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    Binomial Distributions

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    911223, 800 PM 5 Distributions for Counts and Proportions Primed Page 244(cont)Menu + Hide page numbers 5.1 The Binomial Distribut ‘This page includes Video Technology Manuals Reminder < atogorical vriable, 3 Counts ad proporions are discrete iatstes tha describe categorical data, We focus our discussion on the simplest cae of random variable with only two posible categories. Here isan an example, EXAMPLESS.1 Cola Wate |Ablind taste test of ve dict clas (labeled “A” and “B”) asks 200 randomly chosen consumers which cola was prefered. We would like t view the rsponsce of these consumers as representative of lager poplation of consumers who hold smile preferences. That is, we will view te responses ofthe sampled consumers an SRS from a population ‘When there are only two posible outcomes for a random variable, we can summarize the results by giving the count far ane ofthe possible outcomes. We et» reprotent the sample sie, and we use X to represent he random vrible that gives the count for he outcome of interes EXAMPLE 52 The Random Variable of lerest In our marketing study of consumers, n = 200. We: consumers who prefer cola A. Suppose that we observe X cach consumer in our study whether he or she prefers cola or cola 3. The variable X isthe numberof = 138, our example, we chose the random vacisbleX tobe the numberof consumers who prefer cola A ove cola B, We could have chosen Xta be the number of consumers who prefer cola B over ola A. The choice is yours. Ofte, we make the choice based on how we would like to desctbe the results in a written surmmary. ‘When a random variable hs only two possible outcomes, we can also use the sample proportion J 984 summary. sample proportion EXAMPLE 5.3 The Sample Proportion “The sample proportion of consumers involved inthe taste tet wh prefered cola Ais a8 “a0 =067 cu Notice tha this summary takes iat account the sample size m, We need to know m in order to propery interpret the meaning of the random variable X. For example, the conclusion we would draw about consumer’ preferences would be quite diferent if we had observed X'= 138 from a sample twice as arg, n= 400. Be cared ‘otto diecly compare counts when the sample sizes are differen Instead, divide the cours by ther atocited sample izes allow for dine! comparison Page 245 Apply Your Knowledge Wee PALaNY Question 5.1 5.1 Seniors who waived out ofthe math presque, hitpsdigti-published.macmillanuse.comipsbetalpsbede_ehS_2:him| ans 911223, 800 PM 5 Distributions for Counts and Proportions random sample of 250 business students who ae in or have aken busines statistics, 14% reported tha they had waived ou of taking the math prerequiite for business satisties due to AP calculus credits fom high school. Give n,X, and for his seing 250, 5, B= 10%, Question 5.2 5.2 Using the Item to make wavel reservations, ‘A recent survey of 1351 randomly selected US. residents asked wheter or not they had used the Internet for making wave reservations.” Thee were 1041 people ‘wo answered Yes. The other 310 answered No, 1. Wat isn? 2: Choose ane ofthe two possible outcomes to define the random variable, X. Give a reason for your choice 5, Whats the valu of X? 44 Find the sample proportion, “The binomial dsbutions for sample counts “The distibution of acount X depends om how the data are produced. Here is a simple but common situsion, “The Binomial Seting 1. There are fixed number m of observations 2. Them observation areal independent. That, knowing the reult of one observation lls you nothing about the outeomes of theater observations 3. Each observation falls into one of just two categories, whic, for convenience, we cll "success" and “alae” 44 The probability ofa sucess, call tp, nthe sme foreach observation, ‘Think of tossing coin mimes as an example ofthe binomial setting, Hach toss gives either head o tails, and the outcomes of sucessve tosses ae independent. If swe call heads a sucess, then pis the probability ofa head and remains the same as long as we toss the sre coin. The numberof heads We counts avandom variable Xe The dstsbuson of X, and more generally the distribution ofthe count of sucesss in any inom setting, i completely deternined bythe number of ‘servations mand the secs probably. Binomial Distribution “The distibution of the count X of sucestsin the binomial settings the binomial distetbuton wih parameters n and p. The parameter isthe number of| observations, and pis the probably of success on any one cbscrvaton. The possible valus of X ae the whole numbers from O19 m.AS an abbreviation, we say that X is 8 (np) a “The binomial dstebutions are an important class of discrete probablty distributions. That said, the most important kil for using binomial dsrbutons isthe ability to recognize situations to which they do and don appl This ean be done by checking he Faces ofthe binomial Sting EXAMPLE 54 Binomial Examples? 