it trades back down to the FVG then trade it

NQ! Example of the 1:30pm swing low being sweeped. Notice on the left there is a FVG where
the swing low was sweeped.

Here is the 1min. Below that level there is sell stops and I have the belief that we go higher
today. I wanna be buying those stops! All the sudden, you get a aggressive drop down. Its
gonna feel like the floor dropped out.

Look for the REAL moves in the morning and the REAL moves in the afternoon. If you get one
in the morning dont trade the afternoon. Go to demo and practice there.
Episode 6: Market Efficiency Paradigm and Institutional Order Flow

Smart money looks at liquidity

They are asking what is the underlying narrative in the market place right now?
● Bullish or bearish?
● Is the days daily range gonna go higher and how? Is it likely go lower beginning of the
day first to sucker traders into going short and run out sell stops? (to acquire long
positions at and then rally going into the close or afternoon)

Smart money asks how they can utilize that speculative uninformed money and its liquidity that
it provides.

The easiest entry would be trading just above candle #3 high. Thats where you put your limit
order. Place stop right above candle 1 or 2.
You want a big beefy bearish candle that closes low beneath that displacement low^
At 8:30am mark that lvl with a vertical line. Look left and mark the first swing high you see. Its
that simple. That is your buyside liquidity

Once you have that lvl you drop down to ur 5. When it starts to trade lower in that area you go
into the lower timeframes. You then look for your FVG on the 1,2,3 min
If in 2 cons, sell one at 50% level and the other at sellside liquidity.
Partials at Internal range liquidity.
Close trade at external range liquidity
Episode 7: Daily Bias and Consolidation Hurdles

After the DAILY gets filled on the FVG, until we get to that sellside liquidity, we are anticipating
lower prices. BIAS THEREFORE BEARISH. Not every day will be a down close candle but we
are going to hunt intraday PA with that in mind.

If going long, which is counter trend, leverage is going to be dialed back

Once price breaks the sellside liquidity and begins to hang around equilibrium, it becomes very
difficult to have a bias. This means you have to rely on the smaller time frame intraday charts
and simply look for liquidity pools.

Trade the intraday volatility. Running old highs and running old lows. Be much more nimble and
take ur exits at precise spots. Don't overstay ur welcome
NQ 15min

Heres the 2min. Notice how there is no FVG. ICT still went long here because he was using the
S&P as his indicator. These markets move in tandem
ES 2min

NQ did not show the bullish market shift that ES showed. Just like this example we can also use
the DOW as an indicator

ICT is looking at a period of time where, and an area in price action that maybe is going under
accumulation for long positions. Look for the little fingerprint in the algorithm. What this indicates
is that the DOW is unwilling to go lower that that low that tips off individuals that are looking for
cracks in correlation. That correlation cracks where NQ and ES went to make new lows, the
DOW didn't.

How do you know its gonna be a fake break below an old low and go higher?
How do you know its gonna be a fake break above an old high and go lower?
Look for runs above old highs to set up a short position if I have the opposite of this condition
here: Where maybe the DOW didn't make a higher high whereas the S&P and nasdaq did
make a higher high. By itself it doesn't mean anything. This pattern confirms the accumulation of
long positions.

Macro: Something inside of an algorithm that prevents or enables delivery of price.

Episode 8: Applying institutional order flow to forex markets

How far will this trade too? Were not looking left at that swing high like its a middle of the range
idea. For expansion type moves (if we dont have a range to trade inside of) how can we know
how far it will trade up or down?
Take a fib and anchor it to a previous swing. From that low to that high after we leave this
consolidation to start the trend higher. Target is standard deviation -1.
Episode 9: Power of 3 and New York PM session opportunities

Market traded back into a discount but did not take the recent swing low. Price formed a FVG on
the daily. Notice the indecisive candle close. If we have that and the market is trading back into
a discount even though we might have a low down here that we are targeting, this may require a
retracement.

Power of 3: accumulation, distribution, and manipulation

If bullish, expect the opening price to open near the low of the day/session. Then it trades lower
making some important low and then rallies. Creates a high and then closes near high of day.
Typically in London and New York session there are fake runs that start off a move.

If bullish,it opens, where you think its gonna trade higher its most likely gonna be a small little
move lower. Thats the move you wanna go in and hunt along. If you miss it, you wanna try and
get long real close to where opening price is. You can use 8:30 am as opening price and mark
that level horizontally
HOW TO FIND ORDER BLOCK:
Consecutive down closed candles right before a price surge that has an imbalance

High probability order block: Your narrative where your bias is bullish. You are looking for
displacement and the down close candles (prior) you wanna mark that out and anticipate a
return to that.

Heres the 1min. This sets the stage up of a market run into a higher retracement. We dont know
yet if that high is going to be the closing perimeter for a daily FVG. We dont need to know that
yet but its a likely scenario to go long.
If there is a lot of range movement overnight (2am-5am), when we open at 8:30 we must wait
for the consolidation and be patient. We wanna see a low form with a turn away from it. When
that low starts to go higher, anyone who longed overnight is gonna jam there stop loss right
underneath that low. This is the scenario we look for.

If there is a big run overnight, avoid the NY session! Wait until the other side of lunch. Anticipate
the NY lunch lows being taken out or NY morning session lows (which is the example below)

We now know the level near 14620 is the high end of that FVG. We know that bc the 14th
stopped trading and it had that indecisive candle on the daily chart. Its likely we might trade up
into that range high.

Hes waiting for a sweep of the low near the FVG

Notice how we don't have a FVG down there, but it gives us the basis for expecting the price to
start to rally into the afternoon.
So what are we looking at?
-we see a price run that we don't think needs to come back down here bc the logic is that
overnight stops have been ran out. Theres no reason for the market to come back down there.
-We have 2 lows post NY lunch (12-1pm). The likelihood of price coming all the way through the
imbalance and going after the first low is not likely. Not after that run up. They dont wanna give
those traders another chance to get back in. They got stopped out. Its gonna be a little more
sneakier when they make these setups that continue onto a higher run.

Overall this is a nice little setup on the afternoon. Even though we didnt get a FVG on the
sellside sweep, it established our bullish bias.

The FVG is even better when you have the sellside liquidity resting below short term low (green
price box)
Episode 10: Implementing Economic Calendar Events With The Open+P3

The market has been going lower. We take out some sell stops below that sellside liquidity. We
then get a natural retracement thats reasonable. Then we start to decline, come back up one
more time and fail to go above the recent swing high. Then breaks down and creates an
imbalance. Then it takes down that short term low. So we rallied, took out short term low with
the model suggesting the lowest lows on this chart to be taken out. Therefore any rally or
upclose candle should be viewed as a potential shorting candidate.

Power of 3 refers to the daily chart:

● If bearish, we will anticipate that the daily range opens, rallies, goes down and closes
near its low
● If bullish, we will anticipate that the daily range opens, rallies down, then goes up and
closes near it high.

Power of 3 refers to Accumulation, manipulation, and distribution.

The open on a day that is bearish, the open and anything above it is accumulation of shorts.
Its not limited to just open and above. It can be whatever the range is. The open to the high,
whatever that range is you take that range and you subtract it from the opening price. That is
your opening range. Thats where your FVG happen. Thats where your stop raids gonna
happen. Thats where optimal trade entry is going to happen. Every potential shorting candidate/
every premium array, will reside in form in the range between the open and its high.
Every short will reside between the open and it high
The range from the opening price to that high, is what you project below the opening price.
Thats your opening range. This gives you an area you can bracket out how much leeway I can
give the market when it starts to go below the opening price and still take a favorable entry.

There is a lot of opportunities coming in just below the opening price. This is called close
proximity entries.

When bearish:
Accumulation of shorts: Whatever the high is from the opening, project that down. Your sell
setups will form in that..
Manipulation: is the initial rally up. Thats the sucker play. Goes up just to go down hard
Distribution: Between where the LOD is and where it closes. Smart money's short positions
are what is being distributed. They are selling at the open and above or just below it, and riding
out the daily range.
When it creates the LOD how do you know when the LOD is formed?
Time references: If price has been really taking a beating going lower and your getting near
EOD (like 3:30pm),, its probably really close to the low. Not all the time though, sometimes it
creates a real fast sudden continuation and if you're not expecting it, it can be bad. Generally its
the last portion of the trading day. It will create some type of a low. Wherever it closes, between
that low and where it closes thats where the distribution cycle is occurring.

All I need to know is:

-Is this daily range more likely to expand higher or lower than the opening price?
THIS IS THE KEY TO BIAS
In the circle, we are seeing the market retrace back down into its previous run.
How far can it go down? Look at your high down to your low. Its probably going to go below
equilibrium to offer the market a discount. One it gets there, we are thinking its going to be the
open near the low, and expand higher. Its going to be accumulation of longs at the low and then
rally higher.

The whole move up we are looking for longs. We may get stopped out but we are not
abandoning the bullish bias until we get above the highs highlighted in the circle. Price is
drawing to it. Once it clears those highs we have to read it. Does it wanna go higher? It indeed
does so you keep expecting the open, rally down, then expansion. Now looking more on the
right, when price fills that FVG we now have a bearish bias until it moves back down to that
sellside liquidity.
Submit to the daily range and learn how to hold to the close. Why sit out on all that range when
you should have come into the day expecting this?

An efficient market will see the market go back up and repric that. It goes right back up like paint
being applied to a roller on a wall. You want to make sure you go back and forth to deposit the
paint evenly so theres an even distribution. On those long drawn out candles there is a strong
tendency for the price to go right back up and overlap over that entire range.

Why do we have a bearish power of 3 bias on this day?

We worked the upper end of that FVG on the daily, then we had multiple shifts in market
structure bearishly. We had a bearish bias on the daily chart anyway. So it gives you a high
probability that this day is going to be a down close day.

Where will setups form?

First setup will happen above Open price
Second will happen at/near the opening price
3rd inside of the range from the high to the opening projected down. Its in that vicinity there

Going back to that Daily chart, we are anticipating the opening and rallying up into maybe the
high end of that FVG or something forming at the news release at 8:30. If we look at price it was
starting to pump up higher ahead of the release. This is telling us they are pricing in a premium
market ahead of the news. So they are going to use the news to sink it lower. Because the
bearish bias is going to come into fruition. They are going to expand price lower and they
already established their shorts because they accumulated above the opening price.

