Society for American Archaeology

Dates Are Not Just Data: Paleolithic Settlement Patterns in Siberia Derived from Radiocarbon
Records
Author(s): Yaroslav V. Kuzmin and Susan G. Keates
Source: American Antiquity, Vol. 70, No. 4 (Oct., 2005), pp. 773-789
Published by: Society for American Archaeology
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40035874
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 DATES ARE NOT JUST DATA: PALEOLITHIC SETTLEMENT
PATTERNS IN SIBERIA DERIVED FROM RADIOCARBON RECORDS

YaroslavV. Kuzminand Susan G. Keates

The large radiocarbon database now establishedfor Paleolithic sites in Siberia and the Russian Far East can be used to
build up a picture of relativepopulation size in these regions. Weconsider the timeperiod ofca. 46,000 to 12,000 B.P.for
which we have assembled and critically studied437 radiocarbondates. All datesfrom individualsites thatfall within 1,000
14C
years are consideredas a single event and called occupation episode. The results of our analysis show that the number
of14C dates until ca. 28,000 B.P. is small and increases at ca. 28,000-20,000 B.P, and dates decrease infrequencyfor the
ca. 20,000-16,000 B.P. time range. It is after ca. 16,000 B.P that we see a substantial rise in the numberofI4C dates. In
termsof the relativesize of SiberianPaleolithic populations based on thefrequency of occupation episodes, population den-
sity was small until ca. 36,000 B.P. Subsequently,population size increased gradually at ca. 36,000-16,000 B.P, and the
growth rate became almost exponential at ca. 16,000-12,000 B.P. The numberof occupationsfrom ca. 20,000 to 18,000
B.P did not decrease, running counter to argumentsthat Siberia was completely or considerably depopulatedduring the
Last Glacial Maximum.

La gran base de datos de radiocarbonoahora establecidapara sitios Paleoliticos en Siberiay el LejanoOrienteruso sepuede
usar para construiruna idea del tamaho relativo de la poblacion en estas regiones.Analizamosel periodo de c. 46,000 a
12,000 a.P. en el cual hemos contandoy estudiadocriticamente437 fechas de radiocarbono.Todaslasfechas de sitios indi-
vidualesque caen dentrode 1,000 ahos 14Cde simismas se consideranparte de un solo eventoy son denominadascomo episo-
dios de ocupacion.Los resultadosde nuestroandlisis muestranque el numerodefechas 14Canteriora c. 28,000 a.P. es pequeho,
crecen de ca. 28,000 a.P. a 20.000 a.P, y que las fechas disminuyenen frecuencia en el periodo c. 20,000 a 16,000 a.P. De
hecho, es hasta c. 16,000 a.P. que se ve un crecimientoenfechas de I4C.En terminosdel tamahorelativode poblaciones siberi-
anas del periodo Paleolitico basado en la frecuencia de episodios de ocupacion, la densidad de la poblacion era pequeha
hasta c. 36,000 a.P. Posteriormente,el tamahode la poblacion crecio gradualmenteen el periodo de c. 36,000 a 16,000 a.P,
y el crecimientose aproximaa un nivel exponencialen el periodo c. 16,000 a 12,000 a.P. El numerode casos de ocupacion
de c. 20,000 a 18,000 a.P. tambiencrece, contradiciendoel argumentode que Siberia estaba completamenteo considerable-
menteabandonadadurantela UltimaGlaciacion Maxima.

of humanssettlingthe Old and New as originaldata for analysisof generaloccupation

Worlds using radiocarbon (14C) dating
emerged as an importantpart of archaeo-
logicalresearchin the 1960s.Examplesof this are
the largedatabaseof 14Cdatesthatmadeit possi-
ble firstto identifythe mainpatternsof the initial
peopling of the New World (e.g., Fiedel 2002;
Haynes 1992;Hoffeckeret al. 1993), and lateron
to modeltheprocessesof colonization(e.g.,Ander-
son andGillam2000; Steeleet al. 1998;Youngand
Bettinger1995).In the late 1980s,the firstattempt
of numericalanalysisof 14Cdate series was car-
riedout(Rick1987),withanemphasison 14Cdates
patterns.When significantamountsof 14Cdeter-
minationsareavailableforearlyprehistoriccultural
complexesworldwide,the applicationof 14Cdates
thus acquiresa new meaning.We can now try to
establishtheoverallpatternsof populationdynam-
ics, i.e., changes throughtime in the intensityof
humanoccupation.This can bring us towardan
understandingof the relativesize of humanpopu-
lations,althoughwe arefully awareof the factthat
it is a firstdegreeof approximationin Paleolithic
demography.
The aim of this paperis to reconstructthe gen-

Yaroslav V. Kuzmin Pacific Instituteof Geography,FarEasternBranchof the RussianAcademy of Sciences, 7 Radio

St., Vladivostok690041, Russia (ykuzmin@tig.dvo.ru)
Susan G. Keates UniversityVillage, 601 S. ProvidenceRd., Columbia,MO 65203, USA (keats20039@yahoo.co.uk)

