Spatial and temporal groupings of water main pipe breakage in Winnipeg

I. C. GOULTER
A N D A. KAZEMI
Department of Civil Engineering, Universify of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.. Canada R3T 2N2
Received June 6 , 1986
Revised manuscript accepted July 22, 1987

The spatial and temporal patterns of water distribution pipe failure in the City of Winnipeg are examined. The failures are
shown to be strongly clustered in space, where 22% of the total failures examined occur within 1 m of another failure and 46%
occur within 20 m of another failure. A strong temporal clustering is also apparent, with 42% of all failures that occur within 1 m
of another found also to occur within 1 day of the initial failure in the group. An exponential decrease in the marginal rates of
failure with respect to both the temporal and spatial interval parameter is also observed. Earlier failures in a particular location
appear to be an important key to assessing potential failures in that vicinity. These results suggest that a fruitful area for further
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examination for the reduction of failure rates is the change in the ground conditions resulting from an initial leak and its
subsequent repair.
Key words: failures, groupings, marginal rates, pipes, space, time, water distribution. Winnipeg.

Les rkpartitions spatiale et temporelle des ruptures des tuyaux du rCseau de distribution d'eau de la ville de Winnipeg sont
examinCes. On constate que ces ruptures sont regroupkes, tant dans le temps que dans I'espace : 22% du nombre total des
ruptures examinCes sont sCparCes d'une autre par un espace infkrieur a 1 m et 46% par un espace infirieur a 20 m. De la meme
f a ~ o n42%
, des ruptures qui surviennent a moins de 1 m d'une autre surviennent dans l'intervalle d'une journCe suivant la rupture
initiale. On observe Cgalement une diminution exponentielle des taux marginaux de rupture, si I'on tient compte du paramktre de
l'intervalle spatial et ternporel. L'examen des ruptures antkrieures survenues un endroit particulier sernble &treun ClCrnent clC
pour Cvaluer les risques de rupture dans une m&merCgion. Ces rCsultats semblent indiquer que des recherches visant a rCduire les
taux de rupture devraient s'attarder aux variations des conditions du sol causCes par une fuite et la rkparation subskquent de celle-ci.
Mots c l b : ruptures, groupages, taux marginaux, tuyaux, espace, temps, distribution d'eau, Winnipeg.
[Traduit par la revue]
Can. J. Civ. Eng. 15, 91-97 (1988)
For personal use only.

1. Introduction
Recent publicity about urban infrastructure deterioration and
the resulting costs of maintenance and replacement has genera-
ted increased interest in the problem of water main breakage.
There has been considerable research activity in the area of
water main breakage, and analysis can be loosely categorized
into the following major subareas:
(1) Analysis of historical records of pipe breakage in existing
distribution systems;
(2) Prediction of future breakage conditions in existing or
new distribution systems;
(3) Identification of condition? contributing to the occurrence
of pipe breakage;
(4) Investigation of means of reducing breakage rates in both
existing and new systems;
(5) Incorporation of known or estimated rates of breakage
into methods for determining replacement or repair criteria for
existing systems;
(6) Integration of rates of pipe breakage into methods for the
assessment and improvement of reliability in water distribution
networks.
Although each of these subareas is related to a slightly
Walski and Pellicia (1981) and Walski (1982, 1985). The study
described in this paper is not addressed to these cost issues, but
is concerned with the problems associated with predicting pipe
failure rates and identifying the causes of those failures. The
approach taken is to first examine the spatial and temporal
patterns of pipe breakage in the City of Winnipeg. Factors that
may contribute to pipe breakage, and that can be identified from
the observed pattern, are briefly discussed and then related to
conditions reported in other studies.
2. Review of literature
While there hs been an interest in water distribution pipe
failures in recent years, the pipe breakage question has been an
issue of concern for municipal engineers for quite some time. A
series of studies in 1960 investigated pipe failure causes in a
number of cities in the United States, and suggested some
preventative measures to improve performance (Arnold 1960;
Clark 1960; Remus 1960; Niemeyer 1960). Morris (1967) and
Fitzgerald (1968) also examined pipe failure conditions in cities
in the United States, and made spkcific recommendations that
accurate and detailed leak and failure records should be
maintained to develop and (or) maintain effective programs for
- ~