The first FVG you encounter from the top down approach from the 5min is the one you use.

Breaker pattern: A high, a low, and a higher high

If we see breaker like this, think the market could potentially trade up into here. Im gonna use
the breakers candle and just above that for my stop.

If margins are raised, thats the exchange tipping their hand to you that huge moves are coming.
BIG MONSTROUS MOVES ARE COMING
Daily Bias:
What swing highs and swing lows can be taken out?
Look for FVG
Look for where price is relative to equilibrium (premium/discount)
Look for a Judas Swing

P3 in bullish scenario:
Green box: Accumulation
Red box: Manipulation
Blue box: Distribution

P3 in bearish scenario:

Episode 11
Swing high- simply anything that has a lower high candle to the left of it and a lower high
candle to the right of it. The one in the middle is your SWING HIGH

That retracement back into the FVG can lull traders into thinking price is going to likely go
higher. But we are thinking we go down to that daily level.
8:30 opens and we get the judas swing. We are anticipating weakness and want to take a short
somewhere above that price. We are anticipating price to draw towards that daily level (green
line). You get that imbalance there and a fvg entry and thats where you short.

Episode 12: Market Structure for Precision Technicians (advanced price action theory)

We are focusing on the PA in the FVG

The daily chart has the bulk of the volume thats coming into that marketplace.
When we look at price, we arent looking for just the simple HH and HL therefore its a bullish
uptrend.

We are actually looking at

● Is it likely to go up for stops? Or go down for stops?
● Is it going to go higher to rebalance? Or lower to rebalance?
All minor lower time frame swings are going to be subordinate to the daily chart (the parent of
this 1hr price structure.)
Should the LTH be broken to the upside, this means our daily analysis expecting that FVG to
hold price and to be a factor in the algorithm repricing and going lower at a later time, then we
are wrong in our analysis.

Long term highs are framed on higher timeframe resistance levels.

Every single time price rebalances an old imbalance, that swing high or low should be
immediately labeled as a ITH/ITL
1 hour:

15min:

Break it down to a science. We don't do TA, we do technical science.

ITH have two classifications:

-ITH that has a lower STH to the left of it and lower STH to the right of it
-Trades back up to an imbalance to rebalance

If we have a break beneath an ITH/ITL, we have a significant break in market structure.

If the ITH is not higher than two STH, that is telling you that the market is very weak and the
algo is tipping its hand to those people who are looking at it like this.

The order block is one consecutive series of upclose candles.

The usefulness of that is if were bearish and it rebalances, the next STH should be lower than
that ITH. WE DO NOT EXPECT THE ITH TO BE TAKEN OUT.Therefore we are forecasting
and anticipating a failed price swing in the order block.Everytime that green candle on the hourly
is forming we are looking at that as a bearish order block. From the beginning of that candles
low we should be looking in time on lower time frame charts(drop to the 15min). If it trades
higher then that trade idea is prob flawed. Just wait for market structure to get back in sync with
what ur expecting (something bearish).

Inside that range in the order block, we should be hunting FVGs

We dont need to see the market trade down below the last highest upclose candle.

Fractal: something that repeats on the smaller or higher timeframe thats similar in its formation.
In this example its the imbalance candle in the order block

Look at the underpinnings of the marketplace and examine what is it doing high to high and low
to low within a HTF premise. The premise was we go to the upper level of the daily FVG,
rebalance and then eventually trade lower down below sell side liquidity.
Once we establish the market structure on that hourly chart, we are not going down into lower
time frames below it and marking out all the swing highs and swing lows. We just need to know
what to look for on the timeframe we're trading on. The logic is based on the daily chart going
up to the imbalance to go lower. The hourly chart frames the trade. It gives us what we're
looking for to start hunting entry techniques. The 15min timeframe will give you the actual get in
and get out. We may not like the risk parameters on that timeframe though. So then we go into
lower time frames.

2 methods of getting Price targets:

-If we have a STL taken out and a ITL taken out or just an ITL taken out, then we can go back to
the range of the LTH and LTL to start getting projections down. That will give you generic price
targets.
- If price breaks below the LTL, you can take your fib and anchor it to the highest high down to
the lowest low (in this case its the ITH because this is where the swing begins on the decline)
The projection is -1.5 standard deviation. That how much lower it may go under the sell side
liquidity

Many ways to frame your trade, but you have to have something directly linked to the daily
chart.
When you see an imbalance get rebalanced, the high formed as it rebalances should not be
violated by price going higher than that if bearish

Institutional order flow:

When bearish, all of your upclose candles should keep price from going higher than them

Look at the markets from a market structure perspective by breaking down the price swings and
labeling them. Specifically an imbalance thats rebalanced. That ITH or ITL should not be
violated. Thats a key high or key low. That sets the stage for a market move that should unfold
and deliver to a HTF objective (Weakness in Nasdaq to take out its daily low).

While the market is moving in your favor, youre going to continue to trust that move and hold on
to your trade bc if your bearish upclose candles should keep price below it/the. They are speed
bumps. They may come back and touch them and act as a bearish order block.

If bullish, down close candles should support price. If it trades back down to them its gonna act
as a support structure for an order block. If it does go below it its only permissible if theres a
short term low in close proximity to it. Its then likely to go down and take out some sell stops if
bullish then reaccumulate and go higher.

Every time the market rebalances, classify that as an ITH/ITL. Then watch how prices stay away
from violating it.
Episode 13: Market Structure for Precision Technicians:

The area in the circle, when that black candles trades down towards that gap, notice the draw
on liquidity above at the relative highs. We should be thinking the algorithm is not letting price
go lower. So its going after everyone thats been profitable going short. So the market starts to
rally and leaves that down close candle. We're gonna watch and see if that candles can trade
back down into that because if it does we're going to treat it as a bullish order block.

The area in the highlighted circle is the ITL

When your looking for a price move thats going to be a long term price swing. Dont be scared
by the upclose or down close candles against your trend. Trust in price not to breach them

Below is the 15min chart. There's that hourly down closed candle (in the blue circle) which is a
bullish order block. Price goes away from it and creates an imbalance. That is how you
determine your high probability bullish order block. It must have the imbalance coupled with the
down close candle and the underlying narrative that its likely to reach higher for buyside
liquidity.
All it is:
● The FVG
● The down closed candle
● The idea that its likely to go higher for buy side liquidity
So were trading down into that imbalance there. But now were doing it at the time of day after
the equities open at 9:30am. This means volatility, the initial move is technically the incorrect
move going into the opening (JUDAS SWING).

Take a step back and figure out what it is im looking for:

-Looking for a discount market ( below 50% of swing high to swing low
-Inside the order block
-Equities opening has happened. Were bullish and its traded lower. Public is thinking that buy
side level is resistance after rejecting hard.

DON'T CHASE GOING HIGHER RIGHT BEFORE EQUITIES OPEN AT 9:30

Heres the 5min breakdown:

-Price hits the 1hr and 5min order block (GET LONG WHEN IT HITS IT) and then rallies
-Ideal exit would be the buy side liquidity, where there is WILLING BUYERS, with buy stops to
protect their short positions. When the market trades above that level the buy stops become
market orders to buy the market which floods the market with liquidity for those that bought
down where we did. We can sell to those willing buyers at a higher price.
Entry thesis:
-Price fills in the FVG and there's an order block on the 5min (thats our entry)
-It is also in line with a higher timeframe order block.
-There is a hierarchy: Higher time frame to a lower time frame with the idea framed on its going
higher for buy side.
- We have an ITL forming at the order block.
- Now when price fills the FVG, IT BECOMES AN ITL. Once it starts rallying it should not come
back down there.
- Remember that if price is going higher, down closed candles should support price. In the
picture below notice where the candle trades above the first down closed candle. A FVG is
forming and you should expect that candle to hold as support. We should look at this move in
the sense that its only going down to accumulate more long positions. WE BUY MORE HERE.

-Price then rallies again above the new down closed candles. We are not worrying about the
market as long as it doesn't take out the previous two down closed candles. In this case price
never went thru the range of those two down closed candles. It just trades down into an
imbalance SO SMART MONEY CAN BUY AGAIN, LIKE WE SHOULD!
-Market rallies again and goes into buy side liquidity where we exit

Notice in the blue circle how price doesn't even come back down into the order block. It
generally does not like to go all the way back and rebalance when it's that close to the profit
objective. The algorithm only has a small retracement inside the fvg. You would be a buyer just
at that candles low (pointed at in pic below).

Trailing Stop:
-Once price rallies over that first high (down closed candle in blue circle), YOUR STOP LOSS
MUST REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE CANDLES LOW (candle with first blue arrow)

-Market then rallies above and takes out those two down closed candles. Now the stop can be
raised below the next down closed candle.The idea is these down closed candles are one order
block that should not be violated if bullish. If it comes down and breaks the low of them you did
the right thing by securing profits.

Here's the 1min:

Pyramiding: Building the biggest position initially and then everytime we buy in again we build it
with a smaller position than we had prior to the one being entered now. Ex: Buy 3 at first entry,
then 2 at second, and 1 at third entry.
Don't become a monster that day trades every single day. Imagine playing a trade like the one
above. YOUR WHOLE WEEK WOULD BE DONE. These form every single week just be patient
and wait for the perfect setup.

Episode 15: Live example

Since this is at open, be cautious because there is a lot of volatility and price can overshoot that
low and stop you out even though you are right. That's ok, if it goes back into the FVG we will
still buy it.

We are watching for if it wants to go below that short term low first to take out the sell side. It
doesn't negate the FVG because we are using narrative. Narrative is that we expect people to
look at that low and say “okay its going to go up” and begin to buy here. There stops are at that
swing low
Above is where he took an entry

-So now we watch price and want to see it expanding.

