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    Describing History of Independent India.

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    India Decides - Elections 1952-1995 by David Butler, Ashok Lahiri, Prannoy Roy - Books & Things (1995)

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    INDIA DECIDES ELECTIONS 1952-1995 DAVID BULTER ASHOK LAHIRI PRANNOY ROY GEAR JQ 292 Bet 109s ISBN 81-900612-0-8 © David Butler, Ashok Lahiri and Prannoy Roy 1995 First Published 1989; updated and revised for second edition 1991 and third edition 1995. {Al rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form, by mimeograph or any ‘other means, without express permission in writing from the publishers. Published by Books & Things. ‘W-I7, Greater Kailash-1, New Delhi-110 048. ‘Typeset & Printed at Intemational Print-O-Pac Lid., New Delhi. Bosh Fn a : vii 1. Peephology and India 2. Voters and Constituencies. 3. Parties and Symbols 4. Votes and Seats... 5. Polls and Forecasting PART I: STATISTICS 6. The Presidency . 7. The Rajya Sabha 8. The Lok Sabha 9. Lok Sabha Results : 1982 : First General Election . 1957 : Second General Election 1962 : Third General Election. 1967 : Fourth General Election 1971: Fifth General Election 1977 : Sixth General Election . 1980 : Seventh General Election. 1984 : Eighth General Election 1989 : Ninth General Election. 1991 : Tenth General Election. 10, Panty Votes in Each State 1952-1991 ‘Congress . 2 HO Janata Party and Janata Dal... a seeeeeees m2 Bharatiya Janata Party and ‘Bharatiya Jan Sangh : na ‘Communist Party of India . : : 116 ‘Communist Party of India (Marxist)... fetes ve WB Socialists (PSP, SOC, and KMPP) : 120 11. Census Data by State <2... cece ees ececeeestseeesestteeeneseesssene 122 ‘Aen and Population «22.2.2. ceeseeeeeeeeseceseseeeeeeeeeseeeeesesees 123 Population : Age, Sex and Literacy 126 ‘The Changing Population seeienene teereeserereee IS Castes and Religion. .. : : toceeeeeesees 126 Health and Communication : 127 Basic Economic Indicators «2.2.2 ....20sceeseseeeeee cescttees 128 Literacy and the Medi... ceeetteteteeteeeeeeseereees 129 12 Deo Consincy Rena with Sumer Stae Teles coe 132 ‘Andhra Pradesh... : cores feceee BBB 14s : 182 - 3S 327 329 331 333 335 340 fotcetesseseseeneene 342 Extinet States... 34s Unmatched Constituencies... vettetrtesrerereeeres 346 13, By-Election Results . coeteetteeeeesees 233 14. Close Contests ... cesceteteteteeeeneae + 364 15, Deposits Forfeited + 366 PART III : APPENDICES L List of Symbols 368 List of Panties... cesses BB UL. Index of Constituencies cesses beeen : 381 IV. Bibliography... 399 ‘The Authors . Pieture Credits Preface ‘This book is an updated version of the second edition of India Decides. While the structure and contents remain essen tially the same, the data has been brought up-to-date through ‘out the book - as far as possible till the end of 1995. The results of the 1991 General Elections and State Elections till Decem- ber 1995 have been added and the evens since then have been briefly described, The aim of this update isto provide the reader with the basic facts that will act asa foundation forthe next [Lok Sabha elections. To analyse any election its necessary to setit against the past. The purpose ofthis book is to make that easy. It presents an organised collection of election data which ‘makes the mass of statistics more intelligible and paves the ‘way for scientific analysis. ‘This is far from being the first collection of Lok Sabha lection statistics. The Election Commission has produced complete figures after each election which V.B. Singh and ‘Shankar Bose have consolidated into two volume of national results and five invaluable volumes of Vidhan Sabha votes, In 1968, R.Chandidas andE.W. Morehouse a produced India Votes in 1971 India Votes two. Myron weiner has provided meticulous analysis in India a the Polls: The Parliamentary elections of 1977 and India atthe Polls, 1980 and R.P. Bhalla, Secretary, the Election Commission, published Elections in Inia, 1973, We have drawn on all these works in the pages that follow. (Our aim has been to offer in a compact form, a comprehensive centre history of India as an independent democracy. We also provide a reasonably comprehensive bibliography of research on Indian elections. ‘This book has is origin in the challenge that Ashok Lahiri and Prannoy Roy saw in the elections of 197 and 1980. In 1981 David Butler joined the team to bring his experience of ‘lection analysis in Britain and elsewhere to help in the work. In 1984 we published A Compendium of Indian Elections. In 1989 we prepared a sequel which drew heavily onthe earlier volume but was completely rewritten, with more statistics pre- sented in afresh fashion, This was revised again in 1991. The present book is largely a reprint ofthe 1991 edition bot it has been fully updated to cover the 1991 General Election and sub- sequent by-elections and state elections. It also contains new material on the circumstances of pat elections and on opinion polling—panculaly exit pol ‘Apart from our basic debt tothe Election Commission for its statistics, we must thank many people. Above all Namrata Gupta, whose input has been virtually enough tobe named asa fourth author and in any case without whom this book would never have been completed. We are deeply grateful to Dorab ‘Sopariwala for reading through an earlier draft ~ all remaining errors are of course our responsibility. We are also grateful 10 Lolita Ghose who worked on earlier editions, Nitin Malik for his help with this edition and K. Seetharaman, Ajay Madhok and Shivani Jajodia for computer work done on earlier editions ‘which were useful in the preparation ofthis book. David Buster Oxford Ashok Kumar Lahiri Washington, D.C. Prannoy Roy New Delhi PART I ISSUES 1 Psephology and India dia enjoys elections. She stands out as not only the largest but a triumphant example of democracy. India and her politicians have many failings but no ‘one can doubt the success of the democratic process. In the 44 years since the frst elections, there have been ten general elections and over 300 state contests. Many ‘countries can only change goversments by coups or revolutions. But in India, both at the state level and at the centre, governments. are changed or confirmed by the people as a whole. In 1977 the Indian electorate threw out one government. In 1980 they decided that it should come back. In 1984, at a time of crisis, they gave an emphatic mandate toa new leader. In 1989 they opted for change. In 1991 they reverted narrowly to the traditional dominance of the Congress. It looks as though they will be soon asked to decide again by 1996 or cartier. To