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Borsa Istanbul Review 19-2 (2019) 132e138
http://www.elsevier.com/journals/borsa-istanbul-review/2214-8450

Full Length Article

Risk, return and portfolio optimization for various industries in the ASEAN
region
Duc Hong Vo a,*, Thach Ngoc Pham a, Trung Thanh Vu Pham b, Loc Minh Truong c,
Thang Cong Nguyen a
a
Business and Economics Research Group, Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Viet Nam
b
Curtin University, Australia
c
Vietnam-the Netherlands Economics Program, Viet Nam
Received 20 May 2018; revised 27 September 2018; accepted 28 September 2018
Available online 3 October 2018

Abstract

This paper examines risk, return and portfolio diversification at the industry level in four member countries of the ASEAN for which required
data are available: Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. Market indices are examined for 10 industries from 2007 to 2016, comprising
different economic periods, including 2007e2009 (crisis), 2010e2012 (post-crisis), and 2013e2016 (normal). Conditional value at risk is used
to measure extreme risk. The Markowitz's risk-return framework is utilized to determine the optimal weight of industries in the portfolio.
Findings suggest that, overall, the health-care industry should be given priority and importance as a sector with a dominant role in Vietnam, as
this sector experiences the lowest extreme risk, earns the highest returns, and has become the second-largest contributor to the portfolio, which
includes all sectors of the economy. Similar findings emerge for Singapore and Malaysia. However, in Thailand the industry in first place is
consumer services.
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Copyright © 2018, Borsa Istanbul Anonim Şirketi. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-
ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

JEL code: G11; G12; G15


Keywords: ASEAN; CVaR; Portfolio optimization; Returns; Risks

1. Introduction an answer to the vital question of how investors should allo-


cate their funds among assets to generate an efficient portfolio.
Academic studies related to risks and returns at the industry Generally, after quantifying risks and returns, the theory sug-
level generally provide useful information for many stake- gests that investors consider various combinations on the basis
holders. In particular, the information could help bankers to of the risk-return trade-off. In previous studies on the issue, the
establish appropriate lending and borrowing strategies and standard deviation or variance is used to measure risk.
investors to determine the risk premium and corresponding Among several other risk measures that have been devel-
returns for each industry. This information also supports policy oped, value at risk (VaR) has become one of the most common
makers in employing timely policies for industrial growth. financial risk measurements since its introduction by Risk-
Among the most fundamental risk-return models, the theory of Metrics and practical adoption by the Basel Committee. VaR
portfolio selection developed by Markowitz (1952) provides measures the expected maximum loss of an asset/portfolio that
may be incurred at a specified threshold a for a selected time
horizon t. However, some limitations of VaR are pointed out in
* Corresponding author. previous studies. For example, Artzner, Delbaen, Eber, and
E-mail address: duc.vhong@ou.edu.vn (D.H. Vo). Heath (1999) and Embrechts, Resnick, and Samorodnitsky
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Peer review under responsibility of Borsa Istanbul Anonim Şirketi.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2018.09.003
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2214-8450/Copyright © 2018, Borsa Istanbul Anonim Şirketi. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND
license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
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D.H. Vo et al. / Borsa Istanbul Review 19-2 (2019) 132e138 133