-If trading the open stops can be taken really easily and then reverse.
-Target is the FVG at the 860 level which is also above equilibrium (premium)

-There's a small FVG in the last 3 candles up. It doesn't have to fill in or even revisit. If it were
to, we would expect price to be supported by that. In other words, not going below the 630 level.
At this point, we could put the stop loss on at entry, and if it takes us out then we would be
sidelined and wouldn't take any trades today because its FOMC. ON FOMC DAYS YOU CAN
TRADE IN THE MORNING BUT YOU HAVE TO BE DONE EARLY

MISSION SUCCESS

Episode 16: Idea of multiple setups inside of the trading sessions

Price breaks over buy side and forms a swing high. Once that down close candle above buyside
closes, we are looking to go short the next day. So we could anticipate the bearish power of 3.
Which is a rally at open upside, then fade and close near low of day. We are in a premium
market here. The idea of price retracing back to that bullish Order Block is favorable.
We are looking for is:
-Power of 3
-Expansion move lower because of that Daily Bullish Order Block

The idea of liquidity resting beneath those relative equal lows (bottom left) without the Order
block is likely. Its is FURTHER likely if we have a discount array, which is the bullish Order
Block on the daily. We have multiple factors here for that general area being probed for the
purpose sell stops being raided.

If that swing high trades down to that swing low, and we break that low how far can we go
down? Use fibs

There are two opening prices:

Midnight 12am
NY open 8:30am
It doesn't matter which candle to use

If bearish, ideally you want to see market trade above opening price. That is called manipulation
(Judas Swing). Later in the day we expect it to go below sell side liquidity. If it accelerates below
that it will most likely go below relative equal lows sell side (bottom left). Then below that we
have the Bullish Order Block. Notice there a lot of things are coming together that draw on a
great deal of probabilities.

How much lower below the daily order block level can we go? So once we get that displacement
candle on the 15min and break the short term low, we can enter in the FVG. If price breaks that
key fulcrum point, we get the range from there to swing high and extend it down.

Take fibs from the bodies of candles (lowest open/close to highest open/close)
Targets would be the -0.5 fib then -1 (which is just below that Daily bullish order bock)
Notice how accurate that -1 Fib level was. Price bounced off the level to the CENT! The order
block level is just above, but price stabbed into what the algorithm is going to measure.

The order block + relative equal lows + fib measurements= Precision

Precision element is only going to be beneficial if you have all the other narratives
incorporated into you analysis:
-Market is going to go lower bc we ran out those relative equal highs on the DAILY
-Swing high created
-Broke lower aggressively, we are likely to trade into that daily bullish order block
-Retracement on the 1hr/15min which fills in all the imbalance above
-We get FVG on the 15min
-We get the candle back into the FVG and once it closes we wanna see acceleration to the
downside (which we get)
-Price trades lowe and lower right to the exact fib level

Fibs are most meaningful when you apply and layer other things in analysis like the purpose of
running to liquidity, below those relative equal lows into a discount array (Bullish Daily order
block)
This move up is the market trading into a premium
-We break aggressively and have a displacement down
-Did it take out a swing low? Yes
-trades into imbalance? Yes
-trades above opening price? Yes

Here's the 5min:

It looks much different. You probably would not see this as a sell, youd have looked for the 5min
fvg to get filled. The higher time frame (15min) provides you the FRAMEWORK. Price does not
need to trade into that.

In the morning session you typically have 2-3 setups

Heres the 1min:

FIRST OPPORTUNITY: We have a FVG right above a short term high. We trade up into it and
thats a setup we should take.

There are plenty more setups here on the 1min. Its ok if you miss the 15min gap fill. You can
play the continuation down.
SECOND OPPORTUNITY: Target here would be the sell side liquidity from the fulcrum pivot for
first partial. Then final scales on Daily OB
THIRD OPPORTUNITY: You get another short term low broken off an imbalance candle. Take
an entry in FVG

FOURTH OPPORTUNITY: We have the imbalance after we aggressively moved lower and then
the retracement back to the FVG
-YOU HAVE NO REASON TO BE MAD YOU MISSED A TRADE. TRADES ARE JUST LIKE
BUSES. THEY WILL ALWAYS BE THERE AND COME AROUND. DON'T WORRY.

-Your #1 goal is to understand where price is likely to go to. Where is it likely to reach
for? By knowing this it is easy to know what you are looking for

PM Session Buy Side liquidity pool: This high was the most energetic one in the morning
session. It took us all the way down to the target we were looking for (Daily Bullish Order Block)

Because its friday and because it hit the daily time frame objective, its in a discount market. End
of week there's going to be a retracement back into the weekly range.
It can aim for that liquidity right there because a lot of ppl are going to place there stops there
over the weekend if they wanna hold their shorts.

That area is where you would anticipate on Fridays where liquidity could be a draw because
price is likely to pull up into a premium.
(Draw fib from this pivot high to low highlighted in the circle to find
50% level)

There's going to be short covering once our higher time frame objective is met.
Who is short covering? SMART MONEY!
So if they are covering a short they are NO LONGER BEARISH. This means they are now
bullish. If they are going to be smart money and buy down there or if they're going to go long off
an imbalance down in that area, they are targeting the buy stops at PM SESSION BUY SIDE.
Notice the relative equal lows right before price hits the daily order block. This sells the retail
crowd that it was support broken and they're going to wanna short the retest. This creates more
liquidity for buying.
This engineers buy side liquidity on the basis of sell side flow.

Oversimplified explanation of how the market works:

The algorithm seeks discount to premium, premium to discount.
Within that logic, the market is reaching for liquidity (buy stops/sell stops) and/or imbalances or
the creation of an imbalance FVG, or returning back to a FVG. Thats all these Algos do and
they do it on the basis of time then price.
ALL WE LOOK FOR:
-LIQUIDITY
-IMBALANCES
-TIME OF DAY

Price falls back into an imbalance as well as mitigation block (not taught yet). Target on this
entry is the PM session buy side liquidity.

If you look to the left of the highlighted area you will see an old high.
Old highs are a discount array.
If we trade above an old high it becomes a discount array. This is where old highs being broken
become support (SOMETIMES).

What makes an old high/low real support or resistance?

We are saying the market is going to bounce from the Daily bullish order block up into the PM
session buyside. So if the market comes back down in and touches, it couldve touched that
previous high but there was an old high to the left. Price came down and hits that and also fills
in an imbalance. When you have that old highs broken will act as support.

Price has fulfilled part of buy side liquidity. We see a market structure shift and price going
lower. A FVG forms which presents a short entry. You aim for the low near 4526 or the bullish
order block.
OR
wait for confirmation entry. After we get a break in the structure of the market place on the 1
minute chart, a couple imbalances are created. Price trades up into them (remember if there's
more than 1 let price trade into the second one and enter when price get back into the first)
Episode 17: Applying the ICT strat to forex

Heres a daily chart. Since that most recent down closed candle didn't hit that sell side
(highlighted) or the one below that, we have unfinished business. We are therefore still bearish.
Every single time price rallys up above opening price doesnt necessarily mean thats a time to
get in. BUT, when you couple that with time of day and price it becomes a lot better.

Price overshoots the imbalance but what it really wanted to go to the last upclose candle
(bearish order block). We know its a bearish order block because we have the imbalance and
displacement move down.
Heres the 5min:

Price ralles once more above the opening price at midnight.

Why doesnt it take out that high to the left?
Because it has an imbalance which tells you its an intermediate term high. If we are bearish we
shouldn't take that high out

This is an ITH because were expecting lower prices, it went above the opening price at
midnight, and it has an imbalance. Price retraced there just to hit the OB.

How to find the Bearish order block:

-the body of last upclose candle prior to a displacement move down

Your buy stop is going to flood the market with buyers willing to pay at a higher price than it was
here before it runs higher and youre going to buy the counter partys side of the smart money
that wants to sell short because every buyers has to have a seller

Index trading:
FOCUS ON 8:30am-11am
Episode 18: Good info on OB
(everything in this video is specific to forex)

Which is lower?
The discount low of the FVG (Bottom FVG)

Price has come way down in terms of the range from the swing high to swing low. This makes
the area were in now discount. As soon as the FVG forms we know that it is likely to see it rally
up into it (a short term little bounce). That occurring and trading back to the bottom FVG is
enough to set the stage for a new round of selling.

Now look for targets. That daily low is an ideal scenario but it is not likely to do that in one day.
Frame your previous daily Highs/Lows. The low of that FVG creating candle is your most
probable intra day target. LOTS OF LIQUIDITY ON PREVIOUS DAILY HIGHS/LOWS

If you mark the last 3 days highs and lows there will always be a fresh supply of setups.
This is what chart would look like when FVG forms. Once you get the FVG fill you look for shorts
with the expectation of price drawing down towards daily SSL. The low of that candle will give
you the intraday range. Then we watch price and look for setup on smaller timeframe

We run the highs and now we wanna see a displacement. We get that here
Heres the 5min:
We know price must at least get up into the 15min FVG.
THE HIGHER TIMEFRAME FVG ARE GOING TO BE PARENT TO THE SUBORDINATE
SMALLER TIMEFRAMES.

Why did we like this FVG over the others?

The low of the candle being pointed to is where the order block begins.
We have all three of these candles making one consecutive bearish order block
That run there is the run above the imbalance and the run on liquidity. Thats the bearish order
block.
What makes an order block valid? It has to have an imbalance

As soon as we get below that candles open, the market starts delivering sell side, then breaking
that swing low. Now we have changed gears internally. Any rally after that is just setting up
another run to go lower. Therefore this high is an intermediate term high where your stop loss
should be

If we are going short in a FVG and it has a small one above it, expect that it might trade up there
so your risk has to incorporate that.

Stop loss should be here:

Episode 19: mean threshold/Purge and revert
We remain bullish

Here's the 1hr:

Targets would be sellside liquidity grabs and ultimately the 50% equilibrium

Institutional order flow is rooted on higher time frame bias.

Do not try to pick tops and bottoms. Theres a lot of opportunity between intermediate term highs
and lows.
Heres the 15 min:
We have a bearish order block here. We can use the low of the lowest upclose candle and its
opening price. You draw that out in time and we hammered it.
Why is this an order block? Its because its where price was delivered on the upside, even
though they are indecisive candles there that upclose right before the displacement to the
downside.

