Evaluating Impact:

Turning Promises into Evidence

Afghanistan Rural Enterprise
Development Program (AREDP)
Shafiullah Rasikh, Qazi Azmat Isa, Ghizaal Haress,
Naila Ahmed, Wali Ibrahimi (Moderator Abdu)

Kathmandu, Nepal
February 2010
KEY ISSUES:

 75% of population live in rural areas where

agriculture is the primary activity;
 High unemployment rates and unskilled
labor force;
 Shortage ofbusiness planning,
management, and marketing know-how;
and access to formal credit
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PROJECT DESCRIPTION

PDO:
To improve employment opportunities and income
of rural men and women; and sustainability of
targeted local enterprises

Program Components:
 (a) Community-led Enterprise Development;
 (b) Small and Medium Enterprise Development;

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 Initiate savings Form and register
groups and monitor Village Savings and
internal lending Loan Associations Seed grant
to mature
VSLAs
Initiate enterprise BDS delivery and
groups and develop VSLA lending to
enterprise plans enterprise groups
Situation analysis
and value chain
assessment
Identify SMEs and Inventory and
Initiate financial contract of BDS
literacy with SMEs providers
Innovation
awards
Identify Partial Commercial bank
Guarantee lending and BDS
Administrator delivery to SMEs

Discussion with banks

to identify support
need
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2. Results Chain
Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Long-term
Outcomes

Human Community 30% of CDCs in a Well-governed  Unemployment

Resources; mobilization province organized community groups; decreased
into groups (35 %
 Financial  Net revenues
female)
Resources increased for SMEs
Delivery of technical 70% of groups Improved savings &
-Livelihood support and federate to VSLAs, inter-loaning and Incomes
grants to the facilitation access to formal credit increased for the
comm unities  80% of VSLAs households
by community groups
receive grants and
- Partial linked to MFIs; Women
Guarantee Empowered
Funds for Business Development 750 SMEs  Employment
Services to SMEs supported by the increased through Increased private
SMEs
project; SMEs sector investment;

 SMEs accessing  Improved

more financial productivity and
resources economic stability;

 High net revenues

to SMEs 5
3. Primary Research Questions

 Q1: Did AREDP have an impact on increasing incomes of

participating households?

 Q2: Did AREDP increase women participation in enterprise

activities?

 Q3: Did the Business Development Services under AREDP

have an impact on increasing net revenues of local
enterprises?

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4. Outcome Indicators
 Number of Well-governed community groups
 Percentage of groups demonstrating improved
savings & access to formal credit;
 At least 30% increase in employment through
SMEs
 SMEs accessing loans from financial institutions
and have at least 50% higher net revenues

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5. Identification Strategy/Method
 Selection of Communities:
 STAGE 1: NSP covers 75% of Afghanistan with est. 22,000 CDCs;
 STAGE 2: Roll-out: YR1 7 Provinces; YR2  Contingent on funding and
performance to roll-out to all 34 Provinces;
 Selection criteria: security, better entrepreneurial opportunities;

 STAGE 3: Districts and villages will be selected.

 Selection criteria: accessibility, better performing CDCs, and demand
for project;
 STAGE 4: Households self select into Program:
 Selection criteria: Interest to participate, ability to save.

 STAGE 5: AREDP community groups form as savings or enterprise groups.

 Selection of SME’s:
 Baseline survey of 1708 SMEs in 33 Provinces (2008);
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Identification Strategy/Method
Criteria

FUNDING Potential
7 selected 27 counterfactual:
provinces remaining
provinces
At each stage,
there are
potential
e.g. Accessibility
members of
Selected Remainin
Districts g Districts
communities who
would have been
benefited from
the Program but
e.g. CDC
have been left
performance out due to
Selected Remaining
Villages several reasons.
Villages

Treatment Potential Control Groups

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5. Identification Strategy/Method

 Random Sample of non-participants will be drawn

from potential control groups;

 Impact Evaluation Method

 With respect to the Community groups: Q1 and Q2:
Matching
 With respect to the SMEs: Q3: Difference in difference

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6. Sample and data
 Sample selection and Size
 Universe: Avg. 1000 CDCs per Province under NSP; 7000
CDCs are our universe  from which AREDP will select
30% (2000 CDCs);
 Size: Consultation with the Central Statistics Office to
determine a nationally representative sample size;
 Data Collection Method
 Quantitative methods: Design questionnaires to capture
Household, Community and SME data;
 Qualitative methods: To capture process related information:
stakeholders include elected reps. Focus group discussions,

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 7. Time Frame/Work Plan
 Timeframe:
 Baseline: 2010
 Mid-term review: 2012
 Final survey: 2015
 Process monitoring (throughout)
 Work plan (e.g. activity: survey implementation and data analysis)
 Consultative process to include variety of stakeholders;
 Design of survey instruments
 Pre-testing survey instruments
 Contracting of survey firm
 Survey equipment, tools
 Full survey implementation
 Post survey (data cleaning, verification)
 Analysis to answer Q1, Q2 and Q3
 Report writing
 Dissemination 12
8. Sources of Financing
 Approx. 2% of project cost which is in the project budget.
Approx. $1.5 million
 Other possible funding.

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