(1999) argue that VaR is not a coherent risk measure because it Another research stream examines portfolio selection using
does not satisfy the sub-additivity property. In addition, when the VaR framework (Al Janabi, 2014; G. J.; Alexander &
VaR is applied in the minimization function of a portfolio, the Baptista, 2002; Campbell, Huisman, & Koedijk, 2001; Chen
results can generate multiple local minimizers (Rockafellar & & Yu, 2013). In particular, Campbell et al. (2001) develop a
Uryasev, 2002). Also, the losses beyond the threshold cannot model that maximizes the expected return given the downside
be captured by a VaR measure (Choudhry & Wong, 2013; risk, measured by VaR, and applied to US stocks and bonds.
Yamai & Yoshiba, 2005). They show that when the expected returns follow a normal
An alternative measure of VaR, conditional value at risk distribution, the mean-variance and mean-VaR approaches
(CVaR), is derived and has proved to be a coherent market risk yielded almost identical results. Also, the effects of a non-
with desirable properties (Acerbi & Tasche, 2002; Pflug, normal distribution of returns and the length of the invest-
2000). For a given threshold a and a selected time horizon t, ment period on portfolio optimization are also highlighted.
CVaR is the conditional expected losses that exceed VaR. Both The economic implications of using the mean-VaR framework
VaR and CVaR have attracted much attention from academics, is examined by Alexander and Baptista (2002), and their re-
who have applied it widely in many research areas, including sults suggest that the optimal portfolio may contain a higher
commodity markets (Powell, Vo, & Pham, 2018; Powell, Vo, standard deviation if VaR is used to measure risk. Given the
Pham, & Singh, 2017), stock markets (Gencay & Selcuk, heavy tail distribution of market risk factors, Chen and Yu
2004; Mensi, Shahzad, Hammoudeh, Zeitun, & Rehman, (2013) propose a nonlinear model to compute and compare
2017), oil markets (Marimoutou, Raggad, & Trabelsi, 2009), the VaR values of an option portfolio. Results from various
and derivatives markets (Barone Adesi, 2016; Chang, methods show that risk factors with a multivariate mixture of
Jimenez-Martín, McAleer, & Perez-Amaral, 2011). Another normal distribution tend to generate a more accurate VaR.
stream of research related to CVaR focuses on incorporating Some literature studies the application of CVaR in portfolio
CVaR as a risk measure in the objective function of portfolio optimization. Alexander et al. (2006) examine 196 derivative
optimization (Alexander, Coleman, & Li, 2006; Lim, instruments in European options, including vanilla calls, va-
Shanthikumar, & Vahn, 2011; Rockafellar & Uryasev, 2000, nilla puts, binary calls, and binary puts. Results of a Monte
2002). Carlo simulation illustrate that minimizing VaR and CVaR for
The objective of this paper is to examine risk, returns, and derivatives portfolios could lead to infinite outcomes if the
portfolio optimization, with the application of CVaR at the deltaegamma approximations are used to calculate derivative
industry level in the context of member countries of the As- values. Other methods, including analytic formulas, numerical
sociation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over different partial differential equations, or Monte Carlo methods, also
periods. Because the capital market in ASEAN is increasingly generate many portfolio solutions with a similar CVaR/VaR.
integrated, this study explores two research questions. First, Allen, Kramadibrata, Powell, and Singh (2012) investigate the
are the relative rankings of risk, returns, and the contribution application of CVaR to the global mining industry with a
of industries in the portfolio similar among ASEAN countries? sample of seven key markets: Australia, Canada, China,
Second, did these sectoral relative rankings change during the Russia, South Africa, South America, and the US. Using data
global financial crisis (GFC), the post-GFC, and the non-crisis on ten years of daily prices in 161 companies, the study uses a
periods? historical approach at the 95 percent confidence level to
Following this Introduction, this paper is structured as calculate CVaR. Data are divided into two separate period-
follows. Section 2 briefly discusses theories related to portfolio sdlow volatility (2000e2006) and high volatility
selection as well as selected previous academic studies on the (2007e2009)dto explore the effect of the global financial
topic. Section 3 presents the research methodology, including crisis (GFC). Findings in this study demonstrate that the
a measurement of risks, returns, ranking strategy, and neces- optimal weightings of individual markets change over
sary data for the analysis. Section 4 discusses our empirical different research periods. In addition, the results obtained
findings, followed by concluding remarks in Section 5. using the CVaR as optimizer are different from those obtained
through the traditional mean-variance approach.
2. Literature review In the context of portfolio optimization using a mean-CVaR
framework, Allen and Powell (2011) and Akyuwen, Boffey,
Since the introduction of modern portfolio theory by Powell, and Wijaya (2017) focus their studies on relative in-
Markowitz (1952), several studies have been conducted to dustrial risk in Australia and Indonesia, respectively, across
apply and improve the theory. In relation to portfolio selection, various economic circumstances. In the context of Australia,
Do, Bhatti, and Konya (2016) show that various methodolo- Allen and Powell (2011) use VaR and CVaR to measure
gies have been used, such as the intertemporal capital asset extreme risk and conduct optimization over two different pe-
pricing model (Merton, 1973), dynamic mean-variance models riods, before and during the GFC. The variance-covariance (or
(Grubel, 1968), the security market line benchmark (Mayers & parametric) approach is applied to calculate VaR and CVaR. In
Rice, 1979), incorporating Bayesian framework into an asset addition, their nonparametric testing includes Spearman rank
pricing model (Pastor, 2000), a vector autoregressive model correlation, and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to confirm the
(Barberis, 2000), and an autoregressive integrated moving association between relative risk rankings across research
average model (Hui, 2005). periods. Findings from this study indicate changes in relative
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D.H. Vo et al. / Borsa Istanbul Review 19-2 (2019) 132e138