GO TO MINUTE 23 FOR REALLY GOOD ORDER BLOCK ANALOGY (think of the OB as a

bookmark)

Daily EUR/USD:

Heres the 1hr:

The 62% and 79% retracement levels are what ICT teaches as optimal trade entry range, but its
not optimal trading entry for the setup. In other words we could be a buyer down in that FVG
highlighted and trade back up to the 62% retracement level. This is a version of a contrarian
trade against the higher timeframe bias.

So now we are in a sideways congestion/chop area. We have to wait for displacement now. If
we get a displacement lower, we wanna look for the same type of move down we just saw just
repeated later on. If it goes higher we dont care at that point because it hit our objective. Our
objective was we wanted to see euro go below that daily low.

Here's the 15min:

Keep in mind we have now taken out sellside so the next thing the market may want to do is run
up to take buyside liquidity. When price trades back down into that FVG, we are thinking that
since it created that short term high its going to want to run back up into that to take buy stops.
But, even if it doesnt, if we just get above the bodies of the candles at that high and reach up
into that 62% retracement level on the hourly thats a good enough place to sell. This isnt a trade
setup ICT recommends for beginners because you are going against the order flow of the
market

ES 1D:
Below we see price hit the equilibrium/short term discount of the daily dealing range. Because
of that there is a likelihood that the daily bias is going to be bullish and retrace. What can we do
with that info?
If its likely to go higher the next day or the day after that, its ok if the next day price goes
down/doesn't move. Simply go into the next day expecting it to go higher.

—---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mid point of this candle is the mean threshold
Mean threshold: The half point of an order block

Why should we be concerned about this highlighted green candle?

Because right before that downside displacement it was the last upclose candle.

This is your premium array: Price is going to draw up into that.

Targets could be the low of that candle which is the easiest (bearish order block), the open, the
mean threshold, and the high (less likely)

As developing students we want to sell at the low hanging fruit and pick the easiest targets. In
this case that would be the low of the candle.
Purge and Revert: On the daily we purged selltops and its going to revert back to the high of
the last 3 days (pointed at below). This is because that level has buy stops above from ppl who
are short and use trailing stops

1HR:

What is the narrative here?

-We have the market trade below that short term low about 50% of its daily range.
-We purged the sell stops so now where is it going to go? Higher because it needs to go to buy
side because it's now collected sell stops so smart money is going to offset those buy orders
that they used to pair up with the sell stops below these lows (highlighted above). They bought
those sell stops so now they are net long.
-How do they get out? They have to sell them to willing buyers
At that low and highlighted low, whos going to buying from them at a higher price? The buy
stops resting at those relatively equal highs

Heres the 15min:

Midnight price is preferably the price we want to be buying below in this case.

There are times where price goes straight up from midnight and never goes below it. This is
when we use the 8:30 time because of the news drops

Last ditch for power of 3 is 8:30.

This means that if bullish: if the opening price at midnight is lower than what price is trading at
after 8:30, then its likely not going to be a factor. You would use 8:30.

If there is a day like in the example above where we have the opening price at midnight there
and we are BULLISH bias and were already below it and then after 8:30 were still below it, WE
ARE REALLY IN A DISCOUNT. We are REALLY CHEAP!
So if were bullish and we think its going up to those relatively equal highs, we like this
movement down. Wait for 8:30. If we drop below its opening price and were below the
opening midnight price WE ARE REALLY REALLY OVERSOLD! That move there is like a
micro judas swing (building low of NY session) for the session of NY. The midnight move
down was a judas swing on the daily range/candle (building low of daily candle). Both are
using P3 concept

Heres the 5min:

There is a FVG and bullish order block. At 8:30 were looking left and asking where are our short
term swing lows because we wanna absorb sell stops because smart money will pair that with
their buys and looking for an imbalance.
Heres the 1min:
Market has a run above that short term high. So we have a shift in MS thats bullish and a FVG.
You then have the bullish order block with those 3 consecutive down closed candles prior to fvg.
This is your long entry.

We have a second entry when price goes up over the midnight open price, it has a fvg below.
Episode 20
Dollar 1hr:

Heres the 15 min:

Dollar is inverted with the euro

EUR/USD 1h:
Price went and reached into the previous weeks high and at that same instance the Dollar made
its low and hits it objective. If there is a buying opportunity on dollar its a selling opportunity on
EUR/USD.

EUR/USD 15min:

2min:
Has the very clean FVG after sweeping liquidity. It trades lower and breaks a short term low.
Why dont we use this low (highlighted) as the short term low to break?
The FVG forms once that green one minute candle closes. The very next candles essentially
opens right at that low. So it hasn't really moved away and it hasn't really shown you
displacement (something energetic where it moves away from that FVG).

So now we have that FVG there. Price then moves lower than that STL and we have a shift in
market structure.

Look at how much money you have in account and times it by 1%. 1% is maximum risk you
should take
5min:
Targets would be equilibrium from swing low to swing high. FInal target is that FVG highlighted
Episode 21: Example of P3 not working

Risk off scenario: Implies that generally every other market or asset class will start to decline.
Money pours into the dollar and out of foreign currencies.

As the dollar went up, ES went down

May is usually a seasonal decline. We are going to be looking for signatures to warrant
downward pressure in this particular asset class and reaching for those relatively equal lows on
the daily chart
Why did we think price would go down to the 99.92 level?
If we were making the market we would dip it down below 100 and stop somewhere short
beneath that level and go to 99.5 or 99.92 then start to work it higher. Why? Because it would
convince everyone out there that the dollar is probably topped. Then it rips to highs lol.

Why did we think it was gonna rally from there?

We are bullish on the dollar

Why did we hint that we would be going lower into the S&P relative equal lows?
As we enter into May thats a seasonal tendency

ES 1D: price is going to draw towards daily SSL after filling FVG

1hr:

15min:
ICT wanted to see a bit of a judas swing here at the midnight open around 15-20 pts but we
didnt get it.

Keep in mind we are bearish for today

Did we rally above midnight open? NO
Did we rally above 8:30 open? NO

What does this indicate?

Its EXTREMELY BEARISH. Price can't even rally to a short term premium above opening price
at key levels and time.

-These types of movements are going to be frustrating because you will feel like they are
changing something. This actually happens a lot and it's nothing to worry about. Sometimes the
markets are simply too heavy and they aren't gonna rally for you to short into.

Midnight open price: Useful for trading the london session (2am-5am) and it helps us frame P3
for the daily range.
-If bearish, look for something to rally above opening price in london session
-If bullish, look for decline below opening price

8:30 opening price: Use for P3 for NY session (8:30-11:00am)

London open setup:

This was the move that setup the only real sound entry that took place today.
Notice the MSS below short term low, Displacement,FVG, & Bearish OB

This imbalance here can be traded to on a spike. Its ok, your entry is still on the lower FVG. You
are going to use a stop that allows the market to trade up into there. You may not like that much
risk or you may not be able to even take the trade. Thats all part of the game.

Heres the 8:30am 5min open:

Normally with the mentorship model we are taught to look for something to the left prior to 8:30
(some type of short term high we wanna rally up to, run some stops, then break down and
create displacement, run into imbalance and sell off)

The model DOESNT EXIST in today 5min chart PA

Heres the 4min chart:

What happens at 9:30am open?

There is initial volatility. It can be whipsaw, where it can go up and down real short term, and go
both directions in a small or even large range and clear both sides of the buy and sell liquidity.
Then whatever the real move is going to be for the day, we wait for that to unfold.

Heres the 3min:

This bearish OB here is useful because you have a bit more insight into what its doing. Its too
heavy, its not likely to rally, theres no reason to look to go long. Start looking for reasons to get
short and any time you get an imbalance and were above those relative equal lows on the daily
chart bc its going to draw down into that. Thats the heaviness objective. Price is gravitating
towards it.

When we wake up and look at the market, were looking at what has happened over night and
did we create a scenario that we would be looking to trade if we were awake during london. If it
happens then we know that were really built in with an advantage on the daily bias because if
we are bearish and it creates a rally above the midnight opening price and it starts to decline
and we are below that around 7am in the morning (when ict wakes up) we know that price is
likely to create another little short term rally ideally above the 8:30 open! In this case it did not
do that and price just remained heavy.

Heres the 2min:

Heres the 1min:
These are all simple little imbalances to get in sync with whats already in motion, not needing to
see it rally above the 8:30 opening price bc its not likely to. It takes a bit of courage to get in and
trade these types of setups but thats what you do. OR you dont do anything and just tape read

You need to have time and price behind you before you start moving your stop loss
Episode 22: Amazing examples of the model setup in fractals

ES 1D:

1hr:

15min:
Price broke short term high at open and then breaks lower
It then creates an imbalance down
Did it take a high out? YES
Did it break below a low? YES
Was there displacement? YES it was energetic
Did we trade back up into it? YES. In there we can be a seller and get in sync with the run to the
REQ

—-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here the 8:30 open is marked. We traded above it, making price in a premium. Price being
above that old high also makes it a premium. This is P3 in effect.
Smart money would be selling short the buy stops and riding the move down. Then
offloading their shorts to sell stops below those relative equal lows.

● Any time the market trades above an old high, that is a short term premium.
WHY? Because its going into liquidity
● Any time the market trades below an old low, thats a discount
Lot of ppl/retail out there that wanna short the break of the lows. Thats going to flood the
market with market orders to sell at the market. Thats a perfect counter part for smart
money being short up there because they want to buy it at a lower price.

Market structure is not the answer. It helps you frame the idea but the idea must be in alignment
with the present narrative.

Narrative is: Why should the market go where you think its gonna go on that particular day?
Based on the climate, the economic calendar events, and the volatility thats being offered for
that particular trading day

5min:

1min:
Is there a short term low broken? YES (pointed at)
Was there displacement? YES
Does the market come back up into the FVG? YES
Is it above opening price? YES
THIS IS ENOUGH FOR A VALID SHORT ENTRY

5min again:
After 1:30 theres usually some sort of a retracement higher when bearish
Or retracement lower when bullish.
Below price retraces above REH into an imbalance (You can go short here)33

NASDAQ 5min:
We ran buy stops and broke a short term low with strong displacement
Notice here we have 2 FVGs. We can enter on the first one but stop has to take into account
that we expect price to stab up into the higher one!

