Results in Engineering 13 (2022) 100353

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Results in Engineering
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Evaluation of gene expression programming and artificial neural networks

in PyTorch for the prediction of local scour depth around a bridge pier
Waqed H. Hassan a, *, H.H. Hussein b, Musa H. Alshammari a, Halah K. Jalal c, Sajjad E. Rasheed c
a
Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, University of Kerbala, Kerbala, Iraq
b
Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, University of Warith Al-Anbiyaa, Kerbala, Iraq
c
Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, University of Kerbala, Kerbala, Iraq

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Local scouring around the piers of bridges has been identified as one of the main problems contributing to bridge
Artificial neural networks failure globally. As such, the accurate prediction of safe scouring depths is crucial to assure safety and to develop
Dimensional analysis effective maintenance routines. This study was thus intended to develop a new empirical equation and models to
Gene expression programming
expect the depth of scour occurring around the pier of a bridge by utilising and assessing a variety of modelling
Non-linear regression (NLR)
Python
proposals to develop the best possible performance. Three methods were used for this purpose: artificial neural
PyTorch networks (ANN), gene expression programming (GEP), and statistical non-linear regression (NLR). The ANN
Scour depth prediction model used in this study was coded in Python, a major modern coding language, being based on the PyTorch
interface. The empirical equations and models derived to predict local scour depth were all amended to incor­
porate the shape of the pier, flow depth, flow intensity, pier width and the attack angle based on data computed
within a numerical simulation model in Flow-3D software. The performance of the functional relationship
derived from the GEP approach was then compared to the results computed from both the ANN model and NLR
empirical equation, with three statistical indices: root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE)
and coefficient of determination (R2), as well as appropriate scatter plots used to identify the most efficient of the
three models. Based on this comparison, the ANN model performed more accurately than the other two empirical
equations derived from the NLR and GEP models based on its smaller values for MAE (0.012) and RMSE (0.029),
and its greater R2 value (0.969). Sensitivity analysis results from the model also suggest that flow depth has the
most significant impact on depth of scour predictions for compared to different input variables in this model.
Based on the results, it can be concluded that the performance of the equation obtained from the ANN-based
PyTorch technique is more accurate in predicting the scour depth than GEP and NLR.

1. Introduction and from different perspectives.

One of the most significant issues concerning the administration of
rivers is the topic of river flow and related problems such as flooding,
transportation of sediment, deformation of riverbeds, and scouring [1].
Scouring is defined as the process of erosion caused by flowing water,
which wears away and removes materials from the beds and banks of
rivers, particularly in the areas surrounding the piers of bridges and
various abutments [2]. Scouring around bridge piers has been identified
as one of the main reasons for failure in bridges besides overload and
impact, and it may thus result in huge losses of life and severe economic
impact [3]. The problem of scouring has therefore been studied exten­
sively by several contemporary researchers under varying conditions
Hydraulic and infrastructure engineers consider riverbed degrada­
tion and deformation in terms of their effects on important design pa­
rameters. The existence of bridges as hydraulic structures that obstruct
the flow of water causes increases in flow velocity due to flow
contraction and scouring, particularly near abutments and around
bridge piers [4]. Large bridges cost billions of dollars, which readily
justifies working to develop accurate predictions of their likely scour
depth for both safety and economic purposes. Over-predicted or
under-predicted depth of scour could, however, lead to a rise in the
likelihood of bridge collapse or increase the cost of bridge construction.
There is thus some controversy and uncertainty about the prediction of
scour, as many of the failures in modern bridges have resulted from a

