Solution Manual for For All Practical Purposes: Mathematical Literacy in Today’s World Ten

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Mathematical Literacy in Today’s World Tenth
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Chapter 8
Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

Chapter Outline
Introduction
Section 8.1 Random Phenomena and Probability
Section 8.2 Basic Rules of Probability
Section 8.3 Rules of Probability: Independent and Dependent Events
Section 8.4 Discrete Probability Models
Section 8.5 Equally Likely Outcomes
Section 8.6 Continuous Probability Models
Section 8.7 The Mean and Standard Deviation of a Probability Model
Section 8.8 The Central Limit Theorem

Chapter Summary
Probability is the mathematics of random phenomena. For such phenomena, individual outcomes are
uncertain, but, in the long run, a regular pattern describes how frequently each outcome occurs.
A probability model for a random phenomenon consists of a sample space, which is the set of all
possible outcomes, and a way of assigning probabilities to events (sets of outcomes). There are two
important ways of assigning probabilities. First, assign a probability to each outcome and then determine the
probability of an event by adding the probabilities of the outcomes that comprise the event. This method is
particularly appropriate for finite sample spaces. Often counting methods (combinatorics) are used to
determine how many elements are in the sample space or in a subset of the same space. Second, and this
method is useful if the outcomes are numbers, we can assign probabilities directly to intervals of numbers as
areas under a curve.
In either case, the probability of an event must be a number between zero and one inclusive, and the
probabilities of all outcomes must add up to one (interpreted in the second case as the total area under the
curve is exactly one). Moreover, if two events A and B are disjoint (meaning that they have no outcomes
in common), then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B). In general though, P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A and B ) . If
two events A and B are independent (meaning the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability
of the occurrence of the other event), then P ( A and B ) = P ( A)× P ( B ). However, in general, the probability of
an event is affected by the occurrence of other events. When such conditions are introduced into a problem
modifying the underlying sample space, thus changing the probabilities of various outcomes, this is called
conditional probability. In the particular, case of a sample space having k outcomes that are equally likely,
these conditions imply that each outcome must be assigned probability 1/k. A probability histogram gives a
visual representation of a probability model. The height of each bar gives the probability of the outcome at
its base, and the sum of the heights is one.
For a random phenomenon with numerical outcomes, the average outcome to expect in the long run is
called its mean, denoted μ. The mean is a weighted average of the outcomes (each outcome weighted by its
probability). The law of large numbers tells us that the mean of actually observed outcomes, , will approach μ
as the number of observations increases.
Probability density curves (or just density curves) are important in assigning probabilities. Continuous
probability models, such as the uniform distribution or the normal distribution, assign probabilities as area
under the curves. Because any normal distribution is symmetric about its mean and satisfies the 68–95–99.7
rule, this distribution is used in a variety of applications.

223
224 Chapter 8 Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

Sampling distributions are important in statistical inference. Random sampling ensures that each sample
is equally likely to be chosen. Any number computed from a sample is called a statistic, and the term
sampling distribution is applied to the distribution of any statistic. In particular, a statistic is a random
phenomenon. An important statistic is the sample mean, x. The Central Limit Theorem tells us that the
sampling distribution of this statistic is approximately normal if the sample size is large enough.

Skill Objectives
1. Explain what is meant by random phenomenon, and describe its sample space.

2. Explain what is meant by the probability of an outcome.

3. Describe a given probability model by its two parts.

4. List and apply the six rules of probability and be able to determine the validity/invalidity of a probability
model by identifying which rule(s) is (are) not satisfied.

5. Understand the difference between disjoint events and independent events.

6. Compute the probability of an event when the probability model of the experiment is given.

7. Apply probability rules to calculate the probability of a combination of several events.

8. Apply, write, and calculate the correct combinatorics formula for a given situation.

9. Calculate t h e odds of an event occurring or not occurring given the probability that the event occurs or
not.

10. Calculate conditional probabilities and use Bayes Rule.

11. Draw the probability histogram of a probability model, and use it to determine probabilities of events.

12. Explain the difference between a discrete and a continuous probability model.

13. Determine probabilities with equally likely outcomes.

14. Use the fundamental principal of counting to determine the number of possible outcomes involved in an
event and/or the sample space.

15. List two properties of a density curve.

16. Construct basic density curves that involve geometric shapes (rectangles and triangles) and use them
in determining probabilities.

17. State the mean and calculate the standard deviation of a sample statistic ( p̂ ) normally distributed
population.

18. Explain and apply the 68–95–99.7 rule to compute probabilities for the value of p̂ from a single simple
random sample.

19. Compute the mean ( μ ) and standard deviation (σ )of an outcome when the associated probability model is
defined.

20. Explain the significance of the law of large numbers.

Instructor’s Guide with Solutions 225

21. Explain the significance of the Central Limit Theorem.

Teaching Tips
1. Probability experiments (binomial) such as tossing coins, answering questions on a true/false test, or
recording the sex of each child born to a family provide an easy-to-understand approach to probability.
Tree diagrams can be useful in such examples, but you may want to use the columnar-list approach.

