Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Nathaniel Hendren
Harvard
Spring, 2023
Last Class
WTP
MVPF =
Cost
I The poor are willing to pay $0.5 to prevent the policy from
going into place
Earnings (y)
(c)
y-T(y)
Consumption
y* Earnings (y)
(c)
y-T(y)
Consumption
y* Earnings (y)
(c)
y-T(y)
η
Consumption
y* Earnings (y)
Marginal welfare impact per η:
=$1 per mechanical beneficiary
(c)
y-T(y)
η
Consumption
y* Earnings (y)
Mechanical cost per η:
=F(y*+ε/2)-F(y*-ε/2)
(c) =$1 per mechanical beneficiary
y-T(y)
η
Consumption
y* Earnings (y)
Behavioral responses affect tax revenue
But don’t affect utility (Envelope Theorem)
(c)
y-T(y)
η
Consumption
y* Earnings (y)
Total cost per η per beneficiary:
=1+FE(y*), FE = “fiscal externality”
(c)
y-T(y)
η
Consumption
y* Earnings (y)
Weights
I Consider the function:
g̃ (y ) = 1 + FE (y )
ŷ (θ; y ∗ , e, η ) = argmax u y − T̂ (y ; y ∗ , e, η ) , y ; θ
∂q̂ (y , e, η )
1 + FE (y ) = lim
e →0 ∂η
I Note the MVPF of a tax cut to those earning near y is...?
Key Assumptions
I Others?
Two Types of Policies
I Exercise: Show
R
s (y ) (1 + FE (y )) = 0
Werning 2007: Pareto efficient taxation
(s)
Example: Alternative environment benefits the poor and harms the rich
Surplus
s(y)
Earnings (y)
EV and CV
Earnings (y)
“EV” Example
s(y) y-T(y)
=
Consumption
y-T(y)+s(y)
Earnings (y)
“EV” Example
s(y) y-T(y)
=
Consumption
y-T(y)+s(y)
Is T budget feasible?
Earnings (y)
“EV” Example
(c)
y-T(y)
s(y) y-T(y)
Consumption
Is T budget feasible?
Case 1: YES
Earnings (y)
“EV” Example
(c)
y-T(y)
s(y) y-T(y)
Consumption
Is T budget feasible?
Case 2: NO
Earnings (y)
“EV” Example
(c)
y-T(y)
s(y) y-T(y)
S> 0
Consumption
Earnings (y)
EV and CV
(c)
y-Ta(y)
Consumption
Earnings (y)
“CV” Example
y-Ta(y)
(c)
y-Ta(y)
-s(y)
Consumption
Earnings (y)
“CV” Example
y-Ta(y)
S> 0
(c)
y-Ta(y)
-s(y)
Consumption
Earnings (y)
“CV” Example
y-Ta(y)
(c)
S< 0 y-Ta(y)
-s(y)
Consumption
Earnings (y)
“CV” Example
y-Ta(y)
(c) S> 0
y-Ta(y)
-s(y)
Consumption
Define: S=E[s(y)g(y)]
How much better off is everyone in the modified alternative
environment relative to the status quo?
Earnings (y)
Pareto Comparisons
∂q̂ (y , e, η )
1 + FE (y ) = lim
e →0 ∂η
I Let
T (y ) − T (0) τ (y ∗ ) τ (y ∗ )
FE (y ∗ ) = − eP (y ∗ ) − ζ (y ∗ ) T (y ∗ )
− ec (y ∗ ) α (y ∗ )
y − T (y ) 1 − ∗
1 − τ (y ∗ )
| {z } y | {z }
| {z }
Participation Effect Substitution Effect
Income Effect
yf 0 (y )
where α (y ) = − 1 + f (y ) is the local Pareto parameter of the
income distribution
I Heterogeneity in FE (y ) depends on:
1. Shape of income distribution, α (y )
2. Shape and size of behavioral elasticities
3. Shape of tax rates
I See derivation in Bourguignon and Spadaro (2012), Zoutman
(2013a, 2013b), and Hendren (2020)
Estimation Approach in US (Hendren, 2020)
3
2 Average Alpha by Income Quantile
Alpha
1
0
-1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Ordinary Income Quantile
Shape of 1+FE(y)
1.2
[1+FE(y)] / E[1+FE(y)]
.8 .6 1
S ID = 0.77S P + S C
I “Consumer surplus standard” requires top tax rate near Laffer
curve
I France should have tighter merger regulations?
I Key assumption: policy is budget neutral (inclusive of fiscal
externalities)
Example: Economic Growth
Targeted Non-Budget Neutral Policies
2
1.5
JTPA to Adults
MVPF
dW
lim | η =0 = E [ ν ( θ ) | y ( θ ) = y ∗ ]
e →0 dη
E [ν (θ ) |y (θ ) = y ∗ ] = 1 + FE (y ∗ ) ∀y ∗
E [ ν ( θ ) |y ( θ ) = y ] = ν (y )
τ (y )
α (y ) e (y ) = 1 − G (y )
1 − τ (y )
where Z ∞
1
G (y ) = g (ỹ ) f (ỹ ) d ỹ
1 − F (y ) y
FE (y ) < −1
τ j (y )
α (y ) e (y ) = 1 − G j (y )
1 − τ j (y )
I Potential concerns:
I Dynamics of policy responses
I Changes in income distribution
I Changes in taxable income elasticity
I General issue with “sufficient statistics”?
Summary
S = E [min {s (θ ) |y (θ ) = y } g (y )] > 0