AmericanAntiquity,70(4), 2005, pp. 773-789

Copyright©2005 by the Society for AmericanArchaeology

773
774 AMERICANANTIQUITY
eraltrendin the populationdynamicsof Siberiain
the second part of the Late Pleistocene, at ca.
46,000-12,000 14Cyears ago (hereafter- B.P.),
using 14Cdatesas the primaryevidence.Here we
presentthe first-generationresults, after critical
evaluationof the 14Cdatesequencesof individual
SiberianPaleolithicsites.
Siberiaand the RussianFarEast cover a terri-
toryof ca. 13,000,000km2andareamongthemost
importantregionsin theOldWorldto studytheini-
tial peoplingand dynamicsof humanoccupation
in thePaleolithic.Wethereforefocuson Siberiaand
the RussianFarEast as a case studyfor testing a
new methodology in numerical analysis of 14C
datesfromprehistoricsites.Theseregionsarealso
importantfor the studyof the peoplingof the New
World.Because of recentprogressin archaeolog-
ical researchof the key Paleolithiccomplexes in
Siberiaand the RussianFarEast, we now have a
sufficientlylarge body of data to examine settle-
mentpatternsin this region.
Radiocarbon Dates as a Source for
Understanding Population Dynamics
The applicationof 14Cdatafor the studyof human
movements in the late Middle and Upper Pale-
olithicbecamepossiblebeginningin thelate 1960s.
The availabilityof largePleistocene14Cdatabases
in the 1990s enabledresearchersto plot the distri-
bution of individual 14Cmeasurementsthrough
timeforcertainculturalstagesandgeographicareas
in the formof diagrams.This approachcame into
use afterpioneeringworkdoneby Rick(1987).His
assumptionthat"daterecordsarenot truerandom
samples,butwith sufficientnumbersof datesfrom
fairlylargeregions,numeroussites andinvestiga-
tors, the generaltrendsof prehistoricoccupation
should be evident" (Rick 1987:58) was widely
acceptedandused for the studyof occupationpat-
terns.
Analysis of the frequencydistributionof 14C
dates has been conductedto investigate several
issues, suchas the initialpeoplingof theAmericas
(e.g., Haynes 1969), the initial colonization of
Siberia (e.g., Dolukhanov et al. 2002; Goebel
1999), the cause of Neanderthalextinction(e.g.,
Stringeret al. 2003), the origin and spreadof the
Aurignaciancomplex in Europe (e.g., Bocquet-
AppelandDemars2000a;Davies2001;Zilhaoand
[Vol. 70, No. 4, 2005]
d'Errico1999),andthepatternsof the UpperPale-
olithic occupationand re-occupationof Western,
Central,and EasternEurope(e.g., Dolukhanovet
al. 2001; Hoffecker2002;Housleyet al. 1997;Pet-
titt 2000).
So far,it has been less commonto use 14Cdata
forreconstructing thenumberof Pleistoceneoccu-
pationsites throughtime (e.g., Bocquet-Appeland
Demars2000b; Holliday 1997; Strauset al. 2000;
vanAndel,Davies,andWeninger2003;vanAndel,
Davies, Weninger,and Joris2003). These studies
representthe next step in the interpretation
of 14C
records- the elucidationof the main patternsin
population dynamics within certain geographic
regions.In orderto conductsucha study,it is nec-
essaryto havea refinedculturalchronologybased
on both archaeologicalcriteriaand chronometric
information.
It is now possible to reconstructthe dynamic
aspectof humansettlementat the end of the Pleis-
tocene in severalregions of Eurasiabased on the
accumulateddata. We accept that each 14Cdate
producedon a particular organicmaterial(charcoal,
bone, wood, etc.) fromPaleolithicsites represents
evidenceof humanpresence,becausealmostallthe
organicsubstancesfound at the sites were intro-
ducedby humansat the time of site occupation.
As was statedrecently,theuse of thenumberof
occupationsinsteadof the numberof 14Cdatesis
necessary"to look at the 'big picture'in termsof
humandistribution"(Strauset al. 2000:557). For
Siberia,a few attemptswere made previouslyto
determinethemainpatternsof occupationwithref-
erenceto 14Cdates(Dolukhanovet al.2002;Goebel
1999, 2002).
Methods and Materials
AssumptionsUsed in This Study
In orderto conductourstudy,we hadto makesev-
eral assumptions:(1) the 14C-dated sites are a rel-
ativeapproximation of thetotalnumberof sitesthat
existed;(2) the minimaltime spanfor combining
14Cdatesis 1,000 years;(3) at each site the set of
14Cdatesarelumpedintooccupationepisodes.The
reasonsfor these assumptionsare as follows:
Assumption1. Since 1871, severalhundredPale-
olithic sites have been discoveredin Siberia,and
manyof thesewere excavated(see the mostrecent
 REPORTS 775

summaryin Dereviankoet al. 1998)and14C-dated. at ca. 40,000-45,000 B.P. it is about600-800 14C

We acceptthatour 14Cdatabaseis representative years (George S. Burr,personalcommunication
for the purposesof our study.However,a limita- 2004). Similar values are reported by Pettitt
tion exists andis associatedwith the extentof our (2000:22).Thissituationlimitstheprecisionof our
knowledge about the total numberof sites that studyto at least 1,000 14Cyears. Selection of the
existed in the Paleolithic. On the one hand, the 1,000 14Cyearswindowgives us reasonableaccu-
degree of survey of vast territories,especially racy. To be more objective,we also countedthe
NortheasternSiberiaand northernpartsof West- numberof occupationswith 2,000-yearintervals.
ernandEasternSiberia,is still low comparedwith As was recentlyhighlighted,"itdoes notseemfea-
southernSiberia.On the otherhand,severalcare- sible to studythe occupationof an areaas largeas
fully plannedsurvey campaignsover the last 30 Europe with minimumchronologicalunits finer
years found a few dozen sites in remotenorthern thana few thousandyears"(Roebroeks2003:99).
regions (e.g., Dikov 1997; Kiryak et al. 2003; Assumption3. The 14Cdate distributiondia-
Mochanov and Fedoseeva 1985, 1996; Pitulko gramsdo notnecessarilyreflectindividualepisodes
1999;Slobodin2001). Still, thereareonly threeor of occupationin the Paleolithic,becauseat several
four well-documentedFinal Pleistocene sites in sites long series of 14Cdeterminations were
NortheasternSiberia comparedwith at least 15 obtainedfor single culturalcomponents,with up
sites older than ca. 10,000 B.P. in Alaska (e.g., to eight values (layer 19 at Shestakovo)or even
HamiltonandGoebel 1999). more(11 valuesfor layer8 atthe Mal'tasite).This
Assumption2. In orderto arrangethe 14Cdates distortstherealnumberof occupationsthatexisted
intotimewidthintervals,we needto knowthelimit in the past;a similarcaveatwas mentionedby van
of theirprecision,whichis determinedby the stan- Andel,Davies,Weninger,andJoris(2003:27-28).
darddeviation(sigma, a; hereafter - s.d.) of the Inorderto eliminatetheeffectof multiple14Cmea-
instrumentalmeasurementof the numberof 14C surements,we did not averagethembutcombined
atoms.The means.d. for the 417 finitedatesin our them, assumingthatthe lengthof each individual
list is 458 14Cyears.If we excludedateswith a s.d. episodeis less than 1,000 14Cyears.
greaterthan3,000 14Cyears,theaverages.d.of 413 Thus,thedateswithinthe 1,000 14Cyearsinter-
valuesis 423 14Cyears,andfor 402 values with a val were lumped at each site into a single event
s.d. less than2,000 14Cyearsthe mean is 372 14C namedoccupationepisode, regardlessof the fact
years.Thus,valueswiththe largests.d. do not sig- that 14Cdatesmightderivefromdifferentcultural
nificantlyaffect the averagemean of the whole layers. Conversely,if the variationin date series
dataset.Acceptinga ± 1 s.d. intervalwith68.5 per- withina singleculturallayerwasgreaterthan1,000
cent confidence,we have ±916 14Cyears, which 14Cyears,it was countedas two or even moresep-
is very close to a 1,000 14Cyearswindow. arateoccupationepisodes.Veryoften the occupa-
Therefore,we combined individual14Cmea- tion of certainplaces in the Paleolithicof Siberia
surementsinto 1,000 year intervals,regardlessof continuedfor millennia,as is indicatedby multi-
the s.d. of each of the 14Cdates,andcalculatedthe layeredsites in theYeniseiRiverbasin(e.g., Droz-
numberof datesper 1,000 14Cyears(Table1).This dov and Chekha2003; Vasil'ev 2001), and each
makesit possibleto avoidthemajorityof problems occupationepisodein this case shouldbe counted
relatedto the s.d. of individualdates. separately(see below concerningthe wide varia-
Thetechnicalaspectof theaccuracyin 14Cmea- tion of 14Cdate seriesfromthe Paleolithicsites).
surementswithin ca. 10,000-45,000 B.P. should As an example,we illustratethis new approach
also be takeninto account.Forliquidscintillation using the AfontovaGora2 site in EasternSiberia
counting,thes.d.forca. 10,000-20,000B.P.is usu- (Vasil'evet al. 2002:523-524). For layer 2, there
ally about 150 14Cyears, at ca. 35,000 B.P. it is are two 14Cdates: 13,310 ± 140 B.P. (GIN-7542)
about450 years,and at ca. 47,000 B.P. it is about and 14,200 ± 60 B.P. (GrA-5556);for layer 3a,
970 years(LyubovA. Orlova,personalcommuni- therearetwo dates: 13,350 ± 60 B.P. (GIN-7539)
cation 2004). For acceleratormass spectrometry, and 14,330 ± 95 B.P. (SOAN-3077);for layer3b,
the s.d. forca. 10,000-20,000 B.P.is about70-100 thereis one date:13,990 ± 110 B.P.(GrN-22274);
years,at ca. 35,000 B.P.it is about300 years,and for layer4, therearethreedates:13,650 ± 70 B.P.
776 AMERICANANTIQUITY [Vol. 70, No. 4, 2005]