Coin 1 Coin 2 Coin 3

H H H
H H T
H T H
H T T
T H H
T H T
T T H
T T T
Using this diagram to count the number of times a specific event occurs in the sample space helps
some students set up numerical values for the probability model. It’s then interesting to note that other
experiments that have only two outcomes behave the same way structurally.

2. The concept of the mean of a probability model (expected value) seems to be more easily
understood by some when it is placed in a monetary context. The example of betting $1 on red in a
roulette game generates student interest, and the resulting mean has meaning. Initially applying the same
concept to an event that is not associated with money, however, tends not to be as interesting and
therefore can be confusing. Giving an explanation of mean as a kind of average and then discussing
average winnings may help put it in perspective.

3. Students will need to apply the 68–95–99.7 rule throughout this chapter. Although the rule and
applications were given in Chapter 5, you may choose to have them concentrate on the following
diagram by inserting a specific mean and labeling the values that are one, two, and three standard
deviations from the mean. Also, you may mention that in the Student Study Guide a page of “blank”
normal distributions, such as the following one, appear after the Homework Help feature.

4. The first two text exercises provide nice hands-on activities that can pay dividends in terms of student
understanding. Some students need this tactile approach to reinforce the concepts.

5. Another readily accessible source of a distribution of digits is a phone book. You may choose to tear
pages out and ask students to collect information such as how many numbers end in an even or an odd
226 Chapter 8 Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

digit. You may consider including or not the first three digits of the telephone number in other data
collection activities.

6. For students who enjoy gambling, analyzing the game of craps with respect to the probability of
winning on the first roll or losing on the first roll is a fairly simple example. Students seem to enjoy
problems involving the rolling of dice.

Research Paper
A famous equation in fluid dynamics is the Bernoulli equation. It was derived by the Dutch-born
mathematician, Daniel Bernoulli (1700–1782). The family name Bernoulli is also a prominent part of
probability theory. Daniel Bernoulli’s uncle Jakob Bernoulli (1654–1705) wrote Ars Conjectandi (the Art of
Conjecturing). This work was groundbreaking in probability theory. In the binomial distribution, in which
experiments yield a success or failure, the terms Bernoulli experiment or Bernoulli trial are used. These
terms are a result Jakob’s body of work, which was published after his death. Students can further research
the life of Bernoulli family members. To focus on probability theory, direct students to research only Jakob
Bernoulli.

Note: Jakob Bernoulli’s first name can also appear as Jacob, James, or Jacque.

Collaborative Learning
Estimating Probability
This exercise involves tossing a fair coin and an unmarked (no Hs or Ts) version of the diagram below. An
unmarked copy of the diagram below and a table to organize the experimental results appear on the next
page. Break students into groups in which they start at the top of the triangle. A student should toss the coin.
If the coin lands tails, students should follow the path down and to the right. If the coin lands heads, students
should follow the path down and to the left. It will take three tosses in order to land at a point (A, B, C, or D).

Have students in a group perform this experiment (tossing the coin three times and recording the terminal
point) 40 times. Combine the results of each group on the board. Have the class find the experimental
probability of terminating at one of the four points for the collective results.

Bear in mind before you perform this experiment that many students will assume the probability of landing
at any of the four terminal points must be 0.25, “because there are only four possibilities: A, B, C or D.
Instructor’s Guide with Solutions 227

After the results are combined, ask students to determine the possible ways of obtaining each
terminal point by first examining the sample space of tossing a coin three times. After the pattern of exactly 3
heads for A, 2 heads for B, 1 head for C, 0 heads for D (or similar phrasing), ask students to construct the
actual probability model and the probability histogram.

Follow this up by asking students to construct the probability model and the probability histogram based on
an expanded version of the experiment. They do not need to actually perform the experiment.

A B C D

Tally
228 Chapter 8 Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

Solutions
Skills Check:
1. a 17. c
2. 24 18. 0.4
3. b 19. b
4. 0.85 20. 1
5. a 21. b
6. c 22. a
7. 0.3025 23. the population mean, 
1
8. 18 24. b
9. c 25. $50
10. 1 26. c
11. b 27. 1.0853
12. 0.30 28. 2
13. b 29. 516
14. 24 30. c
15. b 31. c
16. 0.30

Exercises:
1. Answers will vary.

2. Dataset (c) appears to be random as there is no predictable pattern. In dataset (a) the Hs and Ts alternate which
is totally predictable. In (b), the pattern is four Ts followed by four Hs, which is also totally predictable.
Last, in (d), the pattern is THHT which repeats and again, is totally predictable.

3. (a) Results will vary, but the probability of a head is usually greater than 0.5 when spinning pennies. One
possible explanation is the “bottle cap effect.” The rim on a penny is slightly wider on the head side, so just
as spinning bottle caps almost always fall with the open side up, pennies fall more often with the head side
up. Additional results will vary.
(b) Results will vary.
4. No, it is still a true statement of historical long-run frequency that 70% of the time it ends up raining under
those atmospheric conditions.

5. The first five lines contain 200 digits, of which 21 are zeroes. The proportion of zeroes is 21
200
 0.105.

6. (a) S = (Female, Male)

(b) S = (on campus, off campus)

(c) Answers will vary. Sample answer: S = the set of numbers from 4 feet to 7 feet
Instructor’s Guide with Solutions 229

(d) Answers will vary. Sample answer: Assuming no student is carrying more than $20 in change, the sample
space (in cents) is S = (0, 1, 2, 3, . . . 2000).