explain why elections produce particular ‘outcomes is a difficult, pethaps an impossible task. But it certainly cannot be done without knowing what the outcomes were. That isthe prime objective of this book. We have tried to record in a fashion that is as compact yet as comprehensive as possible how votes ‘were cast in each of India’s general elections, and to Set out other information relevant to state and national politics. We are offering the raw material with which others can either build analyses of the nature of Indian elections or merely check on past facts. ‘We also attempt to use the 1991 elections results as 4 basis for interpreting trends for the neat election in terms of the rules of the game, the way in which ‘opinion polls are conducted, and the relation between seats and votes. The Election Commission has published definitive figures for each election but they are not arranged in a ‘compact, easily accessible way and they have not been put together in sequence so that the continuous story fof the last fony years can be explored. Joumalists and scholars have prepared some useful compilations but not in a fashion that fully realises their potential as a means of illuminating the evolution of the Indian political system. Psephology, the formal study of elections, is only a litle older than independent India. Over the last two ‘generations there have been studies in America (aotably at Columbia University and at the University of Michigan)’, and in Britain (notably at Nuffield College. Oxford and the University of Essex), which, together with a growing body of work by opinion pollsters, have developed new techniques for looking at voting behaviour. They have shown in diverse ways hhow much can be leamt by exploring elections - as pparts of the political process, or as key moments it history, or as aspects of mass psychology. And in the last thirty years there has been some valuable research ‘completed on Indian voting, nationally and locally. It ranges from the pioneer work of W. H. Morts-Jones, 1.0. Field and Myron Wiener to more specialised studies such as those by A. H. Somjee, V. Siriskar, B. ‘Ahmed, and S. Eldersveld, as well as by E.P.W. De Costa and others who have ventured into opinion polling. 1 See P.Lazarfela 311944) and A Campbell e 3 (1960), Sse D. Butler and D. Kavanagh (1992). Krewe and B. Sarivik (1983) and A. Heath etal, (1985 and 1990). 2-/ INDIA DECIDES This book has its roots in the belief that there are pattems to be found in the inchoate mass of Indian voting figures. Great opportunities become apparent conce the data have been computerised. It is possible to rearrange the results of the ten Lok Sabha elections to show what has happened to each party in a given state or in a given constituency. It is possible to measure the volatility or the stability of voting in different parts of the country or different constituencies. It is possible to investigate the impact of a change of candidates, noting how the religion the caste, or the sex of a party's nominee affects its support. It is possible to see how far by-elections have foreshadowed the outcome of the subsequent general election. It is possible to assess the impact of boundary changes and the extent of malapportionment. It is possible to develop measures of electoral change and to explore the all-important relation between votes cast and seats won and the extent to which this varies with the number of parties in opposition. And when, in due course, the election data have been fully linked to census findings, there is much to be revealed about the relationship between pattems of voting and the social and economic characteristics of different regions and communities. The collection and interpretation of election results is always a tricky business, even where official figures are efficiently presented. Constituency boundaries ‘change; parties split and rearrange themselves: the same candidaie appears under different names. In this book ‘much effort has gone into manual as well as machine validation of the data. No reference work on elections is ever immaculate since a few votes are always, miscounted, mistransmitted, or misprinted, and the interpretation of the figures is necessarily open to dispute. We believe, however, that these pages offer the most comprehensive and conveniently arranged. collection of Indian national election results that has yet been attempted. We try to explain what we have ‘done and what we have not done with the figures. To give one example, we have not sorted out all the statistical confusion that flowed from the existence of ‘two and three-member seats in 1952 and 1957 and we have not tried to give estimates for the effects of boundary changes. These and other problems are discussed in subsequent chapters. “Elections at work : the great equaliser i ‘One matter merits more than a technical explanation. ‘The problem with all analysis of elections is that it ultimately rests on the votes of individuals. Votes are, ‘almost necessarily. treated as equal expressions of support, even though a vote means very different things to different people. To some it is a resounding statement of faith in a party or an individual; to others it is a marginal, almost random choice, a hesitant decision about the lesser evil. Voting statistics do not have intensity measurements attached to them. Yet, just as a relationship can range from a passionate love- affair to a casual acquaintance, so a vote can signify powerful convictions or near apathy. When one builds ‘great edifices of explanation on the statistics of an election result, one should remember how varied in quality are the bricks that one is using. ‘A traditional weakness in election commentary all over the world is the tendency to focus on absolute figures rather than on percentages. An MP may boast that his vote or his majority has gone up when, because the size of the electorate has increased, it has actually fallen as a share of the total vote’. If one is to detect trends in mass behaviour, it is important to study changes in percentages and not absolute numbers. ‘There is also a tendency in most election predictions to hedge towards the tiddle, to predict a close result. ‘Typical headlines before an election are: “neck and neck” or “a close fight". A commentator who picks the ‘wrong winner can explain ‘Well, I always said it could 0 cither way’, In fact, to say that a particular party will win by a majority of 20,000 when it proves to be 200,000 is a much greater error than to say that it will ‘win by 20,000 when it loses by 20,000. Although, in politics, victory or defeat may be the only thing that counts, the accuracy of a prediction should be