Key thing to note about these FVGs: They are in a premium above equilibrium and in
OTE of displacement range. Thats why we dont mark that big ass one

Also notice that we have a fractal within the setup we spoke about above. We break buyside,
take a short term low, and break it with displacement creating another small FVG. Therefore
that highest high we see on the chart is considered a LONG TERM HIGH. The lower high we
see next is considered an ITH.

This is going to be a short term high inside of a market structure that is really predisposed to go
lower bc we have long term and intermediate term highs above us. This highlighted high should
respect the underlying order flow and go lower

1min: Below we see the 5min OB highlighted, but now we must refine it
Refined for the 1min OB. Get in at the 50% level of it
Also notice how we get ANOTHER fractal of the MODEL SETUP:
-Break of short term low on displacement, trade back up into FVG as well as bottom of the
bearish OB and short.

SMT:
ES 5min: notice the rally after 8:30 is lower than the high around 2:30am

NQ 5min: Over here the rally is higher

Its showing a willingness to crack the correlation between markets.

If we are bearish and expecting lower prices and we see NQ make a new high but the S&P
doesn't, thats showing us that NQ is doing a stop run and it shows that S&P is REALLY weak.

This gives you like an x-ray view of real accumulation and distribution. That higher high on NQ
is distribution

When using FIBS: Use the bodies of the lowest open/close of the swings
Why? Its the bulk of the volume. We look at the wicks as stop running. We want to get to
the heart of the matter.

Episode 23
Go short in the yellow FVG zone targeting the recent low and finally the checkered flag area.
Sweep the high :Sweeping just above buy/sell side and coming back down. Example of this
above
Running the high: Runs right over the high and doesn't look back

There are 8 setups here, can u spot them?

TIP: For fomc draw fibs from bodies not wicks. This takes into account the extra volatility
Episode 24: Quick refresher on mentorship model

Daily: We wanted for price to run the buyside THEN make its move lower. We ddnt get that

1h: Looking for run above highlighted BSL. If it can get above that then it could wash out and go
lower.
Whats the reason to be interested in these REHs? Its Thursday and ahead of NFP friday.
NFP can usually be messy, volatile, and unpredictable. We wanted for those highs to be taken
out then create the mentorship model. V
Whats the catalyst that sets the run up into those REHs?

If our focus is those REHs and price is dropping down ahead of 9:30am, we are likely to see a
drop down getting traders to think it will go lower and then rally up.

That FVG below is a POI for us so that we can go in and look for something that gives us our
setup. Its an area where it may/could give us a setup.

So at 9:30 am we are expecting a drop down into this FVG.

We are now looking for price too meet our criteria:
● Trading beneath an old low to capture sell stops:
● Displacement back above those old lows:
5min:
We DID NOT get displacement above that old low.

Mentorship model review:

There is no trade trigger until short term low is broken with strong displacement

FVG based entry (Imagine a fvg above and price is approaching from below)
Episode 25: Great top down example+stop loss tips
Price should not trade above the high of this order block. We are aiming for the fvgs below and
finally that sell side. Why? Its May

Seasonal tendencies: Times of the year where specific asset classes will usually (not always)
produce price swings that follow a seasonal tendency.

May tends to be a down month

Every year about the last week of April going into the month of May theres usually a tendency
for these markets (S&P,NQ,DOW, RUSSEL) to be WEAK.
What took place here?
Smart money sold to the buy stops. They are now sitting with a net short position.
How do they get out of that position? They have to buy it back.

How can they buy it back at a cheaper price, guaranteeing them that they are going to be
buying from lower priced sellers? Find the sell stop here:
Once price takes out old lows like this what can it do?
-Notice on chart there is no FVG in the prior three days
-Notice what Monday's candle did: opened, extended down, and closed near low on a rather
large rang day. What do we do with this information?

Go back to the previous day's low! This is going to be important because the next trading day, if
we open UP and bc we are below those relative equal lows on the DAILY chart and below the
swing low (to the left). We are now in a DEEP discount!

Retail will call this day a mixed/indecisive day. That's just not true
1hr:
Market runs above BSL at 9:30am and hits that old low. Now all the buy stops have been
purged. They've been dragged into the market by their hair kicking and screaming. They are
caught long or they've been short and are knocked out of their position. Either way it doesn't
matter to us we just know that BSL is likely to be utilized to set up and idea for smart money to
be short. Why?

BIAS IS STILL BEARISH. We are not trying to pick the bottom

So if were doing this like smart money and we wanna be short up there at this trigger event,
where would you wanna sell that? Prev swing low on the 1hr and PDL SSL.
Lets go in and use the logic with this idea of rebalancing mondays daily range keying off of the
the red level. Notice that the BSL is ran first. This is REALLY important!!! If we would have
gone down and took the previous low out first THEN ran up, that is not bearish.

Price running above BSL at 9:30am, hitting the PDL level without having that SSL below
taken out is BEARISH bc it in the context of the bias that were looking for.

When were operating in a bearish bias, what were essentially saying is the markets going to go
up to a premium for one of two reasons:
- Run an old high or highs to take out BSL so that way smart money can counterparty
them with their short positions by selling to those buy stops then seeking to buy cheaper
sell side liquidity.

Essentially we are just running to a premium then seeking discount.

The liquidity resting below that labeled SSL is not necessarily a target or utilization for anybody
in any other retail idea. No one except smart money expects it to be taken out.
15min:
At 8:30 we are looking for the news embargo to lift which means the algorithm will start seeking
liquidity as early as that time. It might wait till 9:30 (like below).

Price is rebalancing that entire Monday range. Its going back to the old low of the previous day
prior to monday (Friday). When you see that it tricks people into thinking that it has made the
low and its going to keep going up when the only thing it has done is its gone up to a logical
level on that daily time frame that rebalances all of that sell off on monday.

On the 15min it does not look like its an imbalance but on DAILY candle its a large down day.
All that movement is big in terms of distribution on the downside.

Framework (keep in mind we have a bearish daily bias):

-Look for REH
-At 8:30 price is going to start looking for high or highs to run
-How far can it go? Fridays Low
-Power of 3 Judas swing up? Yes
5min:
When were bearish, the hour long interval (from 8:30-9:30) we are expecting a run higher to set
up shorts.
The short could form inside that hour or it could provide the leg that sets up the framework that
will eventually provide you the setup.

All of it is a matter of studying what the markets providing you.

Highlighted area is the Judas swing. At the time retail wont see this and they will be caught off
guard.

Highlighted range below is the displacement price swing. That's the leg on a 5 min chart you
strip down and start going from 5,4,3,2, and 1 until you find your FVG.

4min:
Is there an FVG here? NO
Why is the FVG pointed to not valid? Its in a discount and we only short in a premium.

3min:
Is there an FVG? NO

2min:
Is there a FVG? YES
Lets discuss stops:

Initially when you open a trade up the rule is you wanna use the high of the candle that creates
the FVG and set your stop 1-2 ticks above that.

When do you start moving your stop?

You wanna see a larger shift in structure. When this low is taken out, then you can move your
stop down here for example (pic on right).

Why? Because it's already broke down. It's not gonna break that low and go all the way back up
where your stop is. If it does well then you're probably wrong or it's gonna consolidate which
means its going to be ugly conditions to be working within anyway.

See the logic? I'm accepting the fact that I'm probably going to be wrong if it stops me out but
who cares if it does.
Episode 26: Example Of Tape Reading Practice
Episode 27: Counter Trend Ideas
NQ Daily: Price is drawing towards those REH pointed at. We want to look into the lower
timeframes for a setup that will allow us to participate in the expansion move up there. We don't
have to get there though to make money

NQ 1H:

NQ 15 min:
At 9:30 we see a manipulation move down and takes out the overnight London Low then rallies.

NQ 5 min:
-NY session creates LOD (judas swing) taking sell side from the REL then rallies and makes a
high at 12:10 (Lunch time usually creates a retracement/consolidation of some sort).
-Price then retraces lower
-At 1:30 the algorithm will start seeking liquidity.
If its going to continue higher, what is it likely to do? Seek SELLSIDE IN DISCOUNT

This displacement on the upside is a shift in market structure in a day that's:

- likely to be bullish
-Counter trend to a higher time frame
-Were working with the logic that its probably going to be a retracement because we've been
down for a long time now and most people are probably going to wanna get out over the
weekend so that algorithm is going to start SQUEEZING on them to get their positions squared
before the close of the Friday.

NQ 2 min:
-Here we have the down closed candles prior to displacement acting as the OB.
-We have a shift in market structure creating FVG
-We have an imbalance
-Price retraces down and we enter long

Look at how the market created this counter trend idea still using FVG principle and concept
BSL rests above.

The day was bullish

The algorithm kept pricing higher higher and higher.

Logic was delivered

Take first partial at halfway from high to low because we want to take a profit once were in a
premium
Episode 28: 2min example video

ES 1 min:
Notice the SMT which shows ES is the stronger contract because it didn't make a new low

NQ 1min:

ES1min step by step walk thru:

Bagged and Tagged
Episode 29: Brief review of 5/16/22
ES 1D:

ES 1 min:
Around 9:30 we see the market take out a STH and decline. We dont short because it does not
give us a pattern anway. The market then creates some REL then starts to rally. We want to see
it create a buying opportunity.

The logic behind this is that we are in a day before the FED chair speaks. So there is going to
be very low volatility as a result of that. There's going to be a small range day. This doesn't
mean we cant trade it but it does take more experience. Overall its best to avoid.

ES and NQ 1 min:
-Notice how NQ made a lower low here when ES made a higher low.
-ES resisted going lower
-We then retraced higher
-NQ then comes back down and makes another lower low whereas ES isnt going lower than the
10am low
-We now have a divergence. The importance of that is that I already have a bullish bias. There
was no short trades that were lined up with the model today. There was no interest in being
short, we wanted to go long.

ES 1 min:
We get this nice setup off a SSL grab that displaces up and creates a MSS with FVG. We don't
think price will trade all the way down to that SSL left of the chart bc we are BULLISH. Notice
how many times the FVG GAVE US A CHANCE TO GO LONG!
Core Content - Month 1 - Elements Of A Trade Setup

-When the market consolidates, the market will be looking to do an expansion.