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: waaqidh@uokerbala.edu.iq, waqed2005@yahoo.com (W.H. Hassan).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2022.100353
Received 26 November 2021; Received in revised form 18 January 2022; Accepted 25 January 2022
Available online 28 January 2022
2590-1230/© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
W.H. Hassan et al.
Fig. 1. Flowchart represented the outline of the research.
shortage of detailed information concerning the scouring problem.
There are also few records of scouring for specific bridges, restricting the
ability to make sound comparisons to information computed by various
prediction techniques.
Different approaches have evolved to predict the scouring depth
under these uncertain conditions described, using multiple approaches
which tend to address some, but not all of the conditions that may
dictate the depth of the scour that will occur [5,6]. The scour mecha­
nisms around a bridge pier are generally extremely complicated, making
hard to obtain a common expression approach to expect the scour depth
about a pier under varying field conditions; in particular, factors such as
pier width, flow intensity, flow level, angle of attack and shape of the
pier are all critical to such predictions. Numerous predictive equations
identified by previous studies have thus been evolved using conven­
tional regression to utilise experimental and field information on these
factors [7–10]. Melville and Sutherland’s equation tends to over-predict
scour depth more than any other formula, however, as highlighted by
Johnson [11], and more recently [12], showed that the Richardson and
Davis [13] model introduced logical predictions, while the work of Jain
and Fischer [14,15] over-predicted scour depth values about bridge
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Results in Engineering 13 (2022) 100353
piers. These assessments arose from a comparison of bridge pier scour
equations utilising experiments and field information. These discrep­
ancies have arisen as several of the investigators noted evolved their
equations for scouring depth by means of dimensional analysis in
conjunction with non-linear regression analysis; this technique is not
very precise and also requires lengthy calculations that are prone to
error. This process is thus potentially redundant in the modern world, as
much greater soft calculational expertise has emerged alongside artifi­
cial intelligence techniques (AI) that allow modelling to be more easily
and accurately carried out with less effort [16–21].
Inductive modelling techniques that depend on artificial intelligence
(AI), which have been extensively detailed in the previous studies, are
now utilized widely to simulate complex response functions such as pier
scour, depend on the development of strong, non-linear model frame­
works and the ability to portray the cause and effect connections un­
derlying such operations. These AI techniques utilise technologies that
are incorporate adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), artifi­
cial neural networks, genetic programming (GP) and Gene Expression
Programming [22–27]. Together, these provide suitable results after
complicated response function modelling, including the modelling
W.H. Hassan et al. Results in Engineering 13 (2022) 100353

Fig. 2. Flow and local scouring around a circular bridge pier.

required for the depth of scour about piers of a bridge, based on data 2. Materials and methodology
collected either in the laboratory or in the field. For hydraulic design
cases that require the application of non-linear and highly complex 2.1. Dimensional analysis
functions, neural networks have been found to supply particularly
rational and acceptable solutions [28–31]. The Gene Expression Pro­ The depth of local scouring about a bridge pier in a steady state flow
gramming computing method has also been found to be more effective condition, given a uniform bed and non-cohesive sediments under clear
than many previous methods due to the simplicity of its coding, ease of water conditions, can be calculated based on numerous variables. In
modelling, and rapid computation. Many ensuing studies covering a order to determine the relationship function of the depth of scouring, it
range of engineering fields have also illustrated its precision and func­ is thus necessary to determine which of these parameters most directly
tionality, which exceed those of previously recommended methods control the depth of scouring and the bed elevations downstream and