assessed in terms of the margin of error either in number of seals oF vote percentages. ‘The courage to predict landslides is rare. Yet with the single-member first-past-the-post voting system that 3 One simple example in which the climate sine goes wp macs the point: PSEPHOLOGY AND INDIA / 3 ‘we have in India, landslides are atleast as common as close results, if not more so. Seven of the ten Lok ‘Sabha elections have been won by large majorities; ‘only the 1967, 1989 and 1991 contests were close. In 1989, although the overall result was a narrow victory, it was the combination of two opposing landslides. The landslide for the Congress in the south counteracted the landslide against the Congress in the north. In 1991 “almost the opposite happened: Congress lost in the North but swept the southem states. Even more disaggregated than this north-south divide, landslides seem to occur today more at the state-level. Bihar may vote ‘overwhelmingly for one party, while its neighbours, Untar Pradesh, West Bengal or Orissa may vote for some other parties. Nevertheless the basic tendency of landslides rather than close results remains, albeit at the state and not the national level today. ‘The main reason for landslides is that al! first past- the-post systems, including the one used in India, exaggerate a movement in votes’ into a far larger movement in seats. Once a party crosses a particular threshold in votes (somewhere in the region of 30% to 35%) it can move from famine to feast in seats by climbing just a few percentage points in popular support. ‘These differences in the issues and politics at the state levels makes the analysis somewhat more dificult. Indian election when compared with those of, for ‘example, Britain or Australia. The electorate is much larger and much more diverse. There are several significant regional parties and there are many more national partes. The parties of new-bom democratic India took some time to settle down. It is indeed arguable that they have never settled down. And the Indian electorate has been more volatile than others. Even the most stable of votes, that for Congress, has ranged from 35 per cent to 49 per cent. And its volatility appears to have increased over the last decade. No other party (except the Communist Party of India) has Biectorate Candidate A Candidate B Margin of| % Margin of ‘ze Vietory Vietory Fit Election ‘50,000 30,000 (60%) 20,000 (40%) 10,000 20% Second Election —_1,00,000 57,000(57%) 43,000 (43%) 14,000 ae CHANGE ++30,000 +2700 23,000 ++4,000 oe ‘While Candidate Aas won 27,000 move vos, and his margia of victory has gone up by 4000 he has actually done worse in the second election The percentage of ves he has won has gone down by 34% and his margin of victory has dropped by 6%. 4/7 INDIA DECIDES ‘contested each of the ten national elections but, of those that have contested two or more elections, all, except the Communist Party of India(Marxist), have seen their vote at least doubled or halved. It_is not easy to gather evidence about a sub- continent, The diversity of India and the cost of large- scale research has meant that macro-studies of voting behaviour have, on the whole, been shunned. Scholars have focused on voting at the state level and below. Some of the more interesting work has been done on individual villages* bot the most ambitious statistical exercise has probably been that of Biplab Dasgupta and W.H. Morris-Jones, analysing figures on a nationwide scale’ Micro-analysis, looking at voting in small areas, invaluable. We hope that this volume makes readily available data which will help to set local observations in a wider context, Macro-analysis on a nationwide scale is, inevitably, susceptible to greater risks of error as the observer attempts to paint an overall picture and to compare phenomena that may not be altogether ‘comparable. But macro-analysis is worth tying. ‘The votes of millions provide the input of elections. ‘The output is the number of parliamentary seats won by each of the parties. The formulae which explain how votes are tumed into seats are almost as numerous as democracies, Every proportional system has its own variations and even simple first-past-the-post systems, ike those of India and Britain, operate very differently in different countries. Even within the same country they can produce different results at different points in time (as chapter 4 shows). But every system has some regularities which can be measured. In India, as in other countries, it is possible, as soon as the count begins and a few results are declared, to guess fairly accurately at the final outcome. This is not because the country behaves uniformly ~ it plainly does not - but because there is a pattem to the scatter of results and because the deviant cases tend to cancel each other out, The patter can be found in these pages by those who have the patience to look for it. India, after nearly fifty years, has remained one nation, living more or less peaceably under an elected central government in Delhi. Some commentators ‘would argue that the country's continued cohesion, in defiance of many gloomy forecasts, is to be attributed tohher electoral system which, apart from four years, 4 SeeAH. Somjee, (1959), VM. Sirskar. (1965) and B & M. Ganguly. (1975). 5 SeeB, Dasgupta and WH. Morris Jones, (1976) has given her single-party majority governments. This system, unlike proportional representation, tends to produce large majorities and stable governments. The Congress party has never won 50 per cent of the vote; bat it has won more than 50 per cent of the seats in 7 out of 8 times that it has come to power. It has ruled India for nine-tenths of her history, sparing the country the political instability that might have come from coalition goverment with many parties, some of them exclusively regional or concemed with sectional or communal interests, producing crisis after crisis as they battled for power. Other commentators, however, are critical of an electoral system which, for long periods, seemed to present one party witha freehold on office; they blame it for many of the nation's “ills. Proportional Tepresentation, which gives each party its fair number of seats but generally results in coalition governments, ‘might have denied Indig the benefits that flow from a stable, one-party govemment; but it can be argued that it would have forced politicians to compromise their differences, saving the country from some arbitrary centralism and providing Indian democracy with a base that was ‘more generally acceptable and responsive, ‘This book makes no attempt to settle such arguments. But it does show how the electoral system works and in what conditions