Research Report

(Predicting the outcome of NPP’s special electoral college election)

Jointly published by

Centre for Sustainable African

Development Initiatives (C-SADI), UK
(https://c-sadi.org/)
&
The Outcomes International, Ghana
(https://outcomes-intl.com/) 1
 Executive Summary
Research Questions Methodology Key Findings

• Who are the top 5 Using the quantitative • The top 5 candidates to be elected
research design, data include H.E. Dr. Mahamudu
candidates to be elected was obtained mainly
Bawumia (72.6%), Hon. Alan
by the delegates of through computer-
Kyeremanten (7.7%), Hon.
assisted telephone
NPP’s special electoral interviewing (CATI) Kennedy Agyapong (4.3%), Hon.
college? technology. Kwabena Agyapong (1.8%), and
Hon. Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto
• On what basis do The minimum sample (0.6%). 13% are still undecided.
size was determined to
delegates assess a be 278 delegates based • The main bases for assessing
candidate for the NPP on 95% confidence level candidates by delegates are the
and 5% margin of error.
flagbearer position? However, 300 delegates
vision of the candidate for the party
were interviewed in order and country, and the competence
• What are the views of to increase precision. of the candidate.
the delegates of NPP’s The study used • Delegates of the special electoral
special electoral college multistage probability college believe the party stands a
on the party’s agenda of proportional to size good chance of breaking the 8 if
sampling (PPS) with
breaking the 8? they stay united after the primaries.
implicit stratification. 2
Research questions

 Who are the top 5 candidates to be elected

by the delegates of NPP’s special electoral
college?

 On what basis do delegates assess a

candidate for the NPP flagbearer position?

 What are the views of the delegates of NPP’s

special electoral college on the party’s
agenda of breaking the 8?
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 Methodology

 The quantitative research design was adopted for this study

 The target population consists of all NPP delegates of the special
electoral college, which is estimated to be about 1,000 people
 The study used multistage probability proportional to size sampling
(PPS) with implicit stratification to reduce the operational cost of
the survey and better represent the country
 Data was obtained mainly through computer-assisted telephone
interviewing (CATI) technology
 The minimum sample size was determined to be 278 special
delegates based on a 95% confidence level and 5% margin of
error
 In our effort to increase precision, we enlarged the actual sample
size to 300 delegates and successfully interviewed all 300
delegates, yielding a response rate of 100%
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 Zonal and regional breakdown of the sample
Zones Regions Number selected Number selected Percentage
from every region from every zone
Northern Zone Upper West 11 79 26.33%
Upper East 17
North East 15
Northern 19
Savannah 17
Middle Belt Bono East 19 109 36.33%
Bono 14
Ahafo 11
Ashanti 36
Eastern 29
Coastal Belt Greater Accra 29 112 37.33%
Central 19
Western 19
Western North 15
Oti 11
Volta 19
Total 300 300 100.0%
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 Categories of respondents

Categories of respondents Number interviewed Percentage

Constituency Chairman 143 47.7%

Regional Executive Member 103 34.3%

Member of Parliament 33 11.0%

Council of Elders Member 9 3.0%

National Council Member 8 2.7%

Card Bearing Minister 3 1.0%

Past National Officer 1 0.3%

6
Have you decided which candidate you are going to vote for in
your party’s Special Electoral College Elections?

13%
Yes, I have
87% 13%
No, I have not

7
 If the Special Electoral College Elections were held today, whom
will you vote for as the presidential candidate of your party?

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%
72.6%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%
11.7%
7.7%
4.3% 1.8%
0.0% .6% 1.3%
H.E. Dr. Hon. Alan Hon. Kennedy Hon. Kwabena Hon. Dr. Owusu Other Undecided
Mahamudu Kwadwo Ohene Agyapong Agyei Agyapong Akoto Afriyie
Bawumia Kyeremanten

8
 How likely is it that you may change your choice of candidate?

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

51.7%

20.0%

10.0% 21.3% 20.7%

4.3% 2.0%
0.0%
Extremely likely Likely Neutral Not likely Not at all likely

9
Do you believe in the ability of your chosen candidate to
unite the party after the flagbearership elections?

3%
12% Yes, I do
12% No, I do not
85%
Not sure

10
 On what basis do you assess a candidate for your party's
Presidential candidate position? (Multiple Response)

The vision of the candidate for the party 80.3%

The vision of the candidate for the country 79.0%

How competent the candidate is perceived to be 76.0%

Personal qualities of the candidate (e.g. credibility, trustworthiness,… 58.3%

Contribution of the candidate to the party 36.3%

Loyalty of the candidate to the party 28.3%

The candidate’s endorsements or support from community leaders 14.7%

How generous the candidate is perceived to be 10.3%

How rich the candidate is perceived to be 6.0%

The ability of the candidate to attract floating voters and win the… 5.7%

The ethnic background of the candidate 5.3%

Material (non-cash) support from the candidate 4.7%

The level of education of the candidate 3.3%

The religious affiliation of the candidate 2.7%

Monetary (cash) support from the candidate 2.0%

The family background of the candidate 1.3%

Other 21.0%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%

11
Do you think NPP can win the 2024 presidential elections?

5% Yes
95% 5%
Maybe

12
 In your opinion, what could make the NPP retain
power in 2024?

Performance of government 87.0%

Party unity 74.7%

Choice of candidate 57.3%

Effeciveness, effieciency and strategy of the party machinery 34.7%

Government/party communication strategy 26.3%

Acceptance by floating voters 21.3%

Manifesto promises 8.3%

Other 5.3%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
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Further Details
(Predicting the outcome of NPP’s special electoral college election)

Further details can be obtained from

the following websites:

(https://c-sadi.org/)
&
(https://outcomes-intl.com/)
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