Horizon To Horizon

Horizon to
horizon
A Pacific Island country guide to
creating long term climate resilience,
net zero emissions development and
a sustainable future.
ClimateWorks
AUSTRALIA
Founding partners Monash University

and The Myer Foundation
Why would Pacific Island
countries develop a long term
low emissions pathway?
All countries are economically, geographically In addition to reasons outlined in “Why develop
and socially diverse, and many Pacific 2050 pathways?”, there are specific advantages
Island countries face unique challenges and of low emissions development for Pacific
vulnerabilities, resulting from a combination of Islands countries:
factors such as having small, open economies,
a narrow resource base, disadvantages in ++ HOLISTIC LONG TERM PL ANNING:
economies of scale, remoteness, high export By undertaking mid-century planning
concentration, high dependency on imports across the key policy areas of mitigation,
with high vulnerability to energy and food adaptation, climate resilience and sustainable
price shocks and speculation, and relatively development, countries can design and
high levels of national debt. implement a pathway that considers the
interactions, synergies and trade-offs of all
This diversity demands that countries chart its national priorities. This holistic planning
their own path towards a desirable, prosperous approach supports achievement of an optimal
and sustainable future - one where the leaders development trajectory over the long term, and
and people with most at stake are able to look can guide short and medium term planning
from ‘horizon to horizon’, share knowledge and goals (e.g. NDCs, National Adaptation
and expertise, learn from others’ experiences Plans, national development plans, etc.),
and build on this. A pathway will ensure long as well as improve alignment across these
term planning informs near term decisions by often separate planning processes. It can also
considering the full implications - including provide a framework for increased cooperation
both the opportunities and risks - of each between different ministries, and between
alternative solution. government and civil society, and highlight
opportunities for policy harmonisation.
As the Barbados Declaration and the S.A.M.O.A
Pathway state, there is “the need to achieve ++ ENERGY SECURIT Y:
sustainable development by promoting Pacific Island countries (PICs) are highly
sustained, inclusive and equitable economic dependent on imported fossil fuels to meet
growth”. Pathways explore the opportunity their energy needs. Such dependency can
to achieve this by enabling “individual debilitate national budgets and revenues,
governments to design policy responses to the impacting on key productive sectors in the
climate challenge that are appropriate to their region. By taking a long term view, pathways
broader socio-economic objectives”. enable a country to make considered
decisions on key infrastructure investments by
comparing alternative solutions against their
long-term implications, thus supporting a
transition towards energy independence.
2 HORIZON TO HORIZON
W H Y W O U L D PA C I F I C I S L A N D C O U N T R I E S D E V E L O P A L O N G T E R M
L O W E M I S S I O N S PA T H W AY ?
++ AVOIDING ‘LO CK-IN’ AND ‘LO CK-OUT’: ++ ADAP TATION / MITIGATION CO-BENEFIT S
A mid-century pathway that includes an AND TR ADE-OFF S:
ambitious climate mitigation goal can inform Tackling adaptation and mitigation together
short and medium term investment decisions, can create “win-win” outcomes and
and help countries avoid stranding assets or efficiencies as both take a long term view
locking in higher levels of emissions in long- to avoid locking in vulnerability and risk.
lived infrastructure and assets. It can also Considering them in parallel also supports
ensure that key opportunities for achieving identification of potential trade-offs (where
net zero emissions over the long term aren’t mitigation actions may undermine adaptation
‘locked out’, for example by ensuring mangrove or resilience efforts), providing an opportunity
forests are protected to maintain carbon sinks to manage, minimise or avoid trade-offs
that may be needed to achieve net zero. which might not be identified if adaptation
and mitigation planning remain separate
++ RE SILIENCE: processes. This is particularly important where
The Framework for Resilient Development adaptation and climate resilience are currently
in the Pacific (FRDP) notes that pursuing considered in the short and medium term only,
low carbon development will not only such as through National Adaptation Planning.
bring about energy security and resilient
energy infrastructure, it will also increase ++ PIPELINE OF PROJECTS:
the conservation of terrestrial and marine Pathways can be used to highlight gaps and
ecosystems. The Majuro Declaration makes identify near-term priority actions for funding
clear the mitigation opportunities for the from the international donor community.
Pacific, outlining how the necessary energy From an aid donor’s perspective, financing for
revolution and economic transformation that climate change programs that also contribute
will come with low-carbon development will to poverty reduction and development
provide the Pacific with an unprecedented objectives can reduce the risk of fragmenting
opportunity to enhance their “security (as funding sources.
well as) protect and ensure sustainability of
our natural resources and environment and... ++ ECONOMIC RE SILIENCE AND PL ANNING:
improve our people’s health.” Long term development and climate safe
pathways can provide a framework to
++ SHOWC A SE P OTENTIAL: inform short and medium term economic
Pathways provide an opportunity to management and development planning.
demonstrate leadership in inclusive, low By taking a holistic view, pathways can help
carbon development. PICs can use the final to build economic resilience and foster new
product to build profile through increasingly opportunities for economic growth and jobs
visible regional centres such as the Pacific creation, such as ‘blue carbon’ industries,
Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy renewables and energy efficiency.
Efficiency, and global island networks such
as the AOSIS-led SIDS DOCK. Insights from
A long term low emissions pathway will only
the Pacific Islands can be applied to help
be successful if it is supported by all key
other nations striving to accelerate low
stakeholders in the process, and it delivers
emissions development. Together, PICs could
on multiple objectives. The result then can be
have significant impact in calling for greater
transformative, not just for a country’s economy
climate ambition from the world’s largest
and infrastructure, but for its sustainable
emitters. By voluntarily submitting pathways
development, energy systems, the health and
to the UNFCCC under Article 4.19 of the Paris
wellbeing of its population and its participation
Agreement, PICs can ‘walk the talk’ and
in a global climate safe future.
demonstrate the social, environmental and
economic wins, heightening the imperative
for other countries to increase ambition.
HORIZON TO HORIZON 3
Executive Summary
In addition to their Nationally Determined The pathways process within this guide is
Contributions (NDCs), the Paris Agreement designed to amplify and harmonise existing
invited countries to submit long term low GHG short and medium term planning effort, reduce
emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) reporting burden and outline a credible pathway
by 2020. These strategies will provide countries to decarbonisation and economic prosperity.
with the opportunity to address three pressing Some steps, for instance, will support policy
and interrelated policy areas; ambitious GHG makers to think through the synergies and
mitigation, adaptation and climate resilient trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation
development. For Pacific Island countries this actions recommended in existing strategic
is particularly relevant. Exposed to extreme plans (e.g. Master Energy Plans and National
weather events and significant climate impacts, Adaptation Action Plans) over a longer time
many Pacific Island countries have small, open frame. Others outline a process to convene
economies, a narrow resource base and the stakeholders from a range of economic sectors
challenges of geographic remoteness. And so any and establish national scenarios bringing
workable Pacific pathway needs to deliver multiple together economic, climate resilience and
solutions through a more holistic approach. sustainable development aspirations over
different time horizons or levels of investment.
Ideally therefore, LT-LEDS should support Pacific
Island country leaders in the development of an Ideally, pathways are intended to focus on a
integrated strategy to design and implement 2050 (or mid-century) time horizon, and a high
a mid-century net zero or very low greenhouse ambition climate mitigation goal. This is key for
gas emissions pathway that also supports moving climate action and socio-economic goals
poverty reduction, climate resilience and other beyond the incremental to the transformative.
sustainable development objectives. It is also key to ensuring that short and medium
targets and goals are consistent with long term
This guide seeks to do just that. It presents an ambition (for example, NDCs focus on 2025 or
illustrative planning process that aims to support 2030 and NAPs typically focus on a five year time
the achievement of mid-century ambitious horizon), and for avoiding ‘lock-in’ and ‘lock-out’
climate action alongside other socio-economic of emissions reduction opportunities.
goals. It is specifically tailored to Pacific Island
country audiences, but is also informed by When coupled with strong national ownership,
the experience of country teams involved in the development of an ambitious mid-century
the Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project, a pathway can guide policy and investment
global collaborative seeking to demonstrate decisions, sending long term market signals
how developed and developing countries can for entrepreneurs, investors and development
all successfully transition to very low carbon partners to support your country to build
economies, while maintaining economic growth comparative economic advantage in a rapidly
and achieving other sustainable development decarbonising world. A pathway can also inform
outcomes. The guide is also designed to the NDC review process, identifying opportunities
complement the ‘2050 Pathways: A Handbook’ to increase ambition and importantly,
and ‘Why develop 2050 pathways?’ fact sheet, highlighting risks of ‘lock-in’ and ‘lock-out’
both developed by the 2050 Pathways Platform. (particularly in sectoral targets included in
NDCs), as well as informing medium term
climate adaptation and development planning.
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A RY
THE ‘FOUR PILL AR S’ OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
Horizon to horizon draws specifically on the work or low carbon electricity, and electrification and
of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project fuel switching (e.g. switching from fossil fuels to
(DDPP), to ensure that all possible opportunities clean electricity in manufacturing processes, or
for reducing GHG emissions are considered across shifting from diesel to biodiesel in transport).
all sectors of the economy. In each sector, the The fourth pillar identifies opportunities to reduce
pathways approach looks at four distinct types or sequester non-energy emissions from industry,
of actions or ‘pillars’ to reduce emissions. waste, agriculture, forests and ‘blue carbon’
The first three pillars relate to energy supply and ecosystems, critical to achieving very low,
use; ambitious energy efficiency, shifting to zero net zero, or even negative emissions.
Figure 1: The four pillar approach recommended to support deep decarbonisation strategic planning
REDUCE ENERGY USE SWITCH TO CLE ANER FUEL S
Choose equipment and assets that Once electricity is powered by

use less energy and get more out clean energy, switch every energy-
of the energy that is used in areas using activity you possibly can to
such as buildings, manufacturing, electricity and everything else to low
transport and infrastructure. emissions alternatives (e.g. from
diesel to biodiesel in transport).
PRODUCE CLE ANER SORT OUT AND STORE THE REST

ELECTRICIT Y Reduce non-energy emissions like
Transition electricity generation agriculture and refrigerant gases
away from imported fossil fuels and capture and store remaining
to cleaner, locally produced low emissions through actions like
emissions sources such as solar, restoring forests and blue-carbon
wind, hydro and bioenergy. ecosystems.
CO-BENEFIT S ++ Switching from fossil fuels to cleaner forms

of energy (e.g. moving transport and
++ Ambitious energy efficiency across all sectors
manufacturing processes from diesel to
significantly reduces the energy intensity of
electricity or - where potential for sustainable
the economy, boosting energy productivity
domestic biofuel production exists - biodiesel)
and typically delivering financial and
can improve energy independence and can
economic savings.
support the growth of local industries.
++ Shifting from fossil fuels to renewable
++ And addressing non-energy emissions can
electricity improves energy security, can
turn waste into energy, boost agricultural
reduce the cost of electricity, and can
productivity and resilience, deliver biodiversity
improve air quality and health outcomes.
benefits, and create new opportunities for
‘blue carbon’ economies.
About this guide
Horizon to horizon outlines a step by step In tailoring this guide for Pacific Island
approach to support Pacific Island countries countries, several practical, country
to realise your own pathway to a prosperous, specific case studies were identified and
equitable and sustainable net zero emissions included to share real-world stories and build
future. It is the result of a detailed process of understanding through the learnings of others.
dialogue and exchange, building on extensive These case studies document the experiences of
experience applying the internationally Fiji in developing its high ambition 2050 strategy
recognised Deep Decarbonization Pathways and the Republic of the Marshall Islands in
Project (DDPP) framework to design developing its 2050 electricity roadmap.
ambitious 2050 net zero pathways.
++ The guide aims to reduce planning fatigue
and harmonise existing policy and planning
This has evolved into a pathway planning
efforts, by drawing on existing frameworks
guide specifically relevant to government
and analysis that support scenario planning.
representatives and planning consultants in
These include the ‘Framework for Resilient
Pacific Island countries, through a number
Development in the Pacific’, the ‘Pacific Climate
of key steps: Change Finance Assessment Framework’ and
the emerging ‘Pacific NDC Hub’.
++ Between December 2017 and July 2018 in
Suva, Fiji, a series of meetings were held with
a range of national and regional government By taking the long view in co-designing,
organisations and technical experts. These developing and implementing a pathway plan
interviews were designed to develop a greater to 2050, you will be able to create shorter term
understanding of the unique challenges and check ins and measure progress against your
opportunities and regional operating context country’s Nationally Determined Contribution
for Pacific Island countries (PICs), as well as (NDC). Together, these climate actions are
lessons from current planning efforts. central to the UNFCCC’s Paris Agreement goal
of limiting global temperature rise to well below
++ The interviews also examined the engagement 2 degrees, and aiming for 1.5 degrees celsius
preferences of different stakeholders, and above pre-industrial levels. At the individual
captured learnings from knowledge exchange country level, a long term pathway will allow
processes focused on building technical the investments, policies, decision making and
capacity and buy in to climate solutions or action essential for the success of this goal.
whole of economy planning.
++ Research also included collating and assessing Many have helped bring this guide together,
existing guidance on the development of with the final result compiled and written by
Low Emissions Development Strategies (LEDS). ClimateWorks Australia. We hope it will provide
This encompassed capacity assessment you with a helpful framework for decision
approaches, and a broad range of Pacific making and action in designing, building and
frameworks and plans that are used to implementing your country’s own long term
inform government decision-making and pathway to a thriving, equitable, low emissions
donor funding. and resilient economy.
About the authors
ClimateWorks Australia is an expert, independent

adviser, acting as a bridge between research and
action to enable new approaches and solutions
that accelerate the transition to net zero
emissions for Australia and Asia Pacific.
It was co-founded in 2009 by The Myer Foundation

and Monash University and works within the
Monash Sustainable Development Institute.
ClimateWorks Australia also benefits from strong ACKNOWLED GEMENT S