it can be relied upon to produce clear one-party majorities. Most of these pages consist of an unvamished presentation of facts. However, facts are only the bricks and mortar of understanding. Although buildings ‘cannot be put up without them, an architect is needed to give shape to the edifice. The analyses that might be based on the statistics set out in these pages can only bbe sketched here. These figures are just a beginning. ‘This book contains only limited data on voting in state assemblies. It does not link votes 10 actual political events. It offers the “What?” of the electoral record; it does not deal withthe ‘Why? The interested reader will find references to research done on Indian clectoral behaviour in our comprehensive bibliography: within the volumes listed there are some insightful answers to some of the “Why's” ‘This is primarily a reference work, full of statistics. But elections are political events, involving {© There sone area that we do not have to apologise for offering ‘oanalysis referenda As fra election studies go, India along ‘with Japan, Helland, Israel and the Urited States are among the few established democracies thal have never had a nationwide refered, tthe behaviour of politicians and of ordinary people, as ‘well as of communications media and pressure groups. ‘We do not talk here about India's statesmen or her Pasty organisations and we scarcely discuss political strategy or campaign tactics. We do not deal with electoral administration or the laws regulating ‘campaigning. We do not discuss how candidates are selected or how they raise their money. We do not ‘consider the role of advertising or of the press or of broadcasting locally or centrally. Yet these are increasingly central to the electoral process. It could be ‘argued that Rajiv Gandhi initiated the trend of American- style clectionecring. It is now common to employ the arts of public relations, opinion polling and new techniques of communication. Perhaps the biggest ‘change will be the impact of satelite television and ‘other devices in the years to come. All that we do here is to record and analyse the seats and the votes which ‘constinate the end-product or target of all electoral activity (and of most political activity). Every election is potential taming point in history and deserves a full study as a contemporary event, an opportunity to observe politicians and party ‘organisations at full stretch, to examine the influence ‘of press and broadcasting, to assess the involvement of ordinary citizens. The contestants reveal themselves as they explain away the past and look forward to the future. Elections arc exciting and important contemporary events. The authors of a volume that is so heavily concemed with numbers should make plain that the numbers are primarily important for the human reality behind them. At one level, politicians are engaged in a continuous struggle for electoral support, at the other extreme, each citizen possesses a vote 10 sive or withhold as he chooses. We hope that others will use the data provided here to give substance to their conclusions about the behaviour of those who lead and those who are led. One tool of research that has only recently ‘been exploited in India isthe opinion poll. The diversity of the country and the difficulty of framing questions that are equally meaningful to different linguistic and ‘communal groups, as well as the sheer cost, has held back its development. It isa technique that has proved valuable elsewhere and that can reveal not only how far men and women, old and young, rich and poor, vote differently, but also how votes correlate with opinions about issues. Opinion polls get most publicity when used by the media for forecasting election results. But academic sample surveys, asking an elaborate battery of PSEPHOLOGY AND INDIA / § questions about the electors background and attitudes, can offer much more profound insights into the whys and the wherefores of voting, The series of studies launched in Michigan with The American Voter has provided inspiration for comparable work in a wide vatiety of countries. . This has yielded many insights into the extent to which electoral behaviour is linked to specific factors - for example, family tradition; economic experience; religion; particular regional and local influences; exposure to media; exposure to different forms of campaign persuasion; and attinudes towards immediate issues. Using panel surveys to re-interview the same person at wide intervals of time, itis possible 10 double-check on the stability of party loyalty or of Positions on issues and 10 identify the characteristics ‘and attitudes associated with vote-switching, There has been some work along these lines at the local level in India. But the skills now exist for much more to be discovered through nationwide surveys. Ireland, generation ago it used to be said that opinion polls would never work, The Irish were such charming people tha, instead of giving their real views, they would always be trying to please the interviewer ‘Now, and what would you be thinking ‘yourself”’), Similar doubts about polls are still expressed in India, and to them are added the real difficulties of conducting interviews in many languages, often with illiterate, uninformed, or merely fearful respondents, However, polls are now an established part of the Irish electoral scene and in India they are approaching that status. In 1989, they were spectacularly successful in forecasting the result. In 1991 their record was less slorious, as we show in Chapter 5. But although polls are fallible, especially in Indian conditions, itis possible to derive from sample surveys a far more accurate picture of the voting intentions and political attitudes of the Indian electorate than from any other source. But even without massive surveys a lot can be found about who voted how from the statistics that already exist. Census data can be retabulated to show the characteristics of each constituency. With relatively simple statistical techniques it is possible to draw substantial conclusions about the voting propensities of different social groups and to spot the constituencies which deviate most from the expected norm, Has. the behaviour of seats with exceptional illiteracy rates been different? Is there a significant contrast between trends in rural and urban areas? How far do Hindi-speaking states vote differently from the rest? In tackling such questions one warning is needed. Aberrant 6 1 INDIA DECIDES constituencies can be identified statistically, but the challenge they present is one that must be met by less desk based research. Correlation’s are not explanations. Behaviour