Social Change: Measurement and Theory

Author(s): Paolo Garonna and Umberto Triacca

Source: International Statistical Review / Revue Internationale de Statistique, Vol. 67, No. 1
(Apr., 1999), pp. 49-62
Published by: International Statistical Institute (ISI)
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InternationalStatistical Review (1999), 67, 1, 49-62, Printedin Mexico
@ International
Statistical
Institute

Social Change: Measurement and Theory*

Paolo Garonna and Umberto Triacca
IstitutoNazionale di Statistica, Via CesareBalbo, 16, 1-00164 Rome,Italy

Summary
Societal change, which takes a variety of directions and forms and in no way can be assimilated or
reduced to a single dimension, is often accompanied by a perception of insufficient understanding and lack
of control. There is a frustrated need for mastering complexity and instability, separating the voluntary
from the involuntary, the intended from the unintended, opportunities from risks, getting to the real
causes and dominating the uncertain implications of social change. Social change catches us unprepared
and confused.
In this context statistics are generally considered a fundamental instrument of knowledge, but also
part of the problem! In the public debate and in the specialized literature, the ability to measure social
phenomena through current statistics and indicators is increasingly questioned. Data-it is claimed--are
lacking, particularly longitudinal data; their quality (accuracy, relevance, timeliness, comparability, etc.)
should be improved; indicators do not provide early warning signals, policy performance evaluation,
and a precise indication of outcomes. Statistics cannot be used as a reliable and timely basis for decision
making by individuals, organizations, governments, and for understanding these decisions. In some cases,
statistics have been accused of giving a misleading and false picture of reality: do we measure the real
extent of social exclusion and unemployment? Do we fully capture the quality of life and the degradation
of the environment? Mismeasurement has been deemed by some commentators as being responsible
for the wrong focus in inflation and stabilization policies, science and technology, unemployment and
poverty. The productivity paradox, the informal economy, failure to measure welfare and the quality of
urban life are instances where statistics do not seem to provide complete and satisfactory answers to the
demand for information and knowledge. Our paper illustrates how, quite independently of measurement
techniques and data production processes, the inadequacy of the conceptual framework may explain
mismeasurement in relation to complex (multidimensional) and dynamic social phenomena. It is then to
social theories, explanations and interpretations that statisticians need to turn, in order to come to grips
with the new challenges in social measurement.
We will develop this thesis looking at a few cases where measurement issues can be connected to both
theoretical and empirical difficulties. The statistical gap which reveals itself in the mismeasurement or
difficult measurement of social phenomena is closely interconnected with the social science gap. Only
close collaboration between statisticians and social scientists can bring about continuous advancement in
social science and quality improvement in social statistics.

Key words:Problemsof measurement;

Socialchange;Socialmeasurement
data.

1 Signals and Symptoms

In the history of western civilization, there have been long waves of public attentionand debate
shiftingfrompublicinstitutionsto civil society,andvice-versa.Inthe post-warperiod,therewas firsta
strongcommitmentto buildinga policy environmentat the nationalandinternationallevel conducive
*Revised version of a paperpresentedto the 51st Session of the InternationalStatisticalInstitute,held in Istanbul,18-26
August 1997.

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50 P. GARONNAANDU. TRIACCA

to stability and growth:Keynesiandemandmanagement,welfareprograms,tradeliberalizationand

the internationalmonetarysystem were the essential ingredientsaccompanyingthe reconstruction
of Europe and the 'glorious thirties' of employment and growth. In the seventies, societies took
their revenge by drawing attention to microeconomic instability, energy conservation, changing
patternsof consumption,productionadjustmentandindividualresponsibility.The focus then shifted
back to institutionalreform:privatization,welfare cuts, regional economic integration,urbanand
family policies. The scenario in the present decade has been strongly conditioned by the two
"revolutions"taking place in the transitioncountries and in the developing world, and by the
remarkableconvergenceof political andeconomic institutionsaroundthe worldtowardsthe market
economy and pluralistic democracy.Societies have, as such, then come back to the stage front,
as the main source of prosperityand competitiveness.Coping with culturalor civilization clashes
(Huntington,1993), investingin trustandsocialcapital(Fukuyama,1995) andpromotingcompetence
and learning (Ciampi, 1996; Crozier, 1995) is the main policy thrust after the demise of social
engineering and ideological confrontation,for the developmentof healthy and dynamic national
systems.
Above all, we have become aware of a thriving,turbulentand often painful process of social
change underway.We perceive more stronglyshocks and crises; but it is undeniablethatchanges in
life-styles, improvementin education,wider circulationof informationand ideas are also creating
new opportunities.A symptomatic analysis of society presents a compelling view of profound,
acceleratingandcontroversialtransformations. Familystructuresandlife-styles haveclearlyevolved,
affecting patternsof family formation,marriageand cohabitation,sex and friendship,fertility and
mobility, divisions of tasks and power in the household, social networks, community work and
leisure, etc. The degree of 'openness' of societies has increased,matching the correspondingrise
in the openness of economic systems: exposureto immigrationpressures,worldwidecirculationof
news ideas and fashions, tourismand travel,common forms of entertainmentmusic art and culture
are stimulatedby growing educationlevels, telecommunicationtechnologies and betterand wider
knowledge of languages and civilizations.
Values, those profoundbeliefs makingup the fabricand the sense of a community'sidentity,are
shifting: from entitlementsand social commitmentto individualresponsibilityand self-help, from
need to merit, from regulationand public supportto educationand competition.