sectoral risk before and during the GFC. Also, the optimal the parametric method and the historical method. For the
outcomes of industries indicate some differences when CVaR parametric method, assuming that assets' returns follow a
is used in comparison to VaR. They find no association be- normal distribution, VaR is obtained by multiplying the stan-
tween the two periods. Using a dataset for the 2004e2011 dard deviation of returns by the relevant confidence factor
period, together with 217 stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock (e.g., 1.645 for the 95 percent and 2.33 for the 99 percent
Exchange, Akyuwen et al. (2017) conclude that, although confidence level). VaR from the historical approach is the
consumer discretionary spending and consumer staples have return at the selected confidence level with returns sorted in
similarities in terms of optimal weights over various periods, ascending order from highest to lowest (e.g., VaR 95 percent is
other industries, such as agriculture and diversified financials, the 95th worst return). Because a stock may experience a fat
have differences. Moreover, the historical and parametric ap- tail distribution during the GFC, this study uses the historical
proaches used to measure VaR and CVaR have the similar approach to calculate CVaR, as in recent prior studies (Allen
outcomes. However, in contrast to findings by Allen and et al., 2012; Powell et al., 2017, 2018). Accordingly, histori-
Powell (2011), the optimal results obtained from VaR and cal CVaR 95 percent is the average of 5 percent returns that
CVaR show some similarities. exceed VaR 95 percent.
From a different angle, Basak and Shapiro (2001) analyze
optimal, dynamic portfolios and wealth/consumption policies 3.2.3. Optimization
of utility-maximizing investors, who must also manage their Portfolio optimization was first developed by Markowitz
exposure to market risk using VaR. Findings from this study (1952) in modern portfolio theory. The theory presents the
indicate that VaR risk managers often optimally choose a efficient frontier, which illustrates various combinations of
larger exposure to risky assets than non-risk managers. As a maximum portfolio return given each level of risk, or mini-
consequence, these VaR risk managers incur larger losses mum portfolio risk for each return level. With variance (or
when losses occur. standard deviation) as a risk measure, portfolio returns and
In a similar manner, Jang and Park (2016) incorporate a risk are calculated after taking into account the correlation
VaR constraint on a fund manager's wealth and ambiguity. between assets' returns. On the basis of the variance-return
Their study employs a model of optimal portfolio choice for framework, the optimization process is obtained by changing
fund managers who allocate wealth between high-risk and combinations of assets with the objective function to maxi-
low-risk assets. Findings from this study indicate that when a mize the portfolio returns or to minimize the portfolio risk.
fund manager controls asset composition, her reactions differ The minimization objective is described as follows:
with respect to an increase in only risk aversion and only
X
n X
n
ambiguity aversion. min si;k xi xk ð1Þ
i¼1 k¼1
3. Methodology and data
Subject to:
3.1. Data X
n
xi ¼ 1 ð2Þ
Our data come from Datastream, including daily indices on i¼1
ten industries for each country: basic materials, consumer
goods, consumer services, finance, health care, industry, oil X
n
ri xi ¼ rp ð3Þ
and gas, technology, telecommunications, and utilities. The i¼1
research period is 2007e2016. Because this period includes
the GFC, it is also divided into subperiods: during the crisis 0  xi ; i ¼ 1; 2; …; n ð4Þ
(2007e2009), after the crisis (2010e2012), and the non-crisis
period (2013e2016). where xi are asset weights, ri is the assets' rate of return, and
si;k is the covariance between returns on assets i and k. Total
3.2. Methodology weights of assets are 100 percent while the weight for any
individual asset cannot be negative, and the weighted average
3.2.1. Returns expected return of the portfolio equals a predetermined level
For each industry, returns are measured by the average of rp .
all daily log returns for each year of the period researched. In this paper, 10 industries are used to form the market
portfolio for a country. CVaR is used as a risk measure to form
3.2.2. Risk the CVaR-return framework, rather than the variance-return or
In this study, risk is measured using CVaR to capture the VaR-return frontiers. Allen and Powell (2011) consider that if
extreme risk of the distribution, rather than standard deviation returns follow a normal distribution, the VaR-return and the
or VaR. By definition, CVaR is conditional expected losses variance-return frameworks provide similar optimal outcomes
that exceed VaR. In other words, CVaR is calculated by the because VaR is derived from the variance. However, CVaR
average of the return beyond VaR. The two most common considers the actual losses beyond VaR and as such forms a
methods to calculate VaR, and the corresponding CVaR, are different optimal combination of assets than the variance-
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D.H. Vo et al. / Borsa Istanbul Review 19-2 (2019) 132e138 135

