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Job Role: Higher Executive Officer (HEO) Channel Forecaster and Modeller
Civil Service Jobs Reference: 294741
Closing date: 2 July 2023
About DWP
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) is responsible for welfare, Our Values
pensions and child maintenance policy. As the UK’s biggest public service Our values guide how we work with each other, customers and
department it administers a range of working age, pension age, disability and ill others. Understanding how we live up to them helps us learn
health benefits to over 20 million claimants and customers. for the future.
We care
Responsibilities We look out for each other. We listen to each other and
We are responsible for: to our customers. We take people’s needs seriously.
• understanding and dealing with the causes of poverty rather than its symptoms
• encouraging people to work and making work pay We deliver
• encouraging disabled people and those with ill health to work and be We are committed and professional. We take
independent responsibility for getting the job done right. We take
• providing a decent income for people of pension age and promoting saving for pride in our expertise and our purpose.
retirement
• providing value for money and reducing levels of fraud and error
We adapt
We learn and grow together to find better ways of
Priorities
working. We change what we do as our customers’
Our priorities are to:
needs change.
• run an effective welfare system that enables people to achieve financial
independence by providing assistance and guidance into employment
We work together
• increase saving for, and security in, later life
We pull together because we know that when we join
• create a fair and affordable welfare system which improves the life chances of
up with others we achieve greater things.
children
• deliver outstanding services to our customers and claimants
• Deliver Efficiently: Transform the way we deliver our services to reduce costs We value everybody
and increase efficiency We work to make this a place where everyone belongs
• Read our Single Departmental Plan to find out more about how we are and can be at their best. We know that being inclusive
performing against our objectives.. will be at the heart of our success.
Darren Lawler
294741 Service Planning and Delivery, within Service Excellence, is fast paced and challenging, with a
diversity of roles which include Resource Planning, Change Delivery, Performance Insight,
Salary Design and Delivery of customer service, Service Assurance and Response, and Contract
management. These roles are an opportunity to work within the Service Assurance and
These posts are at HEO level. Response community.
The salary range is: These are key roles, and we are looking for people who will help us deliver strategic and
£37,520 - £39,777 (Outer London) short-term demand forecasts for channels including voice, web chat, e-mail and admin for a
£39,150 - £39,777 (London) broad range of Directorates within DWP. This work supports the delivery of DWP’s
performance and organisational strategic goals. Understanding demand drivers and levers
£34,173 - £34,971 (National).
for customer contact is essential to the role and to model this across in the short term,
Civil servants applying on promotion medium- and long-term planning cycles. The data modelling required is a specialist skill that
will usually be appointed to the requires data collation from various sources, both internal and external to derive a pattern of
salary minimum or within 10% of behaviour to accurately predict volumes, including ONS data, DWP workload forecasts, UK
labour market analysis.
existing salary.
The role also encompasses critical relationship management at all levels (up to Director
Level) to articulate and explain forthcoming demand and highlight areas of potential risk.
We welcome applications from candidates who demonstrate the technical, analytical and
communication skills required for this role. See Personal Specification for a full skills
requirement.
The roles available will be based in various sites geographically, aligned with Service
Planning and Delivery strategic locations. Some travel to other locations may be necessary.
Standard promotion rules will apply, and successful candidates will be placed on the pay
scale and terms and conditions of DWP.
Vacancy Description
What are my responsibilities?
As a Channel Forecaster and Modeller, you be responsible for gathering and integrating a diverse and broad range of internal and external
insight and data; creating forecasting methodologies (using excel data model and data analysis formulae) and processes to develop demand
forecasts for telephony, processing volumes and Average Handle Times across DWP products. The role will be an expert domain for intra-day,
short, medium, and long-term telephony forecasts (1-5 year) for DWP product lines. In adherence to DWP standards of behaviours and security
standards, this will be undertaken by:
• Researching and investigating the digital, transformation, policy, and external political, social, economic and media context making
judgement on what’s relevant to forecasting and what isn’t and translating insight into customer contact profiles.
• Proactively and extensively establishing and maintaining internal and external relationships including DWP Strategic Analysts, Senior
Operational Leads DWP Transformation and Digital colleagues and use forecasting expertise to elicit relevant information to inform forecast
production. Ensuring relationships engender ongoing sharing of information as business as usual and as well as allowing forecaster to
inform, challenge and influence thinking.