that diverges from the statistical average must be examined ‘on the ground. Deviant pattems stimulate the making ‘of hypotheses, but the hypotheses still have to be tested. One of the richest areas of statistical research neglected in this volume is at the level of the state assembly. The figures for the Assembly elections since 1952 are available but no one has yet undertaken the ‘elaborate process of matching Assembly constituencies ‘with Lok Sabha constituencies, a necessary prelude to the challenge of measuring how far electoral behaviour is similar in national and state elections. In this book wwe provide only a summary of state assembly election results (see chapter 12) and not detailed results at the assembly constituency level. ‘One major reason for looking at past election results is because the future usually resembles the past. The patterns revealed in bygone contests are usually repeated. Political behaviour usually follow consistent rules. But “usually” is not “always”. Familiar modes suddenly dissolve. In 1970 a famous article showed hhow for 25 years the fluctuations in party allegiances in Britain had matched extraordinarily close to the fluctuations in unemployment.’ But at the very moment the article was published the relationship broke down, If the formula that was so accurate from 1945 to 1969 hhad held true, Mrs. Thatcher's Conservatives would have ‘won virtually no votes in 1983, instead of their biggest victory ever. There are no iron laws of politics; it is always necessary to be alert for the breaking of established moulds. In the chapters that follow we set out the basic facts and technical the considerations that are a pre-requisite to any understanding of election results, We deal in turn with constituencies, with voters, with parties, with their symbols, with the relationship between seats and ‘votes and with the problems of forecasting. After that, ‘we set out in tabular form, at national, state and ‘constituency levels. the results of Indian elections from 1952 to 1995, 7) See. Goodhart and R. Bhansali, in Poitcal Economy, Plt cal Saaies, March 1970. 2 Voters and Constituencies dia has had a system of universal adult suffrage ever since becoming a republic in 1950.' Every ‘one over 21 has been entitled to vote*in any election tothe Lok Sabha or tothe state Legislative Assemblies, the Vidhan Sabhas.' With the passing of the 62nd amendment of the Constitution in 1988, the voting age was lowered to 18. ‘The whole country is divided into 4061 Vidhan Sabha constituencies which are grouped together to form the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies.* Normally, seven assem- bly constituencies are arranged to form one Lok Sabha constituency, but this can vary from one state to another. In Utar Pradesh, for example, there are five assembly ‘constituencies to each Lok Sabha constituency ic., 85 MPs and 425 MLAs. A person who is “ordinarily resident” and registered to vote in a Vidhan Sabha con- stituency is also eligible to vote in the corresponding Lok Sabha constituency. However, not every eligible person actually votes. Some are absent from the constituency in which they are ‘ordinarily resident, or are preoccupied with work, or are unwell. Some stay away merely because of bad weather or apathy. The average voter tumout in Indian elections has been 56:6 per cent, varying from the low |. Though India became independent on 15 August. 1947. the Republic was only proclaimed and the Indian Constnation came ‘uo force on 26 January 1950, The it elections were held two years ler, 2 According to the Constitution, ‘every person who i a citizen of| India and who isnot less than twenty-one years of age on such date 28 may be fixed in that behalf by or under any Ia. and ¢ fot otherwie dsqualifid...on the ground of non-residene, tusoundnes of mindcrime ileal practic, shal bene to be registred as a woe ‘The Indian Parliament consists of two Houses: the Court of ‘utes othe Rajya Sabha, and the House ofthe People or the Lok Sabha. All the members of the Rajya Sabha, except twelve nominated by the President of Inia, reelected by the elected ‘members of the Vidhan Sabha, Size ofthe Lok Sabha 19521957 19621967 «1971-1977 «1980 «sad —sHD 19811995 No: of lected Members 49MM SID.SSIBSAZ SA] MBAS AB ‘Changes in the number of seats has occured mainly as a esl of fresh dlimiation reports. Berween 1984 and 1989, the umber of Lok Sabha seats wat raised from 542 1 543 because oe extra seat was alloted to Daman and Div once Gos became a tle with two seats 00 30 May, 1987, For simplicity throughout this book we speak of the Lok Sabha in terms only ofits popularly elected members. But Article 5371 of the Consituion authorises the President to nominate up to two members f0 ensue the representation of the Anglo-Indian ‘Community. Thus, slbough we recor the 1991 House as. having 543 elected members tn fact conuined 545 MPS including two rominaied members. 8 / INDIA DECIDES Figure 2 at Tele een ALN Figure 22 TURNOUT (%) MEN & WOMEN 1952 'S7_@ ‘697 “7177-80 "84 8991 0f 45.7 per cent in 1952 to the record turnout of 64.1 per ‘cent in 1984 ‘The upward trend in voter turnout indicates a greater involvement of the electorate as more and more voters become aware of the electoral system and understand the power of their ballot (India’s first four elections had an average tumout of 52 per cent, while in the most recent four elections the turnout has averaged 60 per cent). The turnout among men voters has consistently been higher than among women but the participation rate has improved faster among women than among men. Female tumout increased 20 percentage points from 38.8 per cent in 1957 to 57.3 per cent in 1989. But strangely the last election in 1991 recorded a drop in women’s participation to only 51.4 per cent. The male tumout only rose five percentage points from 55.8. per cent in 1957 to 61.6 per cent in 1991. In other words, the ‘gender gap in turnout (measured by the number of per- centage points by which male tumout is higher than 5 Turnout computed a the ful votes poled (valid pas invalid) as a percentage of the electorate in contested seats (the lector in enconesied seats fs omited), All trmout figeres ‘rust have a margin of enor. The electoral register can never be fully upto date and every register has its mistakes - both in duplicate ames and. in omissions. The accuracy of Indian lectoral registers reasonably high but mus vary considerably hetween different regions and locates. It should also be remembered that small proportion of people who actually pot0 the polls fal to rood valid vote, usually by inadvertence at ‘occasionally deliberately. The new system of vote identity «ands may cause