relationships with an international network of
We thank 2050 Pathways Platform and
affiliated organisations that support effective
The Institute for Sustainable Development and
policies, financing and action for greenhouse
International Relations (IDDRI) for their generous
gas emissions reductions.
support towards the development of this guide.
Since launch, ClimateWorks has made
This guide has been developed as a key resource
significant progress, engaging key decision
for the ‘Pacific 2050 Pathways Package’ which
makers from all tiers and sides of politics
was launched at COP 23 alongside the Fiji
and business. Our collaborative, end-to-end
Presidency to support and build capacity within
approach to solutions that will deliver greatest
the Pacific Small Island Developing States to
impact is informed by a thorough understanding
develop their respective strategy and enable
of the constraints of governments and the
them to carry forward the legacy of ‘Majuro
practical needs of business. This, combined
Declaration for Climate Leadership’.
with philanthropic funding and university ties,
has earned the organisation an outstanding
We also acknowledge the insights shared by
reputation as a genuine and impartial adviser.
key stakeholders during development of this
guide and the related ‘Pacific Island Strategic
In the pursuit of its mission, ClimateWorks
Adaptation, Mitigation and Resilience Tool
looks for innovative opportunities to reduce
(SMART)’, received through the stakeholder
emissions, analysing their potential then building
consultation process. In particular, Ministerial
an evidence-based case for action through a
representatives from Fiji, technical consultants
combination of robust research and analysis,
working with The Republic of the Marshall
clear and targeted engagement, and effective
Islands, as well as technical experts within the
capacity strengthening. We support decision
Pacific Island Forum Secretariat, United Nations
makers with tailored information and the tools
Development Program, Global Green Growth
they need, as well as work with key stakeholders
Institute, Secretariat of the Pacific Regional
to remove obstacles and help facilitate conditions
Environment Programme, Pacific Community
that encourage and support the transition to a
(SPC), Pacific Island Development Forum, IDDRI,
prosperous, net zero emissions future.
Climate Analytics, World Resources Institute
and Griffith University.
Acronyms
AOSIS IC AT LTS SD Gs
Alliance of Small Initiative for Climate Long Term Strategies Sustainable
Island States Action Transparency Development Goals
NAP
COP IND C National SIDs D O CK
Conference of Intended Nationally Adaptation Plans Small Island
the Parties Determined Developing States
Contribution ND C Dock, an initiative to
DDPP Nationally connect the energy
Deep Decarbonization LECRD Determined sector in SIDS with
Pathways Project Low-Emissions Contribution (add the global market for
Climate-Resilient UNFCCC context) finance, sustainable
GDP Development energy technologies
Gross Domestic ODI and international
Product LEDS Overseas carbon markets
Low Emissions Development
GHG Development Institute UNFCCC
Greenhouse Gas Strategies United Nations
PIC Framework
LT-LEDS Pacific Island Country Convention on
IAP2
Long Term Climate Change
International
Association for Low Emissions P SIDS
Public Participation Development Pacific Small Island
Strategies (add Developing States
UNFCCC context)
A NOTE ON TERMINOLO GY:
A number of terms are used to describe the Rather than be prescriptive, this guide outlines a
process of developing long term net zero or low best practice approach that draws on elements
emissions strategies. These include Long Term from a number of these approaches. As such, it
Strategies (LTS), Low Emissions Development uses the term ‘pathways’ as an all encompassing
Strategies (LEDS), Long Term Low Emissions term to describe long term (mid-century or
Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), Deep 2050), net zero or very low GHG emissions,
Decarbonization Pathways (DDP), Low-Emission climate resilient and sustainable development
Climate-Resilient Development (LECRD), net zero pathways that provide “an opportunity to explore
and low carbon strategies. While all approaches long-term policy and technology options without
consider actions to address climate change - the constraints of near-term inertia”.
often in parallel with socio-economic development
outcomes - there are nuances to each approach.
Contents
H O W TO U S E T H I S G U I D E 10
D E S I G N I N G YO U R PAT H WAY 12
ST E P 1: B U I L D T H E R I G H T PAT H WAY S T E A M 14
ST E P 2 : P L A N F O R STA K E H O L D E R E N GAG E M E N T 16
ST E P 3 : A SS E SS ‘ R E A D I N E SS ’ FO R PAT H WAY D E V E LO P M E N T 28
ST E P 4: S E T T H E N A R R AT I V E 34
ST E P 5: D E V E LO P A N D I T E R AT E S C E N A R I O S 42
ST E P 6: S O C I A L I S E LO N G T E R M PAT H WAY S 48
ST E P 7: A N A LY S E B A R R I E R S A N D I D E N T I F Y S O LU T I O N S 52
ST E P 8: D E V E LO P A PAT H WAY I M P L E M E N TAT I O N P L A N 54
G LO SS A RY 60
How to use this guide
Specifically developed for use by Pacific Island USING THE GUIDE, PARTICIPANTS C AN:
countries, this step by step guide complements
the ‘2050 Pathways: A Handbook’ of the 1. Appoint a pathway team and
2050 Pathways Platform, applying tools and a pathway Advisory Group
resources created by the DDPP network
and other LEDS approaches. 2. Understand stakeholder expectations
It communicates the rationale and usefulness of 3. Assess your country’s ‘readiness’

to develop a pathway
long term, low emissions development planning
processes and provides a practical, step by step 4. Establish a narrative to guide
guide to building and implementing a country scenario development
specific, long term pathway. 5. Identify mitigation options with
Horizon to horizon is intended to be utilised co-benefits for adaptation and other
sustainable development outcomes
by government representatives and planning
consultants. Each country’s own leaders and 6. Iteratively test and socialise the
key advisers will bring deep knowledge of the scenario outputs
policies, plans and frameworks already in 7. Evaluate and address policy, investment
use nationally and regionally. The guide also and capacity barriers; and finally
incorporates the engagement interests and
8. Develop an implementation action
preferences of participants at the beginning
plan that also considers financing
of the process. All steps are iterative, and their
output should be tested and reviewed by key
stakeholders throughout the process.
Stakeholders, including government
The guide describes an eight step process that
representatives and the pathway Advisory
delivers a series of interlinked, consensus based
Group, are engaged at each step through
outputs to guide policy development. The end-
an iterative process that is designed to build
to-end format of the steps encourages Pacific
ownership and strengthen capacity.
leaders to collaborate with technical experts
and develop a dashboard that quantifies the Following the process outlined in this guide
impact of mitigation actions on key indicators will deliver a pathway that helps identify
related to emissions, economic prosperity mitigation actions which include adaptation
(such as GDP, jobs created, reduction in and resilience co-benefits. Such a pathway will
import dependency, energy security) and also support implementation action planning
socio-economic outcomes (such as poverty that strengthens capacity in key sectors,
alleviation, greater health and wellbeing, supports enabling policy and investment
improved energy access, environmental conditions, and delivers a project pipeline
services and adaptation/resilience). that can unlock scalable investment.
HOW TO USE THIS GUIDE
1
The Pathway Process
BUILD THE
PATHWAYS TE AM
2 PL AN FOR
STAKEHOLDER
ENGAGEMENT
PA T H W AY
P R E PA R A T I O N
3 A SSE SS
“RE ADINE SS”
4 SE T THE
NARR ATIVE
5 DE VELOP + ITER ATE

S CENARIOS
PA T H W AY
DEVELOPMENT
6 S O CIALISE LONG
TERM PATHWAYS
7
ANALYSE BARRIER S +
IDENTIF Y S OLUTIONS
PA T H W AY
I M P L E M E N TAT I O N
HORIZON TO HORIZON
8 DE VELOP AN
IMPLEMENTATION
PL AN
11
Designing your pathway
PRINCIPLE S COMMON TO ALL ++ Socio-economic, adaptation, resilience and

PATHWAY PRO CE SSE S emissions objectives are considered side by
side as integral parts of the analysis. This can
The subsequent sections of this guide outline support informed decision making to optimise
an eight step process to develop a pathway, outcomes across multiple national objectives,
represented visually below. Across each step, highlight opportunities to harmonise policy
several guiding principles can help ensure your and help reduce the reporting burden.
pathway is relevant, practical and credible. ++ Ensuring that the research questions,
objectives and boundary considerations of
These include: the analysis are clearly defined early in the
process, and the analytical toolkit selected
++ Iterative stakeholder engagement, to ensure will best support these outcomes.
pathway development follows a process that
engages stakeholders throughout all aspects ++ Starting with the desired end state and
of the analysis, builds trust and consensus, and working backward to the present, or
promotes robust discussion about findings. ‘backcasting’, in order that going forward,
analysis is consistent with ambition.
Figure 2: The Pathway Process
STEP 1
STEP 4
Build the right
pathways team Set the narrative
STEP 7
IMPLEMENTATION
DE VELOPMENT
Analyse barriers and

PREPAR ATION
STEP 5
PATHWAY
PATHWAY
PATHWAY
STEP 2 identify solutions

Develop and
Plan for stakeholder
iterate scenarios
engagement STEP 8
Develop a pathway
STEP 6 implementation plan
STEP 3
Socialise long
Assess ‘readiness’ for term pathways
pathway development
While these steps are presented as an holistic Stakeholder engagement occurs throughout the
process, it should be noted that each step is process, rather than at a single step within the
stand alone. Additionally, many can be reordered process. And the recruitment of your pathways
or undertaken at the same time, depending team will be informed by the narrative and
on local context, degree of similar work done scenarios, which may require added expertise
previously or stakeholder interest. on top of what was initially envisioned.
For example, the narrative may be refined

iteratively, informed by stakeholder engagement
and scenario analysis.
D E S I G N I N G Y O U R PA T H W AY
While these steps are

presented as an holistic
process, it should be
noted that each step is
stand alone. Additionally,
many can be reordered or
undertaken at the same
time, depending on local
context, degree of similar
work done previously or
stakeholder interest.
PATHWAY PREPAR ATION STEP 01
STEP 01
Build the right

pathways team
Ideally, the pathway process should be driven

by strong national ownership. The pathways
team may be comprised of experts and
organisations from both inside and
outside government.
Ultimately, establishing the right team

is critical to the success of the pathway
process and for each country, the criteria
for selecting team members will be slightly
different. Based on best practice approaches
used in a number of long term strategy The selected members of your pathways team
processes, your pathways team needs to have should all be familiar with the social norms,
multidisciplinary experience, and understand engagement and learning preferences of
both the modelling and scenario building your national stakeholders, and be viewed
process as well as the principles of good as trusted and impartial experts. Pathways
stakeholder engagement. teams can be made up of any combination
of analytical and engagement experts from
government, academia, NGOs, consultancies,
and other international or local organisations
with relevant expertise. It matters less which
organisation experts come from, and more
that they bring the required expertise to
contribute to the production of a high quality
pathway that has been developed through a
robust, consensus building approach.
STEP 01 PATHWAY PREPAR ATION
KE Y SKILL S THAT YOUR PATHWAYS TE AM IN IDENTIF YING THE RIGHT MITIGATION

SHOULD INCLUDE ARE: MODELLING E XPERTISE TO INCLUDE IN
YOUR PATHWAYS TE AM, THE FOLLOWING
CONSIDER ATIONS MAY PROVE USEFUL:
++ Mitigation modelling expertise, including
the ability to synthesise sectoral analyses
++ What domestic or regional organisations or
into a whole of economy pathway optimised
groups have mitigation modelling expertise?
for key socio-economic outcomes.
Do they also have expertise in adaptation or
This expertise is often spread across resilience analysis or modelling, particularly
multiple organisations. in relation to long term planning?
++ Stakeholder engagement expertise, ++ Have domestic or regional teams used a deep
in particular the ability to engage decarbonisation framework or worked at the
and influence key decision makers. ‘whole of economy’ scale previously? Do they
This includes familiarity with cultural have the time and capacity to support the
sensitivities and expectations. development of a pathway?
++ Project management expertise, ++ What other analytical, modelling or planning

to oversee delivery of a complex, expertise exists in other priority areas of socio-
multi-stakeholder project. economic development either domestically or
in the region?
++ Communications expertise, to ensure
++ Are there skills gaps (e.g. in sectoral expertise
the project’s outputs engage and inspire
or knowledge around emissions reduction),
decision-makers and civil society around
and how can these be addressed?
a common goal.
++ Implementation expertise, to support deep
understanding of, and practical solutions
to, the policy, governance, financial and
capacity barriers to implementation.
ADDITIONAL RE SOURCE S
++ The Islands Playbook has a Project Skills

Register which can help to map the skills of
those in your pathways team.
++ UNDP’s Low-Emission and Climate-Resilient
Development Strategies: Multi-Stakeholder
Decision-Making Guide has a useful Terms
of Reference - see Annex 6.
STEP 02
Plan stakeholder
engagement
This step suggests tools and resources that

can help your pathways team to identify
key stakeholder groups that need to be
considered in the pathway process. It will
also help you establish processes on how and
when to engage them. This will form the
foundations for stakeholder engagement
throughout the pathway process, and
pathways teams should build stakeholder
engagement into each step of the process. MAINTAINING A T WO WAY PRO CE SS
The pathways development process engages

stakeholders in the analysis and promotes
sophisticated two-way communication of
progress and results. Pathway analysis needs
to start with careful scoping, to ensure the
study asks the right research and policy
questions from the outset, sets the right
objectives and boundaries, and uses the
right methods and analytical toolkits in
order to answer them. Successful pathways
should meet the criteria of clarity, relevance,
practicality and credibility at each stage of
study scoping, analysis, implementation,
as well as in the communication and
description of results.
Source: 2050 Pathways: A Handbook
Ideally, your stakeholder engagement planning The types of institutions to consider may
should identify the aspirations of stakeholder include those departments or individuals with
groups for the pathways process, and understand responsibility or alignment with climate policy
how these objectives align with national, objectives or socio-economic development
international, donor or legal requirements as well outcomes in:
as local communication preferences (see page 22,
The Talanoa Dialogue). ++ Central and line ministries
++ Sub-national governments
The result should be an overview of the
significance of each key stakeholder to the ++ Private sector organisations
outcomes of the pathway process, and an outline (business and investors)
of the approaches to, and level of, engagement ++ Civil society organisations
for each stakeholder. This would draw on methods
and approaches that are gender-sensitive and ++ Academic and research organisations
socio-culturally appropriate. ++ Development partners and donors
++ Coordinating bodies and related
It should also seek to identify terminology
working groups
and language that is understandable to all
participants, drawing on local analogies
where appropriate. And it will seek to integrate This step also aims to detail a transparent
consultation with existing processes where and participatory process for understanding
possible, remaining aware of planning fatigue the interests, power and influence of different
and workflow peaks in annual policy stakeholder groups, their stake in the pathways
planning processes. process, the extent to which they may be affected
by pathway outcomes and their expectations of
2.1 IDENTIF Y AND MAP STAKEHOLDER S the process. This is an important activity to:
This step establishes the criteria for identifying ++ Understand the breadth and scope of relevant
your stakeholders. These are the individuals or stakeholders, and determine the level of
groups who need to be consulted throughout communication required throughout the
your pathway process, as well as anyone who pathway process.
will be directly/indirectly or positively/negatively
++ Determine the influence of stakeholders over
affected by the pathway development process
the desired outcome.
or its subsequent implementation.
++ Determine the interests and concerns from
This can be done by reviewing previous and stakeholder groups to inform the choice
current climate change and sustainable of indicators that will be presented in the
development policies and reports, by asking dashboard for each scenario (explained in
experts and decision makers directly and more detail in step 4.1).
tracking announcements in local media. ++ Forecast areas where the strongest viewpoints
are likely to emerge, and understand locally
Once your stakeholders are identified, appropriate conflict resolution approaches.
a participatory process should identify
their legitimate representatives.
The following stakeholder analysis template can

support the collation and interpretation of this
information, and provide recommendations to
inform the stakeholder engagement strategy
(the output of the next step).
The template should also be revisited during the

final steps relating to implementation planning.
Table 1: Template for stakeholder analysis
STA K E H O L D E R K E Y I N F LU E N C E R I N F LU E N C E SIGNIFICANCE I N T E R E ST RELEVANT POLICIES