Table 1. Numberof 14CDates and OccupationEpisodes for the SiberianPaleolithic,ca. 46,000-12,000 B.R

Number of Number of % of % of
14CAges, B.R 14CDates Occupations 14CDates Occupations
12,000-13,000 72 28 16.5 10.0
13,000-14,000 46 27 10.5 9.7
14,000-15,000 36 23 8.2 8.3
15,000-16,000 24 19 5.5 6.8
16,000-17,000 15 10 3.4 3.6
17,000-18,000 12 8 2.8 2.9
18,000-19,000 12 9 2.8 3.2
19,000-20,000 11 8 2.5 2.9
20,000-21,000 18 9 4.1 3.2
21,000-22,000 17 9 3.9 3.2
22,000-23,000 14 8 3.2 2.9
23,000-24,000 13 8 3.0 2.9
24,000-25,000 14 9 3.2 3.2
25,000-26,000 12 11 2.7 4.0
26,000-27,000 11 9 2.5 3.2
27,000-28,000 10 6 2.3 2.2
28,000-29,000 6 5 1.4 1.8
29,000-30,000 10 8 2.3 2.9
30,000-31,000 8 7 1.8 2.5
31,000-32,000 9 7 2.1 2.5
32,000-33,000 8 7 1.8 2.5
33,000-34,000 7 6 1.6 2.2
34,000-35,000 12 8 2.8 2.9
35,000-36,000 6 5 1.4 1.8
36,000-37,000 3 3 0.7 1.1
37,000-38,000 6 4 1.4 1.4
38,000-39,000 5 5 1.1 1.8
39,000-40,000 4 3 0.9 1.1
40,000-41,000 3 2 0.7 0.7
41,000-42,000 3 2 0.7 0.7
42,000-43,000 3 1 0.7 0.4
43,000-44,000 5 3 1.1 1.1
44,000-45,000 1 0 0.2 0.0
45,000-46,000 1 1 0.2 0.4
Total 437 278 100.0 100.0
Note: 14CDates afterVasil'ev et al. (2002), with additions.

