Peptides

7/18/22, 10:30 AM Stock Ideas Based on Data Mined from Technical Publications - A Look Into Peptides | Smartkarma
Bullish Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology and Life Sciences
Stock Ideas Based on Data

Mined from Technical
Publications - A Look Into
Peptides
Thematic (Sector/Industry)
Published on Tue, 5 Oct 2021 23:15 by Pyari Menon
 Pyari has highlighted this Insight as a Top Pick
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In technical publications like patents and research papers, cross-

references are made to existing patents and research papers. We
believe these mentions and citations can provide valuable insights
into the views and impressions of experts in the specific innovations
and technologies within a sector and hence the likelihood of success.
In this report (which is the first one we are publishing) we have

crawled through more than ten years of publications (several
thousand) to analyze a subset in the Lifesciences space namely
PEPTIDES. Needless to say the same can be done with respect to
other technological areas in other sectors as well.
We backtested our methodology (dating three years back) to look for

any specific actionable idea the analysis might throw up. We noted
that among the small or mid-cap stocks that screened well half were
acquired over the next three years
https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/stock-ideas-based-on-data-mined-from-technical-publications-a-look-into-peptides 1/16
Specific to this report we highlight over ten companies that are likely
acquisition targets over the next three years. Within those, two
companies that screen very well based purely on data mined from the
publications and our parameters of number of innovations, number
of citations, Recency, and Impact are a Germany based Nasdaq
listed - Immatics (IMTX) and US-based Coherus (CHRS)
DETAIL
Background
Since this is the first report I am publishing on Smartkarma I start off

with a brief introduction on what I will be publishing about and I will
quickly try to highlight the specific value add that the report may
bring to the reader.
Introduction
All of us who have worked or invested in markets know that markets

and stocks reflect one of the largest composite bodies of knowledge.
We spend a significant amount of our time analyzing financials, the
economic backdrop, and sector macro trends and investigating
management quality only to very often realize that much of our
analysis has been quite effortlessly already priced into the stocks.
Yet there are times when we find stocks where valuations don’t seem
to make sense based on the financials and trade at inexplicable
valuations only to later realize that the valuations we thought were
too high in hindsight were actually not just reasonable but in fact,
were conservative given how the company’s business evolved.
These often happen as technological innovations which sometimes

have not been discussed at all by financial analysts or not factored in
by markets start to gain traction two, three, or five years later and
start to have strategic implications for individual companies and
sometimes industries as a whole.
What the reports will help with: The analysis will be useful for the
early detection and tracking of any technology trends, especially
identifying the companies that seem to have an edge in a specific
technology and have a high probability of coming up with successful
products two to five years into the future. In short, the analysis will
help the reader with insights that don’t show up on the balance
sheet, P&L, or conference call transcripts. We do not do a deep dive
into a company’s specific technology in part because we cannot
possibly understand technologies in every sector in an in-depth way
and we hope to publish on various sectors. We make our judgment
call based on citations and mentions by industry experts who
are focused on the field.
What the report cannot help with: Since the discussions are
mostly about competitive positioning in specific areas of technology
and there are no discussions on sales and profits, operational
efficiencies, products, or specific events. The report is unlikely to
shed any insight on a company’s short term outlook. As discussed
earlier we do not do a deep dive into a company’s specific technology,
so there are no detailed discussions on a company or industry
technology, we are just counting on the mentions by experts in the
field.
Mining publications to understand who is leading in

innovations and breakthroughs
R&D spending is not a good proxy because it is likely priced in:

Historically R&D spending has been used as a proxy to evaluate
competitive advantage for companies from a technology standpoint,
but like other financial details everyone in the market knows what
the R&D spend is and thus is very likely priced in. Additionally, while
spending and technological innovations can have important strategic
implications, not all technology spending is strategically beneficial
and money spent could well have been wasteful.
Data mining opinion of the experts: One of the ways we thought

