Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Spring 2022
Prepared by:
Adianto Juniardi Prakoso - 2020220060
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
Based on the simulation being conducted by researchers, there is simulation shows that along with
every shock caused by COVID-19 to national supply and demand, Indonesia will most likely
experience economic stagnation by 2021 especially with the gross domestic product (GDP) level 4–
8% lower than the business as usual (BAU) level during the pandemic that started from 2020-2021.
The two biggest sectors that will receive the hardest hit with this stagnation are the transportation
and tourism sectors, making up a GDP loss ranging from 30% to 50%. (Malayhati,2021).
Despite there is rapid progress in vaccination in Indonesia due to the mass vaccination program
being declared by the government, there is still uncertainty among the people that is very high
considering the projected time gap until the global economy will fully recover from the pandemic.
Additionally, there is a possibility of new COVID-19 variants will occur to Indonesia. If that happens,
the Indonesian government may need to declare another social restriction because it will hamper
the economy even further than the previous year as the government budget will not be sufficient
to support people’s lives and a chance that the vaccination may not fully combat the new variants.
In addition, Indonesia is the country with the fourth-largest population in the world, so the
government needs to ensure the availability of food for the people during global uncertainty by
either making the safety protocol stricter even though most of the people already received a
vaccine (Pemerintah Republik Indonesia, 2021).
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1.4. Relevance of Study
This study was made for academic purposes with the hope of enriching the capital market and
consumer good industry literature during the COVID 19 pandemic. In addition, this study is
expected to be a signal to investors and managers of the company regarding changes that may
occur related to the dividend payout ratio.
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CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
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2.2.4. Pecking Order Theory of Dividend
Pecking order theory ranks the company's funding priority system starting from internal and
then external funds. According to Culata and Gunarsih (2012), "the order of financial sources
used was the source of internal funds from profits, short-term securities, debt, preferred
stock and common stock last". Companies prefer internal funding sources because they do
not need to disclose a large amount of information to external parties. However, internal
sources of funds are often unable to finance all investment and operational activities of the
company. When that happens, the company will turn to external sources of funds by
prioritizing sources of debt funds rather than issuing equity securities.
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CHAPTER 3
HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT AND RESEARCH FRAMEWORK
H1 = There is a significant difference between EPS before pandemic and after pandemic
H2 = There is a significant difference between DPS before pandemic and after pandemic
Meanwhile, company size does not have a significant effect on the Dividend Payout Ratio
(Widodo et al., 2021). This can happen because the level of performance of the companies
studied is almost the same as each other. Results may differ if there are a combination of
large and small companies on the research subject.
H3 = There is a significant relationship between ROA, DR, and the size of company with DPR in
2019
H4 = There is a significant relationship between RA, DR, and the size of company with DPR in
2020
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Figure 3.2a Research Conceptual Model for H1 & H4
Consumer Goods
Industries
Dividend Payout
Ratio
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CHAPTER 4
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The sample used in this research includes 38 companies that run in the consumer goods sector.
Although there are more than 70 companies in the sector, only 38 of them actually paid dividends
during 2019-2020. The data of DPS and EPS are gained from RTI Business, a platform to analyze
stocks' performance. DPR is calculated through dividing DPS by EPS. Debt Ratio, ROA, and asset size
data are obtained from Mirae Asset Sekuritas database through their Financial Statement feature.
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Regression Analysis Variables
Dividend Payout Ratio DPR The ratio of dividend distributed by the earnings per share
(DPS divided by EPS).
Return on Assets ROA The percentage of income generated by the assets that is
obtained by dividing net income with total assets.
Debt Ratio DR The percentage of total liabilities compared to total assets.
Size of company - The amount of total assets of the company.
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CHAPTER 5
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
100
50
0
DPS 2019 DPS 2020
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Using descriptive analysis, we can see that the average EPS of consumer goods companies is
decreasing in 2020 by 23.6%, which means that the companies perform poorer compared with their
2019 performance in average. However, the average DPR of consumer goods companies is
increasing in 2020 by 55.8%, which leads the average DPS increase by 92.5% in 2020.
Standard
Mean Range Minimum Maximum Count
Deviation
DPS 2019 66.8592105 103.0549314 420 0 420 38
DPS 2020 128.745512 419.6661464 2600 0 2600 38
EPS 2019 287.580789 910.3178522 5653 2 5655 38
EPS 2020 219.701579 650.2800331 4247 -272 3975 38
DPR 2019 0.39020526 0.383543787 1.7385 0 1.7385 38
DPR 2020 0.60796053 0.756257386 4.2857 0 4.2857 38
ROA 2019 0.09715789 0.077539363 0.347 0.002 0.349 38
ROA 2020 0.08218421 0.073733947 0.384 -0.024 0.36 38
DR 2019 0.35457308 0.186682085 0.79794945 0.008 0.80594945 38
DR 2020 0.37193187 0.185992569 0.7289128 0.01 0.7389128 38
Size 2019 12366351.1 21396180.61 95677066 521493 96198559 38
Size 2020 16094436.8 32698071.38 162638496 498020 163136516 38
The table below shows the correlation analysis which will be needed for regression analysis later.
As we can see, the correlation value between the independent variable and dependent variable is
still in acceptable range, which is between -0.8 and 0.8. Hence, the multicollinearity problem can be
avoided in regression analysis later.