different aspect of the pipe breakage problem, all are dependent
upon a knowledge of past breakage performance of existing
systems. Shamir and Howard (1979) claimed that analysis of
historical break data can assist in identifying the primary causes
for breaks within a distribution network. Once these primary
causes have been isolated, changes in pipeline design, such as
pipe material, joint design, construction, and repair-mainten-
ance procedures, can be initiated to improve the situation. Much
of the work on cost issues associated with water distribution
repair, rehabilitation, and replacement has been performed by
NOTE:Written discussion of this paper 1s welcomed and will be
received by the Editor until May 31, 1988 (address inside front cover).
break reduction.
One of the factors that a detailed examination of pipe failure
might be expected to reveal is that the rate of failure increases
with age of the pipe. A series of studies has identified this
situation, and developed relationships that show an increase in
failure rate with age of pipe (Shamir and Howard 1979; Clark et
al. 1982: Chambers 1983: Kettler and Goulter 1985).
However, a series of investigations into pipe breakage in New
York and Philadelphia concluded that age is not as great a factor
in pipe breakage as might be expected (O'Day et al. 1980;
O'Day 1982, 1983; Ciottoni 1983). These studies concluded
that higher rates of failure are experienced in the smaller
diameter pipes. This conclusion was supported by the results of
 92 CAN. J. CIV. ENG. VOL. 15, 1988
a number of other studies (e.g., Morris 1967; Fitzgerald 1968;
Sullivan 1982; Brcic 1983). Furthermore, Clark et al. (1982)
and Kettler and Goulter (1985) found a strong relationship
between failure rate and both age of pipe and pipe size
(diameter).
The fact that age is not as dominant a factor as might be
anticipated suggests that factors other than age, such as dia-
meter, pipe material, corrosiveness of the soil, etc., should be
investigated. Examination of the historical and spatial patterns
of failure will help to identify those locations or conditions that
appear most susceptible to failure. Once these conditions have
been identified, the physical characteristics that may be contrib-
uting to the failures are more likely to be identified. These
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physical parameters can then be examined in more detail,
leading hopefully to a means of reducing the failure rate in the
future.
3. Data base and methodology
The data base used in this study is the pipe failure record of
the City of Winnipeg, which consists of 20 213 leaks occurring
between 1975 and 1985. As leaks for earlier periods are not
presently stored in a computer data base of the City of
Winnipeg, they are not amenable to examination using the
algorithms described in this paper. However, while such
failures were not considered directly, their implications for the
results for the period 1975-1985 are recognized.
The term "failure" in this study is taken to correspond to a
leak entry within the computer data base, and constitutes a
For personal use only.
repair event. The leaks themselves can be categorized into three
distinct types as follows:
L = leaks: those failures or leaks considered to be distinct
separate leaks in the failure record.
R = releaks: those failures or leaks considered to be
reoccurrences of previous leaks that have occurred at the same
location during and prior to the period of analysis, i.e., before
1975.
RP = repeated releaks: these are leaks that are reoccurrences
in the record of failures previously designated as releaks during
the period of analysis.
The objective of the study was to identify spatial and temporal
groupings in the leak data. To identify the groupings or patterns,
the leak record was scanned for two different conditions.
Case I : spatial groupings
The criterion used to identify the existence of a spatial group
is based on a distance measure, d,, e.g., 1, 2, 5, 10 m. Within
the data set the leaks are arranged by street name. The precise
locations of individual breaks are defined by spatial X-Y
coordinates in the failure records. A search algorithm developed
for the study uses these spatial coordinates to determine the
distances between failures. A spatial group is taken to be present
when one or more failures occur within a specified distance, d,,
of another failure. The search begins by examining the first leak
in the record. A check is performed to determine whether any
breaks occur within d, of that particular failure. If there is no
failure within the distance d,, the algorithm moves to the next
failure in the record and performs the same check.
If, however, a failure is found within the distance d,, a spatial
group is taken to exist. The algorithm then moves to the location
of that failure, and looks for another failure within d, of the
"new" base position. If there are no failures within d, of the new
position, then the group or spatial cluster is taken to be complete
and the algorithm moves to the next failure and begins to check
for a new cluster as described above. If, however, another
LEGEND : 0 Location of pipe failure
FIG. 1. Schematic of the spatial search for failures: (a) one group of
7 failures; (6) one group of 3 failures (group 1) and one group of 4
failures (group 2).
failure is found within d, of the new location, it is taken as part
of the same group of the current base location, and the search
procedure is repeated. A schematic of the spatial search is
shown in Fig. 1.
The failure records are scanned for groups associated with
various values of d,. The search is also capable of identifying
clusters of failures at exactly the same location, i.e., d , = 0. It
should be noted that clusters of failures associated with d, = 0
are essentially clusters of repeated releaks.
The search technique also identifies how many failures are in
each particular spatial grouping, and the number of groups with
2 failures, 3 failures, 4 failures, etc.
Case 2: spatial and temporal groupings
Two criteria were applied simultaneously in identifying
patterns for this case. The first criterion is the spatial grouping
procedure described in case 1. Each leak found to lie within d, of
another leak is also screened to see if it occurred within a time
interval, t,, of that other leak. The result of the application of the
two criteria is the identifation of how the pipe failures are
clustered in both mace and time. The Darameter t, was varied in
a similar fashion 70 d , to see how t'he size of each "cluster"
changes with change in the value of t,.
4. Application of methodology
The results of screening the failure records according to case
1 are shown in Table 1. One of the primary objects associated
with spatial screening of the failure records as shown in this
table is to attempt to identify the extent to which previous
failures may be indicative of future failures in the immediate
vicinity of the original leak. Two earlier studies by Shamir and
Howard (1979) and Clark et al. (1982) investigated the issue of
time between maintenance events, and found that average time
between maintanance events for a given pipe decreased with
each succeeding maintenance event. Spatial clustering reflect-
ing the increased rate of failure for a given pipe that has failed
once or more before is to be expected.
Examination of Table 1 reveals several interesting features
related to this question. First, 22% of the total failures in the
record occur within 1 m or less of another break ( d , = 1). Given
the considerable overall length of water distribution network
pipes in which the leaks can occur (2187 km in 1983 (Chambers
 GOULTER AND KAZEMI