1 Analysis ofthe 50 yeas of wekly SAP 500 prize change eves ht hey at independent ofeach ter with he probably of pstve pric change being ‘056 Desig assests a ose pris change, eX be he umber of sccsnes ovr he bet Yea, at over te next 52 wesks. Given te indepensnce of wi, a esomable to sue a Xhas the B (52,056) cisebuton 2 Engiees define elias be rout that a er wl perfor its fascion une pie codon foro spe pido ine, Replacement eat valtes made of animal sue, fr example have probability 0.77 of performing wel fr 15 years." The probability of alure within 1S years therefore, 023, {sreasnsble to asume that vals in diferent patent fil (oro independeny of each oer. The numberof patcts ma grup of 500 who will need anh valve plasmon wid IS years ashe B (500, 023) dstibonon 4. Deal 1 aes fom shed decked oun th umber Xo ed cards. Thre are 10 observations, and each gives citer aod o aac can. “sucess isa redcard Butte shsrvaions ae na independent theft cards lack, he seconde mre lil tobe ed becuse ee at ore ects tha lack ‘rds et nthe deck. The count X dos nor havea binomisl dtbation Apply Your Knowledge In each of Eereees 5.3 to 56, Xt a coun. Does X have a binomial dstbution? Ifo, gve the distribution of X. Int give your reatons a to why not Question 53 53 Toss a coin “Toes fi coin 20 mes. Let be the numbsr of heads that you observe hitpsdigf-published.macmillanuse.comipsbetalpsbede_ehS_2:him| ane 911223, 800 PM 5 Distributions for Counts and Proportions sa 4-8 (20,05) Question 8.4 54 Cand desing Define X asthe number of ed cards observed inthe following card éaling scenarios: 1. Deal one cad from a standard 52sard dock 2 Deal one eatd fom standard 52-card deck, record its colo, ret ito the deck, shuffle the cards, Repeat his experiment 10 times Question 55 5.5 Customer satisfaction calls “The service department ofan automabile dealership follows up cach service encounter with a customer satisfaction survey by means ofa phone call. Ona given day, let be the number of customers a service representative has o call uni a customers willing to participate inthe survey ss {snot binomial there is nota fixed numberof wal Question 5.6 5 6 Teaching office software, company uses a computer-based system to teach clerical employees new ofice software. Afters Jesson, the compute presens 10 exeteses. The siden solves each txerit and enter the answer. The computer gives aditionalisaction between exercises ifthe answers wrong. The count X eth numberof exerviaes hat he Student gts righ. Page 247 “The binomial dstbutions for statsicl sampling ‘The binomial dsibutions ar importa! in staisties when we wis to make inferences about the proportion p af “sucess” ina population, Here isan example, (CASE 5.1 Inspecting a Supplier's Produess Pamage [A manufacturing firm purchases components far is products from suppliers. Good practice cals for supplies to manage their production processes to ensure good ‘quai. You can ind some discussion of statistical methods for managing and impoviag quality in Chapice 12. There have, however, boch quit lapses inthe Sothes supplied by a regular vendor, While working withthe supplier to improve process, the mantastring firm tempore insises an aceptance sampling panto asess the quality of shipments of switches, Ia andom sample ffs shipment contains foo many switches tat don't onfors to speciation, the firm wil not accep the shipment. Aguality engince tthe firm chooses an SRS of 150 switches fom a Shipment of 10,00 switches. Suppose that (unknown othe enginer) 8% ofthe switches in the shipment are nonconforming, The cpginer counts the number X of nonconforming switches in the sample Is the count of nonconforming switches inthe sample a binomial random variable? Choosing on SRS from a population ino gute