[32–34]. Moreover, there are numerous recent studies done by the re­ upstream of the pier, as illustrated in Fig. 2.
searchers [35,36], using deep learning artificial intelligence models like, In this study, the parameters with the most significant effects on local
(ANNs), (ANFIS), (GEP) and group methods of data handling (GMDH) to scouring depth were identified as flow variables (V,y), fluid variables (g,
predict the local scour depth at bridge pier and compared the predicted ρ), bed sediment variables (d50 , ρs , Vc ), pier variables (b, L, Ks ,Kθ), flume
model with traditional equation from the previous studies. The results geometry (B), and time (t). Scour depth (ds) can thus be described as a
from these AI illustrated that have the higher performance of prediction function of these variables, presented as [15].
local scour depth at bridge pier as compared with previous studies. The
ds = f (ρ, V, y, g, ρs , d50 , Vc , B, b, L, Ks , Kθ, t) (1)
public application of AI in water resources and hydraulic engineering,
that provided good effective models that compared it with traditional
where ds: maximum scour depth, ρ represents density of fluid, ν is the
techniques like those based on non-linear regression.
water kinematic viscosity, V is the flow velocity of approaches, y is the
Previous studies have shown that the numerical analysis of depth of
flow depth in river, g is the acceleration of gravitational, ρs is the density
scouring relies on AI approaches in general, and GEP more specifically,
of bed sediment, d50 is the median size of sediment in the bed, Vc is the
which have nevertheless not been widely applied; this emphasises the
critical approach velocity, B is the river width, b is the diameter of the
need for the current study. The major objective of this research is to
pier, L is the length of the pier, Ks is the shape factor representing the
evolve a new formula to compute depth of scour by applying three
pier geometry, Kθ is the flow alignment correlation coefficient, and t
different prediction methods, GEP, ANN and NLR, with parameters
represents the flow duration. In this study, several different pier shapes
based on pier shape, pier width ratio, flow intensity, depth of flow ratio,
were utilized, including rectangular, square, elliptic, circular, ogival,
and attack angle derived from numerical model computation. The per­
oblong, hexagonal, octagonal, and lenticular shapes, all of which can be
formance of the proposed GEP approach can then be compared with that
represented by the Ks variable in the equation. These shapes affect the
of the ANN based PyTorch technique and the NLR model. In the present
flow in terms of their different angles of alignment, and these angles are
study three predicting modelling techniques are used, GEP, ANN based
represented by the Kθ variable in the development formula for scour
PyTorch and NLR to predict the local scouring depth occurred at
depth. For all cases in the current research, the flow time was fixed to 30
different shapes of the bridge pier and under different flow conditions
min, creating a constant; the t term was thus ignored. In addition, as only
depending on the data obtained from numerical simulation by Flow-3D.
one type of sediment layer was used, the terms d50 and ρs were also
This dataset was divided into training and validation datasets to build
removed.
and test the predicting model. Five dimensionless parameters; pier
Dimensional analysis was used on the fourteen-dimensional param­
shape, pier width ratio, flow intensity, depth of flow ratio, and attack
eters in Eq. (1) using Buckingham’s π-theorem to abbreviate to it to six
angle have the most significant effect on scour depth according to the
dimensionless variables; b, V, and ρ were thus set a repeat parameters
dimensional analysis. In predicting the model, scour depth ratio is used
and t, ρs , d50 , and ρ as constants, so their influence can be neglected.
as the output parameter, while the other dimensionless parameters are
Equation (2) thus represents the relationship that characterises the effect
used as input. The best predicting techniques for the local scouring
of the dimensionless variables on the depth of scour around a pier:
depth is selected according to the statistical measurement RMSE, R2 and
( )
MAE. The most sensitive parameter that needs more attention in future ds V B y
=f , , , Ks , Kθ (2)
studies is determined according to the sensitivity analysis. The outlines b Vc b b
of this study are illustrated in Fig. 1.
where dbs is the scour depth ratio, VVc represents flow intensity, Bb is the pier