7. (a) We will use H for “hit” and M for “miss” in this exercise.
S = (HHHH, HHHM, HHMH, HMHH, MHHH, HHMM, HMMH, MMHH, HMHM, MHHM, MHMH,
HMMM, MMMH, MHMM, MMHM, MMMM)
(b) S = (0, 1, 2, 3, 4)

8. (a) S = (Female, Male)

(b) S = (6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20)
(c) S = whole numbers from 50 to 180 (use judgment for lower and upper limits)

9. (a) It is usually easier to add further branching to a tree than further dimensions to a table. Additionally, a tree
diagram gives a good way of visualizing the data and not repeating anything.

(b)

Using the above tree, we find the sample space to be S = (HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT).

(c) There are seven out of the eight branches that yield at least one of the three coins landing heads. Thus, the
probability of at least one of the three coins landing heads is 78 .
230 Chapter 8 Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

10.

(a) (b) (c)

T T(a) T(b) T(c)

F F(a) F(b) F(c)

S = [T(a), T(b), T(c), F(a), F(b), F(c)]

11. (a) 0. The probability of an impossible event is 0.

(b) 1. The probability of a certain event is 1.

(c) 0.01. If an event is very unlikely, it will have a probability close to 0; once per 100 trials in the long run.

(d) 0.6. If an event will occur somewhat more often than not, then it makes sense to have a probability slightly
higher than 0.5, hence 0.6 is the most reasonable answer.

12. (a)

Workers and vehicles Probability

Workers in households with zero vehicles 0.034

Workers in households exceeds vehicles 0.082

Workers in households equals vehicles 0.439

Vehicles exceed workers in household 0.445

(b) 0.034 + 0.082 + 0.439 + 0.445 = 1

(c) Under Rule 4, the addition rule for disjoint events is

P(workers equals vehicles or vehicles exceed workers) =
P(workers equals vehicles) + P(vehicles exceed workers) = 0.439 + 0.445 = 0.884.

(d) Under Rule 3, the complement rule is

P(workers have access to at least one vehicle in household) = 1 – P(workers in household with zero vehicles) = 1
– 0.034 = 0.966. (Could also use Rule 4.)

13. Half of the time the next flip is heads. In this case, Player A wins. In the other half of the time, the next flip will
be tails. When this happens, the two players both have three points and are tied. There will need to be one more flip
Instructor’s Guide with Solutions 231

in which Player A and Player B have an equal chance to obtain the flip they need to obtain four points. Thus, the
probability of Player A winning is 12  14  34 . The probability of Player B winning is 14 . To be fair, Player A should
3 1
receive 4
of the jackpot money and Player B should receive 4
of the jackpot money.

14. (a) 1  0.72  0.28, because the probabilities of all education levels must sum to 1.
(b) 1  0.12  0.88, or 0.31  0.28  0.29  0.88

P  AC  3
15. We are given that  and we wish to find P(A). First note that the probability of any event is always
P  A 2
between 0 and 1, hence we need to express these as fractions between 0 and 1. First we see that 2 + 3 = 5. So, we
3
C
can say that P( A ) = 3/5 and the P(A) = 2/5. Note that this checks out with what we were given because 5 3.
2 2
5
Note that one can generalize this in the following way: If the odds against event A are x to y, we have
P  AC  x x y
 C
. We can then say that P( A ) = and P(A) = .
P  A y x y x y

16. Three out of the four possible outcomes represent a brown outcome.

Mother gives B; P  B   1
2
Mother gives b; P  b   1
2

Father gives B; P  B   1
2
BB; P  BB   12  12  14 ; Bb; P  Bb   12  12  14 ;

outcome brown outcome brown

Father gives b; P  b   1
2
Bb; P  Bb   12  12  14 ; bb; P  bb   12  12  14 ;

outcome brown outcome blue

3
The probability is therefore 4
. This relates to Example 2 in the way that a child must receive at least one dominant
gene, B. In the example one was looking for the probability of observing at least one head.

17. No. If two events A and B (who both have non-zero probabilities) are mutually exclusive then they cannot
happen at the same time, hence P(A and B) = 0. If they were independent, then it would follow that P(A) × P(B)
= P(A and B) = 0. This would force P(A) = 0 or P(B) = 0, or both. This contradicts our assumption of both A and
B having positive probabilities.

18. (a) P(A and B) = P(A|B)P(B) = (0.2)(0.6) = 0.12.

(b) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B) = 0.3 + 0.6 – 0.12 = 0.78.

19. The three events of tossing a pair of dice are independent events. The probability of rolling an even sum is 1/2
(there are 18 out of 36 ways to roll an even sum). Because there are three independent events, the probability
that she will roll an even sum three times is (1/2)(1/2)(1/2) = 1/8 = 0.125.