binomial sting Jt 8 removing oe cat in Example $c) changed the makeup of he deck, emoving one Sich changes the proporn ofmaaconforming switchs remaining i the shipment aaa 800 noeoafoming ses, the proprtn romaning is 400 / 9999 = 0.080008 ithe Rt wich ee confonns and 79 / 9999 = 0079908 ibe fist swe fl snpection. Tt, he tao he second ich chosen snot ndcpendsnt a he fest These proportions as close oO. ta, far ravi purpose, we cn acta removing os swe has ot on he fropoton of aaconforming switchs reaning, We as ithe cunt X of onconring swishe inthe sal has he binomial Sstbuon 8 (150, 098) Distribution of Count of Susesss in an SRS A population contains proportion p of successes. If the population s much ager than the sample, the count X of sucesss in an SRS of sizer has approximately the binomial dstsbuion 8 p) “The accuracy ofthis approximation improves asthe sizeof the population increases relative to the sizeof the sample. Asa rule of thumb, we use the binomial station for couns when the population iat est 20 times a Tange asthe sample Finding binomial probabilities Later, we give a formula forthe probability that binomial random variable takes any of ts values. In practice, you will rarely hae 1o use tis formula for aleulations: Some ealevlators and most statistical software packages calculate binomial probabilities. hitpsdigti-published.macmillanuse.comipsbetalpsbede_ehS_2:him| ane 911223, 800 PM 5 Distributions for Counts and Proportions EXAMPLE S$ The Probebility of Noneonforming Switches CCASE 5.1 Tae quality engineer ia Case 5.1 inspects an SRS of 150 switches fom a large shipment of which 8% filo conform to specifications. What isthe probability that exactly 10 switches inthe sample fil inspection? Whats te probability tha the quality engineer finds no more than 10 nonconforming switches? Figure 5.1 shows the oui fom one statistical sofware sytem. You se from the ouput tat he count X har te @ (150, 0.08) dstbution and (x= 10) = 0.106959 P(x 10) = 0.338427 Page 248 as cay o request these calculations inthe software's memus. Typically, the output supplies more decimal ples than we nced and somtimes uses labels that may not be helpful (fr example, “Probably Density Function” whea the distibuin is discret, not continuous). But, as usual with sofware, we can ignore distractions td find he results we need EE] Minitab Probability Density Function Binomial with n = 150 and p = 0.08 x P(K =x) 10 0.106953 Cumulative Distribution Function Binomial with n = 150 and p = 0.08 x P(K 08 2863 374 2073 ss 0223 043 1006 1001 We want to caeulte p(xs1) =P(x=0) #P(x=1) wen has the B (15,08) distribution. To ue Table fr he callin, look opposite m= 15 and under p = 0.08. This arf the tbl pps athe eh. ‘Tye ety opposite cach kx PC = k). Blak ets ne Oo fur decimal paces, so we have nited moto he here. From Table C p(xsi) =P(x=0) +P(x=1) 2863 + 03734 = 0.6597 Page 249 hitpsdigti- published macmillanuse.comipsbetalpsbede_ehS_2:him| ane 911223, 800 PM 5 Distributions for Counts and Proportions FLOYRE 2 Motil hsapram or ebm dbton Wim = 1 and = 008, anole 6 03 02 Probability 01 0.0 0123 45 67 8 9 01:12:13 14:15 Nonconforming switches in sample [Aout two-thirds ofall samples wil contain no more than one nonconforming switch In ft, almost 29% ofthe samples wil contain no bad switches. A sample of size 1S canot be trusted to provide adequate evidence about the prerence of nonconforming erin the population In contrast, or a anmleof size 50, thee i aly 11 5% risk that no bad sich wl be eve in the sarple in ight f the fet ha 8% ofthe population is nonconforming, Calculations such as these can used Lo Assign aceptable acceptance sampling schemes. “The values ofp that appear in Table C areal 0S or smaller. When the probably of a succes is greater than 0.5 restate the problem in terms ofthe umber of failures, The probability of failure less than 0.5 when the probability of success exceeds 0,5. When using the table, always stop to ask wheter you mast count successor flues, EXAMPLE S17 Free Throws Jessica i. basket player who makes 75% of her fee throws aver the course ofa season, Ina Key game, Jessica shoot 12 fee throws and misses five of them, “The fns think that she fled because she wa nervous Te unusual for eaica to perform thie pooty? “To answer this qucston, assume that fc ows ar independent with probability 0.75 of asuces on cach shot (Many