SPE-201423-MS

Engineering the Future of Petroleum Engineering and Geoscience

Graduates

Iraj Ershaghi and Donald L. Paul, University of Southern California

Copyright 2020, Society of Petroleum Engineers

This paper was prepared for presentation at the SPE Annual Technical Conference & Exhibition originally scheduled to be held in Denver, Colorado, USA, 5 – 7
October 2020. Due to COVID-19 the physical event was postponed until 26 – 29 October 2020 and was changed to a virtual event. The official proceedings were
published online on 21 October 2020.

This paper was selected for presentation by an SPE program committee following review of information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents
of the paper have not been reviewed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and are subject to correction by the author(s). The material does not necessarily reflect
any position of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, its officers, or members. Electronic reproduction, distribution, or storage of any part of this paper without the written
consent of the Society of Petroleum Engineers is prohibited. Permission to reproduce in print is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words; illustrations may
not be copied. The abstract must contain conspicuous acknowledgment of SPE copyright.

Abstract
Petroleum Engineers and Geoscientists are trained to offer substantive expertise in engineering the
development of subsurface natural resources and the management of their production for commercial
use. These professionals, by their educational training and experience, have specialized knowledge of
subsurface geology, drilling, well completion, subsurface reservoir characterization, reservoir management,
and production operations. They are the most qualified to take on the tasks of locating, mapping, selecting,
monitoring, testing, and managing such operations. These professionals have experienced the pains and
rewards of past several price cycles of oil and gas. The dependence of their employment opportunity on the
inherent volatility of oil and gas prices has created extended periods of employment and career uncertainty,
Adams-Heard, Rachel and Saraiva, Catarina: (2020). However, as we look to the future, new opportunities
may be evolving for these professionals. In this paper, we will frame our discussion of the evolving nature
of the career opportunities for petroleum engineers and geoscientists in the context of three key dimensions:
– The Digital Transformation of the industry.
– Changing educational requirements for petroleum engineering and geoscience.
– Expanding career opportunities for petroleum engineers and geoscientists.
The transformation taking place in oil and gas operations by digital technologies is perhaps the clearest
example of both new opportunities and new challenges being presented to petroleum engineers and
geoscientists. The content knowledge, specific expertise, and experience are essential for the successful
application of rapidly advancing digital technologies, while at the same time displacing many traditional
technical functions. The ongoing energy transition will alter the mix of future energy sources, and changes
in supply and demand will like to continue the era of price volatility; however, hydrocarbons will continue to
be a primary source of supply for the world's fuel and power needs. Critical domain expertise will continue
to be needed for developing, operating, and abandoning oil and gas resources for many decades to come.
The transformation of the energy supply chain will also create new opportunities, such as the re-purposing
of subsurface structures to make them suitable for the storage of energy products or for the safe disposal of
waste. The expertise need will heavily rely on this brand of graduates.
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This includes issues related to subsurface storage of natural gas, oil, and compressed air, hydrogen, and
disposal of carbon dioxide and further focuses on the recovery of geothermal fluids as a non- hydrocarbon
source of energy. Additionally, these subsurface specialists can help with managing the recovery of fresh
subsurface waters for many communities. The future is also like to see the use of hydrocarbons as feedstocks
for advanced industrial materials. In this study, we also discuss the role that the companies and government
organizations can play to ensure attracting talent and maintaining the educational institutions essential for
the professional development of subsurface experts who can address these important and evolving areas.