2 The crisis of intelligence

Societal change, which takes a varietyof directionsand forms and in no way can be assimilated
or reducedto a single dimension,is often accompaniedby a perceptionof insufficientunderstanding
and lack of control.Thereis a frustratedneed for masteringcomplexityandinstability,separatingthe
voluntaryfrom the involuntary,the intendedfrom the unintended,opportunitiesfrom risks, getting
to the real causes and dominatingthe uncertainimplicationsof social change. Social change catches
us unpreparedand confused. We sufferfrom an intelligencecrisis (see Crozier,1995). This crisis is
deemed to be at the root of the erosion of the trustwe placed in the workingof our resources,of our
democraciesandoureconomic systems.Facinga shortageof intelligence,challengesbecome threats,
sources of conflict and protectionism,sometimeseven xenophobiaand selfishness, underminingthe
foundations of trust upon which our communitiesare built and the functioningof the democratic
process relies.
In this context statistics is generallyconsidereda fundamentalinstrumentof knowledge, but also
part of the problem! In the public debate and in the specialized literature,the ability to measure
social phenomenathroughcurrentstatistics and indicatorsis increasinglyquestioned. Data-it is
claimed-are lacking, particularlylongitudinaldata;their quality (accuracy,relevance, timeliness,
comparability,etc.) should be improved;indicatorsdo not provide early warning signals, policy

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 SocialChange:Measurement
andTheory 51

performanceevaluation, and a precise indicationof outcomes. Statistics cannot be used as a reli-

able and timely basis for decision making by individuals,organizationsand governments,and for
understandingthese decisions. In some cases, statisticshas been accused of giving a misleadingand
false pictureof reality:do we measurethe real extentof social exclusion andunemployment?Do we
fully capturethe quality of life and the degradationof the environment?Mismeasurementhas been
deemedby some commentatorsas being responsiblefor the wrongfocus in inflationand stabilization
policies, science andtechnology,unemploymentandpoverty.The productivityparadox,the informal
economy, failureto measurewelfareandthe qualityof urbanlife areinstanceswherestatisticsdo not
seem to providecomplete and satisfactoryanswersto the demandfor informationand knowledge.

3 Is There a Gap in Social Statistics?

Undeniably considerableprogress has been made at the nationaland internationallevel for the
developmentof social statistics:populationcensuses have become richerandmoreprecise;adminis-
trativefiles (such as populationregistersor welfaredata)are being exploitedfor statisticalpurposes;
sample surveys have become widespread(e.g. multipurposesample surveys);time budget and lon-
gitudinal surveys provide precious information;definitions and classifications are improved and
standardized;datacollection techniques(areasamplingor CASIC) and methodsfor datacorrection,
compilation,imputation,etc. have been upgraded;datapresentation,analysis and disseminationare
considerablymore developed now.
The 'gap in social statistics', in spite of the considerable investmentbeing made upon it, is
mainly due to an unprecedentedsurge in expectationsand demands;it is thereforethe by-product
of education,growthin civil society and in its considerationof the importanceof statistics;this gap
must thereforebe addressedby a preliminaryinvestigationof users' requirements,particularlythe
new features.
Five such featurescan be singled out as being the most relevantand intriguing,albeitnot the only
ones:
1. Performanceassessment of social policies has become both more needed and more difficult.
Social policy reform requires complex, informed, rational and forward-lookingdecision-
making.Tightbudgetspush towardscost-efficiencyandeffectiveness.Alternativeinstitutional
arrangementsare being experimentedwith and tested. 'Coherent'policy making (see OECD
1993), a cross cutting approachto indicators,accounting,and analysis, and the integrationof
differentsocial data archivesfigurehighly in the political agenda.
2. The increasingrole in social protectionof non-profit,and otherprivateorganizations,house-
holds and citizens, reliance on self-help, individualresponsibility and choice determine a
widespreaddemandfor guidance,counselingand publicinformation.Which school has better
facilities and teaching? In which areas and sectors is one more likely to find a job? Which
degrees give a higher probabilityof successful careers?How safe is a neighborhood?How
do we choose a hospitalor a specializedphysician?Should one postponehaving childrenfor
careerreasons?etc. While individualsandbusinesshave, in general,easy access to basic infor-
mation for their economic choices for consumption,investment,saving, etc. (e.g. short-term
indicators,CPI, interestand exchangerates),datafor social choices are less easily available.
3. People increasinglydemanddisaggregatedatarelatingto theirterritory,communityand envi-
ronment.Informationmust be susceptibleof being linked throughgeo-referencingwith other
informationdrawnfrom differentsources.
4. Developmentof telecommunications,global technologies and world news stimulatedemand
for comparablecross-countryindicatorsand analysis. This requiresstandardizationof con-
cepts, classificationsand definitionsat the nationaland internationallevel.
5. Democraciestoday strugglefor understandingthe mood and analyzingin depththe malaise of

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52 P. GARONNAANDU. TRIACCA

society, sending messages across differentsocial classes, communicatingfacts and decisions,

sharing views and aspirations."Learningto listen" is the most critical, and often forgotten,
art of governance and leadership (Crozier, 1995). Statistics are a fundamentalinstrument
for giving voice to people's feelings and frustrations.People pretendto be listened to. This
explains the ratherhigh response rate to opinion polls, and their popular use in political
or commercial campaigns, the growing importanceof social surveys, the attentionpaid to
questionnairedesign, interviewingskills, and their impact on data quality. Disillusion with
politics and disaffection with industrialrelationscan also be understoodon the basis of the
exit/voice dilemma(Hirschman1977, Galbraith1996): a more informedsociety can bringthe
citizens closer to, and make them more active in, the institutionalarena(the policy).
If the challenges posed by the explosion of implicit and explicit demandfor good quality social
statisticsarenot met, statisticswill be called uponto beara partof theresponsibilityfor social failures;
it will even risk becoming the scapegoatof conflict andincomprehension.Blamingmismeasurement
and the sluggish response of statisticians,however,underminesthe public confidencein data and in
their usefulness for decision-makingthus furthereroding the social fabric. The statisticalgap and
the social gap risk becoming mutuallyreinforcingin a vicious circle. Statisticiansthereforeneed to
engage in an in-depthanalysis of measurementdifficultiesin social statistics,their nature,sources,
implicationsand possible solutions.