(GIN-7540), 13,930 ± 80 B.R (GIN-7541), and
14,070 ± 110 B.R (SOAN-3075);andfor layer5,
thereis one date:15,130± 795 B.R (SOAN-3251).
Two 14Cvalues, 12,400 ± 60 B.R (GrA-5555)and
20,900 ± 300 B.R (GIN-117) are rejected (see
below).
If we simplycountthe numberof 14Cdatesper
1,000 year interval,there are five dates for the
14,000-13,000 B.R interval,three dates for the
15,000-14,000 B.R interval,and one date for the
16,000-15,000 B.R interval.However,whenthese
14Cdates arecombinedinto occupationepisodes,
thereis onlyone occupationforeachof these 1,000
year intervals.This is because the dates falling
withinthetimerangeof 14,000-13,000B.Rforlay-
ers 2, 3a, 3b, and4 arelumpedinto a single occu-
pation,and datesbelongingto the 15,000-14,000
B.R time framefromlayers2, 3a, and4 arecom-
binedinto anotheroccupation.
The countingof occupationsratherthancount-
ing 14Cdates only representsa fundamentaldif-
ferencecomparedwithpreviousstudiesof 14Cdate
frequencydistributionof the SiberianPaleolithic
(e.g., Dolukhanov and Shukurov 2004;
Dolukhanovet al. 2002; Goebel 1999). It is espe-
cially different from the approach used by
DolukhanovandShukurov(2004) who calculated
the meanage valuesof 14Cdateseriesfor the same
stratum:"Whena seriesof dateswas availablefor
a singlesite,statisticallysoundmeasurements were
 REPORTS
Figure 1. Radiocarbon-datedPaleolithic sites in Siberia used in this study.
chosen,i.e. those which lie close to the medianof
the date cluster" (Dolukhanov and Shukurov
2004:54).The averagingof datescauses a signifi-
cantloss of originalinformation,becauseaccord-
ing to ourpointof view (see above),each 14Cvalue
reflectsan individualevent of humanpresenceat
a site. In ouropinion,it is incorrectto averageval-
ues whichdo notbelongto thesameeventin a site's
history.Withregardto DolukhanovandShukurov's
(2004) method,thenumberof "radiocarbon dates"
(e.g., Dolukhanovet al. 2002:Figure1) is in fact
the amount of averaged values only. In conse-
quence,DolukhanovandShukurov's (2004) data-
base does not trulyrepresentthe total quantityof
14Cdatesavailablefor the SiberianPaleolithic.
In a recentstudyof Neanderthalandearlymod-
ern human ecology and environmentin Europe
(van Andel, Davies, and Weninger2003:33^8;
van Andel, Davies, Weninger, and Joris
2003:25-28), 1,363 14Cdatesfrom372 sites were
calibratedandthencombinedinto3,000-4,000 cal-
endaryearintervals.The numberof sites for each
of these intervalswas calculatedandplotted(van
Andel, Davies, and Weninger2003:Figures4.2,
4.4, and 4.6). However,van Andel, Davies, and
777
Weninger(2003) andvanAndel,Davies,Weninger,
andJoris(2003) do not describeclearlyhow they
lumpedthe numberof calibrated14Cdatesintothe
number of sites. We can only assume that van
Andel, Davies, andWeninger(2003) averagedthe
calibrated14Cdatesfor each site into single inter-
vals, which were assignedto the 3,000-4,000 cal-
ibratedyeartime slices. This is also differentfrom
ourapproach.Wedidnotcombine14Cdatesforany
of the sites, if the dates did not exceed 1,000 14C
yeartime spans(see above).
Our approachis to use the numberof 1,000-
year-longoccupationperiodsinsteadof the num-
ber of (a) 14Cdates, (b) averaged14Cdate series,
and (c) calibratedand averaged14Cdate series,
employingthe SiberianPaleolithic14Cdatabaseas
an example.
The Original 14CData and TheirEvaluation
About 130 Siberian Paleolithic sites have been
radiometricallydated,mainly by the radiocarbon
method(e.g., Kuzmin2000a; KuzminandOrlova
1998;Vasil'evet al. 2002) (Figure1). It is notpos-
sibleto estimatethe age of undatedSiberianUpper
Paleolithicsites basedon artifacttypology,as it is
778 AMERICANANTIQUITY
in WesternEuropewhere severaldistinctivetool
industries, the Chatelperronian,Aurignacian,
Gravettian, Solutrean,andMagdalenian,areknown
in the UpperPaleolithic(e.g., Bocquet-Appeland
Demars2000b; Strauset al. 2000). In contrast,a
distinguishingfeatureof the SiberianUpperPale-
olithic is that it has fewer industries.Only two
majorindustries,thatis macrobladeand microb-
lade, may be distinguished in Siberia (e.g.,
Abramova 1989), and the temporal boundary
betweenthemvariesgreatly.Thisis thereasonwhy
only siteswith 14Crecordswereselectedfor analy-
sis, an approachsimilarto thatrecentlyemployed
by van Andel, Davies, and Weninger(2003) and
vanAndel, Davies,Weninger,andJoris(2003).
In this paper, the upper 14Cage limit of ca.
12,000B.P.is acceptedastheendof theUpperPale-
olithic.Thisis primarilybecauseat ca. 12,000B.P.
several megafaunal species that were widely
exploitedby UpperPaleolithichumansas objects
of huntingand sourcesof bone, ivory,and antler
(e.g., Vasil'ev 2003), either become extinct in
Siberia(woolly rhinoceros,andPleistocenebison
and horse) or significantly reduced in habitat
(woollymammoth)(Orlova,Kuzmin,andDemen-
tiev 2004). Moreover,in the Final Paleolithic(or
Mesolithic in previous summaries)beginning at
ca. 12,000 B.P., subsistencepatternsand environ-
mentswere quitedifferentfromthose thatexisted
duringthe UpperPaleolithic.They were charac-
terizedby a shiftto smalleranimalsas prey(mostly
hoofed species) and an increasein fish consump-
tion(e.g.,Powers1996).Thus,afterca. 12,000B.P.
there were no populationswith an Upper Pale-
olithictype of subsistencein most of Siberia.
Thepossibleutilizationby Paleolithicpeopleof
sub-fossilbones,teeth,andtusksof the LatePleis-
tocene megafaunain Siberia,mainly represented
by woolly mammoth(Mammuthusprimigenius)
and woolly rhinoceros(Coelodontaantiquitatis),
has previouslybeen discussed (e.g., Derevianko,
Zenin,Leshchinsky,andMaschenko2000; Soffer
1985:303-308; Zenin et al. 2000). This practice
coulddistortthe actual14Cage of a Paleolithicsite,
due to the differencebetweenthe time of occupa-
tion andthe age of sub-fossilremainsup to several
thousandsof years. However,in most cases it is
extremelydifficultto distinguishwhich 14Cdates
trulyrepresentthe time of site existence,because
of the long-termcharacterof humanpresenceat
[Vol. 70, No. 4, 2005]
particularplaces andconsequentwide variationin
the 14Cdateseries (see below). Thus,in this study
we accept most of the megafaunaldates at face
value,andrejectthemonly if theydo notfitthe site
stratigraphy.
For an interpretation of the raw data,we criti-
cally analyze the 14C databases for the Siberian
Paleolithic (e.g., Goebel and Slobodin 1999;
Kuzmin 1994, 2000a, 2000b, 2004; Kuzminand
Tankersley1996;LisitsynandSvezhentsev1997).
Of the two most complete14Cdatalists published
recentlyfor the SiberianPaleolithic(Kuzminand
Orlova1998;Vasil'evet al. 2002), we use the lat-
est one (Vasil'evet al. 2002) as the main source.
We also include the most recentlypublished14C
dates, and all new dates are listed below. In total,
we have selected 437 14Cdates ranging from
betweenca. 46,000 B.P.and 12,000 B.P.aftercare-
ful evaluationof dataquality.Note thatinfinite14C
datesareconsideredas minimalvalues,andincor-
poratedinto the date list (e.g., a date of > 40,000
B.P. was includedas 40,000 B.P). In contrastto
Brantingham et al. (2004:267)who usedonlymax-
imumages for each site/culturallayer,we employ
all the datesavailableafterrejectingthe erroneous
values.
Thereare34 newlypublished14Cdatesfrom 14
sites: Khodulikha(50°40'N; 127°20'E): 22,530 ±
320 B.P. (SNU03-365) and 16,480 ± 170 B.P.
(SNU03-366); Sosnovy Bor: 12,090 ± 110 B.P.
(AA-38038);KaminnayaCave:13,850± 140 B.P.
(AA-38042) and 13,920 ± 130 B.P (AA-38044);
DenisovaCave,southerngallery:29,200± 360 B.P.
(AA-35321) (Derevianko,Shunkov,Anoikin,and
Uluanov2000); Mal'ta,upperlayer: 12,140 ± 90
B.P. (AA-37186) and 12,490 ± 120 B.P. (AA-
37473), andmainlayer:19,880 ± 160 B.P. (OxA-
7129) (Richardset al. 2001);Studenoe2, layer4/5:
17,840 ± 110 B.P.(AA-37963), 16,950 ± 180 B.P.
(AA-37962), 16,215 ± 80 B.P. (AA-37965), and
14,485± 75 B.P.(AA-37966)(Kuzminet al. 2004),
layer5: 17,165 ± 115 B.P. (AA-23657), andlayer
8: 20,620 ± 90 B.P. (CAMS-90971)(Buvit et al.
2004); Goly Mys: 12,925 ± 65 B.P. (AA-36277),
12,680 ± 65 B.P. (AA-36278), 12,610 ± 60 B.P.
(AA-36279), and 12,360 ± 60 B.P. (AA-36281)
(Kuzminet al. 2003); MasterovKliuch:32,510 ±
1,400 B.P. (AA-23640) and 29,860 ± 1,000 B.P.
(AA-23641) (Goebel et al. 2001); Lugovskoe:
13,465± 50B.P. (KIA-19643)(Orlova,Zenin,Stu-
 REPORTS
art, Higham, Grootes, Leshchinsky, Kuzmin,
Pavlov,andMaschenko2004);Mamakan2 (57°47'
N; 113° 59f E): 18,670 ± 600 B.R (SOAN-4546);
Tesa (57° 30' N; 112° 30' E): 20,040 ± 765 B.R
