NOTES ON:

1942-43 TARGET DETERMINATION TABLES

COMPLETE GAZETTEER (Rev 0)

I hope you enjoy using these tables. They are a simple addition with little extra game time. The reason I
compiled them was to give additional flavour to this immersive game, and you can see how targeting priorities
evolved over the years. I strongly recommend using the Enhanced Fighter Cover tables (also on BGG) as a
logical partner to the evolving targets presented here.

The main message is: If you read a book about an Eighth Air Force Bomb Group's missions, the target it was
briefed to attack should feature here.

There are two components:

1. The Target Determination Tables for 1942-43. These are complete, apart from any niggling errors I have
missed, as I have been through the primary sources for this period.

2. The Gazetteer. This has most of the targets listed for the whole war, but until I finish the 1944-45 Target
Determination Tables there will certainly be a few missing. It roughly triples the size of the original.

The tables are based on the actual targets which were briefed (either as a Primary or Secondary target, but
weighted towards the former), rather than the targets which were actually bombed. This is consistent with the
game, where you are briefed to attack a particular target. It therefore disregards some Targets of Opportunity
(eg "a small town in Germany") which were just opportunistic and never did (nor were likely to) feature as a
briefed target. I have posted on BGG a simple procedure for determining whether you bomb your briefed
target or divert to a secondary (or Target of Opportunity) but that's not required to use these tables.

The target type is based on an aggregation of monthly effort by the bomb groups, and is smoothed to show how
the targeting priorities changed with time. I changed this from my original proposal as I felt it was a better way
to show the data, and it is simple enough to use.

The target locations are based on a weighted formula using available target types but allowing targets to be
selected if they are within one month either side of the month in question (but at a reduced likelihood). I didn't
apply this to the V Weapon sites in Dec '43 (ie I didn't include the Jan '44 targeted sites) as there were enough
options on the table anyway.

Airfields are listed by their town/city, so for example Le Bourget airfield is listed as Paris, or Twente-Enschede
airfield is listed as Enschede. Places are listed in their wartime country, so locations now in Poland are listed as
Germany (and apologies if I have mis-placed some).

I have tried hard to correct the spellings of place names, which are often somewhat inaccurate in the primary
sources (they didn't have the advantage we do of on-hand internet information). Apologies too for any
strangulation of the German, French, Flemish or other language.

When developing the Zone details, I worked them as follows in a data-driven, logical and repeatable fashion:

1. Get the correct location for the target. The Eight Air Force Historical Society site is excellent for this, but
there are a number of errors, so these needed to be corrected. I also had to do a bit of "industrial
archaeology" to work out what factory was attacked and where it was. This was important to determine
whether the true target, for example, was a Marshalling Yard or an Industrial Area.

2. Calculate the Zone based on two factors:

a) The distance from a fixed point - I chose Cambridge as a representative location close to the centre of the
Bomb Group airfields.
 b) Flight Time. I collated a few thousand data points on how long it took bomb groups to conduct their
missions. These were 'cleaned' by removing cases where they aborted, diverted to other targets etc. This
gave me a second way of positioning a target in terms of a representative Zone.

3. Position key 'marker' targets. There are some good cases where a city comes out strongly correlated
between the original TfT, the distance and the Flight Time. By locking these in place, it gave a frame of
reference for other cities to be located within.

4. Determine the best Zone for all other targets. These were positioned to give a logical and reproducible
progression the deeper into occupied territory the mission was flown. There are some in France that require
one or more "NA / E" zone before flying out to the target. There are also routes that go round the
Cherbourg or Brest peninsulas. I hope I have worked these in a reasonable and consistent fashion.
An example of a change vs original is Emden. On a straight-line distance it is in zone 6, but the game has it
in zone 7. I know the route flown was not a direct line, but does the extra distance flown over the North Sea
warrant this? Based on flight times of 9 missions, they equate to a zone of between 5.2 and 6.4, with an
average of 5.7. I chose to reduce this target to zone 6. This also helps the discrimination between Emden
and Wilhelmshaven (in zone 7).
Inevitably, some targets fall neatly between two zones. This was where flight times were useful to help
decide whether to round up or down. In addition I looked at the route taken using the actual mission maps
(where available) and also selecting a zone to maintain a coherent relationship with the other targets. Of
course there are marginal calls, and I'm sure others will want to express an opinion. It is easy enough to
change something.