TABLE1. Spatial groupings of failures

Total number
Total number of groups Number of
of failures containing Number of Number of Number of groups
Maximum distance within d, of failures groups groups groups with 5
between failures another within d, with 2 with 3 with 4 or more
ds (m) failure of each other failures failures failures failures
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-
-

NOTE:The numbers given for each d, value include the failures for all values of d, less than the d, for that line.
For personal use only.

Spatial Interval d , (rn)

FIG. 2. Marginal spatial failure rate RSds versus spatial interval d,.
1983)), the occurrence of the large proportion of leaks in such a
small region indicates a strong clustering effect. The clustering
supports the conclusions of the earlier work by Shamir and
Howard (1979) and Clark et al. (1982) that the temporal rate of
failure in a given location increases with the first and each
succeeding failure. It is also interesting to note from Table 1 that
approximately 46% (9 3691202 13) of all failures occur within
20 m of another failure. The cutoff value of 20 m was chosen,
because it is believed that changes in conditions by either pipe
failure or repair are unlikely to extend further than 20 m away
from the "previous" failure.
The effect of the clustering can be seen more clearly in Fig. 2.
This figure shows the marginal rate at which the number of
breaks included in a cluster decreases with successive incre-
ments in the value of d,. This marginal failure rate, RSd,
represents the additional number of breaks per metre increase in
d,, and is calculated as
where TSFl = total number of failures within dSl of another
failure; TSF, = total number of failures within dS2of another
failure; d,, = length of smaller screening interval; ds2 = length
of larger screening interval; dS2 > dsl. The RS,,, value thus
determined is plotted at the midpoint of the interval between ds2
and dsl. It can be seen very clearly from Fig. 2 that the rate of
failure reduces exponentially with increasing d,.
Table 1 also shows that the majority of the clusters consist of
two breaks. This is especially true for d, = 0 , i.e., repeated
releaks. The relative proportion of clusters containing only two
leaks decreases with increasing d,, as those failures lying a
distance just greater than d,, (d, < 20) from another cluster will
gradually be incorporated into the existing clusters of two leaks,
with each incremental step in d, changing them into clusters of
three or more leaks.
The results of screening the break records according to case 2
are shown in Table 2. Examination of Tables 1 and 2 together
shows that the failures are grouped in space and, as well, there is
a strong temporal grouping within these spatial clusters.
Forty-two percent (186014463) of all failures occurring within
1 m of another failure also occurred within 1 dav of the initial
failure in the group. The increase in failures with increase in the
value of t, beyond 1 day is relatively small. For example, of the
total of 20 2 13 failures (including releaks) identified in this
study, 1860, or 9%, occur within 1 m and 1 day of each other.
 CAN. J . CIV. ENG. VOL. 15, 1988
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Temporal Interval t
FIG. 3. Marginal temporal failure rate R*;
TABLE2. Spatial and temporal grouping of failures
Total number of failures for:
For personal use only.
Maximum distance Maximum time between failures t, (days)
between failures
ds (m) 1 2 7 30 90
Extending the time between failures, t,, from 1 to 90 days for a
constant d , value of 1 m increases the number of leaks by only
681, which is 37% of the total occurring within 1 day. This
observation is further evidence of the strong combined spatial
and temporal clusters of pipe failure. The clustering in both time
and space is shown clearly in Fig. 3, which gives marginal
increase in failure rate with time from the "first" failure for a
range of values of d,.
This marginal temporal failure rate with respect to time for a
given value of d , is designated by RV;, and is calculated:
where TTFi = total number of failures within t,, and d , of
another failure; TTF$ = total number of failures within tSzand
d, of another failure; t,, = length of smaller temporal screening
interval; ts2 = length of larger temporal screening interval.
Examination of Fig. 3 shows that the rapid decrease observed
for the marginal spatial failure rate RS4 also occurs for the
temporal failure rate, Re;. This reduction in temporal
marginal failure rate is further evidence of a general clustering
of failure. The temporal clustering is imposed on the spatial
clustering identified in the first search and lends additional
support to the theory that the occurrence of a failure in a
,(days)
versus temporal interval ts for varying values of ds.
particular location greatly increases the chance that another
failure will occur within the vicinity of the location. The
increased occurrence of breaks may be a function of a general
pipe weakening and pipe bedding deterioration directly related
to the previous break and its subsequent repair. The pipe can be
weakened by the failure itself, whereas the pipe bedding is often
disturbed by water leaking from the previous break and by
