Indian Institute of Foreign Trade MBA (IB) 2022-24 Mid-Term Examination Course: Businoss Statistics Time: 4 hour 20 min Max. Marks: 20 Note: Attempt any 4 questions, each question carry equal marks, JOT. S. Khan, an engineer for Super Jet Aircraft, disagrees with his supervisor about the likelihood of landing-gear failure on the company’s new airliner. isaac contends that the probability of landing-gear failure is 0.12, while his Supervisor maintains that the probability is only 0.03. The two agree that if the landing gear fails, the airplane will crash with probability 0.55. Otherwise, the Probability of a crash is only 0.06. A test flight is conducted, and the airplane crashes. a. Using T. S. Khan's figure, what is the probability that the airplane's landing gear failed? b. Repeat part (a) using the supervisor's figure. .2¢ Sandy Irick is the public relations director for a large pharmaceutical firm that @ has been attacked in the popular press for distributing an allegedly unsafe vaccine. The vaccine protects against a virulent contagious disease that has a 0.04 probability of killing an infected person. Twenty-five percent of the population has been vaccinated. A researcher has told her the following: The probability of any unvaccinated individual acquiring the disease is 0.30. Once vaccinated, the probability of acquiring the disease through normal means is zero. However, 2 percent of vaccinated people will show symptoms of thedisease, and 3 percent of that group will die from it. Of people who are vaccinated and showno symptoms from the vaccination, 0.05 percent will die. Irick must draw some conclusions from these data for a staff meeting in 1 hour ‘and a news conference later in the day. aS a. Ifaperson is vaccinated, what is the probability of dying from the vaccine? If he was notvaccinated, what is the probability of dying? b. What is the probability of a randomly selected person dying from either the vaccine or the normally contracted disease?%- The pressroom supervisor fora dally newspaper is being pressured to Pen [O.Print thepaper closer to distribution time, thus giving the editorial staff more !geWay for last-minute changes. She has the option of running the presses at normal” speed or at 110 percent of normal—ast" speed. She estimates 1 they will run at the higher speed 60 percent of the time. The roll of paper (the newsprint "web") is twice as likely to tear at the higher speed, which would mean temporarily stopping the presses, @. Ifthe web on a randomly selected printing run has a probability of 0.112 of tearing, whatis the probability that the web will not tear at normal speed? . If the probability of tearing on fast speed is 0.20, what is the probability that a randomly selected torn web occurred on normal speed? ¢. The supervisor has noted that the web tore during each of the last four runs and that the speed of the press was not changed during these four runs. If the Probabilities of tearing at fast and slow speeds were 0.14 and 0.07, respectively, what is the revised probability that the press was operating at fast speed during the last four runs? (I) Acertain business school has 400 students in its MBA program. Eighty students are married. Determine a. The probability that exactly 2 of 3 randomly selected students are married. b. The probability that exactly 4 of 13 students chosen at random are married, (ll) Adata firm records a large amount of data. Historically, .9% of the pages of data recorded by the firm contain errors. If 200 pages of data are randomly selected, , a. What is the probability that six or more pages contain errors? b. What is the probability that more than 10 pages contain errors? a The World Trade Organization talks, part of the Doha Round, took place in Hong Kong between 13 and 18 December 2005. According