Confidence Intervals For MTBF

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by Fred Schenkelberg — 8 Comments
Confidence Intervals for MTBF

EDITED BY JOHN HEALY
As with other point estimates, we often want to calculate the

confidence interval about the estimate. The intent is to
determine the range of reasonable values for the true and
unknown population parameter. For MTBF, this no different.
Keep in mind that when calculating MTBF, we are using the

time to failure data that is often censored in some manner. For example, if we
have 100 systems operating and have experienced only 12 failures, the bulk of
the systems have never failed.
The discussion here is for either an exponential distribution based point

estimate of the θ parameter or for a homogeneous Poisson process (HPP). If
the system is best described by a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP),
then the confidence intervals described below are not appropriate as the
intervals well depend on the specific NHPP model.
When conducting a test to estimate MTBF, we may run the systems in the test
for a specific amount of time, or until we experience some number of failures.
When the data ends at a point in time that does not correspond to a time of
failure, the data is said to be time censored. If the ending time corresponds
with a failure, then we have failure censoring.
https://accendoreliability.com/confidence-intervals-for-mtbf/ 1/11
I bring up the nature of the censoring as it changes the formula for the
confidence interval for the MTBF estimate.
χ2 Distribution
MTBF is commonly associated with the exponential distribution, so when
either assuming or deliberately using the exponential distribution and the
statistic MTBF the confidence intervals are described in part by the χ2
distribution.
Keep in mind that the chi-squared distribution is not symmetrical, like the
normal or t distributions, thus we need to find the appropriate lower and/or
upper χ2 value to complete the calculation.
It also means the confidence intervals are likely not symmetrical either.
Lower Confidence Limit for Type I Censoring

Type I censoring is time terminated. For example, when the data collection
period ends, say at 2,000 hours, there was not a failure at 2,000 hours. Lower
confidence is often of interest as it indicates the lower range of the MTBF
value, or how bad might the true result actually be.
The formula for the Type I lower confidence interval is
2T
θ ≥
2
χ
(α,2r+2)
Where,
θ is the calculated mean life (MTBF)

T is the total time the samples operated before failing (or the test was
ended)
χ2 is the Chi-squared distribution
α is the level of risk (1 – confidence)
r is the number of failures, 2r+2 is then the degrees of freedom for the χ2
distribution table
Lower Confidence Limit for Type II Censoring

In this case, the censoring is failure based, meaning the test ended with a
failure. The lower value is
2T
θ ≥
2
χ
(α,2r)
Note the small change in the calculation of the degrees of freedom.
Two Sided Confidence Interval Formulas

Again the censoring matters. For time censored data or Type I the equations
are
2T 2T
≤ θ ≤
2 2
χ χ
α α
( ,2r+2) (1− ,2r)
2 2
The 2r+2 degrees of freedom is only for the lower bound.
For the Type II or failure censored data the equations are
2T 2T
≤ θ ≤
2 2
χ χ
α α
( ,2r) (1− ,2r)
2 2
Again the lower bound does not have the extra two degrees of freedom. The
key when calculating these confidence intervals is to know if the data is time or
failure censored, then use the correct formula for degrees of freedom.
You may also be interested in how setting the confidence level alters the result.
You may see data sheets reporting MTBF with a 60% confidence, well what
does the mean? See the article Lower Confidence for more information.
Related:
Reliability with confidence (article)
Laplace’s Trend Test (article)
Confidence Limits (article)
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Filed Under: Articles, CRE Preparation Notes, Probability and Statistics for Reliability Tagged
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About Fred Schenkelberg

I am the reliability expert at FMS Reliability, a reliability engineering and
management consulting firm I founded in 2004. I left Hewlett Packard (HP)’s
Reliability Team, where I helped create a culture of reliability across the corporation, to assist
other organizations.
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Comments
N.Chaitanya Kumar reddy says

August 18, 2015 at 5:30 AM
Hi sir, thanks for sharing.
Reply
Hilaire Perera says

May 18, 2020 at 7:16 AM
When components in a system have constant Failure Rates, Mean Time

Between Failure (MTBF) of the system can be used to (represent) calculate
Reliability at any time within the Useful Life period
The mean life function (often denoted as “MTBF”) is not a good

measurement when used as the sole reliability metric. Instead, the use of a
reliability value with an associated time, along with an associated
confidence level, is a more versatile and powerful metric for describing a
product’s reliability
For people who are unable to establish a Failure/Time distribution to

calculate reliability of their product, the easiest way to track Reliability is
to use MTTF(MTBF) periodically. “Single Point” calculations are not
suitable for warranty, spares allocation, etc. Should calculate the
MTTF(MTBF) number at a Confidence Level.
Confidence limits for the mean are an interval estimate for the mean.
Interval estimates are often desirable because the estimate of the mean
varies from sample to sample. Instead of a single estimate for the mean, a
confidence interval generates a lower and upper limit for the mean. The
interval estimate gives an indication of how much uncertainty there is in
our estimate of the true mean. The narrower the interval, the more precise
is our estimate.
Reply
Larry George says