• Collaboratively working with DWP Strategic Analysts to understand latest external and internal operating context including political and
budget view to gather key insight; share latest modelling techniques and use sound judgement and decision-making translating outputs from
conversations into meaningful forecasts meeting agreed performance expectations.
• Using experience and insight to develop and employ different forecasting methodologies and models to create, develop, validate and
maintain a range of forecasting products, accessing, and analysing data from a broad range of complex MI sources such as Genesis
workforce manager, DWP Strategic forecasts, labour market statistics, external sources, other Government and DWP MI.
• Proactive forecasting of unplanned events where there is little or no historic data to refer to. This requires new models and techniques to be
devised and implemented across the affected services using scenario modelling.
Read more>
• Support the development and maintaining the accuracy of data within the Channel Forecasting reporting systems.
• Using sound judgement to formulate clear and precise narrative alongside the forecasts that serves to act as a record for channel
forecasting rational and decision making as well as providing the recipient a clear picture of forecasting risks and assumptions. Present
forecasts and narrative in a suitable format to a broad range of stakeholders. Quickly assimilating challenges and questions to respond with
confidence.
• Analysing forecast performance outturn to identify and respond to variation in forecast performance and issues in operational delivery that
are impacting on customer service, forecasting, and planning; and present and/or escalate to stakeholders with confidence.
• Flexibly and often within tight deadlines, responding to ad hoc demands for additional forecasts and scenario planning to support DWP
strategic planning and risk management.
• Working independently, and as part of a team of HEO’s and supporting the SEO and G7.
Person specification
What we are looking for
Job Title Essential Criteria:
Channel Forecaster and Modeller
Lead Criteria
Vacancy reference
• Have strong numerical and analytical ability that is sufficient to quickly research, assimilate & analyse
294741 large volumes of complex operational data (historical, current, and future trends) and political, legal,
social economic and media context to provide forecasts and evidence-based narrative/rationale by
Salary using sound judgement and decision making.
These posts are at HEO level. • Demonstrate excellent stakeholder management and communication skills including proven ability to
confidently, enthusiastically and in an inclusive manner, engage widely across a large and diverse
The salary range is: organisation and externally.
£37,520 - £39,777 (Outer London)
£39,150 - £39,777 (London) Other Criteria
£34,173 - £34,971 (National).
• Ability to use a range of different communication channels, demonstrate the ability to effectively
Civil servants applying on promotion summarise and present complex information to a range of different audiences including senior leaders,
will usually be appointed to the confidently responding to challenge as well as successfully challenging thinking and providing different
salary minimum or within 10% of perspectives.
existing salary.
• Can take the initiative and use a pro-active approach building an in-depth understanding of the needs
of the business and impacts on DWP products using well-developed research, data analysis
skills. Demonstrate ability to develop, validate and deliver multi-channel forecasting models for DWP
If there are a high number Operational Directorates using data analysis tools, such as Microsoft Excel, graphs, and pivot tables.
of applications, we will sift
Desirable criteria
against the lead criteria
only. • Knowledge of Visual Basic Applications would be advantageous
• Knowledge of Genesis Work Force Manager (GWFM) or similar systems
• The ability to speak Welsh is desirable for positions based in Wales
Assessment Process
Job Title The selection process will assess both what candidates are good at and what
they enjoy to help us assess candidates’ technical skills, experience,
Channel Forecaster and Modeller behaviours, strengths and their potential. Selection will be by an on-line
assessment, followed by written sift. There will then be a technical exercise
Vacancy reference
and you will be required to present your outcomes at the beginning of a video
294741 interview via MS Teams.
Salary This vacancy is using Success Profiles and will assess your Technical ability,
Behaviours, Strengths and Experience.
These posts are at HEO level.