NAME OR POSITION
List any key How could this How important is What is important STATEMENTS
individuals within stakeholder their influence (low, to this stakeholder?
stakeholder influence the medium, high)? What policies,
organisation, their project’s intended strategies, or
role and brief outcome (positively position statements
description of their or negatively)? has this stakeholder
area of influence produced that are
relevant to the
pathway process?
ADDITIONAL RE S OURCE S
++ Island Playbook’s ‘Stakeholder Engagement

Register’ is useful to record stakeholders
and their role, interest and engagement
in the transition.
++ ODI’s ‘ROMA: A guide to policy engagement
and influence’ tool can be used to identify,
engage and build coalitions among all
parties who make or implement policy,
and the intermediaries between them.
It may also be useful to map stakeholders

Figure 3: Stakeholder mapping matrix
according to their level of interest and
impact on the pathways process.
Doing so, your pathways team should be
HIGH
able to determine the level of consultation
required to manage different stakeholder
What influence does the stakeholder have over

groups, and identify those needing to
be managed closely and kept highly C O N S U LT EMPOWER
informed. An illustration of a stakeholder
mapping matrix is provided in Figure 3.
The four categories of engagement
MEDIUM
the outcome of the pathway?
used in this approach are:
1. EMP OWER
Stakeholders with high interest in the
pathway and high influence over its INFORM I N VO LV E
successful outcome are your project
champions. The focus for engagement
LO W
should be on equipping them with the

information and resources needed to LO W MEDIUM HIGH
advocate on behalf of the pathway, What is the level of interest the stakeholder has
and to ensure that their perspectives in the pathway outcome?
are reflected in the pathway narrative
and outputs.
2. INVOLVE
Stakeholders with high interest in
the pathway can provide knowledge,
resources and capacity to support
the pathway process.
3. CONSULT
Stakeholders with high influence over
the outcome of the pathway process
++ The Island Playbook has also developed a
should be regularly consulted to ensure
similar Stakeholder Matrix included in the Island
their perspectives are reflected in the
Playbook’s Stakeholder Engagement Register.
pathway narrative and outputs, and
to build buy-in. ++ The Initiative for Climate Action Transparency
(ICAT) has tailored a Stakeholder Participation
4. INFORM
Spectrum (Table 3.1) as part of their
Stakeholders with low influence and
‘Stakeholder Participation Guidance’ for
interest in the project should be kept
assessing GHG, sustainable development
informed on its progress. This can be
and transformational impacts.
light touch, for example through
semi-regular email updates.
2. 2 DE VELOP A STAKEHOLDER
ENGAGEMENT PL AN
This step builds on the information you will Example activities used to engage different
have collected through stakeholder analysis and stakeholder groups are outlined below:
mapping. By identifying the policy influencing,
capacity strengthening and communications ++ Invite to take on a program strategic role
objectives for identified stakeholder groups, you (I N VO LV E )
can then decide a plan that will best achieve
++ Seek advice on areas within expertise
these objectives, considering the specific
( CO N SU LT )
interests, concerns, engagement barriers
and expectations of different stakeholders. ++ Seek opportunities to present or brief staff or
members on areas of key program learnings
When determining the objectives for stakeholder (EMPOWER)
engagement, your pathways team will need to
++ Invite to join communities of practice or
identify outcomes that are realistic, measurable
organisational working groups ( I N VO LV E )
and informed by stakeholder preferences.
Common examples include objectives related ++ Organise stakeholder roundtable events
to building awareness, influencing attitudes, based on mutual interests to disseminate
encouraging an action to support an issue key messages ( E M P O W E R )
or program, identifying change agents and ++ Author tailored outputs with high level key
advocates, overcoming opposing views, messages, e.g. policy briefs ( I N FO R M )
maintaining or facilitating dialogue and/
or monitoring progress towards a successful ++ Tailor business cases based on aligned
outcome (in this case pathway development). objectives to mobilise stakeholder action
(EMPOWER)
The strategies used to achieve these objectives
are often multifaceted and informed by the Another key component of this step will be
degree of influence each stakeholder group to identify the learning and communication
has over the pathway process. For instance, preferences and social customs that will best
your pathways team may consider including support inclusive stakeholder discussion and
highly influential stakeholders in the Expert promote local ownership.
Advisory Panel (see Step 2.3), or proactively
seeking opportunities to collaborate on new A stakeholder engagement plan can take many
knowledge creation for mutual benefit. For less forms, and pathways teams may already have
influential stakeholders, the pathway team preferred approaches to developing these plans.
may choose to share regular program updates If not, the table on the following page provides
or find opportunities to brief staff or members an illustration of a simple stakeholder
on selected program learnings, tailored to their engagement plan.
identified interests.
Table 2: Stakeholder engagement plan
STA K E H O L D E R 1 STA K E H O L D E R 2 STA K E H O L D E R 3 STA K E H O L D E R 4
O B J EC T I V E S F O R E N GAG E M E N T
(e.g. data sharing, policy change,
resourcing, awareness-raising,
capacity strengthening)
K E Y M E SS AG E S
(ie. How should you frame key
messages about the pathways process
to build buy-in from this stakeholder,
based on their interests?)
LEARNING AND COMMUNICATION

PREFERENCES and social customs
to be taken into consideration
in engagement
A P P ROAC H E S TO E N GAG E M E N T
(e.g. invite to Advisory Group, involve
in expert review process, provide
regular updates)
B A R R I E R S TO E N GAG E M E N T
(e.g. lack of interest, time constraints,
political affiliation)
++ ODI’s ‘ROMA: A guide to policy engagement

and influence’ outlines a step by step process to
build a stakeholder engagement strategy.
++ DFID’s ‘Tools for Development’
(Chapter 2. Stakeholder Analysis -
details a comprehensive approach to
stakeholder analysis).
The Talanoa Dialogue
Under Fiji’s UNFCCC Presidency of COP 23,

the launch of the Talanoa Dialogue as a
facilitative dialogue approach provided an
ideal platform for government and relevant
decision makers, business, civil society and
technical experts to share their visions,
priorities and challenges.
The Dialogue design also provided an enabling

space to build ownership, understanding
and transparency. Such a process can inform
the development of pathways by discussing
alternative futures, and helping to formulate
research and policy questions that will guide
the scenario planning.
STEP 02 PATHWAY PREPARSATION
ECTION TITLE
“The purpose of Talanoa is to

share stories, build empathy
and to make wise decisions for
the collective good. The process
of Talanoa involves the sharing
of ideas, skills and experience
through storytelling.
During the process, participants build trust and
advance knowledge through empathy and understanding.
Blaming others and making critical observations are
inconsistent with building mutual trust and respect,
and therefore inconsistent with the Talanoa concept.
Talanoa fosters stability and inclusiveness in dialogue,
by creating a safe space that embraces mutual respect
for a platform for decision making for a greater good.”
Source: UNFCCC 2018 Talanoa Dialogue Platform
2. 3 E STABLISH A MULTI-STAKEHOLDER
ADVIS ORY PANEL
This step is crucial to building trust and It is important to ensure the Advisory Panel
credibility in your pathway planning process. represents the ‘right mix’ of decision makers and
Through stakeholder engagement planning technical experts - from domestic government
(Step 2.2), your pathways team will have and non-government organisations, and
identified locally credible decision makers, draws on regional expertise as required. It is
leaders and experts to take part in an expert also essential to confirm in advance that they
Advisory Panel or reference committee to can commit adequate time to participating in
support the pathway process. regular consultation over an extended period
(as a pathway process can take between six
Establishing a diverse group of stakeholders months and two years to complete, depending
is crucial to ensuring equitable and true on the capacity of the pathways team, the level
representation. This is because each individual of granularity of the analysis, and the degree of
will bring with them “pre-existing cultural stakeholder consultation).
and social beliefs about the roles, functions,
responsibilities and social standing of different In countries where relevant working groups
groups within societies”. It’s a step which is are already in operation, it may be feasible to
foundational to many processes, including the draw on their expertise and invite some or all
Framework for Resilient Development in the members of these groups to support the pathway
Pacific (FRDP). development process. Technical and modelling
experts often consult across multiple countries,
Advisory Panel members will need to be so it is recommended to get advice from the
thoroughly consulted throughout the regional technical expert agencies, many of
development of narratives and scenarios. which are listed on the next page.
It is expected they will evaluate findings and
assumptions against their practical, real world
knowledge and observations, build community
credibility and act as champions for your
pathways development, through public,
private and civil society sectors.
MANAGING STAKEHOLDER RISK
Once the pathway team has determined the ++ Power imbalances amongst participants
makeup of its expert Advisory Panel, a risk and
++ Power struggles amongst participants
issues analysis should be completed for the
Group in order to guide management of any ++ Possible current or future conflicts of interest
risks identified. Typical risks and issues in a ++ Inability to obtain agreement/consensus
group environment can include:
++ Political imperatives, and
++ Limited capacity of participants ++ Unwillingness to contribute solutions
++ Unrealistic or mismatched expectations
++ Stakeholder tensions
Table 3: Regional and international technical expertise on climate action
O RGA N I S AT I O N S A N D T EC H N I C A L P ROV I D E R S NET WORKS
++ The Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment ++ Pacific Resilience Partnership

Programme (SPREP)
++ Regional Pacific NDC Dialogue
++ Pacific Community (SPC)
++ Regional Pacific NDC Hub
++ Pacific Island Development Forum (PIDF)
++ The Sustainable Energy Industry Association
++ Pacific Island Forum Secretariat (PIFS) of the Pacific Islands
++ Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) ++ The Low-Carbon Working Group under the
Framework for Resilient Development
++ United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
in the Pacific (FRDP)
++ United Nations Economic and Social Commission
++ Climate Action Network (PICAN)
for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP)
++ Pacific Climate Change Portal
++ International Union for Conservation of
Nature-Oceania (IUCN) ++ Pacific Islands Association of Non-Government
Organisations (PIANGO)
++ ClimateWorks Australia
++ Regional Pacific NDC Dialogue
++ Climate Analytics
++ Regional Pacific NDC Hub
++ World Resources Institute
++ Pacific Resilience Partnership
++ Global Green Growth Institute
++ Pacific SDG Task Force
++ University of the South Pacific (USP)
++ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)
++ National statistics offices or bureaus
D ONORS P R I VAT E S EC TO R
++ Asian Development Bank (ADB) ++ Pacific Islands Private Sector Organisation (PIPSO)
++ World Bank ++ Pacific Power Association (PPA)
++ Green Climate Fund (GCF) ++ Pacific Cooperation Foundation
++ Australia (DFAT) ++ Pacific Islands Trade and Invest
++ New Zealand (MFAT) ++ Business councils e.g. NZ Tonga Business Council
and Australia-Pacific Business Council
++ European Commission
++ Banking e.g. Bank South Pacific, Westpac and ANZ
++ Japan (JICA)
++ Domestic and inter-island transport services
++ Korea (KOICA)
++ Agriculture & Fisheries e.g. Forum Fisheries Agency
++ Germany (GIZ)
++ French Development Agency (AFD)
++ US (USAID)
Once members are appointed to the Advisory ++ Define steps, methods, work plan
Panel, you can use the following sub-steps to and timetable.
determine the group’s terms of reference and
++ Present multi-stakeholder process to key
establish the panel:
stakeholders, partners and actors in country.
++ Define the objectives and scope of
++ If the panel is large, consider establishing
the Advisory Panel.
sector working groups e.g. energy,
++ Define operational and organisational transport and waste.
structure, roles and responsibilities,
and budget.
C A SE STUDY
FIJI’S LONG TERM LOW EMISSIONS

DE VELOPMENT STR ATEGY B ROA D E R
STA K E H O L D E R S
In 2018 following on from the development

and launch of their NDC Roadmap, the Fijian T EC H N I C A L
Government decided to undertake a Long Term
Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)
planning process with technical assistance ST E E R I N G
from the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI). COMMIT TEE
It will be one of the first LT-LEDS for a Pacific
country and only the fourth for a developing
country. The overall aim of developing Fiji’s
LT-LEDS is to enhance the Fijian Government’s
ability to plan for decarbonisation of its economy
by providing a framework and a pathway for a
progressive revision and enhancement of targets
under its NDC to reduce CO2 emissions to 2030
and beyond.
As part of this, the Ministry of Economy Climate

Change Division (CCD) established a governance
mechanism to support the process:
+ + ST E E R I N G CO M M I T T E E : Which includes ++ UNDP’s LECRDS 1.0 ‘Multi-stakeholder

