FOURTH QUARTER

Chapter 4: Test of Hypothesis

❖ Lesson 2: Type I and Type II Error

Objective:
At the end of this lesson, you should
be able to
❑calculate the probabilities of
committing Type I and Type
II error. [M11/12SP-IVa-2]
In previous lessons, you learned
the two types of error in
hypothesis testing. A Type I error
occurs if the null hypothesis is true
and it is rejected. A Type II error
occurs if the null hypothesis is not
true but not rejected.
2
Remember that no hypothesis test is
100% true because it is based on the
sample rather than the .
There is always a probability of
drawing an incorrect decision.
In this lesson, you will learn how to
compute the probabilities of
committing Type I and Type II error.
3
A mobile company is innovating a
new mobile phone and is interested how long it
will take for a battery to charge fully. The
standard deviation is known to be 15 minutes.
The company wishes to test if the mean
charging time is at most 30 minutes compared to
the claim that it is more than 30 minutes.
A random sample of 35 mobile phones was
selected and the mean charging time is more
than 35 minutes.
Can it be concluded that the mean charging time
is not at most 30 minutes if the critical region is
greater than 35 minutes? 4
The null hypothesis is that the mean
charging time of the mobile phone to
be fully charged is at most 30 minutes,
and the alternative hypothesis is that
the mean charging time to full charge
is more than 30 minutes.
H0: μ ≤ 30 minutes
HA: μ > 30 minutes
5
➢ Suppose if 𝒙ഥ ≤ 35 minutes,
the mobile company will not
reject the null hypothesis,
ഥ > 35 minutes, the
and if 𝒙
company will reject the null
hypothesis in favor of the
alternative hypothesis.
6
➢ 𝒙ഥ > 35 minutes is the region where the null
hypothesis is rejected while 𝒙ഥ ≤ 35 minutes is
the region where the null hypothesis is not
rejected.

Fail to reject H0 RejectH0

μ ≤30minutes μ > 30minutes

7
Probability of Committing Type I
and Type II Errors
① The probability of committing a
Type I error, denoted by α, will
occur if the null hypothesis is
rejected when it is true.
In symbols,
α = P (reject H0 when H0 is true).
8
Suppose that the true mean
charging time is more than 35
minutes (when μ ≤ 30 minutes is
false) and the calculated sample
mean is not in the critical
region.
This is the case that the null
hypothesis is not rejected when
it is false. 9
② This type of error is called
Type II error.
➢ The probability of Type II error is
β = P (fail to reject H0 when H0 is
not true).
➢ To compute β, a specific value
for μ is set for the alternative
hypothesis.
10
In the example, suppose it is important
to reject the null hypothesis when the mean
charging time is more than 35 minutes.
𝒙 ≤ 35 when μ = 40 minutes)
β = P (ഥ
The diagram below shows the relationship
between the null and alternative hypotheses.

11
Lesson 11: Mean and Variance Sampling Distribution
The formula for z-value is used to
get the corresponding tail area of the
probability of committing Type I and
Type II errors.
The is used when the
population is normally distributed and
population standard deviation is known
while the second formula is used for
any population given that the sample
size is at least 30.
12
 𝒙−𝝁 ഥ −𝛍
𝒙
z= z= 𝝈
𝝈 𝒏
where:
z = standard normal distribution value
x = normal variable
ഥ = sample mean
𝒙
μ = mean of the normal distribution
σ = standard deviation of the normal
distribution
n = sample size 13
 A mobile company is innovating a new
mobile phone and is interested how long it will
take for a battery to charge fully. The standard
deviation is known to be 15 minutes. The company
wishes to test if the mean charging time is
compared to the claim that it is
more than 30 minutes. A random sample of 35
mobile phones was selected and the mean
charging time is more than 35 minutes.
Can it be concluded that the mean charging time is
not at most 30 minutes if the critical region is
greater than 35 minutes?
14
Step 1: List the known facts of the problem.
μ = 30
σ = 15
ഥ = 35
𝒙
n = 35

Step 2: Apply the z – test formula.

ഥ−𝛍
𝒙 𝟑𝟓 − 𝟑𝟎
z= 𝝈 z= 𝟏𝟓 z = 1.97
𝒏 𝟑𝟓

Note: Round off the answer to two

15 decimal places.
Step 3: Identify if the test is one - tailed or two - tailed.

This is a one - tailed test since the rejection area

are values above 35.
Step 4: Draw the normal curve and label the z-
score/s over the given variable.

16
Step 5: Find the probability of the tail area,
which is the rejection area.
α = P(z > 1.97)
α = 0.5 − 0.4756
α = 0.0244
The probability of committing Type I error
is 0.0244. This means that 2.44% of all
random samples would lead to the
rejection of the null hypothesis μ ≤ 30
minutes. 17
 The product engineer in a
manufacturing company is designing a new
plastic container for their new product and is
interested in the box height. The height of the
container (in cm) is normally distributed and has
a standard deviation of 3 cm. The company
wishes to test if the mean is less than or equal to
10 cm against the claim that it is greater than 10
cm using the results of 32 samples. The critical
region is defined as 𝒙ഥ > 11. What is the
probability of committing Type II error if the
true mean height is 12 cm?
18
Step 1: List the known facts of
the problem. μ = 12
σ=3
ഥ = 11
𝒙
n = 32

Step 2: Apply the z – test formula.