(SOAN-4419)(Belousovet al.2002);Nepa:26,065
± 300 B.R (AA-8885) and 33,100 ± 1,500 B.R
(AA-27382) (Goebel 2004); Ogonki 5: 19,440 ±
140 B.R (Beta-115987) and 19,380 ± 190 B.R
(Beta-115986) (Vasilevski2003); andYanaRHS:
27,800 ± 500 B.R (GIN-11464),25,800 ± 600 B.R
(GIN-11465), 27,600 ± 500 B.R (GIN-11467),
27,300± 270 B.P.(Beta-173067),27,440± 210 B.R
(Beta-162233), and 28,250 ± 170 B.R (Beta-
173064) (Pitulkoet al. 2004).
Several14Cvaluesambiguouslyassociatedwith
culturalcomponentsand critically appraisedby
Vasil'evet al. (2002) were excludedfromconsid-
eration.They include dates fromVoronono-Yaya
(SOAN-3837),ProskuriakovGrotto(SOAN-848,
1517-1519), Okladnikov Cave (SOAN-2458),
Dvuglazka Cave (dates of 19,880 ± 200 B.R,
20,190 ± 140 B.R, for which we retainedonly the
oldestvalueof 22,500 ± 600 B.R; all listed as Lab
CodeLE-1433),Druzhinikha(LE-4894),Afontova
Gora2 (GIN-117), Kashtanka1 (IGAN-1048and
1050, GIN-6999, GrN-24481 and 24482), Ulug-
Bil', Gorbatka3, Ust'-Mil 2 (LE-954, 955, 1000,
and 1001), Ikhine2 (IM-201, 205, 206, and 239,
and GIN-1019 and 1020), and Kurla3 (SOAN-
1397).
Combining14CdateseriesfortheSiberianPale-
olithic into occupation episodes, in addition to
deletingvague14Cvaluesfromthe originallist, we
rejectedseveralotherdatesbasedon the following
criteria:(a) inversionsin dateseries;(b) a 14Cdate
is a clearoutliercomparedwith the rest of values
fromthe samelayer;and (c) extremelylargestan-
darddeviation(morethan4,000 years).Forthetwo
oldest sites of the Dyuktaiculture(Yakutia),Ust'-
Mil 2 andIkhine2, datesolderthanca. 24,600 B.R
wererejectedbecausetheycontradictthe paleoen-
vironmentalrecordsandgeneralframeworkof the
Siberian Paleolithic (see Kuzmin and Orlova
1998:35-37;Vasil'evet al. 2002:508-510).
Therefore,thefollowingdateswereexcludedfor
certain time intervals: (1) 13,000-12,000 B.R:
AfontovaGora2 (GrA-5555),Listvenka,layer 8
(IGAN-1078),and Pervomaiskoe(LE-4893);(2)
19,000-18,000 B.R: Listvenka, layer 12 (Beta-
58391), Shlenka (GIN-2862), Tarachikha(LE-
779
3834), and Studenoe2 (AA-26739); (3) 20,000-
19,000 B.R: Tarachikha (LE-3821); (4)
21,000-20,000 B.R: Shlenka(GIN-2863);and(5)
26,000-25,000 B.R: Sabanikha (LE-3747).
Besides these dates, the values of ca.
45,000-40,000 B.R for the Ust'-Izhul' 1 site
(SOAN-3334,andAECV-1939,2032-2034) were
alsoexcludedbecausethethermoluminescence age
of the culturallayerat this site was recentlydeter-
mined as ca. 125,000 years ago (Chlachulaet al.
2003).
Althoughsome dates might not reflecthuman
occupation,we preferto retainthem.At two sites,
SiberdikandUshki 1, theearliest14Cvalues(MAG-
916; GIN-167 and 168) were acceptedas reliable,
even though the other dates are significantly
younger (Siberdik, see Goebel and Slobodin
1999:114-115; Kuzmin 2000b: 123, 127) or
youngerage determinationswere obtainedsubse-
quently(Ushki 1, see Goebel et al. 2003). In our
opinion,until new full-scale excavationsare con-
ductedat these sites, the earliest14Cvaluesshould
be takeninto account,due to the possibilityof a
wide 14Cage variation in the same layer (see
below).
ThePhenomenonof WideDeviations in 14C
Date Series at ArchaeologicalSites
The wide variationin 14Cdate series from Pale-
olithicsitesis a commonfeature,especiallyin East-
ernEuropeandSiberiawheremammothbonesand
tusksareused for dating(e.g., PraslovandSouler-
jytsky 1997;Sulerzhitsky2004).A principalcause
of wide variationsin 14Cdate series withinsingle
culturalcomponentsis the complex taphonomic
natureof materialused for datingthat was intro-
ducedto sites by Paleolithicpeople, often with its
ownapparentageupto severalmillenniaolderthan
the actualsite occupation.This statementis based
on theconceptof "practicable accuracy"in 14Cdat-
ing of archaeologicalsites (Krenkeand Sulerzhit-
sky 1992;see alsoKuzminandOrlova1998:24-25,
45-46).
Some localitieswere inhabitedrepeatedlyover
severalmillennia,and as a resulta wide variation
in the 14Cdate series can be observed.As recent
examples,the 14Cdatesof LatePleistocenesitesin
Alaska(HamiltonandGoebel 1999),andtheGreat
Plains of NorthAmerica and southwesternUSA
(Stanford1999)may demonstratethateven within
780 AMERICAN ANTIQUITY
a singleculturallayeror layercomplex,14Cvalues
can vary within severalhundredsand up to one
thousandyears.
Results and Discussion
GeneralPatternsof the Colonizationof Siberia
in the Pleistocene
Accordingto chronometricinformationavailable
for the SiberianPaleolithic(e.g., Kuzmin2000a),
the earliest firmly documented occupation is
detectedattheBerezhekovositein thesouthernpart
of WesternSiberia(YeniseiRiverbasin),between
ca. 540,000 years ago and ca. 130,000 years ago,
which correspondsto the second half of the Mid-
dle Pleistocene.Some Paleolithicsites in southern
Siberiacouldbe evenearlier,basedon thepresence
of earlyMiddlePleistocenemammalianfossils in
presumablyprimaryassociationwithartifactsatthe
Zasukhino site in Transbaikal (Lbova et al.
2003:62-74). The radiothermoluminescent (RTL)
dates for this site are from greaterthan 700,000
yearsago to less than550,000 yearsago (Lbovaet
al. 2003:73-74). However,the uncertaintyassoci-
ated with the validity of the RTL method (see
review in Huntley 1992; Kuzmin 2000a:35-37)
requiresthatthechronologyof thissitemustbe con-
firmedby reliableradiometricdatingmethods.The
earliestoccupationof the more northerlypartof
Siberia(the DiringYuriakhsite in Yakutia),dated
to betweenca. 370,000 yearsago andca. 270,000
years ago (Waterset al. 1999), remainsquestion-
able (e.g., Kuzmin2000a:33-35).
The Late Pleistocene occupationof southern
Siberiais muchbetterdocumented.The age of the
earliestradiometricallydatedsite of Ust'-Izhulin
the Yenisei River basin is ca. 125,000 years old
(Chlachulaet al. 2003). The long sequenceof 14C
datesprovidesevidencethatsouthernSiberiawas
permanentlyoccupiedsince ca. 44,000 B.P. (e.g.,
Vasil'evet al. 2002).
As for northernSiberia, including its north-
easternpartwhichbelongsto Beringia,humancol-
onizationoccurredonly in the second half of the
LatePleistocene,initiallyatca. 34,000-27,000 B.P.
(Ust'-Kova,Nepa, andYanaRHS sites) (Goebel
2004:319-322; Pitulkoet al. 2004; Vasil'ev et al.
2002) and thereafterat ca. 25,000-13,000 B.P.
(Yakutiansites of the Dyuktaiculture;Ushki and
[Vol. 70, No. 4, 2005]
Siberdik sites) (e.g., Kuzmin and Orlova 1998;
KuzminandTankersley1996).
DistributionPatternsof]4C Datesfrom Siber-
ian Paleolithic Sites, ca. 46,000-12,000 B.P
As was statedby Rick (1987:56), "datefrequen-
cies will usuallyyield relative,ratherthanabsolute
measuresof occupation."Bearingin mindthatour
dataalsoreflectthepopulationdynamicsof Siberia
in relativetermsonly, we createddiagramsof the
distributionof 14Cdates per 1,000 year intervals,
using the numberof 14Cvaluesregardlessof their
s.d. (Figure2).
Wecandrawsome generalizationsfromthedis-
tributionof 14Cdates as shownin Figure2. There
arefourmajorsubdivisionsof 14Cdatefrequencies
for the SiberianPaleolithic:(1) Until ca. 28,000
B.R, the frequencyof datesis quitelow, less than
10 per 1,000 years,with the only exceptionat ca.
35,000-34,000 B.P.; (2) the number of dates
increasesfrom ca. 28,000 B.P. to ca. 20,000 B.R,
with 10 andmoreperintervalwithinthisrange;(3)
the number of dates drops within the ca.
20,000-16,000 B.P.range,but alwaysexceeds 10
dates per 1,000 years; (4) at ca. 16,000-12,000
B.R, the quantityof dates increasesalmostexpo-
nentially,andreachesmorethan70 per 1,000 years
forthe ca. 13,000-12,000 B.P.interval.In termsof
percentagefrequency(Table1), the numberof 14C
datesfor ca. 46,000-28,000 B.P.is .2-2.3 percent
(averagevalue 1.2 percent),with the exceptionof
2.8 percentfortheca. 35,000-34,000 B.R interval;
for ca. 28,000-20,000 B.R, it is 2.3-4.1 percent
(average3.1 percent);for ca. 20,000-16,000 B.R,
it is 2.5-3 .4 percent(average2.9 percent);andfor
16,000-12,000 B.R, it is 5.5-16.5 percent(aver-
age 10.2 percent).
DistributionPatternsof OccupationEpisodes in
the SiberianPaleolithic, ca. 46,000-12,000 B.P.
We plottedthe distributionof 278 detectedoccu-
pationepisodes,less than1,000 yearseachin dura-
tion, for the time span of ca. 46,000-12,000 B.P.
(Figure3). This diagramreflectsgeneralpatterns
in the intensityof humanoccupationof Siberiain
the late MiddleandUpperPaleolithic.As one can
observe,it is to some extentdifferentfromthe fre-
quencies of the 14Cdate distribution(Figure2).
The lowest frequency of occupations is at ca.
46,000-36,000 B.R, with 5 or less per 1,000 years
 REPORTS 781