14 government ministries and agencies. Decision-Making Guide’ provides guidance
The Steering Committee met on 28th March on the benefits of a multi-stakeholder
2018 to agree that a National Stakeholder engagement process.
workshop should be one of the first steps
++ OECD’s ‘LEDS Technical, Institutional and
in the LT-LEDS process.
Policy Lessons’ report provides a schematic
+ + T EC H N I C A L : For each sector one to two for setting up the institutional arrangements.
consultants have been engaged to lead in
their area of expertise. Their role is to help
set the vision for their sector, undertake
the modelling and coordinate engagement
with broader stakeholders. Sectors were:
Electricity, Land Transport, Maritime
Transport, Agriculture, Forestry, Waste, Blue
Carbon & Wetlands and Tourism & Industry.
+ + B ROA D E R STA K E H O L D E R S : This includes
sector-specific individuals from private
sectors, civil society, sub-national government,
development partners and academia.
At the time of publication, Fiji was still in the
process of developing its LT-LEDS. Any examples
used in this guide reflect this.
It is important to ensure
the Advisory Group
represents the ‘right mix’
of decision makers and
technical experts - from
domestic government
and non-government
organisations, and draws
on regional expertise
as required.
STEP 03
Assess readiness for

pathway development
3.1 CRE ATE A RE ADINE SS A SSE SSMENT ++ Determine the quality of existing data
FR AME WORK sources and modelling capability, by
reviewing data sources, identifying gaps and
In order to design a pathway, your team needs evaluating models used previously to support
to consider local operational and policy context national or sectoral based strategic planning.
and capacity. To do this, a number of key areas
need to be explored (outlined in Table 4 below). In many Pacific Island countries, these types
This will help you assess your country’s readiness of assessments already exist and are publicly
to design and implement a pathway and make available. The Pacific Climate Change Finance
informed decisions about: Assessment Framework (PCCAF) provides an
example of a similar assessment you may wish
++ How to engage with and strengthen the
to use, to adequately inform this step and save
capacity of national institutions (referring to
significant time and resourcing.
the practices, governance structures, donors
and social norms that support a country’s
PCCAFs have now been undertaken in seven
progress towards NDC implementation and
Pacific Island countries - Fiji, Vanuatu, Kiribati,
its climate change goals). Your pathway
Tonga, the Republic of Marshall Islands, Solomon
team should be able to determine the
Islands and Tuvalu - with others in the pipeline.
compatibility of institutions with policy
All have been nationally endorsed and are publicly
objectives and identify gaps in technical,
available to guide NDCs, unlock climate finance
financial and human capacity.
and support climate change adaptation planning.
++ Ensure that your pathway considers and
builds on existing national and regional Recognising that many Pacific leaders feel
policy and plans developed to guide a overburdened with reporting efforts, recent
country’s energy security, sector roadmaps, attempts have been made by the Pacific
climate change adaptation and resilience, Sustainable Development Taskforce to
NDC implementation and sustainable harmonise policy and planning instruments,
development objectives. and identify common objectives and data that
can be used for a number of purposes including
pathway development.
The following table can support your pathways Using it, your pathway team can also identify
team to map the institutional and policy context the strengths and gaps of current institutions
in which they will be developing their pathways. responsible for climate policy, in order to inform
It can also be used to guide how you choose to the barriers assessment (Step 7) and the
approach modelling, based on the plans, data development of an implementation plan (Step 8).
and tools already in use.
Table 4: Guiding matrix for assessing national ‘readiness’ to engage with pathway planning
CRITERIA G U I D I N G Q U E ST I O N S
++ What sectoral and national plans exist to guide current climate mitigation,
adaptation and resilience action (e.g. NDCs, energy master plans, transport
roadmaps, land use plans, etc.)?
++ What national plans or analysis have been developed to inform national strategic
planning for socio-economic development and SDG planning (e.g. national development
plans, SDG roadmaps, sector plans, etc.)?
++ What coverage does each have (national, subnational), and over what time period?
++ What studies or modelling was done to inform these? What is their source data?
Can this modelling or data be accessed for the pathway?
++ Who developed each plan? Should they be on the Expert Review Committee or
included in a sense check or peer review process?
++ For each plan, are there lessons or outputs from the consultation process that can
be used to inform stakeholder engagement for the pathway?
++ What action plans have been developed to guide implementation of these policies?
Are they working? Are there gaps?
POLICIES ++ When are the optimal timing windows for informing national or sector based
AND PL ANS strategic planning or policy review?
++ Are roles and responsibilities clearly delineated between government departments,

and between government and non-government institutions?
++ Have formal cross-ministry mechanisms been established in key policy areas?
++ Does effective informal cooperation occur in these policy areas between government
I N ST I T U T I O N S and non-government institutions?
++ Are institutional structures compatible with the objectives of existing policies and plans?
++ Are there gaps and bottlenecks in existing institutional structures?
++ Does each have sufficient technical, financial and human capacity to undertake
their responsibilities?
CAPACITY
AND HUMAN
++ What support is provided to strengthen institutional capacities?
RESOURCES ++ Where are there key gaps?
3. 2 MAP AND RE VIE W PRE VIOUSLY MODELLING APPROACHE S TO DE VELOP

USED MODEL S AND ANALY TIC AL LONG TERM PATHWAYS
APPROACHE S
DDPP country teams used a wide variety of
A review of analytical approaches and modelling approaches to develop their 2050
modelling tools previously used in your pathways. This partly reflects previous work
country or region should be undertaken to in each country, and the different methods
determine whether these could be adapted required to perform the analyses, as required
for your pathways process. To decide whether for different pathways narratives.
existing modelling tools can or should be
included in your pathway development, ask: Teams used (or developed their own) energy
system models, macroeconomic models,
++ Does the modelling tool allow for analysis integrated assessment models, and land use
of the potential for reducing emissions
models to investigate various national
across one or more of the four pillars?
priorities in their pathways.
If not, can it be adapted to do this?
++ Does the modelling tool allow for Source: 2050 Pathways: A Handbook
comparison of other socio-economic or
sustainable development priorities?
++ Can the modelling tool provide detail on
the technology actions needed, and the
feasibility of those actions in light of
other priorities?
++ ‘Improving deep decarbonization modelling

capacity for developed and developing country
contexts’ (Pye & Bataille, 2016) outlines a
conceptual decision framework to support
developing countries to undertake deep
decarbonisation analysis.
++ ‘Checklist on Establishing Post-2020 Emission
Pathways’ (World Bank, 2015) presents a
“checklist” designed to support countries in
the development and presentation of medium
and long term low emissions pathways.
A range of modelling tools can be used to support and may also require the creation of a
your pathways development, or complement ‘whole of economy’ model to synthesise
existing modelling. A high level overview of different sectoral analyses and understand the
model types is outlined below, along with the key broader socio-economic impacts of different
strengths and weaknesses of each approach. pathways scenarios. However, for PICs with
limited existing sectoral modelling, a simple
Note that pathways are not often developed GHG model such as LEAP or DDP may be
using only one model. Most country approaches sufficient to develop a pathway that can
build on existing modelling at a sectoral level, inform climate policy and ambition.
A P P ROAC H EX AMPLES ST R E N G T H S W E A K N E SS E S
++ Transparent calculations
++ Easy to use and understand ++ Can’t calculate secondary economic
++ Flexible impacts of change
E XC E L B A S E D
DDPP ++ Can be tailored to country needs ++ Dependent on static assumptions
C A LC U L ATO R S
++ Good option where energy or GHG ++ Model doesn’t capture whole of
mitigation modelling has not previously economy transformation
been undertaken, or is very limited
++ Extensively used, including in PICs

++ Designed for integrated energy ++ Mostly supports energy system
planning and GHG mitigation analysis modelling (although new land use
AC C O U N T I N G LEAP feature recently added to LEAP)
++ Low initial data required
FR AMEWORKS CLEER
++ Easy to use ++ Unable to deal with complexity
++ Can support different modelling ++ Cannot identify development benefits

approaches (top down, bottom up)
++ Assumes perfect market

competition, therefore not well
++ Works well with backcasting
suited to simulating how systems
modelling approaches
OPTIMISATION behave in the real world
TIMES ++ Useful for identifying the optimal
MODELS ++ Not well suited to examining policy
combination of mitigation actions
options that go beyond technology
and policy interventions
choice (e.g. behaviour change)
++ Relatively complex and data intensive
++ Requires significant data inputs

++ Grounded in economic theory, has ++ Time intensive
potential to capture wide set of
++ Relies on traditional approach
economic impacts
to economics which may not be
C O M P U TA B L E ++ Popular methodology for
GTA P _ E applicable in developing
GENER AL
GEM-E3 mitigation purposes country contexts
EQ U I L I B R I U M
ORANI-G ++ Useful where time series data is
MODEL S (CGE) ++ Assumes current economic
scarce and can be replaced by structure is static over time
strongly tested assumptions
++ Doesn’t assess of the
++ Can be both static and dynamic positive spillovers from ‘deep
carbon reduction’
3. 3 A SSE SS DATA QUALIT Y AND GAP S
Gather key information or data you need to It is essential that the data you use is credible,
develop your pathway. This includes: comprehensive, recent and robust. When collating
and assessing data sources, it can therefore be
++ Historical data for your country (emissions, useful to ask these questions:
energy supply and demand by sector, and
economic indicators such as population ++ Based on the national and sectoral plans,
growth trends, GDP, etc.) analysis and policies identified previously,
++ Future projections (energy supply and demand are robust data series available for each sector
by sector under BAU, emissions and economic and/or at a whole of economy level?
projections which are modelled based on ++ Has there been a recent GHG inventory?
reasonable assumptions of population growth, How credible/recent/transparent is the data?
productivity, commodity prices, etc.)
++ How willing are stakeholders (government,
++ Mitigation potential - modelling of the private, civil society) to share their data?
mitigation solutions that underpin the pathway,
++ What are key data gaps and how will they
which requires reasonable assumptions on the
be addressed?
costs and potential limitations of uptake across
the economy (including learning rates, adoption ++ What are the key issues for accessing
curves, etc.) existing data?
++ What are the main uncertainties identified
in previous data analysis? What are the
implications for this analysis and how can
these be overcome?
KE Y CONSIDER ATIONS FOR SOURCING

AND VALIDATING DATA
Data on emission projections, mitigation strategy even where good data doesn’t exist
potential and costs are not always readily today, by ‘backcasting’ from a clear vision of
available, and can be a particular challenge the climate and socio-economic goals the
for developing countries. Greenhouse Gas country aims to achieve by 2050. This in turn
Inventories undertaken as part of the UNFCCC can inform where to focus on improving data
National Communications are useful sources quality going forward, in order to support
but should be tested against other, high quality achievement of these goals.
data sources. It should be noted, however, that
much can be done in developing a long term
FURTHER SUGGE STIONS:
++ It may require collaboration between S OURCE S FOR DATA IN THE PACIFIC

national and international data specialists.
Academic institutions should be a key In addition to data that underpins the plans,
source of technical input when undertaking policies and models previously reviewed, key
a pathways process and, where needed, regional or country specific data sources can
should be mentored throughout the be found via these links:
approach to build institutional capacity.
++ Call on the pathways Advisory Group and ++ Individual country GHG inventories via
sector technical experts to sense check and National Communications submissions
validate the quality of the data, as well to the UNFCCC
as expertise in other country teams who ++ Pacific Regional Data Repository
have already undertaken their pathways.
Domestic working groups, particularly in ++ PRISM - Pacific statistics
organisations with Accredited Entity status ++ National Minimum Development Indicators
for access to multilateral climate finance,
++ World Bank’s Data for PSIDS
can also be useful resources for this.
++ IRENA’s ‘Pacific Lighthouses: Renewable
++ Data on mitigation potential and costs can
Energy Roadmaps for Islands’ and ‘Renewable
be particularly subject to political influence.
Energy Country Profiles for the Pacific’
Thus, gaining consensus among government
ministries on a baseline projection or cost ++ Pacific Climate Change Science
information can be a challenge. Working
++ Pacific Climate Change Portal
with ministries to set the narrative, design a
‘dashboard’ and plan scenarios (see Step 4
below) can help to accommodate this.
++ Estimations of data such as emissions
projections, mitigation potential and costs,
are predicting future trends and so are
inherently uncertain. When possible use
a range of projections across a variety of
sources to help inform the pathways process.
++ Poor data can hinder a government’s ability
to make informed decisions on the priorities
for climate change mitigation, however there
may be lessons that can be shared and learnt
between countries. Consider reaching out
to other Pacific Island countries that have
undertaken similar processes to see how they
overcame these challenges.
PATHWAY DE VELOPMENT STEP 04
STEP 04
Set the narrative
‘Narrative’ in this context, is the story that

describes your transition to a mid-century
low carbon future that meets your socio-
economic goals. It can also be called your
‘vision’. The narrative for each Pacific Island
country will be unique, building on specific
national circumstances and potential future
opportunities in infrastructure, natural
resources, technology availability, financial
capacity and climate vulnerability, as well as
priorities in socio-economic development.
The narrative is best developed through

a facilitated consensus building, multi-
stakeholder process. By guiding the
construction of a shared narrative to
describe a low carbon, sustainable future,
a common desired end point is envisioned, Typically, a pathway narrative is developed by
which will directly inform the research bringing together key stakeholders to create
question formulation and scenario a shared perspective of how their country
development undertaken by your should achieve low emissions development.
pathways team in later steps. The narrative will guide the creation of a
‘dashboard’ (see Step 4.1) and formulation
of the questions that will guide scenario
development (see Step 5).
STEP 04 PATHWAY DE VELOPMENT
C A SE STUDY
In the Pacific, many countries have already SE T TING THE VISION FOR FIJI’S LOW
demonstrated high climate ambition and net EMISSIONS DE VELOPMENT STR ATEGY
zero emissions leadership. This is encouraging
many other countries to account for their ‘fair During the First National Stakeholder Workshop,
share’ of the finite global carbon budget and their participants broke into sector-based groups to
contribution towards the global goal of remaining discuss their narratives, or vision, during a two hour
‘well below’ 2 degrees and aiming for 1.5 degrees. session. The following is a summary of this exercise:
Consensus around this level of ambition, and
agreement on other socio-economic goals that 1. BRAINSTORM DEEP DECARBONISATION:
need to be achieved in parallel, are therefore the Participants shared their individual
cornerstones of a pathways narrative. These two perceptions of deep decarbonisation in the
elements are described below: context of sustainable development.
1. NATIONAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC PRIORITIES: 2. VISION: Participants discussed and drafted

