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Chapter-2-Methods For Calculating Profitability
Chapter-2-Methods For Calculating Profitability
• It is used as the general term for measure of the amount of profit that can be
obtained from a given investment.
• Profits and cost are considered which will occur in the future and hence the possibility
of inflation or deflation affecting future profits and costs must be recognized.
• There are many reason why investments are made . Sometimes, the purpose is merely
to supply a service which can not possibly yield a monetary profit, such as the
provision of recreation facilities for free use of employees. The profitability of such
venture can’t be expressed on numerical basis.
• Peter Drucker has said that “profitability is not a perfect measurement; no one
has been able to define it, and yet it is a measurement, despite all its
imperfections.”
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Project Classification
Any healthy, growing company has more requests for funding projects than funds available. In order to
consider the requests for funds, a company will establish a priority or classification system. For example,
projects may be classified as follows:
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Project Classification
projected.
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Rate of Return
• A rate of return (RoR) is the net gain or loss of an investment over a specified time period,
expressed as a percentage of the investment’s initial cost.
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Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return
A number of factors affect the minimum acceptable rate of return, barrier or hurdle return,
established by management for a venture to be funded.
Difference in
risks of Competing
investment Investments
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Quantitative measures of Profitability
Return on Investment
From a calculation standpoint, it is the simplest and is used frequently for quick answers.
These results obtained may be related back by the user to historical decisions, giving the
user a sense of confidence in the results.
There are several variations of this method; for example, the numerator might be net
earnings before taxes and the denominator could be fixed capital investment or fixed and
working capital.
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Quantitative measures of Profitability: RoI
Although this method is simple to use and relates to accepted accounting methods, it has
some serious disadvantages:
• A basic assumption in this method is that all projects are similar in nature to each other.
• The project will last the estimated life, and this is often not true.
• Equal weight is given to all income for all years and that is not always true.
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Quantitative measures of Profitability: RoAI
Return on Average Investment (RoAI)
These are methods for measuring the profitability of investments utilizing accounting data
and are based on averaging methods.
The fixed capital investment is divided by 2, so that over the life of the investment, the
return is earned against the average investment.
The justification for this is that at the beginning of a project the return is earned against
the full investment, and at the end of a project the investment has been fully depreciated
and the capital has been recovered.
This method has all the inherent disadvantages of the previous method.
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Quantitative measures of Profitability: PoP
The objective of this method is to calculate the amount of time that will be required to
recover the depreciable fixed capital investment from the accrued cash flow of a project.
The denominator may be the averaged annual cash flows or the individual yearly cash flows.
The method is simple to use and has served as a historical measure of profitability,
comparing POP of proposed projects with those in the past.
There are some disadvantages to using the method, since no consideration is given to
cash flows that occur after the capital is recovered; therefore, this method cannot be
considered as a true measure of profitability.
The method makes no provision for including land or working capital and the time value of
money is ignored.
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Quantitative measures of Profitability: PoPI
Payout Period with Interest (POPI)
The payout period with interest takes into account the time value of money.
The net effect of the interest calculation is to increase the payout time, therefore
reflecting the advantages for projects that earn most of their profits in the early years.
(After tax cash flows)i= cash flow discounted to time zero at interest rate i.
(Fixed capital investment)i= fixed capital investment compounded to time zero at interest rate i.
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Quantitative measures of Profitability: NPW
Net Present Worth (NPW)
The net present worth (NPW) is the one most companies use since it has none of the
disadvantages of other methods and treats the time value of money and its effect on
project profitability properly.
The net present worth is the algebraic sum of the discounted values of the cash flows each
year during the life of a project.
In the net present worth method, an arbitrary time frame, i.e., time zero, is selected as the
basis of calculation.
Time zero, the present time, may occur when the first funds are spent on the project or
alternatively when project start-up commences.
If all projects are considered using the same basis, it makes no difference which time zero
is used since the ultimate decision will be the same;
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Quantitative measures of Profitability: NPW
Capital
Let’s assume that time zero is arbitrarily Recovery
selected at start-up.
It will be assumed that the construction occurs uniformly over a period of time.
Both land and the fixed capital investment are compounded to time zero using the
appropriate compounding factors.
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Quantitative measures of Profitability: NPW
One might consider that the land and working capital were “loaned” to the project by the
company.
The present worths of all cash inflows are calculated as are the present worths of all
investment items.
The difference between these present worths is the net present worth of the project.