4 Measurement and Theory in Social Science

Blalock (1968, p. 12) observedthat"socialtheoristsoften use conceptsthatareformulatedatrather
high levels of abstraction.These are quite differentfrom the variablesthat are the stock-in-tradeof
empirical sociologists. The problemof bridgingthe gap between theory and researchis then seen
as one of measurementerror".Measurementin the social sciences may be conceived as a process
linking abstractconcepts to empiricalindicators.It transformsconcepts into accountingindicators
or schemes. Lazarsfeld(1965) outlinedthis transformation,singling out four phases:
1. The abstractdefinitionof the phenomenonor conceptthat is the object of the survey;
2. The breakdownof the originalconceptinto "constituentaspects"or "dimensions".This phase
is necessarybecause,as a rule,the originalconceptcorrespondsto a complex set of phenomena
ratherthan to a simple, directlyobservablephenomenon;
3. The choice of indicators.In this phase an indicatoris assigned to each dimension;
4. The constructionof aggregateindicators.This phasemay be skippedsince the characteristicsof
the phenomenonthatis the objectof the surveymay be such as to advise againstconstructinga
syntheticindicator.In othercases, the aggregateindicatorentailsconstructionof an accounting
scheme, as for instancea social accountingmatrix,or accountsof employmentand health.
If we analyze the measurementprocess just described, it becomes quite clear that developing
it correctly necessitates a theoretical frame of reference. Theory is necessary at every level of
explorationand in every phase of the process. In particular,theoryplays a fundamentalrole in the
abstractspecification of the concept and in its breakdowninto constituentaspects. Moreover,and
again from a theoretical point of view, the interveningrelations between the various constituent
aspects, between the indicators chosen and the constituent aspects, and between the indicators
themselves must be renderedexplicit. For this reason, even phase three is pervaded by theory:
judgment of the conceptual validity of an indicator (relevance), in other words its capacity to
representeffectively a given dimension,cannotbe separatedfrom theoreticalconsiderations.
On the other hand, the empirical aspects also play an extremely importantrole. To illustrate
this point, let us imagine we have reached, througha measurementprocess of the type described
above, constructionof n indicatorsII, 12,... , In (n variables).Consideringthe correlationamong

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 Social Change:Measurementand Theory 53

these variablesis worthwhile.In particular,a high correlationbetween two or more indicatorscan

be interpretedas a symptom of an erroneousbreakdownof the phenomenonand/or an erroneous
choice of the indicatorsthemselves. If, for example, the correlationbetween Ip and Iq is elevated,
the correspondingdimensions Ap and Aq are probablynot distinct constituentaspects; or the two
indicatorsmay measurethe same dimension,A or Aq. In any case, empiricalevidence of this type
shouldspuradditionaltheoreticaleffortsin orderto redefinethe measurementprocess andto improve
the quality of the measurementor measurements.
The measurementof social phenomenais, therefore,a process involving aspects of both a theo-
reticaland empiricalcharacter.This circularitybetweentheoriesanddatais inherentin the scientific
method and characterizesthe accumulationof knowledge (Garonna& Geretto, 1996). Data are
needed to constructand validatetheories;but at the same time theoriesare needed to constructand
validate data. If in the process something goes wrong, as shown by the increasing difficulties of
capturingsocial phenomena,we need to look at the whole measurementprocess and its different
stages; in particularwe must consider the interplaybetween conceptualand empiricalaspects, be-
tween measurementand theory.Mismeasurementor measurementdifficultiessignal thatsomething
has gone wrong in this interplay:they call into question,therefore,not only techniquesand methods
of data collection compilationand processing,but above all the conceptualframeworksunderlying
the design and operation of statistical informationsystems. We claim that measurementgaps in
social sciences are to be attributedto both theoreticaland empiricalshortcomings,and above all
to the insufficient integrationof the two dimensions. It can be shown that not taking into consid-
erationthe multidimensionalnatureof social phenomenain the conceptualframeworkmay lead to
mismeasurement.
Considerthe following example,which follows the scheme of the measurementprocessdeveloped
above. A representsa given social phenomenon,assumedto be not directly observable.Previously
we saw that the possibility of passing from an unobservablesocial phenomenon(or concept) to
an indirectmeasurementof it entails breakingdown the original phenomenoninto its measurable
constituentaspects(or dimensions).By measurabledimensionwe meana constituentaspectto which
an indicatorcan be assigned. In formal terms, this breakdowncould take the form of a partition,
Al, A2, ..., An, of the phenomenonA, in otherwords,

A1U A2 U ... U An = A,
Ain A = , i # j.
It is evident thatmultiple breakdownsare possible. But not all of them are useful in detectingthe
phenomenonA breakdownthat identifiesa single constituentaspect, which we will indicate as A1,
for example, is manifestly erroneousalthoughconvenientin practicalterms. In this case, A1 = A,
but this contradictsour assumptionthat A is not observable.So, in this type of situation,although
we can make use of an indicatorthatwill give us a "perfect"measurementof the constituentaspect
this indicatorwould "indicate"itself, ratherthan the initial phenomenon,in other words, A1; and
A, is only a part of A. So, if social change regardsexclusively its complement this change goes
undetected.
The logical contradictionpointed out previously can be overcome by breakingdown the phe-
nomenoninto at least two measurableconstituentaspects or dimensions:A1 and A2. However,such
a breakdownmight not be "fine"enough. In this case, once again, social change may not emerge,
by virtue of a sort of "aggregationeffect". One way to surmountthis hurdle is to adopt a more
sophisticatedbreakdown:A1, A2,..., An, of the phenomenon-considered by n > 2.
Up to this point we have conductedthe discussionpostulatinga staticcontext.However,the world
is not static, so it is wiser to view the social phenomenonused as an example as a process evolving
over time. We indicate this fact utilizing the following notation:A', t = 1, 2,.... Introduction