Stage 1 On-Line Assessment
The salary range is:
£37,520 - £39,777 (Outer London) At the first stage of your application, you will be invited to complete a Civil Service
£39,150 - £39,777 (London) Numeric Test which will assess your numeric/math skills. You will need to pass the
£34,173 - £34,971 (National). on-line test to progress through to written sift and interview. Please complete the
online test as soon as possible (within 24-48 hours is recommended); the closing
Civil servants applying on promotion date for the test and application is 02/07/2023. If you fail to complete the online test
will usually be appointed to the before this deadline, your application will be withdrawn.
salary minimum or within 10% of
Guidance for the test will be available when you are invited to take the test. The
existing salary.
test is administered online and accessed via the CS Jobs website:
Civil Service online tests - GOV.UK
Vacancy reference The selection process will assess both what candidates are good at and what they
enjoy to help us assess candidates’ behaviours, strengths and their potential.
294741
If you’re successful at the written sift stage, a technical exercise will be sent to you
Salary prior to your interview, and you’ll be expected to present your outcomes in a
presentation at the beginning of the interview. This will assess your numeric,
These posts are at HEO level. analytical and technical skills. Any evidence you provide relating to
Communicating and Influencing, will be included in the Behaviour score. Full
The salary range is:
instructions will be sent out with an invitation to interview.
£37,520 - £39,777 (Outer London)
£39,150 - £39,777 (London) It’s important that you complete this exercise by yourself and not receive any
£34,173 - £34,971 (National). support to do so – if it’s found that you haven’t complied with this then your
application will be withdrawn from the exercise.
Civil servants applying on promotion
will usually be appointed to the The interview will last up to 50 minutes (including Presentation) during which you will be
salary minimum or within 10% of assessed against the following Behaviours:
existing salary. Communicating and Influencing
Seeing The Bigger Picture
We will also assess Strengths and Experience during the interview.
Recruitment Process
How to Apply To apply for this post please follow the instructions on the CS Jobs website by no later
than 2/07/2023
You will find some more information about the process which we will be using for this
Civil Service Commission’s
recruitment campaign on the Further Information slide of this presentation. This may
Recruitment Principles
help with your preparation.
Alternative Formats
If you are an existing civil servant and want to know more about transferring to another
Further Information department you should refer initially to your current department’s guidance on transfers
within the civil service. If you have further specific questions about transferring to DWP,
you should contact the vacancy holder.
Recruitment Process
How to Apply Selection for appointment to the Civil Service is on merit, based on fair and open
competition, as outlined in the Civil Service Commission’s Recruitment Principles.
Civil Service Commission’s In accordance with the Civil Service Commissioners’ Recruitment Principles,
Recruitment Principles our recruitment and selection processes are underpinned by the requirement of
Alternative Formats appointment based on merit by fair and open competition. If you feel your
application has not been treated in accordance with the Recruitment Principles and you
wish to make a complaint, you should contact dwprecruitment.grs@cabinetoffice.co.uk
Further Information
in the first instance.
If you are not satisfied with the response you receive, you can contact the Civil Service
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Commission at:
click for more information. civilservicecommission.independent.gov.uk
info@csc.gov.uk
Civil Service Commission, Room G/8, 1 Horse Guards Road SW1A 2HQ.
Recruitment Process
How to Apply If you wish to receive a hard copy of the information, or in an alternative format
e.g., Audio, Braille or large font then please contact: spd.recruitmentadmin@dwp.gov.uk
Civil Service Commission’s
Recruitment Principles
Alternative Formats
Further Information .
On-Line Assessment
There is information on how you can prepare for and practice the tests is on the Gov.uk
website – Civil Service online tests - guidance for candidates Civil Service online tests -
GOV.UK
How to Apply
Personal Statement and CV
Civil Service Commission’s When completing your personal statement, please read and understand the
Recruitment Principles Essential Criteria thoroughly, as this is what your written evidence will be assessed
against. Your layout is entirely your preference; you may choose narrative, bullets, etc. You
Alternative Formats
may choose to address each of the criteria separately, however, one narrative example may
cover and evidence several criteria. You may not be able to meet all the assessment
Further Information criteria, but please ensure you evidence: the key personal requirements and what have you
done that relates to the requirements. You don’t have to explain the whole process, just
what you have done and the skills and experience you have used. Share with us what
The Sift will take place between 29 June 2023 and 7 July 2023.
Blended Interview:
As well as delivering a Presentation, you will be asked a mixture of Experience, Behaviour
and Strength questions. A blended interview aims to be more of a conversation at interview,
offering a more inclusive approach. The Experience, Strength and Behaviour based
questioning explores what the candidate can and has done, but also their potential. The
Civil Service uses a behaviour Framework to assess candidates’, knowledge and skills. The
following link provides you with the behaviour framework you will be assessed against.
