AXRG

20 de febrero de 2022

CHINA VS USA
ANA XIMENA RODRIGUEZ GUIZAR

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Consequences and
Causes
• When discussing this trade dispute, it is important to note the trade imbalance that exists
between the two countries.
2017 Import Numbers (via US Census Bureau)

• United States imported around $505 billion of goods from China

• China imported around $130 billion of goods from the United States.
• US has a $375 billion trade de cit with China.

• USA – April 2018

In response to China’s alleged trading practices, ie. the forced technology transfer
policy, the Trump Administration announced that it will impose a 25% tariff on $50
billion worth of high-tech industrial imports from China.
• China – April 2018
In retaliation, China announces its own 25% tariff on $50 billion worth US goods.
• USA – April 2018
The Chinese company ZTE was penalized for doing business with Iran and North
Korea. US bans ZTE from purchasing from US suppliers for seven years.

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• China & USA – June 2018

China agrees to lift tariffs on some agricultural products in exchange for lifting the US
supplier ban on ZTE.
• USA – June 2018
The Trump Administration announces plans to enforce the 25% tariffs on $50 billion of
Chinese imports.
• USA – June 2018
The Trump Administration announces plans to impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion
worth of Chinese imports.
• USA & China – July 2018
Both sides of cially implement tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other’s imports. An
additional $16 billion is expected to go into effect soon.
• USA – July 2018
President Trump said in an interview that he was willing to impose a tariff on all $505
billion of Chinese imports.

IMPACTS
There are two important things to grasp about the US-China trade war.

1. It is going to last for a while. Tariffs tend to hang around once imposed. The US
Government is committed to ghting China on trade and IP rights, and a change of US
administration will only alter the language, not the stance. Meanwhile, China is committed to
consolidating its position as a world economic power.

2. It is accelerating trends that have already begun – such as the growth of China’s

consumption economy, nancial liberalisation and its rise up the manufacturing value chain.
These trends and others are signi cant for real estate investors in Asia-Paci c.

In January 2018, the USA announced the rst tariffs, on solar panels and washing machines.
A raft of others followed, with China responding in kind. In 2019, the US imposed tariffs on
$360 billion worth of Chinese products; China, in turn, imposed tariffs on $110 billion worth
of US goods.

However, in January this year, the warring parties signed a ‘phase one’ trade deal, in which
China agreed to strengthen IP protections and increase purchases of US goods by $200
billion in 2020-2021 (the increase based on 2017 numbers) in return for a slight easing of
tariffs. Some observers believe this rst phase deal is an important step, however there is also
widespread agreement that a second phase is unlikely to happen.

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The reason for this lack of optimism is because of the dif culty China will have in moving
further in the direction the USA requires. The phase one deal does not cover non-tariff
barriers to trade, such as subsidies to Chinese companies and procurement rules. Nor does it
address a fundamental US bugbear, that of the lack of a meaningful separation of state and
business in China. And, it is highly unlikely that China’s rulers will abandon the state
capitalism model that has served them so well.

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LIMITATIONS
Our rough calculations also did not take into account China's response to US tariffs. Any
retaliatory action could raise consumer prices in China, reduce pro t margins and reduce
GDP growth on both sides. Paci c will raise a small amount of revenue for the Chinese
government, whose public debt is growing. Once again, our supporting models are not
designed to make accurate economic forecasts. We also do not consider the potential impact
on US monetary policy, which could be tightened or loosened in response to trade disputes.
One nal note: We also calculate the impact of the tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the
US, totaling about $500 billion, so $300 billion on top of the $200 billion that may have
already been taxed.

Cita
https://fgx.com/us-china-trade-war-impacts-the-channel/?
gclid=CjwKCAiA6seQBhAfEiwAvPqu13Eze36XZeHTMFQ3EbusUB7JoQvNYGVxlSiXOamHks
Zy6SnRpr8kPBoCfQ4QAvD_BwE

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https://www.savills.com/impacts/market-trends/the-impacts-of-the-us-china-trade-war.html

https://www.ft.com/brandsuite/cme-group/trade-war-costs-consumers-companies-nations/
index.html

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