For Pacific Islands this could specifically link a vision for their sector.
to key Sustainable Development Goals, or 3. BREAKING DOWN THE VISION: Participants
include clear objectives within broader socio- then identified four or more achievable 2050
economic goals such as resilience and climate emission reduction targets for their sector.
adaptation, energy security, economic growth
4. BARRIER/SOLUTIONS BRAINSTORM: Groups
and poverty reduction.
mapped the biggest barriers to achieving the
2. A CLE AR MITIGATION G OAL: targets and objectives they had identified.
Ideally, net zero emissions or near zero
emissions. The experience of others working with
a high ambition goal shows that it transforms
thinking and inspires the identification of new
opportunities, technologies and industries that
can catalyse greater emissions reductions, and
may also be new drivers of economic growth.
A narrative is usually described at a whole of
economy level, creating a vision for national
progress over time. However, as the case study
on setting the vision for Fiji’s Low Emissions
Development Strategy shows, visions can also Participants of the Electricity group discuss and set their
be described at a sectoral level. Vision at Fiji’s First National Stakeholder Workshop.
Once your pathway narrative has been developed,
++ The Island Playbook’s ‘Phase 1: Setting the Vision’
it’s important to revisit the modelling tools
++ Social Transformation Project’s ‘Visioning Toolkit’ and team capabilities (Step 3.2 and Step 1
++ DFID’s ‘Tools for Development’ respectively) to ensure that these are best suited
(Chapter 4. Visioning) to the task set out in the narrative. The narrative
++ Participatory Methods (2007), ‘Visualisation will also help formulate the key research questions
in Participatory Programmes: how to facilitate that the modelling will need to address.
and visualise participatory group processes’
4.1 DE VELOP A DA SHB OARD
The success of the pathways process is dependent Dashboards assist with technical interactions
on ensuring consistent and structured modelling among modelling teams, and provide comparable
assumptions and outputs across the modelling outputs under a range of scenarios. This enables
team, for example, when several sectoral exercises outputs from the different models used to be
take place in parallel. This ensures key assumptions easily compared and, based on new information
and outputs are standardised where the modelling and learnings from this comparison, to be iterated.
effort is split across multiple teams. A useful tool to This iterative process is key to the achievement of
achieve these goals is a ‘dashboard’. ambitious 2050 targets, by allowing for a shared
understanding of which scenarios deliver the best
Dashboards also act as a key tool for stakeholder outcomes across both climate and socio-economic
engagement and communication. Driven by indicators, and where further effort is needed to
standardised data tables that produce simple ensure all key outcomes are achieved.
graphs, they can easily communicate change
over time in key ‘indicators’ of progress - They can also reflect the different national social
emissions and socio-economic outcomes - and economic priorities of different national
under different scenarios. pathways, as seen in the South Africa case study
(see next page). For the DDPP exercise, South
Commonly used dashboard indicators include: Africa modelled impact on poverty alleviation and
jobs growth, India’s national pathway modelled
++ Economy-wide indicators (population, GDP,
energy access and air pollution, whereas Russia
job creation)
modelled energy diversification and economic
++ Energy demand by sector (which can highlight resilience. Finally, if desired, dashboards can
opportunity for efficiency improvements in enable comparison of results between countries.
key sectors) This may be particularly important to Pacific Island
++ Energy supply by fuel type (which can show countries, where achieving some goals - such as
potential improvements in energy security) energy security - may be better facilitated through
a regional approach.
++ Changes in land use and their associated
emissions over time (which can support
identification of non-energy emissions
growth, and indicate where the risk of
‘lock-out’ may exist) DA SHB OARDS A S COMMUNIC ATION TO OL S
FOR P OLICY MAKER S
Although dashboards are not meant to be the only
communication tool used in pathways analysis, Dashboards are a key communication tool for
they can provide invaluable communications a non-technical audience. Because they can
support across areas ranging from funder
produce simple graphs that show changes in
reporting to stakeholder engagement.
key metrics along a timeline to mid-century,
The common understanding derived from creating stakeholders can easily understand and
and using dashboards can also support many compare the impact and outcomes of
of the benefits of the pathways process, such different scenarios.
as mutual support on policy and sharing best
practices. They can also be useful to the process
to set common assumptions on key indicators
(e.g. GDP, population growth) and to report on
dimensions that will matter to key stakeholders
(e.g. How is poverty reduced? Will mobility be
improved? Will it deliver jobs growth?).
C A SE STUDY
REDUCING EMISSIONS, UNEMPLOYMENT

Figure 4: Labour force participation rate over time and
AND P OVERT Y IN SOUTH AFRIC A
unemployment rate over time as calculated from the
quantity of labour demanded in the e-SAGE CGE model
The two graphs at right provide examples of
dashboard outputs from the deep decarbonisation 80%
pathway for South Africa. Given South Africa’s high 70 %

level of unemployment and high rate of poverty,
60%
the team wanted to understand how ambitious
emissions reductions could reduce unemployment 50 %
and poverty. As the graphs illustrate, both 40%
scenarios achieved similar levels of emissions
30%
reductions, and similar levels of poverty reduction,
however the scenario in the top (line) graph, which 20 %
focused on low skilled job creation, created a better
10%
outcome in reducing unemployment. The scenario
in the second (bar) graph focused on stimulating 0%
the creation of a highly skilled workforce, which
2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
required improving education outcomes in
early childhood years to achieve a highly skilled Labour force U M E P LOY M E N T
particpation
workforce in the long term. Economic structure scenarios
High skills scenarios
This pathway provided several key insights Figure 5: The percentage of the population in the low,
for South Africa’s policy makers. First, there middle and high income groups as defined by SATIM
isn’t a choice to be made between reducing
1 00 %
unemployment and poverty OR reducing carbon
emissions. The South Africa pathway clearly 80%
demonstrates that the two can be achieved in 60%

parallel, and in fact that reducing emissions can
40%
help create new jobs. Second, it suggests a policy
trade-off may be required between rapid low 20 %
skilled job creation, or the creation of a highly 0%
skilled workforce more likely to drive sustained All
Scenarios
Economic High
Skills
Economic High
Skills
Structure Structure
economic growth over the long term. 201 0 203 0 2050
High Income Middle Income Low Income
(>R76 800) (R19 200 to R76 800) (<R19 200)
Source: Pathways to Deep Decarbonisation in South Africa
SENSE CHECKING WITH STAKEHOLDER S
Proposed indicators should be tested with the This will provide an opportunity for you to sense
Advisory Panel and also with key stakeholders check and revise the research questions that
such as policy makers to ensure they address will guide analysis before it begins, while also
the research questions identified in Step 4: Set ensuring the pathway will be informative and
the narrative. useful to key decision makers.
4. 2 DE TERMINE AN APPROACH TO
PL ANNING S CENARIOS
The scenario planning process establishes the As this is one of the most technically
guidance needed for modelling teams and challenging steps in the pathways process, care
stakeholders to effectively participate and work should be taken to ensure expert support and
together throughout the modelling process. input. Depending on the context, a number of
During the planning process, your pathways pathway scenarios may be developed, however
teams need to agree on: at minimum, any pathway design needs to
include a mitigation/high ambition scenario.
++ Modelling structure
++ Process for harmonisation across the Where countries are looking to address key socio-
modelling (ensuring interactions are economic goals alongside emissions reduction,
captured between sectors) this can also inform scenario development.
For example, in the case study of the South African
++ Decision making criteria to guide the
DDPP outlined on page 39, the team developed
logging of assumptions (and testing
two scenarios that would each deliver jobs growth
with stakeholders)
and poverty alleviation - and they produced
++ Review process comparable emissions reductions. Scenarios are
therefore designed to allow comparison of different
In general, the approach to developing the ways in which these goals can be achieved, which
scenarios should be consistent with the narrative in turn can inform decision making, policy design,
set out in Step 4 above. For example, if the capacity building, development funding and
narrative defines a net zero emissions target by infrastructure investment.
2050, the decision making criteria and subsequent
assumptions underpinning the model will need to Where countries want to understand the impact
ensure that adequate ambition is built into the on key socio-economic outcomes that different
pathway. Similarly, if there are multiple economic scenarios will have over time compared to
and societal goals that the pathway seeks to business-as-usual, or to measure the costs
achieve, an appropriate process for evaluating associated with achieving each scenario,
trade-offs will need to be agreed in advance. developing a baseline scenario is also useful.
++ ODI has guidance on Scenario Testing

with stakeholders.
++ The World Bank’s ‘Checklist on Establishing
Post-2020 Emission Pathways’ outlines an
approach to building pathways including
data gathering, establishing baseline and
alternative economic and emissions pathways,
modelling approaches, and presenting
pathway results.
C A SE STUDY
FIJI’S LT-LEDS AND THEIR APPROACH TO During this workshop held in May 2018,
CROSS-SECTOR AL ISSUE S participants were asked to identify how their
sectors interacted with these cross-cutting
During the development of this Guide, Fiji issues, resulting in the following points:
was in the early stages of their LT-LEDS
process. During the first national stakeholder ++ Health and Maritime: Health benefits from
workshop, the Fijian government and their changing to low carbon/sulphur shipping-
technical partner GGGI acknowledged the cold ironing
interaction with other cross-sectoral issues. ++ Green jobs and Land Transport: Job loss from
Their approach specifically considered the driverless electric vehicles (taxis) and buses
interaction of mitigation actions with social in the future
development, environmental conservation ++ Gender and equity and Electricity: Increasing
and climate resilience including: safety through increased electrification e.g.
more street lighting
++ Green jobs/employment
++ Gender and equity and Land Transport:
++ Gender and equity
Concerns around a congestion charge and
++ Education and awareness raising social justice e.g. those that need to drive
into the city are often from lower socio-
++ Access to services (energy, water, transport)
economic backgrounds
++ Green city development
As the LT-LEDS continue to be developed, these
++ Biodiversity conservation interactions will need to be accommodated
++ Vulnerability, adaptation and resilience by the Fiji Team.
The ‘Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in China’

project sought to not only identify low carbon
pathways to manage long term climate risk, but
also to explore opportunities to assist China to
deliver its key social economic objectives of more
inclusive growth towards higher income stage,
as well as improved air quality, public health
and local environment. Scenarios also explored
energy systems and infrastructure investment
with a view to managing rapid urbanisation
and industrialisation. Similarly to Pacific Island
countries, China is heavily reliant on imported
energy, with up to 70 percent of its oil to be
imported by 2020 and around 50 percent of its
gas. The DDPP scenario demonstrated that a
transformation to a low carbon pathway
aligned with social and economic development
was feasible.
During scenario development it’s important for a ‘top down’ or ‘bottom up’ or combination
your pathways team to consider how it will build approach - will best meet your needs.
its ‘whole of economy’ scenario, and whether
TOP D OWN OR B OT TOM UP? specialised teams that have deep knowledge
of the sector of interest.
Developing a pathway is not a fixed process
However, these models are also more
and your team should customise its approach
complex to use. This makes them less suited
based on your own context, limitations and
to a pathways process where ‘bottom up’
targets. ‘Top Down’ and ‘Bottom Up’ modelling
modelling doesn’t already exist, or where
approaches each have their advantages and
modelling capability is limited. A key challenge
disadvantages but in simple terms, a top down
also lies in determining how to consider the
approach starts with the economy as a whole
interactions between models in a whole of
and imposes changes on the economy which
economy pathway. For example, a country
are then broken down into sectors. A bottom
may have separate energy sector, industry and
up approach starts with the sectors, modelling
transport models. As efficiency improves in
each individually, and then aggregating them
industry, this will reduce energy demand. But a
into a whole.
shift to electric vehicles will increase electricity
In the context of decarbonisation planning, demand in the transport sector and these
an example of a top down approach would interactions in turn, can have implications for
be to determine an overall policy objective or energy infrastructure needs. This requires an
emissions reduction target (e.g. net zero by iterative approach to ensure such interactions
2050) and then use backcasting to identify the are fully accounted for.
overall system change required across various
Where country teams want to understand the
sectors. This often relies on macro-economic
‘potential’ impact of a carbon price (either a
modelling and the development of robust GHG
domestic carbon price, or the potential value
emissions scenarios, and is considered more
of domestic carbon stores in a global carbon
simple (less detailed) and faster to use, so it
market), scenarios can include a ‘shadow
allows modellers to run a larger number of
carbon cost’. A bottom up approach tends to
scenarios. It can also more easily share and
be better suited for this purpose, as it allows
reallocate the effort to decarbonise across
the analysis to consider and account for the
different sectors, and indicate the co-benefit
constraints of each sector and its ability to
and cost sharing opportunities of investment
respond to a carbon price. It is more difficult
and policy choices made at a national level.
to accurately calibrate the price of carbon
On the downside, the model must deal with a
and its effect on different sectors in a top
large number of uncertainties that may not be
down approach.
transparent, which means the results will be
indicative only. Experience demonstrates that a combination
of ‘top down’ and ‘bottom up’ approaches
In contrast, a bottom up approach would
can be complementary, provided common
identify emissions reduction options at a more
assumptions are agreed by modelling teams
granular level (typically by sector, but could
and are used to guide the scenarios built at
also be a technology, asset or industry level),
a sector scale. This then ensures that the
before aggregating the sector outputs into a
scenarios created at a sector scale produce
whole of economy model. This approach can
comparable outputs that can be aggregated,
draw on more detailed models that are more
which in turn can indicate the level of effort
representative of the real world parameters
needed, and costs and benefits involved in
and enable policy makers to work directly with
each ‘whole of economy’ pathway scenario.
During scenario development

it’s important for your
pathways team to consider
how it will build its ‘whole
of economy’ scenario, and
whether a ‘top down’ or
‘bottom up’ or combination
approach will best meet
your needs.
STEP 05
Develop and
iterate scenarios
In this guide, the baseline (or reference)