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W.H. Hassan et al.
Table 1
Summary of statistical values of data utilized in the learning and testing of GEP, ANN, and NLR.
Parameters Minimum Median Maximum
V/Vc 0.55 0.76 1.00
y/b 0.20 0.98 2.95
b/B 0.11 0.15 0.20
Ks 0.71 1.00 1.26
Kθ 1.00 1.50 1.68
ds/b 0.00 0.61 1.88
width ratio, and yb the flow depth ratio. In current research, the
dimensionless variables outline in Eq. (2) were thus utilized as input and
output variables for ANN, GEP and NLR modelling, with only one var­
iable, scour depth ratio (dbs ), acting as an output variable, and all of the
others being used as input parameters.
2.2. Numerical simulation data
The issue of local scouring about different shapes of piers under
different situations was studied numerically using Flow-3D to illustrate
the maximum depth of scour, as thus is the critical parameter in the
design of a bridge. The results take the form of more than 700 points
generated through numerical modelling of the scour depth around the
bridge pier [37]. This dataset was then divided randomly into two
datasets, one consisting of 95% of the data, which was used to generate
the model in a training format, while the other 5% was placed in the
group used to validate and test the model. The limits of the different
parameters are summarised in Table 1. The full data group (729) ob­
tained from the numerical simulation was then modelled using three
different statistical software packages, ANN, GEP, and NLR to produce a
fuller mathematical model to predict the maximum ratio of scour depth
(ds/b) at the pier of the bridge and to identify the approach that best
predicts the relative scour depth based on three statistical indices: R2,
RMSE and MAE.
2.3. Gene expression programming (GEP)
Gene expression programming is a modern approach depend on the
development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), which itself was developed
initially by Ref. [38] as an extension of the genetic programming out­
lined by Ref. [39]. This incorporated both linear simple chromosomes of
constant length, like those utilized in genetic algorithms (Gas), which
are called genomes, and divaricated structures of various shapes and
sizes, which are presented as expression trees (ETs) in forms that
resemble tree analysis. GEP incorporates the advantages of both GP and
GA while removing some of the restrictions of these approaches [38].
GEP thus offers a complete genotype/phenotype system with expression
trees of various different shapes and sizes encoded in linear chromo­
somes of constant length. The main objective of the process is to create a
numerical equation that can be adjusted to the data group supplied to
generate a more accurate GEP model. GEP analysis for this numerical
formula thus utilises figurative regression that employs most of the ge­
netic parameters required for GA.
GEP begins with a randomised initial population (chromosomes) of a
specific size. Each of these chromosomes is then assessed against a
selected function (fitness function) over various groups of fitness situa­
tions. The chromosomes are then selected according to their fitness
value, with those demonstrating best “goodness of fit” having the op­
portunity to progress to the following generation. As the chromosomes
are selected, any modifications which have been made are reproduced
by various genetic operators, including mutation, Insertion Sequence
(IS) transposition, inversion, gene transposition, and gene recombina­
tion [38]. discussed the genetic modification of chromosomes through
the use of operators, highlighting that the most efficient genetic factor is
a mutation; this is thus the only adjustment method applied across all
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Results in Engineering 13 (2022) 100353
Mean Standard Deviation Variation coefficient
0.77 0.18 0.23
1.38 1.15 0.83
0.15 0.04 0.27
0.96 0.16 0.17
1.33 0.26 0.19
0.63 0.48 0.76
GEP and GA methods. The adjustment operation is repeated either for
pre-specified generations number or till a result that meets the relevant
is found. GeneXproTools 5.0 was utilized in this work to evolve
GEP-depend models based on straightforward mathematical de­
scriptions of the pier bridge scour model. A problem to be solved using
GEP in this way utilises symbolic regression (function finding) to obtain
an expression that adequately explains the dependent parameters, in this
case, scour depth.
2.4. Artificial neural network model
ANNs are flexible, mathematical architectures capable of charac­
terising the complicated non-linear functions relating various input and
output data groups. ANN simulation models have been found to be both
useful and effective especially where it is complicated to characterise the
features of various operations utilising mathematical formulations [40,
41]. ANNs can thus be utilized as a prediction technology to obtain the
depth of scour based on building a multilayer, feed-forward network. An
ANN begins with random plotting between input and output parameters,
and usually includes three main neurons layers, which are the input
layer, a hidden layer, and an output layer, in which each element of
neuron acts as a separate computational node. The ANN model used in
this study was coded in Python, based on the PyTorch interface.
PyTorch is a deep learning and machine learning instrument evolved
by the artificial intelligence department at Facebook in order to handle
large-scale picture analysis; its functions thus include object discovery,
classification, and division. However, it is not restricted to these tasks,
and it may be applied in conjunction with other tools to assess complex
algorithms. It is written in Python and C++, and thus, to handle large
scale calculations in a GPU environment, requires some modification.
PyTorch nevertheless supplies an excellent framework for writing
functions to be automated in such GPU environments.
The power of artificial neural networks stems from the high degree of
freedom connected to their underlying architectures. Before imple­
mentation, the neural network is “taught” by means of available data
sets to create a flexible network with input and output couples based on
the magnitudes of various connection weights, centres or biases within
the data [42]. The framework of the three layers in the usual ANN
approach contains many cells. Each cell of the input layer (first layer)
takes the input data for each variable, which is then multiplied by the
corresponding selected weight and the new values of the element are
then conveyed to the appropriate element in the hidden layer (second
layer) so that the appropriate activation (transformation) function can
be applied. The results are then transferred from the second layer
(hidden layer) to the third layer (output) data layer based on multiplying
the result of each element in the second layer by the weight of the
corresponding link between the second (hidden) elements and the third
(output) results. The third (final) layer then produces the output data of
the neural network for further data handling. The neural network output
at this point can be compared to the actual output value (goal) to
compute the percentage of deviation, and the result is considered to be
correct where the corresponding error rate is acceptable. If the error rate
is not acceptable, the communication weights can be modified from the
final (output) layer and spread backwards, and when the weights are
adjusted, a new cycle can begin, until accurate training is complete. The
W.H. Hassan et al. Results in Engineering 13 (2022) 100353

