Single Feature Forecaster or Throughput Forecaster

What is this: This spreadsheet helps to probabilistically forecast how long it will take to complete features based on stor
and stories ba
estimates
estimates.and either estimated team throughput or historical team throughput samples.
How does it work? Given your estimates, this spreadsheet hypothetically completes all work 500 times. It calculates like
as the number of simulated trials that finished on or before a given date.

Why is this better than burndowns and traditional Agile forecasting? Most forecasting techniques give a single date res
the likelihood of that date. Most often the date given as the result is 50% because work is divided by an average (or med
the odds of a coin-toss.
toin-coss. This method allows the reader to choose the amount of schedule risk they wish to sign-up for. 85
common middle ground used in the industry.
Is it reliable? It has no mathematical errors (that we know of!), and all we guarantee is its better than intuition alone and
simple regression
Is it reliable? It hasmodels. But, help us
no mathematical improve
errors (thatitwe
by know
lettingof!),
us know when
and all it misses the
we guarentee actual
is its results
better than you are seeing.
intuition alone an
simple regression models. But, help us improve it by letting us know when it misses the actual results you are seeing.
How to: Fill in the orange boxes in the Forecast worksheet and read off the dates in the results table adjacent to the
How to: Fill in the orange
likelihood/certainty you think
boxes
is appropriate.
in the Forecast worksheet and read off the dates in the results table adjacent to the
likelihood/certainty you think is appropriate. 85% is a common industry level of certainty used.
What is throughput? Where do I get that data? Throughput is the number of DONE stories completed by a team per we
What is
sprint (you
throughput?
choose in this
Where
spreadsheet,
do I get that
default
data?is Throughput
per week). is the number of DONE stories completed by a team per we
sprint (you choose in this spreadsheet, default is per week). We will be providing a viz that gathers this data for your team
tuned.errors, requests? Email: troy.magennis@focusedobjective.com
Ideas,
Work licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Get more tools like this from: http://bit.ly/SimResources

About us: Focused Objective LLC offers tools, training and expert advice on metrics, risk and forecasting. We have more
tools to model Agile teams and projects that help analyze staffing options and risk, and a proven track record of positive
are always happy to discuss next steps and training opportunities should this tool prove useful. See our website:
http://www.focusedobjective.com or email me at troy.magennis@focusedobjective.com.

Version history:

1.00 4/7/2015 Initial beta release for feedback.

2 5/7/2021 Added scope certainty, team focus and triangle throughput distribution.
 caster

plete features based on story

and stories count
based range
on range Please Remember: This forecast is only as good as the estimates you enter into it. Alw
for multiple ways to forecast your project and compare the outcomes, especially if m
financially critical decision. In the end - any decision to proceed with a project is YOU
500 times. It calculates likelihood result

niques give a single date result and hide

vided by an average (or median). That's
Thats
k they wish to sign-up for. 85% is a Want to learn how this works and how to use it? Read my "In-progress" book on M
https://medium.com/forecasting-using-data
tter than intuition alone and better than
altter
results
than you are seeing.
intuition alone and better than
al results you are seeing. Go to my training workshop and
ts table adjacent to the
ts table adjacent to the consulting website
d.
ompleted by a team per week or per
ompleted by a team per week or per
athers this data for your team. Stay

ational License.

forecasting. We have more advanced

ven track record of positive results. We
ul. See our website:

Credits:
Formula for triangular distribution by Dawn E. Wright, Ph.D. : https://www.drdaw
 is only as good as the estimates you enter into it. Always look
ur project and compare the outcomes, especially if making a
e end - any decision to proceed with a project is YOURS.

and how to use it? Read my "In-progress" book on Medium - Forecasting using Data
ting-using-data

g workshop and
g website

ution by Dawn E. Wright, Ph.D. : https://www.drdawnwright.com/easy-excel-inverse-triangular-distribution-for-monte-carlo-simulations/

monte-carlo-simulations/
 Want help? Go to my training workshop and consulting website
Contact ME
Email: troy.magennis@focusedobjective.com
Twitter: @t_magennis
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/troymagennis
Schedule a call: https://freebusy.io/data/data
FocusedObjective.com - Forecasting and Metrics Consulting and Training

Online Calculators
Here is a set of online articles that help understand the mathematics behind Agile. We add to these all the tim
would like to hear ideas you have for more.
Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation and Forecasting

How much improvement do I get by adding more teams or people?

Story Point Velocity or Throughput Forecasting - Does it matter?

Understanding Optimal Batch Size

How Does Utilization Impact Lead-time of Work?

Impact of Multiple Team Dependencies in Software Development

MORE - Agile data notebooks and calculator articles...