Introduction
Historically, graduates in petroleum engineering and geosciences have been among the best-paid
professionals in the U.S. industry. Starting salaries, for example, have often been a specific attractor
to the petroleum industry for many engineering students. Their expertise in exploration, extraction, and
production of oil and gas and geothermal resources has helped supply the world's energy needs. The
subsurface specialist typically works on drilling, completion, production, and reservoir management tasks
and subsurface mapping and evaluation methods. Petroleum engineers and geoscience specialists have
contributed to the evolution of the shale boom in the United States and Canada. Petroleum engineering
and geoscientists also keep the world running by bringing to surface the source materials medical, plastics,
and textile industries manufacturers need to produce several hundred products. The capabilities offered by
these specialists have been amazing. The operation has become more technical with drilling deeper wells,
ultra-long reach horizontal wells, high-precision multi-lateral wells, all while dealing with higher pressures
and temperatures and operating under increasingly stringent environmental regulations. Petroleum and
subsurface specialists offer expertise on finding oil, geothermal fluid beneath the earth's surface and evaluate
whether they have economic potential for recovery, transportation, and storage. Their input is essential to
determine if the effort of extracting the resources will make economic sense. Besides extracting energy and
mineral resources from subsurface reservoirs and managing resources, their contribution includes designing
and developing methods for environmental safety issues during production and after the abandonment stage.
Their role is essential in devising the most efficient way to extract subsurface resources via drilled wells by
optimizing drilling and completion issues. In summary, this brand of experts is vital to today's economies.
With a key blend of educational knowledge and field experience, they make the drilling, completion, and
production of subsurface resources safer and more efficient. They abide by compliance laws ensuring the
safest and best practices, established standards, environmental, and safety regulations. Their contribution
has helped U S move into a direction of energy independence.
The global energy system is evolving and diversifying, including a drive for a lower carbon intensity
and scaled-up production of renewable energy sources. But hydrocarbon resources are still essential for
transportation fuels, baseload grid power, and as source materials in many different industrial sectors. The
focus of discussion is what can be done to preserve the expertise required to sustain the petroleum industry.
There is a historical and expected correlation between benchmark oil prices and upstream petroleum industry
employment opportunities. Oil prices drive upstream cash flow and capital investment levels, which in
turn directly impacts the level of drilling and resource development project activity. As industry activity
levels grow in the "booms," it makes the demand for the knowledge and services of petroleum engineers
and geoscientists. Typically, this translates into increased demand for new university graduates with the
education and expertise needed by the industry. This related correlation can be be seen in Figure 1, which
shows the response of petroleum engineering enrollments to oil price variation since 1972. We can also
see from Figure 1 that enrollment trends lag the changes in oil prices and the financial state of industry
investment, Heinze et al. 2019.
SPE-201423-MS 3

Figure 1—Petroleum Engineering Enrollment and Oil Prices (Heinz et al.),

The current industry downturn continues to reflect the long historical trend of booms and busts, as it
is still oilfield economics that determines major capital expenditures by the energy industry that affects
employment stimulation. The current downturn, however, has been amplified by the significant decline in
global oil demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic. While supply and demand will return to balance, these
cycles have created extended periods of industry unemployment for engineers and geoscientists as operators
and service companies pare their professional staff levels to match industry investment levels. This current
cycle of low oil prices and uncertain demand has drastically changed the industry employment levels and,
in turn, changed the opportunity landscape for new petroleum engineering and geoscience graduates. Other
fundamental trends are also impacting industry employment and career opportunities, as we will discuss.
We live in an age where rapid changes are significantly affecting the supply, demand, and structure for
the workforce across almost all industries. A fundamental transition of the modern economy is underway as
the result of major advances in digital technologies and information sciences, A.I. (Artificial Intelligence),
and robotics. Significant impacts are being seen across a broad swath of the manufacturing and service
sectors. We contend that the nature of the oil and gas industry, with its history of utilizing digital information
and its sensitivity to capital and operating costs, is particularly amenable to this Digital Transformation.
The challenge of this transformation is also matched with a broad set of new opportunities for petroleum
engineers and geoscientists who can transition their own expertise and capabilities. As pointed out by
Rapacon (2019), there will be a decline in demand and or transformation for many traditional professions.
With these changes in market conditions, predictions have been made that some professions, including some
specialized forms of engineering, maybe severely impacted or even cease to exist. For example, we have
also seen the virtual elimination of textile engineering and the sharp decline in demand in mining and nuclear
engineering over the past several decades. We will discuss further the implications for petroleum engineers
and geoscientists. For the U.S., as indictaed by Blotnicky et al. (2018), there is also the disconcerting trend
that overall, there is a drop of interest among high schoolers to pursue STEM careers, although interest in
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computer science remains relatively stable. It is essential for SPE as a professional engineering society to
communicate to the population of U.S. high school students that engineering broadly is an exciting and
rewarding career choice. Engineers with a brilliant mind can make a world of difference to society and can
fundamentally change the shape of the future. Combining a drop in the level of engineering graduates and
with the retirement of the existing engineering workforce, all point to the direction that the demand for
engineers must become high. The question here is whether some fields of engineering will also cease to
exist, We need to discuss if there will be a drastic change in demand for engineering and particularly for
petroleum engineering and subsurface specialist and is there a need on a state and national level help to
recruit students and ensure a healthy supply of such specialists.
In this paper, while we specifically focus on education and workforce issues as they relate to the U.S. oil
and gas industry, some of the fundamental trends and issues may also apply to other producing countries,
however, who may find some relevance to their specific cases. In the context of both the current industry
downturn and the ongoing digital transformation, we will first discuss the transformation in university
education and training needed in petroleum engineering and geoscience to ensure that new graduates
are more aligned to the current employment market realities and to position themselves for the future
opportunities of a digitally transformed oil and gas industry. Second is the role of the operating companies,
government agencies, and the society at large to recognize the importance of subsurface engineering experts
as a critical workforce to ensure environmental safety and economic security of the nation. This also means
ensuring adequate supplies of these specialists in the workforce. While in the long term, the state and federal
governments may recognize the risk and provide employment cushions for these specialists. The third issue
is a roadmap of what these specialists can do in the short term and in situations when the employment
conditions for subsurface engineering are not optimal in the oil and gas and associated service companies
and government agencies.