5. Determine the route and zones overflown. For this I used actual route maps and logical routes, and
compared to the original TfT. There are some 'break points'. For example, somewhere between Eschweiler,
Duren and Cologne the route changes from one sea zone to two. I tried to make this consistent and logical.
I have also added for every target route a zone that is partial land and partial water. I just felt this was
appropriate.

6. Determine the zone modifiers. I have tried to keep these consistent with the original, especially the final
zone in which the target sits.

The reason for trying to be consistent in the targeting zones is that it then became easier to add the extra 800 (!)
targets I needed to add to the existing data set, in order to reflect all the locations where the Eighth Air Force
attacked.

You will find Zones 16 and 17 included. These are now accurate based on the actual distance (eg Trondheim).
I didn't narrow all the columns in the document to accommodate them, but added a mini-supplement at the foot
of the relevant page to show the extra zones.

Also included (at the end of the Gazetteer) are the zones required for the Regensburg mission from the target to
North Africa. I will do similar things for the outbound "Frantic" missions to Russia in 1944.

Having now completed the 42-43 target selection tables, I shall move on to 44-45, which is an altogether larger
activity. These inevitably will result in some more targets being added to the Gazetteer, but I hope to have
broken the back of it. Thus in two years' time I expect to issue the 'final' Gazetteer alongside the 44-45 Target
Determination tables.
I anticipate that since I have now been through all the source documents for 1942-43 there should be few major
retrospective changes, but inevitably little things creep out of the woodwork - eg was the target in
Gelsenkirchen the Marshalling Yard or the Oil Refineries?

I am sure there will be errors and corrections, coming from any/all of:
- My mis-placing of a target
- My calculations having a dumb error
- My interpretation of the best route
- My mis-typing of what I meant to say
- Copying the wrong info into the word document

Please let me know if you see anything which is wrong, or with which you disagree. If it isn't just a simple
typo, it is helpful to share your rationale so I can think about how it fits in to the broader framework.

I will update simple typos, but other changes I will save for a later update, so you have a stable document for
the next couple of years.

If you think there is a target missing in the Gazetteer, if you can give any pointers on the date and Bomb Group
that attacked it, that would be really useful. There are a very small number of targets in the original which are
not in the current version (eg Gneisenau, Nordstern in Norway) as either I have come across no evidence at
present that they featured on the target lists, they are included elsewhere (eg Handorf airfield is at Munster) or
they are incorrect, but this will be resolved one way or the other shortly.

As always, all feedback is welcome.

Chris Riches

Prime References

Original source material (mission reports etc) - National Archives, Kew, UK

Mighty Eighth War Diary, Freeman

Eighth Air Force Historical Society website: https://www.8thafhs.org/research/
Luftwaffe Airfields 1935-45, Henry L. deZeng IV
Hitler's V-Weapon Sites, Philip Henshall

All of the Bomb Group web pages, Bomb Group Histories and historical accounts
Backup - Rationale for Zone Changes

Here is a portrayal of the original German targets and their Zone:

I originally tried to fit the new targets in amongst the old, but this proved to be illogical and unsatisfying.

Here is the revised version:

This provides a much more structured model within which to fit the extra 800 targets that are required, if we are
to have a 'complete' picture of where the Eighth Air Force bombed. I am sure we will have a few tweaks with
players' feedback.
This is a partial portrayal of how these look on a map:
Here are some example changes, which I thought long and hard about, but I felt were warranted:

Overall, I think things came out well and gave a good base to add the multiplicity of 1944-45 targets.