scenario is defined as ‘the state against
which change is measured’. Often called a
Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, it estimates
But where technology change can deliver
emissions growth, and changes in other key
significant medium and long term benefits
socio-economic measures such as GDP or
such as financial savings, providing a BAU
poverty rates which are expected to occur
scenario as a point of comparison can provide
over the given time frame, based on the
a compelling evidence base for change.
continuation of current policies and programs.
The quality of the data to build a BAU
While a BAU scenario is not a prerequisite
scenario may have already been assessed
to developing a pathway, it can be useful to
under Step 3.3, and many Pacific countries
understand the costs, benefits and trade-
already have developed BAU scenarios as
offs of a high ambition mitigation scenario
part of their national communications to
compared to current trends, particularly in
the UNFCCC. These existing scenarios should
contexts where there may be some resistance
be assessed to check whether any updates
to ambitious action. For example, where the
are required to reflect recent changes to
private sector controls emissions reductions
economic development and national and
opportunities, the high upfront costs of
sectoral policy decisions, and to consider any
technology change or unfamiliarity with
other adjustments needed in extrapolating
new technology may be significant barriers.
the BAU scenario to mid-century. If there are
questions about the quality of the data from
the UNFCCC submission or if governments
lack their own data in key policy areas or
sectors, ‘proxy’ data from other sources such
as other countries with similar conditions can
be used in an initial phase.
5.1 IDENTIF Y MITIGATION OP TIONS ++ An understanding of how policy levers can

amplify mitigation potential in multiple
This step builds on the scenarios developed under sectors, enhance co-benefits and avoid
Step 4, and identifies options for transforming the tradeoffs. For example, a policy focused on
development trajectory to one that achieves very enhancing a country’s energy security may
low or net zero emissions. Developing a mitigation deliver emissions reductions in electricity
scenario requires identifying alternative possible supply, manufacturing and transport,
projections for long term economic, policy, and while also providing energy productivity
market conditions by adjusting assumptions, improvements, opportunities for new
constraints and inputs to the model. businesses, and jobs growth. Well considered
policy can also minimise the impact on
In the Fiji case study, a net-zero scenario was existing industries and businesses, and
unanimously agreed at a national level, with avoid negative environmental outcomes.
technical experts then employed to consider
the possible mitigation actions and pathways
In the DDPP approach, once these factors are
required to achieve this. The experience of the
agreed, they inform sector-scaled modelling that
DDPP process also demonstrated that a number
considers a range of technologies and solutions
of common factors needed to be decided at the
that can reduce GHG emissions. This approach
start of their mitigation scenario planning to
typically focuses on proven low emissions
support analysis, including:
technologies rather than relying on future
technology breakthrough.
++ Revised results from previous strategies
that explore the potential for reductions
By considering opportunities for emissions
(to incorporate any technology gains,
reductions using the four pillars approach,
new information and innovation).
countries can achieve greater levels of ambition.
++ An estimate of the emissions reduction For example, traditional approaches may focus on
potential (in terms of orders of magnitude) improving energy efficiency in manufacturing, but
possible for each sector, including residual overlook emerging technologies that can enable
emissions (emissions difficult to reduce, onsite clean energy generation, or fuel switching
which may be from waste, agriculture and from fossil fuels to biogas produced onsite from
air or sea transport). It is important that residual waste from the manufacturing process.
these are in balance with the potential of While these opportunities may look small at
carbon sinks (through biological and the individual business level, when bundled up
geological sequestration). to the national level, they can achieve multiple
co-benefits in terms of emissions reductions,
++ A strategy showing how the burden (costs of
fuel security and waste reduction. Importantly,
abatement), as well as co-benefits can
for emerging or new technologies, work will need
be shared across sectors.
to be done with technical experts to test their
feasibility and agree on assumptions for emissions
reduction potential, uptake and cost.
Some mitigation options that are particularly 5. 2 DE VELOP AND VALIDATE

relevant to the Pacific are listed below, and have DATA A SSUMP TIONS
obvious co-benefits for improving resilience
(for example, by climate-proofing livelihoods), Whether sitting behind each low carbon
economic growth (by improving manufacturing technology choice, or defining each socio-
infrastructure, creating green jobs and reducing economic or sustainable development goal your
costly energy imports) and climate change pathway aims to achieve, you will need a set
adaptation (by protecting natural assets such of assumptions that shape the analysis and
as mangroves that can alleviate flooding while modelling outputs.
increasing fish and invertebrate stocks):
Assumptions are simplified, point-in-time
++ ELECTRICIT Y: Shifting to renewable representations of real world phenomena, for
electricity, increasing energy storage, example the average rate of per annum GDP
increasing efficiency in transmission and growth to 2050, or the projected rate of uptake
distribution and laying the foundation of a particular technology. There are practical
for smart grid technology. limitations to the extent they reflect current and
future real world systems. This can be particularly
++ TR ANSPORT: Shifting to hybrids and electric
challenging where there is no real world data to
vehicles, improving efficiency in maritime
draw on (for example, if a technology has not
transport and aviation, shifting to biofuels
been tried previously in a Pacific context).
(where potential for sustainable
production exists).
It is therefore critical that you widely test
++ RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL assumptions with relevant experts and
BUILDINGS: Reducing energy demand stakeholders. This could be achieved through
through improvements to the thermal a consensus building process in a stakeholder
efficiency of buildings, more efficient workshop. Doing so will ensure a broad range of
appliances, rooftop solar PV, reducing views are considered in formulating assumptions.
plug loads, using urban planning to enable It will also allow data inputs to be customised to
efficiency, improved cookstoves. local operational and policy conditions and can
account for development objectives and plans
++ MANUFACTURING AND INDUSTRY:
already enshrined in national,subnational and
Improving energy efficiency of equipment,
sectoral policy. Stakeholder consultation also
shifting diesel use to electricity or biofuels,
serves to build trust in the analysis and
waste heat capture and re-use.
credibility in the pathway.
++ AGRICULTURE: Employing best practice
agricultural practices to improve soil carbon, Examples of assumptions used in pathway
and reducing emissions from livestock. development include:
++ FORESTS AND BLUE C ARBON: Protecting ++ Future technology costs

and restoring forests and mangroves to
++ Abatement potential, or rates of
increase sequestration.
efficiency improvement
++ WA STE: Recycling and/or reducing waste,
++ Technology deployment or uptake rates
waste to energy, production of second
generation biofuels from waste. ++ Electricity generation capacity
++ Energy demand (by fuel type)
++ Operating and maintenance costs
++ Sequestration and planting rates for
restoring forests and mangroves
++ Projected rate of population and GDP growth
++ Projected distribution of income and
poverty rates
Assumptions should be transparent and this is Considering either adaptation or mitigation in

best achieved by logging them and making them isolation has limitations, and both perspectives
widely available in a technical report, once the should be considered when aiming to align
pathway is complete. Logging assumptions is climate policy with sustainable development.
essential so that all users of this information are For example, short term actions to protect
able to understand limitations of the modelling, coastlines from sea level rise and erosion through
are able to update the model as new information the construction of seawalls can result in trade-
comes to hand and are able to review the offs through impacts to coastal wetlands such
performance of the modelling to reflect the as mangroves. This in turn, can have negative
system it represents. This may be particularly long term consequences for carbon sequestration
important in overcoming any data quality issues and reduced livelihood opportunities for fishing
that could undermine confidence in the pathway. communities. Hydro presents another clear
A best practice guide to logging assumptions example: While it delivers substantial energy
has been developed by the UK Government’s security benefits, it may undermine long term
Department of Energy and Climate Change. water security and negatively affect waterways
ecosystems if not planned correctly. With
5. 3 A SSE SS CO-BENEFITS AND TR ADEOFFS integrated long term planning, such trade-offs
can be managed or minimised, but they highlight
Each mitigation option should be considered the importance of an holistic approach to long
in light of its potential co-benefits or trade- term planning.
offs in achieving improved climate change
adaptation, socio-economic and sustainable Further, pathways can provide a clear framework
development outcomes. This can inform a richer for grounding short or medium term National
assessment of each option than one focusing Adaptation Plans as well as other adaptation
solely on technology costs or emissions reduction planning processes in a longer term context
potential. For instance, the relationship between - ideally one that considers the broader
increasing renewable energy and improved energy development objectives of the country. In fact,
security, energy access, wellbeing, education and by framing the long term pathway as a means of
economic benefits, is a well understood synergy exploring how mitigation and adaptation action
in the Pacific. can support priority development outcomes, the
pathway team can build critical ownership of
An example is Palau’s Climate Change Policy the pathway vision, and embed climate action in
2015. This integrated framework brings together existing development planning processes. In other
adaptation, resilience, disaster management words, development can be the key driver in the
and a commitment to “mitigate global climate pathway process, supported by mitigation and
change by working towards low emission adaptation outcomes under different scenarios.
development”. More importantly it takes a “no
regrets” approach to development priorities and Most Pacific Island countries have already
mitigation actions. The Republic of Palau defines undertaken extensive adaptation planning,
this as “an approach that achieves benefits under and are only just now focussing on long term
all possible future climate change and disaster mitigation planning. Therefore, developing tools
scenarios, including both low emission and high that can support decision-making in addressing
emission (e.g. low impact and high impact) both positive linkages and potential trade-offs
cases and worst case disaster scenarios”. will be critical to the success of your efforts to
address climate change.
Adaptation and mitigation both aim to reduce
the negative impacts of climate change, but are
typically addressed separately in different policies
and processes and over different time horizons.
Through their work as low carbon modelling Where interactions can vary from positive to
experts and an Asia-Pacific based DDPP partner, negative depending on time scale, location, or
Climateworks Australia has developed a simple technology choice, further work needs to be
tool (see Figure 4 below) that highlights key done to understand and minimise any trade-off.
interactions between mitigation actions and And where interactions are always negative, a
adaptation and resilience outcomes in a Pacific decision will need to be made on whether the
Island context, showing where countries can expect mitigation or adaptation objective should
to find co-benefits and trade-offs. Applying this be prioritised. The Strategic Mitigation,
tool, mitigation actions can be considered ‘no Adaptation and Resilience Tool (SMART) is
regrets’ actions where co-benefits exist. accompanied by a SMART User’s Guide to
support the use of the tool.
Figure
6: Pacific Island Strategic Mitigation, Adaptation and Resilience Tool (SMART) (excerpt)
ADAPTATION RESILIENCE
Relocate human
Manage Manage Manage Manage Climate Sustained
populations to Economic
MITIGATION ACTIONS vulnerability to vulnerability to vulnerable increased resilient energy
adapt to climate resilience
water shortages food shortages ecosystems health risks infrastructure security
impacts
BUILDINGS
Increase energy

efficiency
Urban Planning for

energy efficiency
Fuel switch away from

fossil fuels
TRANSPORT
ROAD TRANSPORT
Reduced demand for

passenger transport
Passenger transport

modal shift
Increase energy

efficiency
Fuel switch to hybrid

vehicles and EVs
Fuel switch to

biofuels

N EGAT I V E VA R I E S + O R - POSITIVE N O N OTA B L E
temporal or spatial scales or (“no regrets” actions) I N T E R AC T I O N S
dependent on technology choice
ADDITIONAL RE SOURCE S ++ ClimateWatch’s NDC-SDG Linkages: Identifies

potential alignment between a country’s NDC
++ Climateworks Australia’s ‘Pacific Island and their SDG targets. Using the NDC as a
Strategic Mitigation, Adaptation and starting point it identifies potential linkages
Resilience Tool’ (SMART), and with SDGs based on a key words found in the
SMART User’s Guide. NDC text. This tool can be filtered to look at
particular countries or particular SDGs.
++ Climateworks Australia’s issues paper
‘Taking the Long View: Why a long term ++ The ‘Development Impacts Assessment (DIA)
approach for the developing world is crucial Toolkit’ helps decision makers qualitatively
to achieving the sustainable development and quantitatively analyse policy options
goals and climate safety’. to achieve low-emissions development
that supports national development goals.
++ SDG Climate Action Nexus Tool: A global
Unfortunately guidance on how to use this
tool that is designed to provide high level
tool is limited, so it is recommended that
guidance on how climate actions can
you contact the developers for support.
impact achievement of the SDGs.
5.4 UNDERTAKE A HIGH LE VEL 2. AVOID LO CK-IN / LO CK-O UT:

BARRIER ANALYSIS These actions may not have a strong value
proposition and may require greater effort to
A barrier can be any identifiable reason why implement but are important to address in
a specific emissions reduction opportunity the short term to avoid ‘lock-in’ (long-lived
struggles to enter a market or be taken up in a technologies or assets that may undermine
given economy. While this step will provide some future efforts to reduce emissions, or become
initial work to understand barriers to inform stranded assets) or ‘lock-out’ (actions that
modelling of the potential for uptake of different prevent opportunities from contributing to
technologies, a more detailed analysis of barriers the achievement of the pathway in future).
and solutions should be undertaken to inform In some cases, investment in key technologies
implementation planning (Step 7). comes with a high near term cost, in order to
meet growing demand for the medium and long
You should include a high level barriers analysis
term, and achieve impact, accelerate growth
and implementation roadmap in the pathway
and incentivise benefits. These investments
report (Step 6) to demonstrate initial thinking
may not reflect the ‘least cost’ objectives that
and present case studies that illustrate how
traditionally dominate economic decision
these barriers can be overcome. It will help to
making, but for many Pacific Island countries,
ground the analysis while ensuring that the
they may be achievable through co-financing.
pathway a) acknowledges key barriers so your
Examples of such investments include electric
team can pre-empt any criticism that the
vehicle charging infrastructure, low or zero
pathway is not feasible due to barriers, and
emissions marine transport and building
b) provide key recommendations and applied
electricity distribution networks to reduce
examples of how barriers could be overcome to
the levelised cost of energy. Delaying these
support key recommendations.
types of investments in favour of standard
A high level barrier analysis involves categorising technologies, can ‘lock in’ higher levels of
technologies/opportunities into three categories, GHG emissions, or strand infrastructure assets
creating a high level roadmap of action: before the investment has been recouped.
In contrast, sending clear market signals in
favour of low emissions technologies can
1. ACCELER ATE ACTION:
stimulate opportunities to bundle projects and
Often called ‘least regrets actions’, these
investment, lowering project and transaction
actions are relatively easy to implement and
costs. ‘Lock-out’ occurs when opportunities to
offer strong benefit and relevance over other
avoid or sequester emissions aren’t protected,
options (in other words, they offer a strong
for example through conversion of forests (which
‘value proposition’). They will typically deliver
can provide a key means of achieving very low or
positive outcomes for climate mitigation,
net zero emissions) to agricultural land.
adaptation and sustainable development
when implemented. For example, improving
3. PREPARE FOR THE FUTURE:
energy efficiency in commercial and
These actions don’t necessarily have a strong
public buildings can reduce energy use,
value proposition, they may not be ready to
GHG emissions and exposure to extreme
be implemented (i.e. they may require further
temperatures through efficient cooling
research and development or capacity building
systems and improving the thermal efficiency
to ensure they are implemented effectively
of buildings. Protecting valuable coastal
in future), and are not at risk of ‘lock-in’ or
ecosystems such as mangroves and seagrasses
‘lock-out’. However, work needs to be done in
can help protect against extreme weather
the short term to prepare for ramping up in
events and rising sea levels, sequester carbon,
future years to achieve a very low or net zero
reduce coastal erosion, and provide nursery
emissions target. This includes technologies that
habitat for fish species, improving livelihoods
are unproven or uncommercialised in a Pacific
for fishing communities.
Island context, or where local skills and supply
chains don’t exist, making them too costly.
STEP 06
Socialise long term