problems in defining turout and electorate size. (Once the system 1s introdced, the electorate will need 0 be fined as those persons over 18 who have an nent cad female tumout) has almost halved: from male turnout being 17 percent higher in 1957 to 10.2 per cent in 1991. ‘Voter tumout in urban areas has always been higher than in rural areas — by around 6 to 8 per cent. The statewise turnout figures (Table 2.1) broadly indicate that turnout tends to be higher in the southern states and. jin West Bengal (particularly during the period when ‘West Bengal had non-Congress governments). Kerala, the state with the highest literacy rate, has traditionally hhad by far the highest tumout in the country: even in 1952, 71 per cent voted. But West Bengal's growth in participation, as the state became increasingly politi- cally volatile, has been the most dramatic: the turnout in 1991, was 76.7 per cent, the highest in any state, is almost twice the 1952 figure of 40.5 per cent More detailed information about voters — their age distribution, their literacy level, their division by caste, religion and occupation is available from the Census. ‘Some ofthis is set out ona statewise basis in chapter 11. Census data is unfortunately not published on a constitu- cency basis but only by districts, which makes it difficult to carry out any detailed socio-economic analyses of election results. Who is the Indian voter? How do the various demo- ‘graphic groupings divide among the parties? It is only ‘with the extensive use of polls that these questions can bbe answered. There is no satisfactory data on who voted how in most of India’s elections but the very large scale surveys of 1991 give a profile ofthe Indian voter for that year. India Today commissioned MARG and Prannoy Roy to conduct an exit poll in which 90,005 people were VOTERS AND CONSTITUENCIES / 9 Table 241 ‘Turnout in Lok Sabha Elections (%) sate Election Year verge 19521957 1962_—‘1967_—971_—1977_—1980— 19841989) SB ALL INDIA 47) 7 S43 SSS OS STD AL D878 Andhra Pradesh = 4.743.947 ORT. 59.1 2S. 569 OWA LAO Armachal Pradesh = — 63 GSS 92S DD ‘Assam® 17 4662893507 SAK THT 820 Bihar mS 29 410 SS 0B SY 8882 A523 Goa — = = 6455928 STB 882A Gvjart — = 580 68 555 592 SSA 579 546 560 Haryana — = = 726 os 73 os oR oe SB 674 Himachal Pradesh 253376386 S12 412592 SRT GIS 639 STH 492 Jammu & Kashi? = — = 55.2581 S79 SRT 5A 316 AT Kamara 519 28593 STA DST S7 TS SBS Kena No 66 706 «756 «S92 DTNB BHD Madhya Pradesh «45.0304 SRS ABO SKD SLD STS 852 as a83 Maharashin 524 557A AB 5993 S68 SILT 589 48B SB Manipur Sil 327653672489 OTB 857 1B TSA Meghalaya - = = 5 5 9 2 HSS 3622 Mizoram —- = = = = 9 561 “= 583 586 Hs [Nagaland —- —- = = 88 28 69 6s 47 711 68 Orissa 354 6136 B23 M63 563593 SB MH Panjab 533 550634 LL 599 76TH? 88 Rajasthan 384406524 SR 540569 SKT_ 570 85S MTD SNS Sikkim — = —- = = = 47 368 RO 16 OS ‘anil Nadu 564 49.1 8B 756 TB OTL HB TBO DBD HO ‘Tripura 7 647680 4B S10 7733S Una Pradesh «384 TB S10 SKS 450 S8A_—$00SSB S13, 49.2500 ‘West Bengal 5 486 5585061927 78H 875739 Union Terrtortes ABN Islands - = = mS m3 10 BS BR 17 OHS 142 Cundigah - - = 6s 09 64 69 689 67 S718 66 Dara & Nagar Haveli — B83 RBS BG 729 HS 1D Daman & Dit ee ee Dethi 579 STR HR HS SRT OAD HS SAS HBS BS Lakshadweep —- —- = = = 86 88 870 850 804 852 Pondicherry — -— — 9 i 736 423.7722 [No elections were held in Assam in 1989. [No elections were hel in Jammu & Kashmir in 1991. The seat wat unconverted in 1984. 6 lectons were held in February 1992, 7 months after the 10th General Elections. [Note : Andra Pradesh refers to Hyderabad in 1982 Kamaiska refers to Mysore from 1952 0 1962. Kerala refers to Travancore-Cochin in 1952. Mahurashra refers to Bombay from 1952 10 1957 “Tamil Nadu refers to Madras fom 1952 to 1962. Gon refers o Goa, Daman & Diu from 1967 to 1984. 10 / INDIA DECIDES Figure 23 [MME HicH TURNOUT (Average above 60%) LOW TURNOUT. (Average below 55%) MEGHALAYA Note: No lactone wer iin Assam 1968, J 8K 199 adn Puna actors wereld in Feb. 182 AVERAGE TURNOUT IN LOK SABHA ELECTIONS ARUNACHAL, PRADESH, VOTERS AND CONSTITUENCIES / 11 ‘Table 22 Exit Poll Results - 1991 ‘Congress BUP/ anata Dal) JanataDal CPL) Others.———‘Total__—_—Refused/ Shiv Sena__-TOP. © eM, DK Overath Exit Poll sel 326 7 46 1s 3s 100 ey ‘Actual 65 209 43. 34 a7 187 100 AGE ‘upto 21 303 392 135 30 790 50 100 as 21-30 43 345 132 4s 27 37 100 65 3140 370 306 140 49 78 37 100 64) 41-50 380 303, 152 46 67 52 100 68) sh 410 28 Ba 42 73 50 100 06) SEX Men 385 33 a7 43 a sa 100 an Women, a3 31 7 52 83 61 100 6s CASTE Brahmin 304 02 4s 23 2s 10 100 6 Kshariya 35.0 au 83 37 10 27 100 co Vaishya 2a 496 us 18 2 ta 100 68) scsT “3 BS 124 24 65 "7 100 a) ‘Bc 299 49 119 73 61 49 100 62) Oth Hindu 534 94 as 02 7 47 100 en Muslin 454 34 280 35 Bs 38 100 G8) ‘Oth Religion 27.4 300 62 Ba 04 22 100 a8) LOCATION Raral 358 412 126 23 46 35 100 70 Urban 363 28 lao 34 84 61 100 as) ‘questioned on how they had voted. Each voter's caste, sex and religion was recorded. Exit polls tend to be more accurate and the enormous sample sizes make this data 4 very useful source for analysing election results (see chapter 5). The summary results of the 1991 Exit Poll in Table 2.2 provide perhaps the most reliable indicator of the differences in voting behaviour among various ‘groups in India (see chapter 5 for more details). Their answers give a clearer indication of the sections of the ‘Population from which each party was drawing its sup- ort. One reservation should be made about the elector- ate, especially in a book that covers a period of more than forty years. The differences in electoral outcomes between one election and the next in a single consttu- ency, or in the country as a whole, are not solely due to voters changing their party allegiance. The electorate is not a fixed group of persons —it is a continually chang- ing body as electors die and new electors come of age and as electors move from one region to another or even ‘emigrate. The annual turnover through death and com- ing of age will never be less than 2 per cent. The tumover through migration varies widely but may often bbe higher than that. In the five years between two successive elections the tumover among those who ‘compose the electorate in a particular constituency may easily exceed 20 per cent. However, these factors do not usually produce much instability in voting pattems. In the absence of other information, the best way to predict how a constituency lL vote isto se how it voted last time. For most people voting is a habit and party loyalties endure. Moreover, children tend to inherit their parents and grandparents politics, so that mortality and coming of age makes less difference than might be supposed. Immigrants too, often move to an area because their new neighbours are similar people and they quickly adopt their political habits. The area itself usually stays relatively constant, exposed to much the same problems, the same mass ‘media and the same leaders in election after election. ‘Therefore, although it should be remembered that the electorate is a changing entity there is no need to worry seriously that the tumover of voters will invalidate com- parisons between the results of successive elections. 