Professional Documents
Culture Documents
27th 2023
Seriously? Yes
Donald Trump’s chances of a comeback are uncomfortably high
A glitch-plagued chat with Elon Musk, live on Twitter, is an
unconventional way to launch a presidential campaign. But
with the entry of Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis (see Lexing
Bernie Sanders, a leftist. Backroom manoeuvring by party big
wigs is less likely to work against Mr Trump, however, for the
simple reason that he is the Republican establishment.
ton), the race for the Republican nomination is now properly The way the primary calendar and pending legal cases
under way. The first states will not vote until January. Primaries against Mr Trump intersect is nightmarish. His trial for falsify
are hard to predict, because it is expensive to conduct enough ing records in New York will get under way shortly after Super
highquality polls of primary voters in the key states. But, with Tuesday, when more than a dozen states vote (see United States
that disclaimer over, one candidate has a huge, perhaps insur section). Neither this case nor any of the other investigations he
mountable, lead: Donald Trump. Mr Trump thus has a real faces are likely to be resolved by the time the primaries are over.
chance of becoming America’s next president. Betting markets It is therefore possible that the candidate of one of the two great
put his odds of returning to the White House at one in three. parties could be subject to criminal charges when he is on the
If you decided to pay less attention to Mr Trump after he lost ballot. America has had badly behaved presidents before. It has
in 2020, to preserve your sanity, you may be wondering how this never had one who is also the defendant in a criminal trial.
can be the case. Parties do not usually stick with losers. Mr You might think that, at this point, voters would abandon Mr
Trump led the Republicans to defeats in the 2018 midterm and Trump in large numbers. Maybe. But when, earlier this year, a ju
the 2020 presidential elections. After he encouraged his suppor ry found that he had sexually abused a woman 30 years ago, the
ters to “stop the steal”, some of them broke into Congress, with verdict had no measurable effect on his poll numbers. Mr
the result that one police officer died of a stroke and four com Trump, it turns out, is adept at persuading Republican voters
mitted suicide. He has since been found liable for sexual assault, that he is the real victim. Democrats, and plenty of America’s al
too. Would the Republican Party really nominate him again? lies, think Mr Trump is a threat to democracy (as does this news
Yes, it probably would. In 2016 and in 2020 it made some paper). His campaign is already turning this accusation back on
sense to think of the Trump movement as a hostile takeover of the accuser: “The 2024 election”, a recent Trump campaign
the party. In 2023 it no longer does. He is the frontrunner be email announced, “will determine whether we can keep our Re
cause a large proportion of Republicans really public or whether America has succumbed to
like him. His supporters have had their hands the dark forces of tyranny.” Those who accept
on the Republican National Committee for six that these are the stakes will probably overlook
years now. More than half of Republicans in the Mr Trump’s innumerable and obvious flaws.
House of Representatives were elected for the Imagine, then, that it is November 2024 and
first time since 2016, and therefore under Mr Mr Trump and President Biden are having a re
Trump’s banner. Almost all of those House and match—the first since Dwight Eisenhower beat
Senate Republicans who refused to make their Adlai Stevenson back in the 1950s. Could Mr
peace with him have stood down or retired. Of Trump win?
the ten House members who voted to impeach Mr Trump in Jan The general election will surely be close. The electoral college
uary 2021, only two are still there. They are outnumbered in their gives Republicans a slight edge. The most recent landslide was
own caucus by more than 100 to 1. 40 years ago. America has since become evenly divided politi
Mr Trump’s campaign is also better organised than in either cally and calcified because voters seldom switch sides. Mr Biden
2016 or 2020. Our analysis of the primaries shows how hard he has some underappreciated strengths, but he is no one’s idea of
will be to beat (see Briefing). He has a stunning lead: polling for formidable. Were the country to enter a recession, Mr Trump’s
The Economist by YouGov suggests Republican primary voters chances would go up. Some mooted postprimary tactics intend
prefer Mr Trump to Mr DeSantis by 33 percentage points. He also ed to stop him, such as running a thirdparty candidate, smack
has a big lead in endorsements from elected Republicans, which of desperation: they could easily backfire and boost him further.