return framework. Accordingly, CVaR is applied to calculate a Table 2


variance-covariance matrix to account for the correlation be- Average CVaR for each sector in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore,
2007e2016, in percent.
tween assets. The CVaR-return efficient frontier is obtained by
minimizing CVaR at a selected level of returns, or: Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Singapore

Xn Basic Materials 2.97 (4) 4.43 (10) 2.33 (9) 5.88 (10)
min CVaRðxÞ; ri x i  rp ð5Þ Consumer Goods 2.64 (2) 3.69 (5) 1.33 (2) 1.86 (3)
i¼1 Consumer Services 3.13 (7) 2.97 (2) 1.92 (5) 1.61 (2)
Financials 3.00 (5) 3.43 (4) 1.28 (1) 1.40 (1)
Healthcare 2.59 (1) 3.82 (6) 0.02 (8) 1.88 (4)
4. Results Industrials 3.53 (8) 3.19 (3) 1.50 (3) 2.32 (6)
Oil & Gas 4.01 (9) 4.29 (9) 1.96 (6) 2.92 (8)
4.1. Return, risk, and optimization Technology 5.01 (10) 3.93 (7) 5.30 (10) 4.80 (9)
Telecoms 3.06 (6) 4.08 (8) 1.55 (4) 2.26 (5)
Utilities 2.78 (3) 2.76 (1) 1.99 (7) 2.89 (7)
Estimated returns and risk, proxied by CVaR, for each in-
dustry over the period from 2007 to 2016 are presented in Max 5.01 4.43 5.30 5.88
Mean 3.27 3.66 2.14 2.78
Tables 1e3. Min 2.59 2.76 1.28 1.40
Table 1 shows differences in both absolute returns and
Note: Values in parentheses are the relative ranking of industries within a
relative rankings of industries across the four countries. First, country.
the average returns for all industries in Vietnam and Singapore
are negative (0.05 percent and 0.01 percent, respectively)
but positive in Thailand and Malaysia (0.03 percent and 0.04 Table 3
Average weight for each sector in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and
percent, respectively). Second, in Vietnam and Thailand the Singapore, 2007e2016, in percent.
health-care sector has the largest returns whereas in Malaysia
Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Singapore
and Singapore the technology sector attracts the highest
returns. In addition, basic materials have the lowest returns in Basic Materials 12.33 (4) 0.07 (10) 1.92 (9) 18.68 (3)
Consumer Goods 16.51 (3) 10.13 (4) 12.79 (3) 9.35 (4)
both Vietnam and Thailand. In Malaysia, industry has the
Consumer Services 7.55 (6) 27.38 (1) 0.00 (10) 0.76 (7)
lowest returns, whereas in Singapore is the industry with the
Financials 0.00 (8) 5.08 (7) 4.49 (7) 7.92 (5)
lowest return is oil and gas.
Healthcare 20.58 (2) 18.84 (2) 25.46 (1) 33.00 (1)
Estimated risks, measured by CVaR, are listed in Table 2. Industrials 0.00 (8) 9.64 (6) 2.65 (8) 0.54 (8)
At the overall level, differences between countries exist in Oil & Gas 0.00 (10) 3.88 (8) 9.98 (6) 0.00 (9)
relation to the relative risk rankings. In Vietnam, the health- Technology 26.96 (1) 13.80 (3) 12.05 (5) 24.29 (2)
care sector appears to be the best industry, with the lowest Telecoms 9.14 (5) 1.22 (9) 17.90 (2) 5.45 (6)