12 / INDIA DECIDES ‘The Election Commission is an independent body, established under the constitution. The Election Com- missioner has a five year term and cannot be dismissed ‘except through impeachment; his powers over the tim- ing and conduct of any election are very great’. Despite political attacks and adverse court judgements, the inde- pendence and the neutrality of the Commission has been generally recognised. On 1 October, 1993 the President signed two notifications prepared by the govemment which radically altered the structure at the top of the Election Commission. Instead of one Chief Election Commissioner, the Election Commission would be a ‘multi-member body with three Election Commissioners and the two new Election Commissioners would have equal status as the Chief Election Commissioner, ‘The Chief Election Commissioner and other Elec- tion Commisioners (Condition of Service) Amendment Ordinance 1993 was later converted into an Act of Par- liament known asthe Election Commission (Conditions of Service of Election Commissioners and Transaction of Bussiness ) Act 1994. ‘The Act severely reduces the power of the Chief Election Commissioner by stating that all decisions must be by majority vote among the three Commissioners However, on 15 November 1993, the Supreme Court did not accept the new ordinance and till further choice restored virtual control to the Chief Election Commis- sioner “to ensure smooth and effective working of the ‘Commission and also to avoid confusion”. On 4 July, 1995 a five-member bench of the Su- preme Court reversed the earlier Supreme Court order and unanimously upheld the two Presidential notifica- tions of 1993 and the 1994 Act. The judgement said “there is no room for doubt that the Election Commis- sion could be a multi-member body” and went on to say that the task of conducting elections in the country was “entrusted to the Election Commission and not to an individuar ‘The Chief Election Commissioner, TIN. Seshan, later filed a petition with the Supreme Court asking for a review of the decision by the five-member bench. The ‘Supreme Court on 14 July, 1995 decided in favour ofthe government. ‘There are now three Election Commis- 6 The Election Commissioners: 1952 Sukumar Sen 1982 RK. Tived 1958 KVK. Sundaram 1985 LVS. Per Shastri 1967 SP.Sen Verma 1990 TIN. Seshan 1972 Nagendra Singh 1985 TN. Seshan 1973 T. Swaminathan MS.Gill 1977 SL. Shakdhar G.VG. Krishnamurthy sioners of which one is the Chief. But all decisions are to be taken by majority vote. While there have been ‘other minor alterations inthe functioning of the Election Commission over the years, the 1995 Supreme Court judgement clearly is the most radical change in the decision making power of the Election Commission in its entire history. ‘This book is mainly about the computation of votes ‘and not about the forces surrounding their casting. In- dian elections are complex affairs and sometimes there is corruption, intimidation and violence. Booth-captur- ing has long been known in Bihar and in recent contests ‘thas been reported from many parts of northem India. For this and other improprieties, the Election Commis sion has made increasing use of its powers to order a repoll at particular booths or over whole districts or constituencies. In 1991 repolls were ordered in several constituencies because of booth-capturing, violence or other electoral malpractice’s. The commission has also ‘begun to stagger voting over a longer period totime with different pars of a state voting on different dates. This allows all the security forces to concentrate on one area and then move to the next area —rather than spread the forces thinly across the entire state. In the most recent assembly elections in Bihar in March 1995 voting took 3 weeks and was done in 5 phases. . The Election Commission, however, is not in a po- sition to check every abuse. The existence of electoral fraud provides one more argument against the pursuit of extreme mathematical precision in the analysis of votes. ‘The periodic alteration of constituency boundaries ‘also provides many difficulties for electoral analysts. Fundamental to any modern electoral system is the prin- ciple of equality of suffrage — a vote should have as ‘much value in one constituency as in any other. Every lected member should represent an equal number of volers. But the actual division of the country into constituencies is influenced both by administrative con- venience and by the desire of legislators to establish a close connection with their own electorates, The conflict between the twin objectives of equality of suffrage and administrative convenience inevitably leads to inequal- ity in constituency size. But the main reason why con- VOTERS AND CONSTITUENCIES / 13 ‘Table 23 ‘Size and Representation of States in the Lok Sabha % of No. of % of total Rank State all-india seats in the vats in the eectorate ‘Lok Saba Lok Sabha 1589 8s 162 Wo. 4 103 98 8 94 83 2 80 86 2 80 16 40 16 30 9 14 38 2 33 50 26 30 53 2 48 40 2 40 39 20 38 11873982 24 4 27 9725897 20 10 19 731,56 12 1 13 30,76182 06 4 ox 1561085, 03 2 oa 201.708 neg 2 04 1232149 02 2 oa 754319 02 2 oa S19315 01 2 08 942313 02 2 oa 57.892 eg 1 02 31,665, neg 1 02 593305 o1 1 02 75.009 neg 1 02 814836 02 1 02 a1saiz 01 1 02 30.792 ou 1 02 169.120 meg 1 02 [Note : Jammu & Kashmir, 6 seats and Punjab, 13 seats are not included as elections were ot held in 1991 stimency boundaries need periodic revision is. because the population grows at widely differing rates in differing localities. The Constitution (Article 82) prescribes that a fresh drawing of boundaries should take place after ‘each Census. The first delimitation of constituencies in 1952 (which was carried out directly under the President) ‘came in for sharp criticism and the Election Commission proposed, successfully, that an independent Delimita- tion Commission should be formed to make recommen- dations which Parliament would then approve. Lok Sabha seats, on the whole, have been allotted to the states in proportion to their population (see Table 2.3). Table 2.4 ranks states according to their average constituency size. The states with