Table 2 realistic model. Within the modelling process, six major steps were thus
Parameters used to predict the depth of scour around a bridge pier by the identified that could be used to prepare the GEP model to expect scour
GEP model. depth at a pier of bridge mathematically.
Parameters Values In the first step of GEP modelling, the initial population of the
Chromosomes number 50
chromosome was randomly generated by the software. Each chromo­
Set of function +, -, *,/, power some consists of one or more numbers of genes that are expressed as
RNC 5 mathematical formulas, and during modelling, any number of chromo­
Type of RNC Floating point somes can be used. However [38], stated that increasing in the number
RNC range [10, − 10]
of chromosomes from 30 to 100 provided the best results as demon­
Head length 8
Genes number 3 strated by an increase in R2 value, although further increases in chro­
Function of linking + mosome numbers above 100 reduced both the possibility of success and
Function of fitness RMSE R2 value, due to the subsequent reduction in memory space. The chro­
Mutation rate 0.033 mosome number for this work was thus set to 50 chromosomes, after
Inversion rate 0.08
IS transposition rate 0.08
several trials of numbers between 30 and 100, which produced accept­
RIS transposition rate 0.08 able results.
Gene transposition rate 0.08 After selection of the number of chromosomes, the second step is the
One-point recombination rate 0.08 selection of head size (h) and the genes number in each chromosome
Two-point recombination rate 0.4
[46]. observed that h size is the most effective parameter in GEP
Gene recombination rate 0.4
Dc-specific mutation rate 0.033 modelling, as increases in h size cause the R2 value to decrease due to the
Dc-specific inversion rate 0.08 resulting shortened equation lengths. Based on [38], increasing the
Dc-specific IS transposition rate 0.1 genes number in the chromosome from 1 to 3 increases the chance of
Random fixed mutation rate 0.008 success of the model, however. For the current model, and after several
initial trials, the head size was set equal to 8 with a gene number equal to
principles of ANN have been presented by many researchers, such as 3. As this caused three genes to be selected in each chromosome, the
[43–45]. resulting equation for the sub-expression trees (sub-ET) was connected
by the use of additional operators (+) as a connecting function.
The third step is to choose the fitness function that helps the GEP
3. Application depth scour modelling
model determine the best problem solution. The fitness function of each
chromosome was calculated based on minimum RMSE in current study.
3.1. GEP approach
The fourth stage is to determine the rate of genetic operators, and the
group of genetic operators that made the greatest difference to the GEP
The main goal of developing the GEP approach was to establish a
model, along with their rates, is illustrated in Table 2. The random nu­
mathematical function to expect the scour depth at the pier of bridge
merical constant (RNC) was then defined in the next step, where five
taking the independent parameters into account. For the current study,
RNC per gene were used in the form of a floating-point defined in the
the modelling of the depth of scour using GEP was thus begun using all
range − 10 to +10.The final step is represented by the selection of the
available datasets (n = 729) obtained from the simulation of scour at a
mathematical function (F) used to form the final equation: for the cur­
bridge pier in Flow-3D software. The parameters Kθ, yb , Ks , Bb , VVc rent model, four basic mathematical functions along with power were
were used to develop a scour depth model, representing the independent activated in this step (+, -, *,/, power). After the determination of all
input parameters, while the depth of scour (dbs ) was the dependent output genetic variables, the model was run in GeneXproTools 5.0. The soft­
parameter developed using GEP. When building the model, 95% of the ware is generally run for multiple generations, stopping when it reaches
data (about 693 observation) were utilized for learning (training) the the maximum fitness function of 1,000, where maximum fitness func­
GEP model, while the other remaining data 5% (approximately 36 tion is selected as a stop condition. A run can also be terminated if no
points) were utilized to teste (validate) the GEP model. These divisions development is observed in the value of the fitness function (RMSE) or
were chosen by the GEP model randomly throughout the training and the statistical coefficients between iterations. In the current study, no
validation process. After the division of the data, various combinations significant change occurred after 20,754 generations. Over 10 trials, the
of the control parameters were identified to help develop a more maximum fitness of the ds/b values for training and validation sets were
857.42 and 852.68, respectively.