Transformation of Petroleum Engineering Curriculum

The evolution of high-tech industries and the Digital Transformation of traditional industrial sectors (such
as oil and gas) is driving the need for our engineering educational programs to graduate engineers to
augment traditional core knowledge with data science, informatics, and automation skills. In the context
of our industry, discussions in recent years have raised the question of whether our traditional Petroleum
Engineering schools are developing their graduates to be creative problem solvers. They can capture both
new opportunities in petroleum careers and potentially be employable in other industries. Bobo and Reece
(1999) describe the competency matrices that have been published by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
In these summaries, what is expected from a practicing Petroleum Engineers is spelled out in several
disciplines. A large portion of that level of expectation can be or will be subject to the forces of Digital
Transformation, for example, AI-assisted solutions in other areas such as formation evaluation, data-driven
reservoir modeling, and optimizing production operations. However, while much of the specific technical
expertise in other sub-areas can benefit from advancing data science and computational analytics, what
cannot be replaced are core engineering and geoscience knowledge and experienced-based skills of our
graduates and industry professionals. These include the analytical skills and direct experiences that are
essential to complex planning and decision making, addressing the economic, environmental, and societal
aspects of project development and field operations, engineering ethics, and other advanced problem-
solving skills. The human element can be expected to interject creativity in handling unique aspects of any
operations and bring about the dimensions of the collaboration aspects for resolving design and testing
issues.
SPE-201423-MS 5