studi of long sgucnes of basketball ce ‘tows have ound essetly no evidence at hey are depen, ois i a reasonable asumpion) Beas the probability of making es throw ret han 105, we count misses in order o use Table C. The probably ofa iss is 1~0.75, or 0.25. The amber X of mises 12 attempts has the binomial distribution with ne Tzandp = 025, ‘We wan the proba five or more. Tis is p(xzs) 6) + #P(x= 12) 0.1032 + 09401 + ~~ + 0.0000 = 0.576 Page 250 Jessica will miss five or more out of 12 Ee throws about 16% ofthe ime, While below he average level, her performance in this yame was well within the range of ‘the url chance variation in her shooting Apply Your Knowledge Question 5.7 5:1 ind he probabilities, 1. Suppose tht X has the (7, 0.18) distbution. Unt rie Ct (8 3 man (res) 2. Suppose that Xhas the # (7, 0.85) distribution. Use software or Table Ct find P(X = 7) and P(X 2 5: Explain the relationship betwoen your answers to pars (2) and (b) of this exes so (4) 0.3206, 000122 (0.0015 using Table C). (0.3206, 0.00122 (0.0013 using Table C) (e) They are the same Question 5.8 58 Restaurane survey hitpsdigti-published.macmillanuse.comipsbetalpsbede_ehS_2:him| sine 911223, 800 PM 5 Distributions for Counts and Proportions You operate restaurant. You read ha sample survey bythe National Restaurant Associaton shows that 4% of adults are commited to eating nts food when cating away from home. To help plan your menu, you decide to conduct a sample survey is your own area, You will se random digit dating to contact an SRS of 20, households by telephone | tFthe national result holds i your ae, its easonable wo use the bona disibasion with n seek ntntious food when eating out. Explain wy. 2. Ten ofthe 20 respondents say they are coneermed about nutition. Ts this reason to y 1 40%? To answer this question, we software or Table Ct find the probability tat Xi 10 or larger ip = 0-4 etre, tis probability every small, that is reason to ‘think that p is actualy greater than 04 in your aes 0 and p = 0.4 ta describe the count X of respondents who Question 5.9 5.9 Do our athletes gradute? A university claims that at east 80% ofits basketball players get degrees. To see if there is evidence tothe contrary an investigation examines the fate of 20 players ‘yh entered the program ove a period af several eats ha ened sx yeats ago. Of these payers, 11 graduated andthe remaining nie ate no longer in schoo. Ite tives’ claim is true, the number of players who graduate among the 20 should have th binomial distibution with m= 20 and pat least equal to 0.8. 1. Use sofware or Table Co find he probability that 11 or ls players grad 2. What does the probability you found in pat (2) sugges abou: the university’ 58 (4) 0.01, (6) The claim is ikely fase, Binomial formula ‘Wie can find formula that generates the biaomalprobeilies ftom sftwate or found in Table C. Finding the formula forthe probability tha binomial andora artble takes parila value ensils adding probabites for the diferent way of eling excl thal many’ successes nm observations An example will ude ws Award the formula we want EXAMPLE 58 Determining Consumer Preferences Suppo that mae research shows tha your product i prefered over competion’ product by 25% fal consames I he count of he manber of conser to peer our prodct na gp of Ec consunen, ten X asa hmalditabton wit = & and p= 025, rove the ve consumer aks choices independently, What is the probsbity tha exactly two conser inthe group peter your produc? We ne seeking P(X =2) Page 251 Because the method doesn't depend on the specific example, we will use “S" for success and" product aver the competitors” products, We do the work in two steps. for failure, Her, "8" would stand fora consumer prefering your ‘Step 1. Find the probability that specific two of the five consumers—say, the stand the thd give successes This isthe outcome SESFF. Because consumers ate independent, the multiplication rule for independent events applies. The probability we wants p(sesre) =P (s) P(e) PCs) P(e) 0C#) (025) (075) (025) (075) (075) 025)’ (075)" Step 2. Observe thatthe probsbiity of any ne arrangement oft 8's and thee F' has this seme probability. This is tue because we multiply together 0.25 twiee nnd 0.75 thee times whenever we bave two S's and tree F's. Te probability that X= 2 isthe probability of geting two S's and thee F's ay arangemest whatsoever Here ae