DPR DPR ROA ROA Debt Ratio Debt Ratio Size Size 2020 (in
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 millions)
DPR 2019 1.000
DPR 2020 0.087 1.000
ROA 2019 0.445 0.032 1.000
ROA 2020 0.395 -0.011 0.855 1.000
Debt Ratio
2019 -0.103 -0.133 -0.527 -0.352 1.000
Debt Ratio
2020 -0.065 -0.126 -0.452 -0.315 0.869 1.000
Size 2019 (in
million) 0.010 -0.035 0.154 0.063 0.027 0.061 1.000
Size 2020 (in
millions) 0.034 -0.056 0.088 -0.003 0.027 0.123 0.933 1.000
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5.2. Data Analysis
The data analysis will cover the result of Paired Two-Samples for Means t-Testing that will be used
to support the answer for Hypothesis 1 and Hypothesis 2 and regression analysis that will cover
Hypothesis 3 and Hypothesis 4. The first test is used to measure the statistical differences between
the mean of EPS and DPS in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The second test will answer the regression
model and its hypotheses.
The result of both tests can be seen in Table 4 below. It is shown from Paired Two-Samples test that
there is a 23.7% decrease of mean EPS from 2019 to 2020 and 192% increase of mean DPS from
2019 to 2020. However, the P-value is not significant for both EPS and DPS. For the regression
analysis, the result shows that in 2019, only ROA significantly affects DPR with the P-value of
0.0039, meanwhile there are no significant independent variables for 2020.
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Company size 2019 -1.46E-09 -0.53 0.60
Hypothesis 4
Regression Analysis 2020
Coefficient t Stat P-Value R Square
Intercept 0.88 2.36 0.02
ROA 2020 -0.56 -0.30 0.76
0.02
Debt Ratio 2020 -0.56 -0.77 0.45
Company size 2020 -9.12E-10 -0.23 0.82
5.3. Discussion
The finding of this research shows that there is a significant factor, ROA, that affects DPR in 2019,
which means that null hypothesis of 2019 is rejected (H3 is accepted). However, ROA is not
significant anymore to affect DPR in 2020 (H4 is rejected). Because there are no significant
independent variables to affect DPR for 2020, null hypothesis is accepted for 2020. The Paired
Two-Samples test also shows that there is a decrease in EPS and increase in DPS, although using t-
test shows that the data is not significant both in 2019 and 2020 (reject H1 and H2). Usually EPS
positively affects DPS, which means higher EPS results in higher DPS and vice versa (Kiboi, 2015).
However, as expected from the consumer goods sector that can perform well during uncertain
situation, the dividend payment increases in 2020. There are even nine companies from the sample
that did not pay dividends for 2019 and paid dividends for 2020. However, there are also
companies that did not pay dividends anymore in 2020, while they did pay it previously. Hence, the
t-test shows that the difference of EPS, DPS, and DPR between 2019 and 2020 are not significant.
The results of the tests show that there is an inconsistency of ROA, DR, and size performance to
affect DPR. Although ROA was significant in 2019, it became insignificant in 2020. This might be
resulted from companies that choose to pay more dividends in 2020 although their average asset
growth is only 12.16% and mean ROA growth is only 4.8%, resulting in higher conversion of EPS into
DPS which increase their DPR as well despite having lower asset growth. However, the mean DR
growth is also only 11%, which is below the asset growth. This phenomenon can be explained that
during uncertain situation although ROA growth is lower than DR, companies prefer to pay more
dividends to show a positive performance on the stock market to attract more investors. This
occurrence is in line with a previous study which stated that around 40% of companies distributed
dividends positively between 2019 and 2020 while only 32% of them choose not to distribute
dividends at all (Tinungki et al., 2022). Therefore, it can be concluded that despite a not so huge
growth of profit and assets, companies in the consumer goods sector tend to pay dividends to show
a good image of their company performance to attract more investors.
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CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSION, LIMITATION, AND RECOMMENDATION
6.1. Conclusion
This study was made for two purposes which are to find out whether the COVID-19 pandemic
affected the distribution of dividends by consumer goods companies and whether ROA, Debt Ratio
and size of the company had a significant effect on the Dividend Payout ratio. The results of the
research show that ROA affects the Dividend Payout Ratio significantly but only in 2019.
Meanwhile, the Debt Ratio and company asset size do not significantly affect the Dividend Payout
Ratio both in 2019 and 2020.
6.2 Limitation
The limitation in this study is the number of the sample which only involves 38 companies in the
consumer goods sector. In addition, the time period that is used in the research is also limited
which only consists of 2 years starting from 2019 to 2020. It is relatively too short so it can affect
the results of the tests. This research also only attempts a multiple linear regression without testing
the possibility of using interaction variables that might increase the accuracy of the analysis. The
last consideration is that there are only three variables to regress which are ROA, Debt Ratio, and
company size. Although the result shows these three variables are not significant, there is a
possibility of them being significant if being combined with another variable.
6.3 Recommendation
In order for future studies to be conducted better, there are several suggestions for future
researchers. Considering the limitation of the period that is used, it is better that the next study
uses a longer period of time in order to produce a more accurate result. In addition, future studies
can use more variables in order to find out more clearly what variables can significantly affect the
Dividend Payout Ratio, such as Debt to Equity (DER) and Return on Equity (ROE) ratios. Moreover,
there is still room for a better and more accurate regression analysis technique. Future researchers
on this topic have the option to run regression analysis for interaction variables and compare the
accuracy with another type of regression analysis.
Nonetheless, this research can also give insight that the investor should not rely on only the
variable that we research, since the pandemic effect shows that the patterns that occurred before
pandemic are not shown again in the pandemic era. Hence, investors should investigate more in
the fundamental aspects of the company, such as their company policy and the company behavior.
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