pathways
6.1 PRE SENT A CLE AR AND

COMPELLING PATHWAY
The output of most long term planning STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT

processes is a written report. Ideally, your
report should be succinct and engaging, The public release of your pathway report
focused on selling the vision of the long term presents a key opportunity for stakeholder
transformation through well thought out engagement, enabling briefings at varied levels
visuals and accessible language. It should of technical detail for different audiences.
also clearly link to existing national strategic
development priorities, strategic plans and Technical briefings can help build
national commitments (such as NDCs, understanding of, and confidence in, the
National Adaptation Plans and national pathway for policy makers, donors and
development plans). By creating an holistic industry experts. To build widespread civil
mid-century vision of progress, the pathway society support for the pathway (often
can act as an overarching framework to guide critical in creating enabling conditions for
short and medium term planning for climate policy change), the pathway should also
action and socio-economic development. be promoted to NGOs, businesses and the
broader public.
Importantly, your mid-century pathway
can also be submitted to the UNFCCC
under Article 4.19 of the Paris Agreement,
which invites all parties to formulate and
communicate long-term low greenhouse gas
emission development strategies by 2020.
Doing so will help to demonstrate the social,
environmental and economic wins that come
with deep decarbonisation, heightening the
imperative for other countries to increase
their own ambition.
In the interests of transparency, pathways

teams are also encouraged to make a
technical report publicly available, which
details the underpinning assumptions
(from the assumptions log developed in
Step 5.2) and key data sources behind
the main report. This helps to reinforce
the credibility of the work.
C A SE STUDY
REPUBLIC OF MAR SHALL ISL ANDS

ELECTRICIT Y ROADMAP
P ROJ EC T D E S C R I P T I O N :
The development of the Republic of Marshall

Islands’ (RMI) Electricity Roadmap provides a
useful case study of a long-term, participatory
planning process to prepare a coordinated and
comprehensive framework for the whole of RMI’s
Electricity Sector from 2018-2050. The overall
objective of the project is to improve energy
sector planning and coordination to support
achievement of the RMI’s renewable energy
and climate change goals.
M E T H O D O LO GY:
Whilst still under development at time of

publication of this guide, the RMI Electricity
Roadmap includes two broad categories
of activities (‘Stakeholder Processes’ and
‘Information gathering, analysis and expert
advice’) across two project phases:
PHA SE 2:
PHA SE 02
PHA SE 01
DEVELOP ROADMAPS
++ Identify technology pathways to RMI achieving

PHA SE 1: their 2025, 2030 and 2050 electricity targets,
P L A N A N D P R E PA R E with analysis including cost, diesel savings
and greenhouse gas reductions
++ Establish the core Working Group and request
that the Tile Til Eo Committee (a group of ++ Develop a policy, institutional and regulatory
high-level RMI officials, with a mandate to roadmap, that will identify key barriers to,
oversee the implementation of the RMI’s NDC) and enabling conditions required for the
become a Steering Committee rollout of technology pathways and key
financing options
++ Recruitment of key personnel and experts
++ Develop a Human Resource Strategy to
++ Identify stakeholders and convene
estimate future workforce requirements
development partners
and identify preferred strategies for
++ Determine scope and boundaries meeting these requirements
++ Prepare gap assessment (to identify the ++ Develop Financing Strategy by estimating
current activities, gaps and needs for the financing needs based on costs from the
development of the RMI electricity sector technology pathways and associated human
as it transitions to renewable energy) resource needs, and identify preferred
financing options
Figure 7: A snapshot of RMI’s Electricity Roadmap process
P L A N + P R E PA R E D E V E LO P ROA D M A P S
++ Establish Tile Til Eo and Working Group ++ Expert judgement

and stakeholder ++ Vision from RMI’s
++ Recruit Energy Advisor role ++ Identify priorities
consensus energy future and
and address
USER ++ Indentify stakeholders review energy
++ Tile Til Eo, Cabinet, barriers
GROUPS ++ Convene development partners goals
stakeholders
++Review existing studies

++Collect baseline data ++Techno-economic
++Prepare draft
analysis of options
++Assess technologies costed technology
and recommend
++Develop energy roadmap
TECHNOLOGY pathways
system scenarios
++Identify barriers
and enabling
++Identify and map policy ++Prepare draft
conditions for rollout
POLICY + ++ DETERMINE SCOPE related activities
of technology and
policy roadmap
REGULATIONS financing
++ IDENTIFY AND ENGAGE EXPERTS
++ PREPARE GAP ASSESSMENT
++Identify future
++Gather information workforce needs ++Prepare draft
on current HR and
++Analyse options HR strategy
HUMAN existing opportunities
RESOURCES ++Cost options
++Identify financing
++Identify current needs from
financing situation technology pathways ++Prepare draft
and future financing strategy
FINANCING ++Assess financing
opportunities
STRATEGY options
Source: RMI Long Term Electricity Roadmap Project Description
SUCCE SS FACTOR S:
++ BUILDING THE RIGHT TEAM: + + G OV E R N A N C E :

Whilst technical skills are important (e.g. Consider establishing a Working Group that
modelling, data analysis) the RMI Electricity is small but well-staffed. This small group
Roadmap team also hired for complementary should contain members who are actively
skills such as stakeholder engagement and involved and represent key functions such as
collaborative strategy development. It’s worth the Heads of agencies for Energy, Environment
considering recruiting team members skilled in and International Development, along with a
storytelling and building a narrative. representative from the technical team.
+ + CO N T E X T: + + P E E R R E V I E W P RO C E SS :
As much as possible the team should be Once the implementation plan/options have
locally based and have deep, culturally specific been drafted in consultation with your broader
experience of the country. If external advisors stakeholders, consider sharing them with key
are required, prioritise those with in-country or donors for review. Donors have useful and
at least Pacific experience. Building a pathway detailed insights into a country’s context.
can be a challenging process for all members If feedback is sought, be sure to provide
involved, so having a team that is local and detailed responses to each donor.
face-to-face will help to work through this.
PREPARING FOR
STEP 07
PATHWAY IMPLEMENTATION
STEP 07
Analyse barriers and

identify solutions
This step seeks to understand what needs Each area of your pathway plan may face a
to change to ensure that an emissions range of barriers. The following table can be
reduction opportunity can succeed over useful for analysing barriers and determining
the long term. Answering this question may a strategy for intervention.
include examining additional barriers that
weren’t explored in detail in the technical Typically, you’ll find some barriers are more
analysis, and adopting a ‘blue sky’ approach impactful than others, and by addressing
to thinking through systemic problems (for these barriers, other barriers are likely to
example, if no supply chains currently exist to become less problematic. Economic and
enable this opportunity, what would it take financial barriers often fall into this category.
to build those supply chains?). For example, a low carbon technology may
face several barriers, such as high upfront
Step 7 often focuses at a sector or sub-sector cost, lack of technical capacity to install and
level and takes a deeper dive into the high use the technology, and lack of awareness.
level barriers analysis outlined in Step 5.4. It A program that addresses the cost barrier
involves working with stakeholders to identify (such as a subsidy) can sometimes be enough
short and medium term strategies and to unlock the opportunity, as businesses
interventions that can analyse and address will then make an effort to learn about the
barriers in greater depth. technology and build internal capacity to use
the technology, once they can access it at an
Key stakeholders you should include are affordable price.
any organisations, institutions or individuals
who have a key stake in the outcome. Once all key barriers and their potential
This will include both those who are solutions have been identified, it may be
committed to change, and those who are useful to map them using a problem mapping
invested in the status quo. Ensuring all or mind mapping approach.
voices are heard is critical to driving genuine
understanding of why a barrier should be This will help your pathways team to
overcome, as well as agreement around how is understand links between different barriers
best achieved. The process requires consensus and their potential solutions, and identify
building, and often compromise. Ultimately, those barriers and solutions that are likely to
the best solution is one that will work be most effective in unlocking the emissions
because it has buy-in from the people who reduction opportunity.
can make or break the outcome.
PREPARING FOR
PREPARING FOR
STEP 07
PATHWAY
IMPLEMENTATION
Table 5: Barriers analysis framework
M I T I GAT I O N AC T I O N / C AT EG O RY (to be undertaken for each key mitigation action, or category of actions)
S O LU T I O N S CO-BENEFITS OR D EG R E E WHO HOLDS

C AT EG O R I E S O F IDENTIFIED
TO OV E RC O M E T R A D E - O F F S TO O F E F F O RT RESPONSIBILITY
BARRIERS BARRIERS
BARRIERS S O LU T I O N S R EQ U I R E D FOR THIS ACTION?
EC O N O M I C +
FINANCIAL
MARKET
CONDITIONS
LEGAL AND
REGUL ATORY
NET WORK
ST RU C T U R E S
INSTITUTIONAL +
ORGANISATIONAL
C APACIT Y
HUMAN SKILL S
SO CIAL,
C U LT U R A L +
B E H AV I O U R A L
I N F O R M AT I O N +
AWA R E N E SS
TECHNICAL
Source: Adapted from UNEP-DTU Partnership’s ‘Enhancing Implementation of Technology Needs Assessments’
It is also critical to consider the right ‘mix’ of Consideration should also be given regarding how
proposed solutions, the interactions between to embed the pathway into a country’s overarching
them and their potential co-benefits. For legal frameworks. For example, embedding a
example, policy and regulatory interventions such long term emissions reduction target (e.g. net
as legislating a net zero target or introducing zero by 2050) into legislation gives it significantly
a carbon tax, would send clear signals across more power and will ensure it filters down across
the economy to reduce emissions and stimulate all areas of government and is considered in all
new markets for carbon sinks (such as forest or policy making. Without legal recognition, it risks
mangrove restoration). Introducing a feed-in remaining a lofty goal, and one that may be
tariff incentivises new renewables to enter the deprioritised against other regulatory obligations
market, creating new business opportunities and or ministerial priorities.
jobs. And shifting public procurement policy can
stimulate markets for low emissions vehicles and Finally, barriers and their solutions should be
energy efficiency technologies, creating market prioritised. The categories described in Step 5.4
demand, building local capacity and reducing (i.e. ‘accelerate action, avoid lock-in/out and
technology costs. ‘prepare for the future’) provide a good initial
framework for prioritisation. However this
A single policy or regulatory change that can should be further informed by more detailed
unlock multiple low emissions technologies consideration of the degree of effort required,
along with co-benefits can be considered a any co-benefits or trade-offs, and identification
‘keystone solution’. of any keystone solutions.
PREPARING FOR
STEP 08
STEP 08
Develop an
implementation plan
Your implementation plan should bring

together guidance from the pathway
regarding the time horizon for scaling up
low carbon technologies (and phasing
out high carbon technologies), along
with the detailed barriers analysis, in
order to identify short, medium and long
term actions required for a mid-century
transition to very low or net zero emissions.
It also needs to consider what’s required to
implement short term actions, and identify
any risks that need to be mitigated.
Finally, it needs to outline how to develop
a financing plan for implementing
these actions.
Implementation plans can be developed

at the whole of economy or sectoral level,
depending on your country’s preference.
PREPARING FOR
PREPARING FOR
STEP 08
PATHWAY
IMPLEMENTATION
8.1 PRIORITISE IMPLEMENTATION ACTIONS
The following steps outline a process for 4. Identify any risks that may prevent a
prioritising the mitigation actions that will form mitigation action from being implemented
the basis of your implementation plan: effectively, and how those risks can
be managed.
1. Divide mitigation actions into ‘short term’,
5. Finally, formulate an approach to prioritising
‘medium term’ or ‘long term’ depending on
implementation actions, which will include
the time horizon needed to pilot and scale up
a combination of both mitigation actions,
each technology in order to achieve emissions
and barrier solutions (identified in Step 7).
reduction goals at the required time step.
Different stakeholders will want to prioritise
2. You can use the table below to arrange actions in different ways, and this process
mitigation actions according to the should be undertaken in consultation with
categories identified in the barriers analysis whoever will be responsible for these actions.
(‘accelerate action’, ‘avoiding lock-in/lock- For example, policy makers responsible for
out’, ‘preparing for the future’). setting renewable energy targets (barrier
solution ‘owners’) will have different priorities
3. Identify who’s responsible for implementing
and constraints to renewable energy
each mitigation action and what resources
developers (mitigation action ‘owners’).
will be required to enable implementation.
However, both perspectives will need to
Resources can include human resources,
be considered and accounted for in the
supply chains, infrastructure, and finance.
implementation plan.
Table 6: Categorisation of mitigation actions
AC C E L E R AT E AC T I O N AVO I D LO C K I N / LO C K O U T P R E PA R E F O R T H E F U T U R E
S H O RT T E R M
MEDIUM TERM
LO N G T E R M
PREPARING FOR
STEP 08
8.2 DE VELOP A FINANCING PL AN
CO N S I D E R T H E E N A B L I N G E N V I RO N M E N T I D E N T I F Y AVA I L A B L E D O M E ST I C F I N A N C E S
It is critical to ensure you have an environment Once overall financing needs have been
that will attract and drive investment towards quantified, the pathways team (or implementing
the priority climate actions identified through agency) should evaluate domestic sources of
your pathways process. And so this step involves finance that are available to support any priority
bringing together potential public and private policy changes, capacity building requirements
partners, supported by relevant technical and and technology deployment. Financing available
financial experts, to jointly assess and develop from different entities (i.e. from the government,
priority options identified for financing. Doing private sector or households) should be considered,
so can support government to adopt the right including domestic equity and debt.
policy, regulatory and governance requirements
to facilitate lowest emissions development, direct In order to understand financial flows within your
public expenditure towards priority goals, and country, the pathways team (or implementing
provide clear guidance to donors and investors agency) should request access to your country’s
on key opportunities for financing. Pacific Climate Change Finance Assessment.
This is a robust and participatory process, led
A S S E S S T H E C O STS by the Pacific Island Forum Secretariat to assess
Once your priority measures have been identified, Pacific Island member countries’ ability to access
implementation and financing costs need to be and manage climate change resources. At time
determined. This will include both the technology of print, assessments had been completed for
deployment costs, as well as the costs associated Vanuatu, Samoa, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Nauru,
with policy change processes, capacity building, Palu, Tonga, Federated States of Micronesia, and
designing and establishing programs, project Kiribati, with plans for completion of Papua New
feasibility studies, monitoring, enforcement costs, Guinea and Tuvalu assessments.
etc, and will form the basis of a financing plan.
D E T E R M I N E T H E N E E D FO R E X T E R N A L
F I N A N C I A L SU P P O RT
Having analysed the domestic financial resources
available for the implementation of the pathway,
you will be able to determine whether external
resources are required in the form of debt,
equity or financial support through an available
channel. If external financial support is required,
your sources of support need to be considered.
++ UNDP’s ‘Methodology Guidebook for the