CVaR (lowest risk). In Thailand, the industry with the lowest Utilities 6.92 (7) 9.96 (5) 12.76 (4) 0.00 (9)
risk is utilities. Finance is the safest sector in Malaysia and Max 26.96 27.38 25.46 33.00
Singapore. In addition, the lowest CVaR estimates in Vietnam Mean 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
and Thailand, at 2.59 percent and 2.76 percent, respectively, Min 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00
are approximately double their counterparts in Malaysia and Note: Values in parentheses represent the relative ranking of industries within
Singapore, at 1.28 percent and 1.40 percent. country.

Table 1
Fig. 1aed illustrate the relationship between extreme risk,
Average daily returns for each sector in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and
Singapore, 2007e2016, in percent. as measured by CVaR, and returns in all 10 industries for each
country in the sample. Overall, it appears that the relationship
Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Singapore
between extreme risk and returns is not consistent across the
Basic Materials 0.29 (10) 0.01 (10) 0.06 (3) 0.02 (2)
four countries. In Vietnam, the correlation coefficient is
Consumer Goods 0.02 (4) 0.04 (3) 0.01 (8) 0.00 (5)
Consumer Services 0.00 (5) 0.06 (2) 0.01 (9) 0.02 (8) 0.0298, with a corresponding R2 of almost zero, which
Financials 0.03 (7) 0.03 (6) 0.01 (7) 0.01 (6) suggests that risks and returns have no relation. This finding
Healthcare 0.03 (1) 0.07 (1) 0.06 (2) 0.01 (3) may imply that the Vietnamese financial market is not yet
Industrials 0.13 (9) 0.03 (5) 0.00 (10) 0.01 (7) mature. As a result, investors appear to take any investment
Oil & Gas 0.12 (8) 0.02 (9) 0.03 (4) 0.08 (10) opportunities available, rather than making a serious exami-
Technology 0.03 (2) 0.03 (4) 0.12 (1) 0.03 (1) nation of risk-return correlation. This view is confirmed by the
Telecoms 0.03 (6) 0.03 (7) 0.03 (5) 0.00 (4) findings in other ASEAN markets, which appear to be more
Utilities 0.02 (3) 0.03 (8) 0.02 (6) 0.06 (9) developed than the Vietnamese market. In Thailand and
Max 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.03 Singapore, the estimated coefficients imply moderate out-
Mean 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.01 comes, with a negative correlation in Thailand (4 ¼ 0.4473),
Min 0.29 0.01 0.00 0.08
and a positive association in Singapore (4 ¼ 0.3036). The
Note: Values in parentheses are the relative ranking of industries within a corresponding R2 values are 0.2001 and 0.0921, respectively.
country. 1 is the highest ranking (the highest return) and 10 is the lowest
ranking (return).
The strongest association (4 ¼ 0.9200) between risks and
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D.H. Vo et al. / Borsa Istanbul Review 19-2 (2019) 132e138