physical disturbance during the repair process. These issues are
disc~ssedmore fully in the following section.
It should be noted that the increase in marginal temporal
failure rate with R T with~ increasing d, is to be expected, as
each increase in the spatial interval, d,, permits the inclusion of
additional failures in the grouping for a given value of t,. What
is important, however, is that the marginal spatial failure rate is
also decreasing with increase in the temporal interval, t,. This
condition is demonstrated clearly in Fig. 4, which shows the
change in the marginal spatial failure rate with increase in the
spatial interval.
In this case, the marginal spatial failure rate for given values
of t, is calculated as follows:
where TTF$, = total number of failures within t , and dS2 of
another failure; TTE;, = total number of failures within t , and
d,, of another failure. All other variables are as described
previously.
Examination of Fig. 4 shows a decreasing rate of failure with
increase in d , similar to that observed in Fig. 2. This similarity,
which is true for all t, values, occurs in spite of the fact that the
data in Fig. 2 do not take account of the time interval between
failures. This observation, together with conclusion from Fig.
3, is further evidence of a strong tendency for failures to cluster
within a particular vicinity and within a particular time.
As is the case in Fig. 3, the increase in marginal spatial failure
RSS2, with increasing t, is due to the fact that, with increasing
t,, more and more failures can be included in the same temporal
group for a given value of d,.
 GOULTER A N D KAZEMI
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Spatial Interval d, (m)
FIG.4. Marginal spatial failure rate RRSk versus spatial interval ds for varying values of
5. Discussion and comparison with earlier studies
The relationships shown in Figs. 2-4 all show an exponen-
tially decreasing rate of failure with both time and distance from
For personal use only.
a given initial break. This exponential decrease in failure rate
does not appear compatible with the results of an earlier study by
Shamir and Howard (1979), in which the number of breaks per
unit length of pipe in any given year was described by an
equation of the form
[4] NB(t) = N~(t~)e""-'u)
where' t = time; to = base time; NB(t) = number of breaks per
unit length of pipe at time t; a = coefficient relating the rate of
increase in breaks with time.
The results given in this paper are associated with the spatial
and temporal grouping of breaks rather than being directly
related to the increases in failure rate with time described by [4].
These increases in failure rates with time can, however, be
interpreted in two different but related ways relevant to the
spatial and temporal grouping issues of this study. One
interpretation is that at a particular location the probability of
failure increases with time owing to general deterioration of the
undisturbed pipe and (or) its bedding. The other is that the
longer the pipe is in the ground, the more chance there is of
another failure occurring somewhere in the "vicinity" if not
exactly at that location. The results of the study suggest that the
occurrence of one failure appears to initiate other failures in the
temporal and spatial "vicinity." Hence, the exponential increase
in failure rate with time can be attributed to both the age of the
system and the apparent tendency for initiation of subsequent
breaks following the first failure. The relationship between first
and subsequent breaks was also identified by Clark et al.
(1982), who showed that the number of failure events appears to
increase exponentially with time after the first event. There is,
therefore, some similarity between the results of this study and
that of Shamir and Howard ( 1979).
It should be noted that the clustering effects and rates of
reoccurrence of failure discussed in this paper are conservative.
The data used to develop the various results have included only
those breaks that occurred in the system from 1975 to 1985.
I,
Within this record, there are many failures that are denoted as
releaks, but occur only once in the record and are hence counted
as leaks. These releaks occur only once, as the previous leak (in
some cases there may be more than one) occurred prior to 1975,
which is the year in which leak records began to be entered on a
computer data base. Furthermore, prior to 1975, there are a
number of failures that would have also been included in the
spatial grouping. It was not possible to obtain these previous
failures without an almost impossibly long manual search
through the uncomputerized leak records. Recognizing this
fact, it can be seen, therefore, that the clustering effects are even
more serious than they appear in the results of this study, which
serves to define a lower bound on the severity of the problem.
As indicated earlier in the paper, the physical reasons for both
the increase in failure rate with time as identified in earlier
studies and the spatial and temporal clustering of the failures
themselves can be related to two parameters. The first and most
obvious is the gradual reduction in the structural integrity of the