Education for the Next Generation of the Digital Oilfield

Much has been written about the digital transformation taking place in the petroleum Industry. As discussed
by Unneland and Hauser(2005). Langely, (2006) and Ershaghi et al. (2017), the industry, beginning about
the year 2000, began the "Digital Oilfield" era by leveraging the growth of digital technologies to expand the
scope of operational and subsurface measurements vastly. Today we see the next generation of the Digital
Oilfield focused on Big Data Analytics, increasingly powered by advances in A.I. and machine learning to
improve investment decisions, drilling performance, asset management, and, most importantly, today, cost
management and operational efficiency. Even in the midst of the severe downturn, companies are attempting
to advance digital transformation initiatives to permanently reduce costs and raise the productivity of their
assets and workforces. For example, the industry is seeing continued growth in oilfield automation and
the introduction of robotics in many applications – all directed at raising productivity and positioning
the industry to recover without raising future costs and workforce levels. We believe this has significant
implications for petroleum engineering and geoscience education and our graduates. This trend has affected
preparation plans by the students preparing themselves to get into the industry. Many are pursuing additional
credentials in data science and digital oilfield technologies. These technologies are now making it possible
to monitor large operations better, track and offer timely management of equipment failure areas and digest
more information from history that can help in the cost-effective management of various operations. The
next generation of digital oilfield technologies is also bringing to oilfield operations the issues about cyber-
security, once reserved for I.T. specialists, as increased levels of oilfield automation force a convergence
of I.T. with O.T. (Operations Technology). We believe that the next generation of the Digital Oilfield must
be designed, implemented, and led by petroleum engineers and geoscientists who have deep expertise and
experience in how oil and gas assets and operations work. But to take this leadership position, we need
to evolve and augment our traditional educational programs to provide the digital knowledge and skillsets
required. The need to update the curriculums of Petroleum Engineering and to include competencies in
data sciences has been discussed by Ershaghi and Omoregie (2005) and Ersaghi and Paul (2017) and in the
annual meetings of PEDHA (Petroleum Engineering Department Head Association), Feder (2019). Some
schools have made changes in their curriculums, and the graduating engineers also look at various ways to
improve their data- sciences competencies.

Developing Skills in Risk and Uncertainty Management

The art and science of petroleum engineering are managing the complex processes of drilling, completion,
resource recovery, and field operations, often with limited data and models. An essential part of the
subsurface engineering and production operation is assessing the economic feasibility of subsurface
resource storage, extraction, and recovery given often limited data. Unique to petroleum engineers and
subsurface experts is the inherent uncertainties regarding the detailed nature of the resource, for example,
to evaluate subsurface reservoirs to determine their extraction profitability. Part of the challenge is also
using expertise in improved extraction techniques to maximize the recovery factor. This includes examining
the geology of drilling sites, planning the safest and most efficient method of drilling and completion,
and recovering the subsurface resource in environmentally safe manners. This can extend later to the
maintenance and operation of equipment. These experts also manage production and develop corrective
methods of stimulation to enhance productivity. They further render their expertise in troubleshooting issues
related to flowing wells or those under the artificial lift and help in solving operational problems.
In many fields of engineering, the models and parameters are generally well known, and it is often
primarily a matter of applying well-developed computations to produce a design for implementation. Many
tasks can be automated when factors can be measured, when highly predictive models are developed and
when there is limited uncertainty. Current advances in the automated manufacturing of many parts and
pieces offer good examples of such engineering applications. While oilfield facilities designs can often
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follow a similar methodology, we know that subsurface engineering requires engineers and geoscientists to
have a well-developed understanding of risk to develop and execute a field development plan. We know
that the information abundance per se does not necessarily mean certainty. The abundance of information
can lead to a sense of overconfidence that can lead to improper application of information. It takes an
expert understanding of recognizing an information deficiency assessment by evaluating them in terms of
relevance, completeness, consistency, and other considerations. If we define uncertainty as predicting the
future based on the physical measurements, both the information limitation and abundance and ignorance
can contribute to a sense of uncertainty. One needs to be concerned about the limited capacity of the human
mind to deal with complexity and information deficiency. Computers can bring about access to historical
databases but cannot handle a higher order of knowledge deficiency or ignorance. Part of the educational
training of these petroleum engineering and geoscience expertise is handling risk with limited information.