20. Intuitively, when the odds are in your favor (or your probability of winning is greater), you want as many games
as possible to happen so your advantage has more chances to play itself out. If you take, for example, that
Player A (the better player) has a 60% chance of winning a single game, then Player A’s probability of winning
a one-game championship is 60%. However, in the best two out of three, the ways Player A could win are WW,
232 Chapter 8 Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

WLW, or LWW. Adding the probabilities of these sequences of events, the probability of Player A winning a
two-out-of-three series would be as follows:
 0.6 0.6   0.6 0.4 0.6   0.4 0.6 0.6  0.36  0.144  0.144  0.648
Notice that this probability is more than 60%.

21. (a) If A and B are two randomly selected workers, then P(A lives in a household where vehicles exceed workers)
= 0.445 and P(B lives in a household where vehicles exceed workers) = 0.445. We note that these are
independent events, hence P(A and B lives in a household where vehicles exceed workers) = P(A) × P(B) =
0.445 × 0.445 = 0.198025.
(b) Using the complement rule, the P( they both live in household where the number of vehicles does not
exceed the number of workers ) = 1 – 0.198025 = 0.801975.

22. We are given that P(Midwest) = 0.223 and P(“$75,000+” and Midwest) = 0.096. By the formula for conditional

probability, we have

P(“$75,000+” | Midwest) = P(“$75,000+” and Midwest)/P(Midwest) = 0.096/0.223 ≈ 0.430.

Approximately 43.0% of Midwestern households earn $75,000 or more per year.

23. We are given that P(South) = 0.32 and P(“$100,000+” and South) = 0.079. By the formula for conditional

probability, we have

P(“$100,000+” | South) = P(“$100,000 +” and South)/P(South) = 0.079/0.32 ≈ 0.247. Approximately

24.7% of Southern households earn $100,000 or more per year.

24. We are given that P(Northeast) = 0.188 and P($75,000+ | Northeast) = 0.212. By the formula for conditional

probability, we have

P(“$75,000+” and Northeast) = P($75,000+ | Northeast) × P(Northeast) = (0.212) × (0.188) ≈ 0.040.

Approximately 4% of U.S. households earn $75,000 or more per year and are located in the Northeast.

25. We will let F denote female; M denote male; and + denote above average intelligence.
(a) P(M) = 0.498 P(F) = 0.502 P(+|F) = 0.603 P(+|M) = 0.686
(b) P(F and +) = P(+|F) × P(F) = 0.603 × 0.502 = 0.303
(c) P(M and +) = P(+|M) × P(M) = 0.686 × 0.498 = 0.342
(d) P(+) = P(F and +) or P(M and +) = P(F and +) + P(M and +) = 0.303 + 0.342 = 0.645
(e) P(F|+) = P(F and +) / P(+) = 0.303 / 0.645 = 0.470
(f) We can compute P(M|+) = P(M and +) / P(+) = 0.342 / 0.645 = 0.530. Hence given that a student rated his or
her intelligence as above average, it is more likely that this student is male. Hence it decreases the probability
the student is a female.
Instructor’s Guide with Solutions 233

26. (a)

P(+) = P(U and +) + P(UC and +) = 0.2375 + 0.075 = 0.3125.

P(U|+) = P(U and +)/P(+) = 0.2375/0.3125 ≈ 0.76.

Therefore, there is a 76% chance that a positive test result identifies an actual user.

(b) P(+) = P(U and +) + P(UC and +) = (0.02)(0.95) + (0.98)(0.10) = 0.019+ 0.098 = 0.117.

P(U|+) = P(U and +)/P(+) = 0.019/0.117 ≈ 0.162.

Therefore, there is a 16.2% chance that a positive test result identifies and actual user. That means that 83.8% of

the positive test results are false positives.

27. (a) To check that this probability model is legitimate we can add the probabilities and be sure we get the sum to
be 1.
(b) The probability model is discrete since each household only fits in one of five categories and hence there are
only a finite number of outcomes.
(c) P(total income < $50,000 ) = P(income < $25,000 ) + P(income is $25,000 to $49,999) = 0.174 + 0.218 =
0.392.
(d) To find the probability a household will have an income less than $100,000 we could add the first 4
probabilities or alternatively, we can use the complement rule and say it is then
1 – P($100,000 or over ) = 1 – 0.283 = 0.717.
(e) These are independent events, hence the probability that both households will have a total income less than
$100,000 is the product of the probability that each household will have a total income less than $100,000 ( i.e.
P[A and B] = P[A] × P[B]). Hence we get 0.717 x 0.717 ≈ 0.514.

28. There are 16 possible outcomes for the two dice, all equally likely  probability 1
16 . Counting outcomes and
adding 1 to the sum gives the following model:
234 Chapter 8 Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

Intelligence 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Probability 1
16
2
16
3
16
4
16
3
16
2
16
1
16

The probability of intelligence 7 or higher is 3

16  162  161  166  83 .

29. (a) Following is the probability histogram:

The histogram does not look to be normally distributed.

(b) 0.43  0.21  0.64

30. The probability histograms show that owner-occupied housing units tend to have more rooms than rented units.
The center is around six rooms, as opposed to around four rooms for rented housing. Presumably more of the
owner-occupied units are houses, while more rented units are apartments. The distribution for rented units is
also more strongly peaked, indicating less variability.