we could analyze the real technological progress of a specific
company with respect to specific technologies was to data-mine and
count the number of innovations of a company in a specific area and
assess the views of a large number of experts in the specific areas of
technology are with respect to the innovation made by a company.
We could then rank the quality and extent of innovations of various
companies in a specific area. So we wrote an algorithm that basically
counts the number of positive mentions made by experts in a specific
area of a company’s innovations. We scroll through several
thousands of publications done by people working in the same area
where the innovation is happening for basing our count.
Brief illustration on how it works
We have broken down the data from publication for over twenty years
across industries and sectors and broken down the data into specific
subsectors and technologies. For the first publication, we have picked
a sub-area in the “life sciences” category namely “peptides”.
Peptides: The first area we chose as an example was in life sciences

and we chose to analyse companies that were involved in a subset
called “peptides”. Peptides are strings of amino acids, which are the
"building blocks" of proteins. Some of them are used in medications
for conditions ranging from diabetes to multiple sclerosis to cancer.
Peptides in pharmacology is a relatively new trend but seeing growth

particularly in therapeutic development and constantly seeing
innovation. Due to the high selectivity and efficacy of peptides in
drug development, there is an increased interest in peptides in
pharmaceutical research and development.
pharmaceutical research and development.

Subcategories antibodies and Tumour related: Since the number
of companies and the number of innovations being made are large we
thought an analysis illustrating how we could break down the
“Peptides” area into a couple of subgroups might be useful. We have
hence below given illustrations for 1) peptides as a whole, 2) peptides
being used in the field of antibody research, and 3) Peptides used to
target tumors.
Similar analysis can be done for most sectors and will be especially
useful for sectors seeing lots of innovations and research.
For each group, we first carried out an analysis identifying companies

that would have screened out if we ran the analysis three years ago
and checked out what happened to those companies with respect to
performance subsequently. Many companies we note were bought
out, most had positive share price performance and a relatively small
number had underperformance.
Running the first analysis for Peptides as a whole
Firstly we carry out our analysis for the entire category of peptides.
There are over three hundred companies small and big, public and
private meaningfully involved in various technologies that directly
develop peptides or develop peripheral technologies related to
peptides like methods to deliver them, store them or analyze them.
Additionally, there are over a hundred more companies that are
marginally involved in the area as well.
With our algorithm, we are able to identify hundreds of companies

public and private, in the area of peptides (in this case) whose
technologies have been discussed and published.
technologies have been discussed and published.

Since all the companies may not be of interest to an investor we are
able to then screen them depending on various criteria. In this case,
we have selected five criteria to rank how well these companies are
positioned as listed in the table below.
Identifying the important factors: Specifically for this sample we

have analyzed the potential technological advantage to include 1)
number of mentions in publications 2) the variety of innovations that
get mentioned 3) when were the mentions made and to which
innovations were
the mentions made – the later the better 4) Likely impact of the
innovation.
All of the above parameters are derived based on data from references
made by publishers in the sector
Backtesting just this one time (three years ago) and what the
results show: The first table below indicates which companies would
have ranked at the top in the area of “peptides” if the same analysis
was done three years ago. As can be expected many are large-cap
companies, but interestingly there are many smaller companies as
well that are punching well above their weight. Larger companies
have diverse businesses and exceeding large with innovations across
different technologies, so evaluating them to a narrow field might not
be optimal, though the analysis will indicate how well they are
positioned in the specific area analyzed.
What we notice from the backtesting
We note that out of the top twenty names six have been acquired over
the last three years (BOLD ITALICS). However, if you focus on the
smaller names we notice that over half of the companies have been
acquired and clearly for their technology
Table 1 Top twenty based on data from publications UPTO

THREE YEARS AGO for all of “peptides”.
Company Innovation Positive Recency Impact Weighted

Score Mention score Score
Score
AbbVie (ABBV US) 28 45 35 174 282
REGENERON 30 21 30 63 143
PHARMACEUTICALS
INC.
Genentech Inc. 27 15 17 53 112
Bristol-Myers Squibb 16 14 16 59 104