Forecasting and Metric Spreadsheets

To be honest, you probably know us because of our spreadsheet tools. Thats OK, but now consider training :)

Multiple Feature Cut Line Forecaster: I want to forecast multiple features at once

Team Dashboard: I want to quickly create an team dashboard

Skill and Capability Survey and Matrix: I want to quickly survey teams to understand skill constraint

Time Series Forecasting for Demand

MORE - A lot more on our GitHub repo ....

bsite

I recently launced a SaaS application to track and manage

Blockers and Dependencies between teams. It is FREE to
use at a team level (just invite your team members and
have a consolidated view of all impediments and the
causes of those impediments).

See: BlockedApp.com for all the details

(click anywhere in this box to open)
Once you have flow and blockers under control at a team
level, invite other teams and other organizations to start
fixing those flow problems (and we then gladly accept your
credit-card for monthly subscription based on # teams).

Features at a glance -
- Capture Blockers and the causes of those blockers for
YOUR team, these are always sorted by Urgency and Age to
make sure the right "Blockers" pop to the top.
- See what teams are blocked by YOUR team
- Email and Slack notifications (if turned on) on new
blockers to the right teams and channels
- Analytics (charts of course, it is me you know) on"Blockers
in Progress" "Team vs Team Matrix" "Leading Causes" and
"Lost Days" charts
- Full bi-directional integration with JIRA (if configured)
nd manage
s FREE to
bers and
d the

at a team
s to start
accept your
teams).

kers for
y and Age to

new

on"Blockers
auses" and
figured)
 Forecast Duration and Completion Date
enter the values in
1. Start Date 1/1/2021 (optional) orange cells only

2. How many stories are remaining to be completed?

low guess 20 high guess 25

scope complexity Clear and understood (change this list and growth factors in the "Settings" worksheet)
adjusted scope 20 25

3. Stories are often split before and whilst being worked on. Estimate the split rate low and high bounds.
Often the throughput/veloicty in the backlog is pre-split, but captured completed stories post-splitting by the dev team making forecasts optomistic.

low split guess 1.00 highest split guess 1.50

4. Throughput. How many completed stories per week or sprint do you estimate low and high bounds?

Throughput/velocity data or estimate is for 1 week 7 days

Use historical throughput/velocity data OR enter a low and high estimate below. Use: Estimate

Note: these throughput/velocity estimates are ignored when using historical data. Enter values in the Historical Samples worksheet instead.
worst case 1 most often 3 (optional) best case 10

Team focus on THIS work 100% (only this work) 100%

Can I use velocity rather than throughput?

Yes. If you do have estimates in story points, then you can sum all of the estimates and use that for input 2 and
estimate or use historical team velocity for input 4. The benefit of using throughput (count of completed stories
per week/sprint) is that the individual stories don't require estimation in story points. This is a longer
discussion :)

Forecast Story Count Completion by Time Period

5. How long? 6 1 weeks Result: Total Pre-split Stories in 6 1 weeks
(To forecast story counts, enter the how long. (Pre-split means, splitting IS accounted for)
To change unit, change input 4. above.) 95% 15
85% 17 <--- Tip: This is your forecasted # sto
5% 29

How do I use this story count forecast?

This forecast aims to show how many stories might be completed given the team data or estimates entered
above. Enter all data for inputs 3. and 4. above. This forecast simulates 500 times to determine what number
of stories will be completed for the period you entered for input 5. It also creates a chart view of this forecast
in the charts tab. This forecast ignores risk data, and un-necessary inputs 1 and 2 from above.
This forecast aims to show how many stories might be completed given the team data or estimates entered
above. Enter all data for inputs 3. and 4. above. This forecast simulates 500 times to determine what number
of stories will be completed for the period you entered for input 5. It also creates a chart view of this forecast
in the charts tab. This forecast ignores risk data, and un-necessary inputs 1 and 2 from above.
 Results
No. of 1 week intervals
the values in
nge cells only Likelihood Duration Date
100% 13 4/2/2021
95% 9 3/5/2021 Almost certain
90% 8 2/26/2021
85% 8 2/26/2021
tors in the "Settings" worksheet) 80% 8 2/26/2021
75% 7 2/19/2021
70% 7 2/19/2021
Somewhat certain
d high bounds. 65% 7 2/19/2021
forecasts optomistic. 60% 7 2/19/2021
55% 7 2/19/2021
50% 6 2/12/2021
high bounds? 45% 6 2/12/2021
40% 6 2/12/2021
35% 6 2/12/2021
30% 6 2/12/2021
25% 6 2/12/2021 Less than coin-toss odds.
20% 5 2/5/2021 But if you are game?
15% 5 2/5/2021
10% 5 2/5/2021
5% 5 2/5/2021
0% 3 1/22/2021