ഥ−𝛍
𝒙 𝟏𝟏 −𝟏𝟐
z= 𝝈 z= 𝟑 z = −𝟏. 𝟖𝟗
𝒏 𝟑𝟐

19
Step 3: Identify if the test is one-tailed or
two-tailed.
This is a one-tailed test since the rejection
area are values below 11.
Step 4: Draw the normal curve and label the
z-score/s over the given variable.

20
Step 5: Find the probability of the tail
area, which is the rejection area.
β = P(z <−1.89)
β = 0.0294
The probability of committing Type II
error is 0.0294. This means that 2.94% of
all random samples would lead to the
rejection of the null hypothesis μ ≤ 12
minutes.
21
Is it possible to have
the same probability
of committing Type I
and Type II errors?
22
 When the population is normally or
approximately distributed, population
standard deviation σ is unknown, and
n < 30, use the t-test formula. That is,
ഥ−𝝁
𝒙
t = 𝒔 where t is the t distribution
√𝒏
ഥ is the sample mean, μ is the
value, 𝒙
population mean, s is the sample
standard deviation, and n is the sample
size.
23
Table 5.1: of z only

Type of Level of Significance

Test 𝛼=0.05
One-tailed
Two-tailed
Note: The critical value of t,
must use the t-table.
24
 A new drug on the
market is claimed by its
manufactures to reduce overweight
women by 4.55 kg per month with a
standard deviation of 0.91 kg. Ten
women chosen at random have
reported losing an average of 4.05 kg
within a month. Does this data support
the claim of the manufacturer at 0.05
level of significance?
25
Follow the five-step procedure Try it at Home! Solution
in testing hypothesis.
STEP 1: Formulate the Hypothesis.
H0: The average weight loss per month
using new drug is equal to 4.55 kg
(μ = 4.55)
HA: The average weight loss per month
using a new drug is not equal to 4.55
kg (μ ≠ 4.55)
26
 Try it at Home! Solution

STEP 2: Type of test: two-tailed or

nondirectional test.
Critical value: with the use of t - Table,
𝜶 = 0.05, two-tailed test, the critical
value is t = 2.262.

o Illustrate the curve with the Rejection

Region
27
STEP 3: Compute the test value, using the formula or
test statistic. μ = 4.55
σ = 0.91
ഥ = 4.05
𝒙
n = 10
Substitute the given values in the formula.
ഥ−𝝁
𝒙 ഥ−𝝁
𝒙 𝟒.𝟎𝟓−𝟒.𝟓𝟓
t= 𝒔 or t = 𝒏 t= 𝟏𝟎
𝒔 𝟎.𝟗𝟏
𝒏

t = −𝟏. 𝟕𝟒

The Test value or computed value is t = -1.74

28
STEP 4: Decision:
Since the computed or test value does not
fall within the rejection region, we accept
the null hypothesis.
STEP 5: Conclusion:
There is no significant difference between
the sample mean and population mean.
Thus, the manufacturer is correct in
claiming that the new drug in the market
can reduce overweight women by 4.55 kg
per month. 29
 The production manager of a large
manufacturing company estimates that the mean
age of his employees is 22.8 years. The treasure
of the firm needs a more accurate employee
mean age figure in order to estimate the cost of
an annuity benefit program being considered for
employee. The treasurer takes a random sample
of 70 workers and find out that the mean age of
the employees sampled is 26.2 years with a
standard deviation of 4.6 years. At the 0.01 level
of significance, what can the treasurer conclude
about the accuracy of the production manager’s
estimate? 30
Follow the five-step procedure in testing hypothesis.
STEP 1: Formulate the Hypothesis.
H0: μ = 22.58 The mean age of the employees is 22.8 years
HA: μ ≠ 22.58 The mean age of the employees is not 22.8 years

STEP 2: Type of test: two - tailed or nondirectional test.

Critical value: with the use of Table 5.1, 𝛂 = 0.05, two-
tailed test, the critical value is z = ±𝟐. 𝟓𝟖.

✓ Illustrate the curve with the Rejection Region

31
STEP 3: Compute the test value, using the formula or
test statistic. μ = 22.8
σ = 4.6
ഥ = 26.2
𝒙
n = 70
Substitute the given values in the formula.
ഥ−𝝁
𝒙 ഥ−𝝁
𝒙 𝟐𝟔.𝟐−𝟐𝟐.𝟖
t= 𝒔 or t = 𝒏 t= 𝟕𝟎
𝒔 𝟒.𝟔
𝒏

t = 𝟔. 𝟏𝟖

The Test value or computed value is t = 6.18

32
STEP 4: Decision:
Since the computed or test value does fall
within the rejection region, we accept the
null hypothesis.

STEP 5: Conclusion:
between the
sample mean and population mean. Thus,
the treasurer of the firm can conclude that
the manager is incorrect in his estimate that
the mean age of the employee is 22.8 years
33
❑ The probability of committing
type I error is the risk of rejecting
the null hypothesis when it is
true.
❑ The probability of committing
type II error is the risk of not
rejecting the null hypothesis
when it is false.34