Maintaining Critical Capabilities: A Role for State and Federal Governments

Energy security affects the economic viability of our nation, and the economy influences our national
security. This requires general investments in science, engineering, research and development, and
technological leadership. The evolving field of energy geotechnics involves the use of principles to
engineering the coupled thermo-hydro-chemo-mechanical processes for storing and protecting energy
resources in the subsurface. We must realize the importance of subsurface engineering and the significance
of operations related to oil and gas production, storage, transportation, and safety, as well as economic
viability and national security. There are corrective actions that are needed that can bring a level of
permanent stability in recruiting talents and preserving this type of expertise and the schools that prepare
such individuals.
The COVID-19 pandemic showed the importance of having adequate health professionals to attend the
health management of millions of patients. In studies published in Human Resources for Health, Liu et
al. (2017) indicated a severe shortage of health professionals. We can now see a shortage of subsurface
specialists if steps are not taken to train and employ such professionals. Energy security can be the U
S next crisis. Currently, the security of the economy depends on adequate supplies of domestic energy
production. We need the important contribution that the subsurface specialists can make in the preservation
of subsurface energy resources. Their expertise is also needed for subsurface storage of strategic supplies of
oil and gas, for subsurface sequestration of carbon dioxide and storage of hydrogen from renewables, and
for the environmentally safe design of producing wells from birth to abandonment onshore and offshore.
Also, the management of orphan and abandoned well is and will be a major task for state governments.
We maintain that because it is the matter of national security to preserve economic security, the
government also has a role to play. That role is maintaining a credible workforce with expertise in subsurface
engineering. The involvement of government in maintaining a subsurface expert workforce can help to
attract a new generation of geoscientists and petroleum engineers, serve as a cushion, and help to eliminate
the traditional cyclical nature of hiring by oil and gas producing companies. The U.S. Government at
state and federal levels play important roles in environmental protection and managing natural resources.
Many government agencies at state and federal levels are responsible for protecting subsurface resources of
minerals, hydrocarbon, and water and geothermal and natural resources located onshore and offshore. The
management includes balancing the demand for greater use of these resources with the need to conserve
and protect them for the benefit of future generations and proper abandonment of developed resources.
Both state and federal agencies can include measures to sustain a critical workforce in overseeing the
management of these resources. At the Federal level, the Department of Energy and the Interior Department
and even Department of Defense, in particular, can devise means to recruit new students and emphasize
the maintenance of a critical subsurface specialist workforce who are employed for their expanded role in
managing subsurface resources.
SPE-201423-MS 7

Preserving the supply and maintaining the domestic production is to the benefit of the national security
interest of the U S. With the past major investment in the development of renewables, we are still decades
away before we can have an affordable non-oil and gas-based substitution for motor fuels, jet fuels,
and other petroleum-derived products. Even then, we need subsurface specialists to manage subsurface
energy storage, well abandonment, and site management. Well, and field abandonments are definitely areas
where input from petroleum engineers and geoscientists is necessary for long term environmental safety.
In summary, the state and federal governments’ roles in cushioning the employment issues needs to be
recognized.
The COVID-19 experience has shown that the country and the economy can be extremely vulnerable to
these unpredicted disruption-causing effects. It has truly been very alarming as to how a disruption caused
by health concerns affects the way we conduct the economy. It can destroy jobs, professions, and businesses
and become a major national liability. The availability of affordable energy is the cornerstone of economic
viability. The heath industries, I.T. industries, and transportation all need reliable and affordable sources of
energy. Currently, even a limited disruption in the oil and gas supply can also have had similarly devastating
effects as a crisis. Oil and gas for the foreseeable future will constitute a major part of the energy basket.