Company
Immunomedics Inc. 15 15 16 57 103
Moderna Therapeutics 5 30 0 61 96
Inc.
Pharmacyclics LLC 5 29 0 59 93
AMGEN INC. 15 15 10 47 87
IMMUNOGEN INC. 10 8 10 39 67
Novartis AG 16 10 15 23 64
Coherus BioSciences 4 9 7 43 64
Inc.
Kymab Limited 9 6 15 33 63
ZYMOGENETICS INC. 8 8 4 41 61
IMMATICS 8 7 11 29 55
BIOTECHNOLOGIES
GMBH
NGM 5 6 7 35 54
Biopharmaceuticals
Inc.
Pfizer Inc. 6 6 5 27 44
OncoMed 7 6 4 25 44
Pharmaceuticals Inc.
HOFFMANN-LA 8 4 8 20 40
ROCHE INC.
Janssen Biotech Inc. 8 6 6 20 39
Allergan Sales LLC 8 6 4 20 38
How do the rankings look now in the area of Peptides?
Below we provide a table similar to the one above based on screening

companies based on current positive mentions in publications in the
area of “peptides”. There is significant overlap, which suggests some
form of continuity, but the relative positions have changed. New
companies that have made the cut include Rani Therapeutics,
Conagen Inc, Protagonist Therapeutics, Factor Biosciences, and
CytomX.
Some of the larger companies like AbbVie, Roche, Bristol-Myer have

a strong lead in the field but “peptides” as a percentage of their
innovation is relatively small. It is interesting to see Moderna as one
of the leaders in "peptides". Clearly, the COVID vaccine was what
drove up the stock over the last year but more importantly, as the
table shows they were well-positioned to benefit from the situation.
Table 2 Top twenty based on data from publications for

“peptides” (current)
Company Innovation Positive Recency Impact Weighted Peptide

Score Mention score Score Score as
Score percenta
of
innovati
(last 1
years)
Abbvie Inc (ABBV 22 30 21 60 133 20%

US)
Bristol Myers 16 24 19 27 85 13%

Squibb Co (BMY
US)
Moderna Inc 8 19 0 56 82 46%

(MRNA US)
Roche Holding AG 30 11 10 21 72 8%
(ROG SW)
Coherus 4 18 12 35 68 50%
Biosciences (CHRS
US)
Regeneron 24 13 19 12 68 36%
Pharmaceuticals
(REGN US)
Immatics NV (IMTX 8 11 30 18 66 16%

US)
Gilead Sciences 12 12 16 18 58 16%

(GILD US)
Amgen Inc (AMGN 12 5 7 20 43 17%

US)
Immunogen Inc 8 5 12 12 37 48%

(IMGN US)
Sanofi (SAN FP) 8 8 11 9 36 13%
Rani Therapeutics 2 7 5 20 34 26%

Holdings (RANI
US)
Conagen
(1741355D US)
Protagonist 2 5 7 14 28 94%
Therapeutics (PTGX
US)
NGM 4 8 3 12 27 67%
Biopharmaceuticals
Inc (NGM US)
Factor Biosciences 1 5 6 12 24 26%
CyntomX 4 2 7 11 23 69%
Therapeutics
GlaxoSmithKline 6 4 8 5 23 20%
PLC (GSK US)
AstraZeneca PLC 7 5 11 2 24 10%

(AZN SS)
Bottom Line:
We saw in Table 1 several names like Immunomedics, Pharmacyclics,

Kymab, Zymogenetics, which screened well three years ago in terms
of innovations were acquired by larger companies. Similarly, some of
the ones we highlight in bold in Table 2 are well-positioned to be
acquired or over the next few years deliver exceptional returns. The
nine names we highlight between them are were responsible for
about 10% of all patents filed over the last five years in the area
of peptides, which is relatively large given some very large players
and several hundreds of companies operating in this area.
We do not do a deep dive into each company and that would be

dilutive to this exercise. We also recognize that scientific promise
does not necessarily translate into a successful product or business
performance. In the area of biotechnology in particular many of the
innovations that sounds great – in this case, they relate to curing
cancer, alleviating pain, treating neurodegenerative disease,
delivering biologics in pills (instead of injections), may not deliver on
the potential if they face setbacks in trials or meet regulatory
roadblocks.
But the sample is large enough and the innovations based on citations by
professionals who work in the industry seem to make a strong case that
some of the names above will deliver in a big way over the next 2-3 years.
From a pure numbers perspective,Immatics (IMTX) and Coherus
(CHRS) stand out.
Getting into a subgroup - Peptides role in antibodies
Some investors might want to focus on narrow areas sometimes. For

example, in this case, they might focus on applications with regards
to antibodies rather than all the peptides.
to antibodies rather than all the peptides.