31. (a) No. The probabilities are between 0 and 1, but the sum is greater than 1. Rule 2 is violated.
0.56  0.24  0.44  0.17  1.41
Instructor’s Guide with Solutions 235

(b) Yes. The probabilities are between 0 and 1, inclusively, and have sum 1.
0.39  0.28  0  0.33  1
One may find it surprising that no student surveyed was born in fall, but that outcome is possible.

32. For owner-occupied units, we have the following probability:

P  5,6,7,8,9,10  0.238  0.266  0.178  0.107  0.050  0.047  0.886

For rented units, we have the following probability:
P 5,6,7,8,9,10  0.224  0.105  0.035  0.012  0.004  0.005  0.385

33. Like tossing a pair of standard dice, the sample set contains a count between 2 and 12 with 36 possible
outcomes. The probability for each count is the same as the pair of standard dice.

Outcome 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Probability 1 1 1
12
1 5 1 5 1 1
12
1 1
36 18 9 36 6 36 9 18 36

34. Multiple outcomes need not each be equally likely. There is only one combination of numbers you can pick that
will match the winning jackpot numbers, but millions of equally likely sets of numbers that will not.

35. All 90 guests are equally likely to get the prize, so P  woman   48
90
 158 .
12 6 18
36. (a) Let A = Coke and B = Diet Coke. Then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) =    0.6 .
30 30 30
(b) A = lime seltzer (count in A is 4) and B = seltzer (count in B is 12). P(A|B) = 4/12 = 1/3.

37. (a) In this case, order matters since we wish to arrange the books, hence we use permutations. We can view this
in a couple of ways. First, simply as 10 P5  30, 240 . Alternatively we can reason this out and say that 10 possible
books can go in the first spot, 9 possible books in the second spot, 8 books in the third spot, etc. to get 10 × 9 × 8 × 7
× 6 = 30,240.

(b) In this case we want to select five of the 10 books but order doesn’t matter, hence we use combinations to
get 10 C5  252 .

38. (a) Using first letters to represent the names, the possible choices are AB, AC, AD, AE, BC, BD, BE, CD, CE,
DE.
(b) There are 10 choices, so each has probability 101  0.1, or 10%
(c) Four choices include Abby, so the probability is 4
10
 52  0.4, or 40%
236 Chapter 8 Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

(d) Three choices qualify, so the probability is 3

10
 0.3, or 30%

39. (a) 2  2  2  2  2  2  2  2  2  2  210  1024

2 1
(b) 
1024 512
52! 52! 52  51
40. C2     1326
2! 52  2 ! 2!50! 2 1
52

41. (a) There are 36  36  36  363  46,656 different codes. The probability of no x is as follows:
35  35  35 42,875
  0.919
46,656 46,656

26  26  26 17,576 2197
(b) The probability of no digits is    0.377.
46,656 46,656 5832

42. (a) It is not enough information because you don’t know the order of the digits to use. It could be 3–5–8, 3–8–
5, 5–3–8, 5–8–3, 8–3–5, or 8–5–3.
(b) Because only one ordering is correct, the probability of opening the lock in one try is 16 .
(c) Because order does matter in a “combination lock,” it is more accurately called a “permutation lock.”
(Note: You may consider discussion of a code such as 7–7–3, which by definition permutations do not
allow repetition.)

43. (a) The possibilities are aps, asp, pas, psa, sap, spa.
(b) asp, pas, sap, and spa are English words.
(c) The probability is 64  23  0.667. The answer can also be expressed as exactly 66 32 % or approximately
66.7%.

44. There would be 117  2 117 1  1114  2 1  759,499,667,166,482 possible versions. This is approximately
760 trillion possible versions.

45. (a) There are four possible royal flush hands.

52! 52! 52  51 50  49  48
(b) There are 52 C5     2,598,960 possible five-card hands.
5! 52  5! 5!47! 5  4  3  2 1
4 1
(c) The probability would be  or approximately 0.00000154.
2,598,960 649,740

46. The number of orders would be 39. Additional responses will vary although it should be noted that this is an
extremely large number.

47. Because there are 30 printers and 7 are to be randomly chosen (note that order doesn’t matter), there are
30 C7  2,035,800 total ways to choose these printers. We now need to know in how many ways this sample
can consist of exactly 4 inkjet and 3 laser printers. There are a total of 20 inkjets and we wish to select 4. This
can be done in 20 C4  4845 ways. Similarly, we have 10 laser printers and want 3 of them; hence there are

10 C3  120 ways. To find the total number of ways to get 4 inkjet and 3 laser, we multiply the above to get
4,845 × 120 = 581,400. Therefore the probability is 581,400 / 2,035,800 ≈ 0.286 or about 28.6%.

48. (a) The curve is on or above the horizontal axis. The area under the curve is the area of the triangle: area =

(1/2)(2)(1) = 1.
Instructor’s Guide with Solutions 237

(b) This probability is the area of the shaded triangle below: (1/2)(1)(1/2) = 1/4.

(c) 1 – 1/4 = 3/4.

49. (a) The area is 1

2  base  height  1
2  2 1  1.

(b) Probability 1
2
by symmetry or finding the area, 1
2
 base  height  1
2 11  12

(c) The area representing this event is  12  0.50.5  0.125.

50.