-All markets start from a consolidation and move into an expansion. That means there's an
impulse move or an impulse expansion.

-After that impulse swing either it goes back into consolidation again or it goes into a
retracement.

-When the retracement happens it goes back down into another level of expansion or after the
expansion it can go to a reversal pattern. After the reversal pattern itll see another retracement
then back to potentially consolidation.

-These 4 conditions interchange throughout the ups and downs of the marketplace. You're only
gonna get 1 of these 4 conditions

You just need to know:

-Where its at right now
-Where its likely to go
-Where it came from
All the moves that start in the marketplace start from a measure of consolidation bc that's where
the markets are building orders.

-The market maker keeps the market in a tight/defined range until there's enough money on
both sides of the upper and lower end of the range that's being defined.

- Whichever one has the highest amount of money to be absorbed, thats the direction its going
to move in. We don't always know what that is but we WAIT for the expansion. When that
occurs we get the clue as to what the market is most likely going to be doing.

-We then wait for either retracement or another consolidation or reversal. Sometimes it expands
so far that we cant do anything with it. We have to wait for the retracement or next
consolidation.

-Price will always be delivered by one of these 4 conditions.

When the market drops aggressively like this there's going to be pockets where price wasn't
actually delivered on every available price level in that range. It moved too quickly and skipped
or created gaps.
Notice how fibs are from wicks
Episode 30: Down top example
1min:
At 2pm the Fed chairman was speaking. We saw a judas swing up that fell 1 tick short of the
morning high at 12535.50.

The market then drops down below REL which are the LUNCH HOUR LOWS.

We are taught that many times when there is an Afternoon continuation to the upside, you'll see
that the lows at lunch time will get swept.

Price fell right into this imbalance. This whole move down is manipulation before the true move
up. All longs who took that flag break are trapped. Any long holders from the morning are trailing
there stop below REL. So the market takes them both out before making the real move.

Entries could be right in the imbalance or on the retracement to the OB

5min:
The REH was treating the retail market like “hey you can trust us price wont come back up
here”. It looked too clean.

Notice how there was no model in the manipulation move down.These algorithmic principles are
not likely to appear in markets that aren't likely to deliver like were taught. Thats ok. We can get
in on the real move up once manipulation is over.

15min:
Price falls back into an OTE of 15m dealing range then rallies up to BSL
1h:

Daily:
We were bullish bias aiming for REH
If you are bullish and price consolidates during lunch, find the lunch lows, wait for it to
get run out, then price will resume up.

Episode 31: Top down example

1D:
1H:
Attention should have been on May 16 lows being taken out

15min:
Notice entry was at 15min -OB
5min:
Here that zoomed in on the 5. Stop would be where pointer is.

2min:
We can fine tune our entry a bit more here
A swing high is created here. Once that red candle on the right of pointer closes, we are going
to just get in short.

We trust the fact that:

- we've had a FVG
- we went though the fvg
-we have a swing high and it's bearish
-We are looking for a run below the May 16th lows
Once we are in, our stop is just above the swing high. Everything Is reduced in terms of risk on
this type of entry.

Lunch time plays:

Since were bearish, look for the lunch time high to be taken out for a move further down. Price
taken it out and runs right into a FVG.
We then get another play shortly after. Price consolidates, takes out the stops, and runs right
into a FVG in OTE

Episode 32: Consolidation/chop day example

ES 1d:
We had an outside day couple days ago.Price falls short of running the old low and when this
happens it tends to be a choppy day.

1hr:
We will be looking deeper into this fractal

It could be easy to fall victim to in this type of trading day. Its choppy, back and forth.
5min:
Statistically bias moves to 50/50 when we start trading back into the middle of the range.

Why didnt price move lower and take out the STL at 3855? It went below 3872.25 STL then
started rallying towards REH at 3933.25.

ICT said to add a vertical line to 3pm and 4pm. Between this time the setup that forms to take
us back down into middle of the range occurs.

ICT outlined how the market would use the running up to take out buystops and also induce ppl
that it was going to go higher so that way it builds up liquidity below the higher lows.

If we are looking for setups that are gonna be based on a run above buyside and then pullback
into the range, it needs to be specific in terms of time. In this case 3-4pm
1min:
Do we have MSS/break a swing low? Yes
Is there a FVG? Yes
Do we trade back into the fvg? Yes
Price then works lower back into the middle of the range

This day was a consolidation day. Market starts trading and creates an initial range and then
stays in that range until the afternoon.

At 3pm-4pm, thats sets the tone for on close orders.

What does that mean?

Market was rallying up prior to 3pm. It went up for buy side liquidity.
Traders gonna look at that as a breakout to go higher and they are going to pair that with the
market participants that are considered smart money.
Price ran above all the buystops that are in the highlighted circles. These are where all the
shorts palace their stops. Once those are hit they become a rushing liquidity wave of willing
buyers at the market.

Willing buyers at the market at 3pm on a day like this where its consolidated, its going to want to
go back to the middle of the range.

So when you look at that type of event, its going to range bound trade between 9:30 open and
HOD (where we shorted)

IF YOU ARE LOOKING AT PRICE ACTION DAYS LIKE AND IF YOURE CAUGHT UP IN IT
AND DONT KNOW WHAT YOURE DOING/BEING CHOPPED UP, WAIT UNTIL 3PM.

Many times at 3-4pm the algorithm will do something where it goes outside the bounds
of the daily range like it did in the example above.
Episode 33: example of taking fvg not in “premium”
ES daily:
We made a run below that May 12 low

1h:
We see price bounce off the 1hr FVG and make a strong move down sweeping sellside.
15min:
ICT wanted the 3915 level to be broken before placing ANY TRADES. The reason why is bc
where it was previous to the break was just a bunch of consolidation. He didn't want to catch a
break below a short term low and then a run over REH. We wanna know that we know price
wants to go down.

Logic is that price will reach for that 3855 level only if we break below 3915 and then have a
FVG. We will then look for price to break the next sell side target and see if it gets another FVG
that will allow us to get in for price to deliver lower.

You could play the short down to sellside draw. Then long it off the sellside liquidity sweep.
Target for the long reversal would be the fvg in premium of this range (pointed at)

Usually we measure the displacement leg and wait for price to comeback into a premium before
shorting. We don't expect it to go to a premium here bc its going to be in a hurry to get down
below the 3855 lvl for the week.

5min:
 Price makes a small drop back into the FVG, AFTER 3PM. The market then starts sending it
into an algorithmic spool where all this price action starts running aggressively into the close

Now lets take a closer look at the shorts that could have been played on the 5min:

Heres a FVG. We have price rally into it a couple times then breaks lower
Heres another FVG which gets traded into then sells off

NOTICE THAT ITS OCCURING AT THE LEVELS (old lows where SSL would be resting)
THAT WE HAVE ON THE CHART. Were using the FVG after a run below.

In other words think of it like support broken, return back into FVG.
DONT THINK “go back to the old low broken and act as resistance”! Thats not how we
look at it!

If the FVG does not exist we don't trust that level as an old support broken turned
resistance

1min:
We measure the 1min displacement leg down and find that we have a FVG in equilibrium we
can base our entry off of. Price trades into a premium and thats where we ENTER!
Episode 34: Sundays Gaps

ES 15min:
We see price have a morning selloff which fills the Sunday gap and taps the top of a 15min
FVG. It then reverses and draws towards our BSL target 3938.5 which is also the gap.

5min:
We get PERFECT price delivery in this 5min FVG!
Same 5min chart with Sunday Gap marked more visibly:

We then tap the top of that 15min fvg and get some consolidation before lunch. We then see a
TYPICAL retracement during the lunch hour all the way back to the opening range.
It then breaks lower under a short term low and rebalances which also happens to be inside of
the old Sunday gap which acted as resistance.

It then trades lower down into an OB, then starts to accumulate, then rallies up back above the
gap opening from Sunday which then trades back down into it and rallies. It falls short of
reaching buyside and then retraces down into the gap which is also discount low.

Price then rallies and comes back into a 5min FVG which lines up with a 15min +OB. It rallies
away from it and comes all the up to our final target of 3952.75
The opening gap on Sunday, if we plot it across the entire week we will see that many
times there's a lot of valuation around that gap. It'll be treated as a dynamic
support/resistance.

If we have a swing high for example and we trade down from it, if its gonna trade down
into the sunday gap opening look for it to run above its high.
15min:
If we go back above this area (the gap) that probably means were going to go into a deeper run
on the daily.

1d:
We have a Daily -OB there and a high just below it.
We are looking for expansion swings to draw our fibs on to be able to long in a discount. We
DONT want to be drawing the fibs from the price leg down and look to short once it gets in
premium.

WE ARE LOOKING FOR IMPULSIVE PRICE SWINGS IN THE DIRECTION WE ARE TRYING
TO TRADE!
Episode 35: SMT example
ES daily:
Initial draw was the daily imbalance and bearish daily OB.

The low,open, and mean threshold of the OB are the sensitive areas you are watching for.

Mean threshold was taken.This bodes well for a continuation to take out this short term high

15min:
REH were left untouched and the low of the daily OB was right above (orange line)

5min:
Notice how the downwards price leg delivered in one single pass through.
Notice how the price leg that followed up came in 2 stages

Because it had two stages to that delivery we want to use the most recent one as our dealing
range. We run a FIB on that and wait for it to drop into discount

Market rallies from the FVG then drops down into a newly formed FVG at 8:30am then drops
back in and explodes up at 9:30am.

Heres an example of SMT. Remember to set setting to plot on the LOW.

NQ made a lower low while ES made a higher low.
NQ is taking liquidity out whereas ES is accumulating there

Usually they move in tandem but at certain times (8:30, 9:30, news events) they'll create this
divergence. If you have a bias it's helpful.

On the other hand, if you don't know where it's going, youre going to many times encounter
what would look like SMT divergence and then it disappears as they start moving in concert with
one another.

We are taught to know what price is reaching for. In this case bias has been bullish.
The NQ move is a stop out while in ES is the accumulation of longs is the telltale sign that its
going to the higher. Price here is being compressed getting ready to explode.

