A Spatio-Temporal, Multi-Peril Assessment

of Wheat Rust Losses Worldwide

Introduction
• Wheat provides about one-fifth of the total calories consumed worldwide
• Rust diseases are among the most destructive wheat diseases
• Stem rust / Stripe rust / Leaf rust
• Plant disease varies spatially and temporally
• Susceptible host + Virulent pathogen + Favorable environment

Stem Rust Stripe Rust Leaf Rust

(Source: Evans Lagudah and Zakkie (Source: UGA extension) Source: USDA‐ARS Cereal rust image
Pretorius) gallery
What do we Know About Wheat Rust Losses?

“The wheat rusts, historically, have been diseases of great

importance. The losses caused by…the three wheat rusts
worldwide over the centuries have been substantial….

Unfortunately, in many instances, recording and quantification of

the rust diseases and the losses attributed to them have not
been adequate. All too often, references to their occurrence
appear in obscure publications and only when an epidemic is
unusually severe."

Roelfs, Singh and Saari (Rust Diseases of Wheat, CIMMYT 1992)

Wheat Rust Bio-Economic Evidence
Stem Rust
(Pardey et al. Science. 2013)

Stripe Rust
(Beddow et al. Nature Plants. 2015)
Leaf Rust
(Working paper 2019)
Evaluation of the economic impact of multiple
pest species
• Complex interactions among pathogens, hosts and weather
conditions
• The presence and severity of infection from each of the three rust
species varies substantially under different environmental regimes
• Multiple rust diseases may develop at different times and exhibit
different severity levels
• Objective:
• Investigate the overlapping spatial pattern and relative
importance among all three wheat rust diseases worldwide
• Develops and deploys a new, probabilistic approach to an integrated
assessment of yield losses attributable to a “three-rust complex”
• Discusses the implications of these results with respect to R&D
investments in stem, stripe and leaf wheat rust control
Characterizing the Spatial
Variability of Losses
1S 2Y 3L

• The CLIMEX models are employed to

identify potential geographic
distribution of wheat rust diseases Disjoint
• Physiological parameters of species
• Climate data
• At each geographical location (a ten arc
4 SYL
minute, geo-referenced grid cell or
pixel), the CLIMEX model generates
two important indexes
• Eco-climatic Index (EI)
Concordant
• Pest persistence
• Annual Growth Index (GIA) 1S 5 SY 2 Y
• Seasonal suitability
4 SYL
7 LS 6 YL

3L
Overlapping
 Three Rusts—Seasonally Vulnerable
Stem Rust
Stripe Rust

One rust type

Two rust types
Three rust types

Three Rusts—Persistently Vulnerable

Leaf Rust

Persistently vulnerable
CLIMEX model Seasonally vulnerable
 Vulnerability to wheat rust diseases for
global wheat production
Stem, Leaf and Stripe Rust Vulnerability
None Only One Only Two All Three
(Percentage of output, all farms)
Australia 11.93 4.15 15.22 68.70
China 0.05 0.11 2.25 97.60
India 5.47 5.68 24.89 63.96
North America 10.51 10.02 15.91 63.56
Sub-Saharan 11.15 1.61 1.86 85.38
Africa
Western 0.15 0.00 0.00 99.84
Europe
World 5.92 2.72 7.01 84.34
Spatio-temporal variability of losses caused
by wheat rust diseases in the US
Characterizing the Temporal Variability of Losses, 1918-2014
21.4%
25
Leaf Rust
Stripe Rust
20
Stem Rust

15
Percent Loss

10 0.45%
5

0
1918

1924

1930

1936

1942

1948

1954

1960

1966

1972

1978

1984

1990

1996

2002

2008

2014
Characterizing the Temporal Variability of Losses
Fitted Beta Distribution
Scenario 1 Stem rust: High
Stripe rust: Low
Pre-1960
Leaf rust: High

Scenario 2 Stem rust: Low

Stripe rust: High
Post-1960 Leaf rust: High

Scenario 3 Stem rust: High

Stripe rust: High
Worst-case
Leaf rust: High
Probabilistic global wheat rust loss estimation
method

Wheat Multiple Rust Global Wheat

Global Suitability Production Allocation
Model Model
(CLIMEX model) (SPAM model)

Modeled Wheat Rust Global Data on Wheat Production

Susceptible Area and Area, 1961-2050

Crop Loss Distribution

(Estimated based on
USDA-CDL data)