51. The probability would be 150

600  14  0.25.

52. (a) The probability of paying $25 is 15

60
 14 . The probability of paying $0 is 45
60
 34 .

(b) The expected value of the money you would have to pay is 1
4  25  34  0  254  $6.25.

53. The mean is as follows:

   0  0.01  1 0.05   2  0.30    3 0.43   4  0.21
 0  0.05  0.60  1.29  0.84  2.78
238 Chapter 8 Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

The variance is as follows:

 2   0  2.78   0.01  1  2.78   0.05    2  2.78  0.30   3  2.78  0.43    4  2.78  0.21
2 2 2 2 2

  2.78   0.01   1.78   0.05    0.78   0.30    0.22  0.43   1.22  0.21
2 2 2 2 2

  7.7284  0.01   3.1684  0.05    0.6084  0.30   0.0484 0.43   1.4884  0.21
 0.077284  0.15842  0.18252  0.020812  0.312564
 0.7516
Thus, the standard deviation is   0.7516  0.8669.

54. The mean intelligence is calculated as follows:

   3  161    4   162    5  163    6   164    7   163   8  162    9   161 

 163  168  16
15
 16
24
 16
21
 16
16
 169  16
96
 6,

as the symmetry of the model demands.

55. The mean for owner-occupied units is   1 0.000   2 0.001    10 0.047   6.248. For rented units,
  1 0.011   2 0.027     10 0.005  4.321.

56. (a) For “nonword errors,” we have the following:

   0  0.1  1 0.2    2  0.3   3 0.3   4  0.1
 0  0.2  0.6  0.9  0.4  2.1

(b) For “word errors,” we have the following:

   0 0.4   1 0.3   2  0.2    3 0.1  0  0.3  0.4  0.3  1

(c) The models show that there are likely to be fewer word errors than nonword errors on average, and the
smaller mean number of word errors describes this fact.

57. (a)–(b) Both models have mean 1, because both density curves are symmetric about 1.

58. Answers will vary.

Selling 12 policies collects just $3000 plus costs and profit. One loss, though unlikely, would be catastrophic. If
the company sells thousands of policies, the law of large numbers says that its mean payout per policy will be
very close to the average loss of $250. It gets to keep its costs and profit.

59. Because    0 0.85   200 0.15  0  30  30, the breakeven price would be $30 for the consumer.
Instructor’s Guide with Solutions 239

12
60. (a) Twelve of the 38 slots win, so the probability of winning is 38 . The probability model is as follows:

Outcome Win $2 Lose $1

Probability 12
38
26
38

(b) Joe gains $2 if he wins and otherwise loses $1. So, the mean is the following;
   2   12
38    1  38   38    38    38  $0.053 (a loss of 5.3 cents)
26 24 26 2

(This is an average loss of 5.3 cents per game, which is the same as the mean for bets on red or black in
Example 22.)

The variance is as follows:

 2   0.053  1238    1   0.053  3826    2.053  1238    0.947   3826 
2 2 2 2

  4.214809   1238    0.896809   38 

26

 50.577708
38  23.317034
38  73.894742
38  1.9446

The standard deviation is 1.9446  1.394.

(c) The law of large numbers says that in the long run Joe will lose an average of close to 5.3 cents per bet.
61. A net prize would be what you have after expenses (cost to play, taxes, other fees, etc.). In this exercise, prizes
are given as “net” prizes, so it is understood that they include the cost to play the game. The probability of
receiving a prize is as follows:
1 1 1 3
  
10, 000, 000 10, 000 1, 000 100
1 1000 10, 000 300, 000 311, 001
    
10, 000, 000 10, 000, 000 10, 000, 000 10, 000, 000 10, 000, 000
311, 001 9,688,999
Thus, the probability of not receiving a prize is 1   .
10, 000, 000 10, 000, 000
 1  1 1 3 9,688,999
  1, 000, 000     1000   100   4   1
 10, 000, 000  10, 000 1000 100 10, 000, 000
1 1 1 12 9,688,999
      1
10 10 10 100 10, 000, 000
3 12 9,688,999
  
10 100 10, 000, 000
We now have
42 9,688,999
 
100 10, 000, 000
4, 200, 000 9,688,999
 
10, 000, 000 10, 000, 000
5,488,999
  0.55
10,000,000
So approximately $0.45 “comes back” in prizes on the $1 ticket.
Another approach to this exercise is to make the prize a gross prize by adding back in the cost of play. By doing
so, you need to add only four terms but the ease of calculation is reduced.
240 Chapter 8 Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

 1  1 1 3
  1,000,001    1001  101   5
 10,000,000  10,000 1000 100
1,000,001 1,001,000 1,010,000 1,500,000
   
10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000
4,511,001
  0.45
10,000,000
Again, approximately $0.45 “comes back” in prizes on the $1 ticket.

62. (a) The expected value of the proportion of the original cake you will get will be as follows:
 12   13    12   32   16  62  63  12
(b) The expected value of the proportion of the original cake you will get will be as follows:
 12   p    12  1  p   2p  12p  p 12 p  12
63. (a) The expected value on a single question is   1       
1
5
4
5
1
4
1
5
 15  0. Thus, random guessing makes
no difference.
(b) The expected value on a single question is now  14  1   34    14   14  163  164  163  161 . Thus, guessing
will increase your score on average.