Assessment of Investment and Financial Flows
to Address Climate Change’ provides guidance
on establishing a framework and approach to
assessing investment needs.
PREPARING FOR
STEP 08
The following summarises categories of funding including a more detailed description of the
emerging finance options.
++ Official Development Assistance e.g. bilateral aid, multilateral banks

or Green Climate Fund
PUBLIC FUNDS ++ Rebates and Subsidies

++ National and regional banks
++ Tax Incentives to attract foreign direct investment
++ Non-government organisations
++ Philanthropy
P R I VAT E F U N D S
++ Superannuation Funds
++ Institutional Investors e.g. Insurance Funds and Private Investors
M A R K E T- B A S E D ++ Carbon Finance
M EC H A N I S M S ++ Capital Markets - currently in early stages in Fiji and PNG
+ + A N G E L I N V E STO R S + + VA LU E (SU PP LY) CH A I N FI N A N CE

An angel investor provides an injection Relevant for the agricultural sector, this
of capital to a business, most often in involves finance being provided within
the early stages but post start-up. the value chain from an internal actor
(e.g. a farmer or supplier) or externally
+ + C RO W D F U N D I N G
(e.g. a bank provides credit secured by
Small amounts of money are solicited
a contract with a trusted purchaser).
from a large number of individuals in
order to raise funds for a smaller + + R I S K S H A R E FAC I L I T Y
project or venture. Already operating in PNG at BSP
(the country’s largest bank), this
+ + B LU E B O N D S
E M E RG I N G facility is working with International
Work in a similar way to Green bonds
Finance Corporation to guarantee
but are instead applied to ocean-based
50% of commercial loans provided
activities. They offer the opportunity for
by partner institutions to Small and
private capital firms to diversify their
Medium Enterprises that meet
investment portfolio into products that
the selection criteria.
generate a financial return as well as
deliver marine environmental benefits. + + I M PAC T I N V E ST I N G
For example, Seychelles has already This type of investment bears some
offered a sovereign blue bond to attract similarity to established models of
private capital firms to invest venture capital investment.
in fisheries management.
Source: adapted from Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat’s ‘Developing a Regional Finance Facility for the Pacific’, UNDP’s
‘Financing the SDGs in the Pacific Islands’ and UNDP’s ‘Charting A New Low-Carbon Route To Development’.
It is important to note the potential for new

opportunities for climate finance. For example,
in October 2017, Fiji became the first emerging ADDITIONAL RE S OURCE S
economy to issue a sovereign green bond,
raising $50 million to fund both mitigation and ++ UNDP’s ‘Catalysing Climate Finance:
adaptation actions. The proceeds of the bond A guidebook on policy and financing options’.
will be exclusively applied to projects that have
++ UNFCCC’s ‘Preparing and presenting
clear environmental benefits and promote low
proposals: A guidebook on preparing
carbon, climate resilient growth.
technology transfer projects for financing’.
PREPARING FOR
STEP 08
8.3 CONSIDER ALIGNMENT WITH The information compiled in this step can now
E XISTING PL ANNING PRO CE SSE S be summarised into an implementation plan.
While the format of this may be specific to your
Given the the benefits of aligning short and country, it should at minimum include:
medium term planning processes with the
vision of a climate safe, prosperous future that ++ Short/medium/and long term
your pathway outlines, consideration should implementation priorities
be given to opportunities to embed the long ++ Investment required and a financing plan
term goals identified in the pathway through
scheduled reviews to national development ++ Regulatory, institutional and operational
plans, NAPs, NDCs, energy roadmaps and framework for implementation
other planning processes. ++ Alignment with existing planning processes
++ Monitoring and evaluation mechanisms
The timing of these review processes may
further inform prioritisation of implementation ++ Timeline for review and updating of the plan
actions. For example, if a required policy (to ensure it remains current)
change has been identified to unlock a
mitigation opportunity, it may be possible to Once finalised, the implementation plan should
prioritise or reflect the policy outcome in a be presented to key public and private financial
short or medium term planning process. actors, then made publicly available.
8.4 COLL ATE INFORMATION INTO

AN IMPLEMENTATION PL AN
This process brings together the regulatory and USING REGUL ATION TO SEND
policy changes, capacity building, supply chain, MARKE T SIGNAL S
infrastructure needs and finance requirements
Some Pacific countries have already sought to
over different time horizons to enable a smooth
introduce renewable energy policy instruments
transition to a climate safe, prosperous future.
and incentives. For example, in mid-2014,
Vanuatu set feed-in-tariffs and net-metering
A decision should also be made about
for residential renewable energy customers.
governance for the implementation of the
Additionally, Vanuatu’s Utilities Regulatory
pathway. For example, it could rest with the
Authority is developing Power Purchase
pathways team and multi-stakeholder advisory
Agreement formats for the private
panel (which would need to be institutionalised
generation of power.
to oversee implementation), or it could be
mainstreamed into existing government
Source: Vanuatu: Renewables Readiness Assessment.
administration. Whichever option is chosen,
this body will play a critical role in driving
the implementation plan and coordinating
action across government, civil society and the
financing sector. It will also include ensuring
the required regulatory and policy changes
are achieved to support implementation and
will therefore need to be empowered with the ADDITIONAL RE S OURCE S
credibility, public leadership and authority
to do so. ++ UNDP’s ‘Preparing Low-Emission Climate-
Resilient Development Strategies’ provides
guidance that may be useful in developing
an implementation (or action) plan.
PREPARING FOR
STEP 08
Once finalised, the

implementation plan
should be presented to
key public and private
financial actors, then
made publicly available.
G L O S S A RY
G LO SS A RY
ADAP TATION DA SHB OARDS
Is the process of adjustment to actual or expected Are data tables describing pathways in
climate and its effects. In human systems, quantitative terms. A common dashboard
adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or allows the assumptions and results of different
exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural pathways studies to be communicated and
systems, human intervention may facilitate compared, even when different models are
adjustment to expected climate and its effects. used to produce them.
A SSUMP TIONS KE YSTONE S OLUTION
Are simplified, point-in-time representations of Describes a barrier solution that, when

real world phenomena, for example the average implemented, can unlock multiple mitigation
rate of per annum GDP growth to 2050, or the opportunities and co-benefits. Examples may
projected rate of uptake of particular technology. include legislating a net zero target or introducing
a carbon tax to send clear signals across the
economy to reduce emissions and stimulate
new markets for carbon sinks (such as forest or
BACKC A STING mangrove restoration), or implementing a low
carbon public procurement policy which stimulate
Is an approach to modelling that starts with markets for low emissions vehicles and energy
the desired end state and works backward to the efficiency technologies, creating market
present, to ensure that analysis is consistent with demand, building local capacity and
ambition at key time steps along the pathway to reducing technology costs.
net zero by mid-century.
‘LO CK IN’
BA SELINE (OR REFERENCE) SCENARIO
Occurs where investment in long-lived
Is defined as ‘the state against which change is technologies or assets (typically fossil fuel-
measured’. Often called a Business as Usual (BAU) dependent assets) undermines future effort to
scenario, it estimates emissions growth, and reduce emissions, or increases the risk of stranded
changes in other key socio-economic measures assets (where assets need to be abandoned
such as GDP or poverty rates which are expected before the end of their economic life).
to occur over the given time frame, based on the
continuation of current policies and programs.
G L O S S A RY
‘LO CK-OUT’ RE SILIENCE
Occurs when actions - such as policy change - Is the ability of a system, community or society
create conditions that prevent opportunities from exposed to climate change impacts to resist,
contributing to emissions reductions in future, for absorb, accommodate or recover from the
example where land use change prevents carbon consequences of these impacts in a timely
sequestration activities in future. and efficient manner.
MITIGATION S CENARIO
Is human intervention to reduce the sources of, Is a plausible and often simplified description
or enhance the sinks (absorption) of greenhouse of how future climate and socio-economic
gases (GHG). development goals may be achieved, based on
a coherent and internally consistent set
of assumptions.
MODEL S
Are mathematical representations of physical VALIDATING

and economic systems used to explore and test
2050 pathways scenarios. Models are chosen Is the process of testing and refining data
based on their fit with research and policy and assumptions with technical and policy
questions and their ability to produce the experts to improve the accuracy and credibility
necessary quantitative outputs. of the analysis.
NARR ATIVE S VALUE PROP OSITION
Are stories that describe the transition to a low Provides an assessment of a mitigation
carbon future that meets socio-economic goals. opportunity, based on its attractiveness to key
The exact form of a narrative depends on the stakeholders. Opportunities with a strong value
participants and circumstances but, in general, proposition will typically be relatively easy to
they should aim to be qualitative descriptions implement and offer strong co-benefits.
of long term transformation accessible to a
wide audience.
C O N TAC T
ClimateWorks Australia
Level 16, 41 Exhibition St
Melbourne, Victoria 3000
P: +61 3 9902 0741

E: info@climateworksaustralia.org
AU T H O R S
MEG ARGYRIO U
Head of International Programs
E: meg.argyriou@climateworksaustralia.org
SHARNA NOL AN
International Program Manager
E: sharna.nolan@climateworksaustralia.org
DANI ROBERTSON
International Project Manager
E: dani.robertson@climateworksaustralia.org
Published by ClimateWorks Australia

Melbourne, Victoria, August 2018
© ClimateWorks Australia 2018
This work is subject to copyright. Apart from any use permitted

under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any
process without written permission from the publisher.
This report may be downloaded at: www.climateworksaustralia.org
ClimateWorks Australia is an expert, independent adviser, committed to helping Australia and our region
transition to net zero emissions by 2050. It was co-founded through a partnership between Monash University
and The Myer Foundation and works within the Monash Sustainable Development Institute.

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Founding partners Monash University

THE ‘FOUR PILL AR S’ OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS

REDUCE ENERGY USE SWITCH TO CLE ANER FUEL S

Choose equipment and assets that Once electricity is powered by

PRODUCE CLE ANER SORT OUT AND STORE THE REST

CO-BENEFIT S ++ Switching from fossil fuels to cleaner forms

ClimateWorks Australia is an expert, independent

It was co-founded in 2009 by The Myer Foundation

ClimateWorks Australia also benefits from strong ACKNOWLED GEMENT S

A NOTE ON TERMINOLO GY:

ST E P 8: D E V E LO P A PAT H WAY I M P L E M E N TAT I O N P L A N 54

It communicates the rationale and usefulness of 3. Assess your country’s ‘readiness’

5 DE VELOP + ITER ATE

PRINCIPLE S COMMON TO ALL ++ Socio-economic, adaptation, resilience and

Figure 2: The Pathway Process

Analyse barriers and

STEP 2 identify solutions

For example, the narrative may be refined

While these steps are

Build the right

Ideally, the pathway process should be driven

Ultimately, establishing the right team

KE Y SKILL S THAT YOUR PATHWAYS TE AM IN IDENTIF YING THE RIGHT MITIGATION

++ Project management expertise, ++ What other analytical, modelling or planning

++ The Islands Playbook has a Project Skills

This step suggests tools and resources that

The pathways development process engages

Source: 2050 Pathways: A Handbook

The following stakeholder analysis template can

The template should also be revisited during the

Table 1: Template for stakeholder analysis

STA K E H O L D E R K E Y I N F LU E N C E R I N F LU E N C E SIGNIFICANCE I N T E R E ST RELEVANT POLICIES

++ Island Playbook’s ‘Stakeholder Engagement

It may also be useful to map stakeholders

What influence does the stakeholder have over

used in this approach are:

should be on equipping them with the

Table 2: Stakeholder engagement plan

STA K E H O L D E R 1 STA K E H O L D E R 2 STA K E H O L D E R 3 STA K E H O L D E R 4

LEARNING AND COMMUNICATION

++ ODI’s ‘ROMA: A guide to policy engagement

The Talanoa Dialogue

Under Fiji’s UNFCCC Presidency of COP 23,

The Dialogue design also provided an enabling

“The purpose of Talanoa is to

MANAGING STAKEHOLDER RISK

Table 3: Regional and international technical expertise on climate action

O RGA N I S AT I O N S A N D T EC H N I C A L P ROV I D E R S NET WORKS

++ The Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment ++ Pacific Resilience Partnership

FIJI’S LONG TERM LOW EMISSIONS

In 2018 following on from the development

As part of this, the Ministry of Economy Climate

+ + ST E E R I N G CO M M I T T E E : Which includes ++ UNDP’s LECRDS 1.0 ‘Multi-stakeholder

Assess readiness for

++ Are roles and responsibilities clearly delineated between government departments,

3. 2 MAP AND RE VIE W PRE VIOUSLY MODELLING APPROACHE S TO DE VELOP

++ ‘Improving deep decarbonization modelling

++ Extensively used, including in PICs

++ Can support different modelling ++ Cannot identify development benefits

++ Assumes perfect market

++ Requires significant data inputs

3. 3 A SSE SS DATA QUALIT Y AND GAP S