Immediate Steps and Other Employment Opportunities

The Covid-19 pandemic and the associated economic impacts have upended the employment prospects
for all students and graduates. It has become a major challenge for all graduates to plan for an uncertain
economic future and has brought a new dimension to the discussion. The situation has become particularly
acute for petroleum engineering and geoscience students as the combination of demand destruction, and
supply/demand imbalance has severely depressed global oil prices, curtailing industry investments, inducing
sharp staffing reductions, and greatly limiting new graduate hiring. The unprecedented restrictions on work
environments have also drastically and perhaps permanently changed the way individuals work and how
both public and private organizations operate.
Traditionally, to offer their expertise, petroleum engineering graduates and geoscientists were expected to
mainly serve one industry – the petroleum industry and its associated field service companies and suppliers.
Recruiting new talent into the educational system has been historically based on the premise that even
though the traditional boom and bust cycles, there will always be employment opportunities with a large
critical industry that supplied the majority share of fuels and products for transportation, power generation,
and industrial processes. The enormous growth of U.S. shale production over the past decade has led to
a material re-alignment of the domestic oil and gas industry, independent E&P companies becoming the
primary operators and employers, along with service companies supporting shale resource development.
The large integrated majors continued to play a steady role in new graduate hires but were not the primary
source of employment demand. As the boom turned to bust, the traditional contraction cycle has begun, but
perhaps amplified and altered by the combination of the industry restructuring, the beginning impacts of
diversification of the energy systems, and the emergence of new information-based technologies deployed
to drive down costs. We believe this has direct implications for petroleum engineering and geoscience
graduates and today's educational system.
While we are seeing some students at the graduate level moving to enhance and diversify their
capabilities, the main question is what the rest of graduates should do when the outlook for employment
at E&P operators and oilfield service companies is currently so uncertain? The answer is for the graduates
to fully realize how to utilize their qualifications. If we examine the curriculum requirements at many
schools, there are other opportunities for these graduates to market their expertise. As an example,
petroleum engineering graduates take as much and sometimes even more courses in chemistry, physics,
thermodynamics, fluid mechanics as many other fields of engineering. The chemistry education can lead
be expertise they can market to positions in chemical laboratories, they know fluid mechanics, and that
8 SPE-201423-MS

can lead them in fluid transportation industries, including midstream oil and gas operations. Because they
know subsurface geology and that can also lead them in geological engineering related to soil properties
and foundation work. They know economics, and that can be an asset to the investment industry, they know
drilling and that can lead them to join in water well drilling companies, they know thermodynamic, and that
can help them to work for many manufacturers. Of course, they can always teach in high schools or junior
colleges, depending on their qualifications. Granted that the salaries are not as much as they can earn, in oil
and gas jobs, but these alternatives can be available to pass through the storms. Once the graduates recognize
their engineering and computational skills, they can find new directions to offer their expertise. We believe
it is an essential new responsibility of our petroleum engineering educational programs to actively engage
with our students, with a much broader set of industry and government, to help them expand their career
horizons. We give a specific example of the opportunities for new applications of petroleum engineering
and geoscience expertise in the following example on geological storage.

New Applications of Subsurface Expertise: Example - Subsurface Storage

Kuhna et al. (2014), McCarthy and Sanchez (2016)., Ma et al. (2018), and Shi et a;. (2020) have discussed
the opportunities subsurface reservoirs offer for storage of gas and oil. Suitable subterranean reservoirs can
be used to store carbon dioxide and can also be a solution for the load-balancing of intermittent electricity
production from renewable energy sources. In brief, surplus electricity is used to power electrolyzes that
produce hydrogen, which can then be stored in subsurface formations for use when renewable electricity
is not available. Storage of high-level radioactive waste in subsurface geologic structures is also one of
the viable solutions considered by the nuclear industry. This solution also requires the most input from
subsurface experts. Formal educational components, especially at the graduate level, can include this
dimension.

Figure 2—Subsurface Storage of CO2 and Hydrogen(credit D Swantek, LBL).

Conclusions
in this paper, we have argued that the competencies and expertise provided by petroleum engineers and
geoscientists are essential components in providing economic well-being and for the national security for
SPE-201423-MS 9

the U.S. through the support of a robust oil and gas industry. We have emphasized the need to evolve our
petroleum engineering and geoscience educational programs to ensure that these specialized knowledge
graduates are positioned to meet the market realities of today's oil and gas industry. The graduates need to
know how to integrate the digital technologies of today and tomorrow and be flexible enough to move into
new application areas of their expertise. Industry and governments have intersecting roles in the successful
and sustainable management of our natural resources and the security of our energy supply system. As
such, there can be a role for state and federal governmental agencies to play in supporting recruiting, the
education and employment of petroleum engineering and geoscientists where their expertise and experience
can be more broadly applied for societal benefit. Besides the fundamental training in Data Science areas,
the schools need to include components that help the graduates to realize the value of their expertise in
other fields such as environmental safety, subsurface storage, and groundwater hydrology. An expansion
of this employment pathway could also aid in the stabilization and diversification of careers for petroleum
engineers and geoscientists and to ensure their critical capabilities are maintained for the benefit of the
society.

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