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54 P. GARONNAANDU. TRIACCA

of the dynamic aspect furthercomplicates the picture. Suppose we have identified, at time t, an
"optimum"or "ideal"breakdown:A', A:, ..., A', which allows us to capturethe changes affecting
the phenomenonconsideredin theirentirety.This is not to say that.attime t + k, this breakdownwill
still be optimum.For example, at time t, A' U A U -.. U A' = A', at time t +k, A U A U .--U A' C
At+k. In other words, social change will have renderedthe optimum breakdownrelative to time
t obsolete, in the sense that this breakdown,correspondingto time t + k, no longer "covers"the
phenomenonin its entirety.It is clear that,once again, social change cannotbe completely detected.
Ourargumentillustrateshow, quiteindependentlyof measurementtechniquesand dataproduction
processes, the inadequacyof the conceptualframeworkmay explain mismeasurementin relationto
complex (multidimensional)anddynamicsocial phenomena.It is thento social theories,explanations
and interpretationsthat statisticiansneed to turn,in orderto come to grips with the new challenges
in social measurement.
We will develop this argumentlooking at a few cases wheremeasurementissues can be connected
to both theoreticaland empiricaldifficulties.

5 Changing Family Arrangements

This is an area where changes in statisticaltools and data have fed new theoreticalperspectives,
opening up issues for monitoringandunderstandingthe reshapingof the family andits role in society.
For a long period, official statistics had adopteda monodimensionalapproachfocusing on family
structures.This approachwas basically inducedby relianceupon census data,as the main source of
informationon households.But the family is a process;it goes throughdifferentstages andcycles; it
develops links and patternsinside and outside;and the populationcensus cannotcapturethe whole
picture.
The standardindicatorsof householdsize, compositionandage structurereflectbasicallywhatthe
census configurationcan offer.This is an unfortunatebuttypical patternin the relationshipbetween
theory and measurement:the analysis focuses only on those aspects for which data are available
and indicatorscan be constructed;thereforemeasuringonly what can be measured,ratherthanwhat
should be measured.For instance,the numberof householdswith no childrenincreases;but we do
not know whetherthis reflectspatternsof fertility,age, or family planning.
There has been a long-lasting discussion on the lack of data concerningthe family and its oper-
ation, and on the limitations of the statisticalconcepts underlyingthe productionof demographic
information.Severalauthors(see Barbagli,1984) havediscussedthe manydimensionsof the family.
In particularthreedifferentaspects were singled out: 1) family structures;2) the relationshipswithin
the family; 3) interfamilyrelations.The firstis the most conventionaldimension:it involves size and
composition, patternsof family formation,transformationand breaking-up.The second and third
aspects were the less well understood,concerningmodalities of interaction,roles, division of re-
sponsibilities,frequencyof contacts,support,ties, etc; requiringnew statisticaltools, samplesurveys
(ad-hoc or multipurpose),exploitationof registers (where available),extension and adjustmentof
census definitions.
In many countriesdemographersand statisticianshave a well establishedtraditionof workingto-
gether.This partnershiphas promptedcross-fertilizationandinnovationin the field, affectingmethods
and measurementtechniques(imputation,interviewing,but also analysis and dissemination).
Many issues remainoutstandinghowever,requiringa greaterdegreeof interactionbetween statis-
ticians, demographersand othersocial scientists.For instance,the boundariesof householdsbecome
increasingly mobile and permeable(Saraceno, 1994). Do childrenof divorcedcouples belong to a
single family? Do weekend partnersconstituteone or two households?Whataboutcollege-students
or retiredpeople living in differentcontextsfor partsof the year?Cohabitationis still consideredan
essential element of the statisticaldefinitionof a household;butrelations,networksandrelationships

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 Social Change:Measurementand Theory 55

at the boundaryamong different households need to be furtheranalyzed. In some countries, the

developmentof informalnetworksof self-help, advice and assistancecenteredaroundan extended
concept of family or kinship (see Sabbadini,1996) is assuming growing importance,vis-h-vis the
prevailingevolution of welfare reform.
Longitudinalpatterns,sharingof roles between partners,people in institutionalcare (dependent
elderly, the disabled, etc.), and other issues on the frontierof the transformationof the family are
stimulatinga new wave of statisticalactivitiesbased on the integrationof datafrom varioussources
(time-budgetsurveys,ad-hocandmultipurposesurveys,home productionaccounts,'social economy'
or voluntarylabor accounts,etc.), more in-depthanalysis and a multidisciplinaryapproach(e.g. the
economics of the family).
Statisticalinstitutesare venturingever furtherin the explanationandinterpretationof the changing
role of the family, producingand disseminatinganalyticalmonographsand papers,cooperatingand
sometimes competing with researchcentersand universities.

6 Measurement Without Theory: The Case of the Labor Market

Social sciences sufferfroma sortof paradigmaticpovertywith respectto the othersciences. Often,
we find before us a pluralityof quasi-paradigms(or potentialparadigms),none of which is able to
emerge as truly dominant:able, in other words, to consolidate the results of concurrentparadigms
withina more solid andcomprehensivetheory.Socio-economicparadigmshavea tendencyto become
atrophiedbecausethey areisolatedfromthe outsideworld-from the empiricalevidence,the practice
of measurementand, above all, from the stimuli the outside world produces. In our opinion, it is
precisely this separationbetween the theory and practice of measurementwhich prejudices the
possibility for a new paradigmto emerge and conquer the others. This makes it very difficult to
formulateand specify a sufficientlyrobusttheoreticalscheme withinwhich to align andorganizethe
process of measuringsocial phenomena.The end resultis the determinationand legitimizationof a
situationof "measurementwithouttheory".
Let us consider,for example,the problemsof measurementregardingthe labormarket.In this field
it is sufficientlyclear that, in many respects,measurementdifficultieshave to do with inadequacies
and delays of a theoretical-conceptualnature.Prevailingconcepts and definitionsare, in fact, taken
from the traditionalmodels of the labor market,based on the standardKeynesian approach.In
these models, labor was assumed to be relatively homogeneous and fully flexible, while salaries
were considered relatively rigid and, in any case, having little impact on unemployment(which
is, therefore, involuntary).The economy was seen as being closed. Instability and uncertainties
were essentially controlledby public infrastructuresand interventions,and, on the whole, the social
structurewas deemed stable and traditional.
Today'slabormarketsituationis completelydifferent.Underthe thrustof the changestakingplace,
economic analysishas for some time qualified,clarifiedand,in part,abandonedthis referencemodel,
creatingnew interpretativeschemes in theirplace: efficiency wages, the theoryof implicitcontracts,
insiders/outsiders,game theory applications,models of adverse selection and of the internallabor
market,etc.
However, these models have not yet producedsufficientlysolid conceptualframeworksto enjoy
a consensus that would allow them to become operationalon the statisticallevel. Attempts in this
direction have been made in reference to the concept of "natural"unemployment,NAIRU (non
acceleratinginflationrate of unemployment),or the reservationwage. But these attemptsstill have
not met with success becauseof the lack of clarityandconsensussurroundingthese indicators,which
makes their popularizationand diffusionproblematic.
Greatersuccess is enjoyed by the search for indicatorscomplementaryto the unemployment
rate and the activity rate. Growingimportanceis being attributedto the disaggregatedindicatorsof