Last year President Trump received an antibody cocktail made by
Regeneron. While such monoclonal antibody treatments (for which
we have data) there is research for using synthetic peptides that are
much smaller for treatments as well.
Below we provide a table similar to the one above based on screening

companies based on current positive mentions in publications in the
area of “peptide antibodies”. Like in the earlier table we have
highlighted in bold names we believe that have IP well ahead of their
size which could over the next three years deliver high returns.
Table 3 Top twenty based on data from publications for “peptide

antibodies” (current)

Score
Abbvie 23 30 30 90 173
Roche 30 8 27 36 102
Bristol-Myers 12 14 21 30 77
REGENERON 20 7 19 23 69
PHARMACEUTICALS
INC.
Gilead 13 8 20 21 62
Coherus BioSciences 4 12 15 18 50
Inc.
IMMUNOGEN INC. 8 4 15 16 43
Sanofi 9 6 14 14 42
AMGEN INC. 11 3 9 16 39
Astrazeneca 11 5 21 0 37
Novartis AG 8 2 9 5 24
NGM 3 5 3 12 24
Biopharmaceuticals
Inc.
OncoMed 6 1 4 10 22
OncoMed 6 1 4 10 22
Pharmaceuticals Inc.
CytomX Therapeutics 4 1 9 8 22
Inc.
Prothena Corp (PRTA 2 2 8 7 20

US)
Rani Therapeutics LLC 2 3 6 9 19
Janssen Biotech Inc. 5 1 5 7 19

(J&J)
ALDERBIO HOLDINGS 4 1 6 6 17
LLC
Pfizer Inc. 3 1 5 7 16
Xencor Inc (XNCR US) 4 1 4 6 16
Getting into a sub of the subgroup - Peptides role in antibodies

related to tumors
We have narrowed down the “peptide antibody” search further to

“peptide antibodies related to tumors”
This is partly for the purpose of illustrating how the model allows an
investor to go into specific technologies to see who the leading
players in a specific area are. For example, an investor might read an
article that discusses how peptide immunization for tumors is fast-
growing area with chances of great success because allows for greater
control on the specificity and affinity and has the ability to penetrate
solid tumors, due to low molecular weight versus standard
antibodies. The model will allow the investor to shortlist a much
smaller focused set of companies as the below table indicates.
Table 4 Top twenty based on data from publications for “peptide

tumors” (current).


Score
Roche 26 12 0 90 128
Gilead 30 7 15 30 82
Toray Industries (3402 9 0 0 30 39

JP)
INNATE PHARMA 2 4 15 10 31
Astrazeneca 4 0 0 20 24
Samsung Biologics 2 7 0 10 19
IMMATICS 2 2 15 0 19
BIOTECHNOLOGIES
GMBH
Allakos Inc. 2 2 15 0 19
Longhorn Vaccines and 2 5 0 10 17

Diagnostics LLC
Pfizer Inc. 4 2 0 10 16
KYOWA HAKKO KIRIN 4 0 0 10 14

CO. LTD.
Oxford BioTherapeutics 4 0 0 10 14
Ltd
AbbVie 2 0 0 10 12
Bristol-Myers 2 0 0 10 12
While there is some overlap as we go into specific niches we notice

new names including private unlisted companies Longhorn and
Oxford Bio making the cut.
Conclusion
We have analyzed and presented evaluations of companies using

citations of specific technologies and companies in technical
publications. In the fast-changing “Life Sciences” space the analysis
seems to be very useful in identifying possible winners and
acquisition targets even without digging deep into the financials or
technologies because experts in the field have opined about it by
referencing these names and innovations in publications
Our database and algorithms will allow for analysis of most industries
on a broad or a granular level to derive insights and relative
competitive positioning of companies within an industry with respect
to specific technologies. So if you want to know who the leaders are
with respect to technologies in “Climate Change” we can dig it up for
you. If you are keen only on who leads in “climate change as related
to transportation” we can do that as well or for that matter “climate
change in processing industry” or for that matter “climate change
and housing appliances” and so on.
The analysis is unique and different. We hope it helps and welcome