the largest constituen- ies are the most under-represented in the Lok Sabha. However, among the major states the deviation from average is les than 12 per cent. For example, Rajasthan is the most under-represented: each MP has an electorate 11.7 per cent larger than the all-India average. The De- limitation Commission conducted a minor revision of boundaries in 1956, and comprehensive revisions in 1966 and 1976. The 1991 elections, however, were fought in 543 constituencies with boundaries that had been unchanged since 1977, though one seat was added {the number was 542 until 1989) when Goa got an extra seat on becoming state. The constituencies which were drawn up in 1976 by the Delimitation Commission have been used for five elections. By contrast only two ofthe first five elections (1967 and 1971) were fought on the same boundaries (though the only difference between 1957 and 1962 was due to the division of double-mem- ber seats into two constituencies each). In 1976, the Constitution was amended to postpone the next delimitation until after the year 2001. This was 14 // INDIA DECIDES Table 24 Electorate size tn 1991 (ranked by average electorate size per constituency Rank State Electorate No of ‘Average Const size ‘ze seals lectorate ‘compared to sive per ‘const 1 Rajasthan 26513,502 2 1,060,540, 2 Kamataka 28,839,296 2B 1.029.975 30 Tamil Nadu 39917.7 30 1.023.533 4 Andira Pradesh 42617973, 2 10174 : 5S Maharashtra 48,631,193, ae 1013.150 63 6 West Bengal 41,392.40 2 985/553 7 Kerala 19687.976 20 982/899 8 Haryana 9.725897 10 972,590 9 Gujarat 6 957/020 10 Orissa 2 943.074 11 Madhya Pradesh 0 942.718 12 Unar Pradesh 85 934.763 13 Bihar 50,453,647 4 934,327 4 Det 6073,156 1 867.594 1S Assam 11873982 “ R139 16 Nagaland 814,836 1 8143836 17 Tripura 1,561,085, 2 730.543 18 Himachal Pradesh 376,182 4 769,086 1189 19 Manipur 1232149 2 616075 735.10 20. Pondicherry ‘93,305 1 593,305 3750 21 Meghalaya 982513 2 471257 3036 22 Mizoram a14ai2 1 41s4t2 5634 23 Goa 1 377100 027 24 Chandigarh 1 372792 on 25 Arunachal Pradesh 2 2595658 7265 26 AGN Islands 1 8218 27 Sikkim 1 09:38 28 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 1 2.10 29 Daman & Dia 1 9390 30 Lakshadweep ' 96.65 AU india 525 Now : Jammu & Kashmir, 6 seas and Punjab, 13 seats are not included as no elections were held in 1991 in response to fears expressed by the states that, if they ‘were successful in implementing population control under the national family planning schemes, they might lose some of their representation in the Lok Sabha. There- fore, the 1977, 1980, 1984, 1989 and 1991 elections ‘were fought on the same boundaries and i is likely that the current constituency boundaries will not be changed this century. In 1987 the Chief Election Commissioner id urge the Government of India to authorise an imme- diate redrawing of constituency boundaries within sates, ‘without changing the statewise allocation of seats in the Houses. In 1990 a bill to give effect to this was brought before parliament but the V.P. Singh government fell before it could be enacted. Another bill was placed before a Lok Sabha committee in 1993 but the prospect of action seems remote. In addition to changes brought about by the four Delimitation Commissions, the constituency map of the country has changed several times as a. result of ‘modifications of the Delimitation Order which Partia- ‘ment has approved on other occasions (Table 2.5). Such changes were introduced, for example, after the Bombay Reorganisation Act, 1960, which bifurcated Bombay into Maharashtra and Gujarat. Another important alter- ation was brought about by the Two-Member Constitu- encies Abolition Act in 1961. Multiple-member seats VOTERS AND CONSTITUENCIES / 15 ‘Table 25 ‘Major Changes In The Constituency Map Between ‘Successive General Elections Year of ‘Total no. of| ‘Seats reserved for Seats reserved for Source of Change Becton constituencies Scheduled Castes ‘Scheduled Tribes 1982 401 n 6 Delimitation under President 1957 sox 6 31 Fint Delimitation Commission 1962 on % 31 ‘Two-member constitencies ‘Abolition Act (1961) 1967 20 n 3” Second Delimitation Commission (1963) in sis. % 37 Punjab Reorganisation Act (1966) wn sa % 38 Third Delimitation Commission (1973) 1980 saat * 0 - 988 sa 8 41 - 199 sae *% 41 Goa, Daman and Dix Reorganisation Act 191 43 % 41 - The one tiple-member contimuencie that existed in 1952 was abolished and the numberof double-member constituencies was inreased w9t. ‘The 91 double-member constituencies were divided. » ©. The representation of Himachal Pradesh wat cut from 6 eats to 4 on becoming a at. In 1980, elections were not hel in 13 constituencies (12 in Assam and 1 in Meghalays) where there were no candidates So there were sever more than 529 member isthe 1980-84 Lok Sabha ©0130 May 1989, Goa became a state with wo Lok Sabha seats while Daman and Div remained a union terior with one Lok Saba sea Prior o that Goa, Daman and Dis were one union territory with two Lok Sabha seas had led to the ereation of extraordinarily large constitu- cncies, high electioneering costs and the absence of a close relationship between the electorate and the legis- lators. All multi-member constituencies ceased to exist from 1962. ‘The differences in the size of constituencies in India have been significant and have increased over time, (Table 2.6). The coefficient of variation rose from 0.118 in 1962 to 0.184 in 1991. Figure 2.4 shows the unequal size of constituencies in 1991. ‘The principle of equality of suffrage has never been fully met in the drawing and re-drawing of boundaries, ‘Whether this has benefited the ruling party (or any other party) and led to unfaimess in the relation of seats to votes can be tested by analy sing the distribution of party support over large, medium and small constituencies. ‘The overall figures suggest that no party has gained any significant advantage by the unevenness of constituency size. As Table 2.7 shows the electorate size in Congress and non-Congress seats has been remarkably similar — ‘and any small advantage has shifted to and fro. Constituency delimitation has the potential to affect the electoral outcome in a major way in any democracy that uses the frst-past-the-post system. However, in India there appear to be no grounds for misgivings on this account so far. ‘The manner in which delimitation can have a major effect on electoral outcomes can be simply illustrated (Figure 2.5). Let us suppose that a town containing four equal-sized wards or localities has tobe divided into two constituencies and that there are two partes inthe town, Reds with 55% and Blues with 45%. If the town is

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