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56 P. GARONNAANDU. TRIACCA

unemploymentby age, sex and duration,the distinctionbetweenjob losers, job leavers and persons
seeking their first job, the disaggregationsby educationaland skill levels, by territorialarea, by
household typology and position within the household. One group of indicatorshas linked the job
searchwith the conditions of supply:minimumacceptablesalary,geographicavailability,the search
for temporaiyor atypicaljobs, the intensityof the job search(numberand types of search actions).
The labor force surveyprovides numerousrelevantindicatorsin this respect,albeit sometimes with
limited statisticalsignificance.The sensitivityof the unemploymentrateto variationsin these supply
conditions has proven to be significant and growing. This means that the labor marketfunctions
as such, and the circumstancesof purely Keynesian(or involuntary)unemployment,depending,in
other words, exclusively on effective demand,are limited.
The datacould allow indicatorswhich highlightstructuraltypes of relationshipsto be constructed;
for example, persons willing to work on certain specific conditions depending on a shortage of
information,on the house rentalmarket,or searchcosts; or labordemandindicatorsconditionedby
the rigidity of hiring/firingpractices,by the difficultiesof finding labor,by the mismatchbetween
requestedandavailablequalifications.Importantdiscussionsandformulationsareunderwayto define
"discouragement"indicators,involving personswho do not seek a job because they doubtthey will
find one, involuntarypart-timelabor,and offers of a second or an informaljob.
Thereis a greatrequestfor dataon durationandflows, whichpermitus to understandthepersistence
(hysteresis) of unemployment,inter-companyand inter-sectorialmovementsand theirimplications
for salaries and careers(the Lilien index, for example).
Laborstatisticianshave sought to separateout the inactive,i.e. those who are not partof the labor
force, and the persons who are in the educationalor professionaltrainingsystem or whose status
alternates(cf. OECD, 1992). Operatorsin the so-called "thirdsector",those engaged in "socially
useful", unpaidcommunityor voluntaryactivitiesare hardto classify.
Registrationof vacancies, with the indispensableaccompanimentof informationon durationcon-
tractualand salaryconditions,has become particularlydifficult,primarilybecauseof the increasingly
marginalrole played by public placementoffices and the lack of statisticalsurveys on the subject.
Given this varietyof indicators,the problembecomes one of choosing the correctone or groupof
correct ones. At this point the lack of theoreticaland conceptualframes of referenceable to guide
these choices andfurnishassistancein the decision-makingprocessesby publicand privateoperators
and individualcitizens becomes clear.The prevailingtrendhas been to substitutethe unemployment
rate with a set of indicators,based on the considerationthat a single index is unableto satisfy the
need for informationand to adequatelyrepresenta complex andmulti-facetedsituation.This policy,
assumed by the pioneering AmericanBureauof LaborStatistics, has been followed by numerous
statisticalinstitutesand by Eurostat,althoughsometimes with a dose of abstractempiricism.
The true obstacle is the still wide divergenceexisting between analysts and labor scholars and
official statisticians.The formeroften tend to neglect conceptualquestionsconnected to statistical
production,only to then lamentthe scarcityand imprecisionof data.The latterfeel sometimes they
are able to act alone, taking chargeof survey techniquesand limiting themselves to a conventional
harmonizationof definitionsand classifications.
Reassessing unemploymentstatistics may, in this context, representan importantoccasion to
bridge this gap and work together.Under pressurefrom the EuropeanParliament,public opinion
and the governmentsof the member-states,the EuropeanUnion has initiatedan ambitiousprogram
to work out harmonized indicators, to define a common structureon labor force surveys, and
to develop the Europeanpanel survey. An equally ambitious programis underwayto formulate
conceptual and methodological definitions in preparationfor the 1998 meeting of the Conference
of Labor Statisticians.Withoutthe active involvementof the scientific community,labor scholars,
statisticians,economists, sociologists and institutionalscholars,etc., we will be unable to close the
gap between unemploymenttheory and measurementpractice.This will create heavy risks for the

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 Social Change:Measurementand Theory 57

credibilityof the indicatorsin this crucialfield of economic policy.

We areconvincedthatconsiderationsrelativeto measurementproblemsvis-a-vis the labormarket
can also be extended to other fields of social analysis. In particular,overcoming the gap between
theoryandmeasurementpracticeis a sine qua non for establishinga correctapproachto any problem
of measuringsocial change. Finally, we believe that theoreticalparadigmsmust be open to stimuli
and solicitationsgrowingout of empiricalevidence andmeasurementpractice,interactingwith them
througha scheme which relies on systematicfeedback.In otherwords,a flexible, dynamicapproach
is neededto offset a rigid,staticparadigmthatis destinedto suddenlycollapsethe momentundetected
signals of change become too strongand no longer referback to the paradigmutilized.