3.2. ANN model

In this study, ANN was used within PyTorch to create a nonlinear

Fig. 3. The architecture of the ANN model based PyTorch program with 16
hidden layers used in study.
simulation to expect the depth of scour about the pier of bridge depend
on the available learning (training) and validation (testing) values.
Preparing information for deep learning algorithms can be a compli­
cated matter in and of itself. PyTorch supplies numerous useful classes
that eliminate many of the complications, however, such as data-
augmenting, data-parallelisation through multi-threading, and batch­
ing. The Excel file containing the initial data was converted to.csv
format and imported to the model using the Pandas Python library, and
all dependent libraries were also installed as well, including Matplotlib,
NumPy, and Torchvision. The same distribution of data as applied in the
GEP model was used for ANN under the PyTorch model, so the data was
split into 95% learning and 5% validating groups.
Out of the total 729 data sets, 693 (approximately 95%) were thus
used to learn the neural network, while the other remaining 36 (5%)
were utilized for validating or testing the network predictions. As the

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W.H. Hassan et al. Results in Engineering 13 (2022) 100353

Fig. 4. The Expression Trees (ET) of GEP which utilized to obtain the depth of scour model.

y
model is initiated with random values, the initial parameters, Kθ, b , backward function is called, however, the gradients are empty; the
Ks , B
and V ds gradients are thus zeroed only when they are set to none. The number of
b, Vc will result in a b pred value that will not be anywhere
epochs or iterations was initially set to 1,000,000, with a learning rate of
close to the observed value of dbs .
A function thus needs to be defined to
0.05; the number of hidden layers was set to 16, as shown in Fig. 3. For
allow the model to assess how close its predictions are to the observed
every 10,000 epochs, dbs pred vs dbs test figures were drawn to show the
values to make ongoing corrections. As this is a non-linear regression
progress of the model.
problem, a loss function, mean square error (MSE) was used for this
purpose. This is the sum of the squared differences between the pre­
dicted variable and target values, though the torch.nn library offers 4. Results of the predictive models
various other loss functions, such as RELU and cross-entropy loss. Apart
from calculating the loss, a backward process, which calculates the 4.1. GEP model
gradients of the learnable variables is applied. As the loss function is
utilized repeatedly, all previously calculated gradients must also be The GEP equation for scour depth (ds/b) around the pier was
removed by calling the grad.data.zero(0) process. The first time the developed as a function of the expression tree (ET) (Equation (3)). The
corresponding expression tree is explained further in Fig. 4.

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W.H. Hassan et al. Results in Engineering 13 (2022) 100353

Table 3 with the value of MSE decreasing by a large percentage of around 90% as
Variable’s definition. a result of increasing the epochs from 10,000 to 1,000,000. Fig. 6 (a, b)
Variables Definition show the level of improvement in the values of the other statistical pa­
rameters, especially R2, as a result of this increase in the number of it­
d0 V/Vc
d1 y/b erations. All of these results ultimately support obtaining the best
d2 b/B possible predictive model through one of the most important modern
d3 KS methods of deep learning.
d4 Kθ For both the hidden layers and outputs, the sigmoid activated func­
C1 6.252
tion was utilized to model the transformation of values across the layers,
as shown in Eq. (4).
ds 1
b
= (d1 ∗d2 )∗[d0 ∗(d0 − d1 + d3 )] + (d0 ∗d2 )∗[d1 ∗(6.525 − d1 − d3 ]
(3) f (x) = (4)
[ ] (1 + e− x )
+ (d1 ∗d2 )∗ d3 2 ∗d0 ∗d4
The training rate and momentum coefficient values were determined
Table 3 illustrates the definitions of the variables utilized in Eq. (3). by the trial-and-error approach. The step size, also known as the learning
The scour depth predicted by the GEP formula using training and rate, is the operator that locates how much the contact weight changes
testing data was compared graphically to the depth of scour as based on the error gradient information, while the momentum factor
measured, shown in Fig. 5 (a) and (b) for learning(training) and vali­ influences the equation by adding a percentage of the previous variable
dation (testing) data, respectively. Overall, the prediction of depth of weight to the present variable weight during training.
scour by GEP offered well agreement with the observed data. Fig. 5 (c)
displays the process of converging the solution over a number of itera­ 4.3. NLR model
tions in the GEP suggested model during the test phase, and it is evident
from this figure that the convergence between the predicted solution The third predictive model used in this study was the non-linear
and the observed data increases clearly after around twenty iterations regression model (NLR). The same dividing ratio for datasets as uti­
till it reaches the best possible target value in iteration number 36. lized to construct the GEP and ANN models was also used within the NLR
model, and the formula in Eq. (5) was thus obtained to predict the scour
depth ratio (ds/b) as a function of five independent parameters (V/Vc,
4.2. ANN approach
y/b, b/B, Kθ, Ks).
The figures at the 10,000 and the 1,000,000 were presented in the
code, as shown in Fig. 6 (a), (b) and (c). These figures show a very clear
improvement in the results as the number of epochs increases (Fig. 6, c),