Read more>
Recruitment Process Candidates will be expected to present evidence of the following behaviours at interview:
• Communicating & Influencing (Level 3)
• Seeing the Bigger Picture (Level 3)
Move your mouse pointer experience and suitability to this technical role.
over the buttons above and
click for more information. Examples of Strength based questions include:
What motivates you? What do you like doing? What makes this enjoyable?
Can you think of one small manageable step that would improve x for you?
If you have any questions about It is difficult to prepare for strength type questions. However, you can think through your answers,
applying for this role, please contact: focus on your achievements and aspects you enjoy and decide how these can be applied in the
spd.recruitmentadmin@dwp.gov.uk organisation and role.
While strengths questions are shorter and we do not expect a full STAR response, the panel is
interested in your first reaction to the question and information or reasoning to support this.
Welcome Background Vacancy Process Timeline T’s & C’s Using This PDF
Indicative Timeline
Please note that these dates are only indicative at this stage and could
be subject to change.
29/06/2023 - 07/07/2023
Sift period
24/07/2023 to 07/08/2023
Interviews
Insert Insert
(Month/Year) (Month/Year)
Week commencing 11th September
Tenure in post:
Location, Working Arrangements and Salary
Candidates should note that if successful in this campaign, you will be expected to remain in
Range
post for a minimum of 18 months before applying for any other lateral moves within DWP.
Pension
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Working Arrangements
click for more information. Roles are available for full-time, part-time or flexible working arrangements
(including job share arrangements).
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for more options.
Salary Range
The salary range is £37,520 - £39,577 (London) and £34,173 - £34,971
(National).
Civil servants applying on promotion will usually be appointed to the salary
minimum or within 10% of existing salary.
Leave Allowance • Your pension will continue to provide valuable benefits for you and your family if you
are too ill to continue to work or die before you retire.
Training and Development For more information, visit www.civilservicepensionscheme.org.uk.
Other Benefits
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Other Benefits
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Pension We are committed to investing in our staff and offer a range of work-based training
and qualifications, coaching and mentoring opportunities and a guaranteed five
days of learning every year.
Leave Allowance
Other Benefits
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Other Benefits
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Nationality
Security Clearance
Conflicts of Interest
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Conflicts of Interest
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We will not tolerate harassment or other unfair discrimination on the grounds of age, working-
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pattern, disability or long-term health conditions, sex, sexual orientation, pregnancy and
maternity, race, ethnicity, nationality, religion or belief, gender identity expression or
Reserved for UK Nationals reassignment, relationship status, marital status (including equal/same sex marriage) and civil
partnership, caring responsibilities, trade union activity or political beliefs – or any other grounds.
We will promote and support the use of a range of flexible working patterns to enable employees
Conflicts of Interest
to balance home and work responsibilities; and we will treat people fairly irrespective of their
working arrangements. Through our ‘Working Well Together’ wellbeing strategy, we have a
Diversity and Inclusion comprehensive support package to help all our people remain healthy and well.
Civil Service Code Under the terms of the Equality Act 2010, we will always consider making reasonable
adjustments to ensure that disabled people are not disadvantaged in the recruitment and
selection process. We are therefore committed to meeting, wherever possible, any needs you
specify in your application. We will also consider any reasonable adjustments under the terms of
Previous the Act to enable any applicant with a disability (as defined under the Act) to meet the
requirements of the post.
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Nationality DWP and it’s employees have won or been shortlisted for numerous awards in the last few years.
These include; a Hearing Dogs Award, Business in the Community naming DWP one of the UK’s
best employers for Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people, ENEI Inclusive Culture Award
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Winners, Times Top 50 Employers for Women for the 3rd year running, a Championing Lesbian,
Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Intersex (LGBTI) Inclusion Award, a Championing Race Equality
Reserved for UK Nationals Award and a Championing Social Mobility Award. Health and Wellbeing Team – overall winner of
the REBA Employee Wellbeing Award for Mental Wellbeing; shortlisted for Personnel Today and
People Management Wellbeing Awards.
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To navigate through the document, you can use the following buttons:
• at the bottom of the screen - • the interactive contents page, or • the menu bar at the top of the screen
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