7 Perceptions and Expectations: Measuring Subjectivity?

We have seen above that one of the phases of the logical-conceptualprocess that allows us to
translatethe abstractimage of social phenomenon(thatcannotbe observeddirectly)into (observable)
indicators,or into a synthesis of indicators,involves definingthe constituentaspects or dimensions
of the phenomenonconsidered.We have also stressedthatit is possible for social changeto generate
a greater articulationof the social phenomenonthat is the object of the survey, in terms of both
dimensions and dynamics. In this regardwe must emphasize that, in many cases, social change
producesa growing importanceof the subjectivecharacterinherentin the constituentaspects of the
phenomenonunder consideration.In these types of situations,if we continue to consider only the
objectivedimensions,the phenomenonmay lose clarity.Forthis reason,morespace mustbe given to
the "expectations","opinions",and "perceptions"which individualsand householdshave of reality.
In other words, a greateruse of so-called subjective-perceptiveindicatorsis needed.
Let us consider, for example, religious phenomenon.Quite probably,the decline of the public
function of the churches, the tendency to "privatize"religious feelings, the manifestationthrough
minimal acts, their nesting in the intimate sphere of the subject's conscience have reduced the
importanceof the behavioral dimensionof the phenomenon(a dimensiontypically of an objective
nature)measurablethroughstructuralindicators,such as frequencyof attendingreligious functions,
participationin religious rites (baptisms,weddings) or commitmentto religious organizationsand
activities, to the advantage of dimensions that are of a subjective nature, such as the cognitive
dimension, which Glock (1965) termed"ideological",regardingthe beliefs and representationsof
the subjects, or the experientialdimension, which concerns, as does the cognitive dimension, the
subjectiveplane but, unlike the cognitive dimension,is based on feelings and emotions.
Another social phenomenoninfluencedby significantsubjective transformationsis health, and
especially the conceptof health.In thiscase, as well, the subjectivedimensionshaveassumedgrowing
importance.The problemof healthis increasinglyset in a context that spills over strictmedical and
clinical boundaries(which may be consideredobjective).An individual'shealthis a comprehensive
consequence that grows out of the interactionof physiological and pathological phenomena,the
capacity of the organismto deal with "attacks"which compromiseoverall "normalcy",not only in
termsof physical efficiency,butalso in termsof psychic andrelationalequilibrium.The same disease
foreshadowsa varietyof situationsdeterminedby the differentalterationsand by the consequences
these alterationshave on the individualhimself. Furthermore,the implicationsat the psychological
and social level of the disease contributeheavily to the definitionof the overallpathology.In essence,
the medical aspect cannotbe the sole dimensionof the healthphenomenon.Growingimportanceis
being attributedto the subjectas the pertinentand crediblesourceto evaluatehis own state of health.
Once again, in this frameworkthe perceptiveapproachassumes a key significance.
These examples confirmthe utility of integratingthe measurementof social phenomena,also by
renderingexplicit the subjectiveaspectscharacterizingthem.Still, we mustnote thatthe construction
of subjective indicators involves significant methodological problems connected to the difficulty

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58 P. GARONNAANDU. TRIACCA

of expressing the data in statistical-mathematicaland comparableforms that can be generalized.

Feelings, attitudesand perceptionsmay vary from subject to subject, sometimes even in the same
person dependingon the circumstances,since the mode of expressionof individualsdependson age,
culturallevel and socio-economic conditions.In part,these problemsare overcome by constructing
attitude scales (consisting of a series of statements or items on which individuals express their
agreementor disagreement)which allow us to measurethe intensityof the attitudeby graduatingthe
statisticalunits of the collectivity consideredalong a continuum.But the fact remainsthat subjective
aspects are not easily measurable.Broadly speaking, the level at which subjective aspects can be
measuredis inferiorcomparedto the level at which objective aspects can be measured.In fact, the
majorityof techniquesformulatedto measureattitudesup to this time have producedscales which,
at most, can be consideredordinal.
In conclusion, we can affirmthat the more social change augmentsthe importanceof the sub-
jective dimensions, the more the level of accuracyin measuringsocial phenomenadeclines and,
consequently, the more the possibilities of capturingtheir effects precisely are reduced. But the
quality of the measurementis not reducedthereby.The relevanceof the indicatorsactually grows,
as does their capacity to capturethe complexity of social change.

8 The Challenge of Measuring 'Outcomes' and Effectiveness

Social policy debateandreformhas focused attentionon the outcomesand the effectivenessof the
variousmeasures.Conventionalinputindicatorsandcost-efficiencyconsiderationsarenotconsidered
sufficientto evaluateperformanceand guide public choice in the difficultdecision makingthatfiscal
consolidationand demandpressuresimpose.
In issues concerning health, educationor employability,the effects of a certainpolicy programs
may occur along a period of time, after some j-curve effect; they may determineinteractionsand
feedbacks afterthe firstimpact;they induce often dead weight and substitution;they may be accom-
panied counteractedor even neutralizedby expectationsand anticipationsof users and producers;
they may be indirector diffuse to the extentof generatingthe well-knownpropertiesof externalities
or public goods, which affect measurement.
Two aspectshave, morerecently,furthercomplicatedthe picture:first,the publicdemandsincreas-
ingly 'qualitative'assessments, meaning, ratherloosely, more accuracyin the identificationof the
long-termandcomprehensiveeffects of social expenditureor cuts thereof;second,the coherence--or
ratherincoherence--of the policy approachin separatedspecific fields is generatingconcern and
remedialinitiatives:How does educationaffect employment?Does crimehavean impacton business
development?To whatextentarefamily formationanddecisions affectedby economic prospectsand
employment security?What are the implicationsof a forward-lookingpreventionpolicy in health,
long-termcare, the elderly.
In the literature,emphasishas been placed on the concept of "outcome",meaning the long-term
impact of a certainmeasureon the state of welfare of the beneficiaries(Opit, 1993), ratherthan the
more conventionalconcept of output.The effectiveness of a healthprogramrefers to the 'outcome'
obtainedin relationto the objective assumed.The outcome is an indicator,the most significantone,
of the quality of health care and, as a consequence,the measurementof the 'product'of a measure
or programsis partof the more generalprocess of evaluationof the qualityof health care (di Orio,
1988, p. 89). The analysis of the quality of public services therefore,particularlyconsumers' or
personalservices, must shift fromthe perspectiveof efficiency (resources-outputrelationship)to that
of effectiveness (initial state-outcomerelationship),(see Vittadini,1977).
This shift, however,is more easily preachedthanmade.How do we measure,for instance,the state
of health of a specific populationtargetgroup?The standardpracticeis to make use of conventional
diagnostic parametersof a clinical or biologic type. These indicators,however,do not capturethe