Fig. 1. Correlation between risks and returns.

returns is found in Malaysia. Findings on the relation between Singapore have the same dominant industry as the winner:
risks and returns appear to be similar when standard error, health care. Singapore appears to provide the most advanced
rather than CVaR, is used to measure risk (see Figure S1, services among ASEAN countries and is an attractive desti-
available online). nation for health-care services for residents of other Asian
The study now considers the optimal weight for each in- countries. Vietnam is an emerging market for health care. With
dustry in the four countries. Table 3 presents the findings. The a population of almost 100 million and rising income levels
technology sector contributes the most to the market portfolio over the past 10 years, Vietnam offers health-care services that
in Vietnam, with a weight of 26.96 percent. In Thailand, the attract huge demand among its own people. As a result, in-
highest contribution is from consumer services, with a weight vestment in health care has increased significantly. Wealthy
of 27.38 percent. Albeit at different levels of contribution, Vietnamese families can now afford to use advanced health-
health care is the greatest contributor to the overall market care services provided locally. These observations explain
portfolio in Malaysia and Singapore. why the sector has lower risk (due to stable demand), higher
Now, we examine the best industry in relation to the returns (due to increased demand) and greater investment
combination of risk, returns, and weight in the four ASEAN weight (due to the attractiveness of the sector). In Thailand,
countries. The final ranking of the sector in each country is consumer services are the winner. In Malaysia, telecommu-
based on the ranking of risk, returns, and optimal weight. The nications are also in first place, along with health care.
results are presented in Table 4. Vietnam, Malaysia, and
4.2. Subperiod results
Table 4
Combination of risk, returns, and weight.
We now examine the best industry in each country, broken
down by subperiod: the GFC period (2007e2009), the post-
Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Singapore
GFC period (2010e2012), and a normal period
Basic Materials 6.0 (6) 10.0 (10) 7.0 (8) 5.0 (5) (2013e2016) (see Table S1, Table S2, and Table S3, available
Consumer Goods 3.0 (2) 4.0 (3) 4.3 (3) 4.0 (2)
online). Consumer services are the best-performing sector in
Consumer Services 6.0 (6) 1.7 (1) 8.0 (10) 5.7 (7)
Thailand, a finding that is consistent over the three periods
Financials 6.7 (8) 5.7 (7) 5.0 (4) 4.0 (2)
considered (see Table S4, available online). However, in
Healthcare 1.3 (1) 3.0 (2) 3.7 (1) 2.7 (1)
Vietnam and Malaysia, the sectoral winner changes across
Industrials 8.3 (9) 4.7 (4) 7.0 (8) 7.0 (8)
Oil & Gas 9.0 (10) 8.7 (9) 5.3 (5) 9.0 (10) these periods. In Vietnam, the industry in first place switches
Technology 4.3 (3) 4.7 (4) 5.3 (5) 4.0 (2) from health care in the post-crisis period to basic materials in
Telecoms 5.7 (5) 8.0 (8) 3.7 (1) 5.0 (5) the non-crisis (normal) period. In Malaysia, telecommunica-
Utilities 4.3 (3) 4.7 (4) 5.7 (7) 8.3 (9) tions come in first during the post-crisis period, but health care
Note: Values in parentheses represent the relative ranking of industries within plays the dominant role in the non-crisis period. Singapore
country.
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D.H. Vo et al. / Borsa Istanbul Review 19-2 (2019) 132e138 137

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