We are now watching to see if it can make its way up to mean threshold. The OB is on the 15
min.
1hr:
We've completely rebalanced this whole move down. We will most likely draw towards 1hr BSL.
Notice the middle of the chart. We formed a low, price rallied, and then came back into a FVG in
discount then rallies. This same pattern forms 2 more times after that!

We then consolidate, rally, then come back down into the smaller time frame FVG (highlighted)
where there is also SMT.

Framework and BIAS is what keeps us from shorting here

Why won't we short here and expect it to drop straight down through all the consolidation.
This is a High resistance liquidity run ( Its not as likely to occur/pan out).

We had so many supporting ideas here to be bullish. For example the down closed candles are
supporting price. Its just finding underlying order flow that's bullish so it's likely to go up just to
keep going higher. NOT GO UP TO GO DOWN.

We have A LOT of ranges we would have to break through and that requires a lot of intent, not
selling pressure. The INTENT is to send this higher on the daily chart.

Final words from episode:

Because it gave a nice run here here earlier before 7am, that means were probably going to
have a deep retracement and look for an ideal scenario like we outlined with the SMT
divergence.

SMT will usually occur around a 9:30am time period when there has already been a nice early
run before or at 7am.

If we get an early run like this, our first thought is, we need to go to SMT later on at 9:30 bc its
going to require some kind of a crack in correlation to setup the next leg if its going to have one.

Episode 36: 1hr down to 1 min example

1h:
Market drops down into a discount. Market is in an oversold condition

5min:
We get MSS, displacement, FVG, then move down into FVG. The FVG is in a discount of the
displacement range and we enter long there and aim for HOD (red line). We end up trading
higher than that going into FVG in a really deep premium

1min:
We consolidated in the premium then dropped down to take sellside.
Anyone who was lucky to long at the bottom and rides it to the top of this range gets stopped
out. The algorithm drops down and clears the board taking out the sell stops below here in order
to go higher. We are buying those sell stops.
1min:
This was a counter trend play (highlighted). We are expecting price to move back into a
premium prior to dropping further. We see a MSS and drop back into FVG. We didn't believe we
were going to take out the lows here because we should have done it at 8:30 news but it
couldn't do it so we view this as deep retracement which then rallies into a premium right before
9:30am.

Notice there is no model entry on the huge move down. That's the market tipping its hand to us.
Because there is no real setup and its a rush to get down here its clearing out SSL. It rallies a
but suckering in longs bottom picking. They get knocked out and now they are not able to go
long again (Retail won't usually reenter after taking a loss like that, they are afraid)

There are also some great 1min trades off the FVG you can simply scalp. Sell at FVG above
REH.
Episode 37: Top down example

ES Daily:
We came down and filled the daily fvg which also aligned with bullish breaker.

If price doesn't take out BSL over night and at 8:30 am were above the fvg high, we would
expect for price to attempt to get through that level. It doesn't have to go through it but the bias
is that it attempts to take it. Non farm payroll is occurring on that very day so you should NOT be
trading it anyways. It good to study though and watch price action.

ON NFP WEEKS STOP TRADING ON WEDNESDAY BY NY SESSION

Tip for daily bias:

When the market has moved from a low like this and starts to trade higher and creates a swing
low, its easy to assume that it might wanna come back to that most recent swing high.

Notice how each day up to it was bullish. We would be bullish bias until we take out that high.
Then we have a day or two of retracement which is logical because we create a FVG.
1h:

15min:
Notice P3 in effect here. We accumulated around midnight open. We saw manipulation down in
the morning session and then price rallied up.
5min:
Notice the fvg above. Our expectation was to draw up into it from here (where circle is) in the
PM session.

In other words, as we go into lunch and on the other side of lunch we could have easily traded
into the 5min fvg as an upside objective.
2min:
We were not given a model down where the 15min sell side was taken. This trade down below
was the only entry to have been able to play this move up. Its a continuation trade

There is still some time before lunch for price to potentially deliver to the 5min FVG above. Also
note how we already had a manipulation move down creating LOD and we are now above
midnight open price.

Notice the 2min +OB and FVG that is formed on the displacement up. Draw fib from that
displacement leg up which starts at the 2min OB. Price falls into a discount+FVG+OB which
triggers an entry. Sell at 5min FVG
Episode 38: Changing gears w Bias
Daily:
Going into the day we were expecting price to draw towards 4070 SSL. instead price has
bounced away from the daily FVG and is drawing towards previous HOD
1hr:
Going into the morning we were looking for a potential run into 4070. We did not get that

Notice what were seeing: Multiple lows are being taken as we inch towards 4070 and then
market reverses all while never presenting any high opportunity short setups. 4070 level never
got tagged.

PDH (4168.25) was not traded to. Also notice the bearish FVG to the left of it. We now have 2
premium arrays that may be a draw on liquidity

15min:
We see displacement and a short term shift in market structure relative to the 15min.
That is our area to watch and see if price supports a run.
If it digs into that FVG and starts to repel higher and we take out that short term high to the left,
that is enough to set up a stage for the afternoon trend/setup or price swing.

Why?
The market failed to get to an objective we were looking for. It was also respecting that daily
FVG and it rallied up. Price also displaces up and takes out that short term high to the left which
means we now have absolute market structure shift bullish.

We are now looking for entry in the FVG created by the MSS (highlighted in second pic)

5min:
Notice the imbalance pointed at and the REH/BSL just right of it. Bc of this we would look to
take partials prior to breaking BSL. This is bc this could easily be a stop run and price makes a
lower high after our entry. We are protecting ourselves in case this scenario unfolds.

If we've been in a bullish market structure and order flow is bullish (everythings going in one
direction and markets obviously going higher on all time frames) then thats an easy trading
scenario.
In this case were inside that little trading range area on the daily chart. Market is more difficult to
read

-Initially we wanted that 4070 level. We failed to go outside the shaded area (daily FVG)

-If we're bullish we want to be buying at/close to the opening price.

If you know the market is likely to go down to go up, then you can wait for price to give
you this setup right here:
● Price goes down
● You get a shift in market structure
● Come back down into a 15m FVG
● This is a day trade setup (not scalp)

We also got an SMT with ES and NQ where ES showed strength printing a higher low

Price then rallies once more of the 15min fvg

Once we see this happen we are good to go and are waiting for the afternoon setup.

If you are bullish, the market has ran higher in the morning then consolidates into the
lunch hour. After the lunch hour it'll drop down and sweep the sell stops or below some
short term low made in lunch.

Notice what happens here: Price creates a low ahead of the lunch hour at noon then drops
down into the FVG. This is doing what the rules said in terms of what liquidity is doing in the
afternoon post NY lunch.
What's the difference? It's not consolidating. Its retracing

Because it's a retracement going IN TO LUNCH, that signals that the algo will work through
lunch.

The algo drops into a discount then creates that short term low. It rallies a bit and leaves smooth
highs. Retail will see it as resistance. Price then drops one more time below that STL and
triggers sell stops.
Once price crosses over here (highlighted), we are immediately thinking it could potentially be
running PDH. We don't know it yet so we don't take an entry. We don't want to be premature
and stopped out

When price drops into here (highlighted), and then rallies from that then I KNOW its going for
that PDH. That's the narrative. We want to see something that makes sense logically.

This basically means:

Do we see displacement? OH YEAH WE DO
Is that an energetic price run? OH YEAH IT IS
We now get the measurement of that low to high to see premium/discount and seek to enter in
discount
What happens if price went here and rallied? Well we would have missed the move and thats ok

We are looking for sellside liquidity. We want to see a stop run bc what that's doing and how this
fits into narrative is:
If I'm thinking that this move (swing leg zoomed on) is setting up an afternoon run potentially to
PDH by close of day, we wanna be like smart money and buy sell stops.

ICT executions for study:

SMT
Notice on NQ there is a higher low. When were bullish plot the NQ comparison below as a
compare and contrast tool. In this case we pull it out bc price is in a discount, in a fvg, in OTE
and breaking STL

Classic Buy Day:

Open at midnight
Trade down creating LOD
Rally then creating a OTE or FVG or youre gonna buy the STL during SMT diversions

Theres real accumulation here between NQ and ES. This SMT divergence here is telling us that
NQ is failing to go lower so its under accumulation. What's happening with ES is just a stop hunt
below that short term low.
Episode 39: Diving into TIME

Daily and 1H:

We were interested in price drawing towards 4070 today and if we traded past that, into the
Daily FVG. We don't think its going to sweep 4070 to go up. We are expecting price to trade into
FVG.

We don't just assume every time we sweep REL we sweep those and just go the other way.
Narrative must be understood! Narrative is learned through EXPERIENCE!

On the 1h chart we have a swing low traded through with DISPLACEMENT and a FVG. Price
rallied up and traded into the FVG and bearish OB. We expect price to take 4076 low.

So we have a bearish bias and a clear draw on liquidity. Now look for P3! Notice the
accumulation and manipulation run up into a short term premium. The market then distributes
lower past sell side ultimately into daily FVG.

If we are short we take partials at 4070 and leave runners and submit to the daily range. That
means wait until 3-4pm. We will get the delivery of price into the daily FVG during that time

15 and 5 min:
5m:
During the London session price rallies and starts building in a premium ahead of the 8:30 time
window. The market creates the high and goes lower, taking short term SSL. Price then retraces
up into premium of displacement range down. It then consolidated for the majority of the
afternoon. Then it breaks lower and aggressively attacks the sell side below 4070 and then
going to 4040 level. We then consolidate and close inside the Daily FVG.
The rules for an afternoon session trade:
● Before you even consider trading the afternoon session, you must consider what the
daily range trying to do.
● Is it trying to expand higher or lower?
● Did it reverse in the morning session and is it going to have a counter trend move?
● Is it going to consolidate bc its waiting on a big news event the following day?

Today we had a big news event (employment data). The market consolidated and we had a
bearish bias. We were looking for 4070 to be broken then move into daily FVG. The framework
was one sided and it was not ambiguous.

If we are bearish the market will clear stops during the lunch hour. This is bc they dont want
participants to be profitable that may have assumed a short position from the morning
secession. At 1pm the algorithm reprices and runs to take the stops above BSL.