fo data, the average percentage tariff imposed on all the tangible goods and services in certain selected countries is as follows: i [india European Burkina Faso | Brazil United State Europ 37% 29.1% [42% 12.0% [2m 7%Ita wien SAM DIE OF S00 Inported tangible goods or service into Doporti ested. What is the probabllly that the average Ae. HON OF the teuitte for thi sample would bo bolwaen 15% apd » M&K. Sent {8 (he manager of an ©xulusIVe shop that sells women's leather clothing and Acoossoren, AL the beginning of the fall/winter keaRON, Ms. Son Must decide how many fulldongth leather jackets {0 Older, These Jackels cost hor 4100 each and will sell for $200 each, Any Jackets loll ovor at tho end of the season will have to be sold at a RO Percent discount In order to make room for spring/ sumer tnventory, From past experience, Soni knows that the demand for the Jackets has the following probability distribution: Number’ of jackets [8 | 4042 a 16 demanded Probabilily ~~ 0.2 0.25 |0.30 |0.15 She also knows that any leftover Jacket can be sold at discount. If Soni decides to order 14 jackets, what is her expected profit? . Mixcy has just purchased a Computer program that claims to pick stocks that will increase in price in the next week with an 85 percent accuracy rate. On how many stocks should Mixcy test this program in order to be 95 percent certain that the percentage of the stocks that do in fact go up in the next week will be within +£0.05 of the sample proportion? Best of LuckQa Binoniat Probability Disttbution 1100 ae 0 200 nel oobablty 2 si 00 000) Aypenne ome oO 1 180 320 420 ABO An 2 ooo 360 3 Troliliy oO ne 2 3 216" 125 64 027 008 HOt Dds Sw al nh ag oe ko 6 Tee aay vom cam aan sre) ot, nly Sa Sr oe aya as ais nea aay Sa a Eee a aes lass Nt oun 7 eae aioe se a aes | maz, 3s ears 2 bo a ds ate ae 25 sh 8 3 om moe it ao MGA ao i moo aun mos ages 302s 0 590 1 328 gear 3.008 4 900 5.000 328 410 205 051 006 000 Probability A 3 078 259.156 36 313 230313 077156 mo 031 6 “910 07 230 346 259 078 902 028 132 309 360 168, 410 328 73 ee robablsy ae eID oy am 70945710 aoa ato Te Sek SIL BME 8501s om 2 em as 6s mts eee ee eT 6 toe a) 0) oo ao ahs AWiel Prabal Dhtebution (Conta) 0 a a Mi ay on ol 002 000) 000 000 000 000 000 a Ne M0 as aa mn oy) 10 002 000 000 1000 000 tw 4 mn 027 on) 7 a6 mt M7 70 023 003 ool 000 nei jobablity 4 0 005 ay oat 61 206 26 ANG ont on 005 000 000) 00 005, 003 070. a7 a 236 77 oK9 oy got ve 000 oot 004 O17 037 132 220 251 200 093 020 wren A Taboo 769 000) 000 ‘000 1000 000 000 002 016 on 23 384 3M “oy 000.000 1 205 “ooo 000.000 2 2x a8 8 090.000 .000 > ost ‘oor 000.000 40233 BL 008 001.000 5 Ok 05388 029.003 000 6 000016079 079016 000 7900 = 003.029 158.059 004 6 000 001008 231133 at 9 000 00000 240236085 10 ov 000000 68283 11 000,000.00 on 206377 12.000 000000 old 069282 ne13 Probability et 2 3 4 $ 6 7 8 2 0 254055100, «000000 «00000000 1367179034002 .000 00000000 2 2452681391000 000 3 100246218035 0060000000 4 028) AS4 234 BA 087024003 000.000 5 006 069180221157 0660400000 6 01-023 U3- «1972093044 006.000 7 000.006.0441 2099710302301 B 000 © 00k, OM 065 157221180089 .006 9 000 000-003. ozt_ 087 aR 34S 028 10 000 ©0000). 008. 035), 2B 286100 1 000-000-000, 0OL 0104539268245 12 000.000» .000 000,002,054 179367 13 000 © 000.000.000.000 01.10 (Continued) BTA Appenctic A Tables 09 08 ofa — — 3 SAE Te 7 as 05 ron 9231 pe Poison Motabiities et ae ‘0738-082: Paws swe 802 Poa ts ayy 0030 0037 oy wot 17 002: 2c 000 s Noo 00000000 som yin Dias —— . 