June 9, 2020 at 2:35 PM
Incredible MTBF Prediction Confidence Intervals

Use Credible Reliability Predictions
Has anyone ever asked you for a confidence interval on an MTBF
prediction? You won’t find anything in MIL-HDBK-217 or Telcordia SR332.
How confident can one be about a prediction? It’s not a legitimate
statistical question, that uses a random sample of life data to estimate the
mean (MTBF) and quantify the sample uncertainty around the mean
based on the sample distribution of the mean.
“Credible Reliability Prediction” (former ASQ RD monograph) shows how
to make credible reliability predictions based on observed field reliability of
older, related products, by adjusting failure rate functions assuming
proportional hazards scaled by ratio(s) of MTBF(old)/MTBF(new). This is

based on the observations that the failure rates of generations of products
resemble each other because some reliability don’t change: e.g.,
processes, shipment, installation, environments, training, and customers.
What if you don’t have life data: times to failures perhaps censored?
Oscarsson and Halberg used least squares to estimate nonparametric
reliability functions for Ericsson electronics using ships and returns
counts. Harris and Rattner used least squares to estimate nonparametric
survival functions for Virginia HIV+ and AIDS case counts. I use maximum
likelihood and least squares to do both, currently of corona-virus using
case, death, and recovery counts. Life data is sufficient but not necessary,
and it is required by GAAP.
Last week I programmed bootstrap confidence bands on corona-virus
survival function estimates, for the sake of forecasting using transient
Markov SIR model. It occurred to me that the bootstrap could also be used
to quantify uncertainty in MTBF predictions; I call them Incredible MTBF
Prediction Confidence Intervals.
The incredible MTBF prediction is the integral of R(t)dt, where the
integration extends from t = 0 to t-value for which R(t) = 0.0. (This can be
proved by integration by parts. I’ve done it.) The incredible MTBF
prediction is the sum of (R(t) for t=0,1,2,… where R(t) is the credible
reliability prediction according to the monograph.
Lest you think statistical confidence intervals on MTBF predictions are
impossible, because there is no sample life data, I admit some decree of
skepticism is warranted. Typically, field reliability functions don’t extend
from 1.0 to 0.0; they should extend past warranty, perhaps to end of useful
or support life, hopefully to old-age reliability somewhat greater than 0.0.
So I extrapolate them, using the FORECAST.ETS() excel function and
exponential smoothing extrapolation.
When you want an Incredible MTBF Prediction Confidence Interval for a
new product, let me know. I will need field reliability data on older, related
product(s) and MTBF predictions for the old and new product(s). I can
provide MTBF prediction workbooks or read Credible Reliability
Prediction, https://sites.google.com/site/fieldreliability/credible-
reliability-prediction.
Reply
Larry George says

August 24, 2021 at 12:08 PM
It wasn’t obvious to me that the formula for LCL should be

CHISQ.INV(alpha,2r+2) in denominator instead of CHISQ.DIST(t,
alpha,2r+2)! If you want a demo spreadsheet, let me know.
Reply
Larry George says

October 2, 2022 at 2:49 PM
Technically, the chi-square confidence limits on MTBF are approximations

to gamma confidence limits. This is because, for TTT = total time on test,
Poisson probability P{N(TTT) TTT] where T1, T2,…,Tn are iid exponentially
distributed failure times.
If you want a spreadsheet to compare GAMMA.INV() and CHISQ.INV
alternatives, let me know. The difference is surprising. For large numbers
of failures, confidence intervals may not even overlap!
Reply
Mitch Finne says

What is the source for the 2T/X2 equation. I find many resources
describing the X2 distribution and confidence intervals, but I’ve never seen
it get boiled down to this form. I see it in other pages (TI, Micronote, etc)
but again there is no stated reference as to where it comes from. Any
pointers to a reference text would be appreciated. Thanks.
Reply
Fred Schenkelberg says

Hi Mitch,
thanks for the question – John wrote this article so I am not sure
which reference he used. The equations are fairly common in older
reliability texts. I found the equations and discussion in my copy of
Handbook of Reliability Engineering and Management 2nd edition on
page 25.28. I’m sure you can find other references by searching for
Failure or Time censored life testing.
cheers,
Fred
Reply
joe wiley says

March 2, 2023 at 12:37 AM
thanks
Reply
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9/14/23, 8:35 AM Confidence Intervals for MTBF - Accendo Reliability

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by Fred Schenkelberg — 8 Comments

As with other point estimates, we often want to calculate the

Keep in mind that when calculating MTBF, we are using the

The discussion here is for either an exponential distribution based point

Lower Confidence Limit for Type I Censoring

The formula for the Type I lower confidence interval is

θ is the calculated mean life (MTBF)

Lower Confidence Limit for Type II Censoring

Note the small change in the calculation of the degrees of freedom.

Two Sided Confidence Interval Formulas

The 2r+2 degrees of freedom is only for the lower bound.

For the Type II or failure censored data the equations are

Reliability with confidence (article)

Laplace’s Trend Test (article)

Confidence Limits (article)

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About Fred Schenkelberg

N.Chaitanya Kumar reddy says

Hi sir, thanks for sharing.

Hilaire Perera says

When components in a system have constant Failure Rates, Mean Time

Reliability at any time within the Useful Life period

The mean life function (often denoted as “MTBF”) is not a good

For people who are unable to establish a Failure/Time distribution to

Larry George says

Incredible MTBF Prediction Confidence Intervals

proportional hazards scaled by ratio(s) of MTBF(old)/MTBF(new). This is

Larry George says

It wasn’t obvious to me that the formula for LCL should be

Larry George says

Technically, the chi-square confidence limits on MTBF are approximations

Mitch Finne says

Fred Schenkelberg says

joe wiley says

CRE Preparation Notes

It’s free and only takes a minute.

Get Full Site Access

Not ready to join?

CRE Preparation Notes

Probability and Statistics for

Reliability in Design and

Reliability Modeling and

Maintainability and Availability

Data Collection and Use

© 2023 FMS Reliability · Privacy Policy · Terms of Service · Cookies Policy

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