Fig. 5. a) Measured versus predicted scour depth ratios (ds/b) for the GEP model (learning data). b) Measured versus predicted scour depth ratios (ds/b) for the GEP
model (validation data). c) Convergence series between predicted ds/b of GEP model versus measured for testing data.

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W.H. Hassan et al. Results in Engineering 13 (2022) 100353

Fig. 6. a) Predicted ds/b of ANN model versus measured one for learning data (1000 epochs). b) Predicted ds/b of ANN model versus measured one for testing data
(1,000,000 epochs). c) Convergence series between predicted ds/b of ANN model versus measured one after 1,000,000 epochs (iteration) for testing data.

Table 4 Table 5
The results of the input parameters sensitivity analysis regarding the validation Results of statistical indexes for the learning and validation groups data for GEP,
data. ANN and NLR.
Models of GEP Model variables R2 RMSE Models Learning Validation
( )
Model 1 ds y B V 0.891 0.152 R2 RMSE MAE R2 RMSE MAE
= f Kθ , , Ks , ,
b b b Vc
( ) GEP 0.880 0.166 0.131 0.891 0.172 0.133
Model 2 ds y B 0.723 0.257
= f Kθ , , Ks , ANN 0.923 0.131 0.096 0.969 0.029 0.012
b b b
( ) NLR 0.842 0.175 0.144 0.858 0.170 0.131
Model 3 ds y V 0.746 0.205
= f Kθ , , Ks ,
b b Vc
( )
Model 4 ds y B V 0.878 0.17
b
= f Kθ , ,
b b Vc
, Many operators influence the predicted depth of scour at bridge piers,
Model 5 ds
(
y B V
)
0.849 0.189 including flow depth, width of pier, shape of pier, mean flow velocity,
=f , Ks , ,
b
(
b b Vc
) and flow attack angle, and various input combinations of these were also
Model 6 ds B V 0.327 0.399 examined, as illustrated in Table 4. This was done by removing one input
= f Kθ , Ks , ,
b b Vc
variable at each attempt, with the resulting impact on the predictable
depth of scour in terms of the determination coefficient (R2) evaluated as
the main performance criteria. The results in Table 4 thus indicate that
ds V y b
= − 1.070 + 1.613* + 0.419* + 1.899* − 0.649*Kθ + 0.180* KS depth of flow (y/b) has the most significant influence in terms of pre­
b VC b B
dicting the scour depth as compared to other input variables (RMSE =
V2
0.339, R2 = 0.327); it thus supersedes many other input parameters that
y2
− 0.783* − 0.279*
VC b
do not have a significant impact on scour depth predictions.
(5)
6. Discussion
5. Sensitivity analysis
This part of the study aims to evaluate, compare and discuss the
Sensitivity analyses were conducted for the GEP model to identify performance of the different methods used, particularly the nonlinear
the impact of each input variable on the predicted scour depth as a regression model generated to expect the local depth of scour around the
means to facilitate selection of the most sensitive parameter(s), which bridge pier. The performance of the three different methods was thus
will thus require more detailed and focused attention in future work. examined against three statistical verification indexes, R2, RMSE, and