64. (a) The expected number of 500-year floods would be two in a 1000-year period.
(b) The city council representative falsely assumed that an event with a 1
500
chance each year can’t happen
more than once in 500 years. The truth is that each year is independent from the past history and has no
1
memory of when the last flood had occurred in previous years. Each year has its own 500 chance
of a flood occurring.

65. Sample means x have a sampling distribution close to normal with mean   0.15 and standard deviation
 0.4 0.4
   0.02. Therefore, 95% of all samples have an x between
n 400 20
0.15  2  0.02   0.15  0.04  0.11 and 0.15  2  0.02   0.15  0.04  0.19. The interval is (0.11, 0.19).

66. (a) The mean is 281, so the probability of a higher score is about 0.5. A score of 316 is one standard deviation
above the mean, so by the 68 part of the 68–95–99.7 rule the probability of a higher score is half of 0.32, or
0.16.
 35 35
(b) The average score of n  4 students has mean 281 and standard deviation    17.5. The
n 4 2
probability of an average score higher than 281 is still 0.5 Because 316 is now two standard deviations
above the mean, the 95 part of the 68–95–99.7 rule says that the probability of a higher average score is
0.025.
 10
67. (a) The standard deviation of the average measurement is   5.77 mg.
n 3

(b) To cut the standard deviation in half (from 10 mg to 5 mg), we need n  4 measurements because is
n
 
then  . Averages of several measurements are less variable than individual measurements, so an
4 2
average is more likely to give about the same result each time.
Instructor’s Guide with Solutions 241

68. The average winnings per bet has mean   0.053 for any number of bets. The standard deviation of the
1.394
average winnings is .
n
1.394 1.394
(a) After 100 bets,   0.1394. Thus, the spread of average winnings is as follows:
100 10
0.053  3  0.1394   0.053  0.4182  0.4712
to
0.053  3  0.1394   0.053  0.4182  0.3652
The interval, rounded to three decimal places, is ( 0.471 , 0.365).

1.394
(b) After 1,000 bets,  0.0441. Thus, the spread of average winnings is as follows:
1000
0.053  3  0.0441  0.053  0.1323  0.1853
to
0.053  3  0.0441  0.053  0.1323  0.0793
The interval, rounded to three decimal places, is ( 0.185 , 0.079).

69. (a) Sketch a normal curve and mark the center at 4600 and the change-of-curvature points at 4,590 and 4,610.
The curve will extend from about 4,570 to 4,630. This is the curve for one measurement. The mean of n = 3
measurements has mean  = 4,600 mg and standard deviation 5.77 mg. Mark points about 5.77 above and
below 4600 and sketch a second curve.

(b) Use the 95 part of the 68–95–99.7 rule with   10.

4600  2 10  4600  20  4580 to 4600  2 10   4600  20  4620
The interval is (4,580; 4,620).
(c) Now the standard deviation is 5.77, so we have the following:

4600  2 5.77   4600  11.54  4588.46 to 4600  2  5.77   4600  11.54  4611.54

The interval is (4588.46, 4611.54).

70. The mean intelligence (from Exercise 54) is   6. The variance is as follows:

 2  3  6  161    4  6   162   5  6   163   6  6   164   7  6   163   8  6   162   9  6   161 

2 2 2 2 2 2 2

  3  161    2   162    1  163    0   164   1  163    2   162    3  161 
2 2 2 2 2 2 2

  9   161    4   162   1  163    0   164   1  163    4   162    9   161 

 169  168  163  160  163  168  169  40
16  2.5
242 Chapter 8 Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

Thus,   2.5  1.58. By the Central Limit Theorem, the average score in 100 games is approximately normal
1.58 1.58
with mean 6 and standard deviation   0.158. Therefore, the middle 68% of average scores lie
100 10
within one standard deviation of the mean as follows:

6  0.158  5.842 to 6  0.158  6.158

The interval is (5.842, 6.158).

71.

(a) Because 26.2 is one standard deviation above the mean, the probability is about 0.16.

 5.2 26
(b) The mean remains   21.0. The standard deviation is    1.7.
9 3 15
(c) Because 26.2  21.0  5.2  21.0  3  15
26
 is three standard deviations above the mean, the probability is
about 0.0015. (This is half of the 0.003 probability for outcomes more than three standard deviations from
the mean, using the 99.7 part of the 68–95–99.7 rule.)

72. (a) The population proportion of single-occupant vehicles is p  0.7. The sample proportion, pˆ , of single-
occupant vehicles in a random sample of n = 84 has mean p  0.7 and standard deviation
p 1  p  0.7 1  0.7  0.7  0.3 0.21
   0.0025  0.05.
n 84 84 84
Instructor’s Guide with Solutions 243

(b) Because 0.6  0.7  0.1  0.7  2  0.05 is two standard deviations below the mean, the probability is 0.975.


73. High. Since the standard deviation for a sampling distribution is , smaller schools will have a
n
smaller value for n. This will result in more variable means and therefore will be overrepresented in the list
of very highest and very lowest performers.