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 Social Change:Measurementand Theory 59

multidimensionalnatureof phenomenasuch as the state of health, and often do not allow a full
understandingof structuralchange. It is well known for instance that a chronic state implies that
clinical parametersdo not change significantly;butthis does not meanthatthe benefitof alleviatinga
chronicdisease cannotbe measured(see Levorato,Rozzini & Trabucchi,1990).The scarcesensitivity
of clinical parametershas stimulatedthe searchfor new healthindicators,more accuratelyreflecting
the healthconditionsof the elderly.In particular,functionalmeasureshave been developed,aimed at
directlydetectingthe ability to lead daily activitiesandrespondto stimuliand conditions(Williams,
1989, Guralnik,1989). Howeverwhen the healthstate does not dependonly on physical efficiency,
even these indicatorsmay be inadequate.
Other relevant examples may be drawn from the field of education and training.In this case,
the objectives of policy are often defined in terms of knowledge and competence or in terms of
employabilityand labor marketleverage, going beyond specific professionalskills and operational
abilities. Therefore,measuringthe effectivenessof trainingor educationrequiresa complex process
of conceptual refinementand testing. A furthercomplicationis the need to consider the impact of
the environmentand otherinterviewingfactors;isolating the incidence of a specific policy measure
and controllingfor side or unintendedeffects may be quite an impossible task.
Difficultiesmay become insurmountableif the conceptualworkis carriedout only at the empirical
level or worse as a matterof conventionalaccordsamongnomenclaturistsandstatisticians.As a matter
of fact, the distinctionbetween outcome and output,which is proving expedientand stimulatingin
specific fields of statisticalanalysis,mightlead to an excessive simplificationof the conceptof output,
and endangera separationof social policy analysis from the work carriedout in the economics of
services productionandexchange.When,for instance,Vittadinistatesthat"outputis the standardized
productof individualservices, measurableat a given time in termsof quantityand quality (e.g. the
numberof blood tests, the numberof studentsbeing examined,the efficiency of specific machinery
in taking medical tests, etc.)", he seems to adopt a narrowand limited definition of output, and
risks confusing the output of a given service with the productionprocess of the service itself. In
the nationalaccounts literature(see Hills, 1977 in particular),a "service"is defined as a change in
the state of a person or a good belonging to an economic unit, induced by the activity of another
economic unit; thereforethe outputmust be measuredby identifying the extent of such a change,
and not by looking at the activity of the provider."Theprocess of producinga service is the activity
which affects the person or good belonging to some economic unit, whereasthe outputitself is the
change in the condition of the personor good affected"(Hill, 1977, p. 318).
To a largeextent outputand outcomeoverlapand interact;they both identifya changeof state and
conditionof the benefit-holder;they differhoweverin theirdrawingattentionto a differenttime span
for the assessmentof the impactof a measure.Outputis evaluatedby comparingthe initial state with
the one immediatelyafterthe service was provided."Servicesare consumedas they are producedin
the sense that the change in the conditionof the consumerunit must occur simultaneouslywith the
productionof the change by the producer:they are one and the same change"(Hill, 1977, p. 337).
Therefore, output is measuredat the time in which the activity ends. The outcome, instead, is the
long-termresults;it can only be determinedafter some time following the completionof providing
the service.
But here is where theory must come to the rescue if progress is to be made. When and where
do we collect the relevant information?And what is most relevant?Without a well-established
theoreticalfoundation,the searchfor outcomes,and effectiveness,become unsustainable.When the
longitudinaldimension is introducedinto statisticalinformationsystems, and when those systems
need to dialogue and integrate,only a solid theoreticalperspectiveenables a viable and effective
investmentprogramin measurementand datacollection.
Data inadequacies,particularlylongitudinaldata and lack of integrationof survey and adminis-
trativefiles, are often pointedout as being a majorcause of difficultyfor social theoryadvancement

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60 P. GARONNAANDU. TRIACCA

and the assessment of social policy performance.However without social policy research and in-
vestmentin social analysis it would be practicallyimpossibleto fill the statisticalgaps. Paraphrasing
Thomas Jefferson we might say that we may measure a lot of aspects across different fields at a
given time, or a limited numberof focused (and theory-driven)aspects though time; but we cannot
measure everything everywhere always! Social theory must guide a bold and realistic statistical
policy reengineeringin the social field.

