GIC – Drexel University Sovereign Debt Restructuring Conference – 23 February 2023

Elevated sovereign default risks

Elena Duggar, Chair of Moody's Macroeconomic Board,
Managing Director, Chief Credit Officer – Americas February 2023
Key messages
Global debt-to-GDP ratio edges lower but remains elevated
1 Government debt-to-GDP remains about eight percentage points above
pre-pandemic levels
Record number of sovereign defaults in 2022
2 A record seven sovereign defaults were recorded in 2022, following one
default in 2021 and six in 2020
Sovereign outlook for 2023 is negative
3 Challenging global credit conditions and a rising share of sovereign
ratings at the lower end of the rating distribution signal elevated default
risk

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Global debt-to-GDP ratio edges lower Key Takeaways
Global government debt-to-GDP ratio is now nine percentage points lower than
its peak at end 2020 » The global government debt-to-
GDP ratio is declining following
Debt-to-GDP ratios across all debt categories are down from their Q4 2020-Q1 2021 strong 2021 growth, high
peaks
(Debt-to-GDP ratio by borrower category, %) inflation, weak 2022 issuance
and rising sovereign defaults
Households Nonfinancial coporations Government Financial corporations
110
Bursting of the Global financial COVID-19
» The total change in government
97.0%
100 dot-com bubble crisis pandemic debt-to-GDP ratio between 2022
97.0%
and 2019 of about eight
90 percentage points (pp), is
smaller than the 17 pp increase
80
80.3% between 2010 and 2007 during
70 the global financial crisis

60 63.0%
» The global government debt-to-
GDP ratio at the end of 2022
50 was on par with the global
corporate debt-to-GDP ratio at
40
97%

For more detail, see: Debt after COVID – October 2022, 12 October 2022
Sources: IIF and Moody’s Investors Service

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Median debt-to-GDP ratio of emerging and frontier markets has caught
up with that of advanced economies
Increase in debt due to the COVID-19 shock follows a decade of rising debt in emerging and frontier markets
(Median general government debt-to-GDP ratio by country group, %)
Advanced economies Emerging market economies Frontier market economies
65

60
Global financial
55
crisis

50

45

40
COVID-19
pandemic
35

30

25

20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023F 2024F

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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Debt servicing costs are only starting to rise from low levels in advanced
economies, but continue upward trend in emerging and frontier markets
Frontier economies are facing higher debt servicing costs and tight market access Frontier economies are more dependent on foreign-currency debt
(General government interest payments as % of general government revenue) (Share of foreign-currency government debt, %)
Advanced economies Emerging market economies
Emerging market economies Frontier market economies
Frontier market economies
75
12
70
10 65

60
8
55
6
50

4 45

40
2
35

0 30

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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Record number of sovereign defaults in 2022 Key Takeaways
One sovereign default so far in 2023
2023 defaults to date:
Argentina
Defaults of Moody’s-rated sovereign issuers leapt to a record high in 2022
2022 defaults:
Moody's rated sovereign bond defaults Unrated sovereign bond and/or loan defaults
El Salvador, Mali, Sri
12 160
Number of sovereign ratings - RHS Lanka, Belarus, Russia,
140 Ukraine, Ghana
10

Number of sovereign ratings

120
8 2021 default: Belize
Number of defaults

100

6 80
2020 defaults:
60
Argentina, Lebanon,
4 Ecuador, Suriname,
40 Belize, Zambia
2 » Chad (unrated) was the first country
20
to reach agreement for debt
0 0 treatment under the G-20 Common
Framework, while debt restructurings
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
for Ethiopia, Zambia and Ghana are
being negotiated
For details, see Sovereign – Global: Sovereign default and recovery rates, 1983-2021, April 2022
Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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Sovereign default risk will remain elevated, as signaled by the larger
share of ratings at the lower end of the rating distribution
2022 share of sovereign ratings in the Caa-C category is over two Sovereign ratings effectively rank order default risk
times the historical average (Issuer-weighted cumulative sovereign default rates, 1983-2021)
(Rating distribution of sovereign issuers, in percentages)

Caa-C B Ba Baa A Aa Aaa One Year Five Year

100 40%

90 35%
80
30%
70
25%
60

50 20%

40
15%
30
10%
20
5%
10

0 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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Five key credit themes for 2023

Source: Moody's Investors Service, Credit Conditions – Global: 2023 Outlook – Risks are rising across the credit spectrum as conditions turn adverse, 2 November 2022

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Moody’s sovereign outlook for 2023 is negative
High prices, slow growth intensify social risks

Share of ratings on negative outlook exceeds share Sovereign downgrade rate has declined to historical
of ratings on positive outlook averages but exceeds upgrade rate
Credit conditions will be difficult,
(as of November 2022) (# of rating actions as percentage share of the sovereign especially for frontier markets and
rating universe) countries reliant on external financing:
» The spillovers from Russia’s invasion
Upgrades Downgrades
30%
of Ukraine hit many countries still
recovering from COVID-19, creating a
25.0% “shock upon a shock”
25%
» High energy and food prices still
weigh on energy and food importers
20% and raise social and political risks
» Slow global economic and trade
15% 13.9% growth will challenge economies
10.9%
11.8% reliant on export-led growth models
10% » Tight financial conditions and market
7.2% 7.0%
5.6% 5.6%
volatility will mean “stop and go”
5% 3.5%
4.2% market access for sovereigns under
credit stress
0% » Higher US interest rates and the
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 strong dollar will raise debt-servicing
costs on foreign-currency debt

*The 145 figure includes Russia, the rating for which was withdrawn during 2022.
Source: Moody's Investors Service, Sovereigns – Global: 2023 credit outlook is negative as high prices, slow growth intensify social risks, 14 November 2022.

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While the share of sovereign ratings in the Caa-C category has
jumped, the share of debt in the B and Caa-C categories is small
Moody’s sovereign rating distribution, as of end 2022 Total amount of government debt by rating category, as of 2022
(Number of ratings in each rating category) (Share of total government debt, %)

40 B
Ba Caa-C
35 2% 2%
35 4%
Baa
12%
30
25
25 Aaa
19 20 44%
20 18
15
15 12
A
10
25%
5
Aa
0
11%
Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa-C

Investment grade: 44% Non-investment grade: 55% Investment grade: 93.0%

WR: 1% Non-investment grade: 7.0%

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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Key open questions about sovereign debt restructurings
We are potentially in the midst of a frontier market sovereign debt crisis, but we do not expect an emerging market debt crisis as larger
emerging market sovereigns have demonstrated resilience

» Potentially a large number of defaulting governments but a small amount of overall sovereign debt
» Growing diversity of the creditor base and growing diversity of debt instruments involved
» Would restructurings deliver sufficient debt relief to avoid a protracted period of recurrent debt exchanges?
» Can the speed of resolving restructurings under the Common Framework be improved?
» Will sovereign debt markets evolve fast enough to rise up to the challenges of climate change?

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Moody’s related publications
Outlooks
» Credit Conditions – Global: 2023 Outlook - Risks are rising across the credit spectrum as conditions turn adverse, November 2022

» Sovereigns – Global: 2023 credit outlook is negative as high prices, slow growth intensify social risks, November 2022

» Emerging Markets – Global: 2023 Outlook - Negative credit conditions leave weaker debt issuers exposed, November 2022

» Global Macro Outlook 2023-24 (November 2022 Update): Global economy faces a reckoning over inflation, geopolitics and policy trade-offs,
November 2022

Sector research
» Sovereign – Global: Sovereign default and recovery rates, 1983-2021, April 2022

» Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Key Facts from History, February 2022

» Debt after COVID – June 2021: Focus on sovereign debt: Unequal debt realities, June 2021

» Sovereign Debt Relief through COVID, February 2021

» Sovereign Defaults Series: The causes of sovereign defaults, August 2020

» Sovereign Ratings Methodology, November 2022

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Elena Duggar Claire Li
Chair of Moody’s Macroeconomic Board Vice President - Senior Analyst
Managing Director, Chief Credit Officer - Americas Credit Strategy & Research
Credit Strategy & Research claire.li@moodys.com
elena.duggar@moodys.com +1.212.553.3780
+1.212.553.1911

moodys.com
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