Figure 2. Number of 14Cdates per 1,000 year intervals in the Paleolithic of Siberia, ca. 46,000-12,000 B.P.

Figure 3. Number of occupation episodes per 1,000 year intervals in the Paleolithic of Siberia, ca. 46,000-12,000 B.P.

(0-1.8 percent;average.9 percent).Thereis a long has a complex internalstructure(Figure3). There

intervalof ca. 36,000-16,000 B.P. where the fre- are definitemaximaat ca. 35,000-34,000 B.P. (8
quencyof occupation,between5 and 11 per 1,000 occupations,or 2.9 percent);ca. 26,000-25,000
years(1.8^-.Opercent;average2.8 percent),is sig- B.P. (11, or 4.0 percent);and ca. 25,000-24,000,
nificantlyhigherthan previously.This time span ca. 22,000-21,000B.P, andca. 19,000-18,000B.P.
782 AMERICAN ANTIQUITY
Figure 4. Number of occupation episodes per 2,000 year intervals in the Paleolithic of Siberia, ca. 46,000-12,000 B.P.
(9, or 3.2 percenteach). Clearminimaalso exist,
at ca. 29,000-28,000 B.P. (5, or 1.8 percent),and
ca. 28,000-27,000 B.P. (6, or 2.2 percent).At ca.
16,000-12,000B.P., occupationincreasedsubstan-
tiallywith 19-28 episodesper1,000years(6.8-10.0
percent,average8.7 percent)(Table1). Thus,three
mainsubdivisionsof occupationfrequencycan be
identified for ca. 46,000-12,000 B.P.: (1) ca.
46,000-36,000 B.P; (2) ca. 36,000-16,000 B.P;
and(3) ca. 16,000-12,000 B.P.
The patternof frequencydistributionfor occu-
pationscalculatedforthe2,000 yearintervals(Fig-
ure4; Table2) is very similarto thatof the 1,000
year intervals.A low frequencyof occupationis
detectedat ca. 46,000-36,000 B.P.The frequency
graduallyincreasesatca. 26,000-16,000 B.P, with
a peak at ca. 26,000-24,000 B.P. (18 occupations
or 7.9 percent).Populationgrowthacceleratedat
ca. 16,000-12,000 B.P.
In orderto makea comparativeanalysisof the
frequencydistributionof 14Cdates and occupa-
tions, we use percentage of dates/occupations
(Table1). Forthe 13,000-12,000 B.P.interval,the
numberof datesexceedsthenumberof occupations
bymorethan1.0percent(16.5 percentvs. lO.Oper-
cent). For the 16,000-15,000 B.P. and
26,000-25,000 B.P.intervals,therearemoreoccu-
pationsthandatesin excess of 1.0 percent(6.8 per-
[Vol. 70, No. 4, 2005]
cent vs. 5.5 percent,and 4.0 percentvs. 2.7 per-
cent, respectively).For the entire intervalof ca.
46,000-13,000 B.P.the averagepercentageof 14C
datesper 1,000 years(2.5 percent)is very close to
thosefor occupations(2.7 percent)comparedwith
theca. 13,000-12,000 B.P.intervalwherethe aver-
age percentageof dates is much higher than for
occupationsper 1,000 years(16.5 percentvs. 10.0
percent).Thereis no decreasein the percentageof
occupations during the interval of ca.
20,000-16,000 B.P. The considerableincreaseof
values afterca. 16,000 B.P. is a common pattern
for both distributions.
Towardan Understandingof Population
Dynamics in the SiberianPaleolithic
Models of populationchanges in NorthernEura-
sia developedby Dolukhanovet al. (2001, 2002)
arebasedon the evaluationof 14C-dated late Mid-
dle Paleolithicand UpperPaleolithicsites. Their
conclusionsare,however,notin agreementwiththe
primary data (see Kuzmin and Keates 2004).
Dolukhanovand others (Dolukhanov2004:231;
Dolukhanov and Shukurov 2004:55-57;
Dolukhanovet al. 2002:604) arguethatthe peaks
in the 14Cdate distributionin NorthernEurasia
reflect "waves"of colonizationin the late Upper
Pleistocene, since ca. 46,000 B.P. However, in
 REPORTS 783