all he possible arrangements SSFFF SFSEF SFFSE SEFFS. FSSFF FSFSP FSEFS FFSSE FFSFS FFESS “Tere ae 10 of hem, ll wih the same probaly, The overall probability of two sucess is therefore p(x=2) =10(025)"(075)' = 02637 Approximately 26% ofthe ime, samples of ie independent consumers wil padice exactly wo who prefer your product over competion prods ‘The pater of the calculation in Example 58 works for any binomial probability. To use, we must count the numberof arangemens of successes in 2 servations, We use the following fact oda the counting without actually Ising all the arrangements, Binomial Coefficient ‘The number of ways of aranging k successes among n observations is given bythe binomlalcoefTicient aoe fork=0,1,2 osm “The formula far binomial eoeficients uses the factorial notation. The actor for any positive whole mumnber nis x (nat) x (n=2) xo 3x21 hitpsdigti-published.macmillanuse.comipsbetalpsbede_ehS_2:him| ene 911223, 800 PM 5 Distributions for Counts and Proportions factorial Page 282 Also, 0! = 1. Notice thatthe larger ofthe to fstrial inthe denominator of binomial coefficient wll cancel much ofthe n inthe numerator For example, the binomislcoeTicint we need for Example 588 (@) =m 2 rH (56) @) 2) (0) @G)xG)@) GI (5)4) 20, @ay = This agrees with our previous calculation. ‘renoaion() isnmean erste faction Allway treenberis meng is red itas “inom oem choo" Binomial coins havemany ss in maken, but eae intrested them enya an ato finding bisomilprbabities.The binomial cote ( coun ie number of ways in which k successes can be distributed among m observations. The binomial probability P (X=) is this count multiplied bythe prob Specific arangement ofthe k successes. Hee is the forila we seck ily of any Binomial Probailisy has the binomial dstibution 8 (mp), with m observations and pobsbiltyp of sueces on ech observation the possible values of X ae 0.1.2... fib ay one ofthese Vles the binomial prubabiiy is d= (2 )eta-n* Her tan example ofthe wse ofthe binomial probabiity formula P(x EXAMPLE $9 Inspecting Switches CCASE 5.1 Consider the senso of Example 56 (pages 48-249) in which the umber X of swithes tat fil inspee n= ISandp 0008, mn closely follows the binomial distibuion with 0 (18 } o08)°(os2)" + (#8 )(o0s)' (esa) = GEL) (02863) + 7 (008) (03112) 1) (2) (02868) + (15) (008) (03112) = 02863 +03734 = 0.6597 Page 283 “The calolation uted the facts that 0! ~ 1 and that a = for any number a 0. The result agrees with that obtained fom Table Cin Example 5.6 Apply Your Knowledge Question 5.10 5.10 Lispani representation A factory employs several thousand workers, of whom 30% ace Hispanic. IFthe 10 members ofthe uion executive committe were choke fom the worker at random, the number of Hispanics onthe commie X would bave the biomial distrbusion with n = 10 and p = 03, 1, Use the binomial formula to find P(X = 3). 2. Use the binomial formule o find POX <3) Question 8.11 5.11 Misleading résumés. hitpsdigti-published.macmillanuse.comipsbetalpsbede_ehS_2:him| m6 911223, 800 PM 5 Distributions for Counts and Proportions Beercise 4.27 (page 190) it wa tate that 184% of executive job applicants ed on thee résumés, Suppose an executive job hunter randomly selets ive edsumés fom an exceuive job aplicant pool. Let X be the numberof misleading résumes found i he sample. 1. What are the posible values of X? 2 Use the binomial formula o find the P(X 53. Ure the binomial formule o find the probability ofa est one misleading résumé in the sample sit (a5 = (0,1, 2, 3, 4, 5}. (b) 0.1840. (e) 0.6382. ‘Binomial mean and standard deviation Ifa count X has the B(x, p) distribution, what are the mean jy and te standard deviation 0? We can guess the mean. Ifa basketball player makes 75% of her fee ‘tows the mea number made in 12 wes should be 75% of 12,09. That's when X asthe B (12, 0.75) distbuon. Intuition suggests more generally that the mean ofthe B (np) dstbuton shouldbe mp. Can we show tht this is correct and also obiain a short formula forthe standard devition? Because binomial distributions are discrete probabity distibuions, we could find he mean and venance by using the binomial probabilities slong with general formula for computing the mean and Variance given in Seton 45, Bu, there isan easier wa ‘Abinomial random variable Xi the count of sucess inn independent observations that cach have the same probability p of succes. Let