1.0 = — Goes ts 4066 3679 Toon RTT TAOS 6709 068 “763595 3659 3679 - am on 1647, 1839 aes ee st owe 0494 0613 0002 .00LL ays 0072 0126 0198 0284 0383 tri aia “o000 001.0003 00070016 sos 077 : r 2 ono7 0012 . “nooo 0000000 opt 00020004 By 0000 0000 0000 0000 pono .0000 001.0002 i ce 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 .0000 0000 ©=— «0000S A xo wa GT 1.8 192.0 0 3m9 301 Suse aaa 20191827 «1653-1496 «1359 136623614 Sg2 gd 3290-3106. «297526422707 2 20.2169 yay 25102584, 2640 2678 2700-2707 3.0738 0867 “281285 1378" 14961607 1710-1804 4.0203 0260 “39s 04710351 .0636 07230812 .0902 SOUS 0062 WOR OIL O14 017602160260 0361 6 0008 0012 0018 0026 0035 0057 00610078 0120 7 0001 00020003 0005. 008.0011 0015 .0020 0034 0000 0000 .0001 0001 0001 0002 0003 0005 .0006 .0009 9 ooo 0000 0000 000.0000 00000001 voD1_—_ova1__.0002 x ul 23.2 252627293. 0.1225 1003. .0907 08210743 0672, 060805500498 12572 290621772082, 1931 ABS «1703-1596 «1494 2 2700-2681 .2652 26132565 251024502384 ABLE 2240 3.1890 196620332090 N76 22052228 2287-2240 40992 10821169 «1254 “MM 148815571622 1680 5 O17 0476 0538 06020668 0735 0304 08720940 1008 G 0146 0174 0206.02 02780319 0362-0107 0455-0504 7 0044 0055 00680083 0099 O11 0139 0163-0188 0216 8 OOIt 0015 0019 0025 001.0038 0047 .0057 0068 .0081 9 0003 0004 0005 0007 0009 0011", 0014 0018 0022 .0027 10.0001 000100010002 0002 0003.00 0005 .0906 0008, 11 0000-0000 .0000 0000 0000 0001. 0001-0001 0002 0002 yo vod .ovv0 000.000.0000 0000 0000 .0001‘The entries in this table probabilities t! random vat (the shaded area). ata standal are the rd normal sic is between Oand Z Pa a en om 208 0.0. .0000 0359 Ot 0398 0438. 0557 4953 02.0793 0832 “oo48 “tat 03.179 217 1331 “517 04.1554 “1591 1700 11879 05 «AMS 219501985 2054 at os = 2257 ‘oor ia 28 ao 07 2580 Sent 26uz 26732704 ae og 2881 Jo10 293929672998 ap) 09 (3159 piss; gaz 32083264 a8 193488 gas ot 8S «3508 362 LE 3683 366s 36s 37083729 3830 12 3849 306338883907 3908 4015 13 4032 A049 4066 4082 4099 ANT ia. 4192 407 aaa AG AIS 19 15 4332 jas ash AaTO SE Aa 16 4452 Sia: daa, aad 4485 ASS 174554 feca 57345821598 4633 is 46a foros GR ASTE 4706 19 A713 ag a6 ATID AT A767 204772 ams 4783 ATS ATSB A8i7 21 4821 ‘ios as30— a8 BSS 4857 22-4861 foot aes S7L ABTS “4890 23.4893 faye, 4898 AO AOE 4916 2a 498 gyi 2 AOEE 2 ARS AMRF 3936 25 4938 agg aga ANB ASH gig, A948 ADD 4952 26 4953 one, AMSG ABE ASD Sogo age. «A962 AES AEE 27. 4965 pee ager A968. OY “yo ag aa7z A973 ATE 284974 foe gs, ST ATT foe 49794979, A980 NF 29 4981 4yen—(9s2 A983 ABH foe, 4985 A885 AGG 486 30. 4987 yosr ass 4988 AEE aoiy dsp, 9g, 9904890 3 8990 ‘onto 9982 oz, doz 992993983 324993 fossa 994 NDE oon, Sod994 49954995 89S 33 4995 ‘os a9 996 A986 wos a996= 4996. A996 A997 344997 for 99749971897 ‘oor 99749974997 998 35-8998 40 49997 45 499997 50 4999997 60 499999999zenese eease ses BRSSet Seuee cseey TH EDITION FORMULAVTABLE CARD FOR WEISS'S INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS. SEVEN Larry R. Grittey tatu we pee Veto clte renee a genes _ Won @ con tae ta j ciara erie re 7 Gu ame Sam eos 20) 3 ear | > Toe 88 | 290 4x 6s oss |? S| URe tes zoo 2d 2 23 am aser sar | | te ters poor > tm ime in ame | 6 S [ves tex pee 3 2013 as ams am | 5 2 | thr ten zo 2 s 198 247 1s a3 | ss | uzar tery rent 28 z ta 3365 = Ha dae 25 130 26 a TS} ter 28 ¥ um 23a ms {Seppo 2082 0 192 228 * tert Root 238 " 17% © 2201 - err rom EO R 172 2am 3 160 n im Me e 180 hast “ Ler 20a a a 173) a ae 6 1746 2120 res 2 130 tno bes in tame Zier dat ti ons 360 20 20m is imo re 2 dove peur n ion yew a dow isu 3 tre ta asm 18H * 17 2638 hoa aan set y tye 308 too 11M dan is toot Sous toe an 3s is tem does tor tea 2482 0 ror 208 tay 16 2007 n tame 3000 hms 1364 106 ny tee 3057 ton 238 de ny ton 30s toa iw “39m i" tot 3a toca Be sen oi re ies DM ie x tes 302s tyes am aie > tes? 3a tar lan ee tae 308 ter an isan » tags 3038 » tse 2502 ; ° tea iim 24a vas 302 2 2 a ie tier 2a dat oat tas E08 = = a tan 3017 3 (aga a ape Ee aa us 2 Ta esteem tee oe reo | o Tae haa faa tan Pam ras tem 20i zen | aaa rd ists 202 zes | 2 imp de pee = 1S dae sss 4