Table2. Numberof OccupationEpisodes for the Siberian

Paleolithic,ca. 46,000-12,000 B.R (for 2,000 Year 19,000-18,000 B.R humanpopulationsin Siberia
Intervals) eitherdramatically declinedordisappeared entirely.
Some scholarshaveacceptedthe view thatSiberia
Number of % of "remained largelyuninhabited duringthecoldmax-
14CAges, B.R Occupations Occupations imum of the Last Glacial"(Hoffecker2005:110;
12,000-14,000 41 18.0
see also Hoffecker and Elias 2003), i.e., at ca.
14,000-16,000 35 15.3
16,000-18,000 15 6.6 20,000-18,000 B.R
18,000-20,000 14 6.1 Our results do not supportthis interpretation.
20,000-22,000 14 6.1 According to our data (Table 1), the numberof
22,000-24,000 14 6.1 Siberian14Cdatesdecreasesat ca. 20,000-16,000
24,000-26,000 18 7.9
11 4.8
B.R, includingtheLGM(Figure2). However,judg-
26,000-28,000
28,000-30,000 12 5.2 ing from the numberof occupationsno decline
30,000-32,000 12 5.2 occursat this time (Figures3 and4).
32,000-34,000 11 4.8 Thereareseveralsitesin Siberiathatcorrespond
34,000-36,000 10 4.4 to the LGM, spreadfrom the West SiberianPlain
36,000-38,000 6 2.6
38,000-40,000 7 3.1 throughEasternSiberiato the Russian Far East
40,000-42,000 4 1.7 (Figure5; Table3), indicatingthatpopulationsdid
42,000-44,000 4 1.7 not decreasesubstantiallyor disappear.Thereare
44,000-46,000 1 0.4 currentlyat least 18 sites with 27 14Cdatescorre-
Total 229 100.0
spondingto the time intervalof ca. 20,150-18,035
B.R This set of sites maybe referredto as a "max-
Siberiano "wave"patterncan be observedin the imal scenario"in termsof the LGMoccupationof
occupationdistribution(Figures3 and4). Thus,it Siberia.
appears that the population of Siberia at ca. These include 11 sites with 14Cvalues gener-
46,000-16,000 B.R grew at a steadyrate,without atedon megafaunalbones (Table3) not necessar-
substantialminimaor maxima. ily directly correspondingto the LGM, because
Thepresenceof humansin Siberiaatthe height bone materialwith an apparentage of severalhun-
of the Last GlacialMaximum(LGM),the age of dredor even thousandsof years might have been
which we determineas ca. 20,000-18,000 B.R scavengedby laterinhabitants.This may be espe-
basedon summariesof geologicaldatafortheLate cially truefor the Studenoe2 site, wherethe sin-
Pleistoceneof NorthernEurasia(e.g., Svendsenet gle LGM value of ca. 18,830 B.R from layer4/5
al. 1999),hasbecomeanimportantissue in thelast contradictsthe generalsite stratigraphy. The 14C
few years (e.g., Hoffecker 2005:91-95; Goebel value of ca. 17,170 B.R from the underlyingcul-
1999, 2002). An apparentdecline or even disap- turallayer5 (Buvitet al. 2004; Goebelet al. 2000)
pearanceof Siberianhumanpopulationsoccurred doesnotoverlapwiththeLGMdatewith± 2 sigma,
atca. 20,000-18,000B.P.accordingto Dolukhanov andcalibratedages for these two datesalso do not
et al. (2002:Figure 2) and Goebel (1999:210; overlap(see Kuzminet al. 2004). Thus,the 18,830
2002:121). B.R valuewas excludedfromoccupationanalysis
The presenceof humansin Siberiaat the LGM (see above). However,in most of the cases with
wasinitiallydiscussedin the 1970s(Tseitlin1979), megafaunaldates,such an interpretation is almost
andfurtherin the 1990s and2000s (Goebel 1999, impossible.
2002;Goebelet al. 2000;KuzminandOrlova1998; At thetwopresumablynorthernmost LGMsites,
Vasil'evet al.2002;VelichkoandKurenkova1990). Ikhine2 andVerkhne-Troitskaya, both locatedin
Based on a limited amount of data, Tseitlin Yakutia,the degreeof associationbetweenthe 14C
(1979:260)assumedthatSiberiawastotallydepop- dates and artifactsis problematic.The bone dates
ulatedattheheightof theLGM.However,Velichko at the Ikhine2 site could be morereliablethanthe
and Kurenkova (1990:259) disagree with this wood dates, because the wood might have been
assumption,and conclude that some populations redeposited into the younger sediments (e.g.,
still remainedin Siberiaat ca. 20,000-18,000 B.R Abramova 1989), but bones could have been
Goebel (1999, 2002) suggested that at ca. broughtto the site soon afterthe animalshad died
784 AMERICANANTIQUITY
Figure 5. Archaeologicalsites of the Last Glacial Maximum (ca. 20,000-18,000 B.P.) in Siberia and the Russian Far East
or were killed by humans.In this case, the bone
dates, 20,080 ± 150 B.P. and 19,695 ± 100 B.P.
(Table3), mighttestifyin favorof site occupation
at the LGM. On the otherhand,it is possible that
these bones were scavenged,andthatthe occupa-
tion of this site occurredafterca. 20,000 B.P. For
the Verkhne-Troitskaya site (Mochanov and
Fedoseeva1996:180-184), a wood sample,which
was usedto producethe 14Cdateofca. 18,300B.P,
may be derivedfromreworkedoldermaterialpre-
servedin thepermafrostdeposits(see Kuzminand
Orlova 1998:36-37), and thereforemay also not
correspondto the LGM.
However,thereare six sites with 14Cdatesrun
on wood charcoalandhumanbone withinthe ca.
20,000-18,000B.P.timerange:Tomsk,Ust'-Kova,
Mal'ta,Mamakan2, Ust'-Ulma 1, and Ogonki 5
(Table3). These sites representthe "minimalsce-
nario"of LGM humanpresence in Siberia, and
theyaredistributedacrossthe southernandcentral
partsof WesternandEasternSiberia,andtheRuss-
ian FarEast (Figure5). The corpusof these most
reliable14Cdatesincludesa valueof ca. 19,880B.R
generatedon well-preservedhumanbone collagen
from the Mal'ta site (Richardset al. 2001:6530).
[Vol. 70, No. 4, 2005]
Thus,theoccupationof southernandcentralSiberia
at the LGMis an unquestionablefact.This clearly
demonstratesthat UpperPaleolithicpeople were
able to cope with the harshenvironmentalcondi-
tions of the LGM.
In otherpartsof NorthernEurasia,increasingly
more datahave become availableon LGM settle-
ments.In the CentralRussianPlain andNorthern
Urals,a minimumof 20 sites and56 14Cdatescor-
respondto the LGM (Hoffecker2002:Figure6.3;
Svezhentsev1993). SeveralLGMsites areknown
fromCentralEurope(StreetandTerberger2000),
and dozens of LGM sites have been identifiedin
France and Iberia (Bocquet-Appeland Demars
2000b; Strauset al. 2000).
In Siberia,the numberof 14Cdatesfor the time
intervalof ca. 20,000-18,000 B.P.decreases(Fig-
ure2), while thefrequencyof occupationsremains
unchangedcomparedwiththe 24,000-20,000 B.P.
interval(Figures3 and4). This discrepancyis due
to the large numberof 14Cdates from two sites
immediately preceding the LGM, at ca.
21,000-20,000 B.P. (Mal'ta, 6 dates, and Shes-
takovo, 5 dates) and ca. 22,000-21,000 B.P.
(Mal'ta,7 dates).These14Cdateswerecountedsep-
 REPORTS 785

Table 3. The LGM Sites in Siberiaand their 14CDates.