Net present worth (NPW)= Present worth of all cash inflows – present worth of all investment items
If the NPW is positive, the project will earn more than the interest (discount) rate used in
the calculations.
If the NPW is negative, then the project earns less than that rate.
When this method is applied to two or more alternative cases, the project with the higher
NPW will produce a greater future worth to a company and, therefore, is preferred.
The advantages of this method are that the timing of all cash flows and capital recovery at
the end of a project are considered properly.
The major disadvantage is that the capital investment is hidden in the calculations and needs
to be stated clearly in any report of the results.
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Illustrative Problem
Apex Chemicals, Inc. is a newly organized company that had formerly been a division of Triangle Petroleum
Company. The petroleum company sold the division to a group of investors, some of whom were former
employees of Triangle. The new dynamic aggressive management of Apex is seeking new ventures in the
specialty and electronic chemicals business areas. In searching for new ventures, the manufacture of a
liquid intermediate with potential use in the etching of metals appears to be attractive.
A process to manufacture this new chemical called “ETCHIT” was developed. A preliminary estimate of
the fixed capital investment of $7,500,000 was obtained for a 20MM lb/yr plant capacity. It may be
assumed that the fixed capital investment was purchased and installed uniformly over a 2-year period.
Land valued at $200,000 was charged to the projected instantaneously two years prior to start-up.
Working capital at 15% of the fixed capital investment was charged to the project instantaneously at time
zero. Start-up expenses may be assumed to be 6% of the fixed capital investment uniformly spread over
the first year of operation. In order to produce the chemical, a proprietary catalyst was licensed for a
one-time charge of $150,000. For the purpose of this analysis, the cost is charged instantaneously 1 year
prior to start-up.
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Illustrative Problem… contd..
The marketing department of Apex provided the Cash operating expenses for the 10-year period
following information for a 10-year project life. were estimated by the manufacturing group to
be as follows:
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Illustrative Problem… contd..
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Cash Flow Models: Money flow diagram of a company
Cash Flow, CF
Revenue Cash Operating
Operations
R Expenses, C
Operating Income
R-C Cash Flow= CF = D + (1-t)(R-C-D)
Depreciation Rearrange
2090500000
= × 100 =
9425000
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Alternative investments
Revenue COE
It may be necessary, therefore, not only to decide if a given business venture would be
profitable, but also to decide which of several possible methods would be the most
desirable.
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Illustration-1
A chemical company is considering adding a new production unit which will
require a total investment of $1,200,000 and will yield an annual profit of
$240,000. An alternative addition has been proposed requiring an investment of
$2 million and yielding an annual profit $300,000. Although both of these
proposals are based on reliable estimates, the company executives feel that
other equally sound investments can be made with at least 14% annual rate of
return. What is your say on that?
It would be more profitable to accept the $1,200,000 proposal and invest $800,00
elsewhere on minimum annual ROR.
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Alternative investments
The minimum investment which will give the necessary functional results and the required
rate of return should always be accepted unless there is a specific reason for accepting an
alternative investment requiring more initial capital.
When alternatives are available, therefore the base plan would be that requiring the
minimum acceptable investment.
The alternatives should be compared with the base plan, and additional capital would not be
invested unless an acceptable incremental return or some other distinct advantage could be
shown.
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Alternative when an investment must be made
The design engineer often encounters a situation where it is absolutely necessary to make an
investment and the only choice available is among various alternatives.
The evaporator units must have a given capacity based on the plant requirement, but there
are several alternative methods for carrying out the operation.
Under these conditions, the best number of effects could be determined by comparing the
increased savings with the investment required for each addition effect.
Remember: the base plan for an alternative comparison would be the minimum investment
which gives the necessary functional results. The alternative should then be compared with
the base plan, and recommended only when it would give a definite advantage.
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Alternative when an investment must be made
Consider an investment of
$50,000 will give a desired result
while investment of $60,000 and
$70,000 will give the same result
with less annual expense.
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Illustration-2
An existing plant has been operating in such a way that a large amount of heat is being lost
in the waste gases. It has been proposed to save money by recovering the heat that is now
being lost. Four different heat exchangers have been designed to recover the heat, and all
prices, costs, and savings have been calculated for each of the designs. The results of these
calculations are presented in the following table:
The company in charge of the plant demands at least a 10 percent annual return based on
the initial investment for any unnecessary investment. Only one of the four designs can be
accepted. Neglecting effects due to income taxes and the time value of money, which (if
any) of the four designs should be recommended?