pipe and possible deterioration in the quality of undisturbed pipe
bedding. This parameter is probably more important for the
increase in overall failure rate than it is for the observed
clustering effects.
The spatial and temporal clustering of failures is believed to
be related more strongly to the effects of the failure and (or) its
subsequent repair on the surrounding environment. The follow-
ing physical conditions may contribute to the initiation of
further failure in the vicinity of the first failures:
(1) Leakage of water from the failed portion of the pipe into
the surrounding material prior to repair. This leakage changes
moisture conditions in the immediate environment, including
the bedding material, thus causing differences in the way the
soil expands or contracts relative to the "undisturbed"
condition.
(2) As shown in Table 3, a large majority of the failures occur
during the winter and early spring seasons (November to March,
inclusive). The average monthly failure rate for these five
months over the period of analysis is 1966 as opposed to 1483 in
the other seven months. Exposure during the repair process of
the failed pipe and surrounding soil to the very cold winter
 CAN. J . CIV. ENG. VOL. 15, I988
TABLE3. Total failures by month
Month Number of failures
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
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November
December
Total
climate in Winnipeg can change thermal conditions significantly
in the vicinity of the pipe, further contributing to differential
movement of the soil in the immediate vicinity of the repair.
These differential movement can induce further failures in a
relatively short time.
(3) The actual repair process will physically disturb the pipe
bedding in the vicinity of the failure.
The significant clustering effects identified and reasons
postulated for such clusters suggest that a promising way to
reduce pipe failure rates in existing pipes is to investigate means
For personal use only.
for maintaining and restoring ambient soil conditions in the
vicinity of the breaks. Such an investigation is likely to require
geotechnical investigation not merely of soil conditions along a
pipe length but, more specifically, right at the location of
failures.
6. Conclusions and recommendations for future research
Pipe failures in the water distribution network of the City of
Winnipeg are shown to exhibit significant clustering in both
space and time. Examples of the clustering are the observations
that 22 and 46% of all failures occur within 1 and 2 0 m
respectively of another failure. Similarly, 42% of the failures
that occur within 1 m of another failure also occur within 1 day
of the initial failure in that group. This clustering suggests that
the occurrence of a failure is a strong indicator of increased
potential for further failures in the pipe in the vicinity of the first
failure, and within a relatively short time following other
failures within a particular group.
The primary cause of the increased number of failures in the
vicinity of the first failure is believed to be related to
disturbances occurring in the surrounding soil as a result of the
. failure itself, and the repair process. Further geotechnically
based research into ground conditions in the vicinity of the
failures rather than along existing unfailed lengths is recommen-
ded, in order to isolate the physical parameters of the failure
mechanisms apparently induced by the first failure. The results
from such research will assist in determining whether a modified
practice for bedding replacement is able to reduce the potential
for future breaks in the vicinity of the initial failure. The fact that
a larger number of failures occur in January and February also
suggest that particular attention should be given to bedding
replacement practice in those two months.
Further research is also needed to investigate the spatial and
temporal patterns of various types of failures, e.g., joint failure,
circumferential cracking, sleeve holes, etc. Such an investiga-
tion may identify particular failure modes responsible for a
major portion of the grouping patterns observed in this paper. If
particular failure modes are noted as being dominant within the
failure patterns, future research into the reduction of pipe failure
in existing pipes can concentrate on the parameters that appear
to be important for those types of failures. Such an analysis
should also be expanded to see if the patterns differ with regions
across the City of Winnipeg, and if so, suggest reasons why.
Such research may identify specific variations in ground
conditions that cause both changes in grouping patterns and
changes in the patterns of particular modes of failure. The
identification of such variations across the city will also help to
isolate certain physical parameters-in particular, soil condit-
ions-that appear fruitful for further research into ways to
reduce the pipe failure conditions in the city.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the work of Mr. F. Silva, who
assisted in the early development of the program for temporal
and spatial grouping, and Mr. G. Chambers for his review of the
original manuscript.
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