are usually a good predictor of what will happen. In 2016, the last
time Mr Trump contested a primary, he won the early primaries Prima Donald
with much less support than he has now. All of which means that you should take seriously the possibility
There are still Republican voters who would like an alterna that America’s next president will be someone who would divide
tive—his 58% poll share means that close to half of primary the West and delight Vladimir Putin; who accepts the results of
voters must be open to choosing someone else. Yet the difficul elections only if he wins; who calls the thugs who broke into the
ties of coordinating the opposition to Mr Trump are daunting. Capitol on January 6th 2021 martyrs and wants to pardon them;
People close to the Trump campaign say privately that the more who has proposed defaulting on the national debt to spite Mr Bi
candidates who enter the primary, dividing the field, the better den; and who is under multiple investigations for breaking
for their candidate. Some big donors are giving money to non criminal law, to add to his civillaw rap sheet for sexual assault.
Trump candidates on the condition that they drop out after Anyone who cares about America, about democracy, about con
South Carolina, an early primary, if told to do so. The idea is to servatism or about decency should hope that Mr DeSantis or one
engineer unity around a single nonTrump candidate, just as es of the other nonTrump Republican candidates can defy the
tablishment Democrats united around Joe Biden in 2020 to stop odds and beat him. n
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Briefing The Republican primary The Economist May 27th 2023
neckandneck among primary voters.
Six months later it is Mr DeSantis who
has been stumbling. He has been criticised
as an isolationist for dismissing the war in
Ukraine as a mere “territorial dispute”, as
an anticorporatist for picking fights with
Disney and as an extremist for signing a
ban on abortion beyond six weeks of preg
nancy. Mr Trump, meanwhile, has reco
vered his step, making a triumphant return
to the campaign trail. He and his team have
spent months pummelling Mr DeSantis. In
retrospect, the governor’s decision to wait
until Florida’s legislature had completed
its annual session earlier this month be
fore announcing his candidacy looks like a
miscalculation, although the delay was in
part to allow lawmakers to pass a bill per
mitting him to run for president without
resigning as governor. During the long in
terlude he has endured a protracted beat
ing on the airwaves without offering much
defence. It is as if Brutus had overslept on
the Ides of March, giving Julius Caesar a
chance to put on his armour, but had tried
to proceed with his hit job all the same. The
plot to overthrow Mr Trump, which once
seemed plausible, now looks forlorn.
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The Economist May 27th 2023 Briefing The Republican primary 19
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20 Briefing The Republican primary The Economist May 27th 2023
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United States The Economist May 27th 2023 33
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34 United States The Economist May 27th 2023
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38 United States The Economist May 27th 2023
Lexington Florida man
Ron DeSantis is a more formidable ideologue, if a lesser politician, than Donald Trump
tablishment Republicans. Then came Donald Trump. He rolled ov
er Jeb Bush with a message of contempt for elites and the institu
tions they dominated. They were all corrupt, dispensing money
and privilege to insiders, and only he could fix it.
Mr DeSantis shares Mr Trump’s lack of humility but not his lack
of discipline and understanding of government. A Harvard lawyer
who served in Iraq and then for three terms in Congress, Mr
DeSantis is the thinking Republican’s populist. He shares with
progressives a conviction about the primacy of “narrative” in en
trenching power. But he argues that the left has taken control of
America’s core narratives through undemocratic means, by seiz
ing cultural and corporate institutions, and is telling stories that
warp young minds and curtail freedom. America’s institutions are
not just corrupt; they are insidiously corrupting.
More clearly than Mr Trump, Mr DeSantis has defined an ideo
logical foe to rally conservatives and provided them with a plan to
fight back. In his telling, leftist ideology has infiltrated the federal
bureaucracy, public schools, universities, news media and major
corporations in much the way conservatives once feared commu
nism had. “Because most major institutions in American life have
become thoroughly politicised, protecting people from the impo
sition of leftist ideology requires more than just defeating leftist
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