the ram viable 5, indicate wnether the th observation isa suovess or fire by taking the values § = 1 fa success occurs and = Oxf the outcome is fare, The, are independent becuse the observations are, and each 5 asthe same simple dsibution Outcome = 1 Probability =p =p From the defnition of the mean ofa discrete random variable, we know hat the mean of each is (1) (p) + (0) (1-p) Reminder < mean and vatance ofa discrete random variable, pp 235-236 Hs Page 288 Similan the definition ofthe variance shows that a the 5's (1—p) Because each 6 | for sucess and 0 for failure, 0 fnd the al number of successes we KaS ASH 45, Reminder < rules for means, 2.226 Apply the addition rules for means and variances to this sum, To ind the metn of X we add the means ofthe $s Me Similar the variance sn times the variance of single So that of = np (1 —p). The standard deviation a isthe square root ofthe variance Here isthe esl Binomial Mean and Standard Deviation acount x bas the binomial distebution Bn, p) then eam orm freer EXAMPLE 510 Inspecting Switches CASE 5.1 Continuing Case 5.1 (page 247), the count X of nonconforming switches is binomial with binomial distribution are 50 and p = 0.08, The mean and standard deviation of this hitpsdigti-published.macmillanuse.comipsbetalpsbede_ehS_2:him| ane 971223, 800 PM 5 Distributions for Counts and Proportions te =n = (150) (008) = 12 Es elmer 150) (ame) (Ose) = yTTR = 3.8226 Apply Your Knowledge Question 5.12 5.12 Hispani represenation. Refer tothe seting of Exercise 5.10 (page 253) 1. What isthe mean numberof Hispanics on randomly chosen committees of 10 workers? 2! What ithe saadard deviation of the count X of Hispane members? 5. Suppose now that 10% ofthe facory workers were Hispanic. Then p = 0.1. What sin this case? What is 0p = 0.01? What does your work show about ‘the behavior ofthe standard deviation ofa binomial distibution a the probably ofa sucess gts close to 0? Question 5.13 5.13 Do our atletee grate? Refer tothe sting of Exerise 59 (page 250). | Find the mean number of graduates ou of 20 players iF 80% of payers graduate 2 Find the standard devition ofthe count Xi 80% of players graduate 5. Suppose now thal the 20 payers eame from a population of which p = 0.9 rakated. What the standard deviation oof the eount of graduates? Ip = 0.99, ‘what is 2? What des your work show about the behavior ofthe standard doviaton of binomial dstrbuton este probability p of sugsees gts close to |? 513 342, oy = 0.45, As p gets closer to I, the standard deviation gts smal 6) By = 16. 0) or = 1789. (0 64 Page 255 Sample proportions ‘What proportion ofa company’s sles records havea incomes sales ax classification? What percent of adults favor stronger laws resting firearms? Instat] sampling, we often want estimate the proportion p of “succeses” in population. Our estimators the sample proportion of euocesser count of suecesses in sample ‘sie of sample x voporion cu Be sure to distinguish between the proportion andthe count X. Te coun takes whole-namber values anywhere nthe range from 040, but «proportion i always 2 ‘number inthe range of 016 I Inthe binomial setng, the count X has @ binomial disteibtion, The proportion does wot have a binomial distbution. We en, however, do probability calculations about by restating them in terms of the count X and sing binomial methods. EXAMPLE SS.11 Socal Media Purchasing Infsnce tough many companies ran agressive marketing campaigns on social mea, a Gallup survey reveals that 62% ofall U.S. respondents say Twiter and Facebook, ‘mong other sites, donot have any influence on their decisions to purchase products. twas also reported, however, that baby boomers were lesley to be influenced than younger respondents. You decide to ‘ake «nationwide andor sample of 2500 college udsuts and ask they agree or dsagree tha “Social me ‘vertising nflences my purchasing decisions” Suppove thal it were the cave thal 5% of al cllege sodents would dagree asked this question In ther words, 5% ofall college stadents fs! that sooial media as ho infuenes on thee purchasing decisions. What isthe probability thatthe sample proportion who fea hat, social media has no inflience is no greater than 47%? “The cust X of college tents who fel noises ha the binomial dstibuionB (2500, 045). Te sample proportion = X 2500 does no have a binomit

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