8
W.H. Hassan et al.
Fig. 7. Measured versus predicted scour depth ratios (ds/b) for the NLR model, a) training data, b) testing data.
Fig. 8. Scatter plot for the GEP, ANN and NLR models (validation data).
MAE. The predicted scour depth ratio (ds/b) obtained using the ANN-
based PyTorch, GEP and NLR models were then compared to the
computed depth of scour ratio, and the performance of each method
analyzed by calculating the statistical index values for local scouring
using the three different methods, as illustrated in Table 5. As noted,
small values of RMSE and MAE denote good performance, and based on
this, the ANN PyTorch code model outperformed the other two models,
providing good scores across all statistical indices at RMSE = 0.029, R2
= 0.969 and MAE = 0.012. The GEP based on Eq. (3) offered reasonable
performance (RMSE = 0.172, R2 = 0.891and MAE = 0.133), but this was
lower that of the ANN model, and the NLR model (Eq. (5)) was even less
effective (RMSE = 0.170 R2 = 0.858 and MAE = 0.131). The scatterplots
for the learning and validating results for the GEP, ANN, and NLR
models are presented in Fig. 5(a and b), 6(a,b) and 7(a,b).
The scatterplots of estimated (training dataset and testing dataset)
versus measured values were then used to survey the similarity degree
between the predicted and measured values. This denoted that the ANN
model performed better than the GEP and NLR approaches, producing
greater values of R2 and smaller values for MAE and RMSE as compared
to GEP and NLR. The ANN-based PyTorch model performed much better
than GEP and NLR, according to the scatter plots, as seen in Fig. 8, which
represents the comparison between GEP, ANN, and NLR models visually.
It is thus obvious from this figure that the three studied techniques
demonstrate two main behaviours, one with very good expectation ef­
ficiency, which is located on the first half of the horizontal axis (x-axis),
while the second, with relatively less accuracy, is existed in the second
half of the horizontal axis, where ds/b is greater than one. These results
could have arisen because of the effects of the turbulent waves that are
generated with an increase in velocity often associated with increased
depth of local scour at a fixed diameter of pier. This creates vortices and
turbulent waves, yet these parameters were not taken into account when
the models were developed, potentially decreasing predictive accuracy.
A The ANN-based PyTorch model nevertheless provides a very accurate
prediction model as compared with the other two techniques. The GEP
9
Results in Engineering 13 (2022) 100353
and NLR equations are thus not as efficient as the ANN-based PyTorch
model, though they may produce reasonably good results. Based on the
above results, it has been shown that artificial intelligence provides an
accurate prediction of scour depth at bridge pier, which provides a good
agreement with result finding by the researchers [46–48].
7. Conclusion
Local scouring around bridge piers is both complex and difficult to
measure; nevertheless, the depth of scouring needs to be predicted
accurately for safety purposes. This study tested the ability of GEP, ANN,
and NLR to generate mathematical models to predict the local depth of
scouring using data obtained from a numerical simulation by Flow 3D.
The ANN model used in the study was coded in Python, utilising
PyTorch technology. The GEP model performed better than the con­
ventional NLR model; however, the selected statistical measures
(Table 5) showed that the GEP model’s performance was lower than that
of the ANN model, with ANN producing a greater value for R2 (0.969)
and smaller values for MAE (0.012) and RMSE (0.029). However,
despite the ANN model performs somewhat better than the GEP model,
it does not offer any explicit mathematical expressions that may be used
by bridge engineers. In contrast, the GEP model produces an explicit and
compact formula that can be utilized by bridge designers in their work,
as well as adequate predictive results; this suggests that the GEP model is
an effective modelling tool for estimating the depth of local scour in
practical terms, providing easy and simple to use empirical expressions
for modelled response functions.
The GEP equation (Eq. (3)) can help the designer engineer of the
bridge pier to identify the local scour depth under the limitation of this
study. For this study, the limitation of parameters was; flow intensity
(0.55–1), pier width ratio (0.11–0.2), flow depth ratio (0.2–2.95), pier
shapes factor (0.71–1.26) and angle of alignment (1.00–1.68). The
sensitivity analysis results also demonstrated that the ratio of flow depth
(y/b) variable has the most effect on depth of scour prediction among
the various input variables. The ANN model performed more accurately
than the other two empirical equations derived from the NLR and GEP
models based on statistical results. The main recommendation for future
studies is to develop Eq. (3) to include the effect of other parameters like;
canal width, sediment size and bed sediment in order to study their
impact on scour depth.
Credit author statement
W⋅H.H. supervised, analyzed the data, wrote the first draft, and
revise the successive drafts of the manuscript. H.H.H. Resources; Soft­
ware. M.H.A. Project administration. H.K.J. conceived the study and
wrote the first draft; Methodology. S.E.R. Software.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
W.H. Hassan et al.
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
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