If you are aggressive you can place a trade on that stop raid bc we are in a directional move
and are trying to anticipate a large range day. Large range days can typically form with a
busy lunch schedule. If its going to be a fast market, during the lunch hour it can create a
significant high or low.

What is a breaker?
A breaker is a pattern where price runs out a pool of liquidity, then retraces and trades back
down below that short term low. If it trades back up to that and the narrative is BEARISH its
valid(YOU MUST KNOW WHAT THE MARKETS LIKELY TO BE REACHING FOR). If you
leave that part out its a gamble/guess.

We expect price to reject off this breaker and go lower. We don't expect to reverse once we take
the highlighted sellside. We wanna see it go through it and accelerate down towards 4070 SSL
since its the larger pool of liquidity. Then we wanna see it aggressively run un to the daily FVG
bc thats the imbalance that the algorithm is going to want to reprice to.

Notice how fast price accelerates down past 4070 without retracements or return back to old
lows broken.This is an algorithmic sell day. Retail doesnt get to do a lot of those retail concepts.

1min:
● What Time of day
 ● What Day of week
● What week of month
● What month of year
● What seasonal influences

These are several factors encoded in the algorithm that will seek these recurring phenomena
that can be capitalized on by those individuals that know their hunting.

READ THESE NOTES BELOW

We're looking for days where we can go in and engage price when there is a medium or
high impact news event
OR
if there is a lack of one, we can practice but we shouldn't be engaging with our normal
risk percentage.

What's the first element to algorithmic theory? TIME

8:30 am news embargo lifts
9:30 am NY open

Did the market rally above the opening midnight price AT 8:30? YES
Are we bearish? YES

Notice we take out short term high at 8:30am. The algorithm doesn't care how much
volume/orders is above that STH, it just has to take out a short term high.

Price is now at a premium and it took out BSL. What's it likely to do now bc its a bearish day and
were above the opening price and its at 8:30am? Reprice for sell side at 4100.

The algorithm goes from BSL at 8:30am on a bearish day above the opening price.
Wait for the market to trade lower which it does. Then watch for the break of the swing
low. We see price trades through it and creates a FVG. We take a short entry there
expecting to run to SSL. This is the 2022 model

ICT teaches his son to exit position once up 5pts when first trading live money. No matter how
far the target is, sell immediately at 5pts and just observe price deliver. He's looking for his 5pt
trade at 8:30 or 9:30am. If he doesnt get a win he can wait for the afternoon. If he wins, paper
trade afternoon. This teaches you to have confidence that you can make money from this
system and don't have to worry about it ever not working
The next area of opportunity is 9:30am. We should expect price to sweep BSL at 4105 and hit
that FVG above. We short there and sell at SSL which was LOD.

This setup eventually came back and came all the way back up to midnight open price. We are
now in a premium. Price consolidates and then breaks down

In short, what should have happened was we run BSL at 9:30am, creating the hod and then
break lower. Because price took out the OB, after taking multiple levels of SSL, what's the
algorithm gonna do? SEEK BUY SIDE
At 1:30 (lunch session starts) we leave an area of buy stops that have been taken, breaking
down then returning to a bearish breaker. We see displacement off it creating a FVG. That
could've been an entry right there.

We then see price trade below REL. What's resting below that? SSL on a BEARISH day.
Does it wanna drive down into the REL? IT DOES
Does it create an imbalance there? IT DOES
Does it trade back up into it? YES.Thats where we sell short and sell when we are up 5
points. We then watch and study to see if it goes to that 4070 level or that daily FVG
mentioned.

Doing this will deposit pseudo experience that over time evolves into real experience
ICTs son model
There's 3 opportunities a day (8:30,9:30,afternoon)
Looking for just one of them to just yield 5pts

Go take a look for yourself how many 5pt moves you can find at these specific times outlined in
this episode.
Episode 40: Key to daily bias

US/CAN Daily and Hourly:

We see price trade above BSL and create a swing high. The day after candle 3 we would
expect the market to trade lower.

Notice the highlighted circle. That rally happened prior to 8:30am open. That's MANIPULATION
that runs us up into a FVG running a STH/buyside.
15 and 5 min:
Take first partial at the FVG discount array. Final target the SLL.

4min:
We need price to get above equilibrium or higher to short

These are our possible entries. Top price is the SL.

In depth 4 min chart:

KEYS TO DAILY BIAS:

We're not trying to get a daily bias every day. We are trying to determine the DIRECTION of the
weekly expansion:
-Does it want to run to an old low?
-Does it look like its gonna run to an old high?
-Is it running to an imbalance below or above the market price?
-Is it likely not to move because there is no data for it that week ?

Think of WHO IS IN the crosshairs?

Have people been making money going long? Is there a low they're gonna try to run down and
stop them out with it? That will be enough for us to frame an expansion going lower.

Where are the high or medium impact news events for the market that you trade?
What day of the week and what time?

Lets say for example we are expecting the weekly range to expand lower, on the news
events we wanna hopefully see something that runs us higher into a FVG or run above
stops, then break down showing displacement then creating a FVG to SHORT!. We are
looking for these setup intraday in our kill zones at the time the economic calendar says
the news drops.
To sum it up SIMPLY:
We are looking for the higher time frame weekly to expand in a specific direction: THIS STARTS
OUR BIAS

Then…

If I think it's going higher/lower for a specific target or imbalance, then we will go to the
economic calendar to look for when that might occur.

1hr:
The movement being pointed at is whipsawing both sides of the market place taking out SSL
and BSL. Whenever we see price action like this we ignore both large wicks. The real range is
the swing that follows
So now that we have determined our swing range, if price is going to go higher its gonna want
to go into a premium.
Why don't we consider this FVG a premium?
Its overlapping with that equilibrium level. We wanna see it dig into a premium.

Therefore we highlight this FVG as our expected spot (low hanging fruit approach)

15min:
London creates the higher low most of the times (if you're directional bias is correct)

We then rally and see a short term shift in market structure which is bullish

5min:
Price rallies away from the OB then back down into the last down closed candle on the 5min
chart.

We have the market starting with a run from a low to a lower low. Whats took place there?

The market then comes back down into a short term discount, rallies, and at 9:30 consolidates
then starts to run.

3min:
We can buy this FVG (highlighted) and trust it wont take previous low out. Why?
Because we already had a stop run event (labeled below).

Market drops into a discount prior to that run up in the NY session.

It already made a move of manipulation with the stop raid earlier, we then retrace into discount,
then off to the races.

We are trading into an hourly discount and hit OB (blue line). Then it creates a short term
discount relative to the swing it just formed. The market then rallies and comes back into a
OB+FVG entry in discount and rallies. It consolidates at 9:30. PRICE IS NOT LIKELY TO
COME BACK AND TAKE THAT LOW OUT (BLUE CIRCLE).

This is because its already closed in the only FVG thats here. Price has rebalanced it and
theres no reason to go down.

If were likely to see lower prices on Dollar Cad, were likely to see lower dollar and higher
foreign currency. When the dollar goes down its easy for ES to go higher.

Risk on: Foreign currencies, index futures, stocks go higher: Dollar goes down
Risk off: Dollar higher and everything else going down.

If you go into the day with the idea of risk off risk on, it makes it a lot easier to look for
supporting ideas with intermarket relationships.
Episode 41: Final episode/risk management

ES 1h:

ES 15m:
 We had the Powell event at 10am. The market runs up and takes intraday BSL but we were
looking for BSL on the hourly chart above to be swept.

We dont reach our 1h level but we draw back down and fill in a 15m FVG.

Notice how there is a smaller FVG right above the one marked.
Why dont we use that one? The reason is that since the bottom of that first FVG is also the top
of the bigger one, its likely to go over it and stab into the bigger one.

Its doing this as we go into NY lunch until 1:00 where it makes the low of the session after
closing in the FVG. Then from 1:30-4pm (Afternoon session) the market creates a willingness to
want to go higher, drawing all the way up to our 1hr target we looked for in the morning!

Initially in the morning we were looking to go above that 1h BSL then sell off and go back down
into the FVG area in discount and then go beyond 3805. We didnt get that so we wait

We prefer to see some type of stop run in the lunch hour. We got tha and price runs into a FVG
in deep discount between swing low to high.

ES 5 min:
ICT recommends to wait until 1:30 to begin trading as there is cleaner price action

Take your attention to the highlighted circle. The market starts to rally away and draws back into
a +OB AND FVG. We then have a 5min MSS which leads to a small return to the new FVG.

2min morning session:

Since we never saw strong displacement beneath the pivot being highlighted, we couldn't short
in that 2m FVG. If we did we would absolutely short it and ride it down to the LOD pivot. If we
didnt get there by 12pm we would just close positon.

2min afternoon session:

We see a short term shift in market structure at a key time of day (1:30pm). Price trades back
down into an OB with FVG(not marked) in OTE. THIS IS IS THE GOLD STANDARD OF
PATTERNS.
This is all happening within the 15m FVG.

5min:

5min w entry annotations:

We trade into the 15min FVG. Does is show willingness to go higher? YES
Is there a short term shift in market structure? YES
Is there a FVG? YES
Down closed candle to the left of it? YES
Price then drops down into bullish OB in OTE where we should have a limit order at 3754.75 (a
tick below fvg). Our stop is about 9 pts away. Our TP is above that pivot marked in premium of
our swing range down, about 25.5 pts. Thats about 2.5 RR.

What do you do if you get stopped out here? On the next trade use 0.5%. Before you can go
back you have to make 50% of what you originally lost. For example you get stopped
here and take a -$100 loss. You must now make 50$ back using 0.5% risk before going
back to full 1% risk.

What happens though if you also get stopped on the 0.5% trade? You now use 0.25% risk.

Stop management:
From SL to entry, split that range in terms of pts. For example if this went up 12.5
pts(half of 25), then your SL can be trimmed by 25% of that range.

Now that you have your stop set just watch and analyze price delivery:
-Do down closed candles keep supporting price?
-Does it run below STL then run higher with a lot of energy?
-Is it dropping down into a FVG and reaccumulating and sending another price leg higher?

As long as price is doing those things collectively or individually you are on the right side of the
market and you should keep holding for your position to hit target.