9 Partnership Between Official Statistics and Social Science

Other examples can be given to illustratehow, and why, measurementdifficulties are linked to
theoretical inadequaciesin social science; consider for instance the measurementof competence,
skills, humancapital and the outcome of investmentin educationand training;the measurementof
culturalidentities, ethnic or minoritystatus,social classes or groups,and the degree of cohesion or
integrationin a community;the measurementof values, beliefs and confidence, and of the shifts in
values; the measurementof poverty,social exclusion, the qualityof life and the urbanenvironment.
Many, if not most, of the widely discussed and controversialconcepts concerningsociety, social
policy andpeople's welfarearenot directlynoreasily observable;theyrequirea revampedinvestment
in measurementand theory.
Much has been said of the knowledge-basedeconomy and its vast requirementsof investmentin
science, technology and know-how.Much less diffused, however,is an awarenessthat the present
underinvestmentin measuring social phenomenais underminingthe response capacity and self-
confidence of societies themselves as they are confrontedwith the paramountchallenges of the
new world of global informationand social change. This paperhas intendedto show that within a
comprehensiveeffortto give social science its properplace anda leadingrole, a profoundadjustment
is also requiredin the strategiesof nationalstatisticalagencies (NSIs) and their relationshipwith
social research.First,NSIs areinvestingmorein improvingmeasurementtools and arrangementsfor
censuses andsocial surveys,integratingsurveyandadministrativedata,applyingnew datacapturing,
processinganddisseminationtechniques.Second,NSIs aredevotingmoreresourcesto the analysisof
social questions,using dataas inputto testmodels (e.g. microsimulation)andconceptualframeworks,
presentingthem in a comprehensibleform to the general public. NSIs have become the first users
of their own data, and are strengtheningtheir skills and role of social analysis. Third,this approach
leads NSIs to develop much closer ties with the researchcommunity,social science centers and
universities.These institutionsare consulted for the definitionof programsof statisticalactivities;
they are asked for transmissionof new results,frameworksand ideas which may be encapsulatedin
the design of informationsystems or in theirrestructuring;they are providedwith much more data,
particularlydisaggregateddata, for their empiricalwork. Partnershipin this context is a necessary
implicationbecause only joint researchprogramsallow the constraintsimposedby the stringencyof
confidentialityrules to be overcome while safeguardingthe concernsof respondents.Finally, NSIs
are opening up their work on statisticalconcepts, definitionsand classificationsin orderto involve
social science specialists, draw on best availabletheories and keep up to date with innovationin
social science researchand achievements.
Statistics are thereforebecoming active partnersin the world of social research,promotingand
supporting,using and questioning ongoing theoreticalwork. It is well known how much statistics
owes to social science, using it widely in the data productionprocess; it is less well understood
how much social science owes to statistics.Statisticsnot only providesvaluableempiricalevidence
against which theories can be tested, but also validatestheoreticalframeworksputtingthem to the
test of the measurementprocess. Theories, in fact, are the main ingredientsfor the constructionof
the conceptual frameworksunderlyingthe measurementof social phenomena.Their viability and
effectiveness in coping with the dynamismand comprehensivenatureof social change representsa

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 Social Change:Measurementand Theory 61

crucial test of theirvalidity.Theoriesarevalidatedby empiricaldata;butat the same time the quality

of data reflect the quality of the underlyingtheoreticalframework.
The statisticalgap, therefore,which revealsitself in the mismeasurementor difficultmeasurement
of social phenomenais closely interconnectedwith the social science gap. Only close collaboration
between statisticiansand social scientistscan bringaboutcontinuousadvancementsin social science
and quality improvementsin social statistics.

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Resumi
Le changementsociale, qui prendsdirectionset formesdiverseset qui ne peuten aucunefagonetre assimil6ou r6dui' une
seule dimension,est souventaccompagn6parla perceptiond'une comprehensioninsuffisanteet d'une manquede contr6le.II
y a un besoin frustr6de maitriserla complexit6et l'instabilit6,touten s6parantle volontairede l'involontaire,l'intentionneldu
non voulu, les opportunit6sdes risques,pourarriveraux causes r6elleset dominerles implicationsuncertainesdu changement
sociale. Le changementsociale nous prendsau d6pourvuet confus.
Dans ce contexte, la statistiqueest g6n6ralementconsideree un instrumentfondamentalde la connaissance,mais aussi
une partie meme du probleme! Dans les d6batspublics, ainsi que dans la literaturespecialisee, la capacit6de mesurerles
ph6nomenesau moyen de la statistiquecouranteet les indicateursvient de plus en plus mise en doute. Les donnees--on
dit-manquent, en particulierles donnees longitudinelles;leurqualit6(precision,pertinence,opportunit6,comparabilit6,etc.)
doit &tream61ioree;les indicateursne fournissentpas des signaux d'alerte precoce, ni l'6valuationde l'accQmplissement
des politiques, ni une indicationprecise des resultats.Donc, on ne peut pas se servir de la statistiquecomme base croyable
et opportunepour le processus decisionnel des individus, des organisationset de gouvernements,ni pour comprendeces
decisions. En quelques ca, la statistiquea 6t6 accusee de donnerune image trompeuseet fausse de la r6alit: est-ce que nous
measuronsl'extension r6elle de l'exclusion sociale et du ch6mage?Est-ce que nous capturonsentierementla qualit6de la vie

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62 P. GARONNA
ANDU. TRIACCA

et la d6gradationde l'environnement?La mauvaisemesure a 6t6 juge par quelques commentateurscomme la responsable

de la fausse mise au point de l'inflation et des politiques de stabilisation,de la science et de la technologie, du ch6mage et
de la pauvret6.Le paradoxede la productivit6,l'6conomie informelle,le d6fautde mesurerle bien-etreet la qualit6de la vie
urbaine,se sont des exemples oii la statistiquene semble pas apporterde r6ponses ' completes et satisfaisantesa la demande
d'informationet de connaissance.Notre these d6montreque, d'une faqontout fait independantedes mesurestechniqueset
des processusde productiondes donn6es,I'6tatincompletdu cadrecenceptuelpeutexpliquerla mauvaisemesurerelativement
a phenomenes sociaux complexes (multidimensionnels)et dynamiques.C'est alors aux theories sociales, aux explications
et aux interpr6tations,que les statisticiensdoivent se dirigerpouren venir aux prises avec les nouveauxd6fis de la mesure
sociale.
Nous d6velopperonscette these a l'aide de l'analyse de quelques cas oii la question de la mesure peut se rapportera~des
difficult6saussi bien theoretiquesque empiriques.Le troustatistique,qui se fait danc connaitreaitraversla mauvaisemesure
ou la mesure difficile des phenomenessociaux, est 6troitementli6 au trou de la science sociale. Seulementla collaboration
entre les statisticienset les sanvantssociaux peut amenerun progrescontinu de la science sociale et une amel1ioration de la
qualit6de la statistiquesociale.

[ReceivedSeptember1997, accepted July 1998]

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