Want help? Go to my training workshop and consulting website

use that for input 2 and

ount of completed stories
his is a longer

Stories in 6 1 weeks
tting IS accounted for)

-- Tip: This is your forecasted # storiess for this period at 85% confidence

or estimates entered
etermine what number
rt view of this forecast
above.
or estimates entered
etermine what number
rt view of this forecast
above.
in-toss odds.
e game?
Enter Samples Below Group (Unique Rank (ignore)
Instructions.
1 1 1
3 2 2 If you have team historic throughput samples, you can use them
5 2 4 estimate the range in the forecast sheet. When actual data bec
your forecast will become more indicative.
3 1 3
7 1 5 Add seven (7) minimum, and twenty five (25) maximum recent
8 2 6 team. These samples will be used as throughput values picked a
data, the forecast will follow the patterns your teams throughp

Remember to set the unit of throughput measure.

No blank rows within sample range, leave rows after the last sa

Data beyond 24 weeks is most likely out of date. When adding,

top and remove older samples from the bottom.

Stability Between Two Random Groups of the Samples

Group All 1
count 6 3
min 1 1
max 8 7
How many samples? avg 4.5 3.6666666667
median 4 3
You could make this spreadsheet use more
historical data, but its not statistically avg error
necessary. My advice: use the most recent 15
samples if you have them to avoid using "old" error/range
data that was cptured when the team was
performing differently than it is now. You
should use the most recent data where the
error percentage is less than 10%
Total Count 6
Data 5
Estimate 5
Samples Or Data 8

These are for testing the formulas that return random s

between the estimates. They are included here for educ

ughput samples, you can use them when forecasting forward. If not,
cast sheet. When actual data becomes available, add it here and
re indicative.
twenty five (25) maximum recent throughput samples for your
sed as throughput values picked at random. By using your teams
he patterns your teams throughput historically follows.
hroughput measure.
What is throughput? Where do I get that
data? Throughput is the number of DONE
stories completed by a team per week or per
sprint (you choose in this spreadsheet,
default is per week). Also see our Throughput
and Cycle Time Calculator spreadsheet for
convertinf story/item data to throughput
values. Also see our tutorials on how to use
Excel to calculate throughput rates.

range, leave rows after the last sample blank.

t likely out of date. When adding, add most recent samples to the
s from the bottom.

Groups of the Samples

2 Diff
3 0
3
8
5.333333 -1.66666666667
5 -2
1.666666666667 I also tried average of the mean and median error….but think average will do.

24% Aim to keep this below 25%. By adding more sample data. You will see where to stop.

Transportable data formats

CSV 1,3,5,3,7,8
7 5 3 3 SIP 2.0 <sip name="dist" type="CSV" v
1 7 6 6 Distributio<distribution name="dist" shap
7 9 3 3

These formats are to help share throu

CSV = simple comma separated value
he formulas that return random ssamples from data or SIP 2.0 = ProbabilityManagement.org
s. They are included here for education and reference. Distribution = FocusedObjective.com'
 get that
of DONE
week or per
sheet,
r Throughput
sheet for
oughput
how to use
es.

rage will do.

ll see where to stop.

able data formats

<sip name="dist" type="CSV" ver="1.0" count="6" average="4.5" median="4">1,3,5,3,7,8</sip>

<distribution name="dist" shape="fromSamples">1,3,5,3,7,8</distribution>

formats are to help share throughput samples with others or teams should the need arise.
simple comma separated value list
0 = ProbabilityManagement.org's SIP standard for sharing data
bution = FocusedObjective.com's distribution format for sharing and creating random data from samples in their simulation software
r simulation software
Likelihood Impact Low Impact High Description

Examples
Likelihood Impact Low Impact High Description
30% 10 15 Server performance issues
15% 5 10 Layout issues when text localized
20% 5 15 Layout in Safari issues

Why would I use risks?

Risks allow you to put a probability on work being expanded because of something more than
plan. For example, there might be a chance that more work is needed to improve performance
characteristics. If you think there is a 20% chance, put 20 in the likelihood column. Have the
team estimate the low and high story count to rectify and add these to the low and high impact
columns.
Combined Impact Est. impact in 1 Impact Rank Risk impact analysis
(higher is worse) week's (fix lowest first) It can be hard to determine what risks are most
impactful when they have different likelihoods and
impacts. The risks are ranked here from most impactful
(Rank = 1) to least impactful.

This is a simple ranking. It helps quickly see what is the

most important to decrease likelihood or impact.