Site Name Material

and Layer No. Region 14CDate, B.P. Lab Code Dated Reference
Shikaevka West SiberianPlain 18,050 ± 95 SOAN-2211 Bone Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
Mogochino West SiberianPlain 20,150 ±240 SOAN-1513 Bone Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
Tomsk West SiberianPlain 18,300 ±1,000 GIN-2100 Charcoal Tseitlin (1979)
Shestakovo,layer 17 West SiberianPlain 19,190 ±310 SOAN-3609 Bone Zenin et al. (2000)
18,040 ± 175 SOAN-3610 Bone Zenin et al. (2000)
Novoselovo 6 Yenisei River basin 18,090 ± 940 LE-4807 Bone Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
Tarachikha,locality 1 Yenisei River basin 19,850 ± 180 LE-3821 Bone* Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
18,930 ±320 LE-3834 Bone* Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
Shlenka Yenisei Riverbasin 20,100 ± 100 GIN-2863 Tusk* Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
18,600 ± 2,000 GIN-2862 Bone* Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
Ui 1, layer 2 Yenisei River basin 19,280 ± 200 LE-4257 Bone Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
Ust'-Kova AngaraRiverbasin 19,540 ± 90 SOAN-1900 Charcoal Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
18,035 ± 180 KRIL-621 Charcoal Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
KrasnyYar 1, layer 6 AngaraRiver basin 19,100 ± 100 GIN-5330 Bone Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
Mal'ta AngaraRiver basin 19,900 ±800 GIN-7705 Bone Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
19,880 ± 160 OxA-7129 Bone** Richardset al. (2001)
Studenoe2, layer 4/5 Transbaikal 18,830 ± 300 AA-26739 Bone Goebel et al. (2000)
Mamakan2 Vilyui Riverbasin 18,760 ± 600 SOAN-4546 Charcoal Belousov et al. (2002)
Tesa Vilyui River basin 20,040 ± 765 SOAN-4419 Bone Belousov et al. (2002)
Ikhine2 CentralYakutia 20,080 ± 150 SOAN-3185 Bone Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
19,695 ±100 SOAN-3186 Bone Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
Verkhne-Troitskaya CentralYakutia 18,300 ± 180 LE-905 Wood Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
Ust'-Ulma 1, layer 2b AmurRiver basin 19,360 ± 65 SOAN-2619 Charcoal Vasil'ev et al. (2002)
Ogonki 5, layer 2 SakhalinIsland 19,440 ± 140 Beta-115987 Charcoal Vasilevski(2003)
19,380 ± 190 Beta-115986 Charcoal Vasilevski(2003)
19,320 ±145 AA-20864 Charcoal Vasilevski(2003)
18,920 ±150 AA-25434 Charcoal Vasilevski (2003)
* SurfaceFinds
** HumanBone

aratelyfor Figure2 butlumpedtogetherin Figure
3 (see also Table1). This exampleclearlydemon-
stratesthatthe numberof occupationsper 1,000
yearsis a muchmoreobjectivemeasureof the size
of prehistoricpopulationscomparedwiththenum-
ber of14Cdatesper 1,000 years.
Ourresultsshowthatthedensityof humanoccu-
pationin Siberiawas quitelow untilca. 36,000 B.P.
andincreasedthereafter(Figures3 and4). Afterca.
16,000B.R, the populationappearsto havegrown
substantially.The "visibility" of a population,
whichis necessaryto detecthumanpresenceas was
postulatedby Butzer (1991), may now be estab-
lishedfromat leastca. 36,000 B.P.in Siberiacom-
paredwithca. 14,000B.P.suggestedearlier(Butzer
1991:145).Theemergenceof microbladetechnol-
ogy caused an "explosion" of population size
accordingto Butzer (1991:145). New data show
thatthe emergenceof microblademanufacturein
Siberiaat ca. 35,000-29,000 B.P. (Dereviankoet
al. 2003) correspondsto the firstrise in population
size at ca. 36,000 B.P.An "explosion"in popula-
tion size in Siberiais now evidentfromca. 16,000
B.P. (Figures3 and4).
Conclusion
Thenumberof occupationepisodesshouldbe used
insteadof the numberof 14Cdates to investigate
prehistoricpopulationdynamicsin generalandthe
intensityof occupationin particular.The number
of occupationsreflectsthepopulationhistorymore
objectivelyratherthanthe numberof 14Cdates.In
orderto test this approach,we selected the terri-
toryof Siberiawhichhas extensivearchaeological
and radiocarbonrecords.The initial peopling of
Siberiaoccurredatthebeginningof theLatePleis-
tocene or even earlier,in the second part of the
Middle Pleistocene.Withthe datanow available,
we canreconstructthe mainpatternsof Paleolithic
occupationdynamics for the ca. 46,000-12,000
B.P. time range.The occupationdensityremains
786 AMERICAN ANTIQUITY
low until ca. 36,000 B.R afterwhich it gradually
increases until ca. 16,000 B.R; no decrease is
observedat the LGM(ca. 20,000-18,000 B.R). At
ca. 16,000-12,000 B.R, thepopulationgrowthrate
is exponential. The cause(s) of this population
explosionis probablycomplexanddeservesmore
research.Themainconclusionspresentedheremay
at the moment serve as a first-generationrepre-
sentationof populationdynamicsin the Siberian
Paleolithic.
Acknowledgments.We are grateful to Drs. George S. Burr
(University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA) and Lyubov A.
Orlova (Instituteof Geology, Novosibirsk, Russia) for pro-
viding informationaboutthe precisionof 14Cmeasurements,
to Mr. Carlos Chiquete (Universityof Arizona) for transla-
tion of the abstractinto Spanish, and to Dr. Vyacheslav N.
Dementiev (Instituteof Geology, Novosibirsk)for help with
generating the Figures. We thank Prof. Nicolas Rolland
(Universityof Victoria,B. C, Canada)and threeanonymous
reviewers for their insightful comments on this paper.This
research was supportedin part by the FulbrightProgram,
grant 03-27672 (2004). We also thank NSF-ArizonaAMS
Facility,Universityof Arizona,and Dr.A. J. TimothyJull for
providingresearchspace and equipment.
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