Global Crop Loss by Wheat Leaf

Rust, 1961-2050
(Monte Carlo Simulation)
Simulation within each epidemiological zone

• A total of 15 epidemiological zones

• Calculate counter-factual rust-free yield in each zone/year:
𝑎𝑎
𝑝𝑝 𝑌𝑌𝑧𝑧,𝑡𝑡
𝑌𝑌𝑧𝑧,𝑡𝑡 =
1 − 𝑙𝑙𝑧𝑧,𝑡𝑡

• Calculate losses as a result of rust diseases in each zone/year:

𝑝𝑝 𝑎𝑎
𝐿𝐿𝑅𝑅𝑧𝑧,𝑡𝑡 = 𝑌𝑌𝑧𝑧,𝑡𝑡 − 𝑌𝑌𝑧𝑧,𝑡𝑡 𝐴𝐴𝑧𝑧,𝑡𝑡

• Aggregate across zones:

15
𝐿𝐿𝑅𝑅𝑡𝑡 = � 𝐿𝐿𝑅𝑅𝑧𝑧,𝑡𝑡
𝑧𝑧=1
Annual global wheat losses attributed to wheat
rust diseases for three alternative loss scenarios
30
26.41
Million tonnes

25
21.74
20 12.48

15.02
15 12.39
1.31

4.76 4.84
10
0.31

5 9.04 8.95 9.09

0
Pre-1960 Post-1960 Worst-case
Leaf Rust Stripe Rust Stem Rust
 Economically justified R&D investment in
wheat rust disease control
𝑉𝑉 𝑖𝑖 𝑟𝑟 , 𝑖𝑖 𝑐𝑐 , 𝑖𝑖 𝑚𝑚
60 ∑2050 𝑅𝑅
𝑡𝑡=2000 𝑝𝑝𝑡𝑡 𝐿𝐿𝑡𝑡 1 + 𝑖𝑖
𝑟𝑟 2050−𝑡𝑡
𝑚𝑚
= max 𝑣𝑣: Pr 2050 − 1 ≥ 𝑖𝑖 > 0.95
∑𝑡𝑡=1990 𝑣𝑣 1 + 𝑖𝑖 𝑐𝑐 1990−𝑡𝑡

V: sustained investment that has a 95% chance of exceeding a 10% modified internal
rate of return (MIRR) per year

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Annual R&D Pre-1960 Post-1960 Worst-case
investment Value* Share Value* Share Value* Share
US$ million percent US$ million percent US$ million percent

Stem Rust 69.56 56.99 7.45 8.71 70.73 47.24

Stripe Rust 1.76 1.44 27.12 31.72 27.45 18.33
Leaf Rust 50.74 41.57 50.94 59.57 51.55 34.43

Total 122.05 100.00 85.51 100.00 149.73 100.00

*2016 wheat prices

Discussion

• Wheat farmers face an ongoing battle with the changing rust

pathogen populations, where new virulence constantly emerges to
overcome existing resistance in the wheat cultivars
• It is important to understand the spatio-temporal variability of all
three rust species and develop wheat cultivars that are equipped
with effective resistance against all three rusts species.
• Our integrated three-rust assessment standardizes the analysis
around a no-disease counterfactual yield for certain defined periods
of time
• In addition, this study takes into account the relative spatial
prevalence of three rust diseases within each epidemiological zone to
estimate both the combined losses and the individual loss
consequences of each rust disease.
Take Home Messages
 Almost all of the world’s wheat crop is susceptible to infection from wheat rusts
• Globally only 5.92 percent of the wheat production not susceptible to infection
• 84.34 percent of the crop production is vulnerable to all three rusts
 Losses at any particular location or point in time are NOT representative of the average
annual global losses worldwide over the longer term
 Using a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach applied to 15 epidemiological zones with
variable vulnerability to the rusts we find that:
• Global losses from all three rusts average at least 21.74, 15.02, and 26.41 million tons
per year under the pre-1960, post-1960, and worst-case scenarios, respectively. This is
equivalent to an annual average loss of around US$3.91, 2.79, and 4.75 billion (2016
prices) per year.
• The economically justifiable investment in wheat rust R&D is conservatively estimated
to be $122.05, 85.51, and 149.73 million per year (effectively in perpetuity) under the
pre-1960, post-1960, and worst-case scenarios.
o This is equivalent to an annual investment of $0.57, 0.40, and 0.71 per hectare per
year (across the world’s 212.38 million wheat hectares)