feedback on this note and the ones to follow in other sectors.
DISCLOSURE & CERTIFICATION
I/We have no position(s) in any of the securities referenced in this Insight.
Views expressed in this Insight accurately reflects my/our personal opinion(s) about
the referenced securities and issuers and/or other subject matter as appropriate.
This Insight does not contain and is not based on any non-public, material
information.
To the best of my/our knowledge, the views expressed in this Insight comply with
Singapore law as well as applicable law in the country from which it is posted.
I/We have not been commissioned to write this Insight or hold any specific opinion
on the securities referenced therein.
I/We have signed the Insight Provider Agreement and this Insight does not violate
any of the terms specified therein.
This Insight is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide
financial, investment or other professional advice. It should not be construed as an
offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security.
— Pyari Menon (5 October 2021)

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7/18/22, 10:30 AM Stock Ideas Based on Data Mined from Technical Publications - A Look Into Peptides | Smartkarma

Bullish Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology and Life Sciences

Stock Ideas Based on Data

 Pyari has highlighted this Insight as a Top Pick

In technical publications like patents and research papers, cross-

In this report (which is the first one we are publishing) we have

We backtested our methodology (dating three years back) to look for

Since this is the first report I am publishing on Smartkarma I start off

All of us who have worked or invested in markets know that markets

These often happen as technological innovations which sometimes

Mining publications to understand who is leading in

R&D spending is not a good proxy because it is likely priced in:

Data mining opinion of the experts: One of the ways we thought

Brief illustration on how it works

Peptides: The first area we chose as an example was in life sciences

Peptides in pharmacology is a relatively new trend but seeing growth

pharmaceutical research and development.

For each group, we first carried out an analysis identifying companies

Running the first analysis for Peptides as a whole

With our algorithm, we are able to identify hundreds of companies

technologies have been discussed and published.

Identifying the important factors: Specifically for this sample we

What we notice from the backtesting

Table 1 Top twenty based on data from publications UPTO

Company Innovation Positive Recency Impact Weighted

AbbVie (ABBV US) 28 45 35 174 282

Genentech Inc. 27 15 17 53 112

Bristol-Myers Squibb 16 14 16 59 104

Immunomedics Inc. 15 15 16 57 103

Janssen Biotech Inc. 8 6 6 20 39

Allergan Sales LLC 8 6 4 20 38

How do the rankings look now in the area of Peptides?

Below we provide a table similar to the one above based on screening

Some of the larger companies like AbbVie, Roche, Bristol-Myer have

Table 2 Top twenty based on data from publications for

Company Innovation Positive Recency Impact Weighted Peptide

Abbvie Inc (ABBV 22 30 21 60 133 20%

Bristol Myers 16 24 19 27 85 13%

Moderna Inc 8 19 0 56 82 46%

Immatics NV (IMTX 8 11 30 18 66 16%

Gilead Sciences 12 12 16 18 58 16%

Amgen Inc (AMGN 12 5 7 20 43 17%

Immunogen Inc 8 5 12 12 37 48%

Sanofi (SAN FP) 8 8 11 9 36 13%

Rani Therapeutics 2 7 5 20 34 26%

Factor Biosciences 1 5 6 12 24 26%

AstraZeneca PLC 7 5 11 2 24 10%

We saw in Table 1 several names like Immunomedics, Pharmacyclics,

We do not do a deep dive into each company and that would be

Getting into a subgroup - Peptides role in antibodies

Some investors might want to focus on narrow areas sometimes. For

to antibodies rather than all the peptides.

Below we provide a table similar to the one above based on screening

Table 3 Top twenty based on data from publications for “peptide

Company Innovation Positive Recency Impact Weighted

Prothena Corp (PRTA 2 2 8 7 20

Rani Therapeutics LLC 2 3 6 9 19

Janssen Biotech Inc. 5 1 5 7 19

Xencor Inc (XNCR US) 4 1 4 6 16

Getting into a sub of the subgroup - Peptides role in antibodies

We have narrowed down the “peptide antibody” search further to

Table 4 Top twenty based on data from publications for “peptide

Company Innovation Positive Recency Impact Weighted