Calculations -
average story count 28.125
duration at 85th P 8
count per period 3.516
 s are most
kelihoods and
om most impactful

ly see what is the

d or impact.
 Number of
Date Incompleted
(week ending) (but in scope) stories
1/1/2021 27
1/8/2021 25
1/15/2021 20
1/22/2021 19
1/29/2021
2/5/2021
2/12/2021
2/19/2021
2/26/2021
3/5/2021
3/12/2021
3/19/2021
3/26/2021
4/2/2021
4/9/2021
4/16/2021
4/23/2021
4/30/2021
5/7/2021
5/14/2021
5/21/2021
5/28/2021
6/4/2021
6/11/2021
6/18/2021
6/25/2021
7/2/2021
7/9/2021
7/16/2021
7/23/2021
7/30/2021
8/6/2021
8/13/2021
8/20/2021
8/27/2021
9/3/2021
9/10/2021
9/17/2021
9/24/2021
10/1/2021
10/8/2021
10/15/2021
10/22/2021
10/29/2021
11/5/2021
11/12/2021
11/19/2021
11/26/2021
12/3/2021
12/10/2021
12/17/2021
Notes

Instructions.

Enter the actual number of IN-COMPLETE it

dates shown in column A. This line will be c
l number of IN-COMPLETE items in the backlog in column B for the
column A. This line will be charted on the burndown chart.
 Simulated Forecast Date Frequency
160 152
148

140

120
Simulated Occurrence Frequency

100

80 76
70

60

40

20 18

0
1/29/2021 2/5/2021 2/12/2021 2/19/2021 2/26/2021 3/

Forecast Completed Date (on or before)

40 Simulated Burn Downs (first 50)

35

30

25
Remaining Stories

20

15

10

0
21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
/ 20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20
1 8 5 2 9 5 2 9 6 5 2
1/ 1/ 1/1 1/2 1/2 2/ 2/1 2/1 2/2 3/ 3/1

Date

Completed Story Count by Time Period

250
What is this chart?
This chart shows the number of completed (pre-split)
stories for a given period. Select the time period on
200 the forecast worksheet. The forecast is shown at three
confidence intervals specified on the forecast
worksheet.
ries

150
 250
What is this chart?
This chart shows the number of completed (pre-split)
stories for a given period. Select the time period on
200 the forecast worksheet. The forecast is shown at three
confidence intervals specified on the forecast
worksheet.
Completed stories
150

100

50

0
4 1 weeks 8 1 weeks 12 1 weeks 16 1 weeks 20 1 weeks 24 1 weeks 28 1 weeks 32 1 weeks 36 1 wee

95% 85% 5%

Story count results in table form. For the probabilities entered, how many stories for each period?

4 1 weeks 8 1 weeks 12 1 weeks16 1 weeks20 1 weeks24 1 weeks28 1 weeks32 1 weeks

95% 8 20 32 45 57 69 82 95
85% 10 23 36 49 62 75 88 102
5% 21 38 54 71 86 101 116 132
 What is this chart?
te Frequency This chart shows how many simulated trials
completed on or before the x-axis date. The higher
the bar, the more likely that outcome.

70

30

5 2
2/26/2021 3/5/2021 3/12/2021 3/19/2021

te (on or before)

ns (first 50) What is this chart?

This chart shows the simulated burn-down trends. It
shows the first 50 trials and visually shows the general
hotspots and outlier dates. Enter actual stories
remaining in the Reamining Stories Actual worksheet
to see progress.

by Time Period
weeks 32 1 weeks 36 1 weeks 40 1 weeks 44 1 weeks 48 1 weeks 52 1 weeks

5%

each period?

36 1 weeks40 1 weeks44 1 weeks48 1 weeks52 1 weeks

109 121 134 147 159
115 129 143 156 168
147 160 175 190 207
Week Frequency
1/22/2021 1
1/29/2021 76
2/5/2021 152
2/12/2021 148
2/19/2021 70
2/26/2021 30
3/5/2021 5
3/12/2021 2
3/19/2021 0
3/26/2021 0
4/2/2021 1
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Duration name days
1 week 7 This table converts throughput duration name to nu
here. The days is used to increment forecasting per
2 weeks 14 in increments of this value.
3 weeks 21
4 weeks 28

Complexity Low Multiplier High Multiplier What is this table?

Clear and understood
Somewhat understood
Not really understood yet
Very unclear or understood
1 1 Sometimes we estimate the size of w
chance to really understand it yet. U
1 1.5 table to adjust the scope to account
1.5 2 uncertainty. The low and high multip
1.75 3 estimated scope values.

Focus Adjustment
100% (only this work) 1
75% (mostly this work) 0.75
50% (half this work) 0.5
25% (some of this work) 0.25
throughput duration name to number of days. Add more or edit these
ed to increment forecasting periods. Resolution of forecast will also be
s value.

at is this table?
etimes we estimate the size of work without a
nce to really understand it yet. Use this complexity
e to adjust the scope to account for this
ertainty. The low and high multipliers adjust the
mated scope values.