74. (a) n Ck  n Cn  k , since n Ck  n!

k ! n  k  !
and n Cn  k   n  k ! nn!  n  k !   n  k !nn! n  k !   n nk!!k ! yield the same results.

(b) 0 C0  0!
0! 0  0!
1

1 C0  1!
0!1 0!
 1, 1 C1  1!11!1!  1

2 C0  2!
0! 2  0!
 1, 2 C1  1! 22!1!  2, 2 C2  2!
2! 2  2!
1

3 C0  3!
0! 3 0!
 1, 3 C1  1!33!1!  3, 3 C2  3!
2! 3 2 !
 3, 3 C3  3!33!3!  1

4 C0  0! 44!0!  1, 4 C1  1! 44!1!  4, 4 C2  4!

2! 4  2 !
 6, 4 C3  3! 44!3!  4, 4 C4  4!
4! 4  4!
1

The numbers generated in this triangular pattern are the same as those in Pascal’s Triangle.

75. (a) There are 26 10 10  26  26  26  45,697,600 different license plates of this form.
(b) There are 26 10 10  2600 plates ending in AAA, because that leaves only the first three characters free.
2600
(c) The probability is  0.0000569.
45,697,600

76. (a) There are only 100 plates like this, because Jerry has specified all four letters exactly. The probability is
100
 0.0000022.
45,697,600
(b) The number of possible plates that meet Jerry's new specification is as follows:
4 10 10  4  4  4  25,600
25,600
The probability that he will get such a plate is  0.00056.
45,697,600

77. (a) The probability is 0.10  0.08  0.18.

(b) The complement to the event of working out at least one day is working out no days. Thus, using the
complement rule, the desired probability is 1  0.61  0.39.

78. The mean is as follows:

244 Chapter 8 Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

   0  0.61  1 0.17    2  0.10    3 0.08  4  0.04 

 0  0.17  0.20  0.24  0.16  0.77 day

As you interview more and more people, the average number of days, x , that these people work out will get
closer and closer to 0.77 (less than one day).

79. (a) The variance is as follows:

 2   0  0.77   0.61  1  0.77   0.17    2  0.77   0.10   3  0.77   0.08   4  0.77   0.04 
2 2 2 2 2

  0.77   0.61   0.23  0.17   1.23   0.10    2.23   0.08  3.23  0.04 
2 2 2 2 2

  0.5929  0.61   0.0529  0.17   1.5129  0.10    4.9729  0.08  10.4329  0.04 
 0.361669  0.008993  0.15129  0.397832  0.417316
 1.3371
Thus, the standard deviation is   1.3371  1.156 days.
(b) The mean, x , of n = 100 observations has mean   0.77 and standard deviation
 1.156 1.156
   0.1156.
n 100 10
The Central Limit Theorem says that the sampling distribution of x is approximately normal with this
mean and standard deviation. The 95 part of the 68-95-99.7 rule says that with probability 0.95, values of
x lie between
0.77  2  0.1156  0.77  0.2312  0.5388  0.54 day
and
0.77  2  0.1156  0.77  0.2312  1.0012  1.00 day.

The interval is (0.54, 1.00).

80. Because 6  385    1  38

33
  303833   383 , the expected value of this bet is $ 383  $0.079 or a loss of about 7.9
cents, on average, per game. For this gambler, this “5-number” bet is worse than the bet on red.

81. (a) Because there are only 7 days in the week and 10 people are chosen at random, the probability that there is
a match is 100% (certainty).
(b) The complement to the event of at least one match in the day of the month these 10 people were born is no
match in the day of the month these 10 people were born. With the assumption of 31 days in a month, the
probability we seek is as follows:
1   30
31    31    31   1  3110  1  0.196  0.804 or approximately 80%
29 22 31 P10

(c) The complement to the event of at least one match in the day of the year these 10 people were born is no
match in the day of the year these 10 people were born. With the assumption of 365 days in a year, the
probability we seek is as follows:
1   364
365    365    365   1  36510  1  0.883  0.117 or approximately 12%
363 355 365 P10

82. Let L be the event that a person has Lyme disease and LC the event that a person does not have Lyme disease.

(a) We are told that P(L) = 0.005. Therefore, P(LC) = 0.995. Details about the ELISA test are P(+|L) = 0.937, P(-|L)

= 0.063|L, P(+|LC) = 0.06, and P(-|LC) = 0.94. P( L and +)  (0.005)(0.937)  0.004685 ;

Instructor’s Guide with Solutions 245

P( LC and +)  (0.995)(0.06)  0.0597 ; P()  P( L and )  P( LC and )  0.064385 ;

P( L | )  P( L and ) / P()  0.004685 / 0.064385  0.073 .

In the long run, only 7.3% of those testing positive for Lyme disease have the disease.

(b) If we change P(L) = 0.10 and P(LC) = 0.9. Then

P( L | )  (0.10)(0.937) / [(0.10)(0.937)  (0.90)(0.06)]  0.634 . In the long run, a little over 63% of

those who go for Lyme disease testing and test positive actually have the disease.
Solution Manual for For All Practical Purposes: Mathematical Literacy in Today’s World Ten

246 Chapter 8 Probability: The Mathematics of Chance

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