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Illustration-2
The first step of the solution is to determine the amount of money saved per year for each
design, from which annual ROR could be determined.
𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔
Annual percent return =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡
Design 1
Design 2
Design 3
Design 4
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Alternative analysis by method of return on
incremental investment
Analysis by means of return on incremental investment is accomplished by a logical step-by-
step comparison of an acceptable investment to another which might be better.
If design No. 1 is taken as the starting basis,
Comparison of design No. 2 to design No. 1 Design No. 2 should
Annual saving difference= $2700-$2000 = $700 be recommended.
Extra investment = $16,000-$10,000= $6000
ROR = 700/6000 = 11.7%
Now design No. 2 is acceptable and preferred over design No. 1
The annual cost for the required return would be 10% of the total initial investment
Because annual saving is greater for Design No. 2, this would be the recommended alternative.
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Replacements
The term “replacement,” refers to a special type of alternative in which facilities are currently
in existence and it may be desirable to replace these facilities with different ones.
The reasons for making replacements can be divided into two general classes, as follows:
1. The property is worn out and can give no further useful service.
2. The property does not have sufficient capacity to meet the demand placed upon it.
3. Operation of the property is no longer economically feasible because changes in
design or product requirements have caused the property to become obsolete.
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Replacements
• An existing property is capable of yielding the necessary product or service, but more
efficient equipment or property is available which can operate with lower expenses.
When the reason for a replacement falls in the first general type, the only alternatives are to
make the necessary changes or else go out of business. Under these conditions, the final
economic analysis is usually reduced to a comparison of alternative investments.
For case-2, the correct decision as the desirability of replacing an existing property which is
capable of yielding the necessary product or service depends on a clear understanding of
theoretical replacement policies plus a careful consideration of many practical factors.
In order to determine whether or not a change is advisable, the operating expenses with the
present equipment must be compared with those that would exist if the change were made.
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Illustration-3
A company is using a piece of equipment which originally cost $30,000. The equipment has
been in use for 5 years, and it now has a net realizable value of $6000. At the time of
installation, the service life was estimated to be 10 years and the salvage value at the end of
the service life was estimated to be zero. Operating costs amount to $22,000/year. At the
present time, the remaining service life of the equipment is estimated to be 3 years.
A proposal has been made to replace the present piece of property by one of more advanced
design. The proposed equipment would cost $40,000, and the operating costs would be
$15,000/year. The service life is estimated to be 10 years with a nonzero salvage value. Each
piece of equipment will perform the same service, and all costs other than those for operation
and depreciation will remain constant. Depreciation costs are determined by the straight-line
method. The company will not make any unnecessary investments in equipment unless it can
obtain an annual return on the necessary capital of at least 10 percent.
The two alternatives in this example are to continue the use of the present equipment or to
make the suggested replacement.
In order to choose the better alternative, it is necessary to consider both the reduction in
expenses obtainable by making the change and the amount of new capital necessary.
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Illustration-3
$40,000
The annual variable expenses for the proposed equipment = $15,000 + = $19,000
10
The net realizable value of the existing equipment is $6000.
The annual depreciation cost for the existing equipment during the remaining three years of
service life would be $6000/3 = $2000.
For purposes of comparison, the annual variable expenses if the equipment is retained in
service would be $22,000 + $2000 = $24,000.
The cost of the new equipment is $40,000, but the sale of the existing property would
provide $6000; therefore, it would be necessary to invest only $34,000 to bring about an
annual saving of $5000.
ROR=
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Book Values and Unamortized Values
Book value is equal to the cost of carrying an asset on a company's balance sheet, and firms calculate
it netting the asset against its accumulated depreciation.
In the preceding example, the book value of the existing property was $15,000 at the time of the proposed
replacement.
Rate of depreciation = $30,000/10 = $3,000
Book value after 5 years = 5 * $3,000 = $15,000
The book value is based on past conditions, and the correct decision as to the desirability of
making a replacement must be based on present conditions.
The difference between the book value and the net realizable value at any time is commonly
designated as the unamortized value.
In the previous example, the unamortized value was $15,000 - $6000 = $9000.
This means that a $9000 loss was incurred because of incorrect estimation of depreciation
allowances.
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Book Values and Unamortized Values
Some individuals feel that a positive unamortized value represents a loss which would be caused by
making a replacement. However, that is not true.
The loss is a result of past mistakes, and the fact that the error was not apparent until a replacement was
considered.
When making theoretical replacement studies, unamortized values must be considered as due to past
errors, and these values are of no significance in the present decision as to whether or not a replacement
should be made.
Although unamortized values have no part in a replacement study, they must be accounted for in some
manner.
One method for handling these capital losses or gains is to charge them directly to the profit-and-loss
account for the current operating period. It may affect profits for the period.
Many concerns protect themselves against such unfavorable effects by building up a surplus reserve fund
to handle unamortized values. This fund is accumulated by setting aside a certain sum each accounting
period. When losses due to unamortized values occur, they are charged against the accumulated fund.
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Investment on which Replacement Comparison
is Based
Net Realizable Value
The net realizable value of an existing property should be assumed to be the market value.
Although this may be less than the actual value of the property as far as the owner is
concerned, it still represents the amount of capital which can be obtained from the old
equipment if the replacement is made.
Any attempt to assign an existing property a value greater than the net realizable value tends
to favor replacements which are uneconomical.
Analysis of Common Errors Made in Replacement Studies
Most of the errors in replacement studies are caused by failure to realize that a replacement analysis
must be based on conditions existing at the present time.
Some persons insist on trying to compensate for past mistakes by forcing new ventures to pay off losses
incurred in the past. Instead, these losses should be accepted, and the new venture should be considered
on its own merit.
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Investment on which Replacement Comparison
is Based
Including Unamortized Value as an Addition to the Replacement Investment.
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Investment on which Replacement Comparison
is Based
Use of Book Value for Old Equipment in Replacement Studies
This error is caused by refusal to admit that the depreciation accounting methods used in the
past were wrong.
When book values are used in replacement studies, the apparent costs for the existing
equipment are usually greater than they should be, while the apparent capital outlay for the
replacement is reduced.
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Illustration-4
A new manufacturing unit has just been constructed and put into operation by your company. The basis of
the manufacturing process is a special computer for control (designated as OVT computer) as developed
by your research department. The plant has now been in operation for less than one week and is
performing according to expectations. A new computer (designated as NTR computer) has just become
available on the market. This new computer can easily be installed at once in place of your present
computer and will do the identical job at far less annual cash expense because of reduced maintenance and
personnel costs. However, if the new computer is installed, your present computer is essentially worthless
because you have no other use for it.
What recommendation would you make relative to replacing the present $2,000,000 computer with
the new computer?
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Illustration-4
Assuming straight-line depreciation, the annual total expenses with the NTR computer
= $50,000 + $1,000,000/10 = $150,000.
For replacement economic comparison, the OVT computer is worth nothing at the present time;
therefore, annual total expenses with the OVT computer = $250,000 (i.e., no depreciation charge).
The $2,000,000 investment for the OVT computer is completely lost if the NTR computer is installed.
If your company is willing to accept a return on investment of 10 percent before taxes [or (0.66x10) =
6.6 percent after taxes, assuming a 34 percent tax rate], the replacement should be made.
Your company can write off the $2,000,000 loss in one lump sum against other capital gains which
would normally be taxed at 34 percent. Net saving = $680,000 (34% tax rate)
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Illustration-4
Assuming a 34 percent tax rate on annual profits and dividing the $600,000 capital-gains tax saving
over the ten years of the new computer life, the percent return after taxes =
Because of the reduced costs for the NTR computer, profitability evaluation including time value of
money will tend to favor the replacement more than does the method of rate of return on investment as
used for the solution of this example.
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Practical Factors in Alternative investment and Replacement
Studies
The previous discussion has presented the theoretical viewpoint of alternative investment and
replacement studies; however, certain practical considerations also influence the final decision.
In many cases, the amount of available capital is limited. From a practical viewpoint, therefore, it may
be desirable to accept the smallest investment which will give the necessary service and permit the
required return.
A second practical factor which should be considered is the accuracy of the estimations used in
determining the rates of return. A theoretically sound investment might not be accepted because the
service life used in determining depreciation costs appear to be too long. All risk factors should be
given due consideration.
The economic conditions existing at the particular time have an important practical effect on the final
decision. In depression periods or in times when economic conditions are very uncertain, it may be
advisable to refrain from investing any more capital than is absolutely necessary.
Many intangible factors such as advertising, enter into the final decision on a proposed investment.
Personal whims or prejudices, desire to better a competitor’s rate of production or standards, the
availability of excess capital, and the urge to expand an existing plant are other practical factors which
may be involved in determining whether or not a particular investment will be made.
The final decision depends on these theoretical results plus practical factors